A股唯一不骗人指标：换手率大于15%，代表主力已进场 国庆后和炒股的老伙计们聚餐，三句话离不开"踩坑"：有人盯着K线图的"金叉"进场，结果套在半山 腰；有人听了"内部消息"追高，转头就吃跌停；还有人被各种花里胡哨的技术指标绕晕，买啥亏啥。咱 们散户炒股，最愁的就是看不清主力动向——主力偷偷进场时咱不敢买，等咱冲进去，人家早就跑路 了！但2025年的A股市场，有个指标越来越"实诚"，几乎没骗过散户，那就是换手率，尤其是当它突破 15%时，基本等于主力在"亮底牌"。 先搞懂：15%换手率，为啥是A股的"关键红线"？ 首先得说清楚，换手率到底是啥？其实特简单：就是当天买卖的股票数量，占这只股总流通股的比例， 直白讲就是"股票的热闹程度"。2025年11月上交所发布的《上证统计月报》显示，A股主板日均换手率 才1.03%-1.37%，科创板稍微活跃点，也才1.85%-2.30% 。也就是说，大部分股票每天也就1%-2%的筹 码在换手，冷冷清清的。 那15%的换手率意味着啥？相当于当天近五分之一的流通筹码全换了主人，交易热到发烫！证券业协会 2025年发布的市场交易报告里明确说，A股常态换手率在3%-8%之间，低于3% ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a surge in share buybacks, with 250 companies participating and repurchasing over 7 billion shares, totaling more than 162 billion HKD as of December 4 [1] - The technology and consumer discretionary sectors are leading in buyback activities, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF (159636) has undergone a share split, increasing its total shares from 26.439 billion to 52.878 billion, with a net asset value adjustment from 1.3842 HKD to 0.6921 HKD per share [1] Industry Summary - The latest data shows that the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF (159636) has a circulating scale of 36.597 billion HKD and an average daily trading volume exceeding 780 million HKD for the year [2] - The management and custody fees for the ETF are among the lowest in its category, at 0.45% and 0.07% respectively [2] - Market analysts from Zhongyin International express confidence in the long-term upward trend of the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting that current valuation levels remain attractive for investors [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened with a slight decline of 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a minor increase of 0.08% [1] - Notable performers in the Hong Kong stock market included Health Road, which rose over 3%, and several companies like SMIC and AAC Technologies, which increased by more than 2% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF (513860) experienced a 0.13% rise, with a trading volume of 13.68 million yuan and a real-time premium rate of 0.01% [1] Group 2 - A significant trend in the Hong Kong stock market has been a surge in share buybacks, with 250 companies participating and repurchasing over 7 billion shares for a total amount exceeding 162 billion HKD as of December 4 [2] - The technology and consumer discretionary sectors have been the most active in terms of buybacks, driven by factors such as reasonable blue-chip valuations and companies holding ample cash [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's upcoming revision of the "treasury stock new regulations" in June 2024 will allow companies to repurchase shares without canceling them, thus lowering operational barriers for buybacks [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF (513860) closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index, which includes 50 large-cap technology companies with high R&D investment and rapid revenue growth [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include major players like Alibaba, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi, and BYD [3] - According to CICC, the technology sector is expected to present significant investment opportunities by 2026, particularly in new infrastructure driven by technological innovation and structural opportunities arising from domestic demand recovery and high export growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies, encouraging long-term investments in specific equity indices and stocks, while highlighting the potential for a significant increase in equity allocation space due to these adjustments [2][3]. Group 1: Risk Factor Adjustments - The risk factors for holding stocks in the CSI 300 and the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 indices for over three years, as well as for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board for over two years, have been reduced to 90% [3]. - This adjustment is seen as a policy to encourage long-term capital entry into the market, particularly benefiting state-owned insurance companies that have already allocated a high proportion of new premiums to the market [3]. - The reduction in risk factors is expected to release an equity allocation space in the range of hundreds of billions, which is crucial for increasing the equity investment ratio of insurance funds [3]. Group 2: Spring Market Outlook - The spring market is anticipated to be a small-scale rally, potentially characterized by high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the technology sector and cyclical assets [4]. - The market is expected to react to policy layouts starting from mid-December, which may trigger the spring rally, alongside the "insurance opening red" phenomenon [4]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of a rebound in the technology sector as it transitions from a correction phase to a consolidation phase [4]. Group 3: 2026 Market Style and Rhythm - The first half of 2026 is predicted to be a consolidation phase for the "Bull Market 1.0," favoring cyclical and value styles, while the second half is expected to transition into a comprehensive bull market led by technology and advanced manufacturing [5]. - The anticipated improvement in PPI year-on-year in 2026, along with cyclical price increases, positions cyclical assets as foundational for the spring market [5]. - There is a focus on high-dividend opportunities and the potential for a broad rebound in technology stocks, particularly in AI, storage, energy storage, and robotics [5].

Core Insights - The consensus among chief economists is that the core driver of China's economy in 2026 will shift towards domestic demand, particularly in the service sector, leading to a more balanced economic development compared to the current year [2] - The logic of A-share value re-evaluation is expected to continue, with the capital market becoming a core platform for wealth allocation and technological innovation [2] Economic Outlook - In October, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) saw its first month-on-month increase of the year, indicating a positive signal for economic recovery [2] - If PPI continues to narrow its decline or even turn positive year-on-year, it could lead to a mild re-inflation, benefiting corporate profits [2] A-share Market Trends - The improvement in corporate earnings alongside the potential recovery of PPI is anticipated to resonate with valuation expansion, driving a more robust upward trend in A-shares [2] - The A-share market is increasingly recognized as a key stage for both wealth allocation and corporate technological innovation [2] Global Market Considerations - There is acknowledgment of the existence of a bubble in the U.S. AI sector, but the timing and impact of a potential burst are considered manageable [3] - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections are highlighted as a critical period to watch, particularly if the Federal Reserve struggles to lower interest rates or if AI commercial applications do not perform well [3] Technology and Investment Focus - The integration of technology with industry is seen as a core investment focus, with China's vast AI application scenarios providing a more grounded basis for technological innovation compared to U.S. tech giants [3] - The commercial viability of technology in the industrial sector is a key area for future observation [3] Uncertainties Ahead - Economists noted several uncertainties for 2026, including changes in international relations and geopolitics, cross-regional impacts of overseas market fluctuations, and potential domestic political "black swan" events [3]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumer spending as a key macroeconomic policy direction for 2026 and beyond, with specific policy spaces identified for short, medium, and long-term strategies [1][4][5] - Short-term policy measures include extending and expanding direct subsidies, consumer loan interest subsidies, and implementing paid staggered vacations to enhance consumer experience and demand [1][2][3] - Medium-term strategies focus on accelerating consumption tax reform, upgrading consumption infrastructure, leveraging new technologies for product and scene development, and promoting employment-friendly development [4][5] - Long-term perspectives involve improving income distribution systems, enhancing social security, and optimizing consumption through population growth and international demand activation [5][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of the anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts on global markets, leading to a risk-on sentiment and a recovery in stock prices, particularly in technology and materials sectors [6][7][8] - Despite a mixed U.S. economic data landscape, market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [7][15] - The article highlights the performance of various asset classes, noting a significant rise in copper prices and a stable demand for gold, while U.S. Treasury yields have shown volatility [9][10][12] Group 3 - The article outlines recent policy changes in housing provident fund regulations aimed at supporting housing consumption, including increased withdrawal limits and expanded usage scenarios [27][28][29] - It notes that various regions are implementing measures to optimize housing fund policies, aligning them with population policies and enhancing support for high-quality housing [27][28][29] - The article also mentions the broader context of economic recovery efforts, including the promotion of durable goods consumption and the integration of artificial intelligence in consumer sectors [35][36]

"更新"是今年经济主要的变化之一，从消费场景的"更新"、基础的设备"更新"，再到城市"更新"，不断 地"更新"，持续激发中国经济的活力，也为百姓带来"更新"的生活。 今年，更新的产品供给、更新的服务推送，让消费者的个性化需求不断得到满足，消费作为中国经济增 长主引擎的作用更加稳固，让我们一起听听大家都更新了哪些新产品和新服务？ 青岛市民 刘华英："以旧换新"我换了一台热水器，原价应该是五千多元，政府补贴以后花了不到三千 块钱。另外，我这个老太太现在还很时髦啊，还会网购衣服。 江西师范大学学生 黄姿燕：我最近其实观察到了，周边出现了很多比如说24小时无人健身房、室内的 滑雪场，这都是我之前没有体验过的一种新型运动方式。 上海市民 单女士：我的钱更多的"更新"到了体验上面，比如我会去体验网球课，然后打发球机之类 的，这些体验会有一种比较幸福的感觉。 南充市民 唐鑫：今年换了一个新能源车，它的科技感包括它的智能性，比以前油车开起来体验感会好 很多，会让开车变得更有意思。 石家庄市民 黄瑞：我更新了一些让人意想不到的科技产品，所有用户都能用到，让我感觉到近几年科 技发展飞速，感觉太不可思议了。 更新的消费 更新的玩法 ...

贵金属市场更会说话，白银冲到了近59美元，刷新历史新高，黄金也不甘示弱，伦敦和COMEX的价格都在走高，这不是单纯的避险，更是一种对未来货币 宽松的押注，资金在寻求价值储存，美元预期走软，贵金属便有人捧场，市场逻辑简单直接降息，意味着钱更便宜，贵重金属就有理由闪耀。 美股涨，银价飙，降息的影子在市场上跳舞，这是新闻，更是情绪，这就是我要说的开场白，够直白吧。 美国11月私营部门竟然减少3.2万个岗位，这数字像一盆冷水泼在市场脸上，让原本温热的预期瞬间升温成确定，市场把12月降息的概率从猜测变成了押 注，芝商所的工具显示，概率达89%，几乎成了公认事实。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4207.180 | 58.473 | 4238.6 | | +1.150 +0.03% | +0.041 +0.07% | +17.8 +0.42% | | COMEX白银 | SHFF音令 | SHEF自银 | 市场反应直接且有戏剧性，道指涨，纳指挣扎，科技巨头多数受压，微软掉了2.5%，英伟达和Meta也都有落差，但特斯拉倒是欢快地上涨4%，这说明什 么，不要 ...

来源：外汇百科堂 本周的全球市场在缺乏关键经济数据、美联储 12 月会议临近以及美元与黄金的区间运行下，整体呈 现"靠预期行动、靠情绪定价"的特点。就业端疲弱信号从周初开始不断积累，市场对会议是否因信息不 足而出现时间调整的讨论也明显升温，使政策路径成为市场的核心支点。在此背景下，黄金多次在关键 区间获得买盘支撑，美元反复测试底部区间后维持震荡，而风险资产的整体情绪保持谨慎但未出现系统 性退潮。 政策与宏观：数据真空放大市场对美联储行动的揣测空间 由于缺乏重要指标，本周交易更多由预期主导。周初就业指标延续疲弱，让市场重新审视政策走向；到 了周中，"会议可能因数据不足而推迟"的讨论进一步扩散，使投资者在信息有限的情况下将部分信号过 度解读，风险偏好因而出现微妙波动。尽管美联储官员在公开表态中维持谨慎基调，但并未明显压制降 息预期。而随着哈塞特再度被视作未来主席的主要人选，市场对政策偏松的判断出现进一步强化，使本 周整体呈现出数据缺位 → 主观填补 → 情绪放大的典型结构。 外汇：美元在消息驱动下反复企稳 但缺乏明确方向 美元本周的节奏更像在"靠消息撑、没数据难走远"的循环中摆动。部分交易日因官员讲话或避险需求短 ...

中信证券研报指出，在流动性改善、地缘扰动、AI泡沫短期无虞三重因素下，亚洲股市更需聚焦基本 面线索变化带来的结构性配置机会。美联储12月降息预期反转缓解亚洲市场宏观压力，而全球GPR指数 高位运行下俄乌冲突等构成阶段性扰动，AI领域现金流支撑与供应链瓶颈使极端泡沫叙事难现。具体 市场核心观点如下。1）A股：需基本面超预期突破，配置上建议聚焦资源/传统制造业定价权重估与企 业出海主线，关注低拥挤品种与红利标的。2）港股：受益内外部催化有望实现戴维斯双击，建议侧重 科技、医疗、资源品等五大方向。3）韩国股市：依托基本面、政策与流动性推动重估，建议重点关注 半导体/AI等行业。4）印度股市：具备补涨潜力，货币政策宽松背景下建议优先配置利率敏感型企业与 消费板块，逆向看多IT服务。5）日本股市：受益治理红利与外资增配，聚焦行业整合、资产重估等四 大方向。6）东南亚股市：呈现复苏态势，马来西亚建议关注AI与数据中心产业链；印尼建议聚焦消费 与新能源汽车；泰国建议首选消费和旅游板块，整体需密切跟踪宏观变量与政策动向。 ...