Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon industry is undergoing a critical period of structural transformation, with market dynamics closely monitored due to its significance in the photovoltaic supply chain [1]. Market Performance - The average transaction price of polysilicon remained stable week-on-week, with n-type re-investment material priced between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY per ton, averaging 53,200 CNY per ton, and n-type granular silicon priced between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY per ton, averaging 50,500 CNY per ton [1]. - Despite an increase in the number of mainstream signing companies from 2-3 to 5-6, overall market transactions remain relatively sluggish, indicating weak terminal demand [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand outlook for the fourth quarter is weak, with limited growth in battery component orders and stable operating rates for silicon wafer companies, leading to steady overall demand for upstream silicon materials [1]. - In the first three quarters of the year, the domestic polysilicon industry has reduced inventory by approximately 12,000 tons, but there was a slight inventory accumulation of about 12,000 tons in September [2]. - The polysilicon production is expected to peak in October, with a slight increase in output due to the resumption of production by three companies, followed by a gradual decline in November and December [2]. Production Forecast - The domestic polysilicon production for the fourth quarter is projected to be around 382,000 tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 3.0% [2]. - By 2025, the annual domestic polysilicon production is expected to be approximately 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3%, indicating a slight oversupply compared to demand [2]. Company Performance - Companies in the upstream sector are showing signs of performance recovery due to the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts and stabilization of industry prices [2]. - For instance, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited reported an unaudited profit of approximately 960 million CNY in its photovoltaic materials business for the third quarter of 2025, recovering from a loss of about 1.81 billion CNY in the same period last year [2]. Pricing and Cost Analysis - In the third quarter of 2025, GCL-Poly's average external selling price for granular silicon (including tax) was 42.12 CNY per kilogram, a 30% increase from 32.93 CNY per kilogram in the second quarter [3]. - The average production cash cost for granular silicon (including R&D costs) decreased to 24.16 CNY per kilogram from 25.31 CNY per kilogram in the previous quarter, reflecting a reduction of approximately 5 percentage points [3].

Core Insights - The southwestern region of China is set to halt approximately 320,000 tons of polysilicon production, which accounts for nearly 10% of the country's total capacity, due to rising electricity prices during the dry season and recent policy meetings [1][2] - This shutdown is expected to trigger a chain reaction throughout the photovoltaic industry, marking a new phase of restructuring and potential recovery [1][2] Summary by Sections Polysilicon Production and Regional Impact - The southwestern region, rich in hydropower resources, has attracted numerous polysilicon manufacturers, creating a complete photovoltaic industry chain [1] - Seasonal fluctuations in hydropower supply have led to significant instability in energy availability, with electricity prices rising by 30%-50% during the dry season, directly impacting production costs [1][2] Economic and Employment Effects - The planned shutdown will have a substantial impact on local economies, as polysilicon companies are key providers of jobs and tax revenue [2] - The gradual approach to halting production aims to maintain operational continuity while addressing the challenging market conditions [2] Industry Overcapacity and Price Decline - The polysilicon industry is currently facing severe overcapacity, with domestic production capacity reaching 3.5 million tons against a projected global demand of only 1.5 million tons by 2026, resulting in a surplus exceeding 100% [3] - High inventory levels, estimated at 400,000 to 500,000 tons, are putting further pressure on market prices, which have dropped significantly from previous highs [3][4] Technological Advancements and Competitive Landscape - Rapid technological advancements are leading to the exit of high-cost production capacities, with leading companies achieving production costs below 40,000 yuan per ton, while outdated capacities exceed 60,000 yuan per ton [4] - The ongoing price war has severely impacted profitability, with many companies forecasting a decline in net profits of over 50% [4] Policy and Regulatory Changes - Recent government initiatives aim to address blind expansion and unhealthy competition in the photovoltaic sector, focusing on eliminating below-cost sales and phasing out outdated capacities [5][6] - New energy consumption standards are expected to reduce effective polysilicon capacity from 3.5 million tons to approximately 2.4 million tons, a decrease of about 31.4% [6] Industry Restructuring and Future Outlook - The industry is undergoing significant consolidation, with weaker companies seeking acquisition by stronger players, enhancing overall competitiveness [6][7] - The exit of high-cost capacities is anticipated to alleviate supply-demand imbalances and create market opportunities for leading firms like GCL-Poly and Tongwei [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report On October 22, industrial silicon fluctuated with a slight upward trend, while polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the demand side faces the expectation of production control in the crystalline silicon industry. The overhaul of silicone and the limited supply of aluminum alloy comprehensively suppress the market, with strong downward driving forces in the fundamentals. A photovoltaic conference has been held in Beijing for several days, and there are reports that the state will regulate the photovoltaic production capacity. The market is waiting for the conference results, and short - term policy expectations provide strong bottom support. However, the continuous increase in production scheduling and poor downstream acceptance have not resolved the high - pressure inventory situation. Currently, the market is full of news about the photovoltaic conference and the progress of stockpiling, and speculative sentiment has returned. The market fluctuates strongly, so it is recommended to enter the market cautiously. Attention should be paid to the expectation adjustment after the policy is implemented and the actual situation of production reduction and sales control in the silicon material sector [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research View - On October 22, the main contract of industrial silicon 2511 closed at 8,485 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.06% and a reduction of 10,964 lots in positions to 96,600 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot was 9,523 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 235 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract of polysilicon 2511 closed at 50,310 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.55% and a reduction of 3,221 lots in positions to 49,016 lots. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot changed from a discount to a premium of 1,640 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8,485 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 150 yuan/ton to 8,615 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot price: Most prices remained stable, with only a few showing changes. For example, the price of 421 silicon in some regions decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and the price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon in Xinjiang decreased by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 113 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 835 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 3,000 tons [3]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 1,780 yuan/ton to 50,860 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot price: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 1,640 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 10 tons, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 14,000 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [3]. Organic Silicon - Spot price: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,300 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][18]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts show the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][22]. 3.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][28][34]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research, focusing on different fields such as precious metals, aluminum - silicon, and lithium - nickel [36][37].

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 现货价格：多晶硅 n ...

Group 1: Tianqi Lithium Industry - Tianqi Lithium announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Chengdu Tianqi will jointly invest with several professional investment institutions to establish a partnership enterprise with a total subscription amount of 500 million yuan [1] - Chengdu Tianqi will contribute 250 million yuan, accounting for 50% of the total subscription amount, and the partnership will not be included in the company's consolidated financial statements [1] - This investment aims to deepen cooperation with the new materials and new energy industry chain, exploring opportunities for circular development while implementing a vertical integration strategy [1] Group 2: Ganfeng Lithium Industry - Ganfeng Lithium's Vice President Fu Lihua plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 40,000 shares, representing up to 0.002% of the company's total share capital [2] - The reason for the reduction is to repay a loan related to equity incentives, and the shares are sourced from the company's equity incentive grants [2] - The planned reduction is considered a routine personal financial operation, with minimal impact on the company's fundamentals and stock price [2] Group 3: Silicon Industry - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch reported that the market for polysilicon is currently weak on both supply and demand sides, with stable prices [3] - Demand is affected by weak expectations for photovoltaic installations in the fourth quarter, leading to limited increases in battery component orders [3] - Although some companies have resumed production, most have reached their order limits, resulting in only a few supply orders being executed at market prices [3]

Group 1: Tianqi Lithium Industry - Tianqi Lithium announced the establishment of a partnership with investment institutions, with a total subscription amount of 500 million yuan, where its wholly-owned subsidiary Chengdu Tianqi will contribute 250 million yuan, accounting for 50% of the total [1] - This investment aims to deepen cooperation with the new materials and new energy industry chain, providing new business expansion opportunities and aligning with the company's vertical integration strategy [1] - The establishment of the investment fund reflects the company's commitment to exploring circular development opportunities while maintaining risk control and seeking external growth [1] Group 2: Ganfeng Lithium Industry - Ganfeng Lithium's Vice President plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 40,000 shares, representing 0.002% of the company's total share capital, primarily to repay equity incentive loans [2] - The planned reduction is a routine personal financial operation and is not expected to significantly impact the company's fundamentals or stock price [2] Group 3: Silicon Industry - The silicon industry is experiencing weak supply and demand, with stable multi-crystalline silicon prices and a relatively quiet market [3] - Demand for photovoltaic installations in the fourth quarter is expected to be weak, leading to limited order increases for battery components, while silicon wafer production rates remain stable [3] - Although some companies are resuming production, most have reached their order limits, resulting in only a few supply orders being executed at market price [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals released on October 22, 2025, covering various non - ferrous metals such as copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - For copper, the macro - level risk aversion cools down, the supply - side disturbance of copper mines increases, the production is expected to decline, the terminal consumption is weak, and the strategy is to go long on dips cautiously [4][6]. - For alumina, the supply - demand surplus will become more significant, and the price may rebound after the short - position reduction, with a focus on the implementation of the production - reduction expectation [15][16]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro logic is the main driving factor, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [22][23]. - For casting aluminum alloy, the macro sentiment improves, the cost support is stable, and the price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term [31][32]. - For zinc, the overseas low - inventory situation supports the LME price, and the domestic price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and go short on rallies [37][40]. - For lead, the downstream consumption improves marginally, but the supply may increase, and it is recommended to hold short positions and add short on rallies [44]. - For nickel, the macro environment is volatile, the cost has support, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies to the upper edge of the oscillation range [50][51]. - For stainless steel, the price oscillates strongly but is restricted by demand [57][58]. - For tin, the Sino - US trade tension eases, the mine supply is tight, and the price may oscillate around the integer mark [63][65]. - For industrial silicon, it is weak in the short term, waiting for a full correction [70]. - For polycrystalline silicon, it is recommended to buy on dips, hold the reverse spread of 2511 and 2512 contracts, and adjust the option strategy [75][78]. - For lithium carbonate, the inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price oscillates strongly [83][84]. Group 4: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 85,420 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, and the index position decreased by 3,950 lots to 532,700 lots. The spot price had different changes in different regions [2][3]. - **Important Information**: European leaders supported a cease - fire, China's import of anode copper decreased in September 2025, and the import of scrap copper ingots increased [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The risk - aversion sentiment cools down, the supply - side disturbance of copper mines increases, the production is expected to decline, and the terminal consumption is weak [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips and be cautious about chasing highs; hold the inter - market positive spread and arrange the inter - period positive spread after the domestic inventory starts to decline; wait and see for options [6][7][8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 34 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 7,177 lots to 468,900 lots. The spot price decreased in different regions [9]. - **Related Information**: Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises tendered for alumina, some alumina enterprises carried out maintenance or production reduction, and China's alumina import and export data changed in September 2025 [10][11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant, and the production - reduction scale is expected to expand in November [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price rebounds from the low due to the supply inflection point in the short term; wait and see for spreads and options [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 115 yuan to 21,045 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 25,548 lots to 517,200 lots. The spot price rose in some regions [19]. - **Related Information**: The Russia - US meeting was in a deadlock, the electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, and some overseas aluminum plants had production - reduction situations [19][20][21]. - **Trading Logic**: The macro logic is the main driving factor, and overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly; wait and see for spreads and options [23][24][25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 115 yuan to 20,515 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions and rose slightly in the southwest [27]. - **Related Information**: The warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data of un - wrought aluminum alloy changed in September 2025 [28][30]. - **Trading Logic**: The macro sentiment improves, the cost support is stable, and the price is restricted by high social inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips with the aluminum price, and the medium - term strong - oscillation trend remains unchanged; wait and see for spreads and options [32][33]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.18% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 299 lots to 229,800 lots. The spot trading was weak [35]. - **Related Information**: The LME zinc market had a rare spot shortage on October 21 [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic price is under pressure, the overseas price is supported, and the export window is open [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; wait and see for spreads and options [40]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.03% to 17,175 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,744 lots to 88,600 lots. The electrolytic lead supply was scarce [42]. - **Related Information**: Environmental protection measures affected the transportation in Hebei, and a small - scale regenerative lead smelter adjusted its production strategy [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream consumption improves marginally, but the supply may increase [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the short position and add short on rallies; wait and see for spreads and options [44]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 130 to 121,380 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 660 lots. The spot premium had different changes [46][47][49]. - **Important Information**: China's nickel - sulfur and wet - process intermediate imports increased in September 2025 [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro environment is volatile, the cost has support, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies to the upper edge of the oscillation range; wait and see for spreads; sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [51][52][53]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 45 to 12,710 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 10,286 lots. The spot price had a certain range [55]. - **Important Information**: Some stainless - steel enterprises in Taiwan applied for an anti - dumping investigation on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price oscillates strongly but is restricted by demand [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term driven by news; buy ss2512 and sell ss2602 for spreads [58][59]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract Shanghai tin 2511 closed at 281,680 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan/ton or 0.37%, and the position increased by 624 lots to 65,148 lots [61]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US and China - EU trade issues were involved, and the US president's remarks on Taiwan were responded to [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade tension eases, the mine supply is tight, and the demand recovers slowly [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate around the integer mark; wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Some domestic southwest polycrystalline - silicon bases will gradually reduce raw - material input and stop production [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon is bearish in November, and the price is under short - term pressure but has support [69]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Weak in the short term, waiting for a full correction; no suggestion for spreads and options [70][71][72]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Some domestic southwest polycrystalline - silicon bases will gradually reduce raw - material input and stop production [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance sheet will improve, and the short - term callback space is limited [75]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips; hold the reverse spread of 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range; adjust the option strategy [78][79][80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 1,240 to 77,120 yuan/ton, the index position increased by 41,864 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 873 to 29,019 tons. The spot price increased [82]. - **Important Information**: CATL's commercial - vehicle battery and energy - storage business grew [83]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing, reflecting strong demand, and the price oscillates strongly [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money put options [84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon industry faces significant supply - side pressure with large overall supply, partial enterprise production cuts falling short of expectations, and an increase in the number of operating enterprises leading to inventory accumulation. The demand side is relatively weak, with poor demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry, lower component tender prices, and postponed centralized projects, resulting in reduced demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers. Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the industry's overall gross profit margin is narrowing. International markets have mixed impacts, with high inventory in Europe suppressing import demand, and although the US tariff policy loosens to drive energy storage system exports, it can't fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, emerging markets like the Middle East and Latin America show a surge in demand, buffering the decline in the demand side. If the supply pressure continues to increase, high inventory will exert significant downward pressure on prices next week. After the monthly meeting, polysilicon remains in a platform shock and is expected to continue. The operation suggestion is to lay out long positions at low prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 50,310 yuan/ton, down 405 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,360 yuan, up 130 yuan; the main position volume of polysilicon is 49,016 lots, down 3,221 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 41,825 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 53,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the basis of polysilicon is 2,285 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.53 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,485 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69,857,000 kilowatts, up 3,475,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,290 units, down 19,491,370 units; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,733,770 units, down 6,706,520 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/unit, up 0.06 US dollars; the weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - GCL Technology announced a voluntary notice, disclosing that its photovoltaic materials business achieved a turnaround in the third quarter of 2025, recording a profit of about 960 million yuan, compared with a loss of 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year. The profit included a post - tax gain of about 640 million yuan from the sale of an associated company. Excluding this non - recurring gain, the photovoltaic materials business still achieved an operating profit [3]

Core Insights - The price range for multi-crystalline silicon n-type raw materials is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan per ton, remaining stable week-on-week [1] - The number of mainstream signing enterprises for multi-crystalline silicon has increased to 5-6, but overall market transactions remain relatively light, with signing volumes consistent with previous periods [1] - Demand expectations for photovoltaic installations in Q4 are weak, with limited increases in battery component orders, leading to stable operating rates for silicon wafer enterprises and overall steady demand for silicon materials [1] - Three companies are resuming production this month, leading to a slight increase in multi-crystalline silicon output expected in October, although most companies have reached their order limits [1] - The number of operating multi-crystalline silicon enterprises remains at 11, with production plans indicating a peak in October and a gradual decline in November and December [1] - Domestic multi-crystalline silicon production is expected to be around 382,000 tons in Q4, a slight year-on-year increase of 3.0%, while the total annual production for 2025 is projected to be approximately 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3% [1] - The multi-crystalline silicon industry is undergoing a critical period of structural reshaping, with inventory slightly accumulating despite a significant year-on-year supply contraction, indicating weak terminal demand [2] - Industry policies and market expectations are expected to be the main factors supporting the stable operation of the multi-crystalline silicon market in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market for polysilicon remains stable with no significant price changes, but demand expectations for the fourth quarter are weak, leading to limited order growth for battery components [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan per ton, remaining flat week-on-week [1] - The number of main signing enterprises for polysilicon has increased to 5-6, but overall market transactions remain relatively light, with signing volumes comparable to previous periods [1] - Demand from the market is stable, with expectations for weak photovoltaic installation in the fourth quarter and stable operating rates for wafer manufacturers [1] - Three companies have resumed production this month, leading to a slight increase in polysilicon output expected for October [1] Production and Capacity Insights - The number of polysilicon producers in operation remains at 11 [1] - Some production capacity in the southwestern region is expected to undergo maintenance and reduction starting in November due to seasonal water shortages, with October anticipated to be the peak production month for the year [1] - Domestic polysilicon production is projected to be around 382,000 tons for the fourth quarter, a slight year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - For 2025, the total domestic polysilicon production is expected to be approximately 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3%, indicating a slight oversupply compared to demand, with an estimated inventory accumulation of 20,000 tons for the year [1]