请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.59%，报收 64.61 美分/磅，CF601 环比持平，报收 13625 元 | 震荡 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 11839 手至 54.06 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14475 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日基本持平。国际市场方面，宏观层面是近期市场关注重点，随着 | | | | 美国经济数据、报告陆续恢复发布，美联储 12 月降息 25bp 概率逐渐升温，目前 | | | | 已至八成以上。昨日美元指数震荡走弱，美棉期价重心小幅上移。基本面方面， | | | | USDA11 月报公布后，市场仍缺乏新的锚点，美棉出口周报缺口时间较长，整体 | | | | 驱动因素有限，震荡为主。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉主力合约减仓 1 万余手，仍 | | | | 在当前压力位震荡。我们认为，当前郑棉上下方驱动均相对有限。当 ...

11月25日，以"大力发展土特产 乐享共富新生活"为主题的2025浙江农业博览会在杭州国际博览中心圆满闭幕。五天会 期共吸引大量市民和采购商参与，累计现场参观采购达27.25万人次，总交易额突破3.22亿元，同比增长9.52%，多项 数据创历届新高，彰显出浙江农业高质量发展的强劲动能与消费活力。 本届农博会汇聚全省及对口地区3500余家农业主体、4万余种农产品，六大展区特色鲜明，区域协作范围进一步扩 大。展会期间，现场零售额达2.76亿元，人均消费1012.84元，同比增长29.13%；网上农博会零售额达4587.32万元。 订货签约成果丰硕，累计签订订货合同1645项，合同订货额达31.56亿元，同比增加93.86%。其中，四川禹珍实业的黑 猪肉订单金额超800万元，浙江天河茶业的特级红茶订单额超100万元。 线上推广和直播带货成效显著，五天累计开展直播459场，总直播销售额突破2180.4万元，温州欧日鱼饼单场直播销售 额达30万元，展现出"数字+农业"融合的巨大潜力。此外，网上农博会发放满减支付券近770万元，叠加各类优惠补贴 超1500万元，有效拉动了大众消费。 从金耳、桑黄等"新特产"到龙井茶啤、抹 ...

Core Insights - The corn market has shown a strong linkage between futures and spot prices, with new corn prices rising by 6% to 8% year-on-year due to structural supply tightness, boosting market confidence [1] - The planting area for corn in China is expected to increase steadily, reaching 44.87 million hectares by 2025, with total production estimated at approximately 29.616 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.24 million tons [1] - The consumption of corn for feed accounts for 65% to 70% of total demand, with a 2% year-on-year increase in the national pig stock and a 6% increase in compound feed production over the past 10 months [3][4] - The deep processing capacity for corn has exceeded 125 million tons, supporting industrial consumption, with a 6.3% year-on-year increase in deep processing corn consumption from January to October [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The new corn harvest has seen smooth inventory digestion, with major processing enterprises' corn stocks down about 20% year-on-year, and stocks at northern ports down 78% year-on-year, leading to rising prices [1] - The winter season is expected to bring increased snowfall, which may hinder corn transportation from Northeast China, leading to higher transportation costs and potentially higher corn prices [4] - Domestic corn imports are expected to be significantly lower than the 7.2 million tons tariff quota, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance in the corn market [5] Group 2: Demand Factors - The substitution advantage of wheat over corn has weakened, further boosting corn feed demand, with projected feed consumption for the 2025/2026 season expected to remain high at 193 to 195 million tons [4] - The proactive purchasing by state-owned enterprises like China Grain Reserves Corporation has reduced supply pressure during the new corn harvest season, effectively stabilizing market prices [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-11-27 下游供应宽松，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3015元/吨，较前日变动+2元/吨，幅度+0.07%；菜粕2601合约2439元/吨，较前 日变动+8元/吨，幅度+0.33%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01+45， 较前日变动+8；江苏地区豆粕现货2980元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-35，较前日变动-2；广东地区豆 粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-45，较前日变动-2。福建地区菜粕现货价格2620元/ 吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM01+181，较前日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部周二公布的出口销售报告显示，10月9日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增 78.50万吨，较之前一周减少15%，较前四周均值减少9%，市场此前预估为净增50.0万吨至净增140.0万吨。11月25 日，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，巴西11月大豆出口量料触及440万吨，上周预测为471万吨。 市场分析 当前国内供应依旧较为宽松 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on the expected net increase in US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons, as well as production data for palm oil in Malaysia, rapeseed in Canada, and Australia, and the forecasted rapeseed production in the EU and UK [1]. - It also includes spot price data for various agricultural products from November 20 - 26, 2025 [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - As of the week ending October 16, US 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 60 - 200 million tons, with 2026/27 expected to net increase by 0 tons; US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 15 - 45 million tons, with 2026/27 expected to net increase by 0 tons; US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons, with 2026/27 expected to net increase by 0 tons [1]. - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from November 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 5.49% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield increasing by 3.34% and oil extraction rate increasing by 0.41% [1]. - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's crude palm oil production from November 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 3.24% compared to the same period last month, with different regions having varying growth rates [1]. - Canada's rapeseed crushing volume in October 2025 was 1,026,547 tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous month and a 6.8% decrease from the same period last year; rapeseed oil production was 428,837 tons, a 0.82% increase month - on - month and a 6.62% decrease year - on - year; rapeseed meal production was 603,035 tons, a 2.26% increase month - on - month and a 6.98% decrease year - on - year [1]. - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is estimated to be 6.5 million tons, a 4.1% increase from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 6.3 - 6.7 million tons, and the average yield per hectare is adjusted to 1.90 tons [1]. - The 2026/27 rapeseed production in EU 27 + UK is estimated to be 20.3 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 19.3 - 21.3 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices for soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu are provided from November 20 - 26, 2025, showing price fluctuations during this period [2].

淀粉：短期看，淀粉报价跟随原料价格波动。新季玉米上市后，深加工采购积极性增加，开机率也逐步上调，不过由于下游补货依旧平缓，造 成产业去库缓慢，在高库存的压制下，淀粉价格依旧承压。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，若淀粉 报价出现大幅回落，届时会刺激下游补货积极性提升，带动价格走强。 | 农产品早报 | | --- | | 白糖 | | 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 进口利润 | 仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 柳州 | 南宁 | 昆明 | 柳州基差 | 泰国 | 巴西 | 郑盘 | | 2025/11/20 | - | 5760 | 5555 | - | - | - | 8165 | | 2025/11/21 | 5675 | 5760 | 5560 | 322 | 410 | 591 | 8154 | | 2025/11/24 | 5615 | 5450 | 5500 | 245 | 340 | 521 | 7876 | | 2025/11/25 | 5615 | 5480 | 55 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Macro: On November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the expectation of a December rate cut. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and it is recommended to follow the key voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: China's internal economic momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan in policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The loan prime rate has remained stable since May, suggesting the central bank may not rush to further relax policies. New and second - hand housing sales and land supply have increased, but land transactions remain low, and real - estate work demand and production capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payrolls, the December rate - cut expectation was initially lowered, and the US dollar index rose. However, the New York Fed President's speech lifted the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to balance asset allocation in Q4, and pay attention to opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals during market dips [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The Fed's expectation management is shifting, with a possible dovish turn in key figures' speeches in the next two weeks [8]. - Domestic: Policy measures may support Q4 infrastructure investment. The central bank may not rush to relax policies. Real - estate sales have improved, but land transactions and work demand are weak [8]. - Asset Allocation: Balance asset allocation in Q4. Look for buying opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals during market dips [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: With reduced overseas shocks, the risk appetite may rise. Stock index futures may rise in a volatile manner, stock index options may remain stable, and treasury bond futures may also rise in a volatile way [9]. - **Precious Metals**: In a short - term adjustment phase, gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the freight rate decline rate of the European container shipping line, which is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Black Building Materials**: The rebound momentum is weakening. Steel, iron ore, coke, and other products are expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Optimism is rising, and base metals may stop falling and rebound, with most products expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade situation has slightly eased, but the supply - demand imbalance persists. Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate, while some may decline [11]. - **Agriculture**: Market sentiment has improved, but trends are divergent. Some agricultural products are expected to rise, while others may decline or remain stable [11].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月27日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王法庭 | Z0019938 | | 更油 | | | | | | | | | | | 11月26日 | 11月25日 | 旅跌 | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 | | 江苏一级 | 8460 | 8510 | -20 | -0.59% | | 期价 | | Y2601 | 8150 | 8144 | 6 | 0.07% | | 墓差 | | Y2601 | 310 | 366 | -56 | -15.30% | | 现货墓差报价 | | 江苏1月 | 01+280 | 01+280 | 0 | : | | 仓单 | | | 22029 | 24625 | -2596 | -10.54% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | | | | 11月26日 | 11月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | | 广东24度 | 8290 | 8370 | -80 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity, but consumer spending has declined, and the downward pressure on the economic fundamentals persists, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index. The A-share market remains in a state of shrinking trading volume, and the market may enter a period of wait - and - see due to the marginal decline in liquidity. The bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline, but it remains weak in the near term. Steel prices are oscillating, with limited upward drivers. Nickel investors can consider closing short positions and potentially going long. Oil prices have rebounded despite an increase in EIA crude inventories [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's Beige Book indicates that tariffs increase corporate financial pressure. Gold prices oscillated and closed higher. The market's risk appetite remained high, and the expectation of a December interest - rate cut by the Fed was further strengthened. Gold is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the short term [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax increase. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity but a decline in consumer spending. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [13][14][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market showed shrinking trading volume and divergence. Six departments issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand. The market may enter a wait - and - see period due to the marginal decline in liquidity. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [17][18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 216,000. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity. US economic data indicates that the economy remains resilient, and the market risk appetite has improved. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view overall and observe if the 50 - day moving average can provide strong support [20][21][22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 213.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 9.72 billion yuan. If the new regulations on fund fees are implemented in the short term, the bond market may rebound significantly. Otherwise, the bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline but will remain weak. It is recommended to expect a short - term recovery but remain bearish on the market [24][25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data shows a 3.24% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 20. The supply pressure on palm oil has eased, and the price has stabilized. It is advisable to wait for subsequent data [27]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in December is about 9.048 million tons, and the estimated soybean crushing volume in December is 9.569 million tons. The futures prices of soybeans are expected to remain oscillating. It is necessary to continue to monitor China's purchase of US soybeans and the weather in South American producing areas [28][29][30][31]. 2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is weakening. The supply of coking coal is increasing, while the demand for coke from steel mills is seasonally declining. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream restocking situation [32][33]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In mid - November, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 1.943 million tons. Steel prices are oscillating. The recent increase in steel prices is related to policy expectations and cost support, but the demand does not support a significant increase. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [33][35][36]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Three cold air masses will affect China. After the completion of winter stockpiling, coal prices are driven by actual supply and demand. It is necessary to monitor whether the daily coal consumption turns positive in December to support coal prices at a seasonal high [37]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - 230 steel enterprises have completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. Ore prices are expected to remain high and oscillating in December. It is advisable to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - European copper smelter Aurubis rejects low offers for copper concentrates. AI - driven data centers are becoming a new engine for copper demand. Macro - factors are mixed, and copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillating. It is recommended to go long on dips [40][41][42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $28.49 per ton. The short - term fundamentals of lead are not weak. It is advisable to close short positions on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $140.2 per ton. There is a risk of a mid - term squeeze on LME zinc. It is recommended to hold long positions in the calendar spread in the short term and exit the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage in a timely manner [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - On November 26, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,038 tons. The smelting sector is gradually implementing production cuts, but the balance sheet still shows an oversupply. It is advisable for previous short - sellers to gradually close their positions and consider going long on dips. The situation of resource contraction in Indonesia needs to be evaluated in the medium term [47][48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The UK will include critical mineral reserves in its defense procurement plan. The lithium battery market has optimistic expectations, but there are still differences in short - term market sentiment. It is not recommended to chase the long side. If production resumes and demand weakens in the off - season, it is advisable to go short on the right side. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips [50][51]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased, and EIA commercial crude inventories increased. Oil prices rebounded. It is expected that oil prices will remain oscillating and weak in the short term [51][52][53]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt increased. The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that asphalt prices will oscillate in the short term [54][55]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory decreased significantly, but it is not a substantial positive factor. It is not recommended to go short, but it is advisable to wait and see for short - selling opportunities [56][57]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong showed mixed changes. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The short - term futures price is expected to remain weak. It is necessary to monitor whether supply reduction occurs due to profit compression [58][60][62]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased. The decline in inventory supports the urea futures price. It is necessary to continue to monitor the release rhythm of winter storage demand [63][64]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market showed mixed price changes. It is expected that the pulp market will oscillate in the future [65][66]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Chinese ports will resume loading and unloading US soybeans. The spot price of W50 has dropped more than expected, and the European line futures price has declined. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68].

Core Insights - Fangcheng County Junhe Recycled Resources Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 100,000 RMB and is represented by Pan Fang [1] Company Overview - The company operates in various sectors including recycling of renewable resources (excluding production waste metals), sales and processing of renewable resources, and technical services such as development, consulting, and promotion [1] - The company is also involved in the wholesale, retail, and initial processing of edible agricultural products, as well as the purchase and sale of primary agricultural products [1] - Additional activities include the processing and utilization of agricultural waste, grain sales, and comprehensive utilization of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery waste [1] Licensing and Regulatory Compliance - The company is permitted to engage in road cargo transportation (excluding hazardous materials), subject to approval from relevant authorities [1] - Specific business activities are contingent upon obtaining necessary approvals and licenses from relevant departments [1]