5 月 28 日山东德州报价 2.9 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.2 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期随着端午临近，鸡蛋性价比尚可，终端消费预计增加，渠道及 下游采购需求或增加，叠加淘汰有所加速，缓解供应压力，预计对蛋价形成 支撑，不过 5 月新开产量较大，供应压力仍较大，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存 储，节后进入梅雨季节，渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体 端午节日有利好，但高供应叠加天气，蛋价走势承压。中期来看，25 年 2- 4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前 期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远 期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长期来看，经过上半年养殖利润 不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季度新开产或环比减少，关注三 季度换羽淘汰及鸡病情况。短期端午节提振，蛋价存支撑，不过供应较为充 足叠加需求转弱，蛋价走势承压，三季度供需双增，区间操作为主，四季度 供应压力或有所缓解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月 后限仓，谨慎追空，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 饲料养殖 ...

油脂：市场紧张情绪缓和 油脂小幅回升 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 3、据外媒报道，咨询公司 Datagro 预估巴西 2024/25 年度大豆产量将达到 1.720 亿吨， 此前预测为 1.712 亿吨。预估巴西 2024/25 年度玉米产量为 1.327 亿吨，此前预测为 1.317 亿吨。 4、加拿大油籽加工商协会（COPA）发布的油籽压榨数据显示，2025 年 04 月，加拿大 油菜籽压榨量为 919345.0 吨，环比降 10.27%；菜籽油产量为 390276.0 吨，环比降 10.5%； 数据来源：Wind、金石期货研究所 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、上周我国菜油、棕榈油商业库存下降，豆油增加，三大油脂库存整体下降。5 月 23 日，三大油脂商业库存 185 万吨，周环比下降 1 万吨，月环比上升 8 万吨，同比上升 10 万 吨。其中豆油库存 70 万吨，周环比上升 6 万吨，月环比上升 10 万吨，同比下降 22 万吨； 菜籽油 79 万吨，周环比下降 2 万吨，月环比上升 2 万吨，同比上升 35 万吨；棕榈 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Dalian Commodity Exchange's oilseed futures prices are weakening due to dual negative pressures, suggesting that Malaysian palm oil may further decline [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the current market conditions affecting oilseed futures, particularly the impact of external factors leading to price drops [1] - It suggests that the market may experience additional downward pressure, indicating a potential for further declines in palm oil prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil and fat sector continued to fluctuate. The month - on - month increase in palm oil production in the producing areas narrowed, showing a moderate growth trend. The export demand increased month - on - month, and it was in a stage of both supply and demand growth. It was expected that the inventory in May would increase. The domestic palm oil inventory stopped falling and increased, and the tight pattern was alleviated. Market news said that the US biodiesel exemption might reduce the consumption of oils and fats, which had an overall negative impact. [3][6] - Macroscopically, Trump agreed to resume the window period of trade negotiations with the EU, the risk - aversion sentiment might ease, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the oil price continued to fluctuate. Fundamentally, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased moderately, the export demand increased slightly month - on - month, and it was expected that the inventory in May would continue to rise. At the same time, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy still existed. The fluctuation range of the market decreased, and the subsequent trend should be monitored. In general, palm oil might fluctuate in the short term. [3][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main continuous contract rose 0.3 to 49.22 cents per pound, with a gain of 0.61%. The BMD Malaysian palm oil main continuous contract rose 13 to 3825 ringgit per ton, with a gain of 0.34%. The DCE palm oil contract rose 22 to 8006 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.28%. The DCE soybean oil contract rose 20 to 7774 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.26%. The CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 114 to 9391 yuan per ton, with a gain of 1.23%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 50 to 8600 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.58%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 20 to 8030 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.25%. The spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 160 to 9610 yuan per ton, with a gain of 1.69%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil was - 232 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan from the previous period. The futures spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1617 yuan per ton, up 94 yuan from the previous period. [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: From May 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.72%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.38%, and the production increased by 3.72%. UOB estimated that the production from May 1 - 20 would decrease by 1% to increase by 3%. MPOA data showed that the production increased by 3.51%. [7] - Export: From May 1 - 20, 2025, according to ITS data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products was 741,560 tons, a 5.3% increase. According to SGS data, the export volume was expected to be 651,381 tons, a 13.73% increase. According to Amspec, the export volume was 720,422 tons, a 1.55% increase. Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June to the 9.5% export tariff range. [7][8] - Import: In April 2025, China's palm oil import volume was 160,000 tons, a 6.4% year - on - year increase; from January to April, it was 540,000 tons, a 22.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to April, China's soybean oil import volume was 20,000 tons, a 69.5% year - on - year decrease. In April, China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil import volume was 180,000 tons, an 18.4% year - on - year increase; from January to April, it was 910,000 tons, a 35.6% year - on - year increase. [8] - Policy impact: The US government planned to grant 163 small refineries exemptions, which would reduce the actual mandatory blending volume of US biodiesel. It was expected that the US biodiesel production would decrease by nearly 4.6 million tons, and the consumption of about 5 million tons of oil raw materials would be reduced. If the exemption period lasted for 3 years, the annual consumption of biodiesel made from oils and fats in the US would decrease by nearly 1.6 million tons in the future. [9] - Inventory: As of the week of May 16, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 1.8085 million tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from the previous week and 160,300 tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 656,300 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 204,500 tons from the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 359,700 tons, an increase of 22,400 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 39,100 tons from the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 792,500 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 403,900 tons from the same period last year. [9] - Transaction volume: As of the week of May 23, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 36,420 tons, compared with 11,140 tons in the previous week; the weekly trading volume of palm oil was 504 tons, compared with 531 tons in the previous week. [9] Industry News - MPOC stated that the price of crude palm oil in May was expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit and then gradually recover. It was expected that the global vegetable oil demand from June to September would be beneficial to palm oil, limiting the further decline of prices. India's reduction of palm oil import tariffs was expected to increase the import volume and might reduce the import demand for soybean oil. As of May 16, the price gap between palm oil and soybean oil had narrowed to $51. Due to the high - base effect, the production from May to September was expected to only increase moderately. The sluggish export performance in March and April led to an increase in inventory. The export of Malaysian palm oil to Sub - Saharan Africa increased by 24% in the first four months of 2025, and the export to ASEAN increased by 8%, but the export to other regions decreased. The production of US biodiesel decreased, and the consumption of major biodiesel raw materials also decreased sharply. [11][12] - The chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) Eddy Martono said that increasing the special export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) from 7.5% to 10% would weaken the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil products in the global market. The Indonesian Ministry of Finance decided to increase the special export tax on palm oil from 7.5% to 10% from May 17, 2025. [12] Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the spot - futures spreads of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, export volume, and inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventories of domestic three major oils. [13][14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Protein Meal - South American soybeans' impact on the market is gradually weakening. Brazilian soybeans mainly affect the market through the trend of Brazilian basis. In June, the high - temperature weather in the US continues, with excessive rainfall in the east and significantly lower - than - normal rainfall in the western part of the Midwest, which may damage soybean growth. CBOT soybeans will fluctuate between 950 - 1150 before variables change and may rise if variables occur. In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [1][124]. Oils - In June, there is a high possibility that US soybean oil will oscillate and decline from a high level due to the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in May, and there is a high risk of a market decline in June. Domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation in June, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [2][125][126]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Market Review - In May, CBOT soybeans oscillated and closed higher. At the beginning of May, they showed a low - level oscillation trend. Later, positive factors such as the improvement of US soybean export prospects, the tightening of new - year supply, and the increase in US biodiesel blending ratio pushed up the price. Domestic soybean meal was significantly weaker than the external market. International oils showed differentiated trends, with US soybean oil reaching a high and then falling, and Malaysian palm oil oscillating downwards. Domestic oils followed international oils but did not break out of the previous oscillation range [4][5]. Part Two: Protein Meal - **Global Soybean Production Forecast**: USDA's May report shows that the global soybean production is expected to increase for the fourth consecutive year in the 25/26 season, with heavy supply pressure from South America. The supply pressure is most significant during the concentrated listing period of South American soybeans from May to June [9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: Argentina was affected by rainfall during the harvest period, which may reduce production. Brazilian soybean production is a foregone conclusion, and its impact on the market is mainly reflected in the Brazilian basis. The decline of Brazilian basis may slow down in June and may stop falling and stabilize [10][15][19]. - **US Soybean Situation**: In the 25/26 season, US soybean supply is tight, with low tolerance for yield reduction. The planting progress in 2025 is ahead of schedule, but the weather may be characterized by "flood in the east and drought in the west", which may damage soybean growth. US soybean exports and crushing demand in the 25/26 season have great uncertainties. Before variables change, CBOT soybeans will oscillate between 950 - 1150 and may rise if variables occur [26][29][40]. - **Domestic Protein Meal Situation**: In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [64]. Part Three: Oils - **US Soybean Oil**: USDA estimates that the production and demand of US soybean oil will increase in the 25/26 season, but the market sentiment has changed from optimism to pessimism due to the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy. In June, US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level [66][69][74]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Since March, Malaysian palm oil production has been increasing. In May, production may exceed demand, leading to inventory accumulation. In June, production may slightly decline, and exports may increase. The market has a high risk of decline and needs export demand and biodiesel policies to boost [75][79][84]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: USDA estimates that the global rapeseed production will increase by 5% in the 25/26 season, and the supply will be better than that in the 24/25 season. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by nearly 4%, but the inventory is still at a low level, with limited tolerance for yield reduction [90][93]. - **Domestic Oils**: In June, domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [123]. Part Four: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Protein Meal**: South American soybeans' impact on the market is weakening. In June, US weather may affect soybean growth, and there are uncertainties in US soybean exports and crushing demand. CBOT soybeans will oscillate in a range and may rise if variables occur. Domestic soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster, and spot and basis prices may decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow US soybeans [124]. - **Oils**: US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level in June. Malaysian palm oil has a high risk of decline. Domestic oils have an oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Lianpalmoil may oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to widen [125][126]. - **Operations**: For soybean meal, adopt low - level buying or selling put options. For palm oil, short at the upper limit of the range or sell call options. In arbitrage, go long on the soybean - palm oil spread and short on the oil - meal ratio [127][128][129].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices are falling, putting pressure on the prices of vegetable oils [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 7,994 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan or 1.36% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 0.69%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan or 0.37% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 8,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.35%, with a spot basis of P09 + 566 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.50%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 240 yuan, an increase of 14 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 185 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [1] Recent Market Information Summary - Global soybean: The International Grains Council (IGC) maintained the 2025/26 global soybean production at 428 million tons, increased the trade volume by 2 million tons to 183 million tons, increased the consumption by 2 million tons to 429 million tons, and decreased the ending stocks by 2 million tons to 81 million tons [2] - Malaysian palm oil: In May, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased smoothly. From May 1 - 20, the production in South Malaysia increased by 3.7% month - on - month, with an average increase of 8.6% in the same period of the past 5 years. It is expected that the production in May will increase by about 5% month - on - month. In terms of exports, from May 1 - 20, the export volume increased by 5.25% month - on - month, with an average increase of 9.0% in the same period of the past 5 years. Due to Indonesia's increase in export fees, it is expected that the palm oil exports in Malaysia in May will increase by about 10% month - on - month [2] - International prices: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) increased by 14 dollars/ton to 599 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) increased by 14 dollars/ton to 589 dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) decreased by 6 dollars/ton to 1,097 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) decreased by 7 dollars/ton to 1,040 dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) remained unchanged at 1,050 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) remained unchanged at 1,030 dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (June shipment) increased by 10 dollars/ton to 467 dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (June shipment) increased by 10 dollars/ton to 462 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (June shipment) increased by 9 dollars/ton to 444 dollars/ton. The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (June shipment) remained unchanged at 212 cents/bushel; the import soybean premium for the US West Coast (June shipment) remained unchanged at 185 cents/bushel; the import soybean premium for Brazilian ports (June shipment) increased by 18 cents/bushel to 148 cents/bushel [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of technological innovation in enhancing the quality and safety of peanut oil, addressing industry challenges, and promoting the high-quality development of China's peanut industry [1][2][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The "Peanut Oil and Protein High-Value Utilization Technology and Industrialization Demonstration" project was officially launched on May 9, focusing on improving the comprehensive utilization of peanut oil and protein through green and efficient processing technologies [1][2]. - The project aims to address key issues in the peanut industry, such as low food utilization rates of high-quality oil and protein resources, low proportions of high-value products, and outdated processing technologies [2][4]. Group 2: Economic and Social Benefits - The implementation of the project is expected to significantly enhance production efficiency and product added value for enterprises, while also increasing the income of peanut farmers, contributing to rural revitalization [5]. - The project will promote a qualitative leap in the overall processing level of China's peanut industry, enhancing the industry's core competitiveness [5]. Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - The project exemplifies deep integration of industry, academia, and research, with collaboration between Hu Jihua Global Peanut Industry Research Institute and various academic teams, including Professor Liu Yuanfa's team [4][11]. - The research institute has previously collaborated with renowned academicians to achieve significant results in peanut breeding and food safety, ensuring the quality of peanut raw materials [7][8]. Group 4: Future Directions - The research institute plans to continue making breakthroughs in peanut breeding, planting, processing, and market application, further enhancing the value potential of peanuts and the added value of the peanut industry [8][10]. - The focus on technological innovation and industry integration aims to elevate the peanut oil industry to a higher quality, efficiency, and sustainability level [11][12].

2025 年 5 月 15 日 商 品 研 究 据外媒报道，联昌国际银行（CIMB）分析师表示，马棕油库存可能在 5 月环比增长 15%，达到 215 万 吨，这将对毛棕榈油价格施加压力。预计 5 月份毛棕榈油价格将在每吨 3700 林吉特到 4000 林吉特之间波 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方存在支撑 豆油：美国生柴炒作密集，短期易涨难跌 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,184 | 涨跌幅 2.89% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,176 | 涨跌幅 -0.10% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,914 | 1.57% | 7,898 | -0.20% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,438 | 0.68% | 9,432 | -0.06% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,925 | 0.82% | 3,957 | 0.87% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the success of Ruifu Oil Co., a 93-year-old traditional brand, emphasizing its commitment to quality and innovation in sesame oil production, showcasing how a small-scale operation can evolve into a leading industry player through dedication and modernization [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Ruifu Oil Co. was established in 1932 and has transformed from a small sesame oil workshop into a leading enterprise with annual sales exceeding 600 million yuan, processing over 60,000 tons of sesame and producing 10,000 tons each of sesame oil and sesame paste annually [1]. - The company is recognized as one of the first "Chinese Time-honored Brands" and a national high-tech enterprise, reflecting its historical significance and technological advancement in the industry [1]. Group 2: Production and Quality Control - The company prioritizes high-quality sesame, sourcing over 3,000 tons from major domestic production areas and Africa, ensuring that the supply lasts only a month due to high demand [2]. - Traditional production methods are maintained, such as stone grinding and water extraction, which preserve the nutritional and aromatic qualities of sesame oil, demonstrating a commitment to craftsmanship [3]. - Ruifu has invested over 10 million yuan in a testing center to ensure product quality at every production stage, allowing for traceability of each bottle [3]. Group 3: Innovation and Market Adaptation - The company has adapted to modern consumer preferences by launching new products like black sesame balls, sesame yogurt, and dipping sauces, appealing to younger demographics [4]. - Ruifu has participated in the formulation of 17 national and industry standards related to sesame and sesame oil, holding 15 patents and various certifications, which enhances its credibility and market position [4]. - The company is expanding its global footprint by exporting high-end sesame products to over 30 countries, including the USA, Japan, and Germany, thus promoting Chinese sesame oil internationally [4].

Group 1 - Xiamen Bank disclosed its 2024 annual report, revealing the execution status of performance clawbacks for the first time, with a total deferred salary balance of approximately 0.62 million yuan [2] - The bank has determined performance clawbacks for 188 individuals, totaling 3.7012 million yuan, while deferring the payment of 6.022 million yuan in risk deferred compensation for 2024 due to unresolved risk events [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced that Dongfang Group's financial information from 2020 to 2023 was severely misleading, involving a cumulative inflated revenue of 16.129 billion yuan and inflated operating costs of 16.074 billion yuan over four years [2] Group 2 - Xiamen Bank initiated legal proceedings to recover loans from Xiamen Yinxiang Oil Co., Ltd. (Yinxiang Oil), which has defaulted due to overdue payments and significant economic disputes [3] - The bank's lawsuit includes five requests, such as repayment of principal and interest, exercising priority rights over collateral, and holding Xiamen Yinxiang Group and Dongfang Group jointly liable for repayment [3] - Yinxiang Oil was previously a key client for Xiamen Bank's manufacturing loans, ranking first among the bank's top ten manufacturing loan clients at the end of 2017, 2019, and mid-2020 [3]