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5月小非农“爆冷”!美国就业市场踩下急刹车?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-04 12:33
Group 1 - The ADP report indicates that U.S. private sector job growth slowed to a near standstill in May, with only 37,000 jobs added, the lowest level in over two years, and significantly below the market forecast of 110,000 [1][3] - The report shows a mixed picture in the labor market, with the goods-producing sector losing 2,000 jobs, while the construction industry added 6,000 jobs, partially offsetting losses in other areas [3][4] - In the services sector, leisure and hospitality added 38,000 jobs, while professional/business services and education/health services saw declines, contributing to the overall slowdown in job growth [3][5] Group 2 - The annual salary growth rate for retained employees is 4.5%, while for those who switch jobs, it is 7%, indicating a strong wage growth environment despite the slowdown in job creation [3][5] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with some economists expressing concerns about the limited hiring and low turnover rates, suggesting that the labor market may not sustain its current state for long [5][6] - Federal Reserve officials maintain an optimistic view of the economy, but there are rising concerns about the potential impact of trade policies on inflation and employment [5][6]
BCR聚焦国际金融热点: 非农震荡波冲击市场:黄金美元美债同步异动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 05:07
Group 1 - The April non-farm payroll report in the U.S. shows a mixed labor market picture, with 177,000 jobs added, exceeding the expected 130,000, but with a downward revision of 58,000 jobs in the previous two months [1] - The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%, while the annual wage growth is at 3.8%, which is below expectations [1] - The healthcare (+64,000), transportation and warehousing (+29,000), and financial activities (+15,000) sectors are the main contributors to job growth, while manufacturing continues to lose jobs [1] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, which is below the expected 0.3%, but the year-over-year growth of 3.8% outpaces the current inflation rate of 3.5%, indicating real income growth [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in May, but traders have adjusted expectations for four rate cuts within the year [2] - The labor force participation rate slightly increased to 62.6%, with the participation rate for the core working age group (25-54 years) reaching a seven-month high, indicating more potential workers returning to the market [2]
美国4月就业数据超预期,特朗普政府贸易战阴影下经济前景如何?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 10:11
Group 1 - The U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, slightly below the revised 185,000 in March, but still above the market expectation of 130,000 [2] - The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, aligning with expectations [2] - Financial markets reacted positively, with major indices on Wall Street experiencing significant gains following the employment data release [2] Group 2 - Employment growth was observed in sectors such as healthcare, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance [4] - Federal government employment decreased by 9,000 in April, contributing to a total reduction of 26,000 since January [4] - Average hourly wages increased by 0.2% to $36.06 in April [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to extend its pause on interest rate cuts, maintaining the key lending rate between 4.25% and 4.50% [3][4] - Analysts express caution regarding the potential impact of tariffs on job creation, suggesting that rising import tariffs and economic policy uncertainty could lead businesses to delay non-essential spending [4]
美国4月非农就业增17.7万,大幅好于预期,失业率稳定,薪资增幅放缓
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-02 17:10
Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 177,000 in April, exceeding expectations of 138,000, indicating a robust labor market despite trade policy uncertainties [1][2] - The average monthly job growth over the past six months was 193,167, reflecting a steady economic performance [2] - The healthcare sector led job growth with an increase of 51,000 positions, while transportation and warehousing added 29,000 jobs, the largest increase since December [4] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector experienced a decline, losing 1,000 jobs, contrasting with previous expectations of a loss of 5,000 jobs [4] - The federal government reported a reduction of 9,000 jobs, marking the longest streak of federal layoffs since 2022, primarily due to efficiency measures [4] - Private sector employment rose by 167,000, surpassing the expected 125,000, although it was lower than the previous month's figure of 209,000 [6] Group 3 - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a broader measure of unemployment slightly decreasing to 7.8% [7] - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.6%, with the participation rate for the prime working age group (25-54 years) reaching a seven-month high [10] - Average hourly earnings grew by 3.8% year-over-year, the lowest since July 2024, indicating a potential cooling in wage growth [9] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that the strong employment data may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in June, as there are no significant signs of job losses [14] - The market reacted positively to the employment data, with U.S. stock indices and bond yields rising, while the dollar index saw a slight decline [15]
非农报告超预期,细节暗示关税影响!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-02 12:52
Group 1 - The latest non-farm payroll report indicates that the U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding the expected 130,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-over-year was recorded at 3.8%, slightly below the expected 3.9% [1] Group 2 - The revisions for February and March non-farm employment numbers showed a downward adjustment of 58,000 jobs combined [1] - The healthcare, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance sectors continued to see job growth [3] - The construction sector added 11,000 jobs, which was anticipated due to expected spring activity [3] Group 3 - The transportation and warehousing sector added 29,000 jobs, potentially indicating an increase in tariffs [3] - Average hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations at 0.2%, compared to the anticipated 0.3% [3] - Year-over-year wage growth of 3.8% outpaced consumer price inflation, leading to real income growth [3]
美国4月ADP就业人数增长6.2万人不及预期 为九个月来的最低增速
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-04-30 12:52
Core Insights - The ADP employment report for April indicates a significant slowdown in job growth, with an increase of only 62,000 jobs, the slowest pace in nearly nine months, falling short of the expected 115,000 jobs and down from the previous month's 155,000 jobs [2][3] Employment Changes by Sector - Job growth in the goods-producing sector was 26,000, while the service-providing sector added 34,000 jobs [4] - Notable declines were observed in education and health services (-23,000), information (-8,000), and professional/business services (-2,000) [4] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw an increase of 27,000 jobs [4] Regional Employment Changes - The Midwest region experienced the highest job growth with 42,000 jobs added, while the South saw a minimal increase of 3,000 jobs [4] - The New England area reported a loss of 33,000 jobs, contrasting with the Middle Atlantic's gain of 43,000 jobs [4] Employment by Establishment Size - Small establishments (1-19 employees) added 20,000 jobs, while medium establishments (50-249 employees) contributed 21,000 jobs [4] - Large establishments (500+ employees) added 12,000 jobs, indicating a more cautious hiring approach among larger firms [4] Wage Growth Insights - Job switchers experienced a wage growth of 6.9%, the highest since December 2024, while those remaining in their positions saw a wage increase of 4.5%, slightly down from March [6] Economic Context - Economic uncertainty is impacting employer hiring decisions, with concerns about policy and consumer uncertainty [3] - The labor market is described as "mixed," with some sectors experiencing job losses while others see moderate hiring [11] - Consumer sentiment remains cautious, with worries about rising unemployment and stagnant income growth [8]
美国就业市场拉响警报:4月“小非农”断崖式暴跌!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-04-30 12:43
Group 1 - The U.S. private sector added only 62,000 jobs this month, marking the smallest increase since July 2024 and significantly below the expected 115,000 jobs [1][3] - Wage growth has also slowed, with salaries for employees staying in their current positions rising by 4.5% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from March, while salaries for job switchers increased to 6.9%, up 0.2 percentage points [3] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw the largest job increase, adding 27,000 positions, followed by trade, transportation, and utilities (21,000), financial activities (20,000), and construction (16,000) [3] Group 2 - The report comes amid increasing uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump's tariff policies on corporate hiring plans and the broader economic situation [3] - The ADP data serves as a leading indicator for the Labor Department's non-farm payroll report, which is expected to show a job growth of 135,000, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2% [3]
关税和国际贸易不确定性飙升 美国4月就业大幅放缓
news flash· 2025-04-30 12:30
Core Insights - The ADP report indicates a significant slowdown in hiring in April, with only 62,000 jobs added, the smallest increase since July 2024, attributed to uncertainties from tariffs imposed by President Trump on trade partners [1] - Wage growth has also declined, with year-over-year wage growth for job switchers increasing to 6.9%, up by 0.2 percentage points, while the growth for those not changing jobs decreased to 4.5%, down by 0.1 percentage points [1] Industry Analysis - The leisure and hospitality sector saw the largest job increase, adding 27,000 positions [1] - Other sectors that experienced job growth include trade, transportation, and utilities (21,000), financial activities (20,000), and construction (16,000) [1] - Conversely, education and health services lost 23,000 jobs, and information services saw a decrease of 8,000 jobs [1]