1月15日，A股三大指数今日涨跌不一。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.33%报4112点，深证成指涨0.41%，创业板指涨0.56%。 全市场成交额2.94万亿元，较前一交易日缩量1.05万亿元，超3100股下跌。 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 4112.60 | -13.49 | -0.33% | | 000001 | wing wow | | | | | 创业板指 | | 3367.92 | +18.78 | +0.56% | | 399006 | Aria Mon | | | | | 深证成指 | am NY | 14306.73 | +58.13 | +0.41% | | 1000000 | | | | | 盘面上，AI应用板块大回撤，智谱AI、Sora概念、Kimi概念及AIGC概念等方向领跌；商业航天、卫星互联网板块下挫，AI制药、医药商业板块 走低，国资云概念、空间站概念及文化传媒等板块跌幅居前。另外，电子化学品板块走高，贵金属板块持续走强，光刻机（胶）板块活跃。 | 代码 | 名称 | 股新价 ...

1月15日，贸易摩擦、地缘冲突释放缓和信号，避险资金回流，金价震荡下跌后小幅回升。截至A股收 盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4608美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.57%，黄金股ETF(159562) 涨0.87%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨1.27%。 消息面上，经过美国商务部的调查，特朗普在周三发布的总统公告中表示，将暂缓对关键矿产进口征收 关税，他将转而寻求通过与外国谈判达成协议，"以确保美国拥有充足的关键矿产供应，并尽快降低供 应链的脆弱性"。 花旗表示，目前贵金属市场处于前所未有的高价趋势中，全球地缘政治局势持续恶化与特朗普政府带来 的全球经济前景与货币价值不确定性，以及实物黄金、白银短缺，加之美联储独立性遭遇威胁，共同为 贵金属价格提供重要支撑。 ...

今日市场震荡分化，沪指一度失守4100点，最终小幅收跌，创业板指顽强翻红。资金高低切换明显，商 业航天、AI应用等题材回调。市场全天成交2.9万亿，较上个交易日缩量超万亿，两市下跌个股超3100 只。 值得注意的是，尾盘宽基ETF持续放量，中证500ETF(510500)成交超263亿，创历史天量，沪深300ETF 华泰柏瑞(510300)成交超250亿，创2024年10月9日以来天量，科创50ETF易方达(588080)、上证 50ETF(510050)、沪深300ETF易方达(510310)、沪深300ETF华夏(510330)、沪深300ETF(159919)成交额 均较昨日实现翻倍增长。 据券商中国，虽然市场走势偏弱，但不乏亮点。梳理发现，市场释放出三大信号：一是在高位题材股退 潮的同时，有色板块表现非常强势，结构性机会依然存在；二是在股市调整过程当中，国债市场并未表 现得过于兴奋，显示风险偏好并未全速退潮；三是从成交来看，亦有明显缩量，市场狂热似告一段落。 那么，后续市场如何演绎？ 有A股"吹哨人"之称的大摩发表报告称，沪深北交易所发布通知调整融资保证金比例，将投资者融资买 入证券时的融资保证金最低 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4112.60 points, down by 0.33% and a total transaction volume of 11,759.15 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.41% to 14,306.73 points with a transaction volume of 17,295.81 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index increased by 0.56% to 3,367.92 points, with a transaction volume of 8,412.62 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included precious metals, electronic chemicals, and agricultural chemicals, with respective gains of 3.35%, 3.32%, and 2.44% [2] - The internet e-commerce, pharmaceutical commerce, and IT services sectors experienced the largest declines, with losses of 4.51%, 3.66%, and 3.52% respectively [2] Transaction Data - The electronic chemicals sector had a total transaction volume of 1,477.21 million hands and a total transaction amount of 411.60 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 36.62 billion yuan [2] - The agricultural chemicals sector recorded a transaction volume of 2,005.85 million hands and a transaction amount of 278.07 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 26.74 billion yuan [2] - In contrast, the internet e-commerce sector had a transaction volume of 707.57 million hands and a transaction amount of 100.41 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 12.91 billion yuan [2]

盘面上，AI应用板块大回撤，智谱AI、Sora概念、Kimi概念及AIGC概念等方向领跌，天龙集团、博瑞 传播等多股跌停；商业航天、卫星互联网板块下挫，航天电子、中国卫通等多股跌停；AI制药、医药 商业板块走低，贝瑞基因、岩山科技等多股跌停；国资云概念、空间站概念及文化传媒等板块跌幅居 前。另外，电子化学品板块走高，上海新阳涨超16%；贵金属板块持续走强，四川黄金涨停；光刻机 （胶）板块活跃，东材科技等多股涨停；中芯概念、磷化工、电池及旅游酒店等板块涨幅居前。(格隆 汇) （原标题：A股收评：缩量逾1万亿！三大指数涨跌不一，AI应用、商业航天跌幅居前） A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，截至收盘，沪指跌0.33%报4112点，深证成指涨0.41%，创业板指涨 0.56%。全市场成交额2.94万亿元，较前一交易日缩量1.05万亿元，超3100股下跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global asset landscape is undergoing a historic transformation as silver prices have surpassed $90 per ounce for the first time, elevating its market capitalization to $5.039 trillion, making it the second-largest asset globally, following gold [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The surge in silver's market value is attributed to a dual resonance of its financial and industrial properties. Financially, expectations of global liquidity easing and heightened risk aversion are driving investment into precious metals. Geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S.-Iran and U.S.-Venezuela situations, further enhance silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - On the industrial side, there is a significant demand gap for silver, driven by its essential role in emerging industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers. Projections indicate that global photovoltaic installations will exceed 600 GW by 2026, leading to a silver paste demand of 8,900 tons. Additionally, the silver consumption in electric vehicles is expected to surpass 3,600 tons annually, and AI servers will require three times more silver than traditional servers, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 26% in the AI sector [3]. Supply Constraints - The supply side is tightening, with global silver shortages persisting for five consecutive years. The anticipated shortfall is expected to widen to 6,300 tons by 2026, while independent silver mines account for only 28% of production. Low capital expenditure and aging mines have led to stagnation in supply growth, with visible inventories at major exchanges dropping to a ten-year low, resulting in a consumption-to-inventory ratio of only 0.68 [3]. Market Sentiment - The market's enthusiasm for silver is reflected in the significant inflows into the largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, which recently increased its holdings by 39.47 tons, reaching a historical high of 16,347.95 tons. This indicates strong institutional confidence in long-term allocations [4]. - In the futures market, speculative sentiment is high, with the main silver futures contract's open interest rising to 344,700 lots. However, measures have been implemented to cool the market, including raising margin requirements and limiting intraday positions [4]. Diverging Views - There is a clear divide in market sentiment regarding whether to chase the rising silver prices. The bullish camp believes in the continuation of the strong trend, supported by the long-term supply-demand gap and macroeconomic benefits. Institutions like BNP Paribas and Morgan Stanley have set price targets of $100 per ounce, citing ongoing geopolitical risks and physical shortages as key support factors [4]. - Conversely, the bearish camp warns of potential high-level corrections. JPMorgan has predicted an average silver price of $40.2 per ounce in 2026, citing factors such as index weight adjustments leading to $7 billion in sell orders and the potential for profit-taking due to cooling measures. Other firms, like TD Securities, have established short positions betting on a drop to $40 [5]. Short-Term Outlook - Despite differing opinions, most institutions agree that silver is likely to experience a short-term correction in Q1 2026. Factors such as index adjustments and a low probability of Fed rate cuts could lead to a rebound in the dollar, suppressing precious metal prices. The expected correction range is between $55 and $60 per ounce, with a potential decline of 20-30% [6]. - Key variables influencing silver's future include inventory changes at major exchanges and monthly data on global photovoltaic installations, which reflect the tightness of the physical market and industrial demand resilience. Additionally, the direction of U.S. monetary policy and tariffs on key minerals will play a crucial role in shaping silver's financial attributes [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market adjustment reflects the emotional volatility of investors, particularly in the AI and commercial aerospace sectors, where many stocks experienced declines exceeding 10% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The adjustment was triggered by regulatory measures that increased the margin requirements for financing, signaling a cooling of the market, particularly affecting short-term speculative funds [3]. - A significant reduction in market trading volume, with a decrease of over 350 billion yuan compared to the previous day, indicates a decline in active participation in popular sectors [3]. - Funds have started to flow out of high-flying sectors, with some moving into commodities like precious metals and energy metals, which are supported by commodity prices or defensive attributes [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors holding heavy positions in AI and commercial aerospace should avoid panic selling and instead observe for potential technical rebounds in leading stocks before making adjustments to their portfolios [4]. - The current market adjustment presents an opportunity to identify stocks with solid fundamentals, as those lacking support may struggle, while companies with core technologies and performance potential may offer better long-term investment points [4]. - Attention should be paid to new trends in fund flows, particularly in precious and energy metals, as this may indicate a phase of high-low switching in search of new breakout opportunities [4].

各位投资者朋友，下午好。今天A股市场的走势，生动演绎了什么叫做"一半是海水，一半是火焰"。在 持续放量后，市场迎来了预期之内的震荡，但震荡中板块间的撕裂程度，却远超寻常。 截至午盘收盘，上证指数下跌0.60%，报4101.52点；深成指跌0.44%，创业板指跌1.02%。一个关键数据 揭示了市场的微妙变化：两市半日成交额1.9万亿元，较昨日同期显著缩量超过3400亿元。在相对高位 出现"缩量回调"，这本身就值得我们提高警惕。 然而，指数的波澜不惊之下，是板块间波涛汹涌的结构性巨变。今天盘面的核心特征，是一场从"未来 叙事"向"当下价格"的急速风格轮动。 站在舞台中央接受追捧的，是久违的资源周期板块。贵金属板块一马当先，四川黄金涨停，板块内个股 跟涨踊跃。这背后的驱动力清晰可见：国际现货白银、黄金价格正接连创出历史新高。当资产价格本身 在创造历史，股票市场的映射反应几乎是必然的。与此同时，能源金属板块紧随其后，罗平锌电涨停， 核心催化剂是碳酸锂价格的暴力反弹——短短半月，工业级碳酸锂基准价涨幅超过36%。 而跌落神坛的，则是前期风头无两的科技成长先锋。商业航天、AI应用概念遭遇重挫，多股跌超10%， 甚至出现2 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.60%, Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.44%, ChiNext Index down by 1.02%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index down by 2.02% as of the midday close [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.8953 trillion yuan, with Liou Co., Ltd. leading the A-share market with a transaction volume of 15.488 billion yuan [2] Sector Performance - The precious metals sector showed strong performance, with Sichuan Gold hitting the daily limit [4] - The chemical sector experienced fluctuations, with Qicai Chemical hitting the daily limit and then briefly opening before closing again at the limit, achieving two "20cm" daily limits [4] - The tourism and travel sector was active, with Zhongxin Tourism achieving two consecutive daily limits [7][8] - The intelligent driving concept saw initial activity, with Shenglu Communication exhibiting a "ground-to-sky" performance [4] Intelligent Driving Sector - The intelligent driving sector was notably active, with companies like Weidi Co., Ltd. and Tangyuan Electric achieving daily limits, and Suling Co., Ltd. seeing a rise of over 5% [4] - Shenglu Communication had a trading volume of 3.025 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 27.34% [5] - A recent action plan from Shanghai's Economic and Information Commission aims for large-scale implementation of high-level autonomous driving scenarios by 2027, establishing a competitive smart connected vehicle industry cluster [5] Tourism Sector Insights - The tourism sector showed significant activity, with Zhongxin Tourism and Shaanxi Tourism both hitting daily limits, and other companies like Dalian Shengya and Xi'an Tourism also showing notable gains [8][9] - Data from the travel industry indicates that domestic flight bookings for the upcoming Spring Festival have exceeded 3 million, with a 20% increase in daily bookings compared to the previous year [9] - Qunar reported a 63% increase in flight bookings for the 2026 Spring Festival compared to 2025, with popular destinations including Sanya, Dali, and Haikou [10] - Wanlian Securities suggests that the tourism market is expected to improve due to the nine-day holiday period and recommends focusing on travel-related companies benefiting from policy catalysts and consumer confidence recovery [10]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is at a critical turning point influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply shortages, with specific forecasts for various commodities through 2026 [1][20]. Oil Market - The short-term oil market is driven by geopolitical premiums, with a price target of $70 per barrel for Brent crude, influenced by tensions in Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as export disruptions in Kazakhstan and Libya [3][6]. - However, the long-term outlook is bearish due to expected supply surplus and policy pressures, particularly from the U.S. government aiming for lower oil prices [6][20]. Precious Metals - In the precious metals sector, silver is expected to outperform gold, with target prices set at $100 per ounce for silver and $5,000 for gold, driven by current market momentum and capital flows [7][20]. - The report suggests that these high price levels may trigger hedging actions from producers and central banks [7]. Base Metals - Aluminum is identified as having the most structural opportunity, facing a significant supply deficit, with short-term price targets of $3,400 per ton and mid-term targets of $3,500 [8][20]. - In contrast, copper is forecasted to reach $14,000 per ton, but the confidence in this projection has weakened significantly since December, with a warning that January may be the peak for the year [11][20]. Lithium Market - The lithium market has seen a rebound of over 50%, primarily due to supply constraints from delays in mining operations and tightening policies [12][14]. - Citigroup has raised the three-month price target for lithium carbonate to $25,000 per ton, reflecting strong demand from battery manufacturers [13][20]. - Despite the short-term strength, there is a cautious long-term outlook for lithium prices, anticipating downward pressure as supply increases [14]. Natural Gas and Agriculture - The natural gas market is expected to face long-term supply surplus challenges, with bearish views on LNG and European TTF gas prices starting from 2027 [15][20]. - In agriculture, a bullish outlook is maintained for most commodities, with sugar prices expected to rebound in 2026 due to increased demand from China and changes in Brazilian production [19][20].