Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Ship companies may issue price increase letters for April recently. The current 04 contract corresponds to a freight rate of $2800, with a basis of -$300, which has already priced in short-term risk premiums, mainly due to a rise in fuel costs (around +$300), and the valuation is relatively reasonable. Geopolitical sentiment is fluctuating. It is expected that the short-term market will remain strong and volatile. The fundamental contradiction of the peak-season contracts lies in geopolitics, and it may be too early for left-side trading with large upward potential [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1992.7, up 7.78%, with a basis of -447.2, a trading volume of 66207, an open interest of 28602, and an open interest change of 797 [2] - EC2605: Yesterday's closing price was 2050.0, up 7.44%, with a basis of -504.5, a trading volume of 3113, an open interest of 2223, and an open interest change of 336 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 2329.4, up 7.35%, with a basis of -783.9, a trading volume of 16645, an open interest of 15615, and an open interest change of 168 [2] - EC2607: Yesterday's closing price was 2434.9, up 6.90%, with a basis of -889.4, a trading volume of 490, an open interest of 802, and an open interest change of 81 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 2295.5, up 6.39%, with a basis of -750.0, a trading volume of 1655, an open interest of 3132, and an open interest change of 253 [2] - EC2609: Yesterday's closing price was 1684.1, up 6.11%, with a basis of -138.6, a trading volume of 268, an open interest of 582, and an open interest change of 51 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1536.0, up 5.26%, a trading volume of 4582, an open interest of 9144, and an open interest change of -402 [2] - EC2612: Yesterday's closing price was 1838.5, up 3.12%, with a basis of -293.0, a trading volume of 171, an open interest of 386, and an open interest change of -36 [2] Month Spread Information - EC2604 - 2606: The previous day's spread was -336.7, with a daily change of -15.6 and a weekly change of -154.6 [2] - EC2604 - 2605: The previous day's spread was -57.3, with a daily change of 1.8 and a weekly change of -37.0 [2] - EC2606 - 2610: The previous day's spread was 793.4, with a daily change of 82.6 and a weekly change of 238.2 [2] Spot Index Information - Spot (European Line): Updated every Monday, as of March 9, 2026, the index was 1545.46 points, up 5.61% from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European Line): Updated on Friday, as of March 6, 2026, the price was $1452/TEU, up 2.25% from the previous period [2] European Line Spot Situation - Yesterday, major shipping companies issued emergency fuel surcharges for long-term contracts. There are rumors that HMM offered a special price of $1800 [3] - In the second half of March, the expected trading center is $2300, but the FAK quote (the part included in the index) is expected to be around $2500, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market [3] Related News - ONE and MSC added emergency fuel surcharges of $320 and $300 respectively [4] - Three ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and one oil tanker and one VLGC passed through yesterday [4]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 12 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | | | | | 集运: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三集运欧线全线上涨，主力 | EC2604 | 合约涨幅 | 7.15%。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、以外长称不寻求"无休止战争"，将与美协商对伊朗行动结束时间。以色列外 | 交部长萨尔 | 10 | 日称，以色列并不寻求与伊朗进行"无休止的战争"，将在适当时 | | | | ...

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The freight index futures fluctuated greatly due to the rapid change in the Middle - East situation. The market recovered today, possibly affected by the potential continuous impact of mine - laying in the Strait of Hormuz on navigation. Although the suspension of the Middle - East route may lead to an overflow of shipping capacity to other routes, the impact is limited, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply of shipping capacity on the European route remains unchanged. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the sentiment of far - month contracts and the futures market, which may cause the index to strengthen periodically but is also prone to significant corrections. Attention should be paid to the convergence of spot and futures prices in the second half of March when approaching delivery, and there are opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The freight index futures fluctuated greatly due to the Middle - East situation. The market recovered today, possibly affected by the potential continuous impact of mine - laying in the Strait of Hormuz on navigation. After the Spring Festival, it is still the off - season for transportation. Short - term tariff issues are unlikely to trigger exporters to rush shipments, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The shipping capacity supply in March and April is still at a high level in the same period of history. Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not affect the European route, the Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down, which can continue to digest the shipping capacity pressure [7] - **Spot Price**: Leading shipping companies announced price increases in early February, but the prices in early March still mainly follow the late - February prices. The price increase in the off - season may be more for price stabilization and difficult to be actually implemented. Attention should be paid to the actual cargo - booking situation later [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the sentiment of far - month contracts and the futures market, which may cause the index to strengthen periodically but is also prone to significant corrections. Attention should be paid to the convergence of spot and futures prices in the second half of March when approaching delivery, and there are opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7] 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: The China Export Container Transport Market was affected by the sharp escalation of the geopolitical situation. The transport market faced challenges, the freight rates of relevant routes fluctuated sharply, and the comprehensive index rose. On March 6, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1489.19 points, a 11.7% increase from the previous period [8] - **European Route**: The eurozone's unemployment rate in January fell slightly to 6.1%, indicating a stable economic growth. However, the uncertainty has increased significantly recently. The war in the Middle - East has pushed up energy prices, and the US tariff policy is undecided. The European economy still faces many uncertainties. The transport market on the Asia - Europe route was basically stable this week, with flat demand and a slight increase in freight rates. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1452/TEU, a 2.3% increase from the previous period [8][9] - **Mediterranean Route**: The market situation was basically the same as that of the European route, and the spot - market booking prices continued to rise. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2360/TEU, a 2.4% increase from the previous period [9] - **North American Route**: The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, better than market expectations. The employment market showed signs of stabilization. The US military operations in the Middle - East pushed up energy prices, which may lead to increased inflation pressure. The transport demand was weak this week, and the freight rates continued to rise. On March 6, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $1940/FEU and $2717/FEU respectively, with increases of 4.5% and 1.0% from the previous period [9] - **Other News**: Trump said the war with Iran might end soon. The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz was increasing, and he considered taking over the strait. Affected by this news, US oil prices plunged. The G7 finance ministers held a phone meeting to discuss how to deal with the soaring oil prices. They basically reached a consensus not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Goldman Sachs estimated that European natural gas prices might rise by 130% and oil prices by $18 per barrel. The US Supreme Court ruled that some US tariffs were illegal, and China urged the US to cancel them [9] 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On March 9, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1545.46 points, an 82.06 - point increase (5.6%) from March 2; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1121.22 points, a 76.14 - point increase (7.3%) from March 2 [11] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Quotes**: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts such as EC2604, EC2605, etc., including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report includes charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical tensions are disrupting global supply chains, with the Red Sea crisis affecting shipping operations and domestic demand for automobiles showing signs of pressure, indicating challenges for economic recovery [1] Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Impact - The Red Sea crisis has led to over a hundred ships being blocked, significantly impacting global trade [1] - Recent attacks in the Strait of Hormuz highlight the escalating regional risks, despite signals of de-escalation from the U.S. [1] - Domestic automobile production and sales have declined year-on-year and month-on-month, reflecting ongoing pressures on internal demand [1] - The U.S. core CPI remains stable, providing room for potential adjustments in monetary policy [1] Group 2: Commodity and Market Analysis - Oil prices saw a 7% increase in the SC night market, influenced by the IEA's announcement to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves [2][12] - The G7 energy ministers did not reach an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves, opting for a situation assessment first [2] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels as of the week ending March 6, 2026 [13] - The European shipping index (EC) rose by 7.15%, with Maersk maintaining pricing despite seasonal demand challenges [3] - The Dow Jones index experienced a pullback, with market dynamics shifting from "expectation-driven" to "profit-driven" as companies begin to disclose annual and quarterly reports [10] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The automotive sector reported a significant drop in production and sales, with February figures showing a 31.7% and 23.1% decline month-on-month, respectively [7] - The domestic methanol production capacity is under pressure, with a decrease in operational load due to maintenance activities [14] - The rubber market is experiencing a rebound due to seasonal low production, with supply constraints expected to persist until May [15] - The aluminum market is facing supply risks due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly affecting production in the Middle East [22] Group 4: Financial Market Trends - The financing balance in the stock market increased by 9.773 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards sectors with strong earnings potential [10] - The bond market saw a slight decline, with the 10-year treasury yield rising to 1.8175% amid heightened global risk aversion [11] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain cautious, with a focus on domestic fundamentals and policy adjustments in response to geopolitical developments [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating of the previously recommended overweight stocks, including stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, is downgraded to neutral. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with non - metallic building materials rising across the board. Shipping futures led the gains, while energy products led the losses [1]. - For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it is important to determine the current stage of geopolitical conflicts, which affects the market's judgment on inflation and the economy. It is recommended to use the neutral scenario as the benchmark for asset allocation. In the short term, it is advisable to appropriately manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [1]. - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectation of the government's active policy support in the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the market will shift to the verification stage of actual data [1]. - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to geopolitical events and domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) rising 7.15%. Non - metallic building materials all rose, with PVC up 5.63%. Chemical products mostly rose, with butadiene rubber up 5.51%. Oils and fats and oilseeds mostly rose, with soybean meal up 3.58%. Agricultural and sideline products mostly rose, with red dates up 2.12%. Black commodities mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.90%. Precious metals showed mixed performance, with Shanghai gold up 0.73%. Energy products led the losses, with crude oil down 9.61%. New energy materials mostly fell, with lithium carbonate down 5.14%. Base metals mostly fell, with Shanghai tin down 0.71% [1]. - **Financial Market**: The performance of financial market products such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures, foreign exchange, and interest rates showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 futures rose 0.43% on the day, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.01% [7]. - **Industry Index**: Different industries in the China Securities Industry Index showed different trends. For example, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry rose 0.73% on the day, while the national defense and military industry fell 1.51% [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodities**: Overseas commodities such as energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products also had different price changes. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil fell 8.84% on the day, and COMEX gold rose 1.86% [10][11]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: Domestic main commodities including shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products showed various price movements. For example, the container shipping European line rose 7.51% on the day, and gold rose 0.2% [12][13][14]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: Affected by the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas events, stock indices may enter a shock adjustment period, and it is necessary to observe the actual situation of domestic economic data to form the next trend [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Constrained by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions, the performance of non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected from the perspective of financial attributes [1]. - **TS and TF**: Relatively recommended for allocation [1]. 3.3 Short - term Judgment of Each Variety - **Financial**: Stock index futures, stock index options, treasury bond futures, and precious metals are all expected to be in a shock state. The short - term judgment of gold and silver is affected by factors such as inflation expectations, US fundamental data, and Fed monetary policy [4]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line is expected to be in a shock - weak state, affected by geopolitical events, the passage volume of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the situation in the Middle East [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as policy issuance, production and shipment, and cost [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as supply disturbances, policy changes, and demand expectations [4]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Most energy chemical products are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, oil price fluctuations, and macro - level changes [4][5]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as the situation in the Middle East, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand [4][5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - In the past week (20260302 - 20260308), US stock market indices and the Hang Seng index declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Hang Seng index changing -1.24%, -2.02%, -3.01%, and -3.28% respectively [4] - A - shares generally fell, with energy sectors leading the gainers. The wind all - A index changed -2.30%, and most of the other major A - share indices also declined [5][6] - In the past week, most Chinese government bond yields of various maturities decreased, while the US Treasury yield curve shifted upward overall. The US dollar appreciated [7][8][9] - Gold prices dropped, and crude oil prices soared. Brent crude oil futures prices rose 27.88% to $92.69 per barrel [10] - The February US non - farm payrolls report showed poor employment conditions, and the Fed faces a dilemma. The Fed may have more motivation to cut interest rates but may postpone the timing [11] - Looking ahead, in the A - share market, there are still structural opportunities due to the ongoing Iran situation and the "Two Sessions". In the bond market, the Chinese central bank may cut interest rates in 2026. In the commodity and exchange rate market, the US stagflation may cause the Fed to delay rate cuts, and the US dollar may strengthen [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Stock Market - US stocks: The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by -1.24%, -2.02%, and -3.01% respectively in the past week [4] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng index decreased by -3.28% in the past week [4] - A - shares: The wind all - A index decreased by -2.30%. Among different indices, the decline rates varied, and 7 out of 30 CITIC industries rose, with the petroleum and petrochemical and coal industries leading the gains with a weekly increase of more than 3.0% [6] Bond Market - Chinese government bonds: Most yields of various maturities decreased in the past week. The 10 - year government bond futures contract rose 0.13% compared to February 27, 2026, while the yield of the 10 - year active bond increased by 0.57 BP to 1.7810% compared to February 28, 2026 [7] - US Treasury bonds: The US Treasury yield curve shifted upward overall in the past week. As of March 6, 2026, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 18 BP to 4.15% compared to February 27, 2026 [8] Exchange Rate Market - The US dollar appreciated in the past week. The US dollar index increased by 1.34%, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen increased by 1.81%, 0.64%, and 1.11% respectively. The exchange rates of the US dollar against offshore and onshore RMB also increased [9] Commodity Market - Gold: Gold prices declined in the past week. London spot gold decreased by 1.81% to $5127.55 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures decreased by 2.70% to $5137.50 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also fell, but to a lesser extent [10] - Crude oil: Brent crude oil futures prices soared 27.88% to $92.69 per barrel in the past week [10] Macroeconomic Situation - The February US non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected increase of 58,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up 0.1% from the previous month. The Fed faces a dilemma due to poor employment and rising inflation expectations [11] Market Outlook - A - shares: The impact of the Iran geopolitical situation may continue, but the "Two Sessions" are expected to release policy benefits. Suggested sectors to focus on include energy, precious metals, shipping, military, and technology [12] - Bond market: The Chinese central bank may cut interest rates in 2026, and the current 10 - year government bond yield around 1.80% has long - term investment value [12] - Commodity and exchange rate: The US stagflation may cause the Fed to delay rate cuts, the US dollar may strengthen, and commodity prices other than crude oil and precious metals may face pressure [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of AlphaClaw, a financial research AI tool developed by Entropy Technology, which aims to enhance the efficiency of financial analysts by automating complex research workflows and providing actionable insights [3][6][30]. Group 1: AlphaClaw Overview - AlphaClaw is designed specifically for financial professionals, evolving from a Q&A AI assistant to a fully autonomous AI analyst capable of executing complex investment research tasks [6][30]. - It integrates with the AlphaEngine platform, providing access to a vast database of financial research and data, which distinguishes it from other AI tools like OpenClaw [30][33]. Group 2: Key Features and Use Cases - One of the standout features allows users to extract investment philosophies from extensive documents, such as the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting transcripts, and apply these insights to current market analyses [9][11][13]. - AlphaClaw can assist fundamental investors by transforming their unique stock-picking ideas into quantifiable strategies without requiring coding skills, thus bridging the gap between qualitative insights and quantitative analysis [18][22]. - During earnings season, AlphaClaw can generate performance reviews in the user's writing style, significantly reducing the time analysts spend on report writing [25][28]. Group 3: Data and Security - The tool's effectiveness is attributed to its access to a comprehensive database that includes research reports, meeting minutes, and industry insights, ensuring that analyses are grounded in relevant data [32][34]. - AlphaClaw employs a "Local-First" architecture, prioritizing data security by ensuring that sensitive investment strategies remain confidential and are not used for training AI models [36][42]. Group 4: Future Implications - The article emphasizes that AlphaClaw is not merely a research assistant but a tool that enables analysts to focus on higher-value tasks by automating routine processes [39][40]. - The CEO of Entropy Technology highlights the goal of empowering professional investors to function as a "one-person research team," suggesting a shift in how investment research is conducted in the AI era [41][47].

Market Analysis - The A-share market continues its upward trend, with a notable divergence among individual stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4133.43 points, up 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.78% to 14465.41 points. The ChiNext Index increased by 1.31% to 3349.53 points, but the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 1.37% to 1401.08 points, indicating internal differentiation within the technology sector [2][5]. - The total market turnover reached approximately 2.53 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 4.6% compared to the previous trading day, reflecting a high level of market activity. There were 2055 stocks that rose, while 3284 stocks fell, showcasing a structural market characteristic [2][5]. Sector Performance - The new energy sector experienced a significant surge, with photovoltaic inverter and lithium battery electrolyte indices rising by 5.30% and 4.60%, respectively. The energy storage index increased by 3.22%. Notably, the stock price of CATL surged nearly 6%, reaching 396.8 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 1.83 trillion yuan. The market continues to favor the new energy sector, driven by the rapid development of artificial intelligence and the inclusion of "computing and electricity synergy" in the government work report [5][7]. - Conversely, the defense, media, computer, and electronics sectors saw declines of 1.51%, 1.20%, 0.79%, and 0.71%, respectively, reflecting recent adjustments related to the OpenClaw concept and associated risk warnings from the National Internet Emergency Center [5][7]. Bond Market - The government bond futures market experienced slight adjustments, with the 30-year main contract TL2606 closing at 111.250 yuan, down 0.19%. The 10-year main contract T2606 closed at 108.260 yuan, down 0.04%, with a trading volume of 647.29 billion yuan, indicating active market trading but cautious sentiment [11]. - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 14 billion yuan, with short-term funding rates slightly rising. The overnight Shibor increased by 4.9 basis points to 1.367%, while the 7-day Shibor rose by 2.8 basis points to 1.460% [11]. Commodity Market - The South China commodity index rose to 3077.03 points, up 0.79%. Following a significant pullback in the energy sector, the market displayed clear sector rotation, with shipping and chemical products emerging as new leaders. The shipping index surged by 7.15%, while various commodities like caustic soda and PVC saw substantial increases [9][15]. - In contrast, crude oil and lithium carbonate led the declines, with crude oil futures dropping by 9.61% to 662.0 yuan per barrel. The International Energy Agency proposed releasing over 182 million barrels of oil to mitigate price spikes caused by geopolitical tensions, which is expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices [15][9]. Investment Opportunities - Recent hot sectors include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, robotics, and consumer goods, all of which are supported by government policies and technological advancements. The focus remains on the transformation of application scenarios and the progress of domestic projects [13][16]. - The market is advised to monitor the developments in the Middle East, as ongoing geopolitical tensions may influence market sentiment and sector performance [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The shipping derivatives market, especially the container shipping European line (EC) market, has experienced a significant decline. The core logic is the rapid retreat of geopolitical risk premiums. Trump's statements about the approaching end of the Iran war, cancellation of some oil sanctions to stabilize oil prices, and the indication that the war won't end this week have led to market sentiment fluctuations and profit - taking. The previous rise in the market was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts and airlines' fare increase announcements. The market may remain volatile and weak in the short term, and investors should focus on actual supply - demand and shipping data [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **China Export Container Freight Rates**: The current values and changes of various container freight rate indices are provided. For example, the SCFI - US West index is 1121 with a 11.71% increase, SCFIS - US West is 2717 with a 0.93% increase, SCFI - US East is 1452 with a 4.47% increase, SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1489 with a 7.27% increase, the CCFI comprehensive index is 1054 with a 0.97% increase, and the SCFI comprehensive index is 1940 with a 2.25% increase. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1545 with a 5.60% increase, and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2360 with a 2.39% increase [1][2]. Market Logic - The EC market on the container shipping European line was significantly affected by Trump's speech. The core is the rapid retreat of geopolitical risk premiums. The previous rise was due to geopolitical conflicts and airlines' fare increase announcements. Future focus should be on the actual progress of the Iran situation, the recovery rhythm of the Strait of Hormuz navigation, and the implementation effect of airlines' fare increases in mid - March. Also, be vigilant about the indirect impact of energy price fluctuations on global export demand [4]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and observe, and investors can pay attention to the 4 - 5 spread arbitrage [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the near - term contract EC2604, as it approaches delivery, the volatility is expected to be magnified due to the game between shipping companies' price - holding expectations under high geopolitical risks and the actual prices under weak off - season cargo volume. It is recommended that investors closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly [6][7]. - For the relatively peak - season contracts in June, July, and August, the current expectations are strong. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of 2026, relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and relatively high year - on - year growth in the demand side of Asia - Europe trade. However, the actual freight rates in the future are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [8]. - The strategy suggests no unilateral operation for now and recommends a long EC2606 and short EC2610 arbitrage [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 10, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 59,241.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 91,438.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2604 is 1848.90, EC2605 is 1908.00, EC2606 is 2170.00, EC2607 is 2277.70, EC2608 is 2157.60, EC2609 is 1587.10, EC2610 is 1459.20, and EC2512 is 1782.90 [9]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On March 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1452 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1940 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2717 US dollars/FEU. On March 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1545.46 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1121.22 points [9]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships have been delivered in 2026, with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU. Among them, 6 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 86,000 TEU, and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU has been delivered, with a capacity of 17,148 TEU. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [4][5]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 4 weeks of March is 320,700 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 11, 12, 13, and 14 are 362,300, 341,900, 293,100, and 285,400 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April is 324,900 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 15, 16, 17, and 18 are 361,400, 239,900, 404,500, and 294,000 TEU respectively. There were 8 blank sailings in March (3 by the OA Alliance, 1 by the Gemini Alliance, and 4 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 1 TBN (by the OA Alliance). There are 2 TBNs in April [5]. 3.4 Supply Chain - After the Israel - Iran conflict, shipping companies tried to hold prices in the off - season. Maersk set the price for the second week of the second half of March at 2200 - 2300 US dollars/FEU (equivalent to 1600 - 1700 points in SCFIS), and MSC's online quote for the second half of March is 2740 US dollars/FEU (100 US dollars/FEU higher than the first half). YML updated its price for the first week of the second half of March to 2700 US dollars/FEU. CMA announced an emergency fuel surcharge (EFS) of about 150 US dollars/TEU (equivalent to about 200 points on the futures market) for European routes starting from March 23. Two large ships were transferred from the Middle East route to the Asia - Europe route, increasing the supply - side pressure and potentially affecting European line freight rates. Maersk's quote for the last week of the second half of March is 2200 - 2300 US dollars/FEU, the same as the previous week [6]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of Asia - Europe trade is relatively high, with the container trade volume in most months having a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. After the Israel - Iran conflict, new expectations have emerged for peak - season contracts. It is necessary to pay attention to whether developed countries in Europe and the United States will increase imports due to concerns about future inflation, which could drive up China's export demand. At the same time, it is also necessary to guard against the expectation of a global economic recession caused by a large increase in oil prices [8].