Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a strong performance on May 6, with nearly 5000 stocks rising, and certain concepts such as controllable nuclear fusion and rare earth permanent magnets surging. The market's trading volume increased to 1.36 trillion yuan. The market sentiment was positive, but it still faced challenges from external factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision and international trade policies [7]. - Different sectors of commodities presented various trends. For example, most chemical products' prices increased on May 7 compared to May 6, while some agricultural products had mixed price movements. Each commodity had its own supply - demand relationship and influencing factors [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - China and the US will conduct economic and trade talks. Vice - Premier He Lifeng will meet with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during his visit to Switzerland [7]. - The A - share market had a good start after the "May Day" holiday. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.84%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.97%, and the Northbound 50 Index rose 3.21%. The market trading volume reached 1.36 trillion yuan [7]. - China will adopt more proactive macro - policies and is confident in achieving the 5% growth target in 2025. It will continue to build a unified domestic market and expand high - level opening - up [7]. - Apple AI may launch some functions in the Chinese mainland in the iOS 18.6 system, with Baidu Wenxin Yiyan as the core cloud intelligent engine and Alibaba providing the review mechanism. Also, Apple may change the iPhone release pattern from 2026 [7]. - Xiaomi is accelerating the development of self - developed SoC chips, with a team of about 1000 employees operating independently. The new - generation chip's performance is comparable to Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen2 [8]. - The Fed is facing a dilemma, and there are hints that it may postpone interest - rate cuts. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in May, and is more concerned about Fed Chairman Powell's policy stance [8]. - The EU will formulate counter - measures against US tariffs on EU products, with an expected impact on 549 billion euros of EU exports to the US. If negotiations fail, the EU plans to impose tariffs on 100 billion euros of US goods [8]. - In the Japan - US tariff negotiations, the US refuses to cancel the 10% benchmark tariff and the additional 14% tariff on Japan, putting Japan in a difficult situation [8]. - The UK and India signed a free - trade agreement, which is expected to increase bilateral trade by 25.5 billion pounds annually in the long run [9]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is stable, with oil mills' demand providing some support. There is sufficient supply, and the market is in the stage of speculating on planting area, with few topics for speculation [13]. - **Oils and Fats**: According to MPOB monthly report forecasts, Malaysia's palm oil inventory, production, and exports in April 2025 are expected to increase. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast is raised. The domestic market is expected to follow the external market's trend after the holiday, but the upside is limited [13]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is suppressed by Brazil's good start of the sugar - crushing season and India's strong production forecast, while the domestic market has a good de - stocking rhythm. Traders are advised to go long with a light position near 5860 yuan, and add positions if the price breaks through 5910 yuan [13]. - **Corn**: The market is in a tug - of - war. Port inventories are high, suppressing price increases, but state purchases and reduced imports are improving market expectations. Short - term trading is recommended in the 2340 - 2390 yuan range [13]. - **Hogs**: The national hog price is stable. Group farms are holding back supplies, and there is a game between supply and demand. The terminal consumption is weak, and the futures market's main contract has shifted. Short - term operations are recommended [13][15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is weakening. The inventory in production areas is increasing, and the southern sales areas are facing pressure. There are opportunities for short - selling on the futures market [15]. 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is rising. The daily production is high, and the inventory of upstream enterprises is accumulating. With the approaching of summer fertilizer demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. The market is volatile and strengthening, and caution is advised for unilateral operations [15]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply of caustic soda is still in excess, although there are some new - capacity releases and demand changes. The price lacks upward momentum, and the 2509 contract may continue to trade at a low level [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market at ports is weakening after the holiday, and the second - round price increase of coke is on hold. The prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure, but may stabilize after the government's meeting [15]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum may continue to trade at a low level due to uncertainties in US tariff negotiations and the US economic downturn. Copper is relatively stronger due to support from the mining end [17]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is increasing. Although there are short - term production cuts, the supply is still excessive in the medium term. A bearish view is recommended for the medium - term [17]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased during the holiday. The market may get a short - term boost from the government's financial policies, but overall, they will trade in a low - level range [17]. - **Silicon Ferroalloys**: The prices of silicon ferroalloys are falling. Steel mills are expected to start new rounds of procurement with a price - cutting attitude. The prices of silicon ferroalloys may trade at a low level in the short term [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate is falling, with a bearish supply - demand situation. The cost support is weakening, and short positions are recommended to be held, but beware of a rebound [18]. 2.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Indexes**: The A - share market had a good start on May 6. The market sentiment is positive, and there are opportunities for low - buying and combination arbitrage strategies [18][19]. - **Stock Index Options**: The A - share market rose on May 6, and the options market showed different trends in terms of volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors are advised to defend, and volatility investors can buy straddles after the volatility decline [19].

Group 1 - As of April 28, 215 A-share companies have been newly held by social security funds in Q1 2023, with some companies having over 10% of their circulating shares held by these funds [1][2][3] - Notable companies include Andar Intelligent, which has 265.16 million shares held by the National Social Security Fund 103 portfolio, accounting for 12.15% of its circulating shares [1][3] - Industries such as metal smelting, chemical products, and communications are currently favored by social security fund portfolios, with companies like Baosteel, Cangge Mining, and Yiwei Lithium Energy being newly held [1][2][3] Group 2 - The National Social Security Fund 114 portfolio holds 158 million shares of Baosteel, with a market value of 1.14 billion yuan, making it the largest holding among newly acquired A-shares [2][8] - Cangge Mining and Yiwei Lithium Energy also show significant performance, with net profits of 447 million yuan (up 41.19%) and 1.1 billion yuan (up 3.32%) respectively in Q1 [2][8] - Other companies with strong Q1 performance include Baosteel, Cangge Mining, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, which are currently favored by social security funds [2][3] Group 3 - The QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) also shows a diverse portfolio, with significant holdings in companies like Zijin Mining and Tonghuashun, indicating a broader industry focus compared to social security funds [9][10] - QFII has increased its holdings in various sectors, including finance and pharmaceuticals, while social security funds focus more on blue-chip and cyclical stocks [9][10] - The performance of different sectors in Q2 shows that public utilities, beauty care, agriculture, banking, and retail have seen increases, while basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and steel have declined [10]

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：央行 MLF 操作，黄金强势依旧 中美没有就关税问题磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。据新华网，有记者问：近 来美方不断有消息称，中美之间正在谈判，甚至将会达成协议。你能否证实双方 有没有开始谈判？外交部发言人郭嘉昆说，这些都是假消息。"据我了解，中美 双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"特朗普考虑对华 关税分级方案。央视网援引《华尔街日报》报道，美方高级官员透露，特朗普政 府正考虑多种方案。中国央行 25 日将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，将实现净投放 5000 亿。本月有 1000 亿元 MLF 到期，在 4 月 25 日进行 6000 亿元 MLF 操作后， 将实现净投放 5000 亿元。3 月央行超量续作 MLF，实现净投放 630 亿元，是 2024 年 7 月以来 MLF 首次净投放，展现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、集运指数 原油：SC 上涨 1%。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产 量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。 他还表 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜库存203425吨，减少1825吨。铝库存425600吨，减少6100吨。镍库存 203850吨，减少402吨。锌库存182300吨，减少2725吨。铅库存277875吨，增加800吨。锡库存2810吨， 减少20吨。 ...

橡胶： 周三 ru 走势企稳。国内产区气候较好，割胶较少，泰国逐步开割。青岛地区总库存回落，美关税政策影响短期反 复，预计仍将延续，关税政策本质上对原料端不利，中长期终端消费的变化路径仍存在不确定性，近期关注贸易政策是否 改善，预计天胶走势短期震荡。 贵金属 ：黄金价格回落，昨夜出现下探反弹。美国财长贝森特昨夜演讲表示中美达成贸易协议需 2-3 年。周二美国总统特 朗普释放缓和信号，一方面是表示尽管他对美联储未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一 方面称对华关税将"大幅下降 " 。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。中国央行等部门表态支持上海黄金交易所等与境外交易所开展产品授权合作，扩大人民币基准价格在国际主流市 场应用。随着贸易战扰动加剧，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美国债务等问题愈发 凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。面对未来通胀上行压力，鲍威尔也未对降息松口，但长 端美债价格的波动，令市场对美联储重启 QE 和提前降息的预期升温。考虑今年美国债务压力进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for 2024 but achieved significant growth in net profit, indicating a shift towards higher profitability despite lower sales figures [3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 60.95 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.15 billion, an increase of 24% [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 17.84 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 19%, with net profit reaching 1.25 billion, up 139.7% [3]. Group 2: Metal Sector Performance - Nickel product shipments (including internal supply) reached 184,000 tons in 2024, a 46% increase, primarily due to the ramp-up of the 120,000-ton nickel hydrometallurgy project in Indonesia [4]. - The gross profit from nickel products and intermediates accounted for 52% of the company's total gross profit [4]. - Cobalt product shipments were 47,000 tons, a 13% increase, while copper product sales reached 90,000 tons, up 2.8% [4]. - The Arcadia lithium mine project in Zimbabwe achieved lithium concentrate shipments of approximately 400,000 tons, a 41% increase [4]. Group 3: Lithium Battery Materials - In 2024, lithium battery precursor shipments exceeded 120,000 tons, while cathode material shipments surpassed 90,000 tons, as the company reduced low-margin product shipments to optimize product structure [5]. - Sodium battery precursor shipments exceeded 300 tons, making the company the first in the industry to achieve ton-level exports [5]. Group 4: Nickel Sector Developments - The company has increased nickel ore resource reserves through investments in Indonesian mines and has successfully ramped up production at various nickel hydrometallurgy projects [6]. - The total shipment of nickel intermediates reached nearly 230,000 tons, a 50% increase [6]. - Collaborative projects with Vale Indonesia and Ford for nickel production are progressing as planned [6]. Group 5: International Expansion in Lithium Battery Materials - In Indonesia, the company has initiated trial production of a 50,000-ton nickel sulfate project and is nearing completion of a 50,000-ton ternary precursor project [7]. - In South Korea, a collaboration with LG for a 66,000-ton cathode material project has partially reached production, achieving significant shipments [7]. - In Hungary, the first phase of a cathode material project is progressing smoothly [7].

2025年4月15日 研究所晨会观点精萃 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021- ...

伦敦金属交易所(LME)：镍库存减少120吨，锌库存减少2050吨，铅库存增加9900吨，铜库存减少950 吨，铝库存减少2075吨，锡库存减少50吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to be weak. The refined nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and there are many macro - negative factors, which will suppress the nickel price. The frequent adjustment of Indonesia's nickel industry policy and the withdrawal of long - position funds also increase market volatility [1]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak. The supply side is relatively loose, the demand side recovers slowly, and the raw material support for stainless - steel prices is limited. Under macro - negative factors, the non - ferrous metals as a whole are under heavy pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Market Data**: - On April 8, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai nickel futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the closing price of the futures near - month contract was 119,280 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 261,743 hands (+457), and the open interest was 80,225 hands (-4,462). The LME 3 - month nickel closing price (electronic disk) was 14,150 US dollars/ton, down 214 US dollars from the previous day [1]. - The basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the closing price of the active Shanghai nickel contract was 2,470 yuan, down 1,490 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Supply - side Situation**: - Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports changed little, and port inventories were stable. In some major production areas in Indonesia, production was adjusted, with reduced production scheduling and a downward - adjustment expectation for metal volume. Domestic smelters continued to make losses, and production slightly recovered after seasonal maintenance [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: - Ternary production scheduling decreased, stainless - steel mills' production scheduling was stable and improving, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: - On April 7, the LME nickel inventory was 202,300 tons, up 1,908 tons from the previous day, with an increase rate of 0.95%. The SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 205 tons from the previous trading day. The social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable [1]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: - On April 8, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai stainless - steel futures contracts showed a downward trend. The trading volume of the active contract was 187,931 hands (-23,316), and the open interest was 72,550 hands (-14,393). The basis between the average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) and the active contract decreased by 40 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Supply - side Situation**: - Stainless - steel production scheduling decreased slightly [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: - Terminal demand was gradually recovering [1]. - **Cost - side Situation**: - The price of high - nickel pig iron declined, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: - The SHFE inventory increased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 705,800 tons, down 6,300 tons [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to China's counter - measures, causing significant concerns in the market. The global economy faces a greater risk of recession, and the market anticipates further monetary policy easing. Tariffs are significantly beneficial for Treasury bond futures, while stock index futures may face pressure. Different commodities are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with varying trends and investment strategies [5][6][9]. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts rose by 1.43%, 0.51%, 0.38%, and 0.15% respectively [5]. - **Policy Impact**: China will impose an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US starting from April 10, 2025. Future monetary and fiscal policies have room for adjustment, and measures will be taken to boost domestic consumption and stabilize the capital market [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Tariffs are favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current low Treasury bond yields and the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, caution is advised. It is expected that the volatility will increase [6][7][8]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures declined slightly. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000股指期货主力 contracts changed by - 0.49%, 0.10%, - 0.78%, and - 1.10% respectively [9]. - **Impact Factors**: Tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, and the global recession risk increases, putting pressure on stock index futures. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and policy hedging space, there is no need to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. It is advisable to wait for short - term opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract rose by 0.74%, and the silver主力 contract fell by 1.37% [11]. - **Impact Factors**: After the tariff implementation, precious metals first rose and then fell, possibly due to passive selling caused by global financial market liquidity shocks. The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and it is expected to continue its upward trend after the shock [11][12]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities or buy long - term call options after the market stabilizes [12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. During the Ching Ming Festival, international financial market fluctuations may drag down domestic black - series products [14]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The real - estate industry's downward trend persists, and weak demand and increasing rebar production suppress prices. However, the peak demand season is approaching, and macro - policies may support prices. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the downward space may be limited [14]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. During the holiday, international market fluctuations may affect domestic black - series products [16][17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: High iron - water production supports iron ore demand. Although the supply has increased recently, the port inventory has decreased. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high in the black - series products [17]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures were weak. During the holiday, international market fluctuations may affect domestic black - series products [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The coking - coal market sentiment has improved slightly, and the coke fundamentals are showing signs of improvement. However, the medium - term weakness has not changed [19]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract fell by 0.45%, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose by 0.13% [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of ferroalloys is slightly higher than demand. The steel demand season is coming, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to pick up. However, the high inventory and potential supply disturbances in manganese ore need attention [22][23]. - **Strategy**: In the low - price range, consider long - position opportunities for deep - out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon. For silicon iron, short - position holders can consider exiting at the bottom range [23]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell due to the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs [24]. - **Market Data**: Fund managers increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + will increase oil supply in May [25]. - **Outlook**: The crude oil price depends on the development of trade frictions. It is expected that the price will be supported at around $60, and OPEC may take measures to support the price [26]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the crude - oil主力 contract [27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market was weak in early April [28]. - **Outlook**: High - sulfur fuel oil may face supply shortages, but the implementation of US tariffs will harm the global shipping market, which is negative for fuel oil [29]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the fuel - oil主力 contract [30]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic - rubber主力 contract fell by 4.04%. The US tariff has a negative impact on the cost and demand expectations, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The butadiene price is falling, and the production capacity utilization rate has declined. The demand for tires is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the inventory has decreased [31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural - rubber主力 contract fell by 3.18%, and the 20 - rubber主力 contract fell by 3.73%. The US tariff has a triple - path impact on the natural - rubber market, and the price lacks upward momentum in the short term [33]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The opening of the rubber - tapping season in some areas is delayed, and the demand for tires is weak. The inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year but is accumulating month - on - month [33][34]. - **Outlook**: There may be a technical rebound after the price drops excessively. The long - term trend depends on global trade policies and industrial chain reconstruction [33]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract fell by 0.04%. The US tariff has limited impact on PVC imports and exports, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate between weak reality and policy expectations [36]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The production capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, and the demand from downstream enterprises is weak. The export depends on low prices, and the inventory has increased [36][37]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [38]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract fell by 0.42%. The urea market is mainly in a weak adjustment state, and the price lacks upward momentum under the loose supply - demand pattern [39]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The daily production of urea is expected to remain around 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand is in a lull, and the industrial demand is under pressure. The inventory has decreased [39]. - **Outlook**: The market may oscillate before the start of the summer fertilizer demand. Attention should be paid to factors such as northeast replenishment demand, export policy changes, and extreme weather [39]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2505主力 contract fell by 2.27%. Recently, more PX plants have been under maintenance, and the load has decreased. The downstream PTA startup has increased, but the cost support has collapsed due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices [41]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX is expected to follow the cost - end weakness. It is advisable to wait and see carefully, paying attention to changes in crude oil prices and supply [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2505主力 contract fell by 2%. The supply of PTA has increased slightly, and the demand from the polyester industry has risen. However, the PTA processing fee has decreased, and the crude oil price has dropped significantly [42]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PTA is not significant, but there is a risk of a sharp price correction. It is advisable to participate carefully and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol主力 contract fell by 1.4%. The overall production capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The downstream polyester startup has risen, but the terminal demand is weak [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the ethylene - glycol price is expected to be under pressure. It is advisable to operate carefully and pay attention to changes in port inventory and upstream - downstream plants [43][44]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2505主力 contract fell by 2.38%. The supply of short - fiber is at a relatively high level, and the demand from downstream terminals is limited. The cost support is insufficient [45]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - fiber will follow the cost - end movement. Pay attention to risk control due to significant fluctuations [45]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chips 2505主力 contract fell by 1.18%. The raw - material cost support is limited, the supply has increased, and the demand for downstream soft drinks is gradually recovering [46]. - **Outlook**: The bottle - chips market is expected to follow the cost - end weakness. Pay attention to changes in raw - material prices [46]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soda - ash 2505主力 contract fell by 0.29%. The soda - ash production has adjusted at a high level, and the inventory has increased. The downstream demand is weak, and the price is stable and weak [47]. - **Outlook**: The market is still dominated by demand in the short term, and the price is subject to oscillation due to maintenance news [47]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the glass 2505主力 contract fell by 2.44%. The number of production lines has been at a low level, and the overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The price has a certain upward momentum due to valuation repair and cost support, but the actual supply - demand drive is not obvious [48]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to continuously monitor the inventory - reduction speed [48]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the caustic - soda 2505主力 contract fell by 0.71%. The production of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the demand is limited. The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to oscillate [50]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the pulp 2505主力 contract fell by 1.91%. Some pulp mills have carried out maintenance, and the inventory has increased slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by the futures price decline [51][53]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillate [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium - carbonate主力 contract fell by 1%. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to be weak [54]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fell significantly due to US tariffs. The spot - market trading was stable, and the premium increased [55]. - **Outlook**: With the escalation of the trade war, copper prices are difficult to remain stable. In the short term, it is not recommended to participate in the market or only participate with a light position [55]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the Shanghai - copper主力 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin fell by 2.02%. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the short - term impact of macro - events has intensified. The supply shortage in the ore end still exists, and the price is expected to be supported [56]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, pay attention to risk control and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel price fell by 1.55%. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to US tariffs. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak, and the market is expected to remain at a low level in the short term [57]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to risk control [57]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the industrial - silicon主力 contract rose by 0.20%, and the polysilicon主力 contract fell by 0.02%. The industrial - silicon market is oversupplied, and the price is weak. The polysilicon market is relatively stable, and the price is expected to remain stable [58][59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main - contract rose by 1.60%, and the soybean - oil main - contract fell by 1.18%. The US - China trade friction has intensified, and the US soybean main - contract fell on Friday [60]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal is accumulating, while the inventory of soybean oil is decreasing. The consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly [60]. - **Strategy**: After the short - term extreme market reaction, the market will return to fundamentals. Long - position holders can consider taking profits on rallies. If there is still an upward trend on the second trading day, consider virtual - value put options [61][62]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has fallen, pressured by the decline in CBOT soybean oil and crude oil prices. The global demand is weak due to economic concerns, and the Malaysian palm - oil inventory is expected to rise for the first time in six months [63]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing [64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed has fallen, and the domestic market has been affected by tariff policies. The impact on rapeseed meal is greater than that on rapeseed oil. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has decreased [65][66]. - **Strategy**: Consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed spread [66]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: During the holiday, the outer - market cotton fell by about 2.3% due to US tariff policies. The domestic cotton supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is weakening [67][68]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the outer - market supply - demand is loose, and the domestic demand has reached a phased peak. The "reciprocal tariff" has a great impact on demand, and the global economic decline has led to trade shrinkage [68]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: During the holiday, the outer - market raw sugar fell by more than 3% due to the decline in global risk assets. The domestic and foreign sugar production and inventory situations are different. The short - term decline in global risk assets will drag down sugar prices [69][70]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see [70][71]. Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The cancellation of a delivery warehouse is beneficial, and the consumption is better than expected. The inventory is low, and the price is expected to be strong [72][73]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities after price corrections [74]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average pig price is oscillating. The demand support is insufficient, and the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term. The 4 - month planned slaughter volume of group farms has a limited increase, and the consumption is entering the