在美国联邦政府停摆之际，美股三季度财报季将于本周开启，美国大型银行周二将率先发布业绩报告。 机构预测显示，美国企业第三季度盈利增速可能低于今年上半年，部分原因是关税影响或逐步显现。与 此同时，投资者正密切关注人工智能（AI）巨额支出获得回报的信号，这对于能否化解有关估值担忧 非常关键。 本文字数：2118，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 2025.10.14 银行股能否不负众望 当地时间14日盘前，摩根大通、富国银行、花旗集团和高盛集团将率先发布财报；周三，美国银行和摩 根士丹利也将公布业绩。 西北互助财富管理公司（Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management）股票首席投资组合经理斯塔基（Matt Stucky）表示，投资银行业务活动增加，预计将推动金融机构在第三季度取得强劲业绩。"对于业务多 元化的银行而言，资本市场和投资银行带来的手续费收入是一大优势领域。此外，由于本季度股市创下 历史新高，财富管理手续费收入也有所增长。" KBW分析师麦格拉蒂（Chris McGratty）表示，未来几年银行盈利将实现两位数的同比增长。自2022年 美联储启动加息、导致银行业务 ...

2025.10. 14 本文字数：2118，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 在美国联邦政府停摆之际，美股三季度财报季将于本周开启，美国大型银行周二将率先发布业绩报 告。机构预测显示，美国企业第三季度盈利增速可能低于今年上半年，部分原因是关税影响或逐步显 现。与此同时，投资者正密切关注人工智能（AI）巨额支出获得回报的信号，这对于能否化解有关估 值担忧非常关键。 银行股能否不负众望 当地时间14日盘前，摩根大通、富国银行、花旗集团和高盛集团将率先发布财报；周三，美国银行 和摩根士丹利也将公布业绩。 西北互助财富管理公司（Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management）股票首席投资组合经理斯 塔基（Matt Stucky）表示，投资银行业务活动增加，预计将推动金融机构在第三季度取得强劲业 绩。"对于业务多元化的银行而言，资本市场和投资银行带来的手续费收入是一大优势领域。此外， 由于本季度股市创下历史新高，财富管理手续费收入也有所增长。" KBW分析师麦格拉蒂（Chris McGratty）表示，未来几年银行盈利将实现两位数的同比增长。自 2022年美联储启动加息、导致银 ...

| 股份位置 | 本次世纪初 | | 本次要求数量 | ACCOME | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 数量(股) | | PC .. | 胶型(段) | CLAND | | 天然而多年度分 | 29,586,454 | 6.95% | 3,000,000 | 32.586.454 | 7.61% | | 198655999 | 395,845,205 | 03.050 | | 395,845,295 | 92.399 | | | :425,431,749 | 100% | 3,000,000 | 428,431,749. | 100% | | 115-19 12.1 1972 | 25 查露用 禁止强制的 | 2025 4- | 20261 | 2027年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 酸量(万股) | | 一个历元 | (万元 | (万元 | | 300 | 1,410,00 | 302.27 | 855.99 | 251.74 | | | belocial of the procession in the ...

Core Insights - The continuous increase in new A-share accounts indicates growing investor confidence in China's economy and capital market reforms, highlighting the increasing attractiveness of Chinese assets [1][2][3] - The A-share market has shown resilience amid complex external conditions, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 16.04% year-to-date as of October 13 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In September, 2.9372 million new A-share accounts were opened, a year-on-year increase of 60.73% and a month-on-month increase of 10.83%, marking four consecutive months of growth [1] - The total number of new A-share accounts for the first three quarters of the year reached 20.1489 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49.64% [1] - The resilience of the stock market is supported by a recovering economy and effective government measures to stabilize the market, which have led to a steady increase in market indices [2][3] Group 2: Investment Trends - The deepening reforms in the capital market are providing better investment opportunities, particularly in technology sectors, which have become the main focus of the current market rally [2][3] - The emergence of a "1+N" policy framework has led to significant structural changes in the market, fostering a culture of respecting and rewarding investors among listed companies [3] Group 3: Asset Allocation Shifts - There is a noticeable shift in residents' asset allocation towards financial assets, with A-shares expected to become a core vehicle for wealth preservation and appreciation [3][4] - Data from the central bank indicates a decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan in household deposits, while non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, signaling a migration of funds towards financial assets [3] - High-net-worth clients and industrial capital are driving the growth of securities margin financing, indicating a preference for core assets in the A-share market among risk-tolerant investors [3]

Core Points - The US stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 1.29%, the Nasdaq up 2.21%, and the S&P 500 up 1.56% [1] - Popular technology stocks experienced significant gains, with Broadcom rising over 9%, Tesla and Oracle up over 5%, Google up over 3%, and Nvidia up over 2% [1] - Cryptocurrency mining companies, precious metals, and semiconductors led the gains, with Bitfarms up over 28%, Nanometrics up over 21%, Arm up over 11%, Micron Technology and Pan American Silver up over 6%, and Qualcomm up over 5% [1] - The tobacco, food, and weight-loss sectors saw declines, with Beyond Meat dropping over 48%, General Mills down over 2%, and Eli Lilly down over 1% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 3.21%, with popular Chinese concept stocks also seeing gains, including Century Internet up over 10%, NIO up nearly 7%, Miniso up over 5%, Alibaba and JD.com up over 4%, and Xpeng and Baidu up over 3% [1]

Core Insights - The continuous increase in new A-share accounts indicates growing investor confidence in China's economy and capital market reforms, highlighting the increasing attractiveness of Chinese assets [1][2][3] - The A-share market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a year-to-date increase of 16.04% as of October 13, driven by positive macroeconomic fundamentals and a series of stabilizing measures [1][2] - The deepening reforms in the capital market are providing better investment opportunities, particularly in technology sectors, which are becoming the main focus of the current market rally [2][3] Market Dynamics - The influx of institutional investors, with 10,900 new accounts in September, marks a significant milestone and reflects a growing trend towards long-term and value investing [3] - The shift in residents' asset allocation towards financial assets, particularly A-shares, is becoming evident as traditional investments like real estate face regulatory constraints [3][4] - The trend of asset migration to A-shares is expected to continue, but maintaining investor confidence through protection measures and promoting rational investment practices is crucial for sustaining this trend [4]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced significant fluctuations due to external uncertainties, particularly following the announcement of a 100% tariff on all imports from China by the U.S. starting November 1, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.50, down 0.19%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.11%. The Sci-Tech 50 Index, however, rose by 1.40% [7][8]. - The market showed a clear adjustment with a total of 1682 stocks rising and 3628 falling, with a total trading volume of 2.37 trillion, a decrease of approximately 6.3% from the previous trading day [7][8]. - Resource sectors and self-sufficiency stocks led the market, driven by a 37% increase in rare earth prices and export control policies. Precious metals also saw gains due to their safe-haven status amid U.S.-China tensions [8][11]. Bond Market - The bond market saw an overall increase, with government bond futures rising across the board. The 30-year main contract increased by 0.37%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts rose by 0.10%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [10]. - The interbank market maintained a loose funding environment, with the central bank conducting a 137.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan [10][11]. - The rise in long-term government bonds was primarily driven by increased risk aversion and a stable funding environment, with expectations of continued fluctuations in the bond market [10][11]. Commodity Market - Precious metals continued to lead the commodity market, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs. Gold futures rose by 1.99%, while silver increased by 2.84% [11]. - The rise in precious metals was attributed to heightened global economic uncertainty due to U.S.-China trade tensions, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [11]. - The pork market continued to decline, with futures prices hitting a new low of 11,125 yuan per ton, driven by seasonal demand drops and supply chain issues [11]. Trading Hotspots - Key trading opportunities identified include precious metals, artificial intelligence, nuclear fusion, domestic chips, robotics, and consumer sectors, driven by factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical risks, and domestic economic recovery [12][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and domestic economic stimulus measures as critical factors influencing market trends [12][13]. Core Insights - Despite short-term volatility due to external shocks, core indices are expected to maintain an upward trajectory, supported by China's increasing core competitiveness amid U.S.-China tensions [13]. - The bond market is anticipated to remain in a state of recovery, bolstered by a loose funding environment and global liquidity trends [13]. - Commodity prices, particularly for precious metals, are expected to continue their strong performance, driven by both safe-haven demand and favorable monetary policies [13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment stance due to ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations and domestic consumption trends [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent surge in gold and base metal prices is driven by increased geopolitical risks and the potential for U.S. government shutdowns, suggesting that these factors will continue to support commodity prices in the near future [4][17]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring Japan's political changes, which could lead to both short-term asset price volatility and long-term structural economic reforms [5][23]. - The report notes that consumer spending data during the holiday period was weaker than expected, reflecting broader economic challenges, and suggests that high-valuation sectors are experiencing significant corrections [6][29]. Summary by Sections U.S.-China Trade Relations - The report discusses the impact of renewed U.S.-China tariffs, which have led to significant market volatility, particularly affecting U.S. stocks and Chinese concept stocks [3][10]. - It suggests that market sentiment has adjusted to these developments, potentially limiting asset declines [3]. Commodity Market Outlook - The report identifies a new bull market cycle for colored resources, driven by global supply chain adjustments and rising demand from emerging industries [2][15]. - It specifically highlights the bullish outlook for precious metals, basic metals, and strategic minor metals, with gold expected to benefit from declining real interest rates and de-dollarization trends [17][18]. Japanese Political Landscape - The report outlines the implications of recent political changes in Japan, which are expected to influence stock market performance and monetary policy [5][23]. - It notes that the new leadership may not pursue aggressive fiscal expansion, which could stabilize the yen and impact market expectations [24][27]. Consumer Trends - The report indicates that consumer spending during the recent holiday period was below expectations, with a notable shift in consumer preferences towards experience-based spending [6][29]. - It highlights that structural changes in consumer behavior, particularly among younger demographics, are shaping the retail landscape [29]. Market Valuation and Performance - The report assesses current market valuations as high, with both U.S. and Chinese markets showing signs of inflated valuations compared to historical levels [7][8]. - It notes that U.S. stock performance has been primarily driven by earnings revisions, while Hong Kong stocks have relied more on valuation increases [9]. Future Market Dynamics - The report expresses uncertainty regarding future market trends due to escalating unexpected events and the complexities of trade negotiations [10][11]. - It suggests that the credit cycles in both the U.S. and China are approaching a phase of recovery, with potential implications for asset prices [12][14]. Specific Metal Outlook - The report provides a positive outlook for silver, driven by industrial demand recovery and its correlation with gold price movements [20]. - It also highlights the potential for basic metals to enter a bull market due to supply disruptions and increasing demand from new industries [21][22]. Strategic Resource Management - The report emphasizes the growing importance of strategic resource management, particularly for critical minerals like cobalt, lithium, and rare earths, which are expected to maintain bullish trends [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting stance of former President Trump regarding the trade war with China, indicating a potential retreat from aggressive tariff policies due to domestic economic pressures and the realization of the negative impacts of such policies on the U.S. economy [1][4][10]. Economic Impact - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that by 2025, American households will face an increased annual expenditure of $2,100 to $3,800 due to tariffs, with low-income families being disproportionately affected [6]. - The short-term price increase of goods due to tariffs is approximately 1.7% to 1.8%, resulting in an average loss of about $2,400 per household this year [6]. - The volatility in the U.S. stock market, particularly affecting tech and manufacturing sectors, reflects growing concerns over tariff policies leading to capital flight [6]. Supply Chain Challenges - Stricter origin verification mechanisms complicate global supply chains, forcing companies to adjust logistics and factory layouts, which increases overall logistics costs and compliance burdens [8]. - The article highlights that Trump's tariff policies are contributing to the fragmentation of the global economy and creating a "supply chain isolation" for the U.S., which could dilute its overall competitiveness in the long run [8]. Political and Legal Ramifications - Domestic legal challenges are emerging against Trump's tariff policies, with some companies and industry associations filing lawsuits, questioning the president's authority to impose tariffs under national security claims [16]. - If courts uphold these challenges, it could fundamentally undermine the existing tariff framework, leading to increased uncertainty in the trade environment and diminishing investment confidence [18]. International Relations - The article notes that Trump's unilateral and bullying tactics have damaged U.S.-China relations, with China responding firmly to U.S. tariffs, particularly affecting American agricultural and energy sectors [14][12]. - The article emphasizes that many countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on the U.S. market and are moving towards regional integration, while China is actively pursuing multilateral trade cooperation [18][20]. Strategic Misalignment - Trump's recent shift in tone is viewed as a tactical adjustment ahead of midterm elections rather than a genuine strategic change, as he faces increasing domestic opposition to the trade war [20]. - The article concludes that for genuine improvement in U.S.-China economic relations, the U.S. must abandon its unilateral sanctions and tariff threats, and instead engage in respectful and mutually beneficial negotiations [22].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debate around interest rate cuts in the U.S. is creating uncertainty in global markets, with traders expecting two more cuts this year while Federal Reserve officials express concerns about persistent inflation [1][15]. Group 1: Interest Rate Dynamics - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to 4.25%-4.5% at the end of last year, but this followed a period of rates above 5% for two years, leading to significant capital inflows into the U.S. [3]. - The expectation of slower interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to renewed capital outflows from emerging markets, as higher U.S. interest rates attract funds [3][5]. Group 2: Impact on Domestic Economy - The high U.S. interest rates limit the Chinese central bank's ability to lower domestic interest rates, affecting mortgage rates and housing market stimulation efforts [5]. - A strong U.S. dollar puts pressure on the Chinese yuan, leading to increased costs for imported goods, which could contribute to domestic inflation [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The anticipation of interest rate changes has led to volatility in various sectors, with gold prices dropping significantly in response to reduced rate cut expectations [10]. - The financial sector benefits from a high-interest environment, with U.S. financial stocks performing well while other sectors, like technology, face challenges [10]. Group 4: External Trade Considerations - The U.S. unemployment rate is projected to rise, which may reduce consumer spending and impact export orders from China, particularly in manufacturing hubs like the Yangtze River Delta [11]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meetings are closely monitored by businesses involved in foreign trade, as decisions made can significantly affect their operations [13]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on long-term strategies, such as selecting undervalued stocks with high dividends or investing in broad market indices, rather than reacting to short-term fluctuations driven by Federal Reserve communications [13][15].