截至 2026 年 2 月 26 日，据长江有色金属网获悉，长江现货 1# 锡报价区间 414250-416250 元 / 吨，均 价 415250 元 / 吨，单日暴涨 11500 元，强势站上 41 万关口。在节后复工提速、全球宏观情绪回暖的双 重驱动下，锡价迎来 "开门红"，但涨幅受限的背后，是供需博弈与外部风险的多重拉扯。本文结合当 日锡市行情、宏观动向及产业逻辑，拆解锡价上涨的核心驱动，为回收商与投资者提供实操参考。 一、价格表现：单日暴涨 11500 元，锡价站上 41 万关口 2 月 26 日，锡价迎来节后最强单日涨幅，长江现货 1# 锡均价跳涨至 415250 元 / 吨，较前一交易日大 涨 11500 元，涨幅近 2.86%。从日内走势看，锡价开盘即跳空高开，依托 41 万关口强势上行，现货市 场 "有货难求"，贸易商惜售情绪浓厚，下游企业询盘踊跃，成交氛围显著升温。 但值得注意的是，锡价涨幅并未延续早盘的强势，午后有所收窄，呈现 "冲高回落" 态势，显示市场在 41 万关口存在明显分歧，短期上涨动能有所衰减。 二、核心驱动：供应收缩 + 宏观利好，涨幅受限源于需求现实 涨幅受限的关键因素 ...

重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-31.93美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-120元/吨至24530元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-45元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-120元/吨至24490元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-115元/ 吨；天津锌现货价较前一交易日-110元/吨至24500元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-75元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-25沪锌主力合约开于24515元/吨，收于24645元/吨，较前一交易日-10元/吨，全天交易日成交52469 手，全天交易日持仓26600手，日内价格最高点达到24705元/吨，最低点达到24455元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-26 现货市场恢复尚需时间 库存方面：截至2026-02-25，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为20.97万吨，较上期变化4.94万吨。截止2026-02-25，LME 锌库存为99825吨，较上一交易日变化-1425吨。 市场分析 节后现货市场成交情况仍需时间，下游尚在放假期间，现货升贴水难有表现。海外不确定扰动仍然存在，地缘政 治危机、关税调整以及降息大周期不改，同时需要警惕矿产资源保护风险外 ...

有色金属日报 2026-2-26 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上海出台地产"沪七条"，国内权益市场继续反弹，叠加资源民族主义担忧，铜价走升，昨日伦铜 3M 合约上涨 1.17%至 13349 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 102620 元/吨。昨日 LME 库存增加 6475 至 249650 吨，增量主要来自北美仓库，注销仓单比例提高，Cash/3M 维持贴水。国内上期所日度仓单 增加 1.1 至 28.8 万吨。华东地区现货由升水转为贴水期货 180 元/吨，下游陆续入市采购，成交回 暖，但供应较多导致基差报价走弱。广东地区铜现货贴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Silver: Cautious, advised to be cautious about chasing high prices [1] - Copper: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Zinc: Cautious bullish, advised to be cautious about going long [1] - Lead: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Tin: Bullish, expected to be strong [1] - Aluminum: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Nickel: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish, advised to try long positions with a light position [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish, expected to be under pressure [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks such as US tariff fluctuations and the Iran situation provide support for gold. In the long - term, central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its strategic allocation value. Silver's industrial demand is increasing, and its financial hedging attributes are strengthened, but short - term participation is difficult [1][3]. - The relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai boosts the property market, and with the approaching of the peak consumption season and the Two Sessions, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term and remain optimistic in the long - term [1][5][7]. - The supply and demand of zinc are both weak, and inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish and wait for more macro guidance [1][8][10]. - The cost of alumina has stabilized at a low level. Although inventory has accumulated, the resumption of downstream enterprises after the holiday is expected to drive the short - term rebound of aluminum prices [1][11][13]. - Indonesia's reduction of nickel production quotas and supply disturbances lead to a short - term rebound in nickel prices, while stainless steel is in the off - season with inventory accumulation [1][15][17]. - The continuous destocking of lithium carbonate in the off - season, along with potential supply disruptions, drives up prices, and it is recommended to go long [1][19][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: COMEX gold and silver futures rose, and the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of gold ETF holdings reflect the strong demand for hedging [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: Uncertainties such as the US - Iran negotiation and Trump's tariff policy, as well as the "safety stock theory", enhance the value of gold and silver as hedging assets [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has a long - term upward trend. Short - term support levels are around 1120 for gold and 21000 for silver. Be vigilant against profit - taking risks [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all rose, and trading volume and open interest increased significantly. Inventory has accumulated, and the basis and premium have changed [5]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global copper mine supply is tight, and domestic copper smelting capacity growth has been curbed. High copper prices and the holiday effect have led to significant inventory accumulation [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, take partial profits at high prices, and beware of price drops after the macro - sentiment fades. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for Shanghai copper is [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [13000, 13500] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices showed a narrow - range oscillation. Trading volume and open interest increased, inventory changed, and the basis and premium also changed [8]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, and supply and demand are both weak during the holiday. Inventory has accumulated seasonally [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautiously bullish, pay attention to the post - holiday demand recovery rhythm, and wait for more macro guidance. In the long - term, try long positions on dips. The price range for Shanghai zinc is [24200, 25000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3300, 3400] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum and alumina futures prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [11]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. New electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to increase production steadily. Inventory is a short - term suppressing factor, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips in the short - term, pay attention to inventory accumulation, and the main operating range is [22000 - 25000] [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel and stainless steel futures prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. Indonesia's reduction of nickel production quotas and supply disturbances increase market concerns. Stainless steel is in the off - season with inventory accumulation [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes, and the main operating range for nickel is [130000 - 150000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose, and the prices of spot lithium products also increased. Inventory decreased, and production decreased [19]. - **Underlying Logic**: Supply disruptions such as factory fires and export controls, as well as the expected increase in demand for replenishment, strengthen the expectation of supply tightening [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, and the price range is [162000 - 180000] [22].

锡业股份在机构调研时表示，长期来看，全球 环保要求强化、地缘冲突风险与勘探投资不足等多重因 素影响下，新增大型矿山项目较少、供给增长偏弱的格局或将仍将延续，不排除面临结构性的短期风 险，特别是锡的上游集中度比较高可能会导致供给扰动的外溢。需求方面，锡金属作为 新能源领域和 电子通讯领域中不可替代的金属原料，在当前全球新能源行业蓬勃发展、 人工智能日新月异及 新质生 产力提质增效的过程中，能源转型、人工智能、数字化浪潮等新兴技术发展将为锡中长期需求提供主要 增长动能。整体上，全球供需紧平衡与宏观波动交织的震荡格局或将延续。 ...

根据喜娜AI异动分析，有研新材涨停原因可能如下，净利润增长+治理结构优化+靶材业务增长： 1、公 司业绩表现出色，前三季度净利润同比增长114.14%，Q3单季同比增长56.31%，良好的业绩表现是刺激 股价涨停的重要因素。同时，公司对治理结构进行优化，撤销监事会改设审计委员会，有助于提升决策 效率，增强市场对公司的信心。 2、公司核心产品靶材业务销售收入同比增长50%，靶材作为公司重要 业务板块，其增长态势对公司整体业绩有积极影响。此外，公司新章程规定每年现金分红比例不低于 10%，明确的分红政策也吸引了投资者。 3、有研新材从事稀土材料、电子薄膜及贵金属材料等研发与 生产，产品应用于新一代信息技术、高端装备制造等领域。近期这些领域发展态势良好，行业需求增 加，为公司带来了更多的发展机遇。从板块联动来看，同花顺数据显示，2月25日有色金属板块多只个 股表现活跃，形成了一定的板块效应。 4、技术面上，若该股MACD指标在近期形成金叉，且股价突破 了重要的压力位，可能会吸引技术派投资者的关注。资金流向方面，当日主力资金呈现净流入状态，表 明市场资金对该股的看好。 责任编辑：小浪快报 2026年2月25日，有研新 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and trended stronger, and the spot import window for refined copper in China was briefly opened. The Trump administration's global tariffs are set to be imposed on Tuesday, with the possibility of the tax rate rising to 15%. LME copper inventories increased by 1,350 tons to 243,175 tons, Comex copper inventories increased by 1,024 tons to 545,736 tons, and domestic social inventories increased by over 150,000 tons to 508,500 tons. Short - term copper prices face high - level wide - range fluctuations, with the risk of a second callback due to the combination of fading macro sentiment and inventory pressure. However, the core logic driving copper price increases remains unchanged. If copper prices experience a short - term deep correction, it will be a good opportunity to lay out long - term long positions [1]. - **Aluminum**: On the first trading day after the holiday, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Overseas alumina prices rose, and domestic electrolytic aluminum plants carried out raw material winter storage, causing the alumina futures price to rise against the trend. However, social inventory backlog and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipts cancellation suppressed the upward trend. After the holiday, Shanghai aluminum may have a short - term price increase, but the overall space is limited. The subsequent price increase position of aluminum will be determined by the inventory accumulation amplitude of aluminum ingots [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 3.64% to $17,915 per ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.65% to 140,330 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventories decreased by 378 tons to 287,328 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 534 tons to 51,924 tons. The fundamentals show that nickel ore premiums are strengthening, and nickel iron prices are oscillating at a high level. There are concerns about tight resource supply, and the boundary cost support continues to rise. Although the phased demand has weakened month - on - month, the cost support is still solid. Pay continuous attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro uncertainties from the US tariff policy and inventory increases are factors affecting copper prices. The long - term upward logic of copper prices remains due to supply shortages and demand growth. Short - term risks exist, but price dips may present long - term investment opportunities [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price trend is affected by overseas price increases, domestic raw material storage, social inventory, and overseas macro factors. The post - holiday price increase space is limited, and inventory accumulation is a key factor [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price increases are accompanied by inventory decreases. Fundamental factors such as supply shortages and cost support drive the price. Pay attention to long - position opportunities near the cost line [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 1,195 yuan/ton from February 13th to February 24th. LME and Comex inventories increased, while domestic + bonded area social inventories decreased by 0.5 million tons [1][5]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 30 yuan/ton. LME inventories remained unchanged, while SHFE inventories increased [5]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased. LME inventories decreased, while SHFE inventories and social inventories increased [6]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 2,450 yuan/ton. LME inventories increased slightly, while SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased [6]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.9%. Social inventories increased by 3.62 million tons [8]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price increased by 1.5%. SHFE inventories increased by 2,264 tons [8]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [10][11][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][19][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research, and have received many industry awards [49][50].

02月25日消息，截止10:45，锌电池板块大涨，锡业股份、锌业股份涨停，株冶集团、罗平锌电、宏达 股份等个股涨幅居前。 责任编辑：小浪快报 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The RMB exchange rate has shown a strong trend, driven by domestic industrial progress, geopolitical stances, policy coordination, and a weakening US dollar. The long - term upward trend of RMB is supported by the continuous improvement of domestic industrial chain autonomy [2]. - Stock indices are expected to be strong, supported by positive liquidity and sentiment, with the spring rally and policy - favorable expectations [5]. - Treasury bonds' upward space should be viewed with caution, with a suggestion to hold a small amount of T2606 mid - line long positions and wait for short - term layout opportunities [6]. - Container shipping futures (European routes) are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with the market weighing macro - level positives against the physical market fundamentals [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to first consolidate and then rise; aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to consolidate; zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly; nickel - stainless steel is expected to maintain high - level volatility; tin is expected to maintain high - level consolidation; lead is expected to fluctuate [15][16][17][19][20][21]. - For oilseeds, the market is expected to focus on short - selling and reverse - arbitrage opportunities. Oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [23][25]. - For energy and oil and gas, high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, while low - sulfur marine fuel oil is relatively strong. Asphalt is expected to have small fluctuations [27][28]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium are expected to have a long - term bullish trend, while gold and silver are strategically bullish, with silver focusing on the opportunity to repair the gold - silver ratio [31][34]. - For chemicals, pulp futures can try a small - amount low - buying strategy, and offset - printing paper futures can maintain range trading. Pure benzene and styrene should focus on geopolitical trends, and LPG is mainly affected by geopolitics. Methanol should be temporarily observed, and plastics and PP are supported by cost. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong trend, and urea can be bought at low levels. Glass and soda ash's supply expectations may change [35][36][38][40][41][44][50][54][56][60]. - For black commodities, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate weakly; iron ore is expected to stop falling and stabilize; coking coal and coke have different trends, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly [64][67][70][71]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, the pig market has weak post - holiday demand; cotton is expected to be strong, but the upward space is restricted; sugar has limited upward space; eggs are expected to be stable in the short term and rise in the medium term; apples are pressured by weak demand; red dates are expected to face pressure and maintain low - level fluctuations; logs can be mainly observed [72][75][76][77][87][88][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Includes news such as US tariff adjustments, gold margin and price - limit adjustments, Spring Festival tourism data, AI - related policies, the Iran situation, and Fed officials' statements [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB has appreciated, driven by domestic industrial and geopolitical factors, as well as a weakening US dollar. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.95, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.88 [2][4]. - **Stock Indices**: The stock indices opened higher after the Spring Festival, with small - and medium - cap indices performing relatively strongly. They are expected to be strong due to positive liquidity and sentiment [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose on Tuesday, but the upward space should be viewed with caution. T2606 mid - line long positions can be held in small amounts, and short - term chasing of highs should be avoided [6]. - **Container Shipping (European Routes)**: The futures market showed a pattern of rising and then falling on the first trading day after the holiday. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with multiple positive factors and some negative factors [8][9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper rose slightly after the holiday. It is expected to first consolidate and then rise, and a horizontal arbitrage strategy can be considered [13][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to consolidate. Aluminum should pay attention to post - holiday demand and the Iran situation; alumina is bearish in the long term; cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum [16][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices followed the external market to make up for the increase. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of the negative feedback of tariff news on the market [17]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel rose on the first trading day after the holiday. They are expected to maintain high - level volatility, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work in the downstream and US tariff disturbances [17][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices recovered their decline and are expected to maintain high - level consolidation, paying attention to the approval progress in Indonesia and the actual resumption of production in Myanmar [20]. - **Lead**: Lead prices had a large divergence after the opening, and it is recommended to wait and see. It is expected to fluctuate [20][21]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The US tariff policy may affect China's soybean procurement. The supply pressure is expected to return in the second quarter. The domestic soybean meal market is short - term long and medium - term bearish, and attention should be paid to short - selling and reverse - arbitrage opportunities [22][23]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Palm oil is in the production - reduction season, but exports are declining; soybean oil has cost support; rapeseed oil supply is expected to be loose [24][25]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, while the low - sulfur marine fuel oil is relatively strong due to rigid buying support [27]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices fluctuated slightly. The spot market is affected by the rise in crude oil prices during the holiday, but the actual transaction is not satisfactory. It may face a decline if the demand fails to meet expectations after the holiday [28]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum and palladium are expected to be bullish in the long term, supported by factors such as tariff policies and the Iran situation. Attention should be paid to relevant investigations and new tariff measures [30][31]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices adjusted downward. They are strategically bullish, and silver should focus on the opportunity to repair the gold - silver ratio. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and Fed meetings [33][34]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Printing Paper**: Pulp futures are expected to continue to rise, and a small - amount low - buying strategy can be considered. Offset - printing paper futures are expected to fluctuate, and range trading can be maintained [35][36]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices rose after the holiday. Attention should be paid to geopolitical trends, and a long - position strategy can be considered after a pullback [37][38]. - **LPG**: LPG is mainly affected by geopolitics, especially the Iran - US negotiation. The domestic supply and demand situation has little change [39][40]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose, mainly due to concerns about the Iran - US conflict and a significant reduction in imports. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. - **Plastics and PP**: Plastic and PP prices rose following the oil price. They are supported by cost and macro - factors. Attention should be paid to mid - stream inventory accumulation and downstream demand release [42][44]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to maintain a strong trend. Natural rubber is in the low - production season, and synthetic rubber has cost support. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory digestion [45][50][51]. - **Urea**: Urea prices rose, driven by the high price of the latest Indian urea import tender. It is recommended to buy at low levels [53][54]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to have a complex supply - demand situation, with potential weakening of demand and possible production reduction. Glass is in a supply - demand weak situation, and high inventory is a risk [55][56][57][60]. - **Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported by cost and supply - demand factors. Attention should be paid to the Iran - US negotiation and the supply - demand situation [62]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate weakly, with high supply pressure and slow - starting demand [64]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to stop falling and stabilize. The supply improvement needs to be observed, and the demand is expected to increase with the resumption of work in steel mills [65][67]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is relatively weak, while coke has a first - round price increase. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work in mines and steel mills [68][70]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly, affected by the high inventory of downstream steel products [71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The post - holiday pig market has weak demand, and a selling - call - option strategy can be considered [72][73]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are strong, but the upward space is restricted by the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference. A long - position strategy can be considered after a pullback [74][75]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar is under pressure, and the upward space of sugar prices is limited [76]. - **Eggs**: Eggs are expected to be stable in the short term and rise in the medium term, affected by high inventory and weak consumption in the short term [77]. - **Apples**: Apple prices are pressured by weak post - holiday demand, but the decline space is limited due to delivery contradictions [87]. - **Red Dates**: Red dates are expected to face pressure and maintain low - level fluctuations, with attention paid to post - holiday demand [88]. - **Logs**: Logs can be mainly observed, with a relatively neutral valuation. A small - amount low - buying strategy and a small - amount 03 - 05 reverse - arbitrage strategy can be considered [89][90].

中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | 12 2 | 200 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | | August And And States of the | 11 100 Lad HA | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 国内假日期间事件复杂：美国关税反复、伊朗局势变化，另外日本政府或给资本市 | | | 多单持有 | 场带来潜在动荡。黄金大涨，今日开盘国内市场将补涨。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不 | | ★ | | 确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银光伏、新能源汽车及 AI 等新兴领域推动其工业需求占比攀升至近 60%，成为需 | | 白银 | 谨慎追高 | 求增长的核心引擎；全球流动性宽松强化了其与黄金联动的避险金融属性。短期参 | | ★ | | 与难度大，关注风险报偿比。 | | 铜 | | 特朗普 10%关税生效，美联储官员放鹰，伊朗局势紧张，国内 LPR 按兵不动，宏观 | | | 回调试多 | 情绪多空交织。随着金三银四消费旺季和国内两会临近，铜整体趋势偏强， ...