1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs, and predicts that they will all experience wide - range fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to fluctuate within a range due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 706.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan or 0.43%. The positions increased by 4,370 hands. Among spot prices, the price of most ores decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads also changed to varying degrees [4]. - **News**: On June 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, unchanged from the previous month [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03%. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.16%. In terms of inventory and demand, there were corresponding changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][8][9]. - **News**: In May 2025, national steel production data showed a decline in crude steel and pig iron production year - on - year, and an increase in steel production. On June 19, steel production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand changed [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Ferrosilicon is affected by sector sentiment resonance and silicomanganese has a firm ore - end quotation, both with wide - range fluctuations [2][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [10]. - **News**: On June 23, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed, and a steel mill in Shandong finalized the ferrosilicon purchase price [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Four rounds of coke price cuts have been implemented [2][13]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of coke and coking coal futures changed, and there were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads. The positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts also changed [13][15]. - **News**: On June 23, the prices of coking coal in some regions changed, and the positions of the top 20 members in the DCE showed that the long positions of coking coal increased and the short positions decreased, while for coke, both long and short positions decreased [13][14][15]. Thermal Coal - **Market Trend**: Demand remains to be released, with wide - range fluctuations [2][17]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day, with an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a closing price of 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan. There were corresponding prices for domestic and foreign trade thermal coal, and the positions of the top 20 members in the ZCE did not change [18][19]. Logs - **Market Trend**: The basis is being repaired, with wide - range fluctuations [2][21]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed, and the prices of various types of logs in the spot market were mostly stable [21]. - **News**: On June 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, unchanged from the previous month [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand [1]. - The evolution of the Israel - Iran situation is crucial, determining the short - term direction and pricing logic of major asset classes. There is uncertainty in the short - term, and the subsequent counter - attack strength of Iran needs to be observed [1]. - Risk appetite is under short - term pressure, but the impact is limited with a stable RMB. The implied volatility of energy and the stability of offshore US dollar liquidity should be continuously tracked [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance Review - The overall commodity market rose 2.29% last week. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.11%, while the agricultural products and black sectors rose 2.10% and 0.91% respectively. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors fell 1.76% and 0.09% respectively [1][5]. - Among specific varieties, crude oil, methanol, and short - fiber led the gains with increases of 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively. Gold, pulp, and silver were the top decliners with drops of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1][5]. - The funds in the market decreased, mainly affected by the outflow of funds from precious metals [1][5]. 3.2 Market Outlook by Sector Precious Metals - International gold prices consolidated at high levels due to dovish signals from Fed officials, increased market expectations of interest rate cuts this year, a decline in the US dollar index, and continued gold purchases by global central banks. Silver showed a relatively differentiated performance, fluctuating within a range affected by manufacturing data [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - The non - ferrous metals sector fluctuated narrowly. Copper prices consolidated at high levels, supported by tight overseas inventories and continued global new energy investment, but the upward momentum slowed due to the Fed's interest rate policy and weak high - level consumption. Aluminum prices found support near the electrolytic aluminum cost line, and the market focused on power costs and inventory destocking [2]. Black Metals - Steel futures continued to rebound, driven by increased expectations of "stable growth" policies and the fermentation of Tangshan production restriction news. Iron ore prices stabilized following steel as port inventories decreased due to the Brazilian rainy season. The fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, and coking coal was more willing to follow the price increase, maintaining the resilience of the black metal industry chain, but the recovery of terminal demand still requires policy support [2]. Energy - Crude oil futures rose significantly due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories. OPEC+ implemented production cuts well, and the market had positive expectations for the summer oil - using peak season, keeping oil prices strong in the short - term and driving the联动上涨 of fuel oil, asphalt and other varieties [3]. Chemicals - Driven by rising energy prices, the chemical sector generally strengthened. Some varieties such as methanol, PTA, and fuel oil made up for lost ground, and the inventory destocking speed accelerated due to some device overhauls and cost increases. Weak varieties such as PVC and ethylene glycol got short - term support, but the substantial recovery of the downstream has not been clear, and the market is more trading - driven [3]. Agricultural Products - The oil and oilseed sector fluctuated strongly. Although US soybean export data was weak, domestic rapeseed varieties rose supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, with rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil leading the gains. Corn prices were under pressure due to import substitution and declining deep - processing profitability. Pig prices fluctuated and corrected due to the off - season consumption and the pressure of slaughter, and industry confidence was still insufficient [3]. 3.3 Commodity - Related Fund Situation - Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with the overall gold ETF having a - 1.86% to - 1.95% decline, and the total scale decreased by 1.06%. The trading volume of gold ETFs decreased significantly [42]. - The energy - chemical futures ETF had a positive weekly return of 5.34%, and its scale increased by 2.07%, but the trading volume decreased by 78.24% [42]. - The soybean meal futures ETF had a weekly return of 0.73%, and its scale increased slightly by 0.17%, with a small decrease in trading volume [42]. - The non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a weekly return of - 0.20%, and its scale increased by 1.19%, with a 23.67% decrease in trading volume [42]. - The silver futures (LOF) had a weekly return of - 0.99%, and its trading volume increased by 64.13% while the scale remained unchanged [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain volatile, waiting for a driving force to break through. The macro - level lacks new drivers, and the cost - collapse narrative in the black sector has become less smooth. The market is cautious about demand during the off - season, and there is no strong rebound driver for the black sector. The steel basis still shows a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there is a possibility of the spot price moving towards the futures price during the off - season [4][5]. - The spot market for coking coal and coke is still weak, with the fourth round of price cuts for coke about to be implemented. However, the futures market has strengthened, and the basis has rapidly narrowed. Although the spot market sentiment has improved, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations. It is recommended that industrial customers actively participate in hedging, and ordinary investors wait for the situation to become clear [6]. - The steel tender prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have been determined, and the prices are expected to stabilize in the short term. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is weak, and attention should be paid to the actions of alloy plants due to increased production losses. The supply of silicomanganese has recovered, the demand has weakened, and the price is under pressure but the short - term decline space is limited [7]. - The trend of iron ore has not changed, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. Although the molten iron output has slightly increased, the inventory of steel mills has risen significantly due to increased sea - borne cargo. The iron ore shipment is increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight decline to a slight increase. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, a reduction in steel mill profits is necessary for spontaneous production cuts [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 20, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2985 yuan/ton with a 5 - yuan increase (0.17% increase), HC2601 at 3107 yuan/ton with a 9 - yuan increase (0.29% increase), I2601 at 674 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase (0.60% increase), J2601 at 1411.5 yuan/ton with a 14.5 - yuan increase (1.04% increase), and JM2601 at 821.5 yuan/ton with a 9.5 - yuan increase (1.17% increase). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2992 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase (0.23% increase), HC2510 at 3116 yuan/ton with a 12 - yuan increase (0.39% increase), I2509 at 703 yuan/ton with a 6.5 - yuan increase (0.93% increase), J2509 at 1384.5 yuan/ton with a 216.5 - yuan increase (1.21% increase), and JM2509 at 795 yuan/ton with an 8.5 - yuan increase (1.08% increase) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and profits of futures contracts also showed corresponding changes on June 20. For example, the RB2510 - 2601 spread was 7 yuan/ton with no change, the HC2510 - 2601 spread was 9 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase, the coil - to - rebar spread was 124 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.26 with a 0.02 decrease, etc. [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 20, the spot prices of various products also had different changes. For example, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3070 yuan/ton with no change, Tianjin rebar was 3220 yuan/ton with no change, Guangzhou rebar was 3150 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3210 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, etc. [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of various products also changed. For example, the HC main - contract basis was 94 yuan/ton with a 17 - yuan increase, the RB main - contract basis was 78 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan decrease, etc. [2]. Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, conduct rolling hedging and open - position management, and rotate spot inventories. For on - the - disk arbitrage, pay attention to short - term long positions in coking coal and coke. Industrial customers should actively participate in selling hedging [9]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Hold long positions in ferrosilicon and short positions in silicomanganese, and participate in single - side trading through options [9].

国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 | liuyuwu@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年06月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、铁矿石观点：现实预期再度博弈，区间震荡 2、钢材观点：宏观情绪波动，钢价宽幅震荡 3、铁合金观点：板块价格共振上涨，矿端情绪助推 4、煤焦：焦炭四轮提降开启，宽幅震荡 Special report on Guotai Juna ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodity futures stabilized and rose slightly today. The terminal demand for finished products is expected to face the risk of weakening in the off - season, and the iron ore price range may move down, with a reference range of 720 - 670 [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The black - series commodity futures stabilized and rose slightly today. The rebar closed at 2992 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3116 yuan/ton, up 0.39%; the iron ore main contract closed at 703 yuan/ton; and the coking coal and coke both rose [1] Market Analysis - The inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline to 1.33889 million tons this week, reaching a five - month low with a decline of 1.16%. Except for cold - rolled steel, the production of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rose by 160,800 tons to 884,180 tons in total [1] - The profitability of 247 steel mills rebounded to 59.31% week - on - week, and the driving force for production reduction was limited. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.41 percentage points to 83.82% week - on - week, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased to 90.79%. The daily average pig iron output stopped falling after five consecutive declines, increasing by 5700 tons to 242,180 tons week - on - week, and increasing by 22,400 tons year - on - year [1] - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 4.49% week - on - week to 33.527 million tons, a decrease of 1.577 million tons, but it was still at the highest level in the same period in recent years, with a year - on - year increase of 10.59%. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased by 1.564 million tons to 25.175 million tons week - on - week, within the normal fluctuation range [1] - Considering the expectation of the mine's end - of - season rush at the end of June and the subsequent transmission of high overseas shipments to the future domestic arrival volume, the iron ore supply is becoming looser. The daily average port iron ore clearance volume rebounded from a three - month low this week. The weekly inventory of imported ore at 47 ports in the country decreased by 695,800 tons to 14.43356 million tons, nearly 7% lower year - on - year [1] - With the absolute low inventory in the factory, steel mills replenished inventory as needed. The inventory of imported ore in the factory rebounded by 1.3756 million tons to 8.93624 million tons this week, also at a one - month high; the inventory - to - consumption ratio rebounded by 0.4 days to 29.69 days [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium to long term; double - coking is expected to have wide - range oscillations; iron ore prices are expected to have support at the bottom; ferroalloys are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3][8][12][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: In May 2025, automobile production was 2.642 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; from January to May, automobile production was 12.757 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. In May, air - conditioner retail sales increased by 30.4% online and 27.1% offline. In July 2025, the production schedule of household air - conditioners was 14.31 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The spot prices of Shanghai and Tianjin hot - rolled coils and Shanghai threaded steel decreased by 10 yuan [3] - **Logical Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated strongly last night. This week, blast furnaces resumed production, and overall steel production increased. Hot - rolled apparent demand increased, while threaded - steel apparent demand decreased slightly. Steel is still destocking, but the destocking speed of threaded steel has slowed down. It is expected that apparent demand will continue to weaken with the arrival of the off - season. The funds of downstream construction sites have decreased, and steel export data has rebounded. Blast - furnace production has peaked, but profits are high, and some blast furnaces may resume production. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved, with a short - term small rebound. After entering the off - season, contradictions may accumulate, triggering a negative feedback [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, steel maintains a bottom - oscillating trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct a 10 - 01 reverse spread when the price is high; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [4][6] Double - Coking - **Related Information**: Tangshan steel mills plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on June 23. The average national profit per ton of coke is - 23 yuan/ton. The prices of coke and coking - coal warehouse receipts are provided [7] - **Logical Analysis**: Recently, some coal mines have reduced production, while others have resumed production. The price of coking coal in some mines has rebounded slightly, but the inventory pressure remains. This week, pig - iron production increased slightly, but steel mills still maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and some steel mills have proposed a fourth - round price cut. The fundamentals of double - coking have slightly improved, and short - term disk games are intense. The Middle - East geopolitical situation may have an indirect impact on international coal prices, with a greater impact on sentiment than on substance. Short - term disturbances increase, and disk games intensify, with wide - range oscillations expected [8] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see mainly due to wide - range oscillations; for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading, it is recommended to wait and see [9] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On June 19, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, and the trading volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 6.8% month - on - month. The spot prices of Qingdao Port PB powder, super - special powder, and card powder are provided [11] - **Logical Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated narrowly last night. The core factors driving the market are weak. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines are stable, and non - mainstream mines have rebounded rapidly. On the demand side, pig - iron production increased slightly this week, and terminal demand maintains resilience. The market is concerned about whether the weak off - season reality can be continuously traded. Compared with last year, the current black - metal valuation is low, and the recent decline shows a small positive - spread trend. It is expected that there will be support at the bottom of the ore price [12] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, there is support at the bottom; for arbitrage, a 9/1 inter - period positive spread is mainly recommended; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [13] Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: On the 19th, the price of Gabon blocks at Tianjin Port was about 36.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - carbonate was 32.8 - 33 yuan/ton - degree. The June silicon - manganese pricing of Hebei Iron and Steel Group is 5650 yuan/ton [15] - **Logical Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, on the 19th, the spot price in some regions increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, some factories in Qinghai have new overhauls, and this week's production is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, the steel apparent - demand data is better than expected, driving the overall black - metal to stabilize and rebound, but the sustainability may be weak. Ferrosilicon is affected by energy - price fluctuations and oscillates at the bottom. For silicomanganese, on the 19th, manganese ore was stable, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The supply is also expected to decline slightly, and the demand rebound is not expected to be sustainable. The port manganese ore oscillates weakly at a low level. The steel - procurement price has increased, and there is some support, but the demand is limited, continuing to oscillate at the bottom [15][16] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it oscillates at the bottom; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell call options when the price is high [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as international political situations, central bank policies, and seasonal demand changes. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, the stock index is under回调 pressure due to international uncertainties, while the bond market may be affected by central bank operations and cross - quarter factors. Precious metals face "滞涨" due to the difficult loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, and various commodity futures have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [2][8][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market declined across the board on Thursday, with all major indexes down. The four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is affected by international news such as the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interest rate decision. It is recommended to wait and see and observe the basis state of the futures contracts [2][3][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The money market showed a slight convergence, and the Fed's interest rate decision had an impact on the market. It is recommended to allocate long positions on dips, pay attention to the TS2509 contract positive arbitrage strategy, and consider the curve steepening strategy when the conditions are right [7][8]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market showed "滞涨" due to the Fed's difficult - to - loosen monetary policy. Gold may have a callback risk in the short term, while silver may have an upward space if inflation expectations rise. It is recommended to hold short - call options on gold and pay attention to the impact of the Middle East situation on silver [12][13]. Container Shipping Index - The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract continued to fluctuate. The weak price increase of some airlines in July affected the bullish sentiment on the disk. It is expected that the 08 contract will remain in a volatile market in the short term, with the main operation range of 1900 - 2200 [15][16]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market had weak driving forces and narrow - range fluctuations. The macro - economic outlook was weak, but the supply - side raw materials were tight, and the inventory was low. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, with the main reference range of 77000 - 80000 [16][17][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was in a weak and volatile state. The inventory increased, and the downstream consumption entered the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 21000 - 21500, and the short - term view is weak and volatile [20][22][23]. - **Tin**: The tin price was in a high - level shock under strong reality. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the demand was expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high levels around 260000 - 265000 based on inventory and import data inflection points [24][26]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market had a slight rebound, but the fundamentals changed little. The industry was over - supplied, and consumption was sluggish. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 118000 - 124000 [27][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market had a small increase at a low level, but the fundamentals remained weak. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. It is expected to operate weakly, with the main reference range of 12400 - 13000 [30][32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market continued to fluctuate narrowly, and the fundamentals still had pressure. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was difficult to boost in the off - season. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 56000 - 62000 [33][36]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price was in a weak and volatile state. The basis was weak, and the demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options, with hot - rolled coils and rebar respectively paying attention to the pressure at 3150 and 3050 yuan [38][39]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market had a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure was expected to increase in the off - season, and the iron water output was expected to decline. The 09 contract is considered bearish in the medium - long term, with the price range of 720 - 670 [40][42]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market had a weak and stable operation. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand had some resilience. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 800 - 850 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [42][45]. - **Coke**: The coke market had a third - round price cut, and there was an expectation of a fourth - round cut. The supply decreased marginally, and the demand was slightly recovered. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 1380 - 1430 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [47][48]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron market had a slight rebound, but the supply - demand pattern was loose. The cost was expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [49][51]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon market had a bottom - range shock. The supply pressure remained, and the cost was difficult to stabilize. It is recommended to short on rebounds [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The soybean meal market was oscillating strongly. The US soybean was supported by the rise of US soybean oil, and the domestic soybean meal was supported by the cost of US soybean. It is expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about chasing high [56][58]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig price was slightly oscillating. The demand was weak due to hot weather, and the supply - demand improvement was not good. The market had no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward drive was also weak [59][60]. - **Corn**: The corn price was in a high - level shock. The supply was tight in the short term, and the price was strong, but the upward momentum weakened after the price increase. In the long term, the supply - demand gap supported the price increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the wheat market and policy releases [61][62].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the market's expectations for future supply and demand remain pessimistic. It is expected that the short - term steel futures market will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. - The iron ore market is in a state of mixed long and short factors. It is expected that the iron ore futures price will show a narrow - range oscillation trend [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors such as weak demand and inventory pressure. It is expected that the short - term futures markets of coking coal and coke will oscillate [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets have limited fundamental driving forces. It is expected that the short - term prices of manganese silicon will mainly operate in a low - level oscillation, and the silicon iron prices will oscillate [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2986 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and trading volume remained low. National building material production increased slightly, inventory decline expanded, and apparent demand rebounded, indicating some resilience in current building material demand. It is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 fell to 695.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Port spot prices declined. Global iron ore shipments decreased, blast furnace operating rates and molten iron production continued to decline, and inventory increased. It is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures 2509 contract closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Some coal mines stopped production, the market trading atmosphere was cold, and coal mine inventory pressure was high. Demand from coking and steel enterprises weakened. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures 2509 contract closed at 1375 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices were stable. Coke enterprises' production enthusiasm was not high, and downstream procurement willingness was low. Steel mills' coke inventory was at a medium - to - high level, and procurement enthusiasm was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5556 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon increased in some areas. Although the weekly production of manganese silicon was at a low level in recent years, it had increased for four consecutive weeks. The mainstream steel tender pricing had not been announced. It is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5290 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. The spot price in Inner Mongolia increased. The terminal demand for steel and magnesium was weak during the rainy season. Some manufacturers in the main production areas had production - increasing expectations. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads and basis for various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron are provided, including the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Data on profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) are provided, including the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron over different time periods [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [25][28][29][32][33][35][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [40][42][44]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts show the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [45][49]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant professional qualifications [51][52].

Group 1: Reported Industries and Investment Ratings - There is no investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market is stabilizing amidst fluctuations, with potential for more international capital inflow into domestic risk assets. The short - term market is expected to be range - bound [2][3][6]. - The bond market sentiment is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the central bank's bond purchase situation at the end of the month, and appropriate long positions can be considered for treasury bond futures [7][9]. - Gold has a long - term upward trend, but short - term upward momentum is limited. Silver prices are supported but face short - term adjustment pressure [10][12][13]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to fluctuate, with the 08 contract in a narrow range [14][15]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". Zinc prices may be range - bound in the medium - term, and short - term outlook is weak. Tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be considered based on supply - side changes. Nickel prices are expected to be in a weak range - bound adjustment. Stainless steel prices are expected to be weak. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be in a weak range [20][24][27][30][35]. - Steel prices are in a weak range - bound state, and iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure in the medium - term. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to be volatile, and short - selling opportunities can be considered after rebounds. Silicon iron and manganese silicon prices are expected to be in a bottom - range oscillation [37][41][44][47][49][53]. - Meal prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, but there is pressure on the upside. Pig prices are expected to be in a small - range oscillation. Corn prices are expected to be in a high - level oscillation [54][56][57][58][59]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The main indices opened lower on Wednesday, with some turning positive in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, and the four major stock index futures contracts all rose. The basis discount of the main contracts is converging [2][3]. - News: The Lujiazui Forum announced eight major financial opening - up measures, and the China - Hong Kong signed a cooperation plan. Overseas, the Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate and adjusted the bond - buying reduction speed [3][4]. - Capital: On June 18, the A - share trading volume decreased slightly, with a net capital withdrawal of 770 million yuan from the central bank's open - market operations [5]. - Operation suggestion: The index has stable support below but faces resistance above. Short - term trading volume is not expanding, and it is recommended to sell put options with an exercise price of 5800 in July to earn premiums [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed with mixed performance. The 30 - year and 2 - year contracts rose, while the 10 - year and 5 - year contracts fell [7]. - Capital: The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 770 million yuan. The money market is stable, with the overnight repo rate slightly down and the seven - day repo rate slightly up [8]. - News: The central bank governor announced eight financial policies at the Lujiazui Forum [9]. - Operation suggestion: The market sentiment is relatively strong. Pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying situation at the end of the month. Long positions can be considered for treasury bond futures on dips, and positive - arbitrage strategies for TS2509 can be considered [9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market situation: The Fed maintained the interest rate, and the market's reaction was small. The dollar index rose slightly, and gold and silver prices fell [10][12]. - News: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue, and the Fed's attitude is hawkish, with internal differences [10][11]. - Capital: Gold and silver ETF holdings increased [13]. - Outlook: Gold has a long - term upward trend, but short - term upward momentum is limited. Silver prices are supported but face short - term adjustment pressure [12][13]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot price: As of June 17, the spot prices of major shipping companies are provided [14]. - Index: As of June 16, the SCFIS European line index rose 4.61%, and the US - West line index rose 27.18%. As of June 13, the SCFI composite index fell 6.79% [14]. - Fundamentals: As of June 16, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The demand in the eurozone and the US is provided by PMI data [14]. - Logic: The futures market is oscillating. The July quotes may affect the 08 contract [15]. - Operation suggestion: The 08 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 1900 - 2200 [15]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of June 18, the average price of electrolytic copper rose slightly, and the premium declined [16]. - Macro: The COMEX - LME premium is oscillating, and the impact of the Iran - Israel conflict on copper prices is limited [17]. - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in May increased, with a slight decline expected in June [18]. - Demand: The processing industry's operating rate is mixed, and the short - term demand has resilience but may face pressure in Q3 [19]. - Inventory: COMEX inventory is increasing, and domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [19]. - Logic: The combination of "strong reality and weak expectation" leads to copper price oscillation. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to demand pressure in Q3 [20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 77,000 - 80,000 [20]. Zinc - Spot: On June 18, the average price of zinc ingots rose, and the premium declined [20]. - Supply: The supply of zinc concentrates is increasing, and the production of refined zinc in May decreased slightly, with an increase expected in June [21][22]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has rebounded, but the consumption is entering the off - season, and the purchasing manager index has declined [23]. - Inventory: Domestic and LME inventories are decreasing [23]. - Logic: Zinc prices may be range - bound in the medium - term, and short - term outlook is weak. Pay attention to TC growth and downstream demand changes [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to be supported at 21,000 - 21,500 [24]. Tin - Spot: On June 18, the price of tin rose slightly, and the market trading was light [24]. - Supply: The import of tin ore and tin ingots in April changed, and the supply is currently tight [25]. - Demand and inventory: The solder operating rate in April increased, and the inventory situation is provided [25]. - Logic: The supply recovery is slow, and short - term prices are expected to be strongly volatile. Short - selling opportunities can be considered based on supply - side changes [26]. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the supply - side recovery and consider short - selling based on inventory and import data [26][27]. Nickel - Spot: As of June 18, the price of electrolytic nickel was stable, and the import premium rose [27]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, with a slight decline expected in June [27]. - Demand: The demand from electroplating and alloy industries is stable, while the demand from stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [27]. - Inventory: Overseas inventory is high, and domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [28]. - Logic: The market sentiment is low, and the price is expected to be in a weak range - bound adjustment [29]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 [29][30]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of June 18, the spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the basis declined [30]. - Raw materials: The supply of nickel ore is tight, and the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are weak [30]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel in June is expected to decrease slightly, with an increase in the 300 - series [31]. - Inventory: Social inventory is increasing, and warehouse receipts are decreasing [31]. - Logic: The market is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak. Pay attention to the production reduction rhythm of steel mills [32]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 [32]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of June 18, the price of lithium carbonate was stable, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [32]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate in May decreased slightly, with an increase expected in June. The supply is still abundant [33]. - Demand: The demand is relatively stable, but the off - season is approaching, and there is pressure [33]. - Inventory: The inventory is increasing across the board [34]. - Logic: The futures market is oscillating, and the short - term fundamental pressure remains. The price is expected to be in a weak range [35]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [35][36]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price is stable, and the basis is weakening [37]. - Supply: The production is decreasing, with a more significant reduction in finished products [37]. - Demand: The apparent demand is decreasing, affected by tariffs and the off - season [37]. - Inventory: The inventory is approaching the accumulation inflection point, with plate inventory increasing [37]. - View: The raw material price is weakening, and the steel price is expected to be weak. Short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [38]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [39]. - Futures: The main contract fell 0.78% [39]. - Basis: The basis of PB powder is 55 yuan/ton [39]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output and blast furnace operating rate decreased [39]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased [39]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's inventory increased [40]. - View: The short - term iron ore price is under pressure, and the medium - term outlook is bearish. The price range is expected to be 720 - 670 [41]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The futures price oscillated weakly, and the spot price was weakly stable [41]. - Supply: The domestic coal production decreased slightly, and the import coal price continued to decline [44]. - Demand: The coking and blast furnace production decreased, and the demand had some resilience [42][43][44]. - Inventory: The coal mine and port inventory increased, and the downstream inventory was at a medium level [43][44]. - View: The spot fundamental situation improved slightly. Short - selling on rebounds for the 2509 contract and long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage are recommended [44]. Coke - Futures and spot: The futures price oscillated strongly, and the spot price was weakly stable. There is still an expectation of price cuts [46][47]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke is negative [46]. - Supply: The coke production decreased [46]. - Demand: The coke demand decreased slightly [47]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased across the board [47]. - View: The spot market is still loose. Short - selling on rebounds for the 2509 contract and long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage are recommended [47]. Silicon Iron - Spot: The price in the main production areas was stable [48]. - Futures: The 09 contract fell 0.53% [48]. - Cost and profit: The cost is high, and the profit is negative [48]. - Supply: The production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries is weak [48][49]. - View: The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to coal price changes [49]. Manganese Silicon - Spot: The price in the main production areas was stable [50]. - Futures: The 09 contract fell 0.86% [50]. - Cost: The cost varies by region, and the profit is negative in some areas [50]. - Manganese ore: The price of manganese ore is stable, and the shipping volume and arrival volume changed [50][51]. - Supply: The production increased slightly [51]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry decreased [52]. - View: The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to coke price changes [53]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of soybean meal was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal increased slightly, and the trading volume was 1,500 tons [54]. - Fundamental news: Multiple policies and reports related to the agricultural market are provided [54][55]. - Outlook: The domestic meal prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but there is pressure on the upside [56]. Pig - Spot situation: The spot price oscillated, with a slight decline in the national average [57]. - Market data: The breeding profit decreased, and the slaughter weight decreased [57][58]. - Outlook: The pig price is expected to oscillate in a small range, with limited upward and downward space [58]. Corn - Spot price: The price in different regions was stable or increased slightly [59]. - Fundamental news: The inventory in the four northern ports decreased, and the shipping volume decreased [59]. - Outlook: The corn price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with limited upward momentum [59].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2981 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 下跌 9 元/吨，跌幅为 0.3%，持仓减少 2.37 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | | 格下跌 10 元/吨至 2910 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3070 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.25 | | | | 万吨。1-5 月份房地产投资同比降幅扩大，基建、制造业同比增幅收窄，国内钢材需求面临较大的回落压 | | | | 力。目前螺纹钢现实处于供需双弱局面，市场对于后期供需预期依然较为悲观。预计短期螺纹盘面仍低位 | | | | 整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 699 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌 5.5 | 窄幅震荡 | | | 元/吨，跌幅为 0.8%，成交 32 万手，减仓 ...