Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that convertible bonds with positive performance in Q2 2025 will be concentrated in high-end manufacturing sectors such as communication, electronics, military, automotive parts, transportation equipment, industrial control equipment, energy equipment, and electric power equipment, as well as in non-ferrous and basic chemical industries benefiting from price increases [1]. Group 1: Industry Performance Insights - The profit growth in the non-ferrous metal mining industry is expected to reach 41.7% year-on-year, driven by rising prices and increased production and sales of metals like gold, copper, zinc, and silver [2]. - The railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing sectors are projected to see a profit increase of 56% year-on-year, benefiting from global shipping recovery and significant orders for LNG carriers and container ships [2]. - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors, along with electrical machinery and general equipment manufacturing, are expected to maintain double-digit profit growth due to high demand for AI hardware, smart terminals, and industrial control equipment [2]. - The agricultural and sideline food processing industry is anticipated to experience a profit growth rate of 38.2%, primarily due to the demand for high-value-added products like prepared dishes and health foods [2]. Group 2: Company-Specific Performance - Among the companies that have disclosed their H1 2025 performance forecasts, 272 companies are expected to achieve a non-net profit growth of over 30% in Q2 2025, mainly in the basic chemicals, electric power equipment and new energy, machinery, electronics, and automotive sectors [3]. - In the basic chemicals sector, companies are expected to benefit from price increases in phosphates, pesticides, and refrigerants [3]. - The electric power equipment and new energy sector's high-performing companies are expected to benefit from increased overseas photovoltaic storage orders, domestic ultra-high voltage and smart grid construction, and rising domestic orders for new energy vehicles and military products [3]. - The machinery sector's growth is driven by high demand for industrial mother machines, semiconductor equipment, energy equipment, shipbuilding, and rail transit equipment [3]. - The electronics sector's growth is attributed to increased investment in AI computing power, accelerated domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and materials, and growth in consumer electronics and smart terminal shipments [3]. - The automotive sector is expected to see high growth due to increased sales of domestic new energy vehicles and accelerated exports of commercial vehicles and automotive parts [3]. Group 3: Performance Forecast Adjustments - A list of 13 convertible bond targets has been identified, which have seen their average net profit forecasts raised by over 5% in the past three months, with more than three forecasting institutions involved, indicating potential marginal improvements in performance [4].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Galaxy CSI 300 Enhanced Index Fund (007275.OF) - **Model Construction Idea**: The fund aims to track the CSI 300 Index effectively while employing quantitative methods for active portfolio management and risk control to achieve performance exceeding the benchmark index and generate long-term asset appreciation [2][38][60] - **Model Construction Process**: - The fund uses multi-factor stock selection, index replication, and event-driven strategies to enhance returns while optimizing the portfolio and strictly controlling risks [60] - The fund aims to control the absolute value of the daily tracking deviation between the net value growth rate and the performance benchmark within 0.5% and the annual tracking error within 7.75% [38] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance in generating excess returns, maintaining low tracking error, and effectively controlling risks [38][42][44] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Galaxy CSI 300 Enhanced Index Fund - **Annualized Excess Return**: 6.49% since inception [39][42] - **Annual Excess Returns (2020-2025)**: 13.24% (2020), 11.06% (2021), 4.17% (2022), 2.83% (2023), 4.49% (2024), 3.27% (2025 YTD) [43] - **Maximum Drawdown (2020-2025)**: -15.78% (2020), -12.43% (2021), -24.09% (2022), -17.98% (2023), -10.89% (2024), -10.00% (2025 YTD) [44] - **Sharpe Ratio (2020-2025)**: 1.50 (2020), 0.33 (2021), -1.27 (2022), -0.82 (2023), 0.94 (2024), 1.60 (2025 YTD) [44] - **Information Ratio (2020-2025)**: 4.01 (2020), 3.50 (2021), 1.72 (2022), 1.25 (2023), 1.48 (2024), 3.75 (2025 YTD) [44] - **Tracking Error**: Annual tracking error averaged 2.68% from 2020, with a maximum of 3.38%, meeting the target of staying below 7.75% [45] - **2025 YTD Information Ratio**: 3.98, ranking 5th among CSI 300 Enhanced Index Funds [45][47] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Multi-Factor Stock Selection - **Factor Construction Idea**: The fund employs a multi-factor model to identify stocks with high potential for excess returns based on various quantitative metrics [60] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Factors include valuation, momentum, quality, and risk control metrics - Stocks are selected based on their scores across these factors, aiming to optimize the portfolio for enhanced returns while maintaining alignment with the CSI 300 Index [60] - **Factor Evaluation**: The multi-factor approach has been effective in generating consistent excess returns and controlling risks [60] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Factor Stock Selection - **Excess Returns**: Contributed to the fund's annualized excess return of 6.49% since inception [42][43] - **Risk Control**: Supported low tracking error (average 2.68% annually) and controlled maximum drawdowns [44][45]

[Table_Title] 每日复盘 分行业看，30 个中信一级行业普遍上涨；表现相对靠前的是：通信 （2.78%），建材（2.11%），电力设备及新能源（2.10%）；表现相对靠后的 是：电力及公用事业（-0.25%），银行（-0.23%），交通运输（0.16%）。概念 板块方面，多数概念板块上涨，英伟达、BC 电池、PCB 等大幅上涨；肝素、 昨日触板、退税商店等板块走低。 资金筹码方面，主力资金 7 月 8 日净流入 114.50 亿元。其中超大单净流 入 151.39 亿元，大单净流出 36.89 亿元，中单资金净流出 148.69 亿元，小 单持续净流入 34.29 亿元。 7 月 8 日，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 以及中证 1000 等 ETF 大部分成 交额较上一交易日增加。华夏上证 50ETF、华泰柏瑞沪深 300ETF、嘉实沪深 300ETF、易方达沪深 300ETF、南方中证 500ETF、南方中证 1000ETF 和华夏中 证 1000ETF 成交额分别为 13.02 亿元、24.74 亿元、4.19 亿元、7.76 亿元、 10.07 亿元、10.52 亿元和 2.63 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent discussions on "anti-involution" are driven by policy guidance and market expectations, with a focus on promoting product quality and orderly competition while addressing low-price chaos in various industries [2] Group 1: Impacted Industries - The industries most affected by the current "anti-involution" include upstream raw materials related to real estate and infrastructure (such as coal, steel, and cement), equipment manufacturing overlapping with new productive forces (including automotive, electrical machinery, and electronic device manufacturing), and certain downstream consumer goods sectors (such as pharmaceuticals and food manufacturing) [3] - Emerging industries may experience a greater impact from "anti-involution," as recent government reports emphasize the need to cultivate new and future industries while addressing homogeneous competition in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [4] Group 2: Policy Implementation and Observations - The consensus is that the approach to "anti-involution" will be moderate, considering the significant presence of private enterprises in affected industries, with many sectors having a high proportion of private companies [6] - Employment concerns are also crucial, as the new industries most affected by "involution" employ a substantial number of workers, making abrupt capacity reductions potentially harmful to job stability [6] - The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding the form and intensity of "anti-involution" policies, with future market movements dependent on clearer policy signals [7] Group 3: Need for Comprehensive Policy Support - High-intensity capacity reduction may require comprehensive policy support, balancing social stability and the specifics of capacity overhang, including timelines for exit and risk mitigation strategies [8] - Observations should not only focus on supply-side changes but also on demand-side updates, as changes in supply structure are necessary but not sufficient for industry recovery [8]

- Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Model Construction Idea: The model is based on the principle of price momentum; Model Construction Process: The model tracks the weekly changes in the diffusion index of various industries, ranking them based on their diffusion index values. The formula used is $ \text{Diffusion Index} = \frac{\text{Number of Stocks with Positive Momentum}}{\text{Total Number of Stocks}} $; Model Evaluation: The model captures industry trends effectively but may face challenges during market reversals[5][27][28] - Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The model utilizes GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to analyze minute-level price and volume data; Model Construction Process: The model ranks industries based on their GRU factor values, which are derived from the GRU network's analysis of trading information. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Model Evaluation: The model performs well in short cycles but may struggle in long cycles or extreme market conditions[6][13][33] - Diffusion Index Model, IR value 2.05%, weekly average return 0.24%, monthly excess return -1.00%, annual excess return 2.05%[25][30] - GRU Factor Model, IR value -4.52%, weekly average return 1.32%, monthly excess return 0.77%, annual excess return -4.52%[32][37] - Factor Name: GRU Industry Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is derived from GRU deep learning networks analyzing minute-level trading data; Factor Construction Process: The factor values are calculated based on the GRU network's output, ranking industries accordingly. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Factor Evaluation: The factor captures short-term trading information effectively but may face challenges in long-term or extreme market conditions[6][13][33] - GRU Industry Factor, IR value -4.52%, weekly average return 1.32%, monthly excess return 0.77%, annual excess return -4.52%[32][37]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The US economy is showing signs of slowing down, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 2.6% annualized GDP growth for Q2, down 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [2] - Employment data indicates a divergence from economic trends, with initial jobless claims decreasing to 233,000, below seasonal levels, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [2] - Long-term inflation expectations have slightly increased, with the 5-year breakeven inflation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4% [3] Group 2: US Market Reactions - The US stock market rose by 1.7% due to stronger-than-expected employment data, alleviating concerns about economic slowdown from trade policy uncertainties [3] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts has diminished, with expectations returning to two cuts of 50 basis points, and the probability of a July cut dropping to zero [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain high volatility, with strategies suggesting a focus on short to medium-term US bonds [4] Group 3: China Economic Insights - China's economic growth is projected at approximately 5.2% for Q2, with June manufacturing PMI at 49.7, indicating a slight contraction [6] - Real estate investment is expected to decline significantly, with cumulative growth projected to drop to -11.2% due to seasonal factors and high base effects from last year [6] - External demand for Chinese exports may recover, aided by the easing of trade restrictions with the US and a rebound in US import demand [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic market is influenced by the central government's focus on "anti-involution" policies, which are expected to lead to significant policy announcements in the second half of the year [8] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 1.4%, driven by strong performance in banking and sectors benefiting from supply-side reforms [10] - The bond market experienced slight gains, with a balanced outlook expected in the short term, while potential policy adjustments could increase market volatility [9] Group 5: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The US dollar is expected to weaken in the medium term due to concerns over US debt sustainability and rising uncertainties from tariff suspensions [4] - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to maintain a neutral trend, influenced by both positive and negative factors in the trade environment [4] - Gold prices may experience short-term fluctuations but are expected to have strong medium-term support due to ongoing central bank purchases [4]

- Model Name: CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to outperform the CSI 500 index by selecting stocks with higher expected returns based on quantitative strategies[2][58] - Model Construction Process: The model uses a quantitative strategy to select stocks from the CSI 500 index. The portfolio's performance is evaluated based on its excess return over the CSI 500 index. The specific construction process involves selecting stocks with higher expected returns and adjusting the portfolio weights accordingly[58][61] - Model Evaluation: The model has shown a significant excess return over the CSI 500 index, indicating its effectiveness in enhancing returns[58][61] - Model Name: CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to outperform the CSI 300 index by selecting stocks with higher expected returns based on quantitative strategies[2][65] - Model Construction Process: The model uses a quantitative strategy to select stocks from the CSI 300 index. The portfolio's performance is evaluated based on its excess return over the CSI 300 index. The specific construction process involves selecting stocks with higher expected returns and adjusting the portfolio weights accordingly[65][66] - Model Evaluation: The model has shown a significant excess return over the CSI 300 index, indicating its effectiveness in enhancing returns[65][66] - Factor Name: Value Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The value factor aims to capture the excess returns of stocks that are undervalued relative to their fundamentals[2][70] - Factor Construction Process: The value factor is constructed by ranking stocks based on their valuation ratios, such as price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. Stocks with lower valuation ratios are considered undervalued and are given higher weights in the factor portfolio[70][76] - Factor Evaluation: The value factor has shown high excess returns, indicating its effectiveness in capturing the returns of undervalued stocks[70][76] - Factor Name: Residual Volatility Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The residual volatility factor aims to capture the excess returns of stocks with lower idiosyncratic risk[2][70] - Factor Construction Process: The residual volatility factor is constructed by ranking stocks based on their residual volatility, which is the volatility of the stock's returns unexplained by market movements. Stocks with lower residual volatility are given higher weights in the factor portfolio[70][76] - Factor Evaluation: The residual volatility factor has shown high excess returns, indicating its effectiveness in capturing the returns of low-risk stocks[70][76] - Factor Name: Non-linear Size Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The non-linear size factor aims to capture the excess returns of stocks with specific size characteristics that are not linearly related to market capitalization[2][70] - Factor Construction Process: The non-linear size factor is constructed by ranking stocks based on their non-linear size characteristics, which may include measures such as the square or cube of market capitalization. Stocks with specific size characteristics are given higher weights in the factor portfolio[70][76] - Factor Evaluation: The non-linear size factor has shown significant negative excess returns, indicating its ineffectiveness in capturing the returns of stocks with specific size characteristics[70][76] Model Backtest Results - CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio, Excess Return: 46.94%, Maximum Drawdown: -4.99%[58][61] - CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio, Excess Return: 31.61%, Maximum Drawdown: -5.86%[65][66] Factor Backtest Results - Value Factor, Excess Return: High[70][76] - Residual Volatility Factor, Excess Return: High[70][76] - Non-linear Size Factor, Excess Return: Significant Negative[70][76]

Economic News - The Ministry of Commerce aims to fully release the dividends of institutional opening-up by promoting pilot measures that meet the urgent needs of enterprises and the public, with a total of 77 pilot measures to be replicated nationwide [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will intensify efforts to rectify disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, requiring companies to report cost prices and warning of penalties for selling below cost [2] - The State Taxation Administration reported that tax reductions and refunds for technological innovation and manufacturing reached 636.1 billion yuan in the first five months of the year [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has completed the annual central investment allocation for the water conservancy sector by the end of June, increasing support for various water projects [2] Company News - Seres Group announced that its AITO Wenjie automobile has achieved cumulative deliveries of 700,000 units [6] - Yanghe Distillery is focusing on low-alcohol products to align with trends towards youthfulness and lower alcohol content [6] - Fuyuan Pharmaceutical received a drug registration certificate for a local anesthetic cream, indicating progress in its product pipeline [6] - Samsung Medical's subsidiary was recommended as a candidate for a major tender project worth approximately 306 million yuan [6] - Whirlpool expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a rise of about 559% year-on-year [6] Industry Research - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with major lithium battery companies announcing advancements in solid-state battery technology, aiming for higher energy densities and improved safety [18][19] - Solid-state batteries are expected to benefit from new application fields, particularly in eVTOL and humanoid robots, due to their superior performance compared to traditional lithium batteries [19] - The solid-state battery supply chain is gaining attention, with government support and industry advancements pushing the technology towards commercialization [19][21] - The mainstream development direction for solid-state batteries is the sulfide solid electrolyte system, which is favored for its high ionic conductivity and stability [20] - Investment opportunities are emerging in companies with leading solid-state battery technology and those involved in the supply chain, such as Guoxuan High-Tech and relevant material manufacturers [21][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (维持) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the development of the electricity market, which brings new opportunities for the electricity system [3] - The transition from passive reliance on natural conditions to active participation in market operations is a core variable for optimizing economic efficiency in the industry [8] - The report highlights the importance of electricity market trading capabilities, especially in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, where new projects will rely heavily on market transactions [8] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Electricity Market Development**: The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the electricity market, driven by reforms that enhance market participation and efficiency [3][8] - **New Energy Projects**: New energy projects in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are expected to shift from subsidy-dependent models to market-driven mechanisms, with specific pricing structures outlined for different project types [8] - **Software and Hardware Opportunities**: The report suggests focusing on companies involved in software applications for electricity trading and hardware that supports market transactions, recommending specific companies for investment [8] - **Active Value Creation**: The shift from passive to active value creation in the new energy sector is expected to unlock significant investment opportunities, with several companies identified as potential beneficiaries [8]

金融工程 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 11.85%，相对于上周下跌了 0.88%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 14.35%，相对于上周下跌了-1.59%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 18.06%，相对于上周下跌了 0.42%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 12.64%，相 对于上周下跌了 0.73%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 6 月 9 日到 2025 年 6 月 13 日正 面信号共出现了 2699 次，未来高点平均胜率为 28.25%，负面信号出现 3525 次，未来低点平均胜率为 71.88%。 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20250616-20250620） 本周指数普遍下跌 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍下跌，其中沪深 300 下跌 0.45%，中证 500 下跌 1.75%，中证 1000 下跌 1.74%。 从宽基择时策略来看，上证 50、恒生可持续发展企业指数、恒生香港 35 出现 看多信号，其余宽基信号为中性。 从行业形态择时策略来看，家电、综合、通信、纺织服装、消费者服务、交通 运输、石油石化出现看多信号，其余行业信 ...