Core Points - The U.S. government has announced new "reciprocal tariffs" that will take effect on August 7, following President Trump's executive order signed on July 31 [1][2] - The new tariff rates reflect a more protectionist and isolationist trade policy, with significant implications for global trade dynamics [1][11] - The average tariff rate is expected to rise from 13.3% to 15.2% [6] Tariff Rates Summary - The maximum tariff rate is set at 41%, with a general rate of 10% for countries with a trade surplus with the U.S. [2] - Countries with a trade deficit will face a minimum tariff rate of 15%, affecting approximately 40 countries [2][3] - Specific countries have been assigned varying tariff rates, with Cambodia's rate dropping from 49% to 19%, while Switzerland's rate increased from 31% to 39% [4][3] Impact on Trade Partners - Canada will see its tariff rate increase from 25% to 35%, which has been met with disappointment from Canadian officials [5][4] - The U.S. has implemented a 40% additional penalty on goods deemed to be transshipped from high-tariff countries to low-tariff countries [3][4] - The new tariffs are expected to significantly impact industries such as textiles and automotive in affected countries [4][5] Negotiation and Agreements - The U.S. has only reached a limited number of trade agreements, with only 7 out of over 200 proposed agreements finalized [7][9] - Recent agreements with countries like Japan and South Korea have resulted in reduced tariff rates, but many details remain under negotiation [8][9] - The ongoing negotiations with China have resulted in a temporary extension of tariff suspensions, indicating a complex and evolving trade landscape [10][13] Legal and Economic Implications - Trump's tariff policies are facing legal challenges, with questions raised about the extent of presidential power in modifying tariff rates without congressional approval [11][12] - Economists warn that the new tariffs could have long-term negative effects on the global economy, particularly for Asian economies [13]

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting from August 1 [1] Group 2 - South Korea's President Lee Jae-myung confirmed a trade agreement with the U.S., which includes a $350 billion investment, with $150 billion allocated specifically for shipbuilding cooperation [2] - The trade agreement aims to eliminate uncertainties in South Korea's export environment and supports Korean companies in entering the U.S. market across various sectors [2] - The U.S. will reduce tariffs on South Korean automobiles to 15%, while South Korea will not further open its rice and beef markets [2] Group 3 - President Trump announced a "comprehensive" trade agreement with South Korea, which includes a $350 billion investment for U.S.-controlled projects and a commitment to purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas or other energy products [3] - The agreement stipulates that South Korea will open its market to U.S. products, including automobiles, trucks, and agricultural products, while the U.S. will not face tariffs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between South Korea and the United States aims to eliminate uncertainties in South Korea's export environment and involves significant financial commitments from both sides [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - South Korea will invest $350 billion in the U.S., with $150 billion allocated specifically for U.S.-South Korea shipbuilding cooperation [1]. - The U.S. will reduce tariffs on South Korean automobiles to 15%, while South Korea will not further open its rice and beef markets to the U.S. [2]. - The agreement includes South Korea's commitment to purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas or other energy products from the U.S. [2]. Group 2: Political Statements - U.S. President Trump announced that the trade agreement is "comprehensive and complete," indicating a significant shift in trade relations [2][3]. - Both countries will fully open their markets to each other's products, including automobiles, trucks, and agricultural products [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market had a mixed performance overnight, with most black - series and non - metallic building materials rising, and international oil prices surging due to the US - EU trade agreement. The financial market showed different trends, with A - shares rising, Hong Kong stocks slightly falling, and overseas stock markets having mixed performances. The bond and foreign exchange markets also had their own fluctuations [2][20][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures: Most black - series and non - metallic building materials rose, such as a 6.99% increase in coking coal, 5.92% in coke, 5.84% in glass, etc. International oil prices increased, with the US crude oil main contract up 3.81% to $69.25/barrel and Brent crude up 3.53% to $71.77/barrel. International precious metals also rose, while London base metals had a mixed close [2][3]. Important Information Macro - Information - The IMF raised China's 2025 growth rate forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% due to stronger - than - expected economic activities in the first half of 2025 and lower - than - expected actual tariffs between China and the US [6]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading fees of glass, soda ash, and caustic soda futures contracts. The domestic refined oil price remained unchanged this round as the adjustment amount per ton was less than 50 yuan. Hainan Development's subsidiary carried out kiln shutdown and production reduction [8][10]. Metal Futures - Domestic component companies slightly increased their quotes due to cost pressure, but downstream acceptance was low. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association refuted rumors about the anti - involution work in the photovoltaic industry [12]. Black - Series Futures - The fourth round of coke price increase was fully implemented. Iron ore inventories at major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the inventory at 47 Chinese ports also declined. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange resumed and added some futures delivery warehouse businesses. The China Iron and Steel Industry Association emphasized the imbalance between supply and demand in the steel industry and called for industry self - discipline [13][15]. Agricultural Product Futures - July's imported soybean arrivals and oil mill crushings remained high, and the expected end - of - July soybean meal inventory was about 1.1 million tons. Indonesia expected to export more palm oil to India in 2025. EU's imports of palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed, and soybeans decreased compared to last year. Canada's oilseed processing data showed different trends in June [17][18]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.33%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.64%, and ChiNext Index up 1.86%. Hong Kong stocks slightly fell, but southbound funds continued to flow into the Hong Kong market, and the annual inflow might exceed HK$1 trillion. The number of A - share stocks with a price of over 100 yuan reached 101. Listed companies actively participated in share repurchases. Hong Kong market's trading volume and market value increased compared to last year [20][21][23]. Industry - Domestic refined oil prices remained unchanged this round. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association refuted rumors about anti - involution work. The State Post Bureau and the Ningbo Banking Association addressed industry involution issues [24][25]. Overseas - Trump set a 10 - day deadline for Russia and Ukraine to reach a cease - fire and threatened economic punishment. There were uncertainties in US - India trade relations. The Fed's voting number for the interest - rate decision decreased. The EU planned to buy $40 billion worth of AI chips from the US. US economic data showed a narrowing trade deficit, changes in housing prices, and job vacancies. The Bank of Korea considered further interest - rate cuts [27][28][31]. International Stock Markets - US stocks fell, while European stocks rose. High - end analysts warned about potential stock price damage from tariffs. Boeing's Q2 revenue increased, while Merck & Co. announced a restructuring. Novo Nordisk and Stellantis faced performance challenges [32][33][35]. Commodities - Domestic commodity futures had a mixed overnight performance, with black - series and non - metallic building materials mostly rising. International oil prices increased due to the US - EU agreement. Precious metals rose, and base metals had a mixed close [2][37][39]. Bonds - The domestic bond market adjusted, with yields rising and Treasury bond futures falling. The issuance of panda bonds in the inter - bank market exceeded 100 billion yuan. US bond yields fell due to trade - friction concerns [40]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index rose, with most non - US currencies falling [41][43]. Upcoming Events - There are multiple events scheduled, including Chinese central bank's open - market operations, press conferences, interest - rate decisions by central banks, and corporate earnings reports [45].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is facing a precarious situation with a national debt of $36.7 trillion, equating to $110,000 per citizen, and growing at a rate of $55,000 per second [1] - Interest payments on the debt are projected to consume $1.2 trillion in 2025, surpassing the entire military budget, which could lead to a fiscal crisis [1] - A looming debt ceiling crisis threatens to push the U.S. towards a potential sovereign default, with $10 trillion in debt maturing within the year [1] Government Measures - The U.S. Treasury has implemented "extraordinary measures" to avoid economic collapse, including suspending federal employee retirement fund investments and reallocating public project funds [3] - The Treasury has even opened donation channels via PayPal, but public contributions have only totaled $67.3 million over 26 years, which is negligible compared to the national debt [3] Policy Responses - The Trump administration has proposed selling "golden cards" for $5 million each to wealthy individuals, which would grant them permanent residency in the U.S. This initiative aims to raise $1 trillion but has faced criticism for only covering 8% of interest payments on the debt [4] - The administration has also attempted to pressure allies into converting their U.S. debt holdings into 100-year zero-coupon bonds, effectively shifting the debt burden [6] Trade and Tariff Impacts - The administration's tariff policies have exacerbated economic challenges, maintaining a 49% tariff on Chinese goods and increasing steel and aluminum tariffs on the EU to 25% [7] - Japan has agreed to reduce auto tariffs to 15% but has resisted the debt swap proposal, while the EU is preparing retaliatory measures against U.S. products [7] Economic Consequences - The U.S. economy is experiencing rising inflation, with a current rate of 2.8%, leading to increased household expenses by $1,200 annually [9] - The World Bank has downgraded global growth forecasts from 2.7% to 2.3%, with significant declines in trade volumes expected [10] - The agricultural sector in the U.S. has suffered losses of $22 billion due to retaliatory tariffs, and manufacturing jobs in Mexico are at risk [10]

Core Insights - The U.S. is on the brink of a debt crisis, with a national debt of $36.7 trillion and annual interest payments reaching $1 trillion, surpassing the defense budget [1] - The crisis is exacerbated by hedge funds increasing leveraged investments in U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to a significant drop in overnight reverse repo balances, indicating liquidity risks [2] - There are allegations of "duplicate accounting" in U.S. Treasury records, suggesting potential overstatement of the $36 trillion debt, raising concerns about a possible "technical default" [4] Group 1: Government Actions - The Trump administration has introduced the "Trump Gold Card" program, requiring 30% of a $5 million investment to be used for purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds, aiming to raise $5 trillion if 1 million cards are sold [6] - Tariff strategies have been employed against allies and adversaries, with varying rates aimed at generating investment in the U.S. and offsetting debt [6] - The administration is also pushing for a "Lakewood Manor Agreement" to convert existing debt into 100-year zero-coupon bonds, which could reduce annual interest payments by $400 billion [8] Group 2: Economic Implications - The "Big and Beautiful Act" is projected to add $3.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, compounding existing financial issues [11] - The U.S. economy is facing a "debt death spiral," necessitating a reduction of the deficit to 3% of GDP to stabilize the situation [11] - The potential revaluation of gold reserves could significantly impact the financial landscape, with current accounting values far below market prices, leading to volatility in gold prices and broader financial markets [10] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the "Trump Gold Card," the S&P 500 index fell by 4%, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds surged to 5.5% [6] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts are low, with only a 4.1% probability of a rate cut in July, indicating skepticism about the administration's monetary policy strategies [8] - The EU and China are preparing retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs, which could further strain economic relations and impact U.S. industries [10]

Group 1 - The core of the agreement is a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US, along with a commitment from the EU to invest an additional $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products [1][3][4] - The agreement is perceived by some European leaders as a one-sided concession rather than a mutually beneficial trade cooperation, with criticism from figures like Bernd Lange and Marine Le Pen highlighting its negative implications for the EU [1][6][7] - The US maintains a 50% global tariff on steel and aluminum, while the EU's interpretation suggests that pharmaceuticals will also be subject to the 15% tariff, which could impact EU exports significantly [4][5] Group 2 - The agreement has been met with cautious optimism from some US officials, who view it as a significant opening of the EU market, but there is a notable lack of enthusiasm from European leaders [5][6] - European media and business sectors have expressed strong criticism, arguing that the agreement could harm local employment and industry, with concerns about the imbalance in trade terms [6][7] - The new tariff structure represents a significant increase from previous averages, with the EU's average tariff on US goods being 1.32% compared to the newly established 15% [7]

Group 1 - The US and EU have reached a new trade agreement, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on EU products and the EU committing to invest $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy [2][4] - The agreement is seen as a compromise, avoiding a potential trade war that could have resulted from a proposed 30% tariff by the US [3][4] - The new tariff rate is significantly higher than the previous average of around 2%, which poses challenges for EU product competitiveness [5][7] Group 2 - Germany, as the largest EU economy, benefits from the agreement as it reduces the average tariff on automotive exports from 27.5% to 15%, thus protecting its key industries [4][6] - The agreement has sparked criticism within the EU, with some leaders arguing it represents a loss for European industries and could threaten jobs [7][8] - The potential for increased US procurement and investment from the EU raises questions about the actual implementation and market willingness to follow through [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas: The US and the EU reached an agreement, with the US imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, half of the previously threatened rate, avoiding an escalation of the trade war. The EU promised to invest about $600 billion in the US and significantly increase purchases of US energy and military products. Sino-US high-level meetings will be held in Stockholm on Monday to extend the August 12 tariff "ceasefire" agreement by 90 days. With the tariff paths of many countries becoming clearer, market risk appetite has slightly increased [2]. - Domestic: The current market is in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality". The positive sentiment brought by supply - side optimization policies is still evolving. A - shares once broke through the 3600 - point mark, and trading volume and margin trading balances increased. In June, the year - on - year decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed to - 4.3%, mainly driven by the automotive industry. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment, policy outcomes, and tariff negotiations [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - US 7 - month Manufacturing and Services PMI Differentiation: The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI was 49.5, weaker than expected and below the boom - bust line. The services PMI reached a new high this year at 55.2. Tariffs and high prices were reported to suppress demand [5]. - ECB's July Decision: On July 24, the ECB announced a pause in interest rate cuts after eight consecutive cuts, maintaining the main interest rate at 2.00%. The market's expectation of a September rate cut dropped below 30% [7]. Asset Performance - Equity: Most equity indices showed positive performance. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.33% last week, and the Hang Seng Index rose 5.47% [9]. - Bond: Yields of domestic and overseas bonds showed different trends. For example, the 1 - year domestic treasury bond yield rose 3.38 BP last week, while the 5 - year US treasury bond yield fell 1.00 BP [12]. - Commodity: The performance of commodities was mixed. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose 2.73% last week, while WTI crude oil fell 1.48% [14]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index fell 0.80% last week, and the euro - to - RMB exchange rate rose 0.73% [16]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: High - frequency data such as the congestion index, subway passenger volume, and real - estate transaction volume are presented through charts [18]. - Overseas: Data on red - book retail sales, unemployment claims, and US treasury bond spreads are shown [22]. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data and events are scheduled this week, including US GDP, employment data, and euro - zone economic sentiment indices [31].

Group 1 - The G20 Development Ministers' Meeting is held in Mpumalanga, South Africa, focusing on enhancing social protection and combating illicit financial flows [1] - President Trump announces a new trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US, while key areas like steel, aluminum, chips, and spirits remain unresolved [2] - The European Central Bank's council member states there is little reason to further lower interest rates unless the economy faces significant shocks [2] Group 2 - The Russian Central Bank lowers its benchmark interest rate from 20% to 18%, maintaining a tight monetary policy until inflation returns to target levels by 2026 [3] - US durable goods orders fell by 9.3% in June, the largest decline since April 2020, with core durable goods orders unexpectedly dropping by 0.7% [3] - The US stock market sees record margin account borrowing exceeding $1 trillion for the first time [3] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rises by 0.47% to 44,901.92 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reaching new historical highs [4] - COMEX gold futures decline by 1.04% to $3,338.50 per ounce, while silver futures drop by 2.29% to $38.33 per ounce [4] Group 4 - US oil futures decrease by 1.45% to $65.07 per barrel, and Brent crude futures fall by 1.11% to $67.60 per barrel [5] - The 2-year US Treasury yield rises by 0.91 basis points, while the 10-year yield decreases by 0.99 basis points to 4.388% [5] Group 5 - The US dollar index increases by 0.19% to 97.67, with various currency pairs showing mixed performance against the dollar [6]