Group 1 - The gaming sector's strong performance has positively influenced the entire cultural media industry, with significant increases in related ETFs [1] - Four film and media-related ETFs saw half-day gains exceeding 2%, with the leading performers being the film ETFs [1] - The film ETF (516620) rose by 3.87%, while the film ETF (159852) increased by 2.7%, indicating robust market interest [3] Group 2 - The media ETFs (159805 and 512980) also experienced gains of 2.34% and 2.31% respectively, with the latter having a substantial scale of 31.56 million shares [5] - The overall share volume of media ETFs has decreased significantly this year, with the media ETF (512980) losing 597 million shares, reflecting a year-to-date change rate of -15.91% [2] - The media ETF (159805) saw a reduction of 8.8 million shares, with a year-to-date change rate of -43.04%, indicating a notable decline in share volume [2] Group 3 - The IP economy is gaining traction in the summer season, with positive developments expected from policy, industry, and corporate levels by Q2 2025 [3] - The card game sector's progress in the Hong Kong market has drawn attention to the card game segment within the cultural media IP sector [3] - The Zhongzheng Film Theme Index selects sample stocks from film content providers, distributors, and other beneficiaries in the A-share market [3][4]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has introduced the concept of "Chinese Prominent 10," which includes major private companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, aiming to identify core assets in the Chinese stock market with long-term dominance potential [1][2] - The total market capitalization of these ten companies is approximately $1.6 trillion, representing 42% of the MSCI China Index, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% in earnings over the next two years [1][2] - The "Chinese Prominent 10" spans various high-growth sectors, including technology, consumer goods, and automotive, reflecting new economic drivers such as AI, self-sufficiency, globalization, and service consumption upgrades [1][2] Group 2 - The selected "Chinese Prominent 10" companies include Tencent ($601 billion), Alibaba ($289 billion), Xiaomi ($146 billion), BYD ($121 billion), Meituan ($102 billion), NetEase ($86 billion), Midea ($78 billion), Hengrui Medicine ($51 billion), Trip.com ($43 billion), and Anta ($35 billion) [2] - These companies collectively account for a daily trading volume of $11 billion, indicating significant market influence and investment appeal [2] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for these companies is 16 times, with a forward price-to-earnings growth (fPEG) ratio of 1.1, making them more attractive compared to the U.S. "Magnificent 7" with a P/E of 28.5 and fPEG of 1.8 [2] Group 3 - Since the low point at the end of 2022, the average increase in stock prices for these ten companies has been 54%, with a year-to-date rise of 24%, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 33 and 8 percentage points, respectively [3] Group 4 - Following a significant market value loss of nearly $4 trillion since late 2020, private enterprises in China are showing signs of strong recovery, with profits and return on equity (ROE) rebounding by 22% and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, since 2022 [4] - Recent policies have increased the focus on private enterprises, boosting confidence among entrepreneurs, as evidenced by the private enterprise symposium in February and the introduction of the first Private Economy Promotion Law in April [4] - The rapid advancements in AI technology, particularly with the emergence of models like DeepSeek-R1, have enhanced market optimism towards technology-driven private enterprises [4] Group 5 - The concentration of the Chinese stock market is relatively low, with the top ten companies accounting for only 17% of the total market capitalization, compared to 33% in the U.S. and 30% in other emerging markets [6] - As leading companies expand their dominance, market concentration is expected to increase in the coming years [6] Group 6 - The investment interest from private enterprises is anticipated to support organic growth and acquisitions, aided by a more transparent and relaxed merger and acquisition framework [7] Group 7 - The average turnover rate of the top ten companies in China over the past decade has been only 12%, indicating strong competitive advantages and market "stickiness" among leading firms [8] - Factors such as capital expenditure, R&D investment, and market concentration are positively correlated with subsequent stock returns and market share representation [8] Group 8 - AI technology is reshaping the competitive landscape, with large private enterprises leveraging their customer base, data accumulation, and investment capabilities to excel in AI development and commercialization [9][10] - Private enterprises are leading the "going global" strategy, with overseas sales increasing from 10% in 2017 to an estimated 17% in 2024 [10] - Companies with strong balance sheets and cash flows are better positioned to capitalize on overseas market opportunities, where profit margins can be significantly higher than in domestic markets [10] Group 9 - Despite ongoing improvements in fundamentals, the valuations of the "Chinese Prominent 10" remain at historical lows, with an average trading valuation of 13.9 times the expected P/E ratio, only 22% higher than the MSCI China Index [11] - If these private enterprises achieve similar valuation premiums as their U.S. counterparts, their market concentration could increase from 11% to 13%, adding approximately $313 billion in market value [11]

2025 年 06 月 15 日 耐用消费产业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：许孟婕（执业 S1130522080003） xumengjie＠gjzq.com.cn yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：叶思嘉（执业 S1130523080001） 坚定持有新消费龙头，逐步进行高低切布局 消费中观策略&投资建议 ① 基本面有向好变化的低位传统核心资产，资本市场逻辑是高低切，新消费已经将表观 30-60XPE 的高标估值体系 确立，传统核心资产的估值水位也有望在流动性宽松叠加公募基准欠配背景下向上修复，尤其是寻找边际有变化的公 司，25Q3 开始财报基数下降景气度增速有自发回升趋势背景下，如安踏体育，雅迪控股，裕同科技；②坚定持有兑现 度较高的新消费龙头如：泡泡 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 房地产 Industry 2025下半年展望 | 房地产：信心、耐心与决心 >>点击图片查看全文<< 我们认为房地产市场"止跌回稳"是一个循序渐进的过程，可大体分为三个阶段，分别对应"住房交易量"、"房价"、"房地产投资"三类指标的企稳回 升；其中，步入正循环的核心点是供需结构改变带来的房价预期向上，或应成为市场耐心跟踪关注的关键转折信号。政策端促成"止跌回稳"仍需更大 决心，推进实体市场供需结构调整的措施落地和防范化解企业端衍生风险的措施补充是短期关键。我们此前在2025年度策略《 房地产：迈向止跌回 稳 》中提出三种政策强度情景；考虑到年初以来政策进展和市场表现、房地产政策约束条件的突破仍须时间、市场供需结构较历史上景气周期仍有 差距，我们认为对于房地产基本面磨底期的持续时长做充分估计，2025年演绎"中政策"情景的概率较大，其中仅销量表现由于926政策效果持续时长 超预期或略好于"中政策"情景。而一旦供需结构调整带动价格预期转为积极，我们认为总住房销量修复至历史合理水平对应的上行空间十分可观， 一、二手房占比结构的再平衡也意味着新房交 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250612 从"管高价"到"管低价"：如何提振核心 CPI？ 2025 年 06 月 12 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《并购重组驶入"快车道"助力科技 企业估值提升》 2025-06-08 《融资需求回暖，5 月社融增速或继 续抬升》 2025-06-08 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：今年 2 月以来，CPI 连续 4 个月负增长，但主要是食品和能 源项目驱动，代表经济整体供需状况的核心 CPI 同比增速自去年 9 月以 来明显回升。从核心 CPI 的三大组成部分来看，核心商品、居住服务价 格的上行空间都相对有限，如果要进一步提振核心 CPI，政策应着眼于 提振其他服务价格，服务 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|耐用消费品与服装 证券研究报告 耐用消费品与服装行业周报、月报 2025 年 06 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 多地首轮国补已用完，带动超万亿销售额 ——智能家居行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾 1）双周行情：近 2 周（2025.05.24-2025.06.06）上证综指上涨 1.10%， 深证成指上涨 0.51%，创业板指上涨 0.89%；智能家居指数 （399996.SZ）上涨 2.58%，跑赢上证综指 1.48pct，跑赢深证成指 2.08pct，跑赢创业板指 1.70pct。 2）细分板块：近 2 周，智能家居指数中，电子元器件及零部件、内容 /网络服务提供商、软件、智能家居产品及解决方案板块涨跌幅分别为 +3.28%、+2.46%、+4.04%、-2.69%；年初至今四个细分板块涨跌幅 分别为+5.42%、-3.46%、-6.21%、-0.83%。 3）个股：近 2 周，智能家居指数中，涨幅前五个股分别为胜宏科技 （+32.38%）、剑桥科技（+23.29%）、协创数据（+19.62%）、匠心家 居（+16 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|耐用消费品与服装 证券研究报告 耐用消费品与服装行业周报、月报 2025 年 06 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 多地首轮国补已用完，带动超万亿销售额 ——智能家居行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾 1）双周行情：近 2 周（2025.05.24-2025.06.06）上证综指上涨 1.10%， 深证成指上涨 0.51%，创业板指上涨 0.89%；智能家居指数 （399996.SZ）上涨 2.58%，跑赢上证综指 1.48pct，跑赢深证成指 2.08pct，跑赢创业板指 1.70pct。 2）细分板块：近 2 周，智能家居指数中，电子元器件及零部件、内容 /网络服务提供商、软件、智能家居产品及解决方案板块涨跌幅分别为 +3.28%、+2.46%、+4.04%、-2.69%；年初至今四个细分板块涨跌幅 分别为+5.42%、-3.46%、-6.21%、-0.83%。 3）个股：近 2 周，智能家居指数中，涨幅前五个股分别为胜宏科技 （+32.38%）、剑桥科技（+23.29%）、协创数据（+19.62%）、匠心家 居（+16 ...

第二，在耐用品消费方面，随着以旧换新政策的两轮高峰逐渐过去，去年针对汽车和家电、今年针对电 子产品的刺激政策所发挥的正面效应即将结束。预计到今年下半年，不仅难以再看到显著的正面效果， 甚至可能由于此前大规模刺激政策的影响，出现一些负面效应。毕竟，耐用消费品的购买需求增速不可 能长期维持在高速水平。 （原标题：陆挺：二季度GDP增速在4.8%左右，用有效的财政改革来改变市场预期） 近日，野村证券中国首席经济学家陆挺在CMF宏观经济月度数据分析会（总第78期）上表示，预计二 季度GDP增速维持在4.8%左右，但"抢出口"之后外贸会出现回头，以旧换新政策对消费的拉动作用也会 放缓，房地产的深度调整还将继续给稳内需带来影响。 陆挺建议，维持人民币汇率稳定是一项极为重要的政策安排，未来一段时间仍应坚守这一政策选择；同 时，加快财政支出的执行力度，有效的财政改革能够改变市场预期。 对经济形势的中短期分析 对于当前的经济运行情况，陆挺表示，在未来一两个月内，中国经济的运行状况预计将保持相对良好。 这一态势的重要原因之一是出口领域前期存在积压订单，由于后续约九十天内将进行贸易谈判，且谈判 结果存在一些不确定性，可能会引发"抢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2023, with significant growth in various sectors, particularly in new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles, leading to a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 6, 2023, among 544 Hong Kong stock funds, the highest net asset value growth rate exceeded 85%, with over 90% of these funds showing positive growth [1][2]. - In 36 thematic categories, 33 industry indices have risen, with durable consumer goods, consumer services, and pharmaceutical biotechnology indices each increasing by over 40% [2]. - The total scale of Hong Kong stock funds has increased from approximately 330 billion to 340 billion yuan this year [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The new consumption sector is recovering rapidly, with companies showing strong performance, supported by both short-term policy catalysts and long-term growth logic [3]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to continue its upward trend, with significant growth potential in the "outbound" market for innovative drugs [4][5]. - High-dividend assets are seen as attractive, with stable cash flow and strong fundamentals expected to perform well in the current market environment [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Fund managers highlight the potential in AI applications and smart driving as key investment opportunities within the new economy sectors [1][4]. - The "technology + consumption" growth stocks are favored by both domestic and foreign investors, with significant interest in new consumption areas such as trendy beverages and innovative products [4]. - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly in niches like electrophysiology and endoscopy, is identified as having substantial growth potential due to low penetration rates and opportunities for domestic companies to expand internationally [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India has unexpectedly lowered interest rates, which is anticipated to boost consumer demand for large-ticket items such as automobiles, electronics, and housing [1] Group 1: Impact on Consumer Demand - The significant interest rate cut is expected to provide immediate relief to consumers, leading to a potential surge in demand for durable goods, automobiles, personal loans, and housing loans in the current quarter [1] - As monthly payments decrease, there is an expectation of increased consumer spending on high-value items [1] Group 2: Loan Activity - There is an anticipated rise in loan balance transfer activities as borrowers seek to take advantage of lower interest rates to alleviate repayment pressures [1]