格隆汇1月19日｜中信建投研报指出，本周贵州茅台披露2026年市场化运营方案，对产品体系、运营模 式、渠道布局和价格机制进行全方位的改革。鸣鸣很忙通过港股聆讯，新店型推动细分领域复苏。伊利 参与优然配售后持股比例由33.93%增加至36.07%，彰显行业底部信心。大众品方面，把握餐饮链复苏 预期（关注新店型、商超定制）、健康化功能化高景气增长、成本周期优化等三大主线。展望Q1，关 注三条主线：一是跨年行情中零食、乳业等大众品领涨，白酒磨底蓄力待春节后修复；二是年报预告期 临近，大众品细分龙头有望利润超预期；三是 1 月下旬春节备货提振数据，叠加估值低位与情绪修复， 放大Q1业绩超预期弹性。 ...

Market News - The policy for tax refunds on housing transactions for residents will be extended until the end of 2027, allowing taxpayers to receive refunds on individual income tax paid when selling their homes and purchasing new ones within one year [2] - The National Medical Insurance Administration has initiated a pilot program for "Personal Medical Insurance Cloud" from February to December this year, aiming to create a smart medical insurance management model covering the entire population [2] - Starting in 2026, companies providing paid services such as dining and accommodation to employees may be subject to VAT, as the new VAT law removes the exemption for such services [2] Sector Matters - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined four major actions for the development of industrial internet platforms, aiming for over 450 influential platforms and more than 120 million connected industrial devices by 2028 [7] - Jiangsu Province has released an "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan, targeting an AI industry scale exceeding one trillion yuan by 2027, with a focus on developing intelligent robots and promoting autonomous driving applications [8] - The 2026 annual work meeting of the inter-ministerial joint conference on energy-saving and new energy vehicles emphasized enhancing the self-control capability of the supply chain and accelerating breakthroughs in solid-state batteries and advanced autonomous driving technologies [9] Individual Stock Events - Guizhou Moutai plans to adjust the factory prices of several products, including reducing the factory price of "Moutai Boutique Wine" from 2969 yuan to 1859 yuan [11] - Honor announced a collaboration with Pop Mart for the launch of the Honor Digital 500 series, positioning it as the industry's first trendy toy phone [11] - XPeng Motors' flying car division has reportedly submitted a confidential IPO application in Hong Kong, with plans to complete it within this year [11] - Baidu is considering upgrading its secondary listing in Hong Kong to a "dual primary listing" to attract more mainland capital [11] Lock-up Stock Expiration - A total of 37 companies will have lock-up stocks released this week, amounting to 3.445 billion shares with a total market value of 46.421 billion yuan based on the closing price on January 16 [15] - The peak of lock-up expirations is on January 19, with 20 companies releasing stocks worth a total of 23.323 billion yuan, accounting for 50.25% of the week's total [15] New Stock Calendar - Three new stocks are set to be issued this week, with a total of approximately 300 million shares expected to raise 5.38 billion yuan [18] Institutional Outlook - Caixin Securities suggests that a "slow bull" and "long bull" market is the foundation for high-quality growth, supported by strong pricing fundamentals for Chinese assets [21] - Galaxy Securities notes that the foundation for a long bull market in A-shares is further solidified, with active investor sentiment and a rise in margin trading [22] - Open Source Securities advises investors to remain confident in the ongoing bull market despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of rational market behavior [23]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend, with a focus on high growth or improved performance during the concentrated disclosure period of annual performance forecasts in late January [1][17] - The current A-share market is driven by both technology and cyclical sectors, suggesting investors should maintain confidence and allocate resources wisely [17] - The market has entered the second phase of spring volatility, with a shift towards validating annual performance, particularly in growth sectors with high prosperity and earnings elasticity [17] Group 2 - The State Council is taking measures to boost consumption and ensure the payment of wages to migrant workers, which may positively impact economic activity [6] - The People's Bank of China has adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to no less than 30%, which could influence the real estate market [6] - The Ministry of Finance has extended tax incentives for public rental housing construction and operation until December 31, 2027, which may support the housing sector [7]

2026年1月19日 星期一 海南自贸港封关首月离岛免税销售金额达48.6亿元 1月18日，海南自由贸易港封关运作满月。据海口海关统计，自2025年12月18日至2026年1月17日，海口海关共监管离岛免税购物金额48.6亿元，同比增长 46.8%；购物人数74.5万人次，同比增长30.2%；购物件数349.4万件，同比增长14.6%。消费者购物热情高涨，充分展现出离岛免税市场的澎湃活力。（新 华社） 2 中国与中亚国家货物贸易额首破千亿美元 记者1月18日从商务部获悉，中国与中亚国家货物贸易规模再创新高，进出口总值历史上首次突破1000亿美元大关，连续5年保持正增长。中国首次跃居中亚 各国第一大贸易伙伴，中亚占中国外贸的比重进一步上升。商务部欧亚司负责人介绍，2025年，在元首外交战略引领下，中国与中亚国家经贸合作取得长足 发展。据中国海关统计，全年货物贸易进出口达到1063亿美元，同比增长12%，增速较上年提高6个百分点。（新华社） 1 封关"满月" 海南自贸港新增备案外贸企业超5000家 2026年1月18日，海南自由贸易港封关运作迎来"满月"。记者当天从海关总署获悉，受自贸港封关利好和开放磁吸效应影响 ...

——上市公司质量和投资价值进一步提高。全省上市公司累计实施并购重组136家次、交易金额813亿 元，累计实施股份回购增持283家次、总金额298亿元，累计实施现金分红超2300亿元。全省科创板、创 业板和北交所上市公司数量占比提升至44%。 对于"十五五"时期，四川证监局表示，将继续按照证监会党委和省委、省政府部署，充分发挥资本市场 功能作用，助力地方经济社会高质量发展。主要从四方面发力：聚焦科技创新，更好助力四川新质生产 力发展；凝聚发展合力，推动上市公司做优做强；强化功能发挥，服务区域发展战略；提高监管精准有 效性，守牢风险底线。 拓面增质 辖区资本市场亮点多 过去五年，四川资本市场发展环境和生态体系持续优化，各类市场主体搭乘政策东风，加速发展。 资本市场亮蜀光 资本市场亮 光 星奔川骛，岁聿云暮。回看"十四五"时期，四川资本市场交出了一份"高分答卷"： ——直接融资效能进一步提升。全省新增46家A股上市公司、首发募集资金超360亿元，省内各类市场 主体通过资本市场实现直接融资超2.1万亿元，支持企业发行科创债、绿色债、乡村振兴债等创新品种 债券168只，募集资金超1000亿元。 上市公司总量稳增、赛道更 ...

Group 1 - The company has never authorized or commissioned any entity to release the mentioned information [1] - Currently, the company's self-operated stores in various provinces are signing sales contracts for 2026 with existing corporate group purchasing clients [1] - The company is actively cooperating with relevant authorities to investigate and address fraudulent solicitation activities, ensuring the maintenance of market order and consumer rights [1]

Group 1 - The "Guanghuo Hang Tianxia" spring campaign launched in Guangdong, with over 1,300 local appliance companies participating, aiming to boost sales through online and offline promotions [5] - The campaign will feature 12 synchronized promotional events throughout the first quarter, targeting over 6,000 enterprises to enhance online sales of quality products [5] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced eight major policy measures to support economic transformation, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and a special relending quota of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises [6] - The measures also include increasing relending quotas for technological innovation to 1.2 trillion yuan and lowering the minimum down payment for commercial housing to 30% [6] Group 3 - In 2025, the national real estate market continued to adjust, with new residential sales area declining by 4.9% year-on-year to approximately 390 million square meters, and sales value dropping by 10% to around 5.4 trillion yuan [7] - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand residential properties reached 839 million square meters, indicating stable demand from residents [7] Group 4 - Zeekr Automotive clarified its cross-year vehicle purchase tax subsidy policy, stating that it has covered the tax subsidy for 8,125 users who placed orders in 2025 and received their vehicles in January 2026 [9] - The confusion arose from the overlap of two policies, leading to misinterpretations regarding payment and vehicle delivery [10] Group 5 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission disclosed the 2024 salary information for over 80 central enterprise leaders, showing a stable salary range without extreme high salaries [11] - The top earners are primarily from telecommunications and energy sectors, with China Mobile's former chairman leading at a pre-tax salary of 1.2582 million yuan [11] Group 6 - The State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated an antitrust investigation into Trip.com Group for suspected monopolistic behavior [12] - Trip.com has committed to cooperating with the investigation and ensuring normal business operations [12] Group 7 - IKEA announced the closure of its Guangzhou Panyu store, raising questions about the future of its 40,000 square meters of self-owned property [13] - IKEA is currently evaluating arrangements for the asset and will comply with relevant laws and regulations [13] Group 8 - CHALI Tea clarified rumors regarding a 200 million yuan salary debt, admitting to cash flow pressures due to strategic missteps in bottled tea, while assuring that its core bagged tea business remains operational [16] - The company is addressing salary issues for departing employees in batches, although some employees have expressed ongoing concerns about unpaid wages [16] Group 9 - The white wine market is experiencing a price decline, influenced by the price adjustments of flagship products like Moutai, leading to a broader price reduction across various brands [15] - The industry is facing inventory pressures, prompting some distributors to lower prices to stimulate sales, indicating a shift towards a "price for volume" strategy [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in the purchasing conditions for Moutai's Flying Moutai liquor, highlighting a shift in sales strategy and the opening of new purchasing opportunities for private enterprises [1][3]. Group 1: Purchasing Conditions - Moutai's self-operated stores have relaxed the purchasing requirements for private enterprises, allowing those with an annual tax amount of over 1 million yuan to purchase the 53-degree 500ml Flying Moutai at a price of 1499 yuan [1]. - Different regions have varying purchasing conditions, but all self-operated stores consulted did not mention restrictions on new enterprise customers when asked about the application process [1]. - In Ningxia, the purchasing conditions have been relaxed compared to previous years, and the purchase of Flying Moutai does not require the purchase of other products [3]. Group 2: Sales Strategy - Moutai has announced a new market operation plan for 2026, which includes adjustments in product systems, operational models, channel layouts, and pricing mechanisms [3]. - The company is transitioning from a traditional sales model of "self-sale + distribution" to a multi-dimensional marketing system that includes "self-sale + distribution + agency + consignment" to better meet consumer demand [3]. - The new strategy aims to establish a five-channel layout that includes wholesale, offline retail, online retail, catering, and private domain, integrating online and offline approaches to create a consumer-centric ecosystem [3].

Macro Economic Insights - The government is intensifying efforts to clear overdue corporate payments and wages, focusing on key regions and implementing special bonds to support this initiative [6][7] - The central bank has introduced a series of monetary policies, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in relending and rediscount rates, and plans to maintain a loose monetary stance throughout 2026 [7][17] - The real estate policy includes extending tax incentives for residential property transactions and lowering the minimum down payment for commercial property loans to 30% [7] Industry Insights Computer Industry - Alibaba is fully integrating its Qianwen App into its ecosystem, enhancing its capabilities as an AI shopping assistant and potentially becoming a major entry point for AI services [50] - The launch of "Ant Health Assistant" and "Lingguang," a multimodal AI assistant, indicates Alibaba's strong positioning in the AI sector, with significant user engagement [51][52] - Investment opportunities in AI applications are highlighted, with recommendations for companies benefiting from this trend [53] Machinery Industry - The use of polyurethane TPU materials in humanoid robots is emphasized, showcasing their advantages in safety and shock absorption, which are critical for the mass production of robots [55][56] - The TPU market is expected to grow significantly due to its application in humanoid robots, with a projected market space exceeding 3 billion yuan as production scales up [58] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The regulatory environment for derivatives is becoming more transparent, which may benefit leading brokerage firms as restrictions on scale are expected to ease [6] - The financial sector is experiencing a "slow bull" phase, with positive performance in brokerage and insurance businesses [6] Chemical Industry - The polyester filament industry is entering a new round of production cuts, while the supply-demand dynamics for glyphosate are improving, leading to price increases [6] Automotive Industry - China's heavy truck sales are projected to reach 1.145 million units by 2025, indicating a robust market outlook [6] Food and Beverage Industry - Moutai is deepening market reforms, and the value of Bai Run shares is becoming more apparent, suggesting potential investment opportunities [6] Pharmaceutical Industry - The focus remains on innovative drug sectors, with continued recommendations for investment in this area [6] Trade and Export - China's exports have shown unexpected growth, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% in December, driven by high-tech products and diversified markets [41][42][45]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector is currently at a bottom phase, with leading brands expected to see an upward trend in sales during the upcoming Spring Festival, particularly for core products [2][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Spring Festival stocking season for consumer goods, with a focus on new consumption trends in the medium to long term [3][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.10% from January 12 to January 16, 2026, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.45%, and the CSI 300 Index, which dropped by 0.57% [1][19] - Specific declines included the liquor sector at -2.35%, processed foods at -2.13%, and dairy products at -2.09% [1][19] Weekly Updates - **Liquor Sector**: The liquor sector's performance was weaker than the overall food and beverage sector, with a notable decline of 2.35%. The report mentions the release of a market-oriented operational plan by Kweichow Moutai, which aims to stabilize retail prices and enhance sales channels [2][10] - **Consumer Goods**: The report indicates a positive outlook for snack foods, with significant gains in stocks such as "Good Idea" and "Kangbiter" [3][12] Investment Recommendations - **Liquor Sector**: Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu, with a focus on potential sales exceeding expectations during the Spring Festival [2][10][17] - **Consumer Goods**: Emphasis on the importance of stocking for the Spring Festival, with recommendations for companies like Wei Long and Wanchen Group, as well as monitoring new product launches and channel adjustments [3][12][18] Sector and Stock Performance - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that the processed food and baking sectors also faced declines, with specific stocks like Weizhi Xiang and Kemei Foods showing some resilience [15][19] - The report notes that the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage sector is currently at 21 times, ranking it 24th among primary industries [24]