1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai tin prices rose first and then fell. On December 25, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 332,750 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis [13]. - In November, the production of refined tin was 15,490 tons, returning to normal levels both month - on - month and year - on - year. The cumulative domestic tin ore production from January to September was 56,500 tons, showing a slight year - on - year increase. The resumption of production in Myanmar's mining sector has affected price ranges. In November, Indonesia's exports returned to normal, with an export volume of 7,458.64 tons, a 25.59% year - on - year increase and a 182% month - on - month increase [13]. - In November, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC maintained good growth, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that the demand in emerging sectors will remain resilient in December, while the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted. Recently, industry associations have called on market participants to remain rational and cautious [13]. - The mining end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of mining end disturbances [13]. - LME, SHFE, and social inventories all increased slightly on a weekly basis [13]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy remains resilient, and the semiconductor and automotive industries are generally on an upward trend. There is still high uncertainty overseas, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The futures price remains strong, but high prices are expected to suppress demand and stimulate supply. Industry associations have called on market participants to remain rational and cautious. It is recommended to hold long positions with a light position, and those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions. The reference support level has been raised to around 313,000 - 315,000 yuan/ton. Long positions can buy put options for protection. In the later period, focus on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, Indonesia's export speed, and the verification of consumption data [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly View and Strategy - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai tin prices rose first and then fell last week. On December 25, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 332,750 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis [13]. - **Supply**: In November, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal. The cumulative domestic tin ore production from January to September was 56,500 tons, showing a slight year - on - year increase. Myanmar's mining production resumption has affected price ranges. In November, Indonesia's refined tin exports were 7,458.64 tons, a 25.59% year - on - year increase and a 182% month - on - month increase [13]. - **Demand**: In November, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC maintained good growth, while traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that emerging sectors will maintain demand resilience in December, while some traditional sectors will adjust. Industry associations have called on market participants to remain rational [13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The mining end is tight, and processing fees are declining weakly. Profits will remain low [13]. - **Inventory**: LME, SHFE, and social inventories all increased slightly on a weekly basis [13]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions with a light position, and those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions. The reference support level is around 313,000 - 315,000 yuan/ton. Long positions can buy put options for protection. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data [13]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided other than the title. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market No specific content provided other than the title and related charts. 3.4 Inventory - As of December 24, 2025, SHFE inventory was 8,331 tons, with a slight weekly increase. As of December 23, 2025, LME total inventory was 4,895 tons, with a slight weekly increase. As of December 19, 2025, the refined tin social inventory was 10,181 tons, with a slight weekly increase [30][34]. 3.5 Cost and Profit As of December 18, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees continued to be weak [39]. 3.6 Supply - In November 2025, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. In September, domestic tin ore production was 6,263.28 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease [45]. - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [50]. 3.7 Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.519 million vehicles, a 2.4% year - on - year increase; the production of electronic computers was 29.028 million units, a 1.4% year - on - year decrease [57]. - In November 2025, China's PVC production was 2.07926 million tons, a 3.1% year - on - year increase; the production of mobile electronic communications was 142.35 million units, an 11.6% year - on - year decrease [62]. - In November 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 1.5026 million units, a 23.4% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a 5.6% year - on - year increase [67]. - In November 2025, China's washing machine production was 12.013 million units, a 5.5% year - on - year increase; the production of color televisions was 17.449 million units, a 5% year - on - year decrease [72]. - In November 2025, China's solar energy production was 73.49 million kilowatts, a 7.8% year - on - year increase; the production of integrated circuits was 43.9 million pieces, a 15.6% year - on - year increase [76]. 3.8 Import and Export In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [80]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table | Year/(10,000 tons) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China's Production | 18.1 | 15.9 | 18 | 19.8 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.45 | 18.67 | | Overseas Production | 17.7 | 19.5 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 19.3 | | Global Supply | 35.8 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 35.1 | 38 | 36.6 | 35.2 | 35.95 | 37.97 | | China's Demand | 14.9 | 14 | 16.4 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 18.75 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 19.87 | | Overseas Demand | 22.3 | 21.9 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 19.9 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 18.7 | 19.15 | | Global Demand | 37.2 | 35.9 | 35.2 | 38.9 | 38 | 36.95 | 37.2 | 38 | 39.02 | | Global Supply - Demand Balance | - 1.4 | - 0.5 | - 2.4 | - 3.8 | 0.05 | - 0.35 | - 2 | - 2.05 | - 1.05 | [83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices hit a new high, with the macro - environment remaining warm due to Fed liquidity support and global economic growth repair expectations in 2026. Fundamentals show low inventory and demand resilience, but high prices may suppress physical buying, and domestic inventories may increase. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Alumina continued to decline, converging with futures, and the spot premium continued to narrow. Aluminum prices may face inventory build - up pressure and their upward momentum will be weak, continuing to oscillate at high levels [1][2]. - Nickel prices were boosted by news, but the actual implementation is unknown. Stainless steel inventory decreased, and new energy costs and demand weakened. Attention should be paid to market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME was closed, and the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 2.51% to 97,680 yuan/ton. Japan plans a large - scale budget in 2026, and the RMB exchange rate hit a new high. Domestic refined copper inventory increased by 2.52 million tons. High prices made downstream procurement cautious. A long - term bullish view is maintained, but buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina oscillated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy oscillated strongly. The increase in ore shipments and imports put pressure on alumina prices. Aluminum may face inventory build - up pressure, and prices will oscillate at high levels [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.13%, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.35%. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesian nickel production may decline in 2026, and the government plans to revise the benchmark price formula. Nickel - related prices were mostly stable, and stainless steel inventory decreased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Domestic and foreign inventories showed different changes, and the import loss decreased by 30 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 130 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and the import profit increased by 130 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. Alumina inventory decreased, and aluminum inventory increased. The import loss increased by 40 yuan/ton [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 2,550 yuan/ton. Nickel inventory increased, and stainless steel inventory decreased slightly. The import profit decreased significantly [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.8%. Inventory changes were mixed, and the import loss increased by 190 yuan/ton [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 1.7%. Inventory increased, and the import loss increased by 5,920 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][12][17]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [18][22][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [51][52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate widely throughout 2026, with the overall center of gravity moving upward. It may face pressure in the first half of the year due to supply recovery and potential AI bubbles, and then rise in the second half as macro - easing policies are implemented and the market reaches a tight balance. The predicted core fluctuation range for the SHFE Shanghai tin main contract in 2026 is 275,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and the range for LME tin is 38,500 - 56,000 US dollars/ton [2]. - On the supply side, there are significant uncertainties in the three major supply areas of Myanmar, Indonesia, and Congo (Kinshasa). Supply may be stronger in the first half of 2026 compared to this year, but supply disruptions will persist in the second half due to factors such as the rainy season in Myanmar, the intensification of the war in Congo (Kinshasa), and quota restrictions in Indonesia [2]. - On the demand side, the consumer electronics industry is entering a recovery cycle. Although the AI sector has a relatively small weight, it has strong driving force. Other traditional tin - consuming sectors will maintain steady growth. The overall demand growth rate of tin is expected to remain above 3% in 2026 [2][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - **First stage (January - May 2025)**: Supply bottlenecks drove the market, and capital forced short - covering to push prices to a peak. The core contradiction was a sharp contraction in supply. Delays in Indonesia's RKAB export quota approval and the repeated failure of the复产 in Myanmar's Wa State mine led to a supply gap. Coupled with the Fed's expected interest - rate cut, capital launched a short - covering campaign, pushing the Shanghai tin main contract to a high [4]. - **Second stage (May - September 2025)**: Negative feedback emerged, and there was a deep correction as the macro - environment cooled. High tin prices suppressed downstream purchasing, leading to low spot trading and inventory stagnation. The approval of Indonesia's RKAB and the recovery of exports, along with fluctuating macro - sentiment, caused long - position capital to leave the market, and tin prices fell [4]. - **Third stage (October - December 2025)**: Raw material shortages resurfaced, and the implementation of macro - policies pushed prices to a new high. Despite the nominal复产 in Myanmar's Wa State, actual tin concentrate inflows were lower than expected. The Fed's interest - rate cut, combined with low inventory and weak supply in the industry and increased demand from semiconductors and AI, drove tin prices up to a historical high [7]. Chapter 3: Supply Side - Increasing Uncertainty - **Tin ore: Limited growth**: In 2025, global tin concentrate supply showed a pattern of "stock competition and limited growth." In 2026, the supply elasticity of global tin ore remains weak, and the core contradiction is shifting from policy disruptions to resource depletion. The growth rate of global tin ore production is expected to be in the range of 1.5% - 2% under a pessimistic scenario, and may reach 8% if the复产 exceeds expectations [8]. - **Myanmar: Multiple disturbances**: Myanmar's tin supply has been a major source of "expected differences." Since the mining rectification in 2024, the actual复产 has been slow and non - continuous due to policy, equipment, and cost factors. In 2026, resource depletion will limit supply, and the rainy season and logistics problems may cause supply shortages and price increases [12][13]. - **Indonesia: From elastic adjustment to institutional constraints**: In 2025, Indonesia's tin exports were restricted by anti - corruption investigations and stricter RKAB approvals. In 2026, although the approval process may normalize, supply elasticity will decline significantly. Exports are expected to recover but will be subject to RKAB approvals [18]. - **Congo (Kinshasa): Increment and geopolitical concerns**: The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is the only certain incremental source of global supply in 2026. However, the project faces risks of armed conflict and unstable logistics, so a higher risk premium should be considered [22]. - **Cost support analysis**: In 2026, the cost of global tin mining is expected to rise. The 90 - percentile cash cost line (C1) is expected to reach 26,000 - 27,000 US dollars/ton, and the 90 - percentile fully cost (AISC) is expected to exceed 29,000 US dollars/ton, providing strong support for tin prices [24][25]. Chapter 4: Demand Side - Cycle Resonance and AI Reconstruction - **Consumer electronics: From "passive inventory reduction" to "active inventory replenishment"**: The consumer electronics industry has ended the difficult inventory reduction phase. In 2026, it will enter the "active inventory replenishment" stage driven by the replacement cycle of PC equipment and the penetration of "edge - side AI" [27][30]. - **AI servers: Strong driving force, low weight** - In 2026, the AI server market is divided into "standard modular servers" and "rack - scale systems." The rack - scale system represented by NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 has a revolutionary impact on tin consumption [33][34]. - The estimated tin consumption of a single NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 cabinet is 5.15 kg, mainly from computing trays, cable assemblies, power systems, and backplane systems [36][38]. - The total tin consumption increment of the AI industry chain in 2026 is estimated to be about 1,600 tons, accounting for less than 0.5% of the global annual consumption. Although the physical impact is limited, it has a significant influence on market pricing [43][44]. - **Marginal changes: Photovoltaic's reduction concerns and the resilience of traditional sectors** - In 2026, the demand growth of the photovoltaic sector will level off as the increase in installed capacity is offset by the decline in tin consumption per GW. The sector will become a support for maintaining high - level consumption rather than a major driver of price increases [45][46]. - In traditional sectors, tin chemicals may face a decline, while tinplate and lead - acid batteries are expected to maintain stable growth, providing basic support for tin consumption [46]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Inventory - **Global supply - demand balance**: Under different scenarios in 2026, the supply of global tin ore and refined tin will increase, and consumption will also grow. However, there will still be a supply - demand gap, and the gap may widen [49]. - **Inventory: Excess inventory cleared, elasticity restored**: In 2025, tin market inventory returned to normal levels. In 2026, with the expected expansion of the supply - demand gap, the ability of inventory to regulate supply and demand will weaken, and prices will be more sensitive to marginal gaps [50].

Copper - The domestic copper futures rose by 2.51% to 97,680 CNY/ton, reaching a historical high [2][7] - Japan plans to introduce its largest initial budget in fiscal 2026, totaling approximately 122.3 trillion JPY, a 6.3% increase from fiscal 2025, significantly exceeding current inflation levels [2][7] - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the 7.0 mark, while the onshore RMB surpassed 7.01, both reaching new highs since September 2024 [2][7] - Domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons [2][7] - Demand for copper remains cautious as downstream enterprises focus on essential purchases, with expectations of a recovery in global economic growth next year [2][7] - Low inventory and resilient demand provide support, but high prices may suppress some physical buying, and the market may enter a phase of inventory accumulation as the year-end approaches [2][7] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.13% to 15,660 USD/ton, while domestic nickel increased by 1.35% to 126,800 CNY/ton [3][7] - SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 601 tons to 37,827 tons [3][7] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association indicated a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026, down to approximately 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025 [3][7] - The domestic social inventory of nickel showed slight accumulation, while LME inventory decreased [3][7] - The market sentiment is positive, but actual implementation of news remains uncertain [3][7] Aluminum & Related Products - The price of alumina fluctuated weakly, settling at 2,635 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.38% [4][8] - Domestic aluminum futures showed a strong trend, with prices reaching 22,305 CNY/ton, up by 0.61% [4][8] - The aluminum ingot price in Foshan fell to 21,880 CNY/ton, with a widening spot discount [4][8] - Increased shipments from several mines and the resumption of large-scale mining operations provide support for future ore arrivals [4][8] - The aluminum market may face inventory accumulation pressure as macroeconomic sentiment stabilizes [4][8] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract settling at 8,835 CNY/ton, up by 0.28% [4][10] - Polysilicon prices fluctuated, with the main contract at 60,760 CNY/ton, rising by 4.8% [4][10] - Expectations of further environmental production cuts in the Northwest may support industrial silicon prices [4][10] - The market for photovoltaic materials is experiencing upward price adjustments due to rising silver prices [4][10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 0.44% to 123,520 CNY/ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 3,400 CNY/ton to 104,900 CNY/ton [5][11] - Supply-side production increased by 116 tons to 22,161 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 60 tons [5][11] - Weekly inventory decreased by 652 tons to 109,773 tons, with downstream inventory dropping by 239 tons [5][11] - Market sentiment improved, but pricing mechanisms and transmission pressures remain a concern for some enterprises [5][11]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/26 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/19 -385 4468 95805 45739 -1750.70 -420.54 43.0 49.0 4.73 160400 56450 2025/12/22 -430 5281 95805 48542 -1754.65 -517.00 48.0 51.0 6.58 157750 51750 2025/12/23 -440 4777 95805 49543 -1909.24 -498.41 55.0 54.0 13.16 158575 48875 2025/12/24 -465 5208 95805 52222 -2003.83 -422.80 55.0 54.0 19.69 157025 46525 2025/12/25 -500 5373 95805 59083 - 422.09 55.0 54.0 - - - 变化 -35 165 0 686 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the background of the Fed's loose monetary policy, there is still support on the sentiment side. Copper prices may rise further, but the upward resistance has increased due to factors such as higher - than - expected long - term copper concentrate processing fees and weak year - end consumption [3]. - For aluminum, the overall inventory remains at a relatively low level, and with overseas supply disruptions, there is strong support for aluminum prices. However, weak downstream consumption creates pressure, and it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and rise in the short term [5]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots has tightened marginally, and the visible inventory is at a relatively low level. It is expected that lead prices will run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8]. - For zinc, the shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease marginally. Be vigilant against the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metals funds [9]. - For tin, although the current tin market has weak demand and there is an expectation of supply improvement, considering the low downstream inventory, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - For nickel, although the excess pressure of nickel is still large, the market's short - selling sentiment has declined. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the long - position trend of the futures market has not ended. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position, and pay attention to fundamental dynamics and position changes [18]. - For alumina, the ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly, and the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [21]. - For stainless steel, the market lacks factors for a continuous strong rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [25]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the price has strong support at the bottom due to cost and supply disruptions, while demand is relatively unstable and delivery pressure creates upper - limit suppression. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The offshore RMB broke through 7. Affected by supply - side disturbance news, copper prices remained strong. The main contract of Shanghai copper closed up to 97,680 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper increased by more than 20,000 tons compared with Monday, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.7 to 59,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong expanded, and the transaction was light. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase [2]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: With the support of the Fed's loose monetary policy sentiment, the copper mine supply remains in a tense pattern, and there is a risk of structural shortage in refined copper supply. However, the long - term benchmark of copper concentrate processing fees is slightly higher than expected, and year - end consumption is weak. The main contract of Shanghai copper is expected to run in the range of 95,500 - 98,800 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum ingot inventory continued to increase, but sentiment remained warm. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.25% to 22,275 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract decreased by 10,000 to 653,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 77,000 tons. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 24,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory increased by 4,000 tons. The processing fee of aluminum bars rebounded, and the trading atmosphere was light. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream consumption remained weak at the end of the year [4]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum inventory has rebounded, overseas aluminum inventory has declined oscillatingly, and the overall inventory remains at a relatively low level. With overseas supply disruptions, there is strong support for aluminum prices, while weak downstream consumption creates pressure. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to run in the range of 22,150 - 22,400 yuan/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.52% to 17,311 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 91,100 lots. LME was closed. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,100 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 100 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 35 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 2,500 tons to 17,000 tons [6][7]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the processing fee of lead concentrate has remained flat, and the operating rate of primary lead smelters has increased. The inventory of waste batteries has declined marginally, the operating rate of recycled lead has declined marginally, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has remained basically stable. The supply of domestic lead ingots has tightened marginally, and the visible inventory of lead ingots remains at a relatively low level. It is expected that lead prices will run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.70% to 23,080 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 196,800 lots. LME was closed. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,080 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 80 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was 10 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 5 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 75 yuan/ton. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 41,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 35 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 7,700 tons to 111,600 tons [9]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has increased, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. With the increase in the Shanghai - London ratio, it is expected that the shortage of domestic zinc ore will ease marginally. LME zinc ingot inventory has increased, and the LME zinc month - spread has returned to a Contango structure. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to decline, the spot basis has increased, but the month - spread remains low. Be vigilant against the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metals funds [9]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 25, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 335,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of tin ingot smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum. In Yunnan, the smelting cost was restricted by low processing fees, and year - end consumption was weak. In Jiangxi, the supply of recycled raw materials was insufficient. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises remained stable. In November, the output of sample enterprises increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate increased by 0.69% compared with October, supported by orders from emerging fields. However, high tin prices suppressed downstream procurement willingness, and the spot transaction was light this week [10][11]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although the current tin market has weak demand and there is an expectation of supply improvement, considering the low downstream inventory, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is expected to run in the range of 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [12]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, nickel prices fell and adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 1,254,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was reported at 6,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore delivered to the factory was reported at 51.07 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore delivered to the factory was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines CIF was reported at 52.7 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The price of nickel iron increased slightly, and the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 892 yuan/nickel point, with the average price unchanged from the previous day [13]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Currently, the excess pressure of nickel is still large, but due to the Indonesian government's plan to tax cobalt elements, the market's short - selling sentiment has declined. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to run in the range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract is expected to run in the range of 13,000 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 115,645 yuan, a decrease of 0.11% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 114,700 - 117,500 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 150 yuan (- 0.13%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 112,500 - 114,000 yuan. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 123,520 yuan, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous day's closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 2,150 yuan. The weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons (- 0.6%) from last week, including a decrease of 239 tons in the upstream and 413 tons in the downstream and other links [16]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The Jiuxiaowo lithium mine project is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. On Thursday, some long - positions took the initiative to stop profits in the morning, and the market was boosted by the news that Tianqi Lithium changed the spot pricing method at noon. Although there are occasional disturbances in the off - season concerns, the optimistic demand expectation cannot be falsified, and the long - position trend in the futures market has not ended. The position of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and capital games dominate the market. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position. The LC2605 contract of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to run in the range of 120,600 - 128,000 yuan/ton [17][18]. Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 3 pm on December 25, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.25% to 2,612 yuan/ton during the day, with a total unilateral trading position of 619,700 lots, an increase of 18,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of 16 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB fell 1 US dollar/ton to 308 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 63 yuan. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Thursday were reported at 161,100 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the Guinea CIF price remained unchanged at 66 US dollars/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained unchanged at 67 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, Guinea's shipments are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production reduction expectation is strengthened. The overall non - ferrous sector is trending strongly, and the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to run in the range of 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65% (- 85) on the day, with a unilateral position of 194,500 lots, a decrease of 5,017 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Foshan market was reported at 12,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Wuxi market was reported at 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 290 (+ 35), and the Wuxi basis was - 190 (+ 35). The Foshan Hongwang 201 was reported at 8,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was reported at 905 yuan/nickel, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The recycling price of Baoding 304 scrap steel industrial materials was reported at 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The quotation of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was 8,100 yuan/50 - base ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was 48,495 tons, a decrease of 12,106 tons from the previous day. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory decreased to 1,005,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%, including 631,700 tons of 300 - series inventory, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% [23]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The Indonesian government plans to set the nickel ore production target in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) at about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set in the 2025 RKAB. Although the implementation details are not clear, this news has boosted the Shanghai nickel price and the stainless steel market. However, the actual spot market transaction is still light, and traders are cautious in quoting and mainly wait and see. In the short term, the market lacks factors for a continuous strong rebound, but if the nickel ore supply quota is clearly tightened later, it may still drive prices up quickly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongshanzhonghuan Accounting Firm provides detailed explanations regarding the fluctuations in gross profit margin, related party transactions, inventory management, and overseas subsidiary control for Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company Limited. Group 1: Gross Profit Margin Fluctuations - The fluctuations in gross profit margin are primarily attributed to changes in raw material prices and product structure. For instance, the gross profit margin for copper smelting products decreased from 4.13% to 2.39% due to rising raw material costs, which were 63,500 CNY/ton, 73,800 CNY/ton, and 80,500 CNY/ton from 2023 to the first half of 2025, while sales prices did not increase at the same rate [2] - The gross profit margin for lead and zinc smelting products decreased by 5.47 percentage points in 2023 but gradually recovered, reaching 18.15% in the first half of 2025 [2] Group 2: Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity analysis indicates that fluctuations in raw material prices significantly impact the gross profit margins of copper and lead-zinc smelting products. For example, a 10% increase in raw material prices for copper smelting products would lead to a 9.46 percentage point decrease in gross profit margin [3] Group 3: Related Party Transactions - The related party procurement amounts were 38.85 million CNY, 33.01 million CNY, 271.11 million CNY, and 183.36 million CNY during the reporting period. The pricing of related party transactions is fair and based on normal commercial needs, with a price difference of only 3.70% compared to third-party prices [4] Group 4: Inventory Management - The book value of inventory increased from 3.489 billion CNY at the end of 2022 to 12.987 billion CNY by the end of June 2025, accounting for 26.79% of total assets. The inventory turnover rate decreased from 17.81 to 4.93 [5] - The increase in inventory is mainly due to the expansion of copper smelting business after the merger with Zhongjin Copper Industry, with raw materials and work-in-progress reserves increasing significantly [5] Group 5: Overseas Subsidiary Performance - The Australian subsidiary, Peiliya, reported net profits of 11.605 million AUD, -64.26 million AUD, and 0.44 million AUD over the past three years. The loss in 2023 was primarily due to falling metal prices and increased costs [6] - The company has implemented effective control measures over Peiliya, ensuring that there is no risk of loss of control over overseas assets [6] Group 6: Fundraising and Project Delays - Zhongjin Lingnan raised 3.8 billion CNY through convertible bonds in 2020, with some projects experiencing delays. The "Dominican Mining Company's Maimon Mine" project has been postponed from the end of 2022 to the end of 2025 due to public health events and geological conditions [7][8] - The company plans to raise up to 1.5 billion CNY through a targeted stock issuance, with all funds intended for working capital and bank loan repayment [8]

公告显示，中金岭南于2025年9月12日收到深圳证券交易所（以下简称"深交所"）下发的《关于深圳市 中金岭南有色金属股份有限公司申请向特定对象发行股票的审核问询函》（审核函〔2025〕120036 号）。公司随即会同相关中介机构对问询函所提问题进行了认真研究和落实，并于2025年10月24日在巨 潮资讯网披露了回复及更新后的申请文件。 根据深交所的进一步审核意见，公司再次会同相关中介机构对问询函所列问题进行了逐项补充和回复， 并同步更新了募集说明书等申请文件。此外，鉴于公司2025年第三季度报告已公开披露，公司已对募集 说明书等申请文件中涉及的公司财务数据等内容进行了相应更新，相关文件已于同日在巨潮资讯网披 露。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 深圳市中金岭南有色金属股份有限公司（证券代码：000060，证券简称：中金岭南）于2025年12月26日 发布公告，披露公司已完成向特定对象发行股票审核问询函的回复工作，并对募集说明书等申请文件进 行了更新。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理 ...

格隆汇12月25日丨驰宏锌锗(600497.SH)在互动平台表示，截至目前，公司具备金银镉铋锑等稀贵金属 1000 余吨/年的综合生产能力，公司目前暂未有磷化铟的生产。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current tin market is experiencing a mixed scenario with increasing supply from Indonesia and Myanmar, while domestic demand remains weak, leading to potential price fluctuations in the short term [3][4]. Group 1: Price Information - On December 25, the spot price for Shanghai 1 tin ingot was quoted at 332,750.00 CNY/ton, which is 3,130.0 CNY/ton lower than the futures main price of 335,880.00 CNY/ton [1]. - The futures market closed on December 25 with the main contract for tin at 335,880.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.18%, with a daily trading volume of 298,226 contracts [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Indonesia's exports in November increased nearly twofold, contradicting previous expectations of a decline, while Myanmar's Wa State is ramping up production, with imports of tin ore from Myanmar expected to reach around 8,000 tons in November and December, exceeding earlier forecasts of 4,000-5,000 tons [3]. - Domestic tin solder enterprises are maintaining stable operating rates, with a 0.95% month-on-month increase in production in November, supported by orders from emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and AI servers [3]. Group 3: Market Analysis - According to New Lake Futures research, while supply is increasing due to the recovery in Myanmar and a significant rise in Indonesian exports, domestic tin ore supply remains tight, and smelting plants have not shown a notable increase in production, keeping output relatively stable [4]. - There is a clear sign of weak consumption in the terminal market, with reduced orders from downstream solder enterprises leading to a decline in operating rates, and domestic inventory levels are rising, which may exert downward pressure on prices [4].