Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that non-ferrous metal stocks are experiencing a decline, with significant drops in companies such as Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Chifeng Gold, all falling over 4%, while Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth dropped over 2% [1] - Related ETFs in the non-ferrous and mining sectors have also seen a decline of approximately 2% [1] Group 2 - Specific ETF performance shows that the Non-Ferrous Leading ETF is priced at 0.850, down by 2.07%, while the Non-Ferrous Metal ETF Fund is at 1.616, down by 2.00% [2] - A brokerage report suggests that the non-ferrous metal sector will continue to face high market volatility risks in 2025 due to uncertainties from both demand and supply sides [2] - Emerging demand in the downstream structure of copper and aluminum is expected to support a long-term upward shift in the price center of non-ferrous metals [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic expectations are strong but the reality is weak. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and in September, exports were resilient. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. To address external pressure, China has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, while the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified. As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is affected by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector is constrained by long - term supply, the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term, the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention, agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, and short - term risks in precious metals should be guarded against [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic situation: In August, China's economic data weakened, with characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption". In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. Housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September. The government has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. On October 21, the A - share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. The AI computing hardware sector soared, while sectors such as coal, gas, and precious metals declined [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions: As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - US government shutdown: On October 15, the US Republican Party's temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate. The release of multiple economic data has been delayed. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] Commodity Market - Overall strategy: It is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The volatility of previously bullish sectors is high, and the risk of price fluctuations is large [4] - Black sector: Still affected by downstream demand expectations, attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation [4] - Non - ferrous sector: Long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently [4] - Energy sector: The medium - term supply is considered relatively loose. OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November [4] - Chemical sector: The "anti - involution" space of products such as methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention [4] - Agricultural products: Driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term, but need to wait for fundamental signals and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations [4] - Precious metals: The market has overreacted in the short term, and the lease rates of gold and silver are relatively high. Short - term price fluctuations should be guarded against, and opportunities to buy on dips can be grasped in the long term [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - Stock market: On October 21, the market strengthened throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. More stocks rose than fell, with over 4,600 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rising, and the trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.02% [6] - International news: On October 21, the Japanese cabinet led by Ishiba Shigeru resigned, and Takamachi Sanae was elected as the new prime minister. European leaders signed a joint statement supporting an immediate cease - fire and peace talks, while the Russian foreign minister said the "immediate cease - fire" plan violated previous agreements [3][6] - Commodity news: On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,200 per ounce, with an intraday decline of 3.8%, the largest decline in four years [4]

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the price fluctuations of upstream non - ferrous metals and energy, and also presents the latest developments in the production and service industries, as well as the current situation of different industrial chains [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Middle - level Event Overview Production Industry - The Guangdong Provincial People's Government Office issued the "Action Plan for High - quality Development of the Manufacturing Industry Empowered by Artificial Intelligence in Guangdong Province (2025 - 2027)", supporting enterprises to use various intelligent computing resources for industrial model development, promoting the construction of edge data centers, and emphasizing core software research and the synergy between AI and industrial Internet [1]. Service Industry - The Civil Aviation Administration announced the winter - spring flight schedule for 2025, starting from October 26, with domestic flight times contracting for two consecutive seasons, with a 1.0% decline in 2024 and a 1.8% decline in 2025. From October 15, global shipping giants collectively raised prices, with freight rates on multiple routes increasing by 600 - 2000 US dollars per container [1]. 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Non - ferrous metals: Gold prices have declined. Energy: International oil prices have continued to fall. Chemicals: PTA prices have slightly decreased [2]. Middle - stream - Chemicals: PX operating rate is at a high level. Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2][3]. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have declined. Services: The number of domestic flights has increased [4]. 3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On October 21, the spot price of corn was 2180.0 yuan/ton (- 0.26% year - on - year), eggs were 6.0 yuan/kg (1.69% year - on - year), palm oil was 9306.0 yuan/ton (- 0.60% year - on - year), cotton was 14741.8 yuan/ton (0.35% year - on - year), and the average wholesale price of pork was 17.7 yuan/kg (- 2.80% year - on - year) [39]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On October 21, the spot price of copper was 85788.3 yuan/ton (- 0.25% year - on - year), zinc was 21922.0 yuan/ton (- 1.24% year - on - year), aluminum was 20943.3 yuan/ton (0.14% year - on - year), nickel was 122850.0 yuan/ton (0.23% year - on - year), and another type of aluminum was 17075.0 yuan/ton (0.63% year - on - year) [39]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On October 20, the spot price of rebar was 3131.8 yuan/ton (- 0.29% year - on - year), iron ore was 792.9 yuan/ton (- 1.26% year - on - year), and wire rod was 3295.0 yuan/ton (- 0.68% year - on - year) [39]. - **Non - Metals**: On October 21, the spot price of glass was 14.6 yuan/square meter (- 6.82% year - on - year), natural rubber was 14516.7 yuan/ton (0.58% year - on - year), and the China Plastics City Price Index was 779.6 (- 0.75% year - on - year) [39]. - **Energy**: On October 21, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 57.0 US dollars/barrel (- 4.15% year - on - year), Brent crude oil was 61.0 US dollars/barrel (- 3.65% year - on - year), liquefied natural gas was 3820.0 yuan/ton (2.85% year - on - year), and coal was 797.0 yuan/ton (0.76% year - on - year) [39]. - **Chemicals**: On October 21, the spot price of PTA was 4369.8 yuan/ton (- 2.02% year - on - year), polyethylene was 7076.7 yuan/ton (- 0.79% year - on - year), urea was 1570.0 yuan/ton (- 0.63% year - on - year), and soda ash was 1203.6 yuan/ton (- 1.23% year - on - year) [39]. - **Real Estate**: On October 21, the national cement price index was 133.7 (- 0.80% year - on - year), the building materials composite index was 111.5 (- 0.60% year - on - year), and the national concrete price index was 91.2 (- 0.18% year - on - year) [39].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is influenced by the optimistic sentiment of the China - US trade agreement, with the US dollar index rebounding and global risk appetite rising. The domestic economic growth is accelerating, and the market is generally optimistic about the China - US trade negotiations. The increase in domestic policy support boosts domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term; bonds are expected to be volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors, with some in a state of shock and some with clear short - term trends [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US dollar rebounds due to the optimistic sentiment of the China - US trade agreement, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, and the market is optimistic about trade negotiations. Policy support increases, and the short - term macro - upward drive strengthens. For assets, stocks are strongly volatile in the short term and can be cautiously bought; bonds are volatile and should be cautiously observed; different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as combustible ice, fruit chains, and construction machinery, the domestic stock market rises significantly. With economic growth and policy support, the short - term macro - upward drive strengthens. It is recommended to cautiously buy in the short term [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market falls at night. Due to the rise of the US dollar and profit - taking, the short - term is in a high - level correction, but the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term long positions should be reduced on rallies, and medium - and long - term positions should be bought on dips [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets continue to fluctuate. Trade conflicts are expected to ease, and there are expectations for policies, which support prices. However, the fundamentals are weak, demand is weak, and it is expected to weaken further after late October. Supply is likely to decline. There is no trending market, and the upward and downward space is limited in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is flat, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The iron - water production is expected to decline further. Steel mills replenish stocks slightly. Global shipments increase, and arrivals decrease. The port inventory rises. It is recommended to treat it with a range - bound thinking [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices decline slightly, and the futures prices fluctuate. The demand for ferroalloys decreases. The supply of silicon manganese increases slightly. The prices of both are expected to continue to fluctuate in the range [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract fluctuates in the range. Supply is in the capacity - release period, and demand increases slightly. It should be treated with a bearish view in the medium and long term [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract fluctuates in the range. Supply increases, and demand is weak after the "Golden September and Silver October". It is recommended to operate in the short - term range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper price fluctuates and falls, affected by the weak commodity atmosphere and the decline of gold. The US copper inventory is high, and the domestic de - stocking is less than expected. Although the Indonesian mine is shut down, it will resume production next year, and the supply is expected to increase. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rises slightly. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, and the domestic fundamentals are poor. The inventory decline is slow. The London inventory decreases. It is expected to fluctuate in the range in the short term [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight in the short term, and the demand improvement is limited. The price is at a high level, which suppresses consumption. The inventory decreases this week. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract falls slightly. The supply and demand both increase, the inventory decreases, and the market is expected to be strongly volatile [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract falls. The production reaches a new high, and the inventory does not accumulate during the wet season. The 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse - receipt digestion. It is expected to fluctuate in the range [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract falls. The warehouse - receipt quantity increases, and there is pressure from the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. The supply is high, and the demand is low. It is necessary to wait for the implementation of the state - reserve news [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market is weak, and the port market has a weakening basis. The short - term supply decreases, the demand for olefins is high, and the inventory decreases slightly. However, the traditional downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure will increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15]. - **PP**: The market price falls in part. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand, the inventory is high, and the cost support weakens. It is necessary to focus on the recovery of downstream demand [16]. - **LLDPE**: The price of polyethylene is adjusted. The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is differentiated. The cost support weakens, and the market is under pressure in the short term [16]. - **Urea**: The urea market is weak. The production is expected to increase, the demand for compound fertilizers is ending, the agricultural demand is warming up, and the export is shrinking. The short - term market may rise slightly after a stalemate, but there is still a risk of decline [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The rise of US soybeans pauses. The sowing in Brazil is progressing smoothly, and the weather in Argentina is good. The CBOT soybean assets are mainly in a wait - and - see state. The trade between China and the US is the key factor for the future market [18][19]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The oil - mill operating rate is high, the soybean meal delivery is urgent, and the terminal procurement is cautious. The oil - mill profit is in deficit, and the willingness to support the price is strong. There is a supply gap risk in the domestic market before the South American new soybeans are listed. The soybean meal is expected to stabilize after a decline, and the rapeseed meal is mainly affected by the soybean meal [19]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil market is in the peak season, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil provides consumption expectations. The rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the spot basis is stable [19]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic palm oil arrives in large quantities, the inventory increases, and the basis is weak. The production and export growth rates in Malaysia decline [20]. - **Corn**: The corn market price is strong, the new - season corn is on the market, the downstream demand is positive, the price is close to the cost line, and farmers' reluctance to sell may increase [20]. - **Pigs**: After the festival, the production and inventory reduction accelerate, the pig price falls to a new low, and the profit is in deficit. There is support for restocking in some areas, and the supply is expected to decrease in late October, which will stabilize the price. Unless the demand increases seasonally, it is difficult for the price to recover significantly [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The commodity market may fluctuate in the short - term due to uncertainties such as Trump's trade policy, Sino - US trade negotiations, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical situations. The precious metals sector has strong potential, while other sectors have different trends [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance Review - The commodity market declined by 1.14% last week. Only the precious metals sector rose by 10.76%, while the non - ferrous, agricultural products, black, and energy - chemical sectors fell by 1.07%, 1.52%, 1.66%, and 3.43% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased with a narrowing margin, and the precious metals and energy - chemical sectors had significant volatility increases. The overall market scale increased, with only the non - ferrous sector having net capital outflows, mainly concentrated in Shanghai copper [2][6]. - Among specific varieties, gold, silver, and soybean No.1 had the highest gains of 10.9%, 10.53%, and 2.03% respectively, while glass, crude oil, and fuel oil had the largest declines of 9.28%, 6.34%, and 5.54% respectively [6]. 2. Outlook for Different Sectors Precious Metals - The uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations strengthens the sector's hedging properties. Powell's statement that balance - sheet reduction may end in the next few months strengthens the expectation of monetary easing, leading to a significant rise in the sector. The actual overall position of gold is at a low level, with potential for further growth. Short - term fluctuations may intensify [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - The Fed's October Beige Book shows weakening consumer spending and a labor shortage. Domestically, the economy continues to improve. The raw material supply is tight, and inventory increases, with overall supply and demand remaining relatively loose. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, waiting for a clear macro - environment [3]. Black Metals - The apparent demand for rebar has recovered significantly after the holiday but is still weak year - on - year. Production continues to decline, and inventory has decreased. The high - level hot metal has slightly declined, and downstream carrying capacity is insufficient. With the contraction of steel mill profits, the pressure for steel mills to cut production increases, and the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain strengthens. The price of coking coal may be prone to rise and difficult to fall. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, with coking coal and coke relatively stronger [3]. Energy - Oil prices continued to decline last week. The US refinery utilization rate dropped sharply, causing crude oil inventory to increase by 352,400 barrels more than expected. The three major institutions' October reports raised the supply - demand surplus for this year and next year by 210,000 barrels per day and 460,000 barrels per day respectively. The easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation and Sino - US trade games have increased market risk - aversion. Oil prices may continue to be weak in the short - term [3]. Chemicals - For polyester products, the industrial chain may continue to be weak due to weak oil prices and weakening demand expectations. For building materials, PVC domestic demand is stable, but exports face policy pressure, and cost support is not obvious. Glass has high intermediate inventory pressure and continues to be under pressure [4]. Agricultural Products - The sales progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, and China has not purchased US new - season soybeans, putting pressure on US soybean prices. Domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, and soybean meal inventory is high. If Sino - US trade relations do not improve, soybean meal may fluctuate downward. The pattern of strong oil and weak meal may continue [4]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs had significant gains, with most having a weekly return rate of around 11%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 21.8244 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.76%. The trading volume increased by 204.56%. Other commodity funds such as energy - chemical, agricultural product, and non - ferrous metal ETFs had different performance trends [38].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market saw mixed performance last week, with major indices showing more declines than gains, while the overall market style was relatively favorable. The average daily trading volume across the market was 21,928.52 billion yuan [1] - In terms of industry performance, the banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors performed relatively well, while the automotive, media, and electronics sectors lagged behind [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - The core CPI continued to rise year-on-year, with September CPI at -0.3% and PPI at -2.3%, indicating a need for price support. The rise in core CPI was driven by consumer subsidy policies and rising gold prices [2] - There is strong market expectation for the effects of "anti-involution" policies, with industrial product prices increasing since July, particularly in raw materials and upstream sectors. Recent policy measures include easing real estate purchase restrictions in major cities and the launch of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools [2] - September export data exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in dollar terms, while social financing data showed a slight decline in growth to 8.7% [2] Group 3: Policy Developments - The macroeconomic adjustment remains positive, with fiscal measures being ramped up to support effective investment. The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support investment [3] - Upcoming events such as the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the Politburo meeting are expected to provide further policy guidance [3] - A new round of trade negotiations between China and the U.S. is anticipated, with discussions scheduled for October 24, indicating a potentially optimistic outlook for trade relations [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current market is characterized by high levels and increased uncertainty, leading to a cautious trading environment. However, there is potential for a new market trend to emerge following a period of reduced trading volume [4] - The upcoming policy window in mid to late October, including potential growth-stabilizing policies and international meetings, may provide favorable conditions for investment [4] - The focus should be on third-quarter earnings reports, particularly in sectors such as AI, renewable energy, and financial services, which are expected to show resilience [5] Group 5: Thematic Directions - Continued attention should be paid to sectors benefiting from U.S.-China trade tensions and the "14th Five-Year Plan," particularly in emerging technologies and regional economic development strategies [6]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries have decreased or remained unchanged, driven by a decline in inflation expectations [2][13][19]. Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with the volatility of major indices showing mixed trends. The trading activity in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electric vehicles, steel, electronics, automotive, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [3][25]. - The volatility of major indices, including the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300, has increased, while the volatility of the ChiNext and STAR Market indices has decreased. Sectors like electronics, automotive, and chemicals have seen a rapid increase in volatility [3][31]. Analyst Predictions - Analysts have continued to raise net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has increased across various sectors, including retail, finance, light industry, and public utilities [4][50]. - The net profit forecasts for major indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 have been adjusted upwards for 2025 and 2026, while the ChiNext index has seen mixed adjustments [4][23][24]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with an overall net sell-off in A-shares. The trading volume ratio in sectors like non-ferrous metals, electronics, and banking has increased, while it has decreased in pharmaceuticals, machinery, and communications [5][29]. - Northbound trading has shown a net buying trend in sectors such as electronics, automotive, and electric vehicles, while net selling has occurred in computing, pharmaceuticals, and communications [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has dropped to its lowest point since mid-September 2025, with a net sell-off of 12.812 billion yuan. The main net buying has been in sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, and pharmaceuticals, while net selling has occurred in TMT, finance, and automotive sectors [6][35]. Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to increase, with significant net subscriptions in ETFs, primarily driven by individual investors. Active equity funds have mainly increased their positions in electronics, automotive, and media sectors, while reducing exposure in communications, finance, and real estate [6][8][52]. - The newly established equity fund scale has rebounded, with both active and passive funds seeing an increase in size. ETFs related to financials, non-ferrous metals, and electronics have been the main net buyers, while those related to communications, chemicals, and transportation have seen net selling [6][53].

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed [2][13] - The nominal and real yields of 10-year US Treasuries have decreased or remained unchanged, with inflation expectations also falling [2][19] - Offshore dollar liquidity has tightened, while domestic interbank liquidity remains balanced and slightly loose [2][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with the volatility of major indices showing mixed trends [3][25] - Trading heat in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electric vehicles, steel, electronics, automotive, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [3][25] - The volatility of the communication and electronics sectors remains above the 80th historical percentile [3][31] Analyst Predictions - Analysts have continued to raise net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026 [4][43] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 has increased [4][43] - Sectors such as retail, finance, light industry, and public utilities have seen upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [4][43][44] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with overall net selling of A-shares [5][29] - In the top 10 active stocks, the trading volume ratio for sectors like non-ferrous metals, electronics, and banking has increased [5][32] - Northbound trading has shown net buying in sectors such as electronics, automotive, and electric vehicles, while net selling occurred in computing, pharmaceuticals, and communications [5][33] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has dropped to its lowest point since mid-September 2025 [6][35] - The main net buying in margin financing has been in sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, and pharmaceuticals [6][38] - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, steel, and public utilities has increased [6][38] Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to rise, with net subscriptions in ETFs persisting [8][45] - Actively managed equity funds have mainly increased positions in sectors like electronics, automotive, and media [8][46] - New fund establishment has seen a rebound, with both actively and passively managed funds experiencing growth [8][50]

Core Viewpoint - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index showed fluctuations with mixed performance among constituent stocks, highlighting the cyclical nature of certain industries and the significance of the PPI rebound in 2023 [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The index saw leading gains from stocks such as Bluestar Technology, Cangge Mining, and Jinfat Technology, while stocks like HeBang Bio and Salt Lake Co. experienced declines [1] - The analysis from招商证券 indicates that the PPI rebound is a key characteristic of "6 and 1" years, with strong performance in cyclical industries such as resources, finance, and real estate [1] Group 2: ETF and Sector Composition - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) closely tracks the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, with a significant focus on the basic chemical industry at 61.93% and the petroleum and petrochemical industry at 30.84% [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include WanHua Chemical, China Petroleum, Salt Lake Co., Sinopec, CNOOC, Juhua Co., Cangge Mining, Jinfat Technology, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy, collectively accounting for 55.12% of the index [1]

Report Information - Report date: October 20, 2025 [3] - Report title: Full Variety Spread Daily Report [3] Core Data Summary Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: Spot price 5558, futures price 5430, basis 128, basis rate 2.36%, historical quantile 73.10% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price 5718, historical quantile 65.20% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price 3200, futures price 3037, basis 66, basis rate 2.06%, historical quantile 66.70% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price 3270, futures price 3204, historical quantile 46.10% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Spot price (equivalent price) 832, futures price 771, basis 61, basis rate 7.91%, historical quantile 49.60% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Spot price (equivalent price) 1676, futures price 1603, basis - 73, basis rate - 4.38%, historical quantile 26.49% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price (equivalent price) 1257, futures price 1179, basis 78, basis rate 6.62%, historical quantile 45.50% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: Spot price 84775, futures price 84390, basis 385, basis rate 0.46%, historical quantile 82.08% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2512)**: Spot price 20950, futures price 20910, basis 40, basis rate 0.19%, historical quantile 68.12% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price 2921, futures price 2800, basis 121, historical quantile 60.13% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: Spot price 21815, futures price 21780, basis - 35, basis rate - 0.16%, historical quantile 52.29% [1] - **Tin (SN2511)**: Spot price 281000, futures price 280750, basis 250, basis rate 0.09%, historical quantile 57.70% [1] - **Nickel (NI251)**: Spot price 121550, futures price 121160, basis 390, basis rate 0.32%, historical quantile 76.87% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2512)**: Spot price 13170, futures price 12630, basis 540, basis rate 4.28%, historical quantile 92.25% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: Spot price 75700, futures price 73350, basis - 2350, basis rate - 3.10%, historical quantile 23.12% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Spot price 9350, futures price 920, historical quantile 61.14% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price 2870, futures price 2868, basis 2, basis rate 0.07%, historical quantile 35.00% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price 8410, futures price 8256, basis 154, basis rate 1.87%, historical quantile 32.10% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price 9308, futures price 9230, basis - 78, basis rate - 0.84%, historical quantile 7.00% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price 2470, futures price 2306, basis 164, basis rate 7.11%, historical quantile 74.00% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: Spot price 10160, futures price 9861, basis 299, basis rate 3.03%, historical quantile 80.30% [1] - **Corn (C2601)**: Spot price 2130, futures price 2117, basis 13, basis rate 0.61%, historical quantile 49.80% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Spot price 2550, futures price 2374, basis 176, basis rate 7.41%, historical quantile 83.10% [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: Spot price 11670, futures price 11250, basis - 420, basis rate - 3.60%, historical quantile 30.90% [1] - **Eggs (JD2511)**: Spot price 3000, futures price 2805, basis 195, basis rate 6.95%, historical quantile 48.00% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price 13335, futures price 1182, basis 14517, basis rate 8.86%, historical quantile 79.80% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price 5810, futures price 5412, basis 398, basis rate 7.35%, historical quantile 70.60% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price 8625, futures price 8600, basis - 25, basis rate - 0.29%, historical quantile 16.20% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price 11420, futures price 9600, basis - 1820, basis rate - 15.94%, historical quantile 19.30% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX601)**: Spot price 6432, futures price 6292, basis 140, basis rate 2.20%, historical quantile 12.40% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price 4402, futures price 4330, basis - 72, basis rate - 2.04%, historical quantile 20.00% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price 4075, futures price 4003, basis 72, basis rate 1.05%, historical quantile 75.10% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF512)**: Spot price 6290, futures price 6036, basis 254, basis rate 2.20%, historical quantile 74.10% [1] - **Styrene (EB2511)**: Spot price 6495, futures price 6483, basis 12, basis rate 0.97%, historical quantile 75.10% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price 2272, futures price 2272, basis 0, basis rate 0.0%, historical quantile 53.90% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price 1602, futures price 1560, basis - 42, basis rate - 2.25%, historical quantile 5.40% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price 6975, futures price 6874, basis 101, basis rate 1.86%, historical quantile 56.80% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price 6565, futures price 6551, basis 14, basis rate 0.21%, historical quantile 48.10% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price 4688, futures price 4600, basis 88, basis rate 1.88%, historical quantile 32.50% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price 2593.8, futures price 2344, basis 249.8, basis rate 5.41%, historical quantile 70.90% [1] - **LPG (PG2512)**: Spot price 4498, futures price 4220, basis 278, basis rate 6.21%, historical quantile 47.80% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: Spot price 3380, futures price 3135, basis 245, basis rate 7.25%, historical quantile 93.40% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2512)**: Spot price 11000, futures price 10925, basis 75, basis rate 0.68%, historical quantile 61.40% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price 1095, futures price 1072, basis 23, basis rate 2.10%, historical quantile 66.59% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price 1209, futures price 1154, basis 55, basis rate 4.77%, historical quantile 18.90% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price 14695, futures price 14250, basis - 445, basis rate - 3.12%, historical quantile 73.33% [1] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2512.CFE**: Spot price 4514.2, futures price 4485.2, basis - 29, basis rate - 0.65%, historical quantile 13.90% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Spot price 2967.8, futures price 2963, basis - 4.8, basis rate - 0.16%, historical quantile 35.10% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Spot price 6863.2, futures price 7016.1, basis - 152.9, basis rate - 2.23%, historical quantile 0.50% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Spot price 7020.8, futures price 7185.5, basis - 164.7, basis rate - 2.35%, historical quantile 7.80% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: Spot price 102.37, futures price 99.94, basis - 0.02, basis rate - 0.02%, historical quantile 20.00% [1] - **5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: Spot price 105.72, futures price 99.39, basis - 0.04, basis rate - 0.04%, historical quantile 21.80% [1] - **10 - year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: Spot price 108.10, futures price 100.19, basis 0.05, basis rate 0.09%, historical quantile 21.10% [1] - **30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: Spot price 129.31, futures price 114.48, basis 0.28, basis rate 0.25%, historical quantile 37.50% [1]