Market Overview - The A-share market showed a general upward trend in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,455.97 points, an increase of 3.24% compared to the end of May. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices experienced significant gains [2][11][12] - In June, 23 out of 31 Shenwan first-level industries saw an increase, with the non-bank financial sector leading with a growth of 10.64% [12][41] - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, with a focus on enhancing consumption potential [3][44] Market Liquidity and Risk Sentiment - As of June 25, the A-share market's liquidity improved, with a net increase in major shareholders' holdings amounting to 46.132 billion yuan, and the total amount of A-share unlocks reaching approximately 215.756 billion yuan, an increase from the previous month [24][28] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased to 12,943.21 billion yuan, up 6.55% from May [28][31] - The sentiment in the market was influenced by the easing of US-China trade tensions and the announcement of new policies aimed at supporting technology enterprises, which helped boost investor confidence [32][44] Policy Analysis - The Chinese government has introduced a series of measures to support consumption and economic growth, including 19 key initiatives aimed at enhancing financial services for consumption [44][45] - The introduction of the "1+6" policy measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aims to better serve technology enterprises and enhance the inclusivity and adaptability of the system [45][46] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation is expected to provide a solid foundation for sustained economic recovery [3][44] Valuation Levels - As of June 25, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai 50 index is at a historical percentile of 78.44%, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels [41][42] - Most Shenwan first-level industries have seen an increase in valuation, with sectors such as retail, telecommunications, and electronics exceeding the historical 50th percentile for PE ratios [42][43]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3400 points, reaching a new high for the year, and total trading volume exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Major indices in the A-share market are showing significant gains, with a "three consecutive days of gains" trend [1] - The financial and technology growth sectors are performing particularly well, indicating increased market confidence [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - A joint initiative by the central bank and six departments has introduced "19 measures" to enhance financial support for consumption, serving as a key driver for the current market rally [1] - The results of deep reforms in the capital market are becoming evident, with ongoing policy efforts aimed at optimizing the market ecosystem [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Current A-share valuations remain attractive, with the emergence of new technology forces presenting long-term investment opportunities [1] - Foreign capital inflows have reached a record high for the same period, with international institutions showing a positive outlook on Chinese assets [1] Group 4: Cautionary Notes - There is a need to remain vigilant regarding the complexities of the international environment that may cause short-term disruptions [1] - The emphasis is on value investing to share in the long-term benefits of the Chinese economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to show a slight decline under the influence of international geopolitical risks, but overall support remains strong, with opportunities for low-cost positioning in quality dividend sectors [2][3] Market Overview - The A-share market has experienced a slight pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a low near 3350, but the decline is limited, indicating some support [2] - The overseas US stock market shows similar characteristics, with slight declines due to geopolitical influences and resistance at previous highs [2] - Increased risk aversion and a preference for quality dividend sectors have led to strong performance in low-volatility strategies [2] Quantitative Strategy Allocation - The recommended strategy allocation is: Enhanced Equity Strategy > Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy [3] - The A-share market is showing signs of stabilization in technology growth sectors after adjustments, leading to a relatively optimistic outlook [3] - The performance of dividend and low-volatility sectors remains strong, but there may be a potential reduction in upward momentum due to the risk of declining dividend yields [3] Overseas Market Insights - The easing of US tariff attitudes has led to a rebound in the US stock market and other regions, with economic data exceeding expectations [4] - Short-term opportunities in overseas markets may arise from further easing of tariff risks and progress in trade negotiations [4] - The Nasdaq is approaching its early-year highs, and while upward momentum is expected, caution is advised due to high index levels [4] Fund Strategy Performance - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Strategy recorded a return of -1.042% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 0.631% [5] - The Enhanced Equity Fund Strategy also saw a decline of -1.235%, with a cumulative excess return of 0.438% [5] - The Cash Growth Fund Strategy achieved a return of 0.031%, outperforming the benchmark [6] Fund Composition Insights - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund has maintained low volatility and drawdown characteristics, providing stable returns [12] - The Enhanced Equity Fund is still in its early stages, with performance closely aligned with the benchmark, but potential for stronger returns as market conditions improve [14] - The Cash Growth Fund has consistently outperformed its benchmark since its strategy launch, providing effective cash management options [15] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund has accumulated significant excess returns, benefiting from the global technology sector's growth [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the current performance of various sectors in the stock market, with a focus on the oil and gas sector showing strong gains amidst geopolitical uncertainties and a supportive long-term outlook for oil supply and demand [1][5]. Sector Performance Summary - The oil and gas extraction and service sector has seen a significant increase of 4.42%, with major stocks like Zhen Oil and Beiken Energy hitting the daily limit [2][4]. - Other sectors showing positive performance include gaming (+3.50%), film and cinema (+3.09%), and wind power equipment (+2.96%), while sectors like precious metals (-1.79%) and traditional liquor (-0.79%) experienced declines [2]. - The overall market saw over 3,300 stocks rising, indicating a broad-based rally [1]. Institutional Insights - Everbright Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook on the "Big Three" oil companies and the oil service sector, citing a favorable supply-demand balance in the oil market [5]. - Minsheng Securities suggests monitoring geopolitical developments and OPEC+ production levels, recommending investments in resilient oil companies with strong resource advantages [5]. - Fund manager Wang Zhangliang notes that while the A-share market is currently in a weak technical phase, it is supported by fundamentals, with a focus on oil and gas as a leading sector [7]. - Guotai Junan Securities emphasizes the importance of technology and new production capabilities, suggesting a "dumbbell strategy" for investment, balancing between technology growth and stable consumer sectors [7].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 海外局部地缘冲突扰动之下，A股近期将作何表现？ 智通财经搜集了10家券商的观点，大部分券商认为，中东冲突对中国资产的实际影响有限，内因才是市 场走势的主要矛盾。中国的确定性是当下中国股市稳定和阶梯式上升的重要基础，短期海外事件性冲击 引发的下跌反而提供布局机会。 国泰海通证券表示，外部疑云并不足以趋势性阻断中国股市，相反中国的确定性是当下中国股市稳定和 阶梯式上升的重要基础。股市预期和微观流动性均进入上升的趋势，继续看多A股，行情升势"未完待 续"。 "短期海外事件性冲击引发的下跌反而提供布局机会。情绪修复过后，内因仍是决定市场走势的主要矛 盾。国内经济平稳运行，在新的宏观变化出现之前，具备产业趋势支撑、有基本面改善预期的科技成长 板块依然有望是支撑行情的结构性亮点。"兴业证券指出。 华西证券进一步指出，虽然近期中东地缘局势再次扰动全球风险偏好，A股短期跟随震荡调整。不过地 缘事件对国内而言更多是情绪上的短期冲击，影响A股的核心因素还是自身结构问题。6月18日陆家嘴 论坛期间中央金融管理部门将发布若干重大金融政策，投资者对此抱有积极预期 ...

Market Outlook - A-shares are expected to experience a structural market in June, with a focus on core assets despite short-term downward pressure [1][2] - Institutions suggest maintaining dividend assets as a base while exploring growth and consumption opportunities, particularly in banking, computing industry chain, card games, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][5] Market Performance Review - In May, the three major indices saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 2.09%, 1.42%, and 2.32% respectively [1] - Daily trading volume in A-shares remained above 1 trillion yuan [1] Economic and Policy Factors - Economic recovery and positive domestic policies are expected to enhance market risk appetite, leading to a potential upward trend in June [2] - The stability of the Chinese economy and policy expectations may continue to favor Chinese assets, even amid global uncertainties [2] Sector Performance - In May, 25 out of 31 Shenwan first-level industries saw gains, with environmental protection, pharmaceuticals, defense, and banking leading the way [3] - There is a divergence among institutions regarding market style and focus for June, with some favoring technology growth while others lean towards large-cap value stocks [3][4] Investment Strategies - Suggested strategies include focusing on technology growth sectors, consumer sectors benefiting from domestic policies, and banking sectors with stable earnings and high dividends [5][6] - Specific recommendations include investing in robotics, artificial intelligence, and sectors with recent thematic catalysts, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and military electronics [5][6]

上证指数日K线图 郭晨凯 制图 ◎记者 汪友若 6月A股或延续震荡偏强走势 对于6月市场整体表现，多数机构认同，当前政策对于资本市场的重视程度较高，或对A股形成较强支 撑。 光大证券表示，当前A股市场的估值处于2010年以来的均值附近，随着政策的积极发力，中长期资金带 来的增量资金或将持续流入市场，对资本市场形成托底，A股市场有望震荡上行。 华金证券认为，当前政策基调仍然较积极，且基本面有望持续修复，6月A股可能延续震荡偏强趋势。 该机构分析称，首先，端午假期和"6·18"消费旺季可能使得6月消费维持高增速；其次，海外补库存可 能使得6月出口增速回升；最后，稳增长政策加速落地可能使得6月制造业、基建投资维持高增速。 中国银河证券称，短期内，市场或仍维持震荡格局，但在国内一系列稳增长政策支持下，市场调整空间 有限。长期来看，A股市场走势仍将体现"以我为主"的内涵。随着中央汇金公司发挥好类"平准基金"作 用，政策大力推动中长期资金入市，A股市场平稳运行将具备更为坚实的基础。 在申万宏源证券看来，现阶段是A股市场对宏观因素变化不敏感的窗口期，各项资本市场政策构建了A 股对宏观扰动的"隔离墙"。发展资本市场是当前政策 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets were relatively insufficient, with various broad-based and convertible bond indices showing different trends. Short-term performance may be pressured by tariff disturbances. Since May, the equity market's rise has been characterized by a rebound from oversold conditions. Investors entered the market actively based on odds considerations, and with institutional support, the market continued to rise. However, after the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high on May 14, the logic of the rebound has changed, and market divergence has increased. Considering the uncertainty of future tariff policies, style rotation may accelerate. The dumbbell allocation strategy may continue to be advantageous [1][2][7] - In the short term, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets are relatively insufficient and may be pressured by tariff disturbances. The risk of a significant short-term decline is limited, and the market will likely remain volatile. The dividend style benefits from policy support, and the technology growth style has re-entered the institutional view after a valuation correction [2][7] - It is recommended that investors focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. The market style will still tend to be stable. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1 Market Observation - From May 26 to May 30, various broad-based and convertible bond indices showed different trends, with some convertible bond indices leading the gains. Balanced and equity-based valuations were compressed [7] - The market was volatile this week, with insufficient winning probabilities for major indices and significant sector differentiation. Environmental protection, medicine, and military industries led the gains. The small-cap style was dominant. The bond market had low volatility and weak trading sentiment due to the lack of a macro trading theme and limited odds space [2][7] - The equity market may be pressured by tariffs in the short term. The risk of a significant decline is limited, and the market will remain volatile. After the high on May 14, market divergence increased, and trading volume decreased. Style rotation may accelerate, with the dividend style benefiting from policies and the technology growth style re-entering institutional consideration after a valuation correction [2][7] - In the short term, investors are advised to focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] 2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - Not provided in the given content 2.2 Individual Convertible Bonds - Not provided in the given content 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - Not provided in the given content 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Not provided in the given content

Group 1 - The article highlights the shift in stock market strategies post new regulations in the public fund industry, with a focus on "left-side stock selection" becoming a key strategy as underperforming stocks gain traction [1] - Fund managers are increasingly prioritizing stocks with upward trends rather than those based on valuation metrics, indicating a departure from traditional valuation screening [1][2] - The market has shown rapid sector rotation, with a lack of strong profit-making opportunities, leading to a wide fluctuation in A-share markets [3] Group 2 - Defensive strategies are being emphasized by public fund managers due to anticipated market adjustments, suggesting a shift in stock selection thinking [4] - The current market sentiment reflects a return of risk aversion, with the overall market entering a state of oscillation and lacking clear direction [4] - Historical patterns indicate that the market typically performs well in the first quarter, but adjustments are expected in June and July, following the completion of annual reports [5][6] Group 3 - The article suggests that while the market may experience adjustments, the underlying fundamentals and liquidity provide some support, indicating that the extent of these adjustments may be limited [6] - Future market movements may depend on macroeconomic events, including domestic policies and U.S.-China trade negotiations, with potential for a staggered rise in response to these events [6]

Market Trends - The stock market is showing characteristics of "east hammer west stick" guerrilla tactics, with left-side stock selection becoming a key strategy post new regulations in the public fund industry [1] - Many public fund managers are focusing on right-side upward trends rather than valuation screening, indicating a shift in holding styles [1][3] - The recent market changes have led to frequent portfolio adjustments by institutional investors, reflecting a dynamic trading environment [3][4] Investment Strategies - Low valuation and profit factors have performed relatively poorly in the market this year, with public funds favoring growth strategies amid a strong valuation uplift since 2025 [3] - Fund managers are increasingly seeking stocks with compelling narratives rather than low valuation assets, even in a hot Hong Kong market [3] - The current market environment is characterized by a cautious approach, with a shift towards defensive strategies anticipated due to expected adjustments [6][9] Economic Indicators - The A-share market remains in a wide fluctuation pattern, with a lack of strong short-term themes, although potential incremental capital inflows are noted [4] - The current economic cycle shows a flatter transmission of corporate and household deposits to profits, indicating a cautious outlook for credit expansion [4] - The market is expected to experience a narrow range of fluctuations, supported by fundamentals and liquidity, while adjustments may be less severe than in previous years [9] Tactical Approaches - The investment strategy is described as a combination of "prolonged battle, consumption battle, and guerrilla warfare," emphasizing the need for tactical positioning and risk management [6][7] - The market is likely to see adjustments in the second quarter, with a focus on macroeconomic events influencing future trends [8][9] - Defensive strategies are recommended, targeting low-valuation large-cap stocks and sectors with potential for recovery [9]