Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Strategies - Glass investment strategy: Weak and oscillating [2] - Soda ash investment strategy: Weak and oscillating [2] - Silicomanganese investment strategy: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon investment strategy: Oscillating [4] Group 2: Core Views - Market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating downward; glass and soda ash markets are weak and oscillating due to cautious downstream procurement; the dual - silicon market is weak due to unmet peak - season demand [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Glass - Yesterday, the glass futures market opened lower and oscillated weakly. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand. Supply is generally stable, consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream inventory replenishment, inventory has decreased but overall change is limited, and fundamentals suppress prices. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and peak - season demand [1] Soda Ash - Yesterday, the soda ash futures market opened lower and oscillated weakly. Downstream procurement is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. There are still supply - demand contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether speculative demand weakens. The futures premium suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to new - capacity投产 progress and inventory changes [1] Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the coking coal futures tumbled, and the silicomanganese futures followed suit. The main contract closed at 5,820 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous day.节前 market transactions were sluggish. This week, production continued to decline, hot - metal production increased slightly, downstream demand remained resilient, and alloy - enterprise inventory increased significantly. In the long run, supply - demand is relatively loose. Considering the futures discount to the spot, prices are expected to oscillate and follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to regional policies and cost - support changes [3] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon futures contract closed at 5,610 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market sentiment was average, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. This week, production and operating rates rebounded slightly, demand increased slightly with hot - metal production, factory inventory decreased month - on - month, and inventory was at a medium level compared to the same period. Currently, there are few supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to changes in coal and electricity prices at the cost end and regional policies [3] Group 4: Figures - The report includes figures such as Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot price trends, futures contract closing - price trends, basis trends, cost and profit trends of various products, and spot price trends of raw materials like iron ore, coke, and coking coal [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall "oscillating" outlook for the black building materials industry, indicating that the prices of sector varieties are expected to remain oscillating in the short - term [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the pre - holiday restocking logic has ended, the high iron - water production still supports the demand for furnace materials, which in turn supports the steel price at the cost end. As the fourth quarter approaches, the market's expectations for the upcoming important meetings are increasing, so it is expected that the negative feedback in the industrial chain is difficult to form. The prices of sector varieties are expected to remain oscillating before the holiday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the shipments from overseas mines are stable. However, the arrival rhythm is affected by typhoons. Considering the end of pre - holiday restocking demand and the need to further verify the peak - season demand for building materials, the upside space is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, but the steel mills' restocking is nearly over, and the pressure on finished - product prices leads to a contraction in electric - furnace profits. It is expected that the price will oscillate following the finished products in the short - term [1]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: Although the steel mills' restocking is over, the rigid demand is strong under the high - iron - water background. The demand for coke is still supported, and the raw - coal price provides strong support. There are still expectations for price increases in the market, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the coal mine production is expected to decline slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal is suspended, so the overall supply pressure is not large. After the coke price increase is implemented and the profit pressure is relieved, the production can still remain at a high level. The fundamentals of coking coal are strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short - term, the high production cost and the peak - season demand expectation support the price of manganese silicon. However, the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still downward space for the price center after the peak season [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term peak - season expectation and the firm cost support the price of silicon iron. But the market's supply - demand relationship tends to be loose, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2]. 3.4 Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [2]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed. It is expected to follow macro - changes and operate with wide - range oscillations. In the long - term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [2]. 3.6 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The spot market trading of steel is generally weak. The restocking before the holiday is coming to an end, and the speculative intention is weak. The inventory of the five major steel products has started to decline before the holiday, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The market is still cautious about the peak - season demand and worried about the post - holiday inventory pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to be under pressure, but the downward space is limited due to the upcoming important meetings and cost support [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipments from overseas mines have recovered slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined slightly. The spot market quotation has fallen, and the port trading has recovered, but the pre - holiday trading is generally weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, but the steel mills' restocking is nearly over, and the electric - furnace profit has shrunk. It is expected to follow the finished products' price in the short - term [9]. - **Coke**: The futures price is running weakly due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds. The supply is slightly decreasing, and the demand is still supported by high iron - water production. Some steel mills have accepted the price increase, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price is running weakly due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds. The supply pressure is not large during the holiday, and the fundamentals are strongly supported. The price is expected to remain oscillating [11][12]. - **Glass**: The demand is weak in reality, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction and is expected to oscillate downward [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - changes and oscillate widely. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The downstream restocking demand is nearly over, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term cost and demand expectations support the price, but there is downward space after the peak season [16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market is pessimistic about the post - holiday demand. The futures price is running weakly. The short - term demand expectation and cost support the price, but there is downward pressure after the peak season [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1293 yuan/ton to 1278 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1200 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% - The main basis decreased from - 93 yuan/ton to - 88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.38% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13] - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 115.50 yuan/ton, and the production profit has rebounded from a historical low [16] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 89.12% [19] - The weekly output of soda ash is 77.69 tons, including 43.01 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output at a historical high [22] - From 2023 to 2025, there are large - scale new production capacity plans for soda ash, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons and an actual new capacity of 920 tons [23] 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 113.40% [26] - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable [29] - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline [2] 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 165.15 tons, a decrease of 5.93% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash has changed over the years. In 2024E, the supply - demand difference is 157 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 17.59%, a production growth rate of 13.07%, an apparent supply growth rate of 11.69%, and a total demand growth rate of 7.10% [37] 6. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be positive**: The peak maintenance period is coming this year, and the output is expected to decline [3] - **Likely to be negative**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Researchers include Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass, Soda Ash) [4] 3. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash industry: The short - term contradiction has been alleviated, but the fundamental driving force is still insufficient. The supply is still in surplus, and the oversupply situation has not been effectively improved. The disk price is expected to oscillate weakly, mainly driven by macro - market sentiment [8] - Glass industry: The fundamentals are in a weak balance. The disk price is driven by macro - market sentiment and will gradually return to the fundamental logic, and may oscillate weakly in the short term [10] 5. Summary by Directory 5.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions 5.1.1 Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On September 29, the price of the main soda ash futures SA601 contract oscillated downward. The closing price was 1,273 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%, and the daily position decreased by 51,954 lots [7] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is at a high level, with weekly production rising to 776,900 tons, the highest this year, a 4.19% month - on - month increase. There is no maintenance news, and production is expected to further increase. Demand is good, with total shipments reaching 881,000 tons, a 11.86% month - on - month increase. Downstream, the daily melting volume of float glass is stable at 160,200 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass is 88,700 tons, with a potential production increase in the future. The factory inventory has decreased to 1.6515 million tons [8] 5.1.2 Glass - **Market Data**: The prices of FG601 and FG603 contracts decreased on September 29. FG601 closed at 1,228 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline; FG603 closed at 1,286 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton, a 2.13% decline [7] - **Fundamentals**: The production of float and photovoltaic glass is stable. The market was previously driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, but without relevant policies, the sentiment cooled down. In mid - September, the "anti - involution" sentiment reignited, and the spot price increased slightly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to support the glass price [9][10] 5.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [14][15][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was fair, but prices continued to fluctuate weakly. The Politburo meeting determined the date of the Fourth Plenary Session, and the National Development and Reform Commission is actively promoting a new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan, which boosted market sentiment. In the black - series market, trading volume declined slightly near the holiday, and the market remained cautious about holiday - period demand. Although there was a slight rebound in exports this week, the market remained in a weak oscillation. The demand for both hot - rolled coils and rebar was weak, showing prominent characteristics of a non - booming peak season. With the approach of the Fourth Plenary Session, the futures market will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern, and steel prices still face a risk of decline. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For iron ore, short - term hot - metal production is expected to remain strong. After the end of steel mills' restocking, demand contradictions will mainly be reflected in the downstream. If the situation of finished products weakens after the holiday, ore prices may adjust downward. It is necessary to focus on downstream demand and inventory conditions after the holiday [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the current demand and supply environment, the market may first experience a downward adjustment to release bearish sentiment, and then prices may rise following the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Manganese silicon may follow the black - series market, and its price may be driven by potential disruptions in the manganese ore market. Ferrosilicon is also likely to follow the black - series market, with relatively low trading value [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. After the holiday, attention should be paid to whether there are improvements in the supply - demand structure. If production cuts occur in Southwest China during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may decrease, and the valuation of far - month contracts may increase [14]. - For polysilicon, the current futures price has fallen below the spot price. There has been no progress in capacity integration and downstream price - passing, and the market lacks upward momentum. There is still pressure on the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises [16]. - For glass, the futures market showed wide - range oscillations. Terminal demand remained weak, and downstream purchasing was cautious. Some regions saw inventory reduction, while others faced inventory accumulation. It is advisable to take a slightly bullish view in the short term and focus on subsequent policy trends [19]. - For soda ash, the domestic market remained stable with minor oscillations. Production was generally stable, and demand was tepid. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate in the short term with limited price fluctuations [21]. Summary by Category Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils) Market Information - Rebar: The closing price of the main contract was 3097 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2412 tons to 270238 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 49906 lots to 1.926639 million lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 0 and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coils: The closing price of the main contract was 3289 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (- 0.72%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 28314 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 6738 lots to 1.38447 million lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 30 and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Near the holiday, trading volume declined slightly, and the market was cautious about holiday - period demand. Rebar production was basically the same as last week, pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and inventory pressure was marginally relieved. Hot - rolled coil production declined, apparent demand was moderate, and inventory slightly accumulated. Overall, demand for both was weak, and the market was in a weakly oscillating pattern. Steel prices still faced a risk of decline, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) closed at 784.00 yuan/ton, down 0.76% (- 6.00 yuan), with an open - interest change of - 34937 lots to 474000 lots. The weighted open interest was 784200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.93 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.31% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: Overseas iron - ore shipments remained stable at a high level. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased slightly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - term arrival volume decreased. - Demand: The average daily hot - metal production was 242.36 tons, up 1.34 tons. Steel mills' profitability declined further. - Inventory: Port inventory increased, and steel mills' imported - ore inventory increased significantly. Before the National Day, steel mills' restocking was almost over. - In the short term, hot - metal production is expected to remain strong. After restocking ends, demand contradictions will mainly be in the downstream. If finished - product conditions weaken after the holiday, ore prices may adjust downward. It is recommended to operate with light positions before the holiday and focus on downstream demand and inventory after the holiday [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - Manganese silicon: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.48% at 5820 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 170 yuan/ton. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract (SF511) closed down 0.88% at 5610 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The black - series market may first experience a downward adjustment to release bearish sentiment and then rise following the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, but low manganese - ore port inventory and relatively strong prices may drive its price if the black - series market strengthens. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black - series market, with relatively low trading value [9][10]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8610 yuan/ton, down 3.91% (- 350 yuan). The weighted open - interest decreased by 39748 lots to 442464 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with bases of 690 and 290 yuan/ton respectively [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Before the holiday, some funds left the market, weakening the futures price. If production cuts occur in Southwest China during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may decrease, and the valuation of far - month contracts may increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply - demand improvements after the holiday [13][14]. Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (PS2511) closed at 51280 yuan/ton, down 0.36% (- 185 yuan). The weighted open - interest decreased by 10968 lots to 229306 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material remained unchanged, with a basis of 1270 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - The futures price has fallen below the spot price. There has been no progress in capacity integration and downstream price - passing, lacking upward momentum. There is still pressure on the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 1228 yuan/ton, down 1.92% (- 24 yuan). The spot prices in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 1553000 cases (- 2.55%) to 59355000 cases. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 64705 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 43782 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1278 yuan/ton, down 1.16% (- 15 yuan). The spot price in Shahe decreased by 15 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises decreased by 104100 tons (- 2.55%) to 1651500 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 14607 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 24990 lots [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The futures market oscillated widely. Terminal demand was weak, and downstream purchasing was cautious. Some regions saw inventory reduction, while others faced accumulation. It is advisable to take a slightly bullish view in the short term and focus on policy trends [19]. - Soda ash: The domestic market remained stable with minor oscillations. Production was generally stable, and demand was tepid. It is expected to continue oscillating in the short term with limited price fluctuations [21].

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Core Viewpoint - The supply-side contraction expectations and seasonal demand improvement have slowed the decline in soda ash prices, but the weak market structure is unlikely to change due to high supply and inventory levels [1][2]. Supply and Production - Current production levels of soda ash remain high, with a weekly output of 776,900 tons as of September 25, marking a historical peak [2]. - New soda ash capacity additions are expected in the fourth quarter, with a 2.8 million ton natural soda project by Yuanxing Energy successfully ignited, potentially increasing capacity by over 7% [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan to regulate cement and flat glass production capacity, prohibiting new capacity while promoting the exit of outdated capacity [1]. Raw Material Prices - Raw material prices have remained firm, but recent trends indicate a potential decline in coal prices due to improved supply conditions as previously shut coal mines resume production [2]. - The current theoretical profit for soda ash production using the lithium carbonate method is -77.5 yuan/ton, while the ammonia soda method is -37.20 yuan/ton, indicating a low profit environment [1]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for heavy soda ash is primarily driven by the glass industry, with recent improvements in photovoltaic glass production supporting a slight recovery in demand [3]. - However, the demand for heavy soda ash has softened due to a slowdown in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass and reduced purchasing enthusiasm from downstream component manufacturers [3]. - The real estate market is experiencing an adjustment phase, with new construction area and investment declining, which may limit the demand for soda ash [3]. Inventory Levels - As of September 25, domestic soda ash inventory stood at 1.6515 million tons, a decrease of 216,000 tons or 11.56% from the previous period, although inventory levels remain high compared to previous years [2][3]. - Despite the reduction in inventory, the overall supply situation remains high, and the upcoming natural soda project is expected to exacerbate supply pressures [3].

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Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures first rose and then fell. The closing price of the main contract SA2601 decreased by 1.90% compared to the previous week, reaching 1293 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1200 yuan/ton, a 2.04% drop from the previous week. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain at a high level next week, with an estimated output of 770,000 tons and an operating rate of 89%. The demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average, mainly on - demand, with pre - holiday inventory replenishment and more low - price transactions. The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1651,500 tons as of September 25, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, but still at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1318 yuan/ton to 1293 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.90%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1225 yuan/ton to 1200 yuan/ton, a 2.04% decrease. The main basis remained unchanged at - 93 yuan/ton [8]. II. Soda Ash Spot Market 1. Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 115.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [18]. 2. Soda Ash Operating Rate, Capacity, and Output - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 89.12%. The weekly output was 776,900 tons, including 430,100 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The heavy - production rate was 55.36% [21][24][26]. 3. Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [27]. III. Fundamental Analysis - Demand 1. Soda Ash Production - Sales Ratio - The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash was 113.40% [30]. 2. Soda Ash Downstream Demand - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 76.01% was stable [33]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1651,500 tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [40]. V. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [41].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1200元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1293元/吨，基差为-93元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.15万吨，较前一周减少5.93%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。SA2601：1250-1300区间操作 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下 ...