Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, with investment advice such as "oscillating repeatedly," "broadly oscillating," and "bullishly oscillating" [5][10][14]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the previous day's position was 271,889 lots, a decrease of 36,188 lots; spot prices of imported and domestic ores all increased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating due to sector sentiment resonance [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,250 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.09% and 1.29% respectively; spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month; in July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year; in late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, pig iron decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, and steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month; according to the weekly data of Steel Union on August 7, the output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 7.9 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 23.47 tons [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,830 yuan/ton and 5,820 yuan/ton respectively; the previous day's futures closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,100 yuan/ton and 6,112 yuan/ton respectively; spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,450 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 8, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Qinghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Gansu increased by 50 yuan/ton; the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the total manganese ore inventory increased by 8.83 tons month-on-month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Bullishly oscillating [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,106.5 yuan/ton and 1,681 yuan/ton, up 3.5% and 1.7% respectively; most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [19]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease; most spot prices remained unchanged [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (White stars represent a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows mixed trends with rising thread demand and production but falling hot-rolled coil demand and production, while inventory accumulates in both. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by "anti-involution" policies with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets also follow the "anti-involution" policy expectations and face pressure near previous highs [2][3][4] By Commodity Type Steel - Thread's apparent demand and production increased, inventory continued to accumulate; hot-rolled coil's apparent demand dropped significantly, production declined, and inventory also continued to accumulate. Iron water production declined slightly but remained high. Downstream industries showed weak domestic demand, while steel exports remained relatively high. Market sentiment was supported by factors such as narrowed PPI decline and marginal relaxation of the Beijing property market [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price rose slightly, and the basis fluctuated recently. Global shipments decreased slightly this period, with a large drop in Australian shipments and increases in Brazilian and non-mainstream country shipments. Domestic arrivals decreased this period but were slightly higher than last year. Terminal demand was weak, and blast furnace iron water decreased slightly. Steel mills had high profit ratios and limited motivation for active production cuts. The market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated upward. The sixth round of price increases improved profits, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory continued to decline, and traders had good purchasing intentions. The carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream iron water remained at a high level during the off-season. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated upward. Market sentiment was high regarding coal overproduction inspections. Mine production decreased, the spot auction market improved, and terminal inventory remained flat. Total inventory decreased, and production-side inventory continued to decline significantly. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose slightly. Iron water production remained above 240. Weekly production continued to increase but at a slower rate than expected, providing some support to the price. Manganese ore prices rose slightly this week, and it was expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. In July, supply exceeded demand, and on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, and pressure near previous highs should be noted [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose slightly. Iron water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly, and secondary demand declined marginally. Supply increased significantly, market trading was average, and on-balance-sheet inventory increased slightly. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, and pressure near previous highs should be noted [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market is generally bullish today. The supply - demand gap may gradually ease, and the black market will have short - term shock adjustments. The short - term supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is relatively loose, and there is an expectation of increased supply. Steel exports may weaken marginally, and the loose pattern of ferrosilicon may expand. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate around 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, the black commodity futures are generally bullish. The rebar closed at 3250 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3465 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; the iron ore main contract closed at 796.5 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke rose today, with coking coal leading the increase close to 3% [1] Market Analysis Demand - Last week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons from the previous week, but the profitability rate of steel mills increased by 3.03% to 68.4%. The hot metal output is still at a relatively high level, and steel mills have a weak willingness to actively reduce production. In the short term, it still supports the rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. During the recent alloy centralized steel procurement period, the market expects the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese to be further released, which has a certain positive impact on the market. However, northern steel mills are facing production restrictions due to the military parade, and the overall start - up situation of steel mills needs to be continuously tracked [1] Supply - Last week, the weekly output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 109,100 tons, an increase of 4700 tons from the previous week; the weekly output of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 195,825 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. Driven by the warming of the alloy market, the production profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises have been repaired, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers to start production has continued to rise. The supply has a further growth trend, which may have a negative impact on the market in the short term. However, there are still calls for "anti - involution", and the market expects the alloy output to shrink in the future. The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is facing a certain long - short game, and attention should be paid to the implementation of relevant policies [1] Cost - For ferrosilicon, with the news of price increases for raw materials such as semi - coke and electricity, the cost support for ferrosilicon has strengthened, which is positive for the futures price. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore market remained on the sidelines at the beginning of the week, with prices fluctuating at a high level and relatively stable; the spot price of coke remained stable, and the sixth round of price increase is still under negotiation. Overall, the cost side of silicomanganese is stable and slightly strong, which may support the market [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a shock - thinking approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation thinking approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating repeatedly [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [2] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, along with their fundamental data and macro - industry news, helping investors understand the market situation of these commodities [2][5][8] Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (-0.38%); yesterday's position was 308,077 hands, down 27,288 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [5] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,213 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.71%); for HC2510, it was 3,428 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.55%). Spot prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. There were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro & Industry News**: In late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month - on - month, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. On August 7, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also decreased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [12] - **Macro & Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions; a manganese mine enterprise signed a long - term contract; manganese ore inventory in ports changed [13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 declined. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different trends, and there were changes in basis and spreads [15] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions also had different trends [19] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

周周芝道 - 反内卷下大宗怎么看 20250810 摘要 美联储降息预期提前，流动性宽松或加速，尽管非农数据引发美股短暂 下跌，但市场迅速转向定价宽松，预示未来政策变化可能对市场产生重 要影响。 国内政策方面，预计 7 月底政治局会议后两个月内难有强劲内需政策出 台，最早或在 10 月底出现调整，美国经济数据和中美贸易谈判进展将 是关键观察点。 反内卷政策被市场解读为涨价逻辑，实则是走出通缩的重要环节，对大 宗商品市场产生显著影响，尤其国内黑色金属在长期熊市后出现反弹。 下半年大宗商品价格受海内外因素共振影响，国内政策短期内难有强刺 激，海外美联储货币政策宽松将影响全球流动性，需密切关注美国经济 数据和中美贸易谈判。 黄金市场在 5 月出现分水岭，结束 4 月牛市行情转为震荡调整，受全球 贸易框架清晰和权益市场向好影响，避险需求减弱，但中长期去美元化 逻辑仍支撑金价。 Q&A 上周全球大类资产的表现如何？ 上周全球大类资产的整体趋势是流动性驱动。中国股票市场风险偏好较高，利 率开始下降，债券市场利率也有所降低，这反映了基本面反弹和大宗商品持续 性反弹预期的降温。海外方面，美国经济软着陆的预期逐渐被流动性宽松所 ...

Group 1 - The market price of ordinary medium plates (20mm, Q235) in the black metal category was 3526.3 yuan/ton in late July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.8% and a month-on-month increase of 3.63% [1] - The highest price in the same period over the past five years was recorded in late July 2021, reaching 5688.1 yuan/ton [1]

Group 1 - The market price of hot-rolled ordinary plates (4.75—11.5mm, Q235) in the black metal category is reported to be 3474.3 yuan/ton as of late July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.89% and a month-on-month increase of 5.31% [1] - The highest price recorded in the same period over the past five years was in late July 2021, reaching 5931.7 yuan/ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market may shift to a weaker trend dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals, with geopolitical risk premiums significantly reduced [2]. - For precious metals, maintain a "buy - on - dips" strategy during the oscillation period and be cautious when prices are high [3]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and policy impacts, such as holding previous short positions for copper, waiting for short - selling opportunities for zinc, etc. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. After the US announced a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil (to be implemented in 21 days), the supply risk of Russian oil weakened due to positive signals from US - Russia talks. The post - peak - season supply - demand outlook is loose, and the market may turn pessimistic [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: SC continued to fall, and fuel - related futures followed the downward trend. The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals in August, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, while high - sulfur resources are relatively supported [22]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal**: For coke and coking coal, the prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with high volatility in the short term. Coke is bullish in the short term, while coking coal should be cautiously chased up [17][18]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices dropped, and the market mainly tracks macro - economic indicators. Hold previous short positions [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum slightly declined overnight. The apparent consumption is in the off - season, but the aluminum rod production has rebounded. It will oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The expiration of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The fundamentals are strong overseas and weak domestically. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound. Actively enter short positions [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices oscillated and closed higher. It is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [11]. - **Lead**: The supply of refined lead has regional differences. It is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to go long on dips [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Overnight precious metals oscillated strongly. Factors such as the US tariff, economic outlook concerns, and interest - rate cut expectations pushed up the gold price. Maintain a "buy - on - dips" strategy [3]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price of carbonate lithium rebounded with increased volume. After the price rebound, look for high - level short - selling positions [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures slightly rose. The supply pressure remains, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures slightly declined. It is expected to oscillate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Urea**: After the policy became clear, the urea market declined. The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [24]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, the methanol market is weak, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory. In the long term, pay attention to the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene futures price is weak. There is an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, and it is advisable to conduct monthly - spread trading [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, while caustic soda is under pressure in the long term [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by weak oil prices, PX and PTA prices declined. Pay attention to the possible valuation repair of PTA [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price oscillated and declined due to port inventory pressure [29]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Consider a long - position strategy for short - fiber in the medium term, while the long - term over - capacity of bottle - grade chips restricts the repair of processing margins [30]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices declined. Pay attention to the subsequent production - restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places, and the overall market sentiment is cautious [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with attention to policy - driven production - restriction progress [16]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean may have an early - harvest expectation. Before the tariff issue is clear, the soybean meal market will oscillate [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of soybean oil and palm oil is expected to oscillate. Maintain a "buy - on - dips" strategy [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil maintains a neutral view, while rapeseed meal futures may oscillate weakly [36]. - **Soybean No.1**: The soybean No.1 price rebounded from a low level. Pay attention to the weather in domestic production areas and policy guidance [37]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom. Pay attention to the supply in the circulation stage [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The live - pig futures price in the near - term is not optimistic, and pay attention to the capacity - reduction logic in the far - term [39]. - **Eggs**: Adopt a reverse - spread strategy on the futures market. The price in the first half of next year is more supported [40]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton has stabilized. Temporarily wait and see or conduct intraday trading [41]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures slightly rose. Temporarily wait and see [42]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Shipping companies are accelerating price cuts. The freight rate is expected to decline rapidly, and maintain a bearish view [21]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index futures closed down. Maintain an increased allocation to technology - growth and low - level consumer sectors [43]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The treasury bond futures oscillated. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [44].

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term steel rebar futures market is expected to move in a narrow range. The production has increased significantly, inventory growth has expanded, and apparent demand has recovered, but high steel exports have eased domestic supply pressure [1]. - The iron ore price is expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short term. Supply has decreased, demand has slightly changed, and the market is concerned about military parade - related production restrictions [1]. - Both coking coal and coke futures markets are expected to experience wide - range oscillations in the short term. For coking coal, supply - side inspections have affected market sentiment, and demand is strong. For coke, raw material prices are rising, and demand from steel mills and traders is good [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term. For manganese silicon, market news has affected sentiment, and demand from steel procurement provides some support. For ferrosilicon, cost provides support, and the marginal change in supply and demand is limited [1][3]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Steel Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3231 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (0.09%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 24,400 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable to lower, and trading volume declined. This week, national rebar production increased by 101,200 tons to 2.2118 million tons year - on - year, social inventory increased by 43,400 tons to 3.8848 million tons, factory inventory increased by 60,500 tons to 1.682 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 73,800 tons to 2.1079 million tons. In July 2025, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 793 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (0.2%) from the previous trading day, with 200,000 lots traded and a decrease of 23,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices mostly declined. Australian shipments decreased, Brazilian shipments fell from a high, and global iron ore shipments decreased. The iron - making water output decreased by 3,900 tons to 2.4032 million tons, and the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.29%. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 452,600 tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1229.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (0.7%), with an increase of 45,809 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas increased. Shanxi's coal mine over - production inspections affected market sentiment, and coking enterprises' demand was strong [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1744 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan/ton (0.66%), with an increase of 1,609 lots in positions. Spot prices at ports increased. Coking coal supply was favorable, and coke production and demand were both good [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened in an oscillatory manner. The main contract was reported at 6064 yuan/ton, a 0.75% month - on - month decrease, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 14,857 lots to 237,700 lots. Market prices in various regions were between 5800 - 6000 yuan/ton. Recent market news affected sentiment, and steel procurement provided some support [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened in an oscillatory manner. The main contract was reported at 5834 yuan/ton, a 1.22% month - on - month decrease, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 21,298 lots to 124,500 lots. Market prices in various regions were around 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton. Cost provided support, supply increased, and demand also showed some positive changes [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 73.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 spread was - 26.0, up 2.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties such as hot - rolled coils, iron ore, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 129.0, down 7.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 56.0, down 5.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai's rebar spot price was 3360.0, down 10.0; Beijing's was 3300.0, down 10.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties and regions [4]. - **Profit and Other Spreads**: Rebar's disk profit was 45.8, down 12.0; long - process profit was 145.6, down 4.6; short - process profit was 79.6, unchanged. Other spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. were also provided [4]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Included price trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 - 2025 [5][7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Included basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][20][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts of different contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][31][35][36][38][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][43][45][46]. - **Rebar Profits**: Included profit trend charts of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][48][52]. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry. He has many honors and relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has many titles and relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data and has relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam, with relevant qualification numbers [55].

Export Performance - From January to July 2025, China's exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year in USD terms, with a trade surplus of $683.51 billion[1] - In July 2025, exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while imports rose by 4.1%, leading to a monthly trade surplus of $98.24 billion[1] - ASEAN and EU contributed positively to July's export growth, with contributions of 2.6 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively[1] Import Trends - From January to July 2025, imports decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first half of the year[1] - In July 2025, imports showed a month-on-month increase of 1.8%, indicating a slight recovery in domestic demand[1] - Key imported raw materials like oil, black metals, and copper showed improved year-on-year performance, suggesting a recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure investment[1] Sector-Specific Insights - Mechanical and electrical products maintained export advantages, with integrated circuits, ships, and general machinery showing year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 15.5%, and 13.5%, respectively[1] - Light industrial products like bags and furniture saw improved export growth, although overall performance remained below the average export growth rate[1] - The automotive sector continued to show positive growth despite high export baselines in recent years[1] Economic Context - The resilience in export growth is attributed to ongoing US-China trade talks and improvements in the prices of certain export goods, which helped offset declines in export volumes[1] - Risks include the potential for increased economic recession in Europe and the US, as well as a complex international situation[1]