2024年，全市场上市公司实现增加值19.82万亿元，占GDP的14.69%，上市公司全员劳动生产率64.50万 元/人，是全社会数值的3.71倍。同时，全市场上市公司实现营业收入71.98万亿元，近六成公司实现营 收正增长...... 消费方面，各地以旧换新、国家补贴等政策陆续落地，有效激发终端消费活力。 新能源乘用车促进汽车零部件产业需求保持强劲，营收增长6.48%，净利润增长16.83%。家用电器营 收、净利润分别增长5.62%、7.11%，消费电子行业营收、净利润分别增长20.89%、12.78%。出行旅游 需求提振，旅游行业上市公司营收增长15.84%，交通运输、仓储和邮政业营收增长11.11%，净利润增 长21.45%。线上线下（300959）消费热情回升，食品饮料、个护、化妆品等行业营收实现正增长，其 中零食行业营收增长56.06%、净利润增长24.53%。物流行业五大快递公司营收增长11.69%、净利润增 长22.69%。 业绩韧性与行业亮点突出 报告显示，2024年，沪、深、北三家证券交易所5412家上市公司实现营业收入71.98万亿元，第四季度 营收同比增长1.46%，环比增长8.11%， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by power shortages and asset impairments, but it is expected to see a significant increase in copper production in 2025 [5][7] - The company reported a revenue of 145.53 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.81 billion yuan, up 4.05% year-on-year [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.90 billion, 3.39 billion, and 4.08 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14X, 12X, and 10X [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 137.45 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.81% [6] - The company plans to produce 194,900 tons of copper concentrate in 2025, a 26% increase year-on-year, and 1,896,000 tons of cathode copper, a 7% increase [7] - The company's gross profit for copper products is expected to be 5.39 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year, while sulfuric acid gross profit is projected to increase by 205% to 1.14 billion yuan [7] Key Financial Metrics - The company's total market capitalization is 40.56 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 33.37 billion yuan [3] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 49.48%, and the net asset value per share is 2.71 yuan [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.23 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.97% [6][8]

小金属：钨资源战略地位凸显，矿端偏强运行 钨作为国家战略性资源，其开采利用受国家指标控制、供应受限，随着全球地缘政治博弈加深，钨资源 的战略性地位将逐步凸显，矿端或维持强势运行。虽然短期需求端释放增量有限，但随着国内制造业的 复苏，以及出口端的修复，钨的供需错配或将延续，钨价或稳定增长。同时产业持续调结构升级，向高 端化迈进，钨下游刀具等领域具有较大国产化替代空间，有望推动行业内相关生产企业利润增长。 风险提示：下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 5月8日，美联储宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%至4.50%之间，符合市场预期，美联储已连续 三次维持利率不变。FOMC政策声明中增加了"通胀和失业率上升的风险增加"的描述，据芝商所数据， 市场对美联储重启降息的时点延后至7月。同时，随着中美经贸会谈开启，英美贸易协定落地，市场情 绪有所好转，美元指数和美股有所反弹，黄金价格承压。展望后市，特朗普政策的不确定性、全球贸易 格局和货币体系可能面临重塑、去美元化进程不断推进、央行对黄金的需求保持在高位等长期利多金价 因素依旧存在，且美联储仍有充足的降息空间，对金价形成有力支撑。受益标的： ...

[Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（5 月 5 日-5 月 9 日），有色板块本周上涨 1.99%，在全部一级行业 中排名中等。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中贵金属板块上涨 1.31%，工业金属板块上涨 0.88%，能源金属板块上涨 2.42%，金属新材料板块上 涨 5.46%，小金属板块上涨 4.74%。工业金属方面，周初市场依旧跟随上周五超预 期的美国大非农数据运行，工业金属价格整体有所上涨；5 月 8 日美联储 FOMC 会 议，鲍威尔在宣布利率维持不变的同时再次重申了联储对于后续数据的依赖性，美 元指数与美债利率短线走强，工业金属价格回落。贵金属方面，本周美国总统特朗 普宣布美英达成贸易协定；此外中美宣布将于瑞士展开首次贸易谈话。随着关税局 势的日益缓和，以及美国经济数据依旧维持韧性，黄金仍处于回调整固阶段，我们 预计随着关税对经济的影响逐步显现，金价仍有进一步上行潜力。 ◼ 周观点： 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 市场延续上周非农交易，美联储鹰派发言压 制工业金属上行空间 增持（维持） 2025 年 05 月 ...

有色金属 证券研究报告 供给端存收紧预期，氧化铝价格底部反弹 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 11 日 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/5/5-2025/5/9） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：铜价窄幅震荡，等待后续宏观催化。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +0.80%/+0.30%/-0.93%，沪铜在 7.7-7.8 万之间窄幅震荡，正如我们前期所判断的 美国关税造成的流动性冲击缓解后铜价迎来反弹修复，铜价波动率逐步下降 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：贸易进展可能有 限，黄金依旧长期看好 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有色金属 2025 年 05 月 11 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 贵金 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index, which has seen an increase of 8.15% over the past month but a decline of 2.93% over the last three months and a year-to-date decrease of 2.65% [2] - The CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index is composed of securities selected from the CSI Hong Kong 300 index based on industry classification, reflecting the overall performance of various thematic securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2][3] - The top ten holdings of the CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (29.31%), PetroChina Company Limited (12.47%), Zijin Mining Group (10.38%), China Shenhua Energy Company (10.05%), and Sinopec Limited (9.52%) [2] Group 2 - The market sectors represented in the CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index are entirely from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the oil and gas sector accounting for 51.69%, coal at 18.07%, precious metals at 15.59%, industrial metals at 9.95%, and rare metals at 3.15% [3] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year, and can also be adjusted temporarily under special circumstances [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4][6] Core Views - The company is the largest manufacturer of battery aluminum foil globally, with significant scale advantages, and is expected to see revenue and profit growth in the future [4] - The company has experienced a notable increase in overseas revenue, indicating a successful global expansion strategy [4][9] - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) has been adjusted downwards due to a decrease in aluminum foil processing fees, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 being 0.53, 0.64, and 0.77 RMB respectively [6][8] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 24,022 million RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.01%, but a net profit of 301 million RMB, down 43.70% [9][10] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6,456.62 million RMB, up 26.08% year-on-year, with a net profit of 85.27 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 179.93% [11] - The company’s aluminum foil product sales reached 816,100 tons in 2024, a 29.00% increase year-on-year, contributing to a revenue of 19,989 million RMB [9][10] - The overseas revenue for 2024 was 8,850 million RMB, marking a 55.35% increase, showcasing the company's effective global strategy [9][10] Valuation Metrics - The adjusted forecast for diluted EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.53, 0.64, and 0.77 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.4, 13.5, and 11.3 [6][8] - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 26,379 million RMB, with a growth rate of 9.8% [8][12] - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 1,424 million RMB, with a projected EBITDA margin improvement over the years [8][12]

Core Insights - The report from the China Listed Companies Association indicates that 5,412 listed companies have published their 2024 annual reports, with a total cash dividend amounting to nearly 2.4 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1][2] - In 2024, the total operating revenue of listed companies reached 71.98 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.46% in Q4 and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.11%, indicating a positive trend in company performance [1] - The net profit for listed companies in Q1 2025 was 1.49 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 89.71%, further solidifying the recovery trend [1] Company Performance - Nearly 60% of listed companies achieved positive revenue growth, showcasing an overall improvement in performance [1] - High-tech manufacturing companies saw a revenue increase of 6.66% in 2024, driven by policies promoting innovation and industrial upgrades [1] - The industrial metals sector experienced rapid growth, with revenue and net profit increasing by 6.92% and 29.22%, respectively [2] R&D and Innovation - Listed companies' total R&D investment reached 1.88 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of nearly 60 billion yuan from the previous year, accounting for 51.96% of the national R&D expenditure [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical and medical device sectors reported positive revenue growth, with the innovative drug sector's net profit increasing by 13.31% [2] Dividend and Share Buyback Trends - A total of 3,751 listed companies have announced or implemented cash dividend plans for 2024, with an average dividend payout ratio of 37.78% [2] - The number of companies implementing quarterly or semi-annual dividends increased significantly, with 1,013 companies participating [2] - In 2024, 1,564 new share buyback plans were announced, with a total proposed buyback amount of 227.4 billion yuan, and 14 companies planning to repurchase over 1 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Upstream Index (H300 Upstream) has shown a recent increase of 12.00% over the past month, despite a decline of 2.47% over the last three months and a year-to-date decrease of 2.19% [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The H300 Upstream Index reported a value of 2304.31 points [1]. - The index is based on the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Index, which selects securities according to industry classification to reflect the overall performance of various thematic securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the H300 Upstream Index are: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (29.2%) - PetroChina Company Limited (12.49%) - Zijin Mining Group (10.46%) - China Shenhua Energy Company (9.9%) - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (9.54%) - China Hongqiao Group (3.74%) - China Coal Energy Company (3.28%) - Zhaojin Mining Industry Company (3.26%) - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (2.64%) - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (2.41%) [2]. Group 3: Sector Composition - The H300 Upstream Index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3]. - The sector composition of the index includes: - Oil and Gas: 51.64% - Coal: 17.92% - Precious Metals: 15.77% - Industrial Metals: 10.00% - Rare Metals: 3.17% - Oil and Gas Extraction and Oilfield Services: 1.07% - Other Non-ferrous Metals and Alloys: 0.43% [3]. Group 4: Index Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year. Temporary adjustments may occur under special circumstances [3].