Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. Attention should be paid to the repair progress of terminal demand and the support of the cost side [4]. - The short - term price of iron ore may be slightly adjusted due to the weakening of terminal demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent shipping progress and the contradiction between high - level hot metal production and terminal demand [7]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, it is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, while hedging positions can still participate opportunistically. The final price will move closer to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in downstream terminal demand [8][9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in major production areas and the impact of policies [13][14][15]. - In the short term, glass and soda ash are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - sentiment fluctuations, and soda ash prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment under the "anti - involution" logic [17][18]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3155 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3419 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.58%) from the previous trading day. The positions of both decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, inventory accumulation accelerated, while hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, and inventory accumulation slowed down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are rising marginally, with high production but insufficient demand [4]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 772.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.52% (- 4.00), and the position increased by 1577 hands to 44.89 million hands [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. The daily average hot - metal output increased, and port and steel mill inventories both increased. Terminal demand weakened, and short - term prices may be adjusted [7]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Prices**: On August 18, the manganese silicon main contract (SM509) closed flat at 6026 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) fell 0.88% to 5880 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Suggestion**: Investment positions are recommended to wait and see, while hedging positions can participate according to their own situation. The "anti - involution" sentiment still disturbs the market, and prices will gradually return to fundamentals [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8605 yuan/ton, down 2.27% (- 200). The weighted contract position increased by 20923 hands to 552911 hands [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not changed. The operating rate is expected to rise in August, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52280 yuan/ton, down 0.87% (- 460). The weighted contract position decreased by 1658 hands to 321203 hands [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, inventory clearance was limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price in Shahe was 1160 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day. The national floating - glass inventory increased, and the inventory days increased. The market sentiment has been digested, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [17]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long term, it follows macro - sentiment fluctuations, and if there are substantial real - estate policies, prices may rise [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was 1260 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [18]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long term, under the "anti - involution" logic, prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment, but the rise is limited by demand [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy sectors are both "weak and fluctuating weakly" [1] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy sectors is weak, and the markets are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing prices of SiFe2509 and SiFe2510 are 5,754 and 5,732 respectively, up 10 and 8 from the previous trading day; the closing prices of MnSi2509 and MnSi2510 are 6,026 and 6,032 respectively, down 24 and 22 from the previous trading day. Trading volumes and open interests are also provided [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5,450 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ferroalloy FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5,800 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.2 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.1; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton, up 30 [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) is - 304 yuan/ton, down 10; the spot - futures price difference of manganese ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) is - 226 yuan/ton, up 24. Other price differences such as near - far month and cross - variety are also presented [1] Macro and Industry News - **Product Price News**: On August 15th, the prices of 72 and 75 silicon ferroalloy in different regions and the prices of 6517 silicon manganese in the north and south are reported. The FOB prices of silicon ferroalloy are also given. Multiple steel groups' silicon manganese tender prices and quantities in August are detailed, showing price increases compared to July [2][3] - **Production and Inventory News**: In July 2025, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; the daily average crude steel output in July was 2.569 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4%; from January to July, the crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. As of August 16th, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.4825 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,500 tons [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and the trend intensity of manganese ferroalloy is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - There are no explicit core viewpoints presented in the given content. The report mainly offers a comprehensive set of data on the ferroalloy market, including prices, supply, demand, inventory, and cost - profit aspects. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: On August 18, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron natural block was 5450 yuan, with a daily change of - 50 yuan and a weekly change of 50 yuan; the price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5450 yuan, with no daily or weekly change; the price of Shaanxi 75 was 5800 yuan, with no change. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1025 US dollars, and that of Tianjin 75 was 1075 US dollars, both with no change [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese was 5800 yuan, with no change; Ningxia 6517 was 5800 yuan, with a daily change of - 70 yuan; Guangxi 6517 was 5900 yuan, with a weekly change of 30 yuan [2]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The report shows historical data on the production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China (monthly and weekly), and the capacity utilization rate of these enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: It provides historical data on the production of silicon manganese in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025, as well as the procurement price and quantity of Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: Related demand data includes the production forecast of Chinese crude steel (monthly), the production of Chinese stainless - steel crude steel (monthly), and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The report presents the demand volume of silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's data) from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: It contains historical data on the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China (weekly), the inventory in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), and the inventory in different regions (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The report shows historical data on the total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory (daily), as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost - Profit - **Silicon Iron**: Data includes electricity prices in different regions (daily), the market price of blue charcoal (daily), the production profit of blue charcoal (daily), and the production cost and profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: It provides the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions (in yuan per ton, according to the Steel Union's data), and the profit of Guangxi and Ningxia silicon manganese converted to the main contract from 2021 - 2025 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of ferrosilicon manganese is further supported by the high prices of manganese ore and coke, as well as the increase in freight for northern manganese ore due to transportation restrictions during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin in late August [2]. - The supply side shows positive production sentiment in alloy plants in both the north and south. Factories in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have relatively low spot inventories and mainly focus on fulfilling forward orders. The start - up rates in Guangxi and Yunnan are gradually rising [2]. - The demand side is supported by the increase in both the procurement volume and price by Hegang Group in August. Hegang's August silicon - manganese procurement price is 6,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the first inquiry and 350 yuan from July, and the procurement volume is 16,100 tons, up from 14,600 tons in July [2]. - Overall, the spot price rose significantly this week driven by cost and demand, and the market sentiment is positive. It is expected that the short - term price of ferrosilicon manganese will remain firm, and the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: Data on the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises and the annual production of silicon - manganese in different regions of China are presented [7][8]. - **Production - Annual**: No specific text summary content, but annual production data are shown [9]. - **Production - Weekly, Monthly, and Start - up Rate**: Data on the weekly and monthly production of Chinese silicon - manganese and the weekly start - up rate of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises are provided [11]. - **Production - Regional Production**: Monthly production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as daily average production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi are presented [12][13]. Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Tendering and Procurement Price**: The monthly procurement prices of silicon - manganese by multiple steel companies are shown [16]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: Data on the weekly daily average hot metal production and weekly profitability rate of 247 Chinese steel enterprises are provided [18]. Manganese Silicon Import and Export - Import and export data of ferrosilicon manganese in China are presented, including monthly export and import quantities [20]. Manganese Silicon Inventory - Data on the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China and the monthly average available days of inventory in different regions are provided [22]. Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore - Import Volume**: Monthly import volume data of manganese ore from different sources and trade methods are presented [24]. - **Manganese Ore - Port Inventory and Available Days**: Data on the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China and different ports, as well as the weekly average available days of inventory, are provided [26]. - **Manganese Ore - High - Grade Ore Port Inventory**: Weekly port inventory data of high - grade manganese ore from different origins in different ports are presented [28]. - **Manganese Ore - Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Daily price data of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port are provided [29]. - **Regional Cost**: Daily cost data of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented [30]. Manganese Silicon Profit - Daily profit data of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented [32].

Report Information - Report Title: Silicon Ferrosilicon & Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 18, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [2] Core Viewpoint - Market trading is gradually returning to fundamentals, and the alloy market is oscillating. The alloy prices showed a weak and oscillating trend this week. Affected by the weakening sentiment of coking coal and coke, the alloy market is gradually returning to fundamentals. With potential continuous expansion of supply and weakening demand support, alloy prices may face pressure after the dissipation of the market sentiment [3][5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - **Futures Price**: This week, the Silicon Ferrosilicon 2509 contract oscillated, closing at 5,754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 795,571 lots and an open interest of 60,480 lots, a decrease of 58,558 lots week-on-week. The main contract shifted to Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511, closing at 5,932 yuan/ton on Friday. The Manganese Silicon 2509 contract also oscillated, closing at 6,026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 1,200,969 lots and an open interest of 153,180 lots, a decrease of 74,734 lots week-on-week [7]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of Silicon Ferrosilicon in major regions across the country were relatively stable this week. The aggregated quotation of 75B Silicon Ferrosilicon in major producing areas was 5,400 - 5,500 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week change of 0 - 50 yuan/ton. The aggregated quotation of Silicon Manganese in major regions across the country ranged from 5,800 to 6,100 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of -50 to 120 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Silicon Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week, the output of Silicon Ferrosilicon was 112,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,800 tons, with a week-on-week change rate of +3.3%. The weekly operating rate was 36.18%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points from last week. The production increase was mainly contributed by Gansu (46.7%) and Shaanxi (31.8%) [22][23]. - **Demand**: - **Steel - making Demand**: The actual output of hot metal from downstream steel mills was weakly stable on a week-on-week basis. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week; the daily average hot metal output was 240,660 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,400 tons [34]. - **Non - steel Demand**: The output of stainless - steel crude steel in July was 2.8241 million tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The planned output of stainless - steel crude steel in August is expected to increase by 4.3% month - on - month. The total output of magnesium metal in July was 68,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The export volume of Silicon Ferrosilicon in June was 34,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96% [34]. - **Inventory**: - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: As of August 15, the inventory of 60 Silicon Ferrosilicon sample enterprises in China was 65,180 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6,590 tons. - **Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: As of August 15, the number of Silicon Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 20,916, an increase of 1,270 week-on-week, equivalent to a stock of 104,580 tons, with an accumulation of 6,350 tons this week. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In July, the average available days of Silicon Ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 14.25 days (-1.13 days), with 13.22 days in the northern region (-0.57 days), 15 days in the eastern region (-1.71 days), and 15.78 days in the southern region (-1.22 days) [43]. - **Profit**: The spot and futures profits of Silicon Ferrosilicon expanded following the market. The weekly futures profit was 625 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 34.41% and a year-on-year increase of 4707.69%. The weekly spot profit was 143 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 53.76% and a year-on-year increase of 326.98% [4]. 3. Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week, the output of Manganese Silicon was 207,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11,200 tons, with a week-on-week change rate of +5.4%. The weekly operating rate was 45.75%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points from last week. The production increase was mainly contributed by Ningxia (61.7%) and Inner Mongolia (9.3%) [57][58]. - **Raw Materials**: - **Manganese Ore Price**: Overseas mining companies' quotations for manganese ore increased. For example, South32's September 2025 offer for South African semi - carbonate lumps (Mn36.9%) was 4.05 US dollars per ton - degree, an increase of 0.15 US dollars per ton - degree compared to the August offer. The port prices in Tianjin were relatively stable [64]. - **Manganese Ore Supply**: The global outbound volume of manganese ore increased on a week-on-week basis, but the overall shipping speed slowed down. The recent inbound volume of manganese ore at ports increased on a week-on-week basis, and the demand at Tianjin Port is expected to break through previous highs [67][68]. - **Demand**: - **Steel - making Demand**: The actual output of hot metal from downstream steel mills was weakly stable on a week-on-week basis. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week; the daily average hot metal output was 240,660 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,400 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 3,700 tons week-on-week, but still supported the overall demand for Manganese Silicon [74]. - **Inventory**: - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: As of August 15, the inventory of 63 Manganese Silicon sample enterprises in China was 158,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,700 tons. - **Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: As of August 15, the number of Manganese Silicon warehouse receipts was 74,797, a week-on-week decrease of 1,248, equivalent to a stock of 373,985 tons, with a reduction of 6,240 tons in warehouse receipts this week. There may be concentrated registration of warehouse receipts next week. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In July, the average available days of Manganese Silicon inventory in steel mills was 14.24 days (-1.25 days), with 13.37 days in the northern region (-0.56 days), 14.74 days in the eastern region (-2.12 days), and 15.78 days in the southern region (-1.22 days) [82][83]. - **Profit**: The cost support for Manganese Silicon was relatively stable, but the profit narrowed following the price decline. The weekly futures profit was 213.72 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 8.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.34%. The weekly spot profit was - 12.28 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.93% and a year-on-year decrease of 155.01% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term speculative funds are advised to stay on the sidelines, while industrial players can seize hedging opportunities [1][81]. - The "anti - involution" policy has led to price fluctuations in related commodities, but the market is still in a state of emotional disturbance. Eventually, prices will move towards the fundamentals, which will take time [15][95]. - In the future, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, as well as the entire black sector, are likely to face a situation of weakening marginal demand. It is necessary to focus on changes in downstream terminal demand and whether the state will introduce relevant demand - supporting measures [15][95]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price is 6026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis ratio is 1.06%, at a neutral historical level. Manganese silicon production profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 298 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 258 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 476 yuan/ton. Manganese silicon production cost increases slightly, with Inner Mongolia at 6098 yuan/ton, Ningxia at 6058 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 6376 yuan/ton. Weekly manganese silicon output is 20.71 tons, up 1.12 tons week - on - week. Weekly rebar output is 220.45 tons, down 0.73 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. Manganese silicon visible inventory is 54.38 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week [14]. - Strategy: Given the current market situation of commodity price fluctuations and emotional disturbances, speculative funds are advised to wait and see, while industrial players can choose the right time for hedging [15]. 3.1.2 Spot and Futures Market - Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price is 6026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis ratio is 1.06%, at a neutral historical level [20]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 298 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is - 258 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Guangxi is - 476 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [25]. - Production cost: Inner Mongolia is 6098 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is 6058 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Guangxi is 6376 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [30]. - Manganese ore imports: In June, manganese ore imports were 268 tons, down 25.95 tons month - on - month and up 54.01 tons year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative imports were 1446 tons, up 48.52 tons or 3.47% year - on - year [33]. - Manganese ore inventory: As of August 9, 2025, manganese ore port inventory is 448.9 tons, up 10.4 tons week - on - week [36]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: Weekly manganese silicon output is 20.71 tons, up 1.12 tons week - on - week, with an accelerating increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is down about 4.34% year - on - year. In July 2025, manganese silicon output was 81.96 tons, up 6.73 tons month - on - month. From January to July, cumulative output was down 32.51 tons or 5.39% year - on - year [44]. - Demand: Weekly rebar output is 220.45 tons, down 0.73 tons week - on - week. As of this week, cumulative weekly output is down about 2.57% year - on - year. Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 3.19% year - on - year. Weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon is 12.54 tons, basically unchanged week - on - week [14][58]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: Manganese silicon visible inventory is 54.38 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [69]. - Sample enterprise inventory: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises is 15.88 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week [72]. - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of manganese silicon steel mill inventory is 14.24 days, down 1.25 days month - on - month, at a historical low [75]. 3.1.6 Graphical Trends - Last week (August 11 - 15), the manganese silicon futures price maintained a volatile trend, with a weekly decline of 16 yuan/ton or - 0.26%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June, but the daily K - line is loose, disorderly, and the trend is weakening. Short - term support levels at around the rebound trend line and 5850 yuan/ton (for the weighted index) should be monitored [80]. Ferrosilicon Report 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 47.46 tons, down 2.92 tons or 5.80% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year. The visible inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.41 tons, down 0.49 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures price is 5754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 146 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis ratio is 2.47%, at a neutral historical level. Ferrosilicon production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia is 93 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is - 15 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The production cost of the main producing areas is basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5661 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia at 5357 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; and Qinghai at 5465 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. Weekly ferrosilicon output is 11.28 tons, up 0.37 tons week - on - week, with a continuous increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 0.48% year - on - year [94]. - Strategy: Similar to manganese silicon, short - term speculative funds are advised to stay on the sidelines, while industrial players can seize hedging opportunities [95]. 3.2.2 Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures price is 5754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 146 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis ratio is 2.47%, at a neutral historical level [100]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia is 93 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is - 15 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week [105]. - Production cost: The main producing areas' production cost is basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5661 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia at 5357 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; and Qinghai at 5465 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of silica in the northwest region is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the price of Shenmu semi - coke small material is 650 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [111]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: Weekly ferrosilicon output is 11.28 tons, up 0.37 tons week - on - week, with a continuous increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 0.48% year - on - year. In July 2025, ferrosilicon output was 44.67 tons, up 3.26 tons month - on - month. From January to July, cumulative output was down 0.56 tons or 0.18% year - on - year [116]. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 3.19% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 47.46 tons, down 2.92 tons or 5.80% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year [94]. 3.2.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: The visible inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.41 tons, down 0.49 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level in the same period [139]. - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of ferrosilicon steel mill inventory is 14.25 days, down 1.13 days month - on - month, at a historical low [142]. 3.2.6 Graphical Trends - Last week (August 11 - 15), the ferrosilicon futures price continued to show a wide - range volatile trend, with a slightly narrowed fluctuation range and a weekly decline of 10 yuan/ton or - 0.17%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June, and the daily K - line is loose and disorderly. Short - term support levels at around 5600 yuan/ton and 5700 yuan/ton (for the weighted index) should be monitored [148].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The alloy market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. However, the recent rapid increase in supply and limited further growth in demand suggest potential weakening in the supply - demand balance. Iron alloys can be considered as short - side allocation in the industrial chain [5]. - As the "anti - involution" trading calms down, commodity performance is expected to diverge. Products with actual production cuts and policy support will likely remain strong, while others will be driven more by their own fundamentals [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Supply**: The production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese continued to rise this week, and the operating rates in recent weeks have shown an accelerating upward trend [5]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of 247 steel mills slightly increased, but the apparent demand for steel, especially for rebar, decreased more than seasonally. Combined with the poor macro data in July, there is a risk of a decline in the demand side [5]. - **Cost**: The electricity price remained stable this week, and the price of port manganese ore increased slightly [5]. - **Market sentiment**: "Anti - involution" leading varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal are oscillating at high levels. As the "anti - involution" trading calms down, commodity performance will diverge. Iron alloys' supply - demand is currently stable but may face pressure from the accelerating supply increase [5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Due to the recent accelerating increase in supply, iron alloys can be used as short - side allocation in the industrial chain [6]. - **Arbitrage**: When the basis is low, cash - and - carry arbitrage can be considered [6]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.66 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 2.03 tons (accounting for about 70% of the total demand), unchanged from the previous week. The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types (70%) was 12.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 tons [11]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%. The national ferrosilicon production (weekly supply) was 11.28 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%. The national silicomanganese production (99% of weekly supply) was 20.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12 tons [12]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national capacity) was 15.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons [13]. Cost and Profit - **Silicomanganese**: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5899 yuan/ton with a profit of - 99 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 53.8%. In Ningxia, the production cost was 5938 yuan/ton with a profit of - 38 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 21.1%. In Guangxi, the production cost was 6432 yuan/ton with a profit of - 532 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 3.1%. In Guizhou, the production cost was 6178 yuan/ton with a profit of - 308 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 3.2% [30]. - **Ferrosilicon**: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5499 yuan/ton with a profit of - 49 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 29.1%. In Ningxia, the production cost was 5352 yuan/ton with a profit of 148 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 27.1%. In Shaanxi, the production cost was 5564 yuan/ton with a profit of - 114 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 18.1%. In Qinghai, the production cost was 5421 yuan/ton with a profit of 79 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 15.3%. In Gansu, the production cost was 5573 yuan/ton with a profit of - 73 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 9.5% [41]. Other Data - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export**: Data on the monthly net import of manganese ore and the monthly net export of ferrosilicon are presented, showing trends over different time periods [69]. - **Metal Magnesium Demand**: Information on the price of magnesium in Fugu and the cumulative production of magnesium in Yulin, Shaanxi is provided [71]. - **Silicon - Iron Inventory**: Data on the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants and the available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills are given, including regional breakdowns [75]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: Information on the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the total inventory of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy plants is presented [78].

Report Date - The report is dated August 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Steel**: After the coal mine safety meeting, the hype sentiment for coking coal cooled, leading to a correction in the black sector. This week, the supply of the five major steel products increased while demand decreased, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The fundamentals of steel are weakening, but overall inventory is low, and there is support from low - price buyers. The short - term market optimism has cooled, and the upper resistance for the rebar October contract is between 3250 - 3300. However, due to the expected supply contraction, the downside space is limited, with support at around 3100 for the rebar October contract (around 3350 for hot - rolled coils). The short - term disk is expected to be oscillating weakly [3] - **Iron Ore**: Market supervision has tightened, and speculative sentiment has declined. The price of iron ore was dragged down by the sharp drop in coking coal. The fundamentals of iron ore are currently stable, with short - term supply being neutral and iron - making water production expected to remain stable. Production restrictions have a limited impact on near - month demand. Steel mill profits are expected to remain at a good level, supporting the price. The price is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [19] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There have been frequent reports of supply disruptions in Shanxi coal mines. The "anti - involution" in the coal industry will be the trading focus in the third quarter. However, the incremental substitution effect of imports cannot be ignored. The supply - demand of coking coal has returned to a tight - balance pattern. The long - term outlook for coking coal and coke is not pessimistic, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events [29] - **Ferroalloys**: The price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. Currently, steel mill profits are good, and high iron - making water production supports ferroalloy demand. In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries depends on policy stimulus. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is weak. In the short term, the "anti - involution" trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction [46] - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, with daily production fluctuating around 106,000 - 107,000 tons. The demand for soda ash is expected to remain weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory has reached a new high, putting pressure on the spot price. The cost has increased slightly with the strong coal price. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [56] - **Glass**: The near - term trading has returned to industrial reality, and policy expectations may fluctuate. The daily melting volume of the supply side is stable at around 159,000 - 160,000 tons. The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined by 7%. The market is in a weak - balance state. The downstream inventory is at a high level, and the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [82] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3269 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was 3314 yuan/ton, and the 10 contract was 3188 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3432 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was 3439 yuan/ton, and the 10 contract was 3439 yuan/ton [4] - **Spot Prices**: On August 15, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3386 yuan/ton, in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, in Beijing was 3290 yuan/ton, in Hangzhou was 3340 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3460 yuan/ton, in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, and in Shenyang was 3400 yuan/ton [9] - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 51 yuan/ton, the 05 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 6 yuan/ton, and the 10 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 132 yuan/ton. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was 28 yuan/ton, the 05 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was 21 yuan/ton, and the 10 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was 21 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - screw spread was 163 yuan/ton, the 05 roll - screw spread was 125 yuan/ton, and the 10 roll - screw spread was 251 yuan/ton [9][13] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 776 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was 755.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 792 yuan/ton [20] - **Basis and Spot Prices**: The 01 basis was - 4 yuan/ton, the 05 basis was 18 yuan/ton, and the 09 basis was - 20 yuan/ton. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 772 yuan/ton, Rizhao Carajás fines was 879 yuan/ton, and Rizhao Super Special was 646 yuan/ton [20] - **Fundamentals**: The daily average iron - making water production was 240,660 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 3.3467 million tons, the apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.31 million tons, the global shipping volume was 3.0467 billion tons, the Australia - Brazil shipping volume was 2.4277 billion tons, the 45 - port arrival volume was 2.3819 billion tons, the 45 - port inventory was 138.1927 million tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 91.364 million tons [24] Coking Coal and Coke - **Cost and Basis**: On August 15, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1008 yuan/ton, and the main coking coal basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 222.5 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1605 yuan/ton, and the main coke basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 124.6 yuan/ton [34] - **Spot Prices**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1470 yuan/ton, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 996 yuan/ton, and the CFR price of Australian Peak Downs North was 203.5 US dollars/wet ton. The ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - primary wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - primary dry coke was 1530 yuan/ton [35] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On August 15, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 132 yuan/ton, the silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was - 126 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5600 yuan/ton [47] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 124 yuan/ton, the silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5800 yuan/ton [49] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1450 yuan/ton, the 09 contract was 1293 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract was 1395 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 157 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton [57] - **Basis and Spot Prices**: The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was - 116 yuan/ton. The heavy - alkali market price in North China was 1350 yuan/ton, and the light - alkali market price was 1250 yuan/ton [57][60] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1309 yuan/ton, the 09 contract was 1046 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract was 1211 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 263 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread was - 165 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 98 yuan/ton [83] - **Basis and Sales**: The 05 contract basis (Shahe) was - 148 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis (Shahe) was 98.6 yuan/ton. On August 11, 2025, the Shahe sales rate was 82%, the Hubei sales rate was 56%, the East China sales rate was 87%, and the South China sales rate was 99% [83][84]

Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot Roll: ★★☆, suggesting a clear long trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★★☆, indicating a clear long trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicon Iron: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a state of repeated tug - of - war between weak demand and anti - involution, with the short - term operation rhythm of the futures price switching quickly and mainly oscillating within a range. The overall wind direction change of the commodity market should be noted [2] - The iron ore futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with limited fundamental contradictions currently [3] - The coke futures price has a high short - term volatility, with the price being greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [4] - The coking coal futures price has a large short - term volatility, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [6] - The silicon manganese price bottom is gradually rising, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, mainly following the coking coal trend [7] - The silicon iron price is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the silicon manganese trend [8] Summary by Industry Steel - This week, the apparent demand for thread decreased significantly, production declined slightly, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The apparent demand for hot roll improved, production increased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down [2] - The molten iron production declined moderately but remained at a high level. With low inventory, the market negative feedback pressure is not large. As the parade approaches, attention should be paid to the production restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the downstream industries, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure growth slowed down, the manufacturing prosperity degree slowed down, and the overall domestic demand was still weak, while steel exports remained at a relatively high level [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment is stronger year - on - year, and there is an expectation of seasonal recovery in the future. The domestic port inventory has stabilized and rebounded, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure even under high port clearance [3] - On the demand side, this week's steel apparent demand declined, but the proportion of profitable steel mills is at a high level, and currently there is insufficient motivation for active production reduction. Iron ore demand is still supported by high molten iron. Future attention should be paid to the progress of policy - based production restrictions [3] - At the macro level, the Sino - US tariff extension, domestic demand still needs policy support, and the market sentiment has cooled down due to the coking coal position limit [3] Coke - The coking plants in East China have expectations of production restrictions again as a major event approaches. The sixth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, profits have improved, and daily coke production has increased slightly [4] - The overall coke inventory is in a downward trend, and the purchasing willingness of traders is good. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level in the off - season. The market sentiment has been boosted by coal over - production inspection [4] Coking Coal - The new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" mainly pushes up the cost per ton of coal. The production of coking coal mines has decreased, the spot auction market has improved, the transaction price has mainly increased, and the terminal inventory has remained flat [6] - The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory has continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue de - stocking in the short term. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level in the off - season. The market sentiment has been boosted by coal over - production inspection [6] Silicon Manganese - The demand side has a molten iron production of over 240, still maintaining a high level. The weekly silicon manganese production has continued to increase, but the production increase rate is lower than expected, providing some support for the price [7] - The manganese ore price has increased slightly this week. It is judged that the manganese ore will mainly accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. In July, supply exceeded demand, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to be depleted. Attention should be paid to when the on - balance - sheet silicon manganese inventory starts to increase [7] Silicon Iron - The molten iron production has decreased slightly but remained above 240. A large northern steel mill's tender price increased by 430 compared with the previous round, with a tender price of 6030 yuan/ton and an inquiry price of 5700 yuan/ton [8] - The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact being small. The metal magnesium production has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand has declined marginally. The overall demand is acceptable [8] - The silicon iron supply has increased significantly, the market transaction level is average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has increased slightly [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The steel production and sales are weakening, and the price is oscillating and correcting. The market sentiment of glass and soda ash is declining, and they are oscillating. The consumption of steel is weakening, and the alloy prices are continuously dropping [1][3] - Glass prices are expected to be oscillating weakly, and soda ash prices are also expected to be oscillating weakly. Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [2][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market was oscillating weakly. The spot market was mainly for刚需 purchases, and the speculative sentiment weakened. The weekly开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous week, and the manufacturer inventory was 6.3426 billion heavy boxes, a 2.55% increase from the previous week [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market was oscillating strongly. The downstream demand was continuously weak, mainly for刚需 restocking. The weekly产能 utilization rate was 87.32%, a 1.91% increase from the previous week; the output was 761,300 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week; and the inventory was 1.8938 million tons, a 1.54% increase from the previous week [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: With the decline of market sentiment, glass returns to its fundamental pricing logic. The supply has not been effectively cleared, the speculative demand has weakened, the supply - demand is still loose, and the spot price has dropped. The increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the price of the 09 contract [1] - Soda Ash: Currently, the soda ash output is continuously increasing with an expected further increase. The consumption may further weaken, and the inventory growth pressure is large. In the short - term, it is easily affected by news, while in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will suppress the price [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The steel data showed that steel inventory was continuously increasing and consumption was significantly declining. The silicon manganese futures market was oscillating downward. The spot market was in a wait - and - see state. The 6517 grade in the northern market was priced at 5,800 - 5,870 yuan/ton, and in the southern market at 5,850 - 5,920 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: Affected by the decline in steel prices, the silicon iron futures market tumbled at the end of the session. The silicon iron manufacturers' supplies were tight, and the spot market price was stable. The 72 - grade silicon iron natural block in the main production area was 5,450 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,900 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The output and demand of silicon manganese have slightly increased, the manufacturer inventory has decreased month - on - month and is at a medium level in the same period. The manganese ore quotation to China has slightly increased, and the cost has slightly moved up, supporting the spot price. However, considering the continuous increase in manganese ore port inventory, the cost support is weak, and the industry has obvious over - supply [3] - Silicon Iron: Currently, the silicon iron output is rapidly increasing, the demand has slightly increased, and the manufacturer inventory has increased month - on - month and is at a relatively high level in the same period. The increase in chemical coke price has driven up the cost, supporting the spot price. The industry has obvious over - supply [4] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Oscillating [5] - Silicon Iron: Oscillating [5]