Group 1 - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association issued severe warnings to several asset management firms for their involvement in non-market-based issuances and financial misconduct [1] - Jiangsu Yuning was warned for assisting multiple issuers in non-market-based issuance and receiving large financial subsidies [1] - Zhongyuan Futures was cautioned for failing to prudently verify the relationships between entrusted parties and issuers, effectively aiding in self-financing issuance [1] Group 2 - Fuxi Asset received a serious warning for assisting multiple issuers in non-market-based issuance and charging substantial financial subsidies or holding service fees [1] - Shanghai Huancai was warned for facilitating self-financing issuance through nested asset management plans [1] - Zhongzheng Pengyuan was criticized for sending rating upgrade proposals to potential subjects and failing to maintain effective separation between rating analysts and marketing personnel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is facing a severe debt crisis with a national debt of $36.2 trillion, leading to a loss of confidence in economic data and a global trend towards de-dollarization [1][3]. Group 1: Debt Crisis and Economic Impact - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating three times, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 130%, surpassing Greece's crisis level of 127% [3]. - The U.S. Treasury is heavily reliant on new debt to pay interest on old debt, with 2025 projected to be a critical year for potential collapse [3]. - The U.S. dollar index has fallen below 98.5, marking a three-year low, while the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has surged to 4.43% [5]. Group 2: Government Response and Policy Actions - Trump's administration has attempted various measures to address the debt crisis, including proposing the sale of "immigrant gold cards" and signing a welfare reduction bill that cuts $1 trillion from healthcare [7][8]. - The "Big and Beautiful Act" has been criticized for disproportionately affecting low-income individuals while benefiting the wealthy [8]. Group 3: Global Reactions and Trends - China has sold a total of $28 billion in U.S. Treasuries over three months, reducing its holdings to a 15-year low, while Japan has also decreased its holdings by $55.5 billion [10]. - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with BRICS countries increasing their local currency settlement rates to 24% and Saudi Arabia accepting RMB for oil purchases [11]. Group 4: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The July employment report showed only 73,000 new jobs created, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, leading to the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau director [13]. - Inflation pressures are escalating, with the PCE price index rising to 3.9%, and economists warning that inflation rates could exceed 5% in September [13].

Group 1 - Trump indicated that Vice President Vance is the "most likely" successor for the 2028 Republican presidential candidate [1][2] - Trump suggested a potential ticket pairing of Vance and Secretary of State Rubio for future elections [2] - Moody's chief economist warned that recent indicators show the US economy is on the "edge of recession," with a weakening labor market and shrinking construction and manufacturing sectors [2] Group 2 - Multiple international financial institutions warned that investors should prepare for a decline in US stock prices due to high valuations and deteriorating economic data [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the US stock market faces short-term downside risks [3] - Morgan Stanley's analyst projected that the S&P 500 index could correct by up to 10% this quarter due to the impact of US tariff policies [3]

《东非人报》7月20日报道，尽管肯尼亚央行持续降息以刺激消费支出，但该 国仍面临着高利率的担忧以及投资和私营部门企业放缓的风险。全球评级机构 表示，全球金融市场信贷环境收紧将影响外资流入以及流向肯尼亚等新兴市场 和前沿市场的信贷。关税战不断升级引发的全球贸易政策不确定性，对世界金 融和信贷市场造成了沉重打击。穆迪公司在本周的简报中表示:"美国大幅提高 关税将影响贸易流动，直接或间接损害GDP增长，削弱财政和外部平衡，并收 紧融资条件，从而影响主权信贷状况。" （原标题：全球关税战威胁投资，肯面临利率飙升） ...

尽管如此，惠誉警告称，虽然关税本身不会成为评级行动的直接导火索，但它可能会加剧欧盟各国本已 存在的信用压力，为未来的经济稳定增添了不确定性。 关税冲击已在预料之中，但潜在风险依然存在 据见闻此前文章，欧美关税协议达成后，德法都不满意。周一，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨（Friedrich Merz）表示，与美国总统特朗普前一日敲定的协议将对德国、欧洲乃至美国本身造成"相当大的损害"； 法国总理弗朗索瓦·贝鲁（Franois Bayrou）更是将此协议形容为"黑暗的一天"，称欧盟"屈服投降"。 周二，欧元延续跌势，欧元兑美元下跌0.3%，至1.1555，为五周以来的最低水平。 然而，惠誉的核心观点是，此次关税上调的影响已在很大程度上被其分析模型所消化。Ed Parker向媒体 表示，15%的关税税率虽然与去年的1.2%相比是一个巨大的增幅，但这一冲击已在惠誉的评估框架之 内。 评级机构惠誉近日表示，美国对欧盟商品征收的关税虽然急剧上升，但本身并不足以直接引发对欧盟成 员国的主权评级下调。 据央视新闻，当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与欧盟达成贸易协议，对欧盟输美商品 征收15%的关税。然而，欧盟与美国 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has allowed citizens to make voluntary donations to help reduce the national debt through Venmo and PayPal, expanding payment options beyond traditional bank transfers and credit cards [1][2] - As of July 25, the U.S. national debt has reached a record $36.7 trillion, an increase of 87% from $19.59 trillion in 2010 [2] - The donation program, which has been in place since 1996, has raised only $67.3 million, representing a mere 0.0002% of the current national debt [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt are growing, with hedge fund founder Ray Dalio warning of increasing risks of a fiscal crisis unless urgent policy changes are made [3][4] - Dalio suggests that the U.S. should aim to reduce the federal deficit to 3% of GDP, a level last maintained during the Clinton administration, to stabilize markets and control interest expenses [4] - The recent "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is projected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the long-term fiscal outlook [5] Group 3 - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that the new tax and spending bill will lead to a direct spending reduction of about $1.1 trillion and a revenue decline of approximately $4.5 trillion, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [5] - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative," citing increased uncertainty and anticipated prolonged high interest rates [5] - The U.S. stock market has reached new highs, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth due to excessive liquidity from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, which may lead to a market correction [6]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged over 1%, reaching a five-week high of $3401.41 before closing at $3396.91, with a slight decline observed in the Asian market [1] - The U.S. stock market saw the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices hitting historical highs, with the Nasdaq briefly surpassing 21000 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a minor decline [2] - The trade issues have resurfaced as a focal point, with the White House reaffirming its stance on tariffs [3] Group 2 - As the August 1 deadline approaches, President Trump's trade negotiation stance has become more aggressive, with the U.S. Commerce Secretary stating that this date is a "hard deadline" for countries to start paying tariffs [5] - The European Union is considering a "nuclear option" in response to U.S. tariffs, which could involve significant retaliatory measures, including restricting U.S. companies from participating in EU public procurement [5] - The Federal Reserve's likelihood of a rate cut in July is nearly zero, with traders now believing there is over a 50% chance of a cut in September [7] Group 3 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "deteriorating," predicting default rates for high-yield bonds and leveraged loans to rise by 2025 [8] - Wall Street institutions are increasingly optimistic about the U.S. stock market, with Goldman Sachs forecasting the S&P 500 to rise to 6900 points in the next 12 months [10] - Foreign capital is re-evaluating Chinese assets, with around 60% of Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds planning to increase their allocation to Chinese assets, particularly in the technology sector [11] Group 4 - Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict include a large-scale airstrike by Russia, which involved 426 drones and 24 missiles, resulting in casualties [14] - The Russian Defense Ministry reported intercepting 74 drones, including those targeting Moscow, amidst ongoing tensions and preparations for a third round of negotiations [15][16]

Market Overview - International gold prices surged significantly on July 21, closing at $3,397.91 per ounce after reaching a high of $3,401.44 [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 3.43 tons, bringing the total to 947.06 tons [6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for June recorded a month-on-month decline of -0.3%, worse than the market expectation of -0.2% [2] - The six-month growth rate of the Leading Economic Index weakened, with the diffusion index remaining below 50 for the third consecutive month, signaling a recession [2] - The U.S. GDP growth is projected at 1.6% for the year, with tariffs expected to have a more pronounced impact in the second half [2] Geopolitical Developments - Ukraine and Russia are set to hold the next round of peace talks in Turkey, as stated by Ukrainian President Zelensky [5] - Israel's Foreign Ministry rejected a multi-national joint statement regarding the Gaza conflict, emphasizing Hamas's responsibility for the ongoing violence [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is at 97.4%, with a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [6] - The outlook for the U.S. credit rating has been downgraded by Fitch due to increased policy risks and economic slowdown [4]

Group 1: US Dollar - The Federal Reserve's research report warns of uncertain economic outlook potentially leading to zero interest rate risks [1] - Fed Chair candidate Walsh suggests interest rates should be lowered further [1] Group 2: Major Non-USD Currencies - ECB council member Centeno states that the timing and extent of further rate cuts are difficult to determine [2] - Fitch predicts Japan's debt trajectory will rise again by the end of this century [2] - ECB indicates that risks to financial stability in the Eurozone have increased due to rising global geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Japanese Prime Minister expresses regret over US tariff information and emphasizes ongoing negotiations [2] - South Korean Trade Minister states that a three-week extension of tariff suspension is insufficient and negotiations must accelerate [2] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizawa announces agreement with US Commerce Secretary to actively participate in trade talks, prioritizing national interests [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly keeps the benchmark interest rate at 3.85%, indicating a wait for more information to confirm sustainable inflation at 2.5% [2] - RBA Governor Bullock mentions a cautious and gradual easing stance is appropriate, with confidence in future rate cuts [2] - Australian Treasurer notes that the RBA's decision to maintain rates was not expected by millions of Australians or the market, clarifying future inflation and rate trajectories [2] Group 3: Other Developments - Emerging market ETFs see inflows for the sixth consecutive week, with China receiving the largest inflow [3] - The World Bank reports that Syria is facing a severe liquidity crisis due to cash shortages and broader disruptions in currency circulation [3] - Moody's maintains Israel's Baa1 rating while warning that conflict with Iran will increase fiscal pressure [3]

Currency Market Overview - The Euro is trading slightly lower against the US Dollar around 1.1765 during the European session [1] - The Australian Dollar is accelerating its decline towards 0.6500 in the Asian session [1] - The US Dollar is showing positive momentum against the Canadian Dollar, rising to the range of 1.3920-1.3925 [1] - The US Dollar has rebounded above 144.50 against the Japanese Yen [1] - The British Pound has increased for the fourth consecutive day against the US Dollar [1] Key News on Currencies Japanese Yen - Fitch Ratings states that a significant reduction in auto tariffs is necessary for a trade agreement between Japan and the US [2] - Moody's maintains that the Bank of Japan is likely to continue raising interest rates, but weak wage data complicates the situation [2] Australian Dollar - ING reports that ongoing inflation slowdown opens a window for the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider rate cuts [3] - Analysts warn that strong employment data in Australia raises concerns for the Reserve Bank's dovish stance [3] Other Economic Indicators - Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves increased to $152.6 billion at the end of June [4] - Thailand's consumer price index in June fell more than expected [4] - President Putin calls for expanded local currency settlements and proposes the creation of a new BRICS investment platform [4] - Economists predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will adopt a "dovish pause" this week to allow for economic assessment [4] Technical Analysis - The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) remains in the upper half of an ascending regression channel, with the RSI around 60 indicating a bullish tendency, though lacking momentum [5] - Key resistance levels for EUR/USD are at 1.1840 and 1.1900, while support levels are at 1.1740, 1.1700, and 1.1630 [5] - The USD/JPY is forming a symmetrical triangle, with the 50-day EMA at 144.90 acting as immediate resistance [5] - A breakout above this area could pave the way for a bullish trend towards the triangle's upper boundary at 146.50-147.00 [5] Australian Dollar Technicals - If the AUD/USD breaks the 0.6535-0.6545 range, it will activate a double top pattern, confirming a deeper correction with a target at 0.6510 [6] - For a bullish trend to resume, the price must break above the July 1 and 2 highs at 0.6590, targeting the Fibonacci extension levels at 0.6610 and 0.6640 [6] Upcoming Economic Data - Eurozone May retail sales data is scheduled for release at 17:00 [7] - The US global supply chain pressure index for June will be released at 22:00 [7]