智能和意识的差异是对谈的另一个关键话题。智能是追求目标和解决问题的能力,意识则是感受事物的 能力。目前,人工智能在某些领域比人类更具智能,如围棋比赛,但它没有情感和意识。生活中真正重要的 是意识和情感,而非单纯的智能。人工智能没有道德观念,不能将伦理问题交予它们,人类需保持对其的掌 控。 在就业市场,人工智能带来了机遇和挑战。一方面,它在医疗保健领域有巨大潜力,能创造数百万随时待 命、掌握全部医疗文献和患者病史的人工智能医生。另一方面,它对就业产生威胁。很多人认为创造性 工作不会受影响,但事实并非如此。人工智能在处理信息和创造创意作品方面表现出色,在围棋领域已展 现出比人类更强的创造力。而洗碗这类工作,因需运动和社交技能,在复杂物理环境中交互,人工智能难以 胜任。 在人工智能时代,计算机间的现实将与人类创造的主体间现实共存。金融领域是人工智能的理想舞台,因 为它是纯粹的信息世界,人工智能能比人类更好地处理金融市场的海量信息,可能创造人类难以理解的新 型货币。不过,人类仍可掌控局面,避免像马无法理解人类货币那样,让人工智能掌控生活决策。 在人工智能深刻影响社会和人类的当下,历史学家尤瓦尔·赫拉利与作家、媒体人洪 ...

Market Performance - Emerging markets outperformed slightly last week, with MSCI Emerging Markets up by 1.9% compared to MSCI Developed Markets at 1.3% [3] - Among developed markets, the Nasdaq index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 2.2%, while the Nikkei 225 was the weakest, declining by 0.6% [3] - In the emerging markets, the South Korean Composite Index led with a 4.2% increase, while the Mexican MXX index lagged with a 0.4% rise [3] Trading Sentiment - Global stock market trading volumes generally weakened last week, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index trading volume decreasing to 171 billion shares and $588.7 billion [11] - In Hong Kong, short selling increased to 15.9%, indicating a low historical sentiment level, while the NAAIM manager index in the US decreased to 81.6%, suggesting a high historical sentiment level [11] Valuation Trends - Developed markets saw an overall valuation increase, with the latest PE and PB ratios at 22.7x and 3.6x, respectively, placing them in the 90% and 99% percentile levels since 2010 [17] - Emerging markets also experienced a valuation uplift, with PE and PB ratios at 15.2x and 1.9x, respectively, in the 75% and 86% percentile levels since 2010 [18] Sector Performance - In Hong Kong, the materials and healthcare sectors led with gains of 5.6% and 4.1%, while telecommunications and industrial sectors lagged with declines of 0.6% and 0.2% [9] - In the US, communication services and information technology sectors outperformed with increases of 3.2% and 3%, while consumer staples and utilities underperformed with declines of 1.6% and 1% [9] Fund Flows - There was a continuation of capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks, despite a slight tightening of macro liquidity globally [25] - Recent data indicated a net outflow of 5.2 billion HKD from Hong Kong stocks, with stable foreign capital experiencing a significant outflow of 21.8 billion HKD [27] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for global markets were mostly revised downwards last week, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from 2220 to 2219 [29] - In the US, the S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast remained unchanged at 263, while in Europe, the STOXX50's EPS forecast also held steady at 347 [30]

Group 1 - The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations of 126,000, but previous months' data was revised down by 95,000 jobs, with March's figures cut from 185,000 to 120,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, but this stability was due to a decrease of nearly 600,000 in the labor force, indicating a discrepancy between employer hiring intentions and household employment reports [3] - Average hourly wages increased by 0.4% in May, with a year-over-year rise of 3.9%, attributed to a tighter labor market rather than employer generosity, as full-time positions decreased by 620,000 [3][5] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector lost 8,000 jobs in May, signaling potential economic concerns, while the federal government cut 22,000 jobs, totaling nearly 60,000 cuts since January [5] - Some sectors, such as healthcare, added 62,000 jobs, and hospitality industries also saw growth, but the sustainability of these positions under economic pressure is questionable [5] - There was a notable decrease in both native-born and foreign-born workers, with 440,000 and 220,000 fewer workers respectively, highlighting the challenges in the job market [7] Group 3 - The overall employment data presents a façade of growth, but underlying issues suggest instability, with the labor market showing signs of weakening despite reported job increases [8]

尽管标普500指数（SPX）距历史新高仅一步之遥，但一直难以突破，上周五终于站上6000点这一关键心理关口。根据彭博 社汇编的数据，在上周五之前，该股票基准指数已经连续七个交易日的涨跌幅度都未超过0.6%，这是自去年12月以来最长 的一段平静期。 标普500指数已经连续七个交易日的波幅都未超过0.6% 那么，还有什么可担心的呢？ 随着周三将公布关键的通胀数据，而美联储在6月18日利率决策前进入静默期，基金经理们正在思考，在标普500指数从4月 低点飙升20%之后，什么因素才能推动该指数再创新高？ 财富联盟总裁兼董事总经理埃里克·迪顿（Eric Diton）表示："要让美国股市重回历史新高，我们必须消除不确定性，但在贸 易战的混乱局面得到解决之前，目前大多数推动因素都难以捉摸。"他所在的公司目前正在投资组合中采取对冲措施，以防 范抛售风险。 从美国5月就业增长放缓，到美国服务业和制造业活动低迷，近期经济数据走弱的情况不断累积。然而，市场却对此视而不 见，交易员们乐观地认为，特朗普关税政策可能会避免最坏的结果，因此预计下个月的风险较小。 Wealthspire Advisors的高级副总裁兼顾问奥利弗·珀舍（Ol ...

Employment Data - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, exceeding market expectations of 126,000, despite a downward revision of 95,000 in the previous two months[5] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.24% in April, up from 4.19% in March, marking a near three-year high[5] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% to 62.4%[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped significantly to 16.7% following the employment data release[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates steady in June and July, with potential cuts in September and either November or December[2] - Market expectations for policy rates have shifted closer to the Federal Reserve's stance rather than the White House's position[2] Sector Performance - Service sector employment rose from 132,000 to 145,000, indicating resilience in this area, while goods-producing jobs fell from an increase of 11,000 to a decrease of 5,000[5] - Average hourly earnings saw a month-on-month increase of 0.42%, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%[5] - Job openings to unemployed persons ratio remains at 1, below the 2019 level, indicating a balanced labor market[5]

Global Market Overview - The US stock market continued its rebound, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.5%, 2.18%, and 1.17% respectively [2][11] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rising by 2.16%, 2.34%, and 1.93% respectively [2][23] - The TAMAMA Technology Index has a P/E ratio of 32.2, indicating it remains in a high valuation zone above 30 [1][16] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio increased to 45.8, also indicating a high valuation above 45 [1][16] - The Nasdaq Index's P/E ratio is at 39.9, nearing the high zone of 40 [1][16] US Market Insights - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has risen to 36.91, significantly above historical averages [1][16] - The uncertainty in US economic policies and high valuations are putting pressure on sectors such as finance, consumer, communication services, and industrials [1][16] - Major individual stocks within growth and value sectors are experiencing notable daily corrections [1][16] European Market Insights - European markets have shown a rebound, but rapid valuation increases combined with weak economic fundamentals may lead to volatility in indices such as the FTSE 100, CAC40, DAX, and STOXX50 [1][2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is experiencing further differentiation, with previously overheated assets beginning to cool down [1][38] - There is an expectation of continued differentiation in the Hong Kong market, with potential for stage corrections in assets that have seen significant gains in the first half of the year [1][38] - Structural opportunities may exist in low-valuation assets with good fundamentals and minimal trade impact, as the market has not yet formed a comprehensive bull market [1][38] Emerging Markets Insights - Emerging markets such as Istanbul ISE100, India SENSEX30, and others are likely to experience volatility due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties [1][2]

周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，由于特朗普政府进口关税的不确定性，全美5月份的就业增长有所放 缓，但稳健的工资增长应能使经济扩张保持正轨，并可能使美联储推迟恢复降息。 利率市场仍预期美联储今年将降息2次。 数据公布后，美国总统特朗普再次施压美联储降息，然而市场定价显示，今年美联储的政策空间依然相 对有限。 非农数据暗藏隐患 在周三公布的ADP私营就业数据降至两年低位后，政府版的就业指标——非农就业报告依然表现稳定。 5月新增就业岗位13.9万个，好于市场预期的12.5万个。 分部门看，医疗部门贡献了6.2万个新工作岗位，休闲和酒店行业新雇佣了4.8万名员工，这两个行业创 造了上月近80%的职位。相比之下，制造业、零售业、政府的就业人数有所下降。 失业率连续第三个月稳定在4.2%，因为62.5万人退出劳动力市场，这表明对就业市场缺乏信心。调查显 示，消费者对在被解雇的情况下找到工作的前景不太乐观。小时工资大幅增长0.4%，超过了市场预 测，同比增长率为3.9%，略高于美联储的可持续通胀预期薪资增速3.7%。 值得注意的是，前两个月数据被大幅下修，这是贸易战酝酿并开始的阶段，可能显示作为经济基石的有 弹性的美国劳动 ...

Group 1 - President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, stating that the Fed's inaction on interest rates is a disaster, urging a 1% rate cut [1] - The U.S. labor market showed strong performance in May, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, exceeding Dow Jones' expectation of 125,000 but lower than the revised 147,000 in April [3] - Nearly half of the job growth in May came from the healthcare sector, which added 62,000 jobs, surpassing the average monthly growth of 44,000 over the past year [6] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, both above market expectations of 0.3% and 3.7% respectively [6] - The private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, significantly below the market forecast of 115,000 and marking the lowest level since early 2023 [6][9] - The strong employment data has led to a decrease in the likelihood of interest rate cuts, with the probability of three or more cuts dropping from 36% to 25% [9] Group 3 - The upcoming U.S. CPI data for May will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations that the Fed will maintain current rates in the next policy meeting [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and recovery of the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting its recent growth driven by earnings recovery and valuation improvements, particularly in the technology and healthcare sectors. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant gains this year, benefiting from a recovery in fundamentals [3][4] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a substantial decline in previous years, dropping to a low rating of 5.9 stars, with a peak decline of around 50% [7] - In 2023-2024, the Hong Kong stock market is gradually returning to growth, with the first quarter of 2025 marking the best earnings growth period in four years [8][9] Group 2: Earnings Growth - The earnings growth in Hong Kong stocks is primarily driven by technology and healthcare sectors, which have outperformed their A-share counterparts by 20-30% in short-term gains [16][21] - The earnings growth observed this year is largely a rebound from the previous years' low performance, indicating a cyclical nature of economic performance [13][15] Group 3: Valuation Insights - The article reiterates the fundamental formula for index investment: Index Net Value = Valuation * Earnings + Dividends, emphasizing that earnings growth is the engine driving index increases over time [5][6] - The technology and healthcare indices in Hong Kong have returned to normal valuation levels after recent increases, with the Hong Kong Technology Index rising from approximately 2800 points to around 3100 points [22][23] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Despite the positive performance, the article warns that the Hong Kong market experiences greater volatility in earnings and valuations, influenced by a high proportion of foreign and institutional investors [24][25] - Investors should be prepared for significant downturns during periods of earnings stagnation, as seen in 2021-2022, and should focus on undervalued investments while being mentally prepared for market fluctuations [26][28]

Core Insights - The healthcare sector continues to drive employment demand in the U.S., with an increase of 62,000 jobs in May, surpassing the year-over-year average increase of 44,000 jobs per month [1] - The leisure and hospitality industry added 48,000 jobs, significantly higher than the previous year's average of 20,000 jobs per month, possibly influenced by seasonal factors [1]