1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Natural Rubber**: Current raw material prices have downside support, and the inventory accumulation rate is starting to converge or is about to reach an inflection point. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [2]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has also decreased slightly. However, the MTO demand is weak, which suppresses the price rebound. The two key variables in the current market are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol due to low Iranian production and geopolitical uncertainties. The price may be volatile in the short - term [6]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has strong supply and weak demand, and there is a possibility of further inventory accumulation in the future. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250 yuan/ton. The glass market has high inventory, which restricts the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of glass at 1000 yuan/ton and consider short - selling with a light position [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The spot price of polyolefins changes little, and the market is mainly for hedging purchases. The basis weakens. The static fundamentals show a decrease in both supply and demand and a slight accumulation of inventory. The upstream inventory is low and has a strong willingness to hold prices. In the short - term, the price increase space and sustainability are expected to be restricted [10]. - **Urea**: The urea supply is sufficient, and the daily output has further increased to 210,000 tons. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The industrial demand is decreasing, and the agricultural fertilizer preparation is in progress. The overall trading atmosphere is weak. The short - term price increase is mainly a hedging reaction, and the upward space may be limited. The main contract of urea should focus on the 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton range [11]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has an imbalance between supply and demand, with high inventory and weak demand. The cost provides some support, and the market may be in a volatile adjustment in the short - term. The PVC market has a weak fundamental situation. The inventory is increasing, and the cost support varies. The short - term price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the main contract should focus on the 4900 - 5300 yuan/ton range [13]. - **Crude Oil**: The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation is still large. In the short - term, the oil price is boosted by geopolitical fluctuations, but the weak supply - demand expectation of crude oil still suppresses the increase. The short - term Brent crude oil may operate in the range of 63 - 70 US dollars/barrel [14]. - **LPG**: The LPG price has increased slightly. The inventory of LPG refineries has increased slightly, while the port inventory has decreased. The upstream refinery operating rate has increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The short - term market trend needs to be further observed [17]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is gradually improving, but due to the import pressure and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited, and the price may follow the oil price and downstream styrene. The styrene industry profit is good, but the supply - demand is expected to be loose in February. The rebound space is limited under the high - valuation and weak supply - demand expectation [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Basis**: On February 4, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.26%. The basis of whole - latex decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 285 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.79% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and India increased, while that in China decreased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly. The domestic tire production and export volume increased in December, and the import volume of natural rubber also increased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory in Qingdao increased by 7,185 tons to 591,689 tons, with a growth rate of 1.23%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 174 tons to 53,625 tons, with a decline rate of 3.10% [2]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,279 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.42%. The MA59 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 36 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 12.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,900 tons, with a decline rate of 13.14%. The methanol port inventory decreased by 61,000 tons to 1.411 million tons, with a decline rate of 4.14% [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.15 percentage points to 77.56%, and the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 8.67 percentage points to 52.2% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: On February 2, the price of glass and soda ash in different regions remained stable. The glass 2605 contract increased by 37 yuan/ton to 1,109 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.45%. The soda ash 2605 contract increased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,229 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.33% [8]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 84.19%, and the weekly production increased by 11,000 tons to 783,100 tons, with a growth rate of 1.48%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased slightly, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 250 tons to 86,960 tons, with a decline rate of 0.29% [8]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 652,000 weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, with a decline rate of 1.22%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 23,000 tons to 1.5442 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.51% [8]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of L2605 increased by 53 yuan/ton to 6,918 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77%. The L59 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 11.76% [10]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 56,700 tons to 379,700 tons, with a growth rate of 17.55%. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 32,000 tons to 432,900 tons, with a decline rate of 7.39% [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.08 percentage points to 81.59%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.40 percentage points to 76.02% [10]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the urea futures fluctuated and rose. The 01 - 05 contract spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 42 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 5.00% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production increased by 8,700 tons to 211,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.28%. The inventory in the factory decreased by 26,400 tons to 918,500 tons, with a decline rate of 2.79% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the price of PVC in East China increased. The V2605 contract increased by 84 yuan/ton to 5,155 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The V2605 - V2609 spread increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 99 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 91.4%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 77.1% [13]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 290,000 tons, with a decline rate of 5.8%. The PVC total social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 585,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.4% [13]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, Brent crude oil increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.16%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.20 US dollars/barrel to 4.32 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 4.85% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the US cold wave, the US crude oil production decreased significantly, and the inventory of crude oil and oil products decreased more than expected, but the gasoline inventory increased [14]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the main PG2603 contract increased by 57 yuan/ton to 4,251 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.36%. The PG03 - 04 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to - 265 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 4.74% [17]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 24.6%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 121,000 tons to 1.88 million tons, with a decline rate of 6.05% [17]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate increased by 1.24 percentage points to 80.02%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points to 60.7% [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the Brent crude oil price increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,780 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.3% [19]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 9,000 tons to 296,000 tons, with a decline rate of 3.0%. The styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 8,000 tons to 108,600 tons, with a growth rate of 8.0% [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 77.6%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 69.3% [19].

Report Overview - The report is a daily publication from Goldtrust Futures Research Institute, dated February 5, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, there may be a staged rebound, but the overall upside is limited. Operations should focus on high - selling and low - buying within the range [4] Summary by Category Coking Coal - Indonesia's government's large - scale production cut plan has led to miners suspending spot coal exports. Some companies' 2026 production quotas may be cut by 40% - 70% compared to 2025, causing export quotes to skyrocket and driving the A - share coal sector to a daily limit and coking coal futures to strengthen [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mines in major production areas are starting to arrange for holidays and production suspension, leading to a seasonal low in supply. However, the Mongolian coal customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, with relatively sufficient imports. In February, coking coal supply decreases while demand remains stable, and the fundamentals improve marginally [3] - The coking coal futures are oscillating in the range of 1,100 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with the 1,300 - yuan integer mark being a strong resistance level. The recent rally lacked volume, which may trigger profit - taking by funds. Macroscopically, market trading activity decreases as the Spring Festival approaches, and speculative demand shrinks [3] Stock Index Futures - The A - share market rebounded after hitting the bottom today, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the gap. It is facing short - term pressure near the current level, and it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies for now [6][7] Gold - Gold prices continue to decline sharply, and it is expected that the volatility will continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it has broken through the platform support and is regarded as oscillating bearishly [12][13] Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has changed little, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The main drivers are the policy - side stimulus policies and the anti - involution policies for the supply - side clearance. Technically, it closed with a large positive line today, and the trading idea has turned to oscillating bullishly [15][16] Methanol - As the Spring Festival approaches, the methanol market has abundant supply and weakening demand. Enterprises are smoothly clearing their inventories but mostly selling at low prices. The market lacks positive support, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term [18] Pulp - From the perspective of the pulp fundamentals, the supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month since the end of last year, driving the pulp price to bottom out and rebound. However, the recovery of domestic terminal consumption is still slow, which should limit the speed and space of price increases. The futures market has shown an oscillating pattern in the recent period [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions and inventory data impact prices, with cold - induced production decline providing support, but investors are advised to participate with light positions due to variable geopolitical factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is abundant, demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival, and prices are affected by geopolitical and cost factors, with follow - up pressure [2] - **Asphalt**: In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival. Prices are affected by crude oil and raw material imports [2] - **Polyester**: Macro - environment cools, crude oil prices fall, and polyester raw materials are expected to fluctuate with costs, with a first - quarter inventory build - up expected [4] - **Rubber**: The macro - environment cools, and the rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - weakness situation, with prices expected to decline and fluctuate [4] - **Methanol**: Supply may decrease in February, demand from MTO devices may decline, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range at a low level [5] - **Polyolefins**: Supply may increase slightly, inventory will increase passively during the holiday, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 3 - month contract rose 1.07 dollars to 63.21 dollars/barrel (1.72% increase), Brent 4 - month contract rose 1.03 dollars to 67.33 dollars/barrel (1.55% increase), and SC2603 rose 8 yuan/barrel to 457.8 yuan/barrel (1.78% increase). Geopolitical tensions and API data on inventory changes are key factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2603 fell 3.81% to 22701 yuan/ton, LU2604 fell 2.28% to 3168 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, and demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan/ton. In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 1.14% to 5150 yuan/ton, EG2605 was flat at 3767 yuan/ton. A 500,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China restarted, and there are inventory build - up expectations in the first quarter [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2605 rose 200 yuan/ton to 16180 yuan/ton, NR rose 170 yuan/ton to 13095 yuan/ton, BR rose 285 yuan/ton to 13185 yuan/ton. The macro - environment cools, and supply exceeds demand [4] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2225 yuan/ton. Supply may decrease in February, and demand from MTO devices may decline [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, East China's PP prices were between 6550 - 6750 yuan/ton. Supply may increase slightly, and inventory will increase during the holiday [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, PVC market prices in East China were stable with a slight increase. Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 4, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes [7] 3.3 Market News - Trump said on February 2 that the US and India reached a trade deal, with India potentially stopping buying Russian oil and the US reducing tariffs on Indian goods. API data showed that last week, US crude and distillate inventories decreased sharply, while gasoline inventory increased significantly [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The section presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [11][13][15][17][19][22][24][26] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The section shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [28][31][35][36][38][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The section presents the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products [41][43][46][49][51][53][55] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The section shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products [57][59][61][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The section presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products [67][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and several analysts, along with their professional backgrounds and honors [72][73][74][75]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply - disruption gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and the subsequent production recovery of OPEC, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly restricts downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate on rallies [8]. - For rubber, with the overall decline of commodities and large price fluctuations, it is recommended to trade on the short - term basis of the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. The position of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [13]. - For PVC, the overall situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand persists. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export - rush sentiment support it, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profits can be gradually taken [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. The coal - based inventory has significantly decreased, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the raw material inventory of agricultural films may peak [22]. - For polypropylene, the cost - end forecast shows a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no capacity - expansion plans in H1 2026, and the demand is in seasonal fluctuation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [25]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - term profit is also high. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following the crude oil price [28]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is affected by the off - season. PTA is in the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Although the processing fee has increased significantly, there is a risk of correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the import volume in February is expected to be high. The port inventory will continue to accumulate. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently moderately high year - on - year, and there is an expectation of further valuation compression in the mid - term without further production cuts in China [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 23.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 4.93%, at 449.40 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products also declined. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the arrival inventory decreased by 2.48 million barrels to 201.25 million barrels, a 1.22% decline. Gasoline, diesel, and total refined oil commercial inventories increased [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas decreased. The main futures contract decreased by 42.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2247 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 125 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in some regions decreased, and the overall basis was reported at 0 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton, reported at 1770 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities declined significantly with large price fluctuations. The short - term market is determined by funds, with low correlation to fundamentals. The long and short sides have different views. The overall situation of tire enterprises' production and inventory is complex, and spot prices of some products decreased [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 57 yuan, reported at 5071 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The overall production rate increased slightly, while the downstream demand decreased slightly. Factory and social inventories changed in different directions [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot price of styrene decreased, while the futures price increased, and the basis weakened. Supply - side indicators such as production rate and inventory changed, and demand - side indicators such as the weighted production rate of three S decreased [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate increased, and production and trader inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL5 - 9 spread decreased [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate decreased slightly, and production, trader, and port inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL - PP spread and PP5 - 9 spread decreased [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 36 yuan, reported at 7080 yuan. The CFR price increased, and the basis and 3 - 5 spread changed. The production loads in China and Asia increased. Some devices are in the process of restarting. The import volume from South Korea decreased, and the inventory increased [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 58 yuan, reported at 5150 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load remained unchanged, some downstream devices were under maintenance or restarting, and the terminal production load decreased. The social inventory increased, and the processing fee changed [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract remained unchanged, reported at 3767 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load increased, some devices at home and abroad were restarted, the downstream production load decreased, and the port inventory increased [32].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in shock, and slightly closing up. The intraday price center shifted slightly up to 16,180 yuan/ton. At the close, the price slightly rose 0.25% to 16,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 130 yuan/ton. After the short - term bearish sentiment was vented, Shanghai rubber futures stopped falling and stabilized. It is expected that the rubber price may maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening downward, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,269 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,239 yuan/ton. At the close, it slightly closed down 1.83% to 2,247 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 32 yuan/ton. As the bearish atmosphere intensifies, methanol futures may maintain a weak - volatile trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening downward, and significantly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 453.9 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 446.4 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price significantly closed down 4.93% to 449.4 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East weakens and the Fed's hawkish expectations strengthen, the crude oil premium has significantly retreated, and the short - term oil price has started to correct [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons or 1.23%. The bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons with a growth rate of 3.34%, and the general trade inventory was 494,100 tons with a growth rate of 0.82%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 5.10 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 2.27 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.40 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.35 percentage points. As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile export exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.03%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.45%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 10.22%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year. The domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.5%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 7.24%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 83.37%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 200 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 229,500 tons. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1, and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day, at a historical high. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.628 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 278,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 515,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points. As of January 27, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 96,982 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 18,190 contracts, and a significant increase of 38,211 contracts or 65.02% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. As of January 27, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 217,962 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,191 contracts, and a significant increase of 112,503 contracts or 106.68% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,900 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | 16,180 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | - 280 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,247 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | 2,247 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 433.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.6 yuan/barrel | 449.4 yuan/barrel | +0.4 yuan/barrel | - 16.4 yuan/barrel | - 1.0 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month spreads, inventory, capacity utilization rate, and net position changes, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [16][28][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products generally declined on Monday due to factors such as geopolitical events and cost - side impacts. Most products are expected to be in an oscillatory state. For example, crude oil prices dropped significantly due to the potential nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US and the decision of OPEC+ to maintain production. Other products like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, etc., were also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost fluctuations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI 3 - month contract closed down $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a 4.71% decline; Brent new 4 - month contract closed down $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a 4.36% decline; SC2603 closed at 450 yuan/barrel, down 22.7 yuan/barrel, a 4.8% decline. Iran may hold high - level talks with the US in the coming days. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. Brazil's 2025 oil production reached a record 3.77 million barrels per day, up 12.3% from the previous year. The price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2603) fell 7.01% to 2,679 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) fell 5.92% to 3,128 yuan/ton. The supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2603) fell 4.879% to 3,299 yuan/ton. In the first half of February, the inventory in the north is at a low level, while in the south, the inventory is expected to rise during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; EG2605 closed at 3,767 yuan/ton, down 3.73%. Some PTA and polyester devices have changes in operation. The price of polyester raw materials is expected to oscillate following the cost [4] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber (RU2605) fell 380 yuan/ton to 15,980 yuan/ton. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,230 yuan/ton. The domestic production in February is expected to decrease slightly, and the import volume will decline from a high level. The demand from MTO devices is expected to decline. The price is expected to maintain a low - level wide - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: The price of polyolefin products shows a loss in profit. The supply in February is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will enter a holiday period, with inventory passively increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply in February will remain high, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on February 2, 2026, compared with January 30 [9] 3.3 Market News - Iran and the US will restart nuclear negotiations on Friday. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and distillate inventories are expected to decline last week, while futures inventories may increase [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][15][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][32][36] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, etc. [59][61][63] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [68][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the deputy director of the research institute, the energy - chemical research director, and analysts for different product categories, each with rich experience and professional titles [73][74][75]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, with a mid - term layout as the main operation idea [2] - For methanol, the current price has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums, which strongly suppresses the downstream. The negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [5] - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so it is advisable to short at high levels [7] - For rubber, with significant commodity price drops and large volatility, it is recommended to conduct short - term trading based on the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. The position of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can be restored [12] - For PVC, the industry's comprehensive profit is at a relatively low - to - neutral level, with little reduction in supply and high production. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. Although short - term export incentives exist, the overall domestic supply - demand situation shows strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in production capacity and operation [14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. With the supply still abundant, port inventories increasing, and demand weakening in the off - season, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and profits can be gradually taken [18] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has fallen, and there is still room for downward valuation. With the supply pressure relieved and demand weakening in the off - season, the price may be supported [21] - For polypropylene, the EIA forecast indicates a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and supply surplus may ease. With no new production capacity planned in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved, but the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [23] - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to be in a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [25] - For PTA, the supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is weakening in the off - season, leading to stock - building during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, with a large expected component. There is a risk of a short - term correction, but there is still room for upward valuation after the Spring Festival, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long [27] - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and imports in February are expected to remain at a high level. The port stock - building cycle will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of high inventory and high operation. The current valuation is moderately high year - on - year, and there is an expectation of valuation compression in the mid - term without further domestic production cuts [30] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 33.90 yuan/barrel, a 7.02% decline, at 449.00 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined, with high - sulfur fuel oil down 202.00 yuan/ton (7.01%) to 2679.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil down 197.00 yuan/ton (5.92%) to 3128.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed mixed inventory changes in refined products, with an overall reduction of 0.93 million barrels in refined oil inventory to 46.83 million barrels, a 1.94% decrease [1] - **Strategy View**: Take profit at high levels in the short term and focus on mid - term layout [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices showed different changes, with Jiangsu down 25 yuan/ton, and others having smaller or no changes. The main contract of the futures fell 92.00 yuan/ton to 2252 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 144 yuan [4] - **Strategy View**: The current price has priced in geopolitical premiums, suppressing the downstream, and the negative feedback may continue [5] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas increased by 10 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract fell 3 yuan/ton to 1787 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, short at high levels [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities declined significantly with large volatility. The short - term market is determined by funds, with low correlation to fundamentals. The long and short sides have different views. The total steel - tire operating load of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.41% as of January 29, 2026, slightly down from last week but up significantly from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire operating load was 75.35%, slightly up from last week and also up significantly from last year. China's natural rubber social inventory increased [10] - **Strategy View**: Conduct short - term trading based on the market, set stop - losses, and restore the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 49 yuan to 5014 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou was 4780 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 234 yuan/ton (up 49 yuan). The 5 - 9 spread was - 117 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan). The overall operating rate was 78.9%, with the calcium - carbide method up and the ethylene method down. Factory inventory decreased, while social inventory increased [13] - **Strategy View**: The industry's fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support the price, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in production capacity and operation [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene fell, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, while the futures price fell, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate of styrene decreased, and the port inventory increased. The demand - side operating rate of three S products decreased [17] - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. Gradually take profit [18] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price fell 136 yuan/ton to 6878 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 100 yuan/ton to 6850 yuan/ton. The basis was - 28 yuan/ton (strengthened by 36 yuan). The upstream operating rate increased, and production enterprise inventory decreased [20] - **Strategy View**: The crude oil price may have bottomed, and the spot price of polyethylene has fallen. There is still room for downward valuation, but the supply pressure is relieved, and demand is weakening in the off - season [21] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price fell 110 yuan/ton to 6714 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 25 yuan/ton to 6740 yuan/ton. The basis was 26 yuan/ton (strengthened by 85 yuan). The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories at various levels decreased [22] - **Strategy View**: The supply surplus may ease, and there is no new production capacity planned in H1 2026. The overall inventory pressure is high, and in the long term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 238 yuan to 7044 yuan. The CFR price fell 22 dollars to 891 dollars. The load in China and Asia increased. Some devices were restarting. The inventory at the end of December increased [24] - **Strategy View**: The current load is high, and it is expected to be in a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [25] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 178 yuan to 5092 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 185 yuan to 5095 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan). The PTA load remained unchanged, while the downstream load decreased. Social inventory increased, and the processing fee decreased [26] - **Strategy View**: The supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is weakening in the off - season, leading to stock - building during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of a short - term correction in the processing fee, but there is still room for upward valuation after the Spring Festival [27] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 146 yuan to 3767 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 113 yuan to 3722 yuan. The basis was - 98 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan). The supply - side load increased, while the downstream load decreased. Port inventory increased [29] - **Strategy View**: The overall load is still high, and imports in February are expected to remain at a high level. The port stock - building cycle will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of high inventory and high operation [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The price center dropped significantly to below 16,000 yuan/ton during the session, closing down 3.73% at 15,980 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 130 yuan/ton. Affected by the overall decline of the energy - chemical sector, it is expected that the rubber price will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [6]. - On Monday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The highest price reached 2,343 yuan/ton, and the lowest dropped to 2,243 yuan/ton, closing down 3.92% at 2,252 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 26 yuan/ton. Supported by the bearish atmosphere, methanol futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [6]. - On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of weak volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The highest price reached 485.6 yuan/barrel, and the lowest dropped to 449.0 yuan/barrel, closing down 7.02% at 449.0 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East weakened and the hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve increased, the crude oil premium significantly retracted, and the oil price started a short - term correction [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 0.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [8]. - As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. During the period, some semi - steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, and the device production schedule increased slightly, supporting the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises; the shipment of all - steel tires was mediocre, and some enterprises still had production control, dragging down the capacity utilization rate to decline slightly [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the scale of production and sales has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of Chinese commercial vehicles reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%. The production and sales returned to more than 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period last year. In total, in 2025, the total sales volume of the Chinese heavy - duty truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 87.03%, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45%, and a significant increase of 10.22% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 29.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the dimethyl ether operating rate remained at 7.24%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 83.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 58.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the port methanol inventory in East and South China remained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant increase of 229,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant increase of 8.628 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 278,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 515,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States remained at 90.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 27, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 96,982 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 18,190 contracts and a significant increase of 38,211 contracts or 65.02% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 27, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 217,962 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 12,191 contracts and a significant increase of 112,503 contracts or 106.68% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,900 yuan/ton | - 350 yuan/ton | 15,980 yuan/ton | - 380 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | + 30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,255 yuan/ton | - 27 yuan/ton | 2,252 yuan/ton | - 68 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | - 41 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 453.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 449.0 yuan/barrel | - 21.8 yuan/barrel | + 4.0 yuan/barrel | + 21.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][29][31] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][40][42]

Group 1 - Oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI March contract closing at $65.21 per barrel, a monthly increase of 14.51%, and Brent March contract at $70.69 per barrel, up 14.64% [2][41] - The overall trend in January showed a decline followed by a rebound, driven by geopolitical factors [2][41] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remain a significant concern, with any diplomatic breakthroughs appearing unlikely [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surplus in the global oil market this year, with supply exceeding demand by 3.85 million barrels per day, approximately 4% of global demand [5] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted its forecast for 2026 demand growth down by 90,000 barrels to 1.14 million barrels per day [5] - US crude oil production has decreased to 13.7 million barrels per day, with expectations of further declines in the coming weeks [5] Group 3 - Extreme weather events have significantly impacted US oil production, causing a temporary 15% drop in output and leading to price volatility [4] - The market is sensitive to supply disruptions, with risk premiums of $3 to $8 per barrel due to potential interruptions [4] - Current US crude oil inventories stand at 838.753 million barrels, with commercial stocks at 423.754 million barrels, reflecting a 2.08% increase year-on-year [5] Group 4 - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil from Iran is expected to decrease, with January shipments estimated at 900,000 tons, down 300,000 tons month-on-month [7] - Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in China is anticipated to increase significantly, with expected imports of 100,000 tons in January and 105,000 tons in February [7] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to influence oil supply dynamics, with recent disruptions affecting shipping volumes [8] Group 5 - The overall sentiment in the oil market is mixed, with geopolitical uncertainties providing some support for prices while high inventories limit upward movement [6][8] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with short-term fluctuations driven by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [6][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the overall commodities have risen sharply with strong buying enthusiasm and large fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. The suggestion to buy NR main contract and short RU2609 should be postponed [14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and rush - to - export sentiment support it. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. It is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The PE valuation still has room to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the demand side shows a downward trend in the overall operating rate [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation has risen. Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage with short - term high maintenance on the supply side and declining demand from polyester and chemical fiber due to the off - season. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. - For ethylene glycol, in the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 3.80 yuan/barrel, a 0.81% increase, at 470.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore ESG weekly oil data showed gasoline inventory increased by 1.09 million barrels to 16.91 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.04 million barrels to 8.60 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.44 million barrels to 19.94 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 45.44 million barrels [2][3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 5 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan and Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 15.00 yuan/ton to 2320 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 103 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The current price suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, limiting the upside [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton, and those in Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 30 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: The import window has opened, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, short on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities such as copper and crude oil rose sharply but fell back after the night session. The short - term market is priced by funds with low correlation to fundamentals. Bulls and bears have different views on the market [11]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. Postpone adding or opening positions for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 168 yuan to 5063 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable or changed slightly, the overall operating rate was 78.9%, and the downstream operating rate was 44.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 1.8 tons to 29 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 120.6 tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support it, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene rose, and the basis widened. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the port inventory continued to increase [19]. - **Strategy**: The upward valuation repair space of styrene is shrinking. Gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 7014 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11% [22]. - **Strategy**: The crude oil price may have bottomed. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the demand side shows a downward trend in the seasonal off - season [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 6824 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The inventory of production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02% [24]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 98 yuan to 7282 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. The PTA load remained flat. The import of South Korean PX to China decreased in mid - early January, and the inventory increased in late November [26]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. There are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 62 yuan to 5270 yuan. The PTA load remained flat, and the downstream load decreased. The social inventory increased in late January, and the processing fee increased [28]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 44 yuan to 3913 yuan. The supply - side load increased, the downstream load decreased, the import to - port forecast was 14.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 tons to 85.8 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32].