| | 操作评级 | 2026年03月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ☆☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ななな | | | 氧化铝 | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | なな女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | な女女 | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 第 | ななな | 孙芳芳 高级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 锡 | な☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | | | | | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 工业等 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | ななな | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜增仓大跌，短线抛压为中东战局升温。国内现铜下调到95615元，上海铜贴水30元，广东升水80元，精 废价差-460元。 ...

供应方面,云南及江西地区冶炼厂加工费月环比上涨2000元/吨,12月进口锡精矿实物量 17637吨,折金属5191.6吨,环比增长13.3%,同比增长40.2%;截至3月17日,从印尼交易 所已出口2085吨锡锭,预计后期印尼出口水平或将稳定。需求方面,下游采购偏谨慎,下 游企业将逐步开始复产复工,但订单情况较为平淡,下游电子、光伏等行业当前终端消费 表现不及预期，企业规模性补库意愿不强。综上所述，中东局势持续胶着，同时美联储释 放鹰派信号令年内降息预期大幅缩水,预计短期锡价偏弱震荡,关注锡价35万元一线表 现;对锡价中长期看涨逻辑依旧存在,短期调整或提供长线多单布局机会 锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年3月19日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 现货价格及基差 品种 现值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 前值 SMM 1#锡 369500 -10850 -2.85% 380350 SMM 1#锡升贴水 1650 1900 -250 -13.16% 元/吨 长江 1#锡 370000 380850 -10850 -2.85% LME 0-3升贴水 -203.00 -91.00 -1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic outlook is negative due to factors such as the US - Israel joint strike on Iran, which has reduced Middle East crude oil supply, pushed up oil prices, and raised inflation risks, thus weakening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Basic metals are under pressure in the short - term, but aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. In the medium - term, the duration of the US - Iran war and oil price trends need to be monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: The US dollar index rebounds, putting pressure on copper prices. With increasing energy prices, US inflation risks rise, and the US dollar's safe - haven property boosts the index. Copper ore supply is tight, and the smelting profit is falling, leading to an expected contraction in refined copper supply. As the demand peak season approaches, the inventory accumulation of refined copper slows down. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price strengthens in the short - term due to renewed disturbances in the ore end. Although the upstream - downstream balance has improved, it is still slightly in surplus. The cost is supported by rising shipping and auxiliary material prices, while the demand is pressured by electrolytic aluminum production disturbances. Alumina is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [6]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts are highly uncertain, causing a slight decline in aluminum prices. The domestic production capacity is stable, while overseas supply is disturbed. The initial - stage operating rate has slightly recovered, but high prices suppress demand. Social inventory continues to accumulate. Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term and may rise in the medium - term [7][8]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The cost support continues, and the price drops slightly. The cost is supported by the high - priced scrap aluminum, and the supply is constrained by policies. The demand is affected by the weakening subsidy policy. The price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - and medium - term [9][15]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory accumulates significantly, and zinc prices decline. The macro - economic slowdown concerns increase, but the situation has slightly improved. The zinc supply is increasing, while the demand is average. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short - term and have a downward trend in the long - term [11][12]. - **Lead**: The cost support is stable, and lead prices stop falling and rebound. The spot discount widens, and the production of lead ingots increases. Although the demand for electric bicycles is weak, the lead - acid battery operating rate will rise. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. - **Nickel**: High visible inventory suppresses the market, and the price oscillates. The nickel supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory remains high. The adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore quota affects the market's balance expectation. Nickel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [17][18][19]. - **Stainless steel**: The high price of nickel - iron supports the stainless - steel market, and the price oscillates. The cost is supported, and the production is expected to increase in March. The terminal demand is cautious. Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [20][21]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment weakens, and tin prices are under pressure. The supply in Wabang and Indonesia is expected to increase, while the supply in Congo (Kinshasa) is at high risk. The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is growing. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [22]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined, with decreases of 0.38%, 0.36%, and 0.31% respectively [150]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 18, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index fell by 0.94% on the day, 1.58% in the past 5 days, 0.52% in the past month, and 0.43% since the beginning of the year [152].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The macroeconomic outlook is negative, and base metals are under pressure to fluctuate. The short - term high - oil - price environment leads to a negative macro outlook, and base metals are generally under pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong due to supply issues, and the medium - term focus is on the duration of the US - Iran war and oil price trends [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook Copper - **View**: The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on copper prices, which are expected to fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the spot premium of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 180 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 60.02 dollars/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day. In February this year, the US CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.5% year - on - year. - **Logic**: The increase in energy prices and the rise of the US dollar index due to the Iran conflict put pressure on copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the smelting profit is falling, leading to an expected contraction in refined copper supply. As the demand peak season approaches, the inventory accumulation of refined copper slows down [5]. Alumina - **View**: The price of alumina strengthens in the short term and is expected to fluctuate widely. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2733.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The alumina warehouse receipt was 405450 tons, an increase of 3611 tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment amplifies the market fluctuations. The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and the supply - demand balance has improved but is still slightly in surplus. The Middle East issue affects the demand for alumina, but the cost is supported by rising freight and auxiliary material prices. The recent mine - end disturbances strengthen the price [6]. Aluminum - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts increase supply disturbances, and aluminum prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations. - **Analysis**: On March 16, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spot premium was - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas was 134.5 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The US economic data shows a structural divide, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict is uncertain. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The overseas supply is disturbed by the conflict, and the Indonesian supply is restricted. The demand is gradually picking up, and the inventory is still accumulating. In the short term, the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [7][8]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The social inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations. - **Analysis**: On March 16, the price of ADC12 was 24600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The cost of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. The supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is affected by high prices, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short term, the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and in the medium term, the cost support is strengthened [9][10][13]. Zinc - **View**: The US - Iran war has not eased, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate downward. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 85 yuan/ton, and the inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 23.62 million tons, an increase of 0.51 million tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The US - Iran conflict and rising oil prices lead to concerns about economic slowdown and a weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of zinc ore is increasing, and the domestic supply pressure is rising. The demand is in the peak season but the terminal orders are limited. In the short term, the price may fluctuate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward trend [11][12]. Lead - **View**: The cost support is stable, and lead prices stop falling and rebound, expected to fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9925 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 lead ingots was 16400 - 16500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16450 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The social inventory of lead ingots was 8.01 million tons, an increase of 0.24 million tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The spot discount is expanding, and the profit of secondary lead smelting is improving, leading to an increase in production. The demand is in the traditional peak season, but the terminal demand is weak. The inventory may still accumulate, but the cost support is strong [13][14]. Nickel - **View**: Nickel prices fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 57247 tons, a decrease of 60 tons compared to the previous day, and the LME nickel inventory was 283740 tons, a decrease of 174 tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel has slightly decreased, but the inventory is still high. The Indonesian government's reduction of the 2026 nickel ore quota has adjusted the market's balance expectation. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [14][15]. Stainless Steel - **View**: The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 53962 tons, an increase of 1188 tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the strong price of nickel iron. The production in February decreased due to the Spring Festival, but is expected to increase in March. The terminal demand is cautious. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [17][18]. Tin - **View**: The spot trading is dull, and tin prices fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 60 tons to 8715 tons, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 322 tons to 11673 tons. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is expected to increase as the Wa State restarts production and Indonesia raises its production target. The demand in the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, but the short - term price is suppressed by the macro - sentiment and supply recovery expectation [18]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index**: On March 17, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2591.86, a decrease of 0.61%; the commodity 20 index was 2926.66, a decrease of 0.58%; the industrial product index was 2565.21, a decrease of 0.51%. - **Special Index - Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On March 17, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2699.75, with a daily increase of 0.42%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.77%, a 1 - month increase of 0.70%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.51% [144][146].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Zinc - Zinc supply - demand fundamentals are generally good, but high domestic inventories restrict upward price movement. Short - term prices may oscillate weakly, with the main contract supported at 23,800 - 24,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC, marginal changes in demand, and macro - level guidance [2]. Copper - In the short term, the inventory - related structural contradictions that previously drove copper prices up have been largely resolved. Prices are under pressure due to reduced market risk appetite and may face a phased adjustment. However, the long - term supply - demand logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments may offer opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract is expected to find support around 98,000 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel - Overseas macro uncertainties are increasing, and raw material - end contradictions are accumulating, providing support for prices. Demand has slightly improved, but high inventories still pose a constraint. The market is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract running between 134,000 - 145,000 yuan/ton [5]. Stainless Steel - Overseas macro risks are uncertain, raw material supply is tight, providing strong cost support. Steel mills' production schedules are increasing, and demand is gradually recovering. The market will likely see an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with the main contract trading in the 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton range [8]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with a strategy of being bearish on rallies. For aluminum, geopolitical uncertainties are high, and prices will oscillate at high levels. The LME's spot tightness and high domestic inventories create a divergence in drivers. In the long run, the global supply - demand balance remains tight, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The short - term main contract for Shanghai aluminum is expected to trade between 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum Alloy - High raw material costs strongly support ADC12 prices, but slow - growing demand and the negative effects of high prices are emerging. The market is expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern, with the main contract trading between 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - In the short term, tin prices are expected to be weak due to the continued escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the impact on market risk sentiment. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices remains, and short - term adjustments may offer long - term long - position opportunities. Attention should be paid to the performance of tin prices at the 350,000 - yuan level [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Geopolitical conflicts increase market uncertainties. The trading momentum of the new - energy sector is weakening. Fundamentally, the market maintains resilience with both supply and demand increasing. The market will likely see wide - range oscillatory adjustments in the short term, with the main contract trading between 148,000 - 162,000 yuan/ton [16]. Industrial Silicon - Rising costs may strongly support the bottom of industrial silicon prices. Currently, supply is growing rapidly, demand is growing slightly, and inventories are accumulating again. Attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection, electricity prices, and cost fluctuations. It is advisable to operate with caution, stay on the sidelines, or build long positions on dips [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is facing oversupply pressure, with prices under continuous downward pressure due to large inventories. The relationship between downstream demand and prices is weak. In the long run, the demand for energy - security guarantees may benefit the development of the photovoltaic industry. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, or consider going long after the market stabilizes while controlling positions and setting stop - losses [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The current price of SMM 0 zinc ingots is 24,080 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 0.95%. The import profit and loss are - 20.66 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 9.99% month - on - month. The galvanizing start - up rate was 53%, an increase of 13.94 percentage points [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The current price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 100,515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 0.15%. The refined - scrap price difference is 475 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 20.18% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% month - on - month. The electrolytic copper rod start - up rate was 72.92%, an increase of 10.45 percentage points [4]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The current price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 141,350 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous value, with an increase of 0.28%. The futures import profit and loss are 945 yuan/ton, down 302 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 24.22% [5]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in the current period was 32,600 tons, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month. SHFE inventory was 63,681 tons, an increase of 3.10% week - on - week [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The current price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The current price - futures price difference is 430 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.36% [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 1.9008 million tons, an increase of 44.07% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 532,100 tons, a decrease of 1.19% week - on - week [8]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The current price of SMM A00 aluminum is 25,120 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 0.55%. The electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss are - 4,222 yuan/ton, down 248.1 yuan/ton from the previous value [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the alumina production was 6.6002 million tons, a decrease of 10.63% month - on - month. The aluminum profile start - up rate was 51.8%, an increase of 16.40 percentage points [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The current price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 25,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 is - 420 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 41.31% month - on - month. The regenerated aluminum alloy start - up rate was 31.34%, a decrease of 22.6 percentage points week - on - week [12]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: The current price of SMM 1 tin is 392,650 yuan/ton, down 6,050 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 1.54%. The import profit and loss are - 13,594.90 yuan/ton, down 5,300.71 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 63.91% [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the tin ore import volume was 17,637 tons, an increase of 16.81% year - on - year. In February, the SMM refined tin production was 15,100 tons, a decrease of 23.91% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The current average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous value, with an increase of 0.63%. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is 6,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,900 yuan/ton from the previous value [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 tons, a decrease of 15.13% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 111,503 tons, a decrease of 10.57% month - on - month [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The current price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) is 525 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 5.41% [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production was 275,700 tons, a decrease of 26.58% month - on - month. The national start - up rate was 38.02%, a decrease of 21.33 percentage points [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The current average price of N - type re - feed polysilicon is 0 yuan/kg, down 46,000 yuan/kg from the previous value, with a decline of 100%. The main futures contract price is 42,040 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 1.68% [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production was 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23.61% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory was 357,000 tons, an increase of 2.59% week - on - week [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - Zinc: The supply - demand fundamentals are generally good, but high domestic inventories restrict the upside space. With limited short - term macro - level positives, the short - term price may fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to focus on zinc ore TC, demand marginal changes, and macro - level guidance, with the main contract supported at 23800 - 24000 [2]. - Copper: The short - term price is under pressure due to the resolution of the previous inventory structural contradiction and reduced market risk appetite. There may be a phased adjustment risk, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction logic remains unchanged. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions. It is advisable to follow the US - Iran conflict and overseas inventory accumulation, with the main contract supported around 98000 [4]. - Nickel: Overseas macro uncertainties increase, and raw material - end disturbances support the price. Demand has slightly improved, but high inventories still pose a constraint. The bottom support is strong, but further upward drivers need to be transmitted to the real - world end. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 134000 - 145000 [5]. - Stainless Steel: Overseas macro risks are uncertain, raw material supply is tight with strong cost support. Steel mills' production schedules are increasing, and demand is gradually recovering. There is a supply - demand game, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 14000 - 14500 [8]. - Aluminum: The alumina market may fluctuate widely in the short term, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. Aluminum prices will fluctuate at high levels with news changes, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The short - term main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to operate in the range of 24000 - 26000 [11]. - Aluminum Alloy: High raw material costs support the ADC12 price, but demand improvement is slow, and the negative feedback of high prices is emerging. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels, with the main contract in the range of 23000 - 24500 [12]. - Tin: In the short term, tin prices are expected to be weak. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: Geopolitical conflicts increase market uncertainties, and the trading momentum of the new energy sector is weakening. The fundamentals remain resilient, but the optimistic demand expectations have been mostly digested. The price will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, with the main contract in the range of 148000 - 162000 [16]. - Industrial Silicon: Cost increases may strongly support the bottom of industrial silicon prices. Supply is growing rapidly, demand is slightly increasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to operate with caution, stay on the sidelines, or build long positions at low prices [19]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon market is oversupplied, and prices are under pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to demand - side changes. The long - term development of photovoltaic demand may be favorable, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24080 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan from the previous value, with a decline of 0.95%. The import profit and loss is - 20.66 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread shows different changes [2]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan, a decline of 0.15%. The import profit and loss is 34 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread also has corresponding changes [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 141350 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan, an increase of 0.28%. The import profit and loss of futures is 945 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread varies [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly spread shows different trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 25120 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decline of 0.55%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 4222 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread has changed [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 25200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly spread has corresponding changes [12]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 392650 yuan/ton, down 6050 yuan, a decline of 1.54%. The import profit and loss is - 13594.90 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread varies [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 159000 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan, an increase of 0.63%. The monthly spread has changed [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly spread shows different trends [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re - feedstock is 0 yuan/kilogram, down 46000 yuan, a decline of 100%. The monthly spread has corresponding changes [21]. Fundamental Data - **Zinc**: In February, refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, down 9.99% month - on - month. The galvanizing start - up rate was 53%, up 13.94 percentage points [2]. - **Copper**: In February, electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, down 3.13% month - on - month. The electrolytic copper rod start - up rate was 72.92%, up 10.45 percentage points [4]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production in a certain period was 32600 tons, down 7.45% month - on - month. SHFE inventory increased by 3.10% week - on - week [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 190.08 million tons, up 44.07% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.19% week - on - week [8]. - **Aluminum**: In February, alumina production was 660.02 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month. The aluminum profile start - up rate was 51.80%, up 16.40 percentage points [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 35.80 million tons, down 41.31% month - on - month. The recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate was 31.34%, down 41.87% week - on - week [12]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore imports were 17637 tons, up 16.81% year - on - year. In February, SMM refined tin production was 15100 tons, down 23.91% month - on - month [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In February, lithium carbonate production was 83090 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate start - up rate was 48%, down 14.29% month - on - month [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The national industrial silicon production was 27.57 million tons, down 26.58% year - on - year. The national start - up rate was 38.02%, down 21.33% year - on - year [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The weekly polysilicon production was 1.90 million tons, up 1.06% week - on - week. The monthly polysilicon production was 7.70 million tons, down 23.61% year - on - year [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East war continues, enhancing the global inflation expectation, and the non - ferrous metals market is generally in an adjustment state [1]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are affected by macro factors and fundamentals, with potential downward risks but also support from domestic de - stocking and strong consumption [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Viewpoint Summary - **Copper**: High - level range operation (98000 - 106000), with prices under pressure in the high - level range. Macro factors have an increasing reverse impact, and the supply and demand situation is complex. It's recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies or wait and see [3]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating upward. The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the alumina price is rising. The supply is affected by the Middle - East situation. It's recommended for long - side allocation [3]. - **Alumina**: Low - level oscillation. The downstream demand is gradually picking up, and it's recommended for short - term long - side trading [3]. - **Aluminum alloy**: Oscillating upward. The impact of the Middle - East situation on prices is two - sided, and it's recommended for long - side allocation while controlling positions [3]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating and adjusting, tending to be weak. The supply and demand fundamentals provide limited support, and it's recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: Breaking through the support level and moving downward. The inventory is increasing rapidly, and it's recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies [3]. - **Nickel**: Oscillating. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it's recommended for short - term short - side trading [4]. - **Stainless steel**: Oscillating. It's recommended for short - term trading [4]. - **Tin**: Wide - range oscillation. The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is in a recovery state. It's recommended for range trading [4]. - **Industrial silicon**: Oscillating and rebounding. The production and inventory situation is changing, and it's recommended to hold long positions moderately on dips [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Low - level oscillation. It's recommended to allocate long positions moderately and wait for policy signals [4]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are both increasing, and it's recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2 Macro - **Macro Hotspots**: In the week from March 9th to March 15th, important economic data were released. For example, China's February CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year. The US February CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year [13][14]. - **Next Week's Macro Data Calendar**: From March 16th to March 22nd, a series of important economic data are scheduled to be released, including China's February social consumer goods retail sales and the US February core PPI [19]. 3.3 Copper - **Market Review**: This week, copper prices were under pressure in the high - level range. The macro factors had a significant impact, and the fundamentals were complex [3]. - **Key Data Tracking**: Include LME copper (spot/three - month) premium/discount, COMEX institutional positions, and global visible copper inventory [28][30][35]. 3.4 Aluminum - **Market Review**: This week, the aluminum price was in a high - level oscillation with an overall upward trend [40]. - **Key Data Tracking**: Include the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods, social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum [44][46][48]. 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review**: This week, zinc prices adjusted after a rise and showed a weakening trend [53]. - **Key Data Tracking**: Include the inventory of zinc in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, global visible zinc inventory, and the premium of 0 zinc ingots [56][57][61]. 3.6 Lead - **Market Review**: This week, lead prices oscillated downward and fluctuated within a certain range [65]. - **Key Data Tracking**: Include the inventory of lead in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, global lead inventory, and the lead forward curve [67][70][75]. 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review**: This week, nickel prices continued to oscillate and adjust, with a short - term weakening trend [79]. - **Key Data Tracking**: Include the inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, LME nickel inventory, and the price of high - nickel iron and Jinchuan nickel plates [82][83][88]. 3.8 Tin - **Market Review**: This week, tin prices oscillated and declined, with a wide - range oscillation [96]. - **Key Data Tracking**: Include the futures closing price of tin, tin premium/discount, and tin - related product prices [98][99][104]. 3.9 Gold, Silver and Other Varieties - **Trend Analysis**: Gold, platinum, silver, and palladium are in different states of oscillation. Gold maintains an overall upward trend, while silver oscillates and adjusts, and palladium has a wide - range oscillation [110][111][113]. - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon has a wide - range oscillation, polysilicon oscillates downward, alumina has a certain trend, and aluminum alloy oscillates and rebounds with upward pressure. Lithium carbonate oscillates and rebounds with a wide - range oscillation [115][116][118][120].

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided on the overall investment rating of the report [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: The recent decline in copper prices is due to inventory pressure and potential geopolitical conflicts, but a mid - term bullish view is maintained as copper has increasing demand and limited supply [1] - Aluminum: The Qatari 600,000 - ton aluminum plant has suspended production cuts. Overseas spot is tight, and the market is long - crowded with potential for a correction. In the short - to - medium term, with overseas capacity losses hard to recover quickly, it's advisable to buy on dips [1] - Zinc: The medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight. Although the domestic fundamentals are average, long - term limited capital investment and supply disruptions from Iran are expected to support short - term zinc prices [2] - Nickel: The short - term fundamentals are weak, but with many supply - side disturbances and strengthened Indonesian nickel price control policies, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5] - Stainless Steel: With a slight decline in steel mill production, recovering downstream demand, and supply - side policy intervention, stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range following nickel prices [9] - Lead: Due to high primary production profits and weak terminal demand, lead inventories have accumulated. Under the influence of overseas inventory drag and recycled lead profit support, lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13] - Tin: Tin prices are affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin prices may rise significantly; if liquidity tightens due to the US - Iran conflict, tin prices may fall sharply [16] - Industrial Silicon: The supply and demand are approaching balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [20] - Lithium Carbonate: In March, supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight balance. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season. The upward price space requires futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disturbances, while a downward breakthrough needs demand collapse or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [24] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price: Copper prices oscillated downward this week, mainly affected by macro - geopolitical factors [1] - Supply: Overseas, there are concerns about China's consumption ability. Domestically, the recovery of recycled copper processing enterprises is slow, and the supply of含税 recycled copper is tight, narrowing the refined - scrap spread [1] - Outlook: A mid - term bullish view is maintained, and it's advisable to buy and hold [1] Aluminum - Price: Aluminum prices fluctuated, with a decline in the Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices [1] - Supply: The Qatari 600,000 - ton aluminum plant suspended production cuts. Middle - East logistics has partially recovered, but there are still potential impacts from the US - Iran conflict on production capacity [1] - Outlook: In the short - to - medium term, buy on dips [1] Zinc - Price: Zinc prices declined, with a decrease in the Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong zinc ingot prices [2] - Supply: The medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight, and the import window is not open. Domestic and imported TC are at low levels, and spring mine restarts are expected to drive a rebound [2] - Demand: Downstream enterprises resumed production after the Lantern Festival, but orders are weak, and there are environmental protection impacts in the north, leading to inventory accumulation [2] - Outlook: Short - term prices are expected to be supported [2] Nickel - Price: Nickel prices showed a slight increase, with the 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore price remaining stable, and the prices of Jinchuan and Russian nickel rising slightly [5] - Supply: The output of pure nickel in February was 32,600 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 2,600 tons) [5] - Demand: Demand is mainly for essential needs, with the premium of Jinchuan nickel weakening and that of Russian nickel being weak [5] - Inventory: Domestic inventories are accumulating, and LME inventories are slightly decreasing [5] - Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5] Stainless Steel - Price: The prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained stable, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased slightly [9] - Supply: Steel mill production decreased slightly month - on - month [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is gradually recovering [9] - Cost: The price of nickel iron and chromium iron increased slightly due to rising ore prices [9] - Inventory: Inventories decreased slightly this week, and warehouse receipts remained stable [9] - Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate within a range following nickel prices [9] Lead - Price: Lead prices showed a weak trend, with a decrease in the spot import and futures import returns [13] - Supply: Primary lead production is profitable and is resuming. Recycled lead production is expected to resume in mid - March due to losses [13] - Demand: The battery production rate has recovered, and dealers' battery inventories are decreasing, but March production is still under observation [13] - Inventory: Spot inventories have accumulated, squeezing the supply space of recycled lead [13] - Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13] Tin - Price: Tin prices oscillated downward, facing pressure due to liquidity concerns [16] - Supply: Low - grade tin production is expected to recover in the second quarter, but there may be an unexpected reduction in domestic ingot production in March. There are supply - side risks such as Indonesia's potential ban on tin ingot exports [16] - Demand: After the price decline, the willingness to replenish inventory at all levels is strong, and overseas consumption is flat [16] - Inventory: Both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing, mainly due to large smelters' warehouse deliveries [16] - Outlook: Prices are highly affected by global macro - liquidity, with strong upward potential if liquidity is loose and large downward adjustment space if liquidity tightens [16] Industrial Silicon - Price: The basis of 421 - grade silicon in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased, and the basis of 553 - grade silicon in East China and Tianjin also decreased [19] - Supply: Large - scale producers have resumed production, and the output is increasing. Some plants in Yunnan may reduce production, and Inner Mongolia has a slight production cut [20] - Outlook: Supply and demand are approaching balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [20] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The SMM prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the basis of the main and near - month contracts changed [24] - Supply: Supply is elastic after the maintenance of the spodumene production line, and Chilean shipments have increased significantly [24] - Demand: The terminal demand for lithium iron phosphate is strong, and the production capacity cycle has decreased, with over - expected production start [24] - Inventory: The inventory reduction is slowing down, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season [24] - Outlook: The upward price space requires futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disturbances, while a downward breakthrough needs demand collapse or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Long - term holding is recommended. The short - term easing of the Iran situation has changed the asset - price pricing model. Safe - haven demand supports the gold price. Attention should be paid to inflation trends and stagflation trading. The long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged, and short - term investors should focus on structural entry opportunities [1]. - Silver: Participation is recommended after volatility reduction. Silver is supported by the gold price, but stagflation trading may have a negative impact. The end of the Iran crisis is uncertain, and short - term participation is difficult. Investors should focus on the risk - reward ratio [1]. - Copper: Long - term holding is recommended. Although the short - term copper price is under pressure and tests the 100,000 - yuan support level, the medium - to - long - term outlook remains positive [1][7]. - Zinc: It is expected to trade in a range. The strong US dollar and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East put pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector. High energy prices may lead to supply contraction in Europe. Zinc prices will be under pressure in the short term, testing integer - level support before rebounding [1][11]. - Lead: The short - term price rebound is under pressure as smelters have resumed production, but downstream consumption is weak, and inventories are accumulating [1]. - Tin: The short - term price rebound is under pressure as overseas and domestic smelters have resumed production, and the support from the tin - ore end is weakening [1]. - Aluminum: The short - term price trend is expected to be relatively strong. Although global electrolytic - aluminum supply is expected to tighten, domestic inventory accumulation is obvious in the off - season. However, downstream demand is recovering significantly [1]. - Nickel: The short - term price is expected to have a small - scale rebound. The news of additional quotas in Indonesia weakens the expectation of supply tightening at the ore end. High domestic inventory and weak consumption continue, and stainless - steel inventory is accumulating [1][18]. - Industrial silicon: The short - term price rebound is under pressure. Demand is weak, but cost increases and low valuation on the futures market suggest a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - Polysilicon: It is expected to trade in a low - level range. Although the fundamentals suggest a slight inventory reduction in March, the spot market is sluggish, and the main - contract price remains low. Caution is advised when participating [1]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to trade in a wide range. Total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks, but the rate of decline is slowing, and production is increasing. Market sentiment has led to a decline in the futures price, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Data**: The prices of SHFE gold, COMEX gold, SHFE silver, and COMEX silver have shown different fluctuations. The gold - silver ratio has also changed. The US dollar index has risen slightly, and the net long positions of gold and silver in COMEX have increased [2]. - **Fundamental Logic**: The Iran situation is uncertain, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran has reaffirmed its jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical factors may lead to expectations of inflation and interest - rate hikes. The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months. The long - term bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged, but the short - term market is waiting for new drivers [2][3][4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, with short - term support around 1,120. For silver, attention should be paid to the support around 21,000 [4]. Copper - **Market Data**: The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper have all declined slightly. Trading volume and inventory have changed, with some inventory increasing and some decreasing. The basis and spread have also shown different trends [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Global copper - ore supply remains tight, with the copper - concentrate processing fee at a record low. Although the high copper price and holidays have led to obvious inventory accumulation, the expected effective - circulation inventory is tight. The peak season has started, and downstream buyers are actively purchasing at low prices [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, the copper price will test the 100,000 - yuan support level again. Industrial buyers should purchase as needed, and sellers should wait for the price to rebound and sell at the upper - resistance level. The medium - to - long - term trend is still positive. The short - term trading range for Shanghai copper is [99,000, 103,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper, it is [12,900, 13,200] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Data**: The prices of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc have declined slightly. Trading volume has decreased, and inventory has changed, with some inventory increasing and some decreasing. The basis and spread have also shown different trends [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: Global zinc - ore supply may shrink in 2026. Some mines are facing production reduction or non - production due to various reasons. Supply is expected to weaken in February, and demand is weak, with slow order recovery after the holiday and continuous inventory accumulation [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc will trade in a range, testing integer - level support before rebounding. In the medium - to - long - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The trading range for Shanghai zinc is [24,000, 24,800] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc, it is [3,280, 3,350] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: The prices of LME aluminum, Shanghai aluminum, and alumina have all increased. The trading volume and inventory of aluminum have changed, with some inventory increasing and some decreasing [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in 2026 continues. In the industry, short - term supply disruptions in the Middle East continue, and new electrolytic - aluminum projects in Indonesia are still ramping up production. Domestic inventory is an important factor suppressing prices, but downstream demand is recovering rapidly. For alumina, overseas bauxite supply is sufficient, and the price is slightly under pressure. Although domestic inventory has decreased slightly, the oversupply situation is difficult to change fundamentally [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short term, paying attention to the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots. The main trading range is [23,500 - 26,000] yuan/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Data**: The prices of LME nickel and Shanghai nickel have increased slightly, while the price of stainless - steel has decreased slightly. The trading volume and inventory of nickel and stainless - steel have changed, with some inventory increasing and some decreasing [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in 2026 continues. Although Indonesia plans to reduce nickel - ore production quotas in 2026, the news of additional quotas weakens the expectation of supply tightening. Domestic pure - nickel inventory remains high, and the downstream stainless - steel market is in the off - season, with inventory accumulating. The recovery of downstream demand needs to be verified [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on nickel and stainless - steel on dips, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless - steel inventory changes. The main trading range for nickel is [130,000 - 150,000] yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: The prices of lithium - carbonate futures contracts have declined. Trading volume and inventory have changed, with production increasing and inventory decreasing slightly [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals remain in a supply - demand tight situation. Total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks, and the upstream inventory is insufficient for one month. With the arrival of the peak season, downstream replenishment may further tighten the supply. The lithium - concentrate ban in Zimbabwe has not been fully priced in, which will increase the production cost of lithium carbonate in the long term. Although the rate of inventory reduction has weakened, there is still a rigid support for the price [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: A strategy of buying on dips in the range of [150,000 - 160,000] yuan/ton is recommended [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium term, believing it has incremental demand and limited supply, and can be bought and held [1] - In the short term, aluminum prices are likely to rise due to production disruptions in the Middle East, and there is still a driving force for long positions in the domestic and foreign markets [1] - Zinc prices are expected to be supported in the short term due to limited long - term capital investment and supply disruptions from Iran [2] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range under the influence of bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [4][5] - Stainless steel prices are expected to follow nickel prices and fluctuate within a range [8] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend under the influence of overseas inventory drag and recycled lead profit support [10][11] - Tin prices are greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin has strong upward elasticity; if liquidity tightens, tin prices may be suppressed [14] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and bottom - oscillate cyclically in the long term [17] - Lithium carbonate is in a tight - balance state in March, with a risk of inventory accumulation in May and June. The upward space needs futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disturbances, and the downward breakthrough requires demand collapse or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated and declined. Downstream demand recovered after the Spring Festival, but LME inventory pressure and potential geopolitical conflicts led to the decline. The supply of scrap copper was tight, and the substitution demand for electrolytic copper increased, which may promote the further reduction of refined copper inventory [1] Aluminum - Aluminum production in the Middle East was affected, with a 600,000 - ton aluminum plant in Qatar reducing production and the shipping of a Bahrain aluminum plant being blocked. Short - term aluminum prices are likely to rise, and there is a driving force for long positions in the domestic and foreign markets [1] Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight in the medium term, and the import window has not opened. The downstream demand has recovered after the Lantern Festival, but the orders are weak, and the inventory has accumulated. Long - term capital investment is limited, and supply disruptions from Iran support short - term zinc prices [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased in February. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory has increased. The short - term fundamentals are weak. With policy intervention on the supply side, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [4][5] Stainless Steel - The steel mill's production decreased slightly. The downstream demand is recovering. The cost of nickel iron increased slightly, and the chromium iron price remained stable. The inventory increased seasonally. It is expected to follow nickel prices and fluctuate within a range [8] Lead - The primary lead production is resuming, and the recycled lead is expected to resume production in mid - March. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has accumulated. Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10][11] Tin - Tin prices dropped significantly this week. The supply is expected to recover, but there are supply - side risks. The demand for restocking is strong after the price decline. Tin prices are greatly affected by macro - liquidity [14] Industrial Silicon - Some factories have resumed production. The supply and demand are close to balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long term, prices are expected to bottom - oscillate cyclically [17] Lithium Carbonate - In March, the supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight - balance state. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in May and June. The upward and downward breakthroughs require specific conditions [19]