Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum Industry Group Co., Ltd. has provided guarantees for its wholly-owned subsidiaries and subsidiaries, with the total amount of external guarantees exceeding 100% of the latest audited net assets, raising concerns about guarantee risks [2][16]. Summary by Sections Guarantee Overview - Tianshan Aluminum has provided maximum guarantee amounts for various loans: 900 million RMB for Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Eighth Division Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. (Tian Aluminum), 400 million RMB for the same company from China Construction Bank, and 100 million RMB for Shihezi New Ren Battery Aluminum Foil Technology Co., Ltd. from China Minsheng Bank [3][9][13]. Guarantee Approval Process - The guarantees were approved in meetings held on December 9 and December 27, 2024, by the Board of Directors and the Third Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders [3][16]. Guarantee Amount Usage - The total new guarantee amount for 2025 is capped at 24.9 billion RMB, with various forms of guarantees including joint liability guarantees and asset pledges [3][16]. Financial Status of Guaranteed Parties - Tian Aluminum has a registered capital of 6.38421 billion RMB and is involved in various metal processing and sales activities [5]. Shihezi New Ren Battery Aluminum Foil Technology Co., Ltd. has a registered capital of 100 million RMB and focuses on battery components and metal materials [7]. Board Opinion - The Board believes that the guarantees will facilitate the normal financing operations of Tian Aluminum and Shihezi Aluminum Foil, which have good asset quality and sufficient debt repayment capabilities [17]. Total Guarantee Amount and Status - After the guarantees, the total external guarantee amount by the company and its subsidiaries is 29.753 billion RMB, which is 110.89% of the latest audited net assets, with no overdue guarantees reported [16][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated higher, with domestic refined copper imports remaining at a loss. The Fed Chairman has cooled the market's expectations of a December interest - rate cut, indicating growing internal differences within the Fed. The US House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown. Domestically, the central bank emphasizes the balance of multiple relationships in its monetary policy. LME copper inventories are stable, while Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories have increased. Downstream demand is restricted by high - price concerns. LME is seeking opinions on new permanent rules. With the boost from precious metals and the cautious optimism of the equity market, copper may be short - term bullish but will likely remain in a high - level oscillation in the off - season. Attention should be paid to overseas financial markets and domestic inventories [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Alumina prices have declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots has narrowed. Alumina plant profits are compressed, with occasional production cuts in loss - making capacities. Alumina inventories are increasing. The internal and external market situations are different. The electrolytic aluminum market is influenced by both long and short factors and will continue to adjust at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the potential for market recovery due to northern heating season production restrictions and the long - AD spread after the spread narrows [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, nickel prices declined slightly. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industry chain shows weakening raw material support and rising stainless - steel inventories. In the new - energy industry chain, the discount coefficient has risen slightly, but the output of ternary precursors in November has decreased. With increasing inventory pressure, nickel prices may oscillate, and inventory changes should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increase, import loss, complex macro - situation, inventory changes, demand constraints, policy impact, and short - term and long - term market trends [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price fluctuations, price and discount changes in the spot market, profit compression and production cuts in alumina plants, inventory pressure, internal - external market differences, and short - term market adjustment [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price decline, inventory reduction, weakening support in the nickel - iron to stainless - steel chain, mixed situation in the new - energy chain, inventory pressure, and oscillating price trend [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in the market, inventory changes in multiple locations (LME, Comex, SHFE, etc.), and changes in other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit and loss [1][3]. - **Lead**: Price changes in the average price, premium and discount, and other aspects, as well as inventory and import profit - and - loss changes [3]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in different regions, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [4]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in different nickel products, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [2][4]. - **Zinc**: Price changes in the market, TC stability, inventory changes in LME and SHFE, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [6]. - **Tin**: Price changes in the market, inventory changes in LME and SHFE, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][15]. - **SHFE Near - to - Far - Month Spread**: Charts present the near - to - far - month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts display the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts present the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series products from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research, and are responsible for different research directions such as precious metals, aluminum - silicon, and lithium - nickel [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Market sentiment has improved, and the fundamentals are strong. Hold long positions and monitor macro - end changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter. If Myanmar's supply recovers smoothly, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they are expected to remain strong [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, while the futures price fluctuates downward. In November, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation, but the pressure is reduced compared to October. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - The market remains in a state of high - level price fluctuations. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in all links. Pay attention to the support level of the spot price, the establishment of the platform company, production control, and demand - side orders. For trading, focus on the 50,000 support level for futures, and hold and observe ETFs/related stocks [5]. Copper - The copper market is in a wait - and - see mode. Macro factors such as interest rate cuts, tariffs, and overseas liquidity will affect copper prices. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore is tight, and downstream demand is resilient. The bottom of copper prices is expected to gradually rise, with the main contract focusing on the 86,500 support level [8]. Zinc - The fundamentals and macro factors of zinc have limited changes. The supply is expected to face less pressure, and the demand is average. The LME zinc price has an upper - bound pressure, while the export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. The main contract of Shanghai zinc is expected to range between 22,300 - 23,000 [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of long - short entanglement. Macro factors exert pressure, and the supply of refined nickel is high. The supply of nickel ore is stable, and the price of nickel - iron is under pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging between 118,000 - 124,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak. Macro driving forces are weakening, the supply of nickel ore is stable, and the price of nickel - iron is under pressure. The supply is still under pressure, and demand is insufficient. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging between 12,400 - 12,800 [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum - alloy market has reached a new high. The cost is strongly supported, but demand is weak due to high prices. Inventory is accumulating. The price of ADC12 is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract ranging between 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [15][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market fluctuates widely. The supply is gradually increasing, and demand is optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories and downstream demand changes [20]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a weak - supply and weak - demand situation, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly. The electrolytic aluminum market is driven by macro factors, with strong capital sentiment but weak fundamentals. The price may test the 22,000 pressure level [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.15% to 291,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 155.03% to 85.00 dollars/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% month - on - month. In October, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% [2]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 1.23% to 5,992.0 tons, and social inventory increased by 5.22% to 7,033.0 tons [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 52.38% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the national operating rate increased by 9.98% to 68.12% [4]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory decreased by 1.08% to 55.20 million tons [4]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50,500 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis increased by 117.76% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, and the import volume increased by 28.46% to 0.13 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.77% to 25.90 million tons [5]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.03% to 86,795 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 84.77 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and the electrolytic copper rod operating rate increased by 1.54 percentage points [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 19.59 million tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.95% to 11.50 million tons [8]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.22% to 22,610 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 542.25 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and the galvanizing operating rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points [10]. - **Inventory**: The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots decreased by 1.30% to 15.96 million tons, and the LME inventory increased by 1.63% to 3.6 million tons [10]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.70% to 120,450 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2.10% to - 201 dollars/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of Chinese refined nickel increased by 0.84% to 35,900 tons, and the import volume increased by 124.36% [11]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE inventory increased by 1.19% to 37,187 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.14% to 49,133 tons [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,700 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 2.20% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the import volume increased by 2.70% [12]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 0.65% to 48.89 million tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.42% to 7.14 million tons [12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread of Foshan crushed aluminum increased by 2.42% [15][17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 2.95% [15][17]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.82% to 5.58 million tons [15][17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.22% to 83,300 yuan/ton, and the basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) increased by 30.17% [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and the demand increased by 8.70% [20]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate in October decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons [20]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.23% to 21,670 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 170.1 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of alumina increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and the production of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [21]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 62.70 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.21% to 54.4 million tons [21].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 13, 2025, to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities. Summary by Category Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 86,770, LME price is 10,835, and the ratio is 8.00; for the three - month contract, China price is 86,840, LME price is 10,849, and the ratio is 8.00. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.07, with a loss of 744.41, and a profit of 323.68 for spot export [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22,610, LME price is 3,199, and the ratio is 7.07; for the three - month contract, China price is 22,720, LME price is 3,071, and the ratio is 5.71. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.49, with a loss of 4,559.88 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 21,660, LME price is 2,867, and the ratio is 7.56; for the three - month contract, China price is 21,880, LME price is 2,895, and the ratio is 7.52. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.32, with a loss of 2,195.36 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 122,250, LME price is 14,821, and the ratio is 8.25. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.17, with a loss of 2,084.11 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 17,350, LME price is 2,051, and the ratio is 8.45; for the three - month contract, China price is 17,670, LME price is 2,075, and the ratio is 10.91. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.71, with a loss of 533.04 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 210, 210, 220, and 190 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 535, 968, 1410, and 1853 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 90, 130, 150, and 175 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 245, 295, 295, and 305 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 219, 339, 459, and 579 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 265, 275, 275, and 265 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 212, 320, 428, and 536 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 340, - 160, 20, and 280 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts is - 1150, and the theoretical spread is 6046 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 115 and 95 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 96 and 606 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 20 and 70 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 89 and 220 [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 45 and 310 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 91 and 206 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.82, 3.97, 4.91, 0.96, 1.24, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous contracts) are 3.56, 3.78, 5.22, 0.94, 1.38, and 0.68 respectively [5]

供需端：受季节性因素影响，9月份国内锌精矿产量有所回落，进口矿量保持高位，但进口处于亏损局面，限 制进口量的释放。精炼端，10月份国内精锌产量尚处于60万吨以上高位，不过随着矿加工费加速下跌，以及部 分再生锌厂因原料价格走高采购困难，利润倒挂下主动减停产，预计11月份精锌产量或下滑。消费层面，10月 份锌下游加工企业开工表现尚可，进入11月份淡季，预计后续锌下游消费或难有好的表现。 （来源：华闻期货） 来源：华闻期货 核心逻辑 宏观面：10月份美联储降息尘埃落定，市场关注12月会议前美相关经济数据变化，能否降息存疑。 观点：整体来看，在国内供应压力减弱、海外低库存背景下，预计11月份锌价下行空间有限，沪锌大概率低位 区间震荡，整体重心或较10月份有所上移。 PART 01 行情回顾 9月份10月份国内锌价低位震荡，整体重心有所上移，而海外锌价表现坚挺。月内国内锌市场供应压力仍存， 对锌价形成压制，不过海外低库存亦有支撑，另美联储降息及中美关税问题缓和亦对锌价有提振。 PART 02 基本面分析 2.1 供应端—锌精矿供应逐渐收紧 9月我国锌精矿产量31.45万吨，环比-8.79%，同比-9.99%。9月我国进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for each metal variety: - **Copper**: Try to gradually buy on dips for Shanghai copper futures, with a short - term upside pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton and a downside support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - **Zinc**: Consider buying on dips and selling out - of - the - money put options. The upside pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000, and the short - term downside support is around 22,300 - 22,400 [5]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Hold long positions for Shanghai aluminum, with an upside pressure range of 21,800 - 22,000 and a downside support range of 20,800 - 21,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection. For alumina, adopt a wait - and - see approach, with an upside pressure range of 3,000 - 3,200 and a downside support range of 2,600 - 2,700. For recycled aluminum alloy, take a bullish view, with an upside pressure range of 21,500 - 22,000 and a downside support range of 20,500 - 20,800 [6]. - **Tin**: Adopt a bullish view on range - bound fluctuations. The upside pressure range is 290,000 - 300,000, and the downside support range is 260,000 - 270,000. Consider buying out - of - the money put options for protection [7]. - **Lead**: Continue to use the strategy of selling both call and put options in a wide - range. The short - term downside support is around 17,300 - 17,400, and the upside pressure is around 17,500 - 17,600 [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, consider selling out - of - the money put options and pay attention to whether the volatility rebounds from a low level. The upside pressure is around 120,000 - 121,000 yuan, and the downside support is around 118,000 - 120,000 yuan. For stainless steel, it is in a range - bound consolidation. The support level is around 12,400 - 12,500, and the upside pressure is around 12,800 - 13,000 [9]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall upward - trending pattern of the non - ferrous metal sector remains unchanged. The expectation of the end of the US government shutdown boosts market risk appetite, and China's PPI turning positive for the first time also drives the rebound of industrial products. Non - ferrous metals show a fluctuating recovery [12]. - In the short term, risk assets were under pressure last week due to the economic slowdown in the US and China and the tightening of US dollar liquidity. However, after the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, market risk appetite increased, and the tightness of US dollar liquidity is expected to ease. China's inflation data in October improved, and the Shanghai copper market rebounded during the day [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, the siphon effect of the US market still exists, making it difficult to solve the structural contradiction of global copper inventory. China's fixed - asset investment growth rate turned negative in the first three quarters, and external pressure is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, the macro - level is expected to take further measures to boost copper demand. With the increase in smelter maintenance and the tightening of raw material supply, China's electrolytic copper production is expected to decline continuously in the fourth quarter. As copper demand enters the seasonal peak season, China's copper inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the copper price center is expected to rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The overall upward - trending pattern of the non - ferrous metal sector remains unchanged. The possible end of the US government shutdown and China's PPI turning positive boost market risk appetite. Copper, aluminum, and tin are relatively strong, alumina has a strong willingness to rebound, lead and zinc are rising slowly, and nickel and stainless steel are bottom - grinding. Pay attention to the fundamental resonance driving changes [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: Pay attention to China's retail sales, real estate development investment, and social financing data. Also, pay attention to whether the US government shutdown situation changes and whether CPI and PPI data are released as scheduled [12]. - **Variety Strategies**: Each metal variety has its own supply - demand situation, price range, and investment strategies, as detailed in the investment rating section above [4][5][6][7][8][9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Market Review - Copper closed at 86,480 yuan with a 0.63% increase; zinc closed at 22,670 yuan with a 0.22% decrease; aluminum closed at 21,725 yuan with a 0.46% increase; alumina closed at 2,829 yuan with a 1.65% increase; tin closed at 286,560 yuan with a 1.08% increase; lead closed at 17,505 yuan with a 0.49% increase; nickel closed at 119,680 yuan with a 0.20% increase; stainless steel closed at 12,605 yuan with a 0.32% increase; and cast aluminum alloy closed at 21,105 yuan with a 0.45% increase [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different net long - short positions and changes, affected by factors such as the increase of long - position main players, the decrease of short - position main players, and non - main - force capital influence [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy, are provided [19][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Chain - For each metal variety, there are corresponding charts showing inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc., such as copper's exchange inventory change and copper concentrate refining fee; zinc's inventory change and zinc concentrate processing fee change; etc. [24][27] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Arbitrage - There are charts showing the arbitrage - related data of each metal variety, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio change and the premium - discount between Shanghai copper and London copper; zinc's Shanghai - London ratio change and LME zinc spot premium - discount; etc. [56][57] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Options - There are charts showing the option - related data of each metal variety, such as copper's option historical volatility and weighted implied volatility; zinc's historical volatility and option weighted implied volatility; etc. [72][74]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 11月8日，白银有色（维权）（601212.SH）发布公告称，其下属三家子公司在税务"双随机"检查中查出 涉税问题，合计缴纳税款、滞纳金及罚款超过7500万元，同时收到退税款1667余万元。 其中，厂坝公司需补缴税款4140.39万元，缴纳滞纳金2759.90万元，同时因资源税纳税义务发生时间差 异调整、补缴税款调减应纳税所得额等原因，收到退税款1667.40万元；一致长通需补缴税款313.85万 元，缴纳罚款187.84万元及滞纳金9.28万元；铁运物流则需补缴税款136.34万元，缴纳滞纳金48.83万 元。 截至11月7日，上述三家公司已完成全部税款、滞纳金及罚款的缴纳入库，退税款也已完成退库流程。 白银有色方面在公告中表示，该事项不属于前期会计差错，不涉及前期财务数据追溯调整。缴纳的税 款、滞纳金、罚款及收到的退税款已相应计入上述三家公司2025年当期损益，预计相应减少白银有色 2025年度利润。 截至发稿，白银有色方面未就上述涉税问题向《中国经营报》记者作出回应。 值得注意的是，这并非白银有色年内首次披露税务补缴事宜。今年8月9日，白银有色曾公告下属 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices made a slight correction this week, finding support at the 85,000 level from downstream concentrated price fixing. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, with the fundamentals remaining stable but weak. The 85,000 level is a psychological price for downstream price fixing, and the industry support at this level should be monitored [1]. - The long - term reduction of electrolytic aluminum production in Iceland has been finalized, and the high electricity prices overseas have increased the expectation of production cuts in other capacities. Aluminum prices have strengthened significantly, but the domestic demand for aluminum ingots and aluminum products has weakened, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The future supply and demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, and it is likely to rise in the long - term, but the actual performance may fall short of expectations [2]. - The center of zinc prices has risen this week. The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak. The export window has opened under the current pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets. Given the weak domestic consumption and potential short - term supply reduction at the end of the year, the price may not fall deeply. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. Steel mills increased production slightly in October, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, and inventory remains at a high level. With the Indonesian policy having a certain motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [9]. - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week, and the near - term spread strengthened. The supply - demand mismatch has been partially alleviated, but the demand is expected to weaken. It is predicted that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, and cautious operation is recommended [12]. - Tin prices fluctuated this week. The supply has marginally recovered, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity. The domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand in Q4 are expected to be in a slightly loose balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [16]. - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is generally decreasing. The upward potential in the future depends on inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding willingness [16]. - The supply of nickel is slightly reduced, the demand is weak, and the inventory is continuously increasing. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the spot premium of Shanghai copper fluctuated, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 825, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, copper prices corrected slightly. The market is generally not pessimistic about next year's demand. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until Q1 next year, and the 85,000 level may be a psychological price for downstream price fixing [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots increased, the domestic and imported alumina prices remained unchanged, the domestic social inventory of aluminum was not provided in the table, and the LME inventory decreased by 2000 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The long - term reduction of electrolytic aluminum production in Iceland has been finalized, and high overseas electricity prices have increased the expectation of production cuts. Aluminum prices have strengthened, but the domestic demand has weakened, and the inventory has increased. The future supply and demand may remain in a tight balance [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the spot premium of zinc changed, the prices of zinc ingots in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong increased, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 400 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrates is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak. The export window has opened. Given the weak domestic consumption and potential short - term supply reduction at the end of the year, the price may not fall deeply [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the price of 304 hot - rolled coils decreased by 50, and the prices of other products remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. Steel mills increased production slightly in October, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, and inventory remains at a high level [9]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the spot premium of lead remained unchanged, the social inventory was not clearly presented in the table, and the LME inventory increased by 24,525 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply - demand mismatch has been partially alleviated, but the demand is expected to weaken. It is predicted that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the spot import and export earnings of tin changed, the LME inventory decreased by 20 [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of tin has marginally recovered, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity. The domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the basis of industrial silicon in different regions changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 176 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon in Q4 are expected to be in a slightly loose balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the prices of SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased, the basis of the main and near - term contracts changed, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 608 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is generally decreasing [16]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel increased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 96 [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of nickel is slightly reduced, the demand is weak, and the inventory is continuously increasing. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated upwards, with domestic refined copper imports remaining at a loss. The US Senate passing a temporary funding bill and China's measures to boost private investment have lifted market sentiment. LME copper inventories increased by 375 tons to 136,275 tons, Comex inventories rose by 2,662 tons to 337,752 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventories decreased by 0.38 million tons to 19.95 million tons. Copper prices may show short - term optimism, and attention should be paid to overseas financial markets and domestic inventories [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. Alumina factory profits are being compressed, with occasional production cuts in loss - making capacities. The market is in a state of internal - external differentiation, and electrolytic aluminum will continue to adjust at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunities of AD after the narrowing of the price difference [1][3]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.53% to $15,100 per ton, while Shanghai nickel remained flat at 119,490 yuan per ton. Indonesia has suspended new nickel smelter licenses. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is sluggish, and the new energy industry chain has a slight increase in the discount coefficient. Nickel prices may still fluctuate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increase, influenced by US and Chinese policies. Changes in inventory and demand, and the impact of LME's new rules. Short - term optimism with attention to market and inventory [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price increase, compressed alumina factory profits, internal - external differentiation, and short - term high - level adjustment [1][3]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price increase, Indonesia's new policy, weak raw material support in the industry chain, and potential price fluctuations [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various aspects such as market prices, scrap copper, and downstream products. Inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and social inventories [4]. - **Lead**: Price changes in lead products, inventory changes in LME and SHFE [4]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in aluminum products, raw materials, and downstream processing fees. Inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories [5]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in nickel products, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories [5]. - **Zinc**: Price changes in zinc products, TC, and inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories [7]. - **Tin**: Price changes in tin products, inventory changes in LME and SHFE [7]. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][11] - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][19] - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26] - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33] - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39] - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the smelting profit trends of copper, aluminum, nickel - iron, zinc, and stainless steel 304 from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45] Non - Core Content (Not Included in Main Summary) - Team Introduction: The report introduces the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [48][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the release of October inflation data, the month-on-month PPI unexpectedly turned positive, with non-ferrous metals performing prominently. However, the month-on-month PPI is not expected to continuously exceed expectations, and the rise in non-ferrous metal prices alone is insufficient to drive a significant increase in PPI. The year-on-year recovery of PPI next year is mainly due to the base effect, and the recovery of non-ferrous metal prices alone cannot support the year-on-year PPI to significantly exceed 0 [2]. - The reasons for the unexpected positive month-on-month PPI in October include the continuous deviation of the prediction results of PMI ex-factory prices and purchase prices since August, the lag effect of the recovery of upstream prices in the third quarter due to poor demand, and the support of coal and non-ferrous metals at the industry level. It is also expected that the year-on-year PPI may remain volatile within the year [2]. - Although the weight of non-ferrous related industries in PPI has increased, oil, black metals, and coal still dominate. A 10% increase in the month-on-month price of the non-ferrous metal industry will drive a 0.6 percentage point increase in the month-on-month PPI, and a 10% increase in the 3-month moving average of copper prices will lead to a 0.135 percentage point recovery in the month-on-month PPI [2]. - Regarding the conditions for the year-on-year PPI to turn positive next year, only in scenarios where the month-on-month PPI remains at 0.1% or follows the seasonal pattern will the year-on-year PPI turn positive in the middle of next year. Based on the assumption of commodity price trends, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in August next year [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Why did the month-on-month PPI exceed expectations? - Since August, the prediction results of PMI ex-factory prices and purchase prices have continuously deviated, and the performance of purchase prices is significantly better than that of ex-factory prices, which led to the deviation of the October prediction results [5]. - Poor demand caused a lag effect in the recovery of upstream prices in the third quarter. From July to September, the month-on-month PPI of production materials showed an obvious recovery trend [5]. - At the industry level, coal and non-ferrous metals supported the unexpected positive month-on-month PPI in October. The coal price increase was driven by anti-involution policies, and the sharp rise in copper prices was due to global supply disruptions and increased demand from AI enterprise capital expenditures [5]. 2. Has the weight of non-ferrous metals in PPI increased? 2.1 From an industry perspective, the proportion of non-ferrous metals has increased, but oil and black metals are still the main contributors - The weight of non-ferrous related industries has increased. Compared with 2020, the revenue share of the non-ferrous metal smelting and processing industry in 2024 increased by 1.24 percentage points to 6.24%. However, since 2020, the industries with the largest contributions have still been oil, black metals, coal, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [2][11]. - The revenue share of each industry in 2024 did not show obvious structural changes compared with 2020. The top ten industries remained the same, only with slight changes in the ranking order [12]. - The industry concentration has increased, and the industries with a significant increase in proportion are those with high weights. The top five industries with an increase in proportion are the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, power and heat production and supply industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, and gas production and supply industry [13]. - A 10 percentage point month-on-month increase in the non-ferrous metal industry will drive a 0.6 percentage point increase in the month-on-month PPI. Assuming the prices of other industries remain unchanged, a moderate recovery in non-ferrous metal prices will drive the year-on-year PPI to turn positive in June next year [16]. 2.2 From the perspective of underlying commodities, the predictive role of copper prices has increased - Using the combination of oil and steel for prediction had good results before 2020, but the prediction effect weakened significantly after 2020 [18]. - Adding copper improved the prediction effect for the period after 2022, and replacing copper with aluminum also improved the prediction effect, but not as effectively as copper [18]. - Adding coal improved the overall prediction effect, and the combination of oil, steel, copper, and coal had the best prediction effect [19]. - A 10% increase in the 3-month moving average of copper prices will drive a 0.135 percentage point increase in the month-on-month PPI. Assuming the prices of oil, steel, and coal remain unchanged, a moderate month-on-month increase in copper prices can support the year-on-year PPI to turn positive in July next year [20]. 3. Conditions for the year-on-year PPI to turn positive 3.1 Even if prices remain unchanged, the year-on-year PPI will be around 0 next year - Assuming the month-on-month PPI remains around 0%, the year-on-year PPI will be difficult to turn positive next year [26]. - Assuming the month-on-month PPI remains at 0.1%, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in June next year [27]. - Assuming the month-on-month PPI follows the seasonal pattern, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in July next year, and by the end of 2026, the year-on-year PPI will recover to around 0.9% [29]. 3.2 From the perspective of anti-involution - One method is to predict each major industry category based on the understanding of anti-involution policies and then estimate the overall month-on-month PPI based on weights. However, this method has two problems: anti-involution does not necessarily lead to price increases, and it only focuses on the supply side while ignoring the demand side [31]. - Another method is to estimate the recovery trend of PPI based on historical experience. Referring to the previous round of supply-side reforms, it took 9 months for the year-on-year PPI to turn positive. Based on this, the year-on-year PPI is expected to turn positive around mid-2026 [32]. 3.3 Based on the price prediction model of oil, steel, copper, and coal - It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will decline slightly to $60 per barrel, the price of rebar will first decline and then rise slightly to 3,400 yuan per ton, the LME copper price will rise moderately to around $11,000 per ton, and the coking coal price will recover moderately to 1,300 yuan per ton. Based on this, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in August next year [33].