| G | M | E | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 新 | 单 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强现实与弱预期继续博弈，油价反弹偏空。从供需基本面看，当前呈现旺 | | 原油 | 反弹偏空 | 季强现实，全球原油库存处于低位，但随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，油价供给 | | | | 过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注供给端 OPEC 实际增产 | | | | 量与美国产量。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【510-530】 | | | | 成本端企稳，下游开工率提高，短线偏震荡，前期空单可止盈。成本端油 | | LPG | | 价企稳，美国丙烷处于消费淡季，供给相对充足；下游燃烧需求处于淡季， | | | 空单止盈 | 化工需求回升，PDH 开工率上升；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅 | | | | 下降，港口库存累库。策略：短线震荡，空单可止盈。PG【4050-4150】 | | | | 市场情绪好转，基本面暂无新利空出现，盘面在 7200 附近呈现一定支撑 | | | | 力度。供需偏弱，社会库存连续 3 周累库，月差、基差边际走弱。进口贸 | | L | 空头盘整 | 易商接盘态 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of crude oil, PVC,沪铜, urea, asphalt, PP, plastic,豆油,豆粕,焦煤,螺纹钢, and热卷 are expected to show different trends. Crude oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the near term; PVC is expected to be in a low - level oscillation;沪铜 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term; urea is expected to be in a short - term oscillation; asphalt is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices; PP and plastic are expected to be in low - level oscillations;豆油's basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation;豆粕 is expected to be strong in the short term;焦煤 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term;螺纹钢 is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend;热卷 is expected to run in an interval oscillation [3][6][11][14][15][17][18][20][22][23][25][27] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and concerns about supply disruptions have eased. However, the subsequent development of the situation needs attention [3] - Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventories are at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding expectations [3] - Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia, exceeding expectations. OPEC + is discussing suspending further production increases from October [3] - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years, and the market has reflected the accelerated production increase of OPEC +. The IEA has raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025 [3] - Concerns about trade negotiations and sanctions policies need attention, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile [3][5] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide has increased in some areas, and the PVC operating rate has increased, but downstream operating rates are low, and procurement is cautious [6] - India has postponed the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventories continue to increase, and the real estate market is still in adjustment [6] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [6] 沪铜 - The Fed's possible interest rate cut has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous market. Copper smelting processing fees have stopped falling and stabilized, and copper supply expectations have improved [11] - Electrolytic copper consumption has increased, but downstream procurement sentiment is weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased, and the spot premium has strengthened [11] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Fed's interest - rate decision [11] Carbonate Lithium - The price has risen due to market sentiment, but the actual impact on the fundamentals is small. Supply has increased, and inventories have continued to accumulate [12] - The price of spodumene has increased, providing cost support. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the new energy vehicle market has shown an upward trend [12][13] - The futures price is far higher than the spot price, and the market is dominated by sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, a correction is expected [13] Urea - The upstream has lowered prices to attract orders, and the downstream has replenished inventory at low prices, with good market transactions. This week's production has decreased, and next week's production is expected to increase [14] - Northern agricultural demand is coming to an end, and compound fertilizer factories' demand has increased slightly. Inventories have continued to decrease, but the rate has slowed down [14] - The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [14] Asphalt - The operating rate has increased but is still at a low level. July's production is expected to increase. Downstream operating rates have fluctuated, and shipments have decreased [15] - Inventories have increased slightly, and terminal project funds are restricted. Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and crude oil prices have risen [15][16] - It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [16] PP - The downstream operating rate has decreased, and US tariffs and import restrictions have affected the industry. Some overhaul devices have restarted, and the enterprise operating rate has increased [17] - Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand recovery is slow [17] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [17] Plastic - The operating rate has remained stable, and the downstream operating rate has increased slightly. US tariffs and import restrictions have an impact, but the cancellation of US ethane restrictions is beneficial [18] - New production capacity has been put into operation, and some overhaul devices have restarted. The off - season demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high [18][19] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [19] 豆油 - The price has risen, and if it breaks through the key resistance level, there may be room for further increase. The domestic oil mill operating rate and crushing volume are high, and the US soybean production outlook is optimistic [20] - International oil prices have risen, which may boost the demand for vegetable oils. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending may push up the price of palm oil and indirectly affect 豆油 [20] - The basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather changes [20] 豆粕 - The price has risen strongly, breaking through the 3000 mark. The US soybean crop conditions have improved, and domestic inventories are high, but there is a large gap in fourth - quarter import orders [21][22] - Consumption demand has increased, but the adjustment of the aquaculture industry and high - temperature weather may reduce demand [22] - The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter soybean procurement progress and the adjustment of the aquaculture industry [22] 焦煤 - The price has risen. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, and production at mines and coal - washing plants has increased. Mine inventories have decreased, and downstream inventories have increased [23] - The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a second - round increase. Downstream demand is strong, and steel mill profits have increased [23] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of Mongolian coal customs clearance and Indonesian export taxes [23] 螺纹钢 - The price has shown a "strong oscillation and then a decline" trend. Supply and demand have both weakened, with production and apparent demand decreasing. However, the profit per ton of steel is good, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored [25] - Demand has continued to weaken seasonally, and engineering funds are at a low level. Inventories are at a low level, and the contradiction is not prominent. Policy expectations and raw material strength provide cost support [25] - The price is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend, but attention should be paid to the possible correction of macro - optimistic expectations [25] 热卷 - The price has shown a "rising and then oscillating" trend. Production has increased marginally, but there may be a decline in the future. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, and export has improved marginally, but there are still risks [26][27] - Inventories have decreased slowly, and there is a risk of passive inventory accumulation in the off - season. The price is under pressure but also has strong support [27] - The price is expected to run in an interval oscillation, with an upper pressure of 3350 yuan/ton [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,372 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 4,433 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton or 1.09%. The spot basis in East China was 62 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - Due to unexpected production cuts at Zhejiang Petrochemical, shutdowns in Saudi Arabia due to power issues, and the likely postponement of the restart of Satellite Petrochemical's 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant, the supply increase at home and abroad fell short of expectations, leading to a rebound in EG prices [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 54 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and that of coal - based syngas EG was 41 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 553,000 tons, down 27,000 tons month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 494,000 tons, up 13,000 tons month - on - month. The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 96,000 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 45,000 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports are concentrated at 65,000 tons. Overall, the inventory has slightly increased [1]. - On the supply side, the peak maintenance period in China has passed, and domestic ethylene glycol production is on the rise. Overseas, the supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants gradually restart, but the actual supply recovery at home and abroad in July fell short of expectations. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, with high terminal inventory and low restocking willingness, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term supply - demand structure in July is still good, but the inventory accumulation pressure increases in late July [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the closing price of the main EG contract, the spot price in the East China market, and the spot basis in East China, along with their changes from the previous trading day [1]. - Figures related to the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and the spot basis in East China are provided [5][7] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profits of ethylene - based EG and coal - based syngas EG and their month - on - month changes are given [1]. - Figures about the gross profit of ethylene - based EG, coal - based syngas EG, naphtha - integrated EG, and methanol - based EG, as well as the total load and syngas - based load of ethylene glycol are presented [5][10][12] International Spread - The international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) is mentioned, and relevant figures are provided [5][21] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Figures related to the production and sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips are presented [5][22][24] Inventory Data - Inventory data from CCF and Longzhong, including the inventory at the main ports in East China, actual arrivals, planned arrivals, and changes in inventory are provided [1]. - Figures about the inventory at ethylene glycol ports in East China, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo, Jiangyin + Changzhou, Shanghai + Changshu, the raw material inventory days of MEG in Chinese polyester factories, and the daily outbound volume at ethylene glycol ports in East China are presented [5][33][36]

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-07-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7284 | -59 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 284912 | -78678 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 399614 | 8249 9月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 手) | 7221 | -42 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 182446 | -21932 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -27055 | -2627 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 426669 | 10876 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) | 0 | -7245 -2 | | 现货市场 | | 7946 | -10 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 896 | | ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-07-17 EB基差进一步走弱 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-206元/吨（-32）。纯苯港口库存16.40万吨（-1.00万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费157美元/吨 （+9美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费140美元/吨（+10美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差153.1美元/吨（+6.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-90元/吨（-35元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1860元/吨（+35），酚酮生产利润-667元/吨（-37），苯胺生产利润-171元/吨（-305）， 己二酸生产利润-1414元/吨（+9）。己内酰胺开工率95.72%（+0.00%），苯酚开工率81.00%（+3.00%），苯胺开工率 70.90%（+1.66%），己二酸开工率65.70%（+1.40%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差177元/吨（+2元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润33元/吨（+10元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存138500吨（+27000吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存45000吨（+6000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率79.2%（- ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that the marginal effects of external disturbances are decreasing, while domestic autonomy is significantly improving [1] - The chemical industry in China is experiencing low price indices, profit margins, and valuations, with expectations for positive changes in supply due to decreasing capital investment and policy emphasis on "anti-involution" [1] - The overall profitability of the petrochemical industry is under pressure, but there is a strong willingness among companies to improve profitability, which may positively influence market expectations for valuation recovery [1] Group 2 - The article reports that U.S. refined oil demand is down 1.1% year-on-year, with gasoline demand also decreasing by 1.6% [2][10] - OPEC's monthly report predicts a recovery in the global economy in the second half of the year, with Brazil, China, and India performing better than expected [2] - The article notes that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels, while gasoline inventory increased by 340,000 barrels [2][10] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market saw an increase in major indices, with the social services sector leading gains and steel sector lagging [3][8] - The financing balance in the capital market increased by 4.94 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments [3] - The article suggests that A-shares offer high investment value, particularly in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology innovation policies [3] Group 4 - The glass and soda ash markets are experiencing inventory pressure, with glass production inventory decreasing by 970,000 boxes, while soda ash inventory increased by 33,000 tons [4][14] - The article emphasizes the need for time to digest the current inventory levels in both glass and soda ash markets due to poor production profits [4][14] Group 5 - The article mentions that the maximum electricity load in China has reached a new record of 1.506 billion kilowatts, an increase of 5.5 million kilowatts compared to last year [7] - The article highlights the importance of China's role in the global supply chain and its commitment to ensuring stability and cooperation in the industry [6]

芳烃橡胶早报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 7/09 70.2 598 850 4750 6700 83.76 252.0 107 33 82.8 79.7 46058 25 0.40 2025/0 7/10 68.6 591 852 4735 6645 87.87 261.0 83 -19 82.8 79.7 44036 5 0.55 2025/0 7/11 70.4 584 837 4710 6645 68.51 253.0 145 -1 81.3 79.7 43274 10 0.40 2025/0 7/14 69.2 597 850 4735 6590 89.69 253.0 98 -82 81.3 79.7 43190 7 0.40 2025/0 7/15 68.7 584 836 4715 6590 89.69 252.0 147 -68 81.3 79.7 43190 8 0.45 变化 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The crude oil market rating for this week is adjusted from relatively strong to neutral oscillation [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell slightly. In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3%. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened. The rating is adjusted to neutral oscillation [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow suit. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widens. The FU crack is expected to continue its downward trend, while LU's unilateral movement follows crude oil [21] - **Asphalt**: The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly. Supply increase resilience needs further observation. Demand is weak but has recovery expectations. The price follows crude oil, but the upward drive is limited before demand improves [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists. Overseas prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the market is oscillating weakly [23] Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The impact of tariffs is emerging. The Fed is likely to maintain its current policy. Suggestions for trading include holding short positions or using option strategies [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. There is a negative feedback in the spot market during the off - season. There is short - term callback pressure [4] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, but the market is in an oversupply state. The upside is limited, and the futures are unlikely to fall sharply [5] - **Zinc**: Inventory is rising, indicating a supply - surplus and demand - weak situation. The market continues the idea of shorting on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The external market's inventory accumulation drags down the price. The domestic market is relatively resistant to decline, but there is a risk of following the external market down [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fell sharply. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season. There is still room for a rebound in Shanghai nickel, waiting for a better short - selling position [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin opened lower and oscillated. The inventory in London is falling. The domestic output is expected to improve marginally. The market continues the short - allocation direction [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is oscillating and rebounding. The inventory is rising. The upside is limited, and short positions can be gradually arranged [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices are rising. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices are rebounding. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term trend follows steel products, and the upward space is limited [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices follow steel products and may continue to rise in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. They follow the trend of rebar, with limited upward momentum [18][19] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices continued to fall. Demand is weak, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" concept. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [14] - **Glass**: The market is affected by the real - estate situation. The short - term follows the macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases require supply contraction [33] Chemicals - **Urea**: Supply is sufficient, and agricultural demand is weakening. Pay attention to export - quota policies [24] - **Methanol**: The main contract fluctuates narrowly. Inventory is rising, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The cost support is weakening. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3, and a negative monthly - spread is expected in Q4 [26] - **Styrene**: The cost - end is oscillating, and the supply is sufficient while demand is weak [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The futures are oscillating weakly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are weakening, and caustic - soda prices are oscillating strongly [29] - **PX & PTA**: Prices are oscillating. Pay attention to the repair of PTA's processing margin [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling. The short - term is bullish, with the risk of falling oil prices [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber is bullish, while bottle - chip's processing - margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is neutral - bearish. The domestic inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The market is oscillating [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is in an adjustment state. The long - term idea is to go long on dips [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The external market is in a consolidation phase. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - **Soybean No.1**: Pay attention to weather and policies in the short term [39] - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic market is oscillating [40] - **Live Pig**: The supply is abundant in the medium term, and the price has downward pressure [41] - **Egg**: The spot price is rebounding seasonally. The futures' upside is limited, and the long - term cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are rising due to weather concerns. The domestic market is affected by demand. The inventory is expected to be tight [43] - **Sugar**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [44] - **Apple**: The new - season apple price is increasing. The market is bearish on the production estimate [45] - **Timber**: The supply has some positive factors, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak [46] - **Pulp**: The price is rising slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe or trade short - term [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market shows a divergence. The short - term risk preference is oscillating slightly strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Prices are rising. The bond market should pay attention to the risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**: Spot prices are stable. The 08 contract will converge with the spot, while the 10 - contract's rise is due to multiple factors. It is not recommended to chase the rise [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Most of the varieties are expected to show a trend of weakening oscillations, while some are expected to be in a state of oscillation or oscillation with a slightly upward trend [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil futures continue to oscillate weakly. The US's 50 - day sanctions buffer period on Russia eases concerns about short - term supply reduction, and Russia's seaborne volume has increased. China's GDP growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, which may lead to fewer economic stimulus policies in the second half of the year, causing commodities to show a somewhat weak trend. The increase in China's crude oil processing volume in June has led to a significant increase in the output of petrochemicals, and the decline in crude oil has led the domestic chemical industry. The overall energy and chemical industry is facing downward pressure due to weak demand and falling costs [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. With the release of the OPEC + production increase negative factors since July, the high refinery operation during the peak demand season and the crude oil supply pressure are in a state of mutual restraint. After the weakening of geopolitical disturbances, oil prices are gradually under pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly. The LPG and civil gas volumes are still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the overall demand is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - valued stage. The increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread, and the current demand foundation for asphalt to rise is not solid. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are under great downward pressure. The increase in heavy oil supply and the decrease in power generation demand are relatively certain, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to oscillate weakly. Affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, the demand space is insufficient, but the current valuation is low and it follows the crude oil to fluctuate [9]. - **Methanol**: The domestic operating load continues to decline, and methanol oscillates. The supply contraction expectation is increasing, but the market's expectation of a reduction in methanol imports has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the coal supply is stable [19]. - **Urea**: The supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. The supply pressure is slightly relieved due to temporary maintenance in some areas, but the overall demand is weak, and it depends on exports to digest the inventory [20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: The future arrival volume of EG is limited, and it follows the raw materials to decline. The port inventory is at a low level, and the EG industry chain itself is in a state of oscillation in the short term, but the pattern is bearish in the long term due to new device production [14]. - **PX**: The sanctions of the US on Russia are less than expected, and PX follows the crude oil to decline. In the short term, the cost - side crude oil is likely to maintain a high - level consolidation, and the PX price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **PTA**: The cost declines, and PTA falls. The supply of PTA is sufficient next week, and downstream polyester factories plan to reduce production. However, the cost - side PX provides strong support, and the overall decline is expected to be limited [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The decline in crude oil drags down short - fiber, and the short - fiber's own basis remains stable. The short - fiber industry chain's current supply and demand are acceptable, and the 9 - month contract is at a discount to the spot. The short - fiber processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [15]. - **Bottle Chips**: The decline in crude oil drags down bottle chips, and the supply and demand of bottle chips themselves are acceptable. The bottle chip price follows the upstream raw materials to decline, but the processing fee has support and will remain stable [17]. - **PP**: The support from maintenance is limited, and PP oscillates downward. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and the demand side is weak. The short - term outlook is for oscillation [22]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The maintenance rate is decreasing, and plastic oscillates weakly. The raw material support is weak, the supply side has certain pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season [21]. - **Pure Benzene**: The confidence of benzene - styrene bulls is insufficient, and pure benzene declines. In the medium term, the pattern of pure benzene from July to August is acceptable, but the high inventory suppresses the rebound strength [11][12]. - **Benzene - Styrene**: The risk of a short - squeeze is decreasing, and benzene - styrene falls. The supply and demand of benzene - styrene are expected to weaken, and the inventory in ports is accumulating, but the overall inventory accumulation in Q3 is controllable [13][14]. - **PVC**: The sentiment cools down in stages, and PVC runs weakly. The macro and micro fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, and the production is expected to increase in the future while the demand is weak [24]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has reached the peak, and caustic soda oscillates. The support comes from the warm market sentiment, weak liquid chlorine price, and the discount of the caustic soda futures price, while the pressure comes from the peak of the spot price and the pessimistic supply - demand expectation [24]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.95 with a change of - 0.03, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 26 with a change of - 18 [26]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 193 with a change of 29, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [27]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 341 with a change of - 19, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 320 with a change of - 11 [28].