最近，彭博社放出了一则关键消息，说中国现在持有的美国国债创18年来最低，已经降到了2008年以来 的最低水平，具体数值跌到了7590亿美元左右。不仅如此，还说有内部消息透露，中国国家层面已经明 确要求，各家银行还要继续抛售美国国债，不恋战、不犹豫，抛得越多、越及时越好。而抛售美债换来 的资金，没有闲置，全部用来购买黄金，开启"抛美债、囤黄金"的模式。 大家可以看看最新的黄金价格，截至2月10号，伦敦金现货价格已经突破了5040美元每盎司的关口，国 内金店的黄金价格，都涨到了1560元每克左右，涨幅特别明显。 这背后，就是中国持续增持黄金的推动，咱们国家连续13个月一直在增持黄金，就是要通过这种方式， 对冲美债带来的风险，保住咱们的外汇资产安全。 可能有人会问，中国为啥要拼尽全力抛售美债？答案很简单，因为美国的债务问题，已经严重到快要失 控的地步了，而这一点，就有人发出过警告。 前几天，全球知名投资大佬达利欧，在自己的社交账号上发文，发出了一个重磅警告。他说，美国现在 正处于"债务大周期"中，而且已经走到了"现有秩序崩溃"的第六阶段边缘，再往前一步，就是万劫不 复。 这个第六阶段是什么意思呢？达利欧认为，一个国 ...

Asset Overview - In January, global risk assets experienced increased volatility due to changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and geopolitical conflicts, with US stocks showing a strong upward trend [1] - The domestic market saw a return of funds, with equity assets continuing the upward trend from the end of last year, although regulatory measures led to a slowdown in growth [1] - The Wind All A index rose by 5.83% for the month, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices increasing by 12.12% and 8.68% respectively [1] - 80% of the Shenwan first-level industries saw gains, with strong performances in non-ferrous metals (+22.59%) and oil and petrochemicals (+16.31%) [1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 6.85% in January, with a net inflow of 61.7 billion HKD from southbound funds [1] Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a downward adjustment followed by recovery, with most yield rates declining [2] - The 10-year government bond yield fell by 3.6 basis points to 1.81% during January [2] Commodity Market Review - The commodity market was generally bullish in January, with precious metals leading the gains; London gold prices rose by 13.01% to $4,880 per ounce [3] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 14.64% to $69.83 per barrel, while copper prices also saw gains [3] Macroeconomic Performance - The macroeconomic data for December indicated resilience in production, supported by external demand, while internal demand remained weak [5] - Industrial enterprises' profit margins showed positive growth for several months, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in industrial value added [5] - Exports continued to exceed expectations, with a 6.6% year-on-year increase in December, driven by strong performance in machinery and high-tech products [6] Policy Outlook - Local government meetings have emphasized a "steady progress" approach, with an average GDP growth target of 5.0% for 2026 [10] - The focus of macroeconomic policy has shifted towards enhancing the quality of internal growth rather than merely expanding scale [10] Asset Allocation Analysis - The current economic environment is characterized by "strong supply, weak demand, and price stabilization," indicating an early recovery phase [24] - The asset performance ranking is expected to be bonds, stocks > commodities in the current phase [24]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 美东时间2月9日，全球资产价格出现显著波动，美元指数大幅走弱带动风险资产及贵金属价格上行。当 日美元指数大跌0.84%，跌破97关口，美股三大指数低开高走，道指再创历史新高，贵金属板块全线走 高。 美股收盘数据显示，道指收涨0.04%，标普500指数收涨0.47%，纳指收涨0.90%。大型科技股多数走 强，其中甲骨文涨幅超9%，微软、博通、AMD涨幅均超3%，英伟达、Meta涨超2%，特斯拉涨超1%。 贵金属市场中，COMEX黄金期货涨超2%，COMEX白银期货大涨8%。 针对美元大幅走弱，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，已经观察到市场对美元信心出现质疑的迹象。美 联储理事米兰则指出，当前美元下跌幅度尚未对货币政策产生实质性影响，其对消费者通胀的影响也较 为有限。米兰此前曾提及，美国经济未出现强劲价格压力，美联储2026年需要降息超过100个基点，期 待沃什担任美联储主席后的政策走向。 美国财政部长贝森特此前针对美联储缩表议题表态称，即便沃什出任美联储主席，美联储也不会迅速启 动缩表行动，预计 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 10 日 金属价格强势突破，有色板块景气 持续 看好 ——有色金属行业 2025Q4 业绩前瞻 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 有色金属 - ⚫ 贵金属： 1 月美联储议息会议维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 3.50%-3.75%，鲍威尔表示通胀的上行风险 和就业的下行风险都已减弱；没有太多数据表明外国投资者正在对其美元资产进行大规模对冲。特朗普 30 日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需 ...

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing increased activity as the Spring Festival approaches, with spot gold prices stabilizing around the $5000 mark, and related stocks in the A-share and Hong Kong markets rising [1] - On February 9, spot gold prices reached a daily high of $5047.257 per ounce, surpassing the critical $5000 level, leading to a rise in several precious metal stocks such as Laopu Gold and Yuguang Gold Lead [1] - Major banks are tightening their gold business operations by raising the entry thresholds and upgrading risk assessment levels, signaling a cautious investment approach [1] Group 2 - The consumer market is promoting gold products such as zodiac-themed gold ornaments and investment gold bars, with younger consumers showing interest in small-weight zodiac pendants and woven gold bead bracelets [2] - The "old for new" model is becoming a popular choice among consumers, and it is advised to distinguish between "per gram pricing" and "fixed price" gold jewelry, with a preference for transactions through physical stores or authorized online platforms to avoid scams [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [5] Core Views - Geopolitical and policy factors are influencing the oil price, which shows a strong upward trend. The negotiation between Iran and the US on the nuclear issue is in progress, and the Fed's interest - rate stance affects market expectations. The global grain consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase, and the domestic futures market has mixed performance [1]. - Precious metals are in a rebound phase. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. Silver's high volatility suggests investors to wait and see. Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations and supply changes in Kazakhstan. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase due to supply and demand factors [2][3]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to continue the phased upward trend in February, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival. The bond market is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and domestic economic data, and the bond price is expected to stabilize [10][11]. - In the energy and chemical market, the supply and demand of various products such as crude oil, methanol, and rubber are affected by different factors, and their prices show different trends. In the metal market, precious metals, copper, zinc, aluminum, and lithium carbonate have different price trends and influencing factors. In the black market, the supply and demand of steel, iron ore, and coking coal are affected by the approaching Spring Festival and other factors. In the agricultural product market, the prices of protein meal, oil, sugar, cotton, and pork are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies. In the shipping market, the container shipping European line is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival and will face verification after the festival [13][19][25][28][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - Elon Musk said that SpaceX has shifted its focus to building a "self - developing" city on the moon, which is expected to be achieved in less than 10 years. The plan to build a city on Mars will start in 5 - 7 years and is expected to take more than 20 years [6]. Domestic News - On the morning of February 9, President Xi Jinping inspected the National Information Technology Application Innovation Park in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological self - reliance in building a modern socialist country [7]. Industry News - Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security conducted administrative guidance on 16 platform companies to protect the rights and interests of new - form workers [8]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose. The US dollar index fell. ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, LME aluminum, LME copper, and LME nickel all rose, while LME zinc fell. CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, and CBOT corn fell, while CBOT soybean oil rose [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, and the domestic stock index rebounded. In February, the market is expected to continue the upward trend, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival [10]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations keep the money market loose. The Fed's policy and domestic economic data affect the bond market, and it is recommended to operate cautiously before the Spring Festival [11][12]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session price rose. The negotiation between Iran and the US is in progress, and Kazakhstan's oil export may decline [13]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night - session price fell. The domestic coal - to - olefin device's operating rate increased, and the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased slightly [14]. - **Natural Rubber**: The natural rubber price rebounded. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand supports the stable operation of all - steel tires. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [15]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin futures fell slightly. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro - factors [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly, and soda ash futures mainly fell. The supply and demand of glass and soda ash are gradually being repaired, and the market focuses on the real - estate and photovoltaic industries [17]. Metal - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continued to rebound. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [19]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the copper price may enter an adjustment phase [20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [21]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose at night. The domestic aluminum price is high, but the downstream demand is weak before the Spring Festival. However, long - term factors support the price [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after the volatility decreases [23][24]. Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were weak at night. The demand for coking coal and coke is limited, but the downstream's pre - festival replenishment provides support [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply decreased slightly, and the demand weakened. The inventory increased, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipping and arrival increased, and the port inventory increased. The steel mill's replenishment is coming to an end, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fell at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is in progress, and the domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, which may put pressure on the price [28]. - **Oil**: The oil prices were weak at night. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the inventory is expected to decline, but the crude oil price affects the palm oil price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [29]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar price was slightly stronger at night. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated within a range. The textile factory's replenishment is coming to an end, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the direct subsidy policy [31]. - **Pork**: The pork price fell. The supply pressure increased, and the demand could not fully digest it. The pig price is expected to be weakly stable [32]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping European Line**: The EC price fell. The spot freight rate is relatively stable before the Spring Festival, and it is expected to be volatile. After the Spring Festival, it will face the verification of the photovoltaic export rush and the implementation of the price increase letter [33][34].

2025年初贵金属市场经历"断崖式暴跌"，芝加哥商业交易所突然上调保证金比例，特朗普提名鹰派人物执掌美联储，双重压力抽干市场流动性。 美国财长 贝森特却将锅甩给"中国交易员无序投机"。 但对比道琼斯指数冲破5万点被称"价值投资"，黄金上涨却被指"投机"，暴露了双重标准。 更深层的原因在于， 黄金涨势本质是全球资本对美元信用投出的"不信任票"。 而中国金库里2300吨实实在在的黄金，成了最硬的底气。 第二，上海黄金交易所香港国际板仓库启用，香港机场金库从200吨扩容到2000吨，打造出从交易到交割的完整链路。 第三，以低于市价20-50美元/盎司的 价格收购俄罗斯黄金，既帮俄方变现，又用折扣价夯实储备。 伊朗、委内瑞拉等被美元边缘化的国家，也开始探索"黄金换货币"的路径。 美国一边指责中国金融行为，一边不得不承认稀土供应中断导致高端制造业停摆。 特朗普访华前急着重启贸易谈判，寻求稀土合作。 这种"嘴上骂得凶，私 底下求和"的矛盾，暴露了美国产业链空心化的短板。 与此同时，沙特原油交易提升人民币结算比例，巴西推动央行对接人民币清算机制。 去美元化不是口 号，而是各国在贸易、储备、结算层面的真实行动。 西方依然掌握 ...

2月9日，全球大宗商品市场多个品类迎来上行行情，国际油价回升，现货金价重返5000美元/盎司上 方，工业金属价格同步走高。 国际油价方面，受美国建议悬挂其国旗的船只在霍尔木兹海峡航行时远离伊朗水域影响，此前美伊核谈 判期间下降的风险溢价重新回升，推动油价上涨。3月交割的布伦特原油期货上涨0.99美元，收于每桶 69.04美元；3月交割的西得州中质原油期货价格上涨0.81美元，收于每桶64.36美元。 受大宗商品价格上行带动，当日A股及港股贵金属个股同步走高，老铺黄金涨超6.35%、紫金矿业涨超 5%，有色金属股也跟随上涨。面对金价高位震荡，多家国有大行及股份制银行通过上调黄金业务准入 门槛、升级风险测评等级等方式，引导普通投资者理性参与黄金投资。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 现货黄金市场在经历1月末的闪崩后再度走强，2月9日现货黄金日内最高触及5072.257美元/盎司，重回 5000美元/盎司关键关口。纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨2.01%报5064.10美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货涨2.04% 报5081.50美元/盎司。支撑金价上 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant drop in international gold prices, which fell sharply after nearing a historical high of $5,600, resulting in the evaporation of trillions of dollars in market value within hours [1][4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant blamed China for the market turmoil, claiming that disorderly trading by Chinese investors disrupted the global precious metals market [8][10] - The article suggests that the extreme volatility in gold and silver prices is not merely a market reaction but rather a politically motivated intervention by the U.S. to maintain dollar hegemony [10][12] Group 2 - Data from the World Gold Council indicates that global central banks have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, with China's central bank increasing its reserves to over 2,300 tons [14][34] - The article highlights a broader trend of countries repatriating gold reserves, with nations like Germany and Poland also participating in this "gold repatriation movement" [25] - The narrative emphasizes that the U.S. is losing its absolute pricing power over gold, as evidenced by the need for administrative measures to stabilize the market [12][36] Group 3 - The article posits that the current financial landscape is characterized by a separation of pricing power and ownership, where the prices set by Wall Street are increasingly disconnected from the physical assets held by global central banks [36][41] - It argues that the ongoing volatility in gold prices serves as a warning signal about the weakening of the once-mythologized dollar system, indicating a shift towards a new financial order based on tangible assets [39][43] - The conclusion suggests that the rise in gold prices reflects a growing distrust in the dollar's credibility, with a new financial order centered around physical assets rapidly taking shape [43]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF, Huabao (159876), has shown fluctuations, with a morning high of 0.79% but currently down by 0.35% [1]. Market Performance - The current trading price of Huabao ETF is 1.131, with a decrease of 0.35% (-0.004) from the previous close [2]. - The ETF opened at 1.137, reached a high of 1.144, and a low of 1.127 during the trading session [2]. - The total trading volume is 342,500, with a turnover rate of 1.72% [2]. Sector Performance - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector include Shenghe Resources and Bowei Alloys, which rose over 2%, while Zhongfu Industrial and Xiamen Tungsten also saw gains exceeding 1% [2][3]. - The macroeconomic outlook suggests potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may influence commodity prices [3]. Industry Trends - Prices for rare earth products are accelerating, with significant increases in praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices, which rose by 7.59% and 6.27% respectively [4]. - The demand for rare earth materials is shifting from just-in-time purchasing to stockpiling, supporting higher prices [4]. - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to experience a resource supercycle, with prices for metals like gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and rare earths anticipated to rise [4]. Investment Opportunities - The Huabao ETF provides comprehensive exposure to various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, making it an efficient tool for investors looking to capitalize on the non-ferrous metal sector [5].