Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market adjusted, with the ChiNext index falling over 1% and total trading volume decreasing to 2.37 trillion yuan [1][2] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains among the Shenwan first-level industries [1] Trade Data - In September, China's total goods trade value reached 4.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year [2][3] - Exports amounted to 2.34 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year, while imports were 1.70 trillion yuan, increasing by 7.5% [2] Economic Indicators - The rebound in both export and import growth indicates a synchronized improvement in domestic and external demand [3] - The resilience in exports is attributed to China's ongoing market diversification strategy and product structure optimization, enhancing overall competitiveness and value-added exports [3] Market Sentiment - The market is currently observing a high-risk preference, with attention on the changes in incremental capital, especially high-risk preference funds [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's continued interest rate cuts and manageable tariff risks contribute to maintaining a high market risk appetite [1][2] Sector Performance - On October 13, the A-share market saw declines in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.93% [4] - The non-ferrous metals, environmental protection, and steel sectors showed notable gains, while the automotive, home appliances, and beauty care sectors experienced significant declines [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% today, with a trading volume of 977.15 million shares and a total transaction value of 1,590.694 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.91% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The banking sector showed the smallest decline with a change of 0.02%, leading to a transaction value of 26.969 billion yuan, which is an increase of 5.62% from the previous day. The top-performing stock in this sector was Pudong Development Bank, which rose by 4.48% [1] - The automotive sector experienced the largest decline at 3.26%, with a transaction value of 81.481 billion yuan, down by 5.28% from the previous day. The leading stock in this sector was RY Electronics, which fell by 10.00% [2] - Other sectors with significant declines included electric power equipment (-2.71%), communication (-2.65%), and non-bank financials (-1.99%) [1][2] Notable Stocks - In the banking sector, Pudong Development Bank was the standout performer with a gain of 4.48% [1] - In the automotive sector, RY Electronics led the decline with a drop of 10.00% [2] - In the electric power equipment sector, Mingzhi Electric fell by 8.33% [2]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月13日 商贸零售行业 10 月投资策略暨三季报前瞻 优于大市 消费整体平稳增长，把握细分板块配置机遇 4）跨境电商：三季度主要企业预计收入端仍受益于海外需求稳步增长和国 内优质产品创新助推，但利润端受外部环境扰动预计分化明显。当前外部关 贸环境虽仍有变数，但国内优质头部平台型企业通过灵活的关税应对措施， 以及坚实的产品力壁垒，长期来看已经具备了强抗风险韧性。 投资建议：维持板块"优于大市"评级。在大盘水位走高下消费板块滞涨已 久，Q4 在海内外旺季及大促的基本面带动下，存在板块轮动下的补涨机会。 1）美容护理：存量市场下，产品积极迭代升级，渠道精细化运营的国货龙 头有望持续提升市占率，推荐：上美股份、青木科技、毛戈平、上海家化、 登康口腔、若羽臣等。2）黄金珠宝：在当前金价持续高位以及工艺进步下 为黄金品类赋予了悦己和保值两大新消费特质，积极通过差异化设计布局一 口价产品的企业，有望持续受益，推荐：潮宏基、周大福、曼卡龙等。3） 线下零售：板块整体偏内需为主，受外部环境扰动影响较小，短期可关注兼 具改善主线和低估值低位置标的：名创优品、重庆百货、永辉超市等。4） 跨境电商：外 ...

分析师：罗鹏 执业证书号：S1030523040001 大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 13 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 郑彬彬] 执业证书号：S1030523030001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhengbb@csco.com.cn 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 分析师：赵靖 执业证书号：S1030525070001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 国庆中秋双节消费稳中有增 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（10 月第 2 周） [行业Table_S 观点：ummary ] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率 ...

Consumer Macro Strategy - The report highlights three major events that influenced consumer market trends over the past two weeks, including stable growth in overall consumption during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with a notable increase in outbound tourism but fewer domestic consumption highlights leading to a post-holiday decline in related sectors [3][10] - The Q3 earnings preview indicates that while the overall consumer service sector remains stable compared to Q2, consumption-related products face high base pressure in Q4, and other sectors are in a positioning phase after negative earnings surprises in Q3 [3][10] - The ongoing US-China technological competition is expanding into the consumer sector, with new tariffs announced by the US on imports from China, posing challenges for export-oriented consumer companies [3][10] New Consumption Manufacturing - The two-wheeler market showed strong performance in Q3, with healthy inventory levels in downstream channels, but the industry faces a critical test in Q1 2026 [21] - The pet industry is experiencing weaker performance in the off-season, but the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to act as a catalyst [21] Light Industry Manufacturing - In the home furnishing sector, domestic demand remains weak due to unhealed real estate issues, while external demand faces increased tariff risks, with significant tariff hikes announced by the US [24] - The new tobacco sector is seeing intensified actions against illegal e-cigarettes in the US, benefiting legitimate brands, while HNB products maintain strong production schedules in Japan and Europe [27] - The packaging paper market is experiencing a bullish sentiment with frequent price increases expected [27] Textile and Apparel - The apparel retail sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.1% in August, but sales weakened in September and during the National Day holiday due to weather conditions and timing changes [29] - The report suggests focusing on brands with unique market positions and those showing significant performance advantages in sub-sectors [29][30] Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector is recovering after a previous decline, with cosmetic retail sales increasing by 5.1% year-on-year in August, indicating a positive trend [31] - Recommendations include focusing on leading brands with strong performance and those undergoing successful reforms [31] Home Appliances - TV panel prices remained stable in early October, with various sizes maintaining consistent pricing [32] - Gree Electric's new product line aims to capture the online market segment, enhancing its competitive position [32][33] Retail and E-commerce - Offline retail shows signs of stabilization, with supermarkets performing well while department stores face slight pressure [34] - The jewelry sector is benefiting from rising gold prices, enhancing consumer acceptance and brand premium capabilities [34] Social Services - The report expresses optimism for high-value dining and the recovery of mid-to-high-end restaurants, alongside stable growth in tourism and education sectors [35] - The tea beverage market is expected to see a decline in performance due to policy impacts, with leading brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming showing growth potential [36]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a strong tourism data during the National Day holiday, with cross-border tourism consumption being a significant highlight, while box office performance was relatively weak [3] - The report anticipates that the third quarter earnings reports will focus on four main areas: benefiting from external interest rate cuts and emerging demand in non-ferrous metals, price stabilization in steel, coal, chemicals, and photovoltaics, steady growth in automotive, lithium batteries, electricity, and logistics, and AI-related sectors driven by domestic and international demand [3][4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report indicates that the overall revenue of the real estate development industry shrank by 14.9% year-on-year to 1.54 trillion yuan, with a net profit loss of 867 billion yuan, marking a 157.2% decline [11] - The report emphasizes that 2025 will see a continued focus on policy-driven growth in the real estate sector, with a recommendation to prioritize investments in leading companies and those with strong fundamentals [12] Group 3: Company Insights - The report discusses China Resources Beverage's decision to relocate its registered office to Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance operational stability and investor confidence [15] - The company aims to strengthen its product matrix by focusing on multiple brands and water types, with plans to launch 14 new products in the beverage sector [16]

Core Insights - In September 2025, the total amount of shares sold by directors, supervisors, and senior executives of listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached approximately 12.405 billion yuan, involving 331 companies, while the total amount of shares bought was about 0.781 billion yuan, involving 89 companies, resulting in a net reduction of 11.624 billion yuan [1][4]. Summary by Category Shareholding Changes - The amount of shares sold in September 2025 increased by 616.51% year-on-year and by 91.38% month-on-month, while the amount of shares bought decreased by 27.39% year-on-year but increased by 308.42% month-on-month [1][4]. Top Companies by Share Reduction - The company with the highest share reduction was Huichuan Technology, where a director sold 9.6021 million shares for approximately 770 million yuan [4]. - Huitai Medical ranked second with a reduction of 2.8203 million shares, amounting to about 700 million yuan [4]. - Ruichuang Micro-Nano ranked third, with a reduction of 7.5637 million shares, totaling approximately 512 million yuan [4]. Industry Analysis - The electronics industry had the highest total share reduction in September, amounting to approximately 3.224 billion yuan, followed by the machinery equipment industry at 2.603 billion yuan and the pharmaceutical and biological industry at 990 million yuan [14]. - In terms of share purchases, the electronics industry also led with a total of approximately 297 million yuan, followed by the beauty and personal care industry at 107 million yuan and the computer industry at 92 million yuan [23]. Notable Share Purchases - The highest share purchase was made by Luxshare Precision, with a total purchase amount of 201 million yuan [20]. - The second highest was Sturdy Medical, with a total of approximately 107 million yuan from multiple executives [20]. - Han's Information ranked third with a purchase amount of approximately 91 million yuan [20].

Core Insights - As of September 30, the total margin financing and securities lending balance on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) was 7.418 billion yuan, a decrease of 206 million yuan from the previous trading day, marking a continuous decline for three consecutive trading days [1] - The stocks with the highest margin financing balances included Shuguang Shuchuang, Jinbo Biological, and Betterray, with latest financing balances of 362 million yuan, 344 million yuan, and 316 million yuan respectively [1] - A total of 75 stocks on the BSE experienced net margin purchases on September 30, with 18 stocks having net purchases exceeding 1 million yuan, led by Audiwei with a net purchase of 9.827 million yuan [1][2] Financing and Trading Activity - The average increase in margin financing for stocks on the BSE was 0.08% for those with net purchases exceeding 1 million yuan, with notable gainers including Tongli Co., Andako Technology, and Huawi Design, which rose by 5.79%, 4.34%, and 3.76% respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest margin financing increases included Audiwei, Jinbo Biological, and Lingge Technology, with increases of 9.827 million yuan, 7.423 million yuan, and 6.028 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The average turnover rate for stocks with net purchases exceeding 1 million yuan was 4.52%, with the highest turnover rates seen in Jiaxian Co., Balanshi, and Hengli Drilling, at 4.84%, 3.32%, and 2.55% respectively [2] Sector Performance - The sectors with the most stocks experiencing net margin purchases over 1 million yuan included machinery equipment, automotive, and construction decoration, with 6, 2, and 2 stocks respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest margin financing balances as of September 30 were primarily in the electronic, beauty care, and machinery equipment sectors [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant inflow of southbound funds, particularly favoring the consumer sector and defensive styles ahead of the National Day holiday [1][3][4] - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of over 40.3 billion yuan in the week leading up to the holiday, with a notable single-day net purchase of nearly 14.2 billion yuan on September 30 [3][4] - The attractiveness of the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to the acceleration of profit recovery and valuation repair, with expectations for a positive fourth quarter driven by improved profit expectations and supportive liquidity conditions [3][4][5] Group 2 - During the holiday period, southbound trading was paused, yet overseas funds, particularly from South Korea, continued to engage in the market, with a total trading volume of approximately 150 million USD from October 1 to 6 [1][5] - The Hang Seng Index showed a slight increase of 0.38% during the period from October 2 to 6, with significant performance in gold stocks and a 1.31% rise in the Hang Seng Tech Index, indicating a diverse market structure [5] - Analysts suggest that the fourth quarter will be a critical phase for the Hong Kong stock market, with a shift in investment logic towards new productive forces and high-quality development, recommending investors to adopt a balanced approach and focus on sectors like technology, high-end manufacturing, and biomedicine [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][30]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in key consumer sub-sectors, with tourism attractions, hotel catering, and general retail experiencing drops of -11.65%, -8.38%, and -4.97% respectively during the week of September 22-26, 2025 [2][16]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued guidelines to promote digital consumption, emphasizing support for instant retail, social e-commerce, and live-streaming e-commerce [3][23]. - TOPTOY, a subsidiary of Miniso, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with revenue growth from 679 million yuan in 2022 to 1.909 billion yuan in 2024, and a 58.5% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025 [4][26]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - For the week of September 22-26, 2025, the retail trade, social services, and beauty care sectors fell by 4.32%, 5.92%, and 2.25% respectively, ranking 29th, 31st, and 25th among 31 primary industries [14][16]. Key Industry Data and News - The report notes a 5.6% year-on-year increase in daily flight volumes in the civil aviation sector, with domestic flights up 7.9% compared to 2019 [4][23]. - The report discusses the launch of the Tmall Double 11 pre-sale on October 15, 2025, and the support for cross-border shipping and return services on 12 overseas sites [4][27]. Key Company Announcements - Juzi Holding, the controlling shareholder of Juzi Biotechnology, has increased its stake to 54.45% through a purchase of approximately 105.6 million Hong Kong dollars worth of shares [4][28]. - Proya has launched a new ruby mask product, claiming to enhance skin firmness with a unique peptide formula [3][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Proya, Juzi Biotechnology, Marubi, Runben, and others within the beauty care and new consumption sectors [5][30].