1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies have a positive impact on the market. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market news [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views Copper - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. Short - term, the Shanghai copper is predicted to operate in the range of 78300 - 79500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading or stay on the sidelines [3]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is in an upward trend with shock adjustments. It is recommended to take the opportunity to place long orders for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading [3]. Lead - The lead price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 16500 - 17200 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel - In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to moderately hold short positions at high prices for nickel, with the main contract operating in the range of 120000 - 124000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, range trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The tin price is expected to oscillate within the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading and continue to monitor supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Due to various market rumors, the risks in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are relatively high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium price is expected to continue its strong trend. It is recommended to trade cautiously and continue to monitor upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.2 Metal Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the global inventory of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, the global copper inventory increased by 1.27% week - on - week, the global aluminum inventory decreased by 1.38% week - on - week, and the global zinc inventory increased by 8.38% week - on - week [9]. 3.3 Macro Hotspots 3.3.1 Current Week's Macro Data - From August 11 - 17, a series of macro - economic data were released. For example, the eurozone's August ZEW economic sentiment index was 25.1, the US July core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and China's July M2 money supply year - on - year was 8.8% [13]. 3.3.2 Sino - US Trade and Financial Data - Since August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff has been suspended for 90 days again. In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales in July slowed down to 3.7%, and the real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year [14][15][16][17]. 3.3.3 US Economic Data - In July, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since February. The US July PPI year - on - year soared from 2.3% to 3.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.9%, a three - year high. The US July customs tariff revenue reached 28 billion US dollars, a record high, but the fiscal deficit still expanded [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Next Week's Macro Data Calendar - From August 18 - 24, important macro - economic data such as the US July new housing starts month - on - month, China's August LPR, and the eurozone's July core harmonized CPI year - on - year final value are scheduled to be released [22]. 3.4 Market Trends and Key Data Tracking - For each metal, the report provides market trend charts (monthly, daily, quarterly lines) and key data tracking, including inventory, spot premium and discount, institutional positions, etc. For example, for copper, it shows the Shanghai copper main contract's monthly line, daily line, and LME copper's relevant data [26][27][28][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with an unchanged fundamental surplus. However, LME inventories are continuously decreasing, and domestic bullish sentiment is strong, making it difficult for zinc prices to decline rapidly. Considering that the rebound in zinc prices suppresses the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers and the hedging pressure after the rise in zinc prices, the strategy is still to short on rallies, with an operating range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.76% to 22,400 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price rose 0.87% to 22,515 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 3.83% to 2,834 US dollars/ton [12]. 2. Raw Material Side 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate port inventories continued to decline. As of August 8, Lianyungang imported zinc ore inventory was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; the total inventory of 7 ports was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,000 tons [23][25]. - Zinc concentrate profits recovered with the rise in zinc prices. As of August 7, zinc concentrate enterprise production profit was 4,052 yuan/metal ton. In June, zinc concentrate imports were 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%; from January to June, cumulative imports were 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74% [26][32]. - Import TC continued to increase. As of August 8, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index was 82.25 US dollars/dry ton [33][35]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - Refined zinc enterprise production profits continued to improve. As of August 7, refined zinc enterprise production profit was - 112 yuan/ton. In July, domestic refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,700 tons, and it is expected to reach about 620,000 tons in August [36][41]. - The Shanghai - London ratio declined, and the import window was closed. As of August 8, refined zinc import profit was - 1,753.52 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons [42][44]. 3. Demand Side 3.1 Galvanizing - Galvanizing开工率 increased by 0.58 percentage points to 57.35%. Some previously减产 enterprises recovered, driving a slight increase in开工. Terminal market orders were weak, with only tower orders being acceptable, and export orders were weakened due to tariffs [48][50]. - Galvanizing raw material inventories increased. At the beginning of the week, zinc prices were weak, and galvanizing enterprises replenished stocks at low prices. As zinc prices rebounded, purchasing sentiment weakened, and raw material inventories slightly increased. Galvanizing finished product inventories increased due to increased开工 and average orders [51][53]. 3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - Zinc alloy prices rebounded. Zamak3 zinc alloy average price rose 0.74% to 23,095 yuan/ton, and Zamak5 zinc alloy average price rose 0.72% to 23,645 yuan/ton [58][60]. - Die - casting zinc alloy开工率 increased by 0.18 percentage points to 48.42%. Some enterprises resumed production, driving an overall increase in production. Terminal demand showed no obvious improvement, and if shipments remained weak, enterprise开工 might decline [61][63]. - Die - casting zinc alloy raw material inventories decreased due to high zinc prices and strong purchasing pressure. Finished product inventories increased slightly [64][67]. 3.3 Zinc Oxide - Zinc oxide prices rebounded. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% increased by 0.94% to 21,500 yuan/ton [69]. - Zinc oxide enterprise开工率 decreased by 0.45 percentage points to 55.68%. It was in the off - season, and开工 fluctuated slightly. Terminal rubber - grade orders did not improve, ceramic - grade demand weakened, and electronic - grade orders were acceptable due to grid support [70][72]. - Zinc oxide raw material inventories decreased as enterprises mainly made rigid purchases due to rising zinc prices. Finished product inventories increased [73][75]. 4. Inventory - Shanghai zinc social inventories continued to increase. As of August 7, SMM zinc ingot three - place inventories were 113,200 tons, and the bonded area inventory was 7,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons [78][80]. - SHFE inventories increased. As of August 8, SHFE inventory was 65,900 tons. LME inventories decreased. As of August 7, LME inventory was 81,500 tons [81][83]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows that the market has experienced both supply surpluses and shortages in different months in 2024 - 2025 [89].

Report Information - Report Title: "Accumulation of Inventory Continues, Macroeconomic Factors Affect Prices" - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Jundong - Company: Zhongtai Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The LME zinc price has risen due to the weakening of the US dollar and the warming of China's macro - economy, and the domestic zinc inventory is increasing [6][47] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The LME zinc price has increased under the influence of a weaker US dollar and positive trends in China's macro - economy [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Multiple charts show the historical data of LME and SHFE zinc inventory and warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [9] 2. Raw Material End - **Processing Fees**: The supply of zinc concentrate in the market is becoming looser, and the domestic concentrate processing fee (TC) remains stable at 3900 yuan/metal ton [14] - **Zinc Concentrate开工率**: Charts present the historical data of zinc concentrate new sample开工率, large - scale, small - scale and medium - scale mine开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [17] - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: Charts show the historical data of global zinc concentrate monthly output, SMM zinc concentrate new sample output, zinc concentrate monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [19] - **Refined Zinc Monthly Output**: Charts display the historical data of SMM zinc ingot monthly output and its predicted value from 2020 - 2025 [22] - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for raw material procurement [23] 3. Smelting End - **Refined Zinc Import**: Charts show the historical data of refined zinc monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [28] - **Refined Zinc开工**: The profit margin of smelters is continuously expanding, benefiting from the increase in TC and the increase in by - product sulfuric acid revenue, and the smelting profit has improved significantly compared with the previous period [29] - **Refined Zinc Output**: Some enterprises have resumed production after maintenance, and the overall开工率 has increased due to the improved processing economy of imported ores [32] 4. Demand End - **Refined Zinc Export**: Charts show the historical data of China's refined zinc monthly export volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [37] - **Downstream Inventory**: Charts present the historical data of SMM downstream zinc processing material enterprise monthly raw material inventory, smelter zinc alloy monthly finished product inventory, smelter zinc ingot monthly finished product inventory, smelter monthly finished product inventory days and SMM refined zinc smelter monthly finished product inventory from 2020 - 2025 [39] - **Downstream Output and开工率**: July - August is the traditional consumption off - season, and terminal orders are weak. Charts show the historical data of SMM galvanized weekly output, SMM galvanized weekly开工率, SMM die - casting weekly output, SMM die - casting weekly开工率, SMM zinc oxide weekly output and SMM zinc oxide weekly开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [41][42] - **Product Prices**: Charts show the historical data of Zamak5 zinc alloy average price, Zamak3 zinc alloy average price, zinc oxide ≥99.7% average price and hot - dip galvanized national average price from 2020 - 2025 [43] 5. Zinc Inventory - As of August 7, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 113,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared with July 31 and an increase of 5,900 tons compared with August 4, indicating an increase in domestic inventory [47] - Charts show the historical data of SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin three - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM zinc ingot bonded area weekly inventory, SMM refined zinc smelter sample enterprise weekly finished product inventory (factory warehouse inventory and in - transit inventory) from 2020 - 2025 [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - After the previous downstream restocking ended, zinc price rebounds led to a cold spot market with an expanding spot discount. Supply pressure is increasing, while consumption, though showing some resilience, cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, leading to a trend of inventory accumulation and putting pressure on zinc prices. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$10.87/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of 35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,330 yuan/ton, closed at 22,380 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 85,449 lots, and the open interest was 98,472 lots. The highest price was 22,395 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,250 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 5, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 107,300 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 92,275 tons, a change of -4,725 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: After downstream restocking, zinc price rebounds made spot transactions cold and spot discounts expand. [4] - **Supply**: In July, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The expected production in August is 620,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25%, and supply pressure continues to increase. [4] - **Cost**: There is no interference in overseas mines, and the domestic concentrate treatment charge (TC) has increased by 100 yuan/ton, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. [4] - **Consumption**: Downstream operating rates show relative resilience, but overall consumption cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, resulting in a trend of inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the zinc market show strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, providing limited support for zinc prices. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, weakening the upward pressure on non - ferrous metals. Considering the possible recurrence of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the downward space for zinc prices is also limited. It is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate within the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton in the short term. Continued attention should be paid to macroeconomic conditions and downstream consumption [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 2.07% to 22,230 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main SHFE zinc contract dropped by 2.47% to 22,320 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) declined by 3.52% to 2,729.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report provides historical data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading volume - to - open interest ratio, and SHFE - LME ratio (excluding exchange rate impact) [15]. It also shows data on spot premium/discount in different regions and spreads between different contract months [17]. 3.2 Raw Material and Production 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Port Inventory**: As of August 1, the inventory of imported zinc ore at Lianyungang Port was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 333,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21,000 tons [24]. - **Profit**: As of August 1, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,984 yuan/metal ton. In June, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74% [31]. - **TC**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee increased to 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index rose to 78.75 US dollars/dry ton [3]. 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - **Production**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of August 1, the production profit was - 254 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35,700 tons, and it is expected that the production in July will increase to about 600,000 tons [43]. - **Import**: The import profit window was closed. As of August 1, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,577.43 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons [47][48]. 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Galvanizing - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 2.65 percentage points to 56.77%. Black metal prices first rose and then fell, leading to poor sales of galvanized products, weakened orders, and some enterprises reduced their operating rates to consume existing inventories [54]. - **Inventory**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased. Despite the continuous decline in zinc ingot prices during the week, downstream buyers mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, with more orders placed but less actual transactions. Weak orders led to the accumulation of finished product inventory [57]. 3.3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - **Price**: The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys decreased by 2.01% and 1.96% respectively, to 22,925 yuan/ton and 23,475 yuan/ton [64]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 2.79 percentage points to 48.24%. It is the consumption off - season, and although some enterprises resumed production, the overall operating rate still declined. In terms of terminal demand, orders for real - estate hardware, luggage zippers, etc. were average, and orders for electronic products were good but accounted for a relatively low proportion, providing limited support for enterprise production [67]. - **Inventory**: Die - casting zinc alloy enterprises' raw material inventory increased slightly as alloy factories' purchasing enthusiasm slightly recovered during the week of zinc price decline, but still mainly for rigid demand. Finished product inventory decreased [70]. 3.3.3 Zinc Oxide - **Price**: The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) decreased by 1.84% to 21,300 yuan/ton [78]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased slightly by 0.14 percentage points to 56.13%. In the terminal market, it is the off - season for domestic automobile production and sales, the rubber - grade market is average, and the feed - grade and ceramic - grade zinc oxide markets are weak due to the off - season. Electronic - grade orders are relatively strong supported by power grid demand [81]. - **Inventory**: Zinc oxide enterprises' raw material inventory decreased slightly as enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases during the week of zinc price decline. Finished product inventory increased [84]. 3.4 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: As of July 31, the SMM three - location zinc ingot inventory was 103,200 tons, showing an increase. At the beginning of the week, although zinc prices declined, downstream purchases were limited during the off - season, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The SMM zinc ingot bonded - area inventory was 7,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons [92]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of August 1, the SHFE inventory was 61,700 tons, showing an increase. As of July 31, the LME inventory was 100,800 tons, showing a decrease [95]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the production was 585,000 tons, the import volume was 25,000 tons, the export volume was 200 tons, the apparent consumption was 610,000 tons, the actual consumption was 586,000 tons, and the monthly supply - demand balance was a surplus of 24,000 tons [101].

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The absolute price of zinc has declined, and the spot market trading has improved. However, the spot premium remains weak. The cost of imported ore TC is rising, and the smelting profit is increasing. The supply pressure in August remains high, and the social inventory is showing a cumulative trend. The zinc price is under pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure. [4] Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$2.69/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 0 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -40 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On July 31, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,625 yuan/ton and closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 182,660 lots, and the open interest was 110,481 lots. The highest price was 22,685 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,295 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 103,200 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 104,800 tons, a decrease of 4,250 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - The spot market trading has improved as downstream buyers purchase at low prices, but the spot premium remains weak. The domestic ore tender price for the new month is not settled, and the imported ore TC is rising, with the highest offer reaching $85/ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the supply pressure in August remains high. The smelting plants have sufficient raw material reserves and low procurement enthusiasm for ores, so the TC is expected to continue rising. The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, but the consumption growth is lower than the supply growth, and the social inventory is accumulating, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. The zinc price is under pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The zinc market is continuing to accumulate inventory. The prices of both Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc futures have declined, with the Shanghai zinc main - contract closing price at 22345 yuan/ton, down 1.43%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price at 2795.5 dollars/ton, down 0.68% [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The Shanghai zinc main - contract closing price decreased by 1.43% to 22345 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price decreased by 0.68% to 2795.5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main - contract increased by 41252 to 182660 lots, while the LME zinc trading volume decreased by 701 to 8740 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai zinc main - contract decreased by 5764 to 110481 lots, and the LME zinc open interest increased by 1164 to 189911 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The Shanghai 0 zinc premium increased by 10 to 0 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 1.23 to - 2.69 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory decreased by 174 to 15058 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4250 to 104800 tons [1]. 3.2 News - The US is increasing pressure as the tariff deadline approaches, with multiple countries sending delegations to Washington for negotiations. Trump announced an agreement with South Korea and plans to sign a new executive order on Thursday to impose higher tariffs on countries that fail to reach trade agreements [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook according to the defined range of [-2, 2] where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market has weakened, and the spot premium has generally declined steadily. The supply pressure in August remains high, and the social inventory shows a trend of accumulation. Due to the current consumption off - season and supply pressure, zinc prices face significant pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$3.92 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,680 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 10 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,660 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,640 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 50 yuan per ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 30, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,640 yuan per ton, closed at 22,670 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 141,408 lots, and the open interest was 116,245 lots. The highest price was 22,770 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,610 yuan per ton [2]. Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 103,700 tons, a change of 5,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 109,050 tons, a change of - 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - Downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market has weakened, and traders have a mentality of supporting prices. The domestic ore new - month tender price has not been finalized, and the imported ore TC is still rising, with the highest offer reaching $85 per ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the supply pressure in August remains high. The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, but the social inventory is accumulating, and the zinc price is under pressure [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - For copper, the current demand is seasonally weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment motivation, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained on Shanghai copper, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly from January to May, and August is a seasonal off - season for demand. Inventory may continue to accumulate slightly in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, as well as far - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. - For stainless steel, supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. - For lead, the price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. - For tin, the price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased from 180 to 110, and the warehouse receipt increased by 251. The spot import profit increased by 216.25, and the three - month import profit increased by 203.83 [1]. - **Analysis**: The demand is currently weak, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 40, and the domestic alumina price increased by 1. The social inventory showed a small change, and the exchange inventory remained the same [1]. - **Analysis**: Supply increased slightly from January to May, August is a seasonal off - season for demand, and inventory may continue to accumulate slightly. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and arbitrage opportunities [1][2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the zinc price fluctuated narrowly. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,350. The import profit of Shanghai zinc increased [5]. - **Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 900. The import profit of spot nickel decreased by 660.34 [6]. - **Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Analysis**: Supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of lead increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,700. The import profit of spot lead increased by 71.14 [8]. - **Analysis**: The price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. Tin - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot import profit of tin decreased by 2,016.08, and the LME inventory increased by 35. The LME C - 3M increased by 31 [12]. - **Analysis**: The price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the 421 Yunnan basis and 421 Sichuan basis changed, and the 553 East China basis and 553 Tianjin basis also changed. The number of warehouse receipts changed slightly [15]. - **Analysis**: The production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 750, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 700. The basis of the main contract increased by 1,530 [17]. - **Analysis**: The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating with a bearish bias. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - After the overseas short squeeze risk is released, zinc prices are expected to return to fundamental logic. Currently in the off - season for consumption and facing supply pressure, zinc prices are under significant pressure [3] 3. Summary by Content Important Data - As of July 25, 2025, the LME zinc price increased by 3.16% to $2,840.5 per ton from the previous week, and the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 2.65% to 22,885 yuan per ton. The LME zinc spot premium (0 - 3) changed from $4.75 per ton last week to - $1.96 per ton [1] - As of the week ending July 25, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates in SMM remained flat at 3,800 yuan per metal ton compared to the previous week. The weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates rose by $2 - 3 per ton to around $76 per ton. The current high - price for imported dollars is $85 per dry ton, generally ranging from $60 - 70 per dry ton, and the latest tender results for domestic mines have not been finalized [1] - In terms of consumption, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises increased by 0.3% to 59.42% from the previous week, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 0.92% to 51.03%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.33% to 55.99% [1] - According to SMM statistics, as of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions of SMM was 98,300 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from the previous week. The warrant inventory increased by 1,928 tons to 13,289 tons from the previous week, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 tons to 115,775 tons [1] - As of July 24, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises in the industry (excluding by - product income) was about - 140 yuan per ton, and the profit after adding by - product income was about 1,200 yuan per ton [2] Market Analysis - Last week, due to the combined factors of market sentiment explosion and overseas short squeezes, the zinc futures price rose significantly, but the demand in the spot market did not improve, and the spot premium declined rapidly [3] - On the cost side, the new monthly tender price for domestic mines has not been finalized, and the TC for imported mines continues to rise, with the highest offer reaching $85 per ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the expectation of increased supply remains unchanged. Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and are not very motivated to purchase from the mine end. It is expected that the TC will continue to rise [3] - On the consumption side, the operating rate of downstream enterprises shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad, but it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory is showing a cumulative trend, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year [3]