纯碱行业检修预期再掀市场波澜。纯碱期货价格在创新低下行后近日再度走强，联动现货端氛围好转。 但在笔者看来，本轮检修减量对市场供需的实际冲击较弱，同时期现商本轮采购后提升了现货持货量， 也变相强化了后市的定价话语权，阶段性减量检修仍难改纯碱行业供需错配的格局。 从隆众资讯和卓创资讯发布的碱厂检修计划看，5月检修安排较为密集：江苏实联120万吨产能，预计5 月6日起检修25天；河南金山5月初部分装置轮检，预计10天；江苏井神5月7日起1台锅炉有检修计划； 青海昆仑150万吨产能，计划5月18日起检修5天；山东海化部分装置、江苏华昌70万吨产能5月存检修计 划，具体未定。后续徐州丰成60万吨产能、江苏昆山80万吨产能检修或在6月执行。以目前5月减量计划 看，涉及减量规模或在20余万吨，周度平均影响约6万余吨。近两周产量水平约在75.5万吨附近，按目 前基数减量后，5月周产量均值或略高于3月实际水平。 近期厂家陆续公布未来检修计划，从检修性质看多为年度计划内检修。随着检修计划公布数量逐步增 多，市场开始预期后续检修集中减量可能带来现货压力阶段性缓解，进而带动厂家库存下降。部分碱厂 此前为促进签单有价格调降动作，盘面价 ...

2025-05-12 纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总 研究员：于小栋 从业资格号：F3081787 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019360 01 纯碱市场综述 目录 目 录 周度市场综述 目 录 C O N T E N T S 01 纯碱市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 纯碱市场价格 05 纯碱供应 06 纯碱需求 07 纯碱库存 08 仓单数量/有效预报 09 地产相关数据 01 玻璃市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 玻璃市场价格 05 玻璃供应 06 玻璃需求 07 玻璃库存 纯碱 玻璃 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项 目 | 备 注 | 当 期 | 环 比 | 下期 (E) | 下下期 (E) | 思 路 | | | | 总产量（万吨） | | 74.07 | -0.79 | 65.43 | 61.66 | | | | 供 应 | 重质产量（万吨） | | 40.79 | -0.34 | 36.03 | 33.96 | 假期后检修逐步开启，产量自高位 ...

截至2025年5月9日当周，纯碱期货主力合约收于1305元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持287671 手。 机构观点汇总： 宁证期货：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存上升，原片企业操作围绕出货为主。国内纯碱市场延续稳定，纯碱 部分装置按计划停车、减量，供应震荡下行，下游需求表现谨慎，多保持刚需补库，低价成交为主。预 计纯碱09合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑1310一线，建议观望。 建信期货：短期来看，5月检修计划的逐步落地或将引发阶段性供应紧张，叠加光伏需求的韧性支撑， 纯碱期货存在估值修复机会；从中长期视角，产能过剩的基本面未发生根本改变，浮法玻璃需求疲软与 库存高位累积仍是压制价格的核心因素。综合判断，受减产预期驱动，5月纯碱期货价格或迎来短暂小 幅反弹，但缺乏持续上涨动力。预计5月中下旬，随着检修利好逐渐消退、供需矛盾再度凸显，价格将 重新步入下行通道。 消息面回顾： 本周纯碱库存170.13万吨，环比增加2.91万吨，涨幅1.74%。纯碱企业待发订单14+天，呈现增加趋势， 订单接至下旬，有企业到月底。 截至5月8日，华北地区氨碱法生产成本1300元/吨，相较去年10月原盐价格高点的1720元/吨，下降420 ...

Group 1 - The overall domestic soda ash market remains stable, with slight declines in some regions. Prices for light soda ash in East China are between 1340-1530 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices range from 1420-1500 CNY/ton [2] - Supply side shows an increasing number of manufacturers undergoing maintenance and production cuts, leading to a decrease in industry operating rates, with expectations of further supply contraction in the future [2][5] - Demand is weak as downstream companies are not performing well, leading to low purchasing enthusiasm. Most companies prioritize digesting existing inventory, resulting in market transactions primarily consisting of small orders and low-price deals [2][5] Group 2 - On May 9, the main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1318 CNY/ton and closed at 1305 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.38%. The highest price during the day was 1329 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1300 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,221,435 contracts, an increase of 17,878 contracts [3] - The decline in soda ash futures prices is primarily driven by overall market sentiment and significant drops in downstream products. The fundamental situation for soda ash has not shown notable improvement, and while some supply-side maintenance has begun, it is insufficient to reverse the oversupply situation [3][5] Group 3 - The supply contraction trend is becoming more evident, and although demand is generally weak, some essential purchases are starting to emerge as inventory is gradually digested, providing some support to the market [5] - It is expected that short-term market prices will remain stable, with the possibility of slight increases in regions with relatively tight supply-demand structures. Future attention should be paid to the execution of new maintenance plans and changes in actual downstream purchasing rhythms [5]

Core Insights - Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical announced a reduction maintenance for its soda ash facility starting April 29, expected to last about half a month, which will significantly impact the supply-demand dynamics in the soda ash industry [1] - The soda ash market is experiencing rising demand due to economic recovery, but companies are facing challenges from increasing raw material costs and stricter environmental regulations [1][2] - Other soda ash producers are also adjusting their operations, with several facilities running at reduced capacity, indicating a potential tightening of supply and possible price increases [2][3] Industry Dynamics - The soda ash market is currently seeing price fluctuations, with light soda ash prices ranging from 1050 to 1670 RMB/ton and heavy soda ash prices from 1050 to 1700 RMB/ton [6] - Recent maintenance activities and pre-holiday stockpiling have led to a temporary price increase, but the market is now stabilizing with reduced trading activity [6][7] - The overall operating rate in the soda ash industry is approximately 89.50%, showing a slight decrease from the previous week [15] Supply Chain Adjustments - Various soda ash facilities are undergoing maintenance or operating at reduced capacity, including Shandong Haihua and Shaanxi Xinghua, which are both running at lower loads [2][14] - The total inventory of soda ash in the domestic market has increased to 1.7 million tons, up from 1.67 million tons the previous week [17] - The production profit for the soda ash industry has seen a slight increase, with the profit from the soda ash production process using the ammonia-soda method rising to 50 RMB/ton [10][11] Price Trends - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a narrow range of price adjustments in the short term due to a tightening supply situation, while demand remains relatively stable [7] - The price comparison across different regions shows variations, with some areas experiencing price increases while others see declines [9][20] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of limited upward price movement due to stable demand [7][22]

然橡胶产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月8日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月7日 | 5月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14700 | 14700 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -110 | -115 | 5 | 4.35% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14400 | 14450 | -50 | -0.35% | | | 非标价差 | -410 | -365 | -45 | -12.33% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | રૂડે રેટ | 53.05 | 0.50 | 0.94% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 59.50 | 59.25 | 0.25 | 0.42% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 13000 | 13000 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡 ...

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/5/8 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/4/30 | 2025/5/6 | 2025/5/7 | | | | 2025/4/30 | 2025/5/6 | 2025/5/7 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1220.0 | 1198.0 | 1198.0 | -22.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1082.0 | 1071.0 | 1074.0 | -8.0 | 3.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1207.0 | 1194.0 | 1194.0 | -13.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1131.0 | 1117.0 | 1115.0 | -16.0 | -2.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1173.0 | 1173.0 | 1168.0 | ...

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/5/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/4/29 2025/4/30 2025/5/6 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | 2025/4/29 | 2025/4/30 | 2025/5/6 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1220.0 | 1220.0 | 1198.0 | -22.0 | -22.0 | FG09合约 | 1108.0 | 1082.0 | 1071.0 | -37.0 | -11.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1207.0 | 1207.0 | 1194.0 | -13.0 | -13.0 | FG05合约 | 1074.0 | 1031.0 | 1038.0 | -36.0 | 7.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1173.0 | 1173.0 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market currently has strong real - world fundamentals and rising macro - optimistic expectations, which support the lower limit of finished products. However, the weak demand expectation and the tendency of new orders to decline limit the upward space of the futures market. Without unexpected positive news, the futures market may fluctuate in the near term [3]. - The iron ore market is trading on the expectation of future demand rather than the current situation of strong supply and demand. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the weakening of exports may intensify industrial chain contradictions [17]. - The coal - coke market is in a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. In the long - term, due to coal supply guarantee and crude steel reduction expectations, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. Although the pressure of high supply of silicon manganese has been alleviated, supply still exceeds demand compared with weak downstream demand. The production of silicon iron has increased slightly this week, and the large increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the rise of the futures price [54]. - The soda ash market is expected to have more maintenance in May, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3126, 3048, and 3098 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3239, 3200, and 3217 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were between 3180 - 3344 yuan/ton on May 7, 2025 [9]. Market Analysis - From a macro - industrial perspective, Sino - US trade negotiations seem to have new progress, and the macro - optimistic expectation has risen. The real - world fundamentals are strong, but the future demand expectation is weak, and the market may face pressure from weakening demand and falling raw material costs [3]. Iron Ore Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 681, 768, and 708 respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao, such as PB powder, were also provided [18]. Market Analysis - The current supply and demand of iron ore are both strong, but the market is trading on future expectations. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the negative feedback pressure on steel mills to reduce production is increasing [17]. Coal - Coke Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs and basis in different regions and contracts were provided, as well as the coking profit on the futures market [35]. Market Analysis - In the short - term, the supply and demand of coal - coke are both strong. In the long - term, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. Ferroalloy Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the silicon iron and silicon manganese basis, futures spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided, as well as the prices of related raw materials and the number of warehouse receipts [55][56]. Market Analysis - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. The supply of silicon manganese still exceeds demand, and the increase in silicon iron production and warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [54]. Soda Ash Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the soda ash futures prices, spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided [71][72]. Market Analysis - In May, there are expected to be more maintenance activities, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. Glass Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the glass futures prices, spreads, and basis in different regions were provided, as well as the daily sales data in different regions [98][99]. Market Analysis - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-07 市场矛盾不足，矿价弱势震荡 玻璃纯碱：现货成交弱稳，玻碱高开低走 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面高开偏弱震荡。现货方面，市场整体成交弱稳，环比假期有所好转。 供需与逻辑：近期点火、放水产线均有，点火产线尚未出货的情况下，供应压力或可小幅缓解，玻璃库存小幅去 化。然而由于地产和深加工需求恢复不足，导致补库力度和持续性不强，价格缺乏向上空间，后期高温梅雨季节 不利于玻璃储存，所以企业出货降库的意向或将较前期更加强烈。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面高开震荡偏弱。现货方面，市场需求一般，刚需采购为主，华北和华中地区轻重碱 价格环比下跌10-30元/吨。 供需与逻辑：近期纯碱产量稳步提升，维持宽松状态，需求相对稳定，低价补库。其中，光伏增量放缓，纯碱需 求提升空间有限，去库压力仍然偏大。预计后期会不间断的出现碱厂降负检修情况，以缓解纯碱累库压力。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据情况、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：成本中枢下移，双硅再创新低 市场分析 硅锰方面：随着市场情绪的进一步走弱 ...