公募基金仓位再均衡，周 期行业配置上行 2025年四季度基金季报 研究团队：邓宇林、包承超、肖遥志 报告日期：2026年1月25日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 ➢ 1、整体上，公募基金仓位下降，集中度稳定： 公募基金整体仓位小幅下降，而重仓股集中度较为稳定，权重股赚钱效应一般。 板块配置上，创业板配置上升，主板配置下降，科创板配置稳定；对港股的配置回落到16%附近。 ➢ 2.分规模看，公募基金规模、份额再度收缩： 整体上，四季度基金管理规模和份额均回落，其中份额收缩幅度达到10%附近。 各规模基金均从必选消费、TMT切换至周期。 ➢ 3.行业层面： TMT整体减配，电子、计算机、传媒三个行业减配比例均超过1%；通信行业的配置仍在提升，但头部标的的持股数量在减持（增 配主要来自行情上行）； 周期行业整体市场快速上行；有色和化工均明显增配，公募基金仓位开始再均衡； 其他行业，非银、机械的配置比例也明显上升。 ➢ 风险提示：全球地缘政治出现重大变化，导致全球市场风险偏好急剧变化。市场流动性超预期变化。历史数据不代表未来。 1 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 2 证券研究报告 * ...

- The report discusses a **quantitative timing model based on volume signals**, which indicates a "bullish" view for all major indices except the ChiNext Index as of January 23, 2026[30][31][33] - A **momentum sentiment indicator** is introduced, calculated as the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 Index with positive returns over the past N days. The indicator is smoothed using two moving averages (N1=50, N2=35). When the short-term average exceeds the long-term average, it signals a bullish market sentiment[32][34][36] - The **moving average sentiment indicator** is based on the eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233). The indicator assigns values of -1, 0, or 1 based on the position of the current price relative to these moving averages. A value greater than 5 indicates a bullish signal for the CSI 300 Index[40][44] - The **cross-sectional volatility factor** is analyzed, showing that the CSI 300 Index's cross-sectional volatility increased week-over-week, indicating an improved short-term alpha environment. Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices decreased, suggesting a deteriorated alpha environment[45][46] - The **time-series volatility factor** is also evaluated, revealing that the time-series volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices decreased week-over-week, indicating a worsening alpha environment. Over the past quarter, the CSI 300 Index's volatility was in the lower range of the past six months, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices were in the middle range[46][49]

Market Performance - Since October 2025, major indices have shown upward volatility, with the CSI 2000, CSI 500, and National CSI 2000 all achieving over 10% gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index has repeatedly surpassed 4000 points, reaching recent highs[1] - The top five performing sectors in Q4 2025 were non-ferrous metals (33.48%), national defense and military industry (28.59%), oil and petrochemicals (25.94%), basic chemicals (18.59%), and building materials (18.01%)[1] Fund Establishment and Positioning - A total of 100 new actively managed equity funds were established in Q4 2025, with a total share of 604.71 billion[2] - The average stock positions of various types of actively managed equity funds decreased compared to Q3 2025, with mixed equity funds averaging 88.69% (down 1.05%) and ordinary stock funds at 90.52% (down 0.52%)[3][31] Industry Distribution - The sectors with increased holdings of over 10 billion included non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials, while sectors with decreased holdings included pharmaceuticals, computers, electronics, power equipment and new energy, and media[4] - The top five heavy-weight sectors for actively managed equity funds in Q4 were electronics (22.89%), communication (11.14%), power equipment and new energy (9.29%), pharmaceuticals (8.1%), and non-ferrous metals (8.09%) with notable increases in non-ferrous metals (up 2.08%) and communication[4][47] Individual Stock Analysis - The top five stocks with the largest increases in holdings were Zhongji Xuchuang, Dongshan Precision, China Ping An, Xinyi Technology, and Shengyi Technology[5] - The largest reductions in holdings were seen in Industrial Fulian, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Ningde Times, Luxshare Precision, and Focus Media[5] Billion Fund Holdings - As of January 22, 2026, there were 31 funds with over 10 billion in assets, a decrease of 3 from the previous quarter, with significant changes in holdings for companies like Shengyi Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang[6] Hong Kong Stock Holdings - The top three Hong Kong stocks held by funds in Q4 2025 were Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and SMIC, each with a market value exceeding 18 billion, but all saw reductions of over 10 billion compared to the previous quarter[7]

Fund Position Monitoring - The median position of ordinary equity funds is 91.51%, and for mixed equity funds, it is 90.42%, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous quarter. The current positions are at historical percentiles of 92.19% and 95.31% respectively [1][6] - The average Hong Kong stock allocation for ordinary equity funds is 11.89%, down by 1.1% from the previous quarter, while for mixed equity funds, it is 14.56%, down by 2.54% [11][6] - The number of funds investing in Hong Kong stocks is 243 for ordinary equity funds and 1692 for mixed equity funds, with a total allocation ratio of 59.59% [11][9] Fund Holding Concentration Monitoring - The proportion of heavy-weight stocks in equity allocation is 55.03%, remaining stable compared to the previous period. The total number of stocks held by fund managers increased to 2467 from 2379, indicating greater diversity in stock holdings [10][6] Sector Allocation Monitoring - The disclosed allocation weights for the main board, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board are 49.04%, 20.96%, and 13.89% respectively, with a significant decrease in Hong Kong stock allocation to 16.11% [21][23] - The allocation to large cycle sectors increased by 4.3% to 26.13%, while technology and pharmaceutical sectors saw reductions of 2.94% and 1.59% respectively [23][21] Industry Allocation Monitoring - The top three industries by allocation weight are electronics (23.01%), communication (11.08%), and electric power equipment and new energy (9.28%) [26][25] - The industries with the most active increases in allocation are non-ferrous metals (1.22%), basic chemicals (1.13%), and non-bank financials (0.81%), while the most reduced allocations are in computing (-1.34%), media (-0.98%), and national defense and military industry (-0.75%) [27][25] Individual Stock Allocation Monitoring - The stocks with the highest absolute market value allocations are Zhongji Xuchuang (768 billion), Xinyi Sheng (638 billion), and Ningde Times (630 billion) [30][29] Performance Fund and Billion Fund Industry Allocation Monitoring - The top three industries allocated by performance funds are communication (32.74%), electronics (27.73%), and non-ferrous metals (12.72%) [34][35] - The top three industries allocated by billion-scale funds are electronics (27.21%), communication (13.47%), and pharmaceuticals (10.45%) [34][35]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index, which rose by 0.78%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Silver Nonferrous (+10.04%) and China Power (+5.53%) [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159233) has also shown a 0.94% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise, and is currently priced at 1.3 yuan [1] - The ETF tracks the CSI Free Cash Flow Index, focusing on cyclical industries, making it a useful tool for investors to capture structural opportunities amid economic recovery [1][3] Group 2 - The demand for AI computing power is experiencing exponential growth due to the increasing complexity of AI models and the expansion of application scenarios, with global AI server shipments expected to rise by 28.3% in 2026 [2] - The transportation sector is projected to see a historic high in cross-regional personnel flow during the 2026 Spring Festival, with an estimated 9.5 billion people expected to travel, driving demand in rail and air transport [2] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159233) is designed to select high-quality cyclical assets based on free cash flow, providing investors with a convenient way to invest in these sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector remains the main focus of the market, showing continuity despite a slight reduction in momentum, supported by high market risk appetite, reasonable valuations, strong overseas performance, and expectations of global liquidity easing [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 22, the ChiNext 50 ETF (159375) opened with a gain of over 1.4%, indicating a positive trend in the technology sector [1]. - The ChiNext 50 Index (399673), which the ETF tracks, includes 50 securities with high average trading volumes, focusing on large-cap leading companies [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook, particularly in sub-sectors where there may be a dual resonance of capital and industrial logic [1]. - The industry allocation of the ChiNext 50 Index emphasizes emerging growth areas such as electric power equipment and new energy, pharmaceuticals, and information technology, reflecting the overall performance of companies with strong growth and high technological innovation attributes [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that technological innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence and smart manufacturing, is a key driver for market indices, with strategic emerging industries pushing the index upward [1] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative has been included in the 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating accelerated technological breakthroughs and industrial applications [1] - The ChiNext 50 Index, representing new economy sectors, is expected to benefit from multiple drivers including technological innovation, industrial upgrades, and policy dividends [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159375) tracks the ChiNext 50 Index (399673), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20% and selects 50 securities with high average trading volumes from the ChiNext market [1] - The industry allocation of the index is focused on emerging growth areas such as power equipment and new energy, pharmaceuticals, and information technology, reflecting the performance of companies with strong growth and high technological innovation attributes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is witnessing a strong performance in the free cash flow index, with significant gains in related sectors, particularly in cyclical industries, driven by recent positive developments in the automotive and transportation sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Free Cash Flow Index Performance - The CSI Free Cash Flow Index (932365) increased by 1.08%, with notable gains from stocks such as Xinhua Department Store (+9.99%), Zhongmin Energy (+9.93%), and Pinggao Electric (+9.76%) [1]. - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159233) rose by 1.28%, closing at 1.26 yuan, and is designed to track the CSI Free Cash Flow Index, focusing on cyclical industries [1]. Group 2: Automotive Sector Developments - A new electric vehicle quota agreement between China and Canada is expected to accelerate the entry of Chinese electric vehicles into the North American market, with a reduction in tariffs from 100% to 6.1% for a quota of 49,000 vehicles annually [1]. - The China Automobile Association projects that vehicle exports will reach 7.4 million units by 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [1]. Group 3: Transportation Sector Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season is set to begin on February 2, with an expected 539 million passengers, marking a 5.0% increase year-on-year, which will boost demand in the transportation sector [2]. - The Spring Festival is anticipated to enhance profitability across various transportation segments, including railways, civil aviation, and logistics, leading to improved cash flow stability for transportation companies [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the ChiNext 50 ETF (159375) has experienced a pullback of over 0.5%, with market attention on the sustainability of the growth style [1] - Huaxin Securities indicates that the growth style represented by the ChiNext 50 Index may have a slight advantage due to a marginal easing of the funding environment and an increase in risk appetite [1] - The ChiNext 50 Index, which tracks the top 50 securities in the ChiNext market based on liquidity and average daily trading volume, aims to reflect the overall market performance of well-known large-cap companies in the ChiNext market [1] Group 2 - The index is heavily weighted in sectors such as power equipment and new energy, pharmaceuticals, and computer technology, showcasing the core characteristics of high growth and high technology content in the ChiNext market [1] - Last week, the marginal easing of the funding environment led to a bullish stock market and bearish bond market, with the growth style continuing to outperform value [1] - The yield on ten-year bonds rose by 3 basis points to 1.88%, and the term spread expanded to 59 basis points, indicating changes in market dynamics [1]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis [1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market trends, valuation metrics, and style performance without detailing quantitative models or factor construction [1][2][3] - No formulas, construction processes, or backtesting results for quantitative models or factors are provided in the report [1][2][3]