Report on Polysilicon 1. Core View - Spot prices are stable, polysilicon futures are oscillating and falling. In June, supply and demand are expected to be weak. If there is no further production cut in polysilicon, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that long - position holders close their positions in advance [1]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: N - type re - feeding material, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon average prices remained unchanged on June 5th compared to June 4th. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower material increased by 35.64% and 7.42% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: PS2506 decreased by 1.47% to 34540 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 and PS2507 decreased by 46.34% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 2.69% to 13.04 GM, while polysilicon production increased by 1.85% to 2.20 million tons [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.73%. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, and net exports remained stable [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.37% to 26.90 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 7.81% to 20.02 GM. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 5.73% to 2030 [1]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Core View - Industrial silicon futures opened lower, oscillated, and slightly declined. The fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Although demand may recover, it is difficult to digest the relatively high supply increase. Supply is expected to grow, and prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to coal price changes [3]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, while the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 0.56%. The basis of various varieties decreased [3]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between 2506 and 2507 increased by 86.54%, while the spread between 2507 and 2508 decreased by 150.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 6.48%, and the production of polysilicon increased by 0.73% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory - warehouse inventories increased slightly, while social inventory decreased by 0.34%. Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.80%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.17% [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Core View - **Soda Ash**: Affected by macro news, the soda ash futures rebounded at night. In the long - term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance. In June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. Consider a 7 - 9 positive spread and short - term short - selling on the far - month contract [4]. - **Glass**: Affected by macro news, the glass futures rebounded at night. The spot market is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation after June. The industry needs capacity clearance, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [4]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, and Central China glass quotes remained unchanged, while South China quotes decreased by 0.76%. Glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 2.09% and 2.53% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.36% and 1.76% respectively [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash start - up rate decreased slightly, weekly production increased by 1.08%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.37%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 4.79% [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [4]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Core View - In the short term, the macro - economic recovery drives rubber prices to rebound. However, under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Consider short - selling when the price exceeds 14000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to raw material supply in various producing areas and macro - event disturbances [5]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 1.12%. The basis of whole latex increased by 101.96%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.74% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.39%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.40% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand, Indonesia, and India's rubber production decreased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. Domestic tire production, tire exports, natural rubber imports, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber decreased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.06%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 59.49% [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: June 06, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of Si2507 was 7,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56%. The trading volume was 417,845 lots, and the open interest was 183,965 lots, with a net increase of 3,637 lots. The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline. The price of 553 in Sichuan and Yunnan was 8,400 yuan/ton; the price of 421 in Sichuan was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the price in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang was 8,400 yuan/ton [4] - Outlook: The spot price continued to fall, and the losses have not yet led to a concentrated reduction in supply. The weekly output in the first week of June is expected to remain at around 69,000 tons. Different from polysilicon, the industrial silicon market needs to be vigilant about the resumption of production pressure during the wet season. There is no increase in demand in June. If the consensus on polysilicon production cuts is reached again, it will actually continue to be negative for industrial silicon. The organic silicon enterprises have been collectively cutting production to support prices since April, and exports are stable with little room for increase. The spot inventory continues to increase. The low point of the main contract price during the session was at a discount of over 1,000 yuan/ton and fell below the full-industry cash cost, showing signs of bottoming out in the short term. However, it is still difficult to improve the fundamentals, and short - selling funds are dominant. The rebound space is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly [4] Group 3: Market News - On June 05, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 61,309 lots, a net decrease of 494 lots from the previous trading day [5] - According to customs data, in April 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 60,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.19%. The overall export volume in April increased slightly compared with March. The overall overseas market was relatively stable, and the change in export volume was small. The average export price was 1,478 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.42%, mainly affected by the low price of the domestic industrial silicon market [5]

2025 年 06 月 06 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：商品情绪改善，关注上行风险 多晶硅：弱势基本面格局依旧 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Si2507收盘价（元/吨） | 7,135 | -145 | -205 | -1,405 | | | Si2507成交量（手） | 417,845 | -389,089 | -206,996 | 231,053 | | | Si2507持仓量（手） | 183,965 | 3,637 | -42,104 | 17,430 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2507收盘价（元/吨） | 34,540 | -515 | -560 | - | | | PS2507成交量（手） | 127,429 | -135,318 | -25,843 | - | | | PS2507持仓量（手） | 65,802 | -2,071 | ...

1. Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View In the context of expected increased supply and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to show a weak oscillation. It is recommended to hold short positions and observe the performance at the 13,000 level, while paying attention to the raw material supply situation in each production area and macro - event disturbances [1]. Summary by Relevant Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 4, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the full - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 255 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of cup rubber on the international market was 44.55 Thai baht/kg, down 1.40 Thai baht/kg from June 2; the price of glue was 56.00 Thai baht/kg, down 1.50 Thai baht/kg from June 2 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: On June 4, the 9 - 1 spread was - 832, down 25 from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 25, the same as the previous day; the 5 - 9 spread was 860, up 25 from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand's production was 1057,000 tons, down 435,000 tons from the previous month; Indonesia's production was 19,410,000 tons, down 1,520,000 tons from the previous month; India's production was 454,000 tons, down 76,000 tons from the previous month; China's production was 581,000 tons, up 423,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 78.25%, up 0.03 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.80%, down 0.16 percentage points from the previous week. In April, the domestic tire production was 102,002,000 pieces, down 5,444,000 pieces from the previous month; the tire export volume was 57,390,000 pieces, down 4,900,000 pieces from the previous month. The total import volume of natural rubber in April was 523,200 tons, down 70,900 tons from the previous month; the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 690,000 tons, down 70,000 tons from the previous month [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: On June 4, the bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 614,584 tons, up 385 tons from the previous day; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 17,641 tons, down 25,903 tons from the previous week [1]. 2. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View - **Glass**: The glass price will continue to be under pressure, oscillate weakly, and should be treated bearishly [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the medium - to - long term. In June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. If the maintenance situation is good, it will be beneficial to the June - July contracts. For trading, consider the 7 - 9 positive spread in the inter - month and short - sell on the rebound of the far - month contract for short - term operations [2]. Summary by Relevant Directory - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: On June 4, the North China glass quotation was 1,160 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the East China quotation was 1,290 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the Central China quotation was 1,070 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; the South China quotation was 1,320 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The price of Glass 2505 was 1,098 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Glass 2509 was 988 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 05 basis was 62 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: On June 4, the North China soda ash quotation was 1,450 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the East China quotation was 1,380 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the Central China quotation was 1,350 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the Northwest quotation was 1,080 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The price of Soda Ash 2509 was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; the 05 basis was 229 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Supply Volume**: On May 30, the soda ash operating rate was 78.57%, down 0.06 percentage points from May 23; the weekly soda ash output was 685,000 tons, up 7,000 tons from May 23; the float glass daily melting volume was 157,700 tons, up 1,000 tons from May 23; the photovoltaic daily melting volume was 99,990 tons, the same as May 23 [2]. - **Inventory**: On May 30, the glass factory warehouse was 67,762,000 weight - cases, down 7,000 weight - cases from May 23; the soda ash factory warehouse was 162,430 tons, up 2,200 tons from May 23; the soda ash delivery warehouse was 34,750 tons, down 1,800 tons from May 23; the glass factory's soda ash inventory days were 18.1 days, the same as before [2]. 3. Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View The industrial silicon price is still under pressure due to the difficulty of significant increase in demand and the expected growth in production. However, the rise in raw material prices is beneficial to strengthen the cost support, and the concentrated short - position closing will bring a wave of price increase [3]. Summary by Relevant Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On June 4, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon was 8,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 8,850 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 7,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: On June 4, the 2506 - 2507 spread was - 260, down 270 from the previous day; the 2507 - 2508 spread was - 10, up 5 from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 spread was - 10, the same as the previous day [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, the national industrial silicon output was 300,800 tons, down 41,400 tons from the previous month; Xinjiang's output was 167,500 tons, down 43,300 tons from the previous month; Yunnan's output was 13,500 tons, up 1,200 tons from the previous month; Sichuan's output was 11,300 tons, up 6,700 tons from the previous month. The national operating rate was 51.23%, down 6.57 percentage points from the previous month; Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.74%, down 17.31 percentage points from the previous month; Yunnan's operating rate was 18.13%, down 1.84 percentage points from the previous month; Sichuan's operating rate was 7.30%, up 6.81 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: On June 4, the Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory was 190,100 tons, up 2,700 tons from the previous week; the Yunnan factory warehouse inventory was 24,700 tons, up 600 tons from the previous week; the Sichuan factory warehouse inventory was 22,800 tons, up 300 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 589,000 tons, up 7,000 tons from the previous week; the warehouse - receipt inventory was 309,000 tons, down 4,400 tons from the previous day; the non - warehouse - receipt inventory was 280,000 tons, up 11,400 tons from the previous day [3]. 4. Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View In June, the polysilicon market is expected to remain in a situation of weak supply and demand. If there is no further production cut, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. However, due to the expected contraction of the supply side, if the production decreases and the supply - side pressure eases, the inventory is expected to be gradually reduced. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Relevant Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 4, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 36,500 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the average price of P - type cauliflower - like polysilicon was 30,000 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 34,000 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: On June 4, the price of PS2506 was 35,055 yuan/ton, up 895 yuan/ton from the previous day; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 2,935 yuan/ton, up 995 yuan/ton from the previous day; the PS2507 - PS2508 spread was 850 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: Weekly, the silicon wafer output was 134,000 CM, up 1,000 CM from the previous week; the polysilicon output was 21,600 tons, up 100 tons from the previous week. Monthly, in May, the polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, up 700 tons from the previous month; in April, the polysilicon import volume was 2,900 tons, down 200 tons from the previous month; the export volume was 2,000 tons, down 200 tons from the previous month [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: On June 4, the polysilicon inventory was 270,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous day; the silicon wafer inventory was 185,700 CM, down 3,800 CM from the previous day; the polysilicon warehouse receipts were 1,920 lots, up 350 lots from the previous day [4].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 5 日） 二、日度数据监测 | | 分项 | | 2025/6/3 | 2025/6/4 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 7075 | 7175 | 100 | | | | 近月 | 7075 | 7175 | 100 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 8150 | 8100 | -50 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 8200 | 8150 | -50 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 8000 | 7950 | -50 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 8350 | 8300 | -50 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8150 | 8100 | -50 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 8550 | 8500 | -50 | | | | 通氧553#硅(华东) | 8200 | 8150 | -50 ...

工业硅： 市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-05 受商品情绪影响，工业硅多晶硅盘面反弹 2025-06-04，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2507开于7150元/吨，最后收于7280元/吨，较前一日结算变化（205） 元/吨，变化（2.90）%。截止收盘，2507主力合约持仓180328手，2025-06-05仓单总数为61803手，较前一日变化 -887手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（-50）元/吨；421#硅在8500-9200 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（-50）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（-50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、天津、 四川、上海地区部分硅价小幅走弱。西北、新疆硅价暂稳。97硅今日价格同样暂稳，现货成交情况有所好转。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，华北单体企业正式进入检修，本次 检修所有装置全部停车，预计检修时长15天，影响DMC产量4000吨左右。 策略 当天工业硅期货盘面价格触底反弹，主要收到整体商品情绪好转，前期下跌较 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The silicon market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Both the futures and spot prices are declining in tandem. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and the bottom of silicon prices is difficult to determine. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to gradually take profit on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. For polysilicon, it is advisable to short on rebounds due to the weak fundamentals and the difficulty of an upward trend in the short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) decreased by 0.61% to 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,850 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price increased by 2.97% to 7,280 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the wet season is approaching, there is a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to resume production. The overall start - up rate decreased [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction state, and the resumption of production might be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but demand was weak. The silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed, and the downstream had insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually take profit on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type polysilicon materials remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price increased by 2.02% to 35,055 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction state, and some plants might have new production capacity put into operation. The output was expected to be within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, and weak market transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The strategy is to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor changes in the supply side [1]. Other Information - A monomer enterprise in North China started a 15 - day maintenance, which was expected to affect the DMC output by about 4,000 tons [1]. - Bangjie Co., Ltd. decided to continue the suspension of its battery cell production line to avoid expanding losses [1]. - In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, with the construction industry at 51.0% and the service industry at 50.2%. Some industries were in a high - prosperity range, while others were below the critical point [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a continuous decline, with cost support weakening, supply increasing, demand remaining weak, high social inventory, and expected short - term price decline. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds. - The polysilicon market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices falling in both the futures and spot markets. The downstream purchasing willingness is low, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - The power cost in the southwest production area is gradually decreasing as it enters the flat - water period, and the overall in - production cost of the industry will decline after the shutdown of high - cost enterprises in the north. Cost support for silicon prices is insufficient. - In May, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 2,417 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 416 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 2,188 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 103 yuan/ton. [2][36] 3.1.2 Supply - Last week, the number of open furnaces increased significantly, mainly from restarted enterprises in Xinjiang. As of now, the restart in Xinjiang has temporarily ended, and there are no expected new restarts in the short term. In Sichuan, enterprises are gradually increasing furnace openings with the decline of electricity prices in the wet season. Yunnan still has restart plans after maintenance, expected to restart around mid - to - late June. - In the week of May 29, the silicon enterprise's furnace - opening rate increased slightly, with a net increase of 20 furnaces. [2][37] 3.1.3 Demand - Downstream demand is weak, market transactions are low, and most transactions are at low prices. Polysilicon plants maintain a large - scale production reduction, the organic silicon industry reduces production, and the demand for silicon - aluminum alloy has weakened, with rigid procurement of industrial silicon. [2] 3.1.4 Inventory - Social inventory remains at a high level, and there is significant short - term inventory reduction pressure. As of May 29, the industrial silicon social inventory (warehouse inventory + delivery warehouse) was 58.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 million tons; the factory inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan totaled 23.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 million tons. [2][119] 3.1.5 Market Outlook - With strong restart expectations in the southwest production area and an increase in furnace openings of some silicon enterprises in the north, the supply shows an obvious increasing trend, while the demand maintains rigid procurement. Futures and spot prices are falling in tandem, and it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the short term. The futures price is expected to range from 7,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. [2] 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - In May, the polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,900 tons. As of May 29, the polysilicon inventory was 270,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. In June, the start - up of polysilicon enterprises will increase and decrease simultaneously, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly. [67] 3.2.2 Demand - Demand is weak. Domestically, orders have shrunk significantly, while overseas orders are relatively stable. Long - term component orders have decreased significantly, and the price of photovoltaic components has continued to decline. The demand for battery chips from the component side has decreased, and it is expected that the production scheduling of battery chips will be tight in June. Silicon wafer prices have declined across all sizes, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction. [2] 3.2.3 Market Outlook - The supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and the futures and spot prices are falling in tandem. The downstream purchasing willingness remains low, and there is no expectation of bottom - fishing for inventory. Although the number of warehouse receipts has not increased significantly, the weak fundamentals have not led to the trading of squeeze - out risks in the futures price. In the short term, warehouse receipts have alleviated the price factor, and the strategy is to short on rallies. [2] 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Production - In May, the operating rate of China's DMC was 62.37%, a month - on - month increase of 3.79 percentage points; the DMC output was 184,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. The industry mainly maintains production with reduced loads, and the overall operating rate has slightly increased. [87] 3.3.2 Price - As of May 30, the average price of DMC was 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month; the average price of 107 rubber was 12,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the average price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As the price of organic silicon has fallen to a low level, downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and market confidence has been somewhat restored. [94] 3.4 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Production - In the week of May 29, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.6%, unchanged from the previous week; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 percentage points. [104] 3.4.2 Price - As of May 30, the average price of ADC12 was 20,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%; the average price of A356 was 20,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. [107]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 7280 | 210 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 200193 | -8304 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -20060 | 4148 广期所仓单(日,手) | 62690 | -563 | | | 7-8月合约价差 | -15 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 8150 | -50 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 8850 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 870 | -260 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 11740 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 硅石平均价(日,元/吨) | 410 | 0 石油焦平均价(日,元/吨) | 1760 | 0 | | | 精煤平均价(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 木片平均价(日,元/吨) | 540 | 0 | | | 石墨电极(400mm)出场价(日,元/吨) | 1225 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing slight price fluctuations, with a recent overall decline in prices despite some recovery in specific contracts. The market sentiment remains cautious due to weak downstream demand and production expectations in certain regions [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price fluctuated from 7215 CNY/ton to 7280 CNY/ton, with an increase of 0.90%. The national average price decreased by 214 CNY/ton to 8747 CNY/ton. Specific grades saw price changes: 553 grade at 8452 CNY/ton (down 200 CNY), 441 grade at 9031 CNY/ton (down 154 CNY), and 421 grade at 9356 CNY/ton (down 261 CNY) [1]. - The FOB price remained stable, indicating no significant changes in export pricing [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, some manufacturers in southern regions have resumed production, while northern large manufacturers are steadily advancing their production plans, leading to an overall increasing production trend [1]. - Demand from downstream sectors is mixed, with some single-unit factories increasing their operating rates and production, while aluminum alloy manufacturers are purchasing industrial silicon as needed, resulting in a slight increase in total demand for industrial silicon [1]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is currently pessimistic due to weak downstream demand and anticipated production in the southwestern region. However, prices are significantly below production costs, leading the market to await a potential price stabilization point [2].