Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFI continues to rebound, and the positive signals from China - US consultations meet the daily report's rebound expectations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The easing signal of China - US trade boosts market sentiment, and the freight rates announced by each company at the beginning of November support the market, resulting in a strong - side oscillating market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Changes - On October 24, SCFIS (European route) was 1140.38 points, up 10.5% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 863.46 points, up 0.1% from the previous period. NCFI (composite index) was 977.21 points, up 2.17% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 1293.75 points, up 3.13% from the previous period [3]. - On October 24, SCFI was 1403.46 points, up 93.14 points from the previous period. SCFI European line price was 1246 USD/TEU, up 8.8% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 2153 USD/FEU, up 11.2% from the previous period. CCFI (composite index) was 992.74 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1293.12 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 736.23 points, up 1.5% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMM preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and operation activities accelerated [4]. - In the US, the September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (August final value was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (August final value was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (August final value was 54.6) [4]. 3.3 Contract Information - On October 24, the main contract 2512 closed at 1831.0, with a gain of 3.14%, a trading volume of 35,100 lots, and an open interest of 30,200 lots, an increase of 1335 lots from the previous day [5]. - The price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6].

截至2025年10月27日 13:52，恒生港股通高股息率指数上涨0.74%，成分股中国宏桥上涨3.25%，中信股份上涨3.10%，东方海外国际上涨2.96%，信义玻璃上 涨2.73%，北京控股上涨2.22%。港股红利ETF博时(513690)上涨0.72%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报1.12元。拉长时间看，截至2025年10月24日，港股红利ETF博 时近1周累计上涨2.40%。 流动性方面，港股红利ETF博时盘中换手1.78%，成交1.05亿元。拉长时间看，截至10月24日，港股红利ETF博时近1周日均成交2.53亿元。 近期，港股红利板块表现活跃，从10月9日至10月24日，恒生港股通高股息低波动指数涨幅超6%，而同期恒生指数下跌2.49%。业内人士表示，红利指数逆 势上扬背后，主要是外部环境有所波动，投资者"去风险"下对投资组合进行再平衡。 专家分析指出，不同低波"固收+"基金的策略差异，主要体现在"+"的部分。红利低波策略通过高股息资产提供稳定现金流，并严格控制回撤，既能有效平滑 组合波动，又在低利率环境中提供具有竞争力的风险调整后收益，是当前市场环境下性价比较高的配置方向。 机构认为，四季度策略上，在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Strait Shipping Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price decline of 2.15% on October 27, with a current price of 13.20 CNY per share, despite a year-to-date increase of 102.76% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.721 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47.30% to 126 million CNY [2] - Cumulatively, the company has distributed 1.740 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 448 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Stock Market Activity - As of October 20, the number of shareholders increased by 76.36% to 97,000, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 43.30% to 23,035 shares [2] - The stock has appeared on the daily trading leaderboard four times this year, with the most recent instance on October 22, where it recorded a net buy of -61.2852 million CNY [1] Business Segments - The company's main business segments include: Hainan routes (72.21%), Yandao routes (10.48%), Xisha routes (6.17%), port services (5.40%), and other routes (3.72%) [2] - The company operates within the transportation sector, specifically in shipping and port services, and is associated with concepts such as Hainan Free Trade Zone and central enterprise reform [2]

Core Insights - The forum titled "2025 Third Women's Shipping Forum" was successfully held in Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Ride the Wind and Break the Waves: Cross-Border Coexistence" to discuss the high-quality development of the shipping industry and the career growth of women [1][3] Group 1: Importance of Women in Shipping - The forum highlighted the critical role of women in driving innovation within the shipping industry, particularly in the context of digital supply chains, green transformation, and technological innovation [3][4] - Shanghai's transportation officials acknowledged the unique strengths of women, such as resilience and empathy, as essential for advancing the industry's digital and green transitions [3][4] Group 2: Keynote Speeches and Discussions - Notable female leaders in the maritime field shared their experiences, emphasizing the importance of women's contributions to the industry, including overcoming gender barriers [4][5] - The forum featured discussions on the integration of technology, capital, and female leadership to foster inclusive growth in the shipping sector [5][6] Group 3: Industry Practices and Innovations - Presentations included insights on digital development in global port services and the impact of the Internet of Things on reshaping logistics [5][6] - The role of standards and certification systems in promoting low-carbon transitions in shipping was also emphasized [5][6] Group 4: Collaborative Opportunities - The forum facilitated discussions on how women's power can further engage in global shipping governance and cross-industry collaboration [6] - The event served as a platform to showcase women's professional capabilities and leadership in the maritime sector, contributing to a more inclusive and high-quality shipping ecosystem [6]

消息面上，据媒体报道，德翔海运将于11月退出与SeaLead Shipping和高丽海运（KMTC）共同运营的 美西航线AWC，这也意味着德翔海运。据悉，德翔海运目前业务范围涉及亚太市场、跨太市场及亚欧 市场。截至2025年6月30日，德翔海运共运营49条航线。 智通财经APP获悉，德翔海运(02510)再涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.94%，报9.13港元，成交额3222.8万港 元。 据航运界报道，德翔海运是近期新晋参与者中较晚撤出美西航线的班轮公司。随着美线前景黯淡，跨联 盟合作趋势逐渐增加。Alphaliner指出，"美线货运需求的疲软以及现货运价的下跌，正促使全球船队部 署发生重大调整。"未来，跨联盟舱位共享可能会变得更为普遍。 （原标题：港股异动 | 德翔海运(02510)再涨超5% 美线前景黯淡 公司不再经营跨太平洋航线） ...

目前，"南京—雅加达"集装箱外贸航线计划每两周一班，直航模式带来显著的时效提升。"我们从南 京港直航到印尼雅加达港，全程仅需四五天，相比以往从上海中转，可以节省3—4天时间，极大降低 外贸企业的物流成本。"江苏远洋船务部经理谢俊杰介绍。 南京港在长江经济带发展和"一带一路"建设中发挥着重要枢纽作用，而东南亚国家是南京重要的外 贸市场和经济合作伙伴。南京港龙潭集装箱有限公司总经理段昌尉表示："南京港已拥有直达马来西亚 巴生港、泰国林查班港等多条东南亚直航航线。直航线路以其时效快、费用低、班期稳的优势，已成为 南京腹地及周边企业出口至东南亚的首选物流模式。此次直航印尼雅加达线路的开通，有利于长三角地 区外贸企业更好拓展东南亚业务市场，为南京建设港口型国家物流枢纽、提升区域性航运物流中心势能 再添新动力。" 10月25日下午，江苏远洋"江远远瑞轮"从南京港龙潭集装箱有限公司集装箱码头鸣笛启航，满载货 物驶向印尼雅加达港，标志着"南京—雅加达"集装箱外贸直航航线正式开通。 此艘首航船舶装载了白色家电、日用消费品、电动叉车等货物，货源地以江苏、安徽、浙江为主， 货值超过3000万元。 为助力"南京—雅加达"新航线顺利开 ...

Group 1 - The eighth Oil Merchants Conference was held in Zhoushan, Zhejiang from October 21 to 23, focusing on "Deepening Open Cooperation to Build a Green, Low-Carbon, and Sustainable Bulk Commodity Market" with 366 domestic and international companies participating [1] - Keynote speeches were delivered by representatives from renowned international companies such as Saudi Aramco, Vitol Group, BP, Honeywell, and S&P Global, discussing industry trends and opportunities in the Chinese market [1] - Representatives from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation and China Merchants Energy Shipping provided insights into the latest developments in the oil and gas and shipping sectors, aiding Chinese companies in expanding internationally and foreign companies entering the domestic market [1] Group 2 - The China (Zhejiang) Free Trade Zone Bulk Commodity Resource Allocation Hub Full Industry Chain Alliance was officially launched, with Chen Xin, Chairman of Material Zhongda Group, serving as the first president [2] - The alliance consists of over a hundred leading bulk commodity enterprises, industry associations, research institutions, and financial institutions, aiming to create a collaborative development system covering the entire industry chain of bulk commodities [2] - The initiative focuses on efficient integration of information, logistics, finance, and other resources, promoting the construction of a bulk commodity resource allocation hub in Zhejiang [2] Group 3 - A special meeting on "Financial Innovation and Spot-Futures Linkage" was held during the conference, where a report on the path to building an international bulk commodity trading center was released [3] - The Zhejiang International Bulk Commodity Trading Center signed cooperation agreements with industry partners, and several significant projects were signed during the conference, totaling approximately 64.36 billion yuan [3] - The establishment of the China Green Ship Repair International Certification Innovation Alliance and the unveiling of the International Bulk Commodity College at Zhejiang Ocean University also took place, alongside the release of the "Green Ship Fuel Development Zhoushan Declaration (2025)" [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of China-US trade negotiations, which may benefit the shipping sector. It highlights the upward potential of infrastructure stocks and the recovery potential of the express delivery industry [1][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Shipping - The report notes a positive atmosphere in the shipping industry due to ongoing China-US trade negotiations, which may favor container shipping. The report indicates that freight rates for the US East and West routes have seen increases of 6.3% and 11.2% respectively [11][12]. - It highlights the potential for increased market share for Chinese shipowners in relevant shipping routes in the medium to long term [17]. 2. Infrastructure - Weekly data shows a significant increase in truck traffic, with 58.12 million vehicles recorded, a 24.7% increase week-on-week. National railway freight volume also increased by 2.3% [18][19]. - The report suggests that leading highway stocks are showing signs of recovery, and it recommends focusing on the potential for dividend stocks in the infrastructure sector [20]. 3. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a recovery in pricing, with a 12.7% year-on-year increase in business volume in September, totaling 16.88 billion packages. The report notes that major express companies are seeing a trend of rising prices [21][22]. - The report highlights the impact of "anti-involution" policies that are easing price competition and improving valuations in the industry [22]. 4. Aviation - The report indicates a 5% year-on-year increase in passenger volume in the civil aviation sector, with domestic ticket prices also showing improvement. The average daily utilization of aircraft has increased by 1.3% year-on-year [23][24]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "anti-involution" policies and their effects on industry valuations and supply-demand dynamics [24]. 5. Logistics - The report tracks the daily traffic at the Ganqimaodu port, which averaged about 1,031 vehicles, reflecting an 8% increase week-on-week. The average short-haul freight rate has also risen [25][81]. - It notes a 6.9% week-on-week increase in the Shanghai outbound air freight price index, indicating a recovery in logistics pricing [25][86].

Group 1: Industrial Sector - Industrial product futures prices increased, with the South China industrial product index rising by 2.8%[2] - Steel and building materials production and apparent demand improved, with cement clinker capacity utilization rising[2] - Polyester and weaving industry operating rates showed marginal recovery, while automotive tire production rates rebounded[2] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 21.0% year-on-year, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous week[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.92% in the last four weeks as of October 13[2] - New home sales in October showed a year-on-year decline of 23.4%, a drop from the previous month[2] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Retail sales of automobiles decreased by 6% year-on-year from October 1-19, with a preliminary estimate of a 2.6% decline for the month[2] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 17.0% year-on-year, a drop of 13.4 percentage points from the previous value[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 2.3% year-on-year, while the Baidu migration index rose by 11.5%[2] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 0.9% year-on-year as of October 19, while container throughput rose by 4.3%[2] - The China export container freight index increased by 2.0% week-on-week, with Shanghai and Ningbo export container prices continuing to rise[2] - South Korea's export value increased by 9.7% year-on-year for the first 20 working days of October, although the growth rate declined from September[2] Group 5: Price Trends - Futures prices for coking coal rose by 5.9%, with spot prices in Shanxi increasing by 5.0%[2] - Rebar futures closed up by 0.3%, with spot prices rising by 0.1%[2] - The overall industrial product price performance showed a positive trend, with various indices reflecting increases in key materials[2]

沪指 10 年新高，金银大跌，周期怎么看？20251026 摘要 TikTok 电商增速预计达 30%，极兔前三季度件量增速超 65%，拉美电 商渗透率仅 15%，潜力巨大，中国电商积极布局。嘉友蒙煤市场价维持 高位，非洲业务利润贡献显著，预计三四季度利润逐季改善。 航空公司受益于票价和客座率改善，以及飞机交付受限和替换周期，油 价下降和汇率升值也构成利好。推荐关注华夏航空、东航、南航、国航 等标的。 快递行业估值具吸引力，圆通和申通明年 PE 或为 9 倍和 8~9 倍，反内 卷趋势持续，推荐关注圆通和申通。 几内亚西芒杜铁矿投产将显著改善散货供需关系，运距较长导致 Capesize 船存在缺口，中美贸易谈判等事件性因素也可能催化干散货 行情，推荐招商轮船和海通发展。 六氟磷酸锂价格大幅上涨，接近翻倍，吨毛利显著改善，行业开工率提 升，库存下降，需求拉动明显，电解液价格亦上涨，看好六氟磷酸锂和 电解液盈利修复，推荐新宙邦。 Q&A 近期沪指创十年新高，周期板块的表现如何？ 上证指数直逼 4,000 点，进入牛市状态。交运板块沿着几条主线展开分析。首 先是出海业务，推荐极兔和嘉友两只股票。极兔在东南亚快递市场 ...