大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c 粕类日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 【粕类日报】市场变动有限 盘面震荡回落 F3045719 研究员：陈界正 投资咨询证号： 期货从业证号： Z0015458 量大，在后续国内压榨减少情况下，压力仍然比较明显。 国内现货继续呈现偏宽松状态，油厂开机率继续增加，市场供应充足，提货量也受益增 加，库存逐步累积，现货市场成交整体表现一般，市场对当前价格接受度表现一般。截止 7 月 4 日，油厂大豆实际压榨量 233.22 万吨，开机率为 65.56%，大豆库存 636.4 万吨，较上 周减少 29.47 万吨，减幅 4.43%，同比去年增加 64.51 万吨，增幅 11.28%。豆粕库存 82.24 万吨，较上周增加 13.08 万吨，增幅 18.91%，同比去年减少 26.03 万吨，减幅 24.04%。近 期国内菜粕需求开始有逐步转弱表现，近期油厂开机率有所下降，但总体供应充足，菜粕需 求下降，并且颗粒菜粕仍然维持高位，总体供应压力仍存。虽然菜籽菜粕后续供应存在不确 定性，但需求同样转弱，且近端仍有一定压力 ...

Group 1: Product Quality Control Changes - Before obtaining STC certification, the product quality control was relatively lax, with less than 10 pesticide residue detection items, failing to meet high-quality market demands [2] - After obtaining STC certification, the quality control system underwent a fundamental transformation, expanding detection items to over 30, including various trace elements and increasing pesticide detection to over 50 types [4] - The return rate due to quality issues decreased by 60% in the first sales cycle after certification, and consumer satisfaction increased from 65% to 90% [4] Group 2: Sales Channel Changes - Prior to certification, sales channels were limited, relying mainly on local distributors and covering fewer than 10 cities, resulting in lower average prices [6] - Post-certification, sales channels expanded significantly, with online sales through live streaming increasing monthly sales by 30%-40% and entry into major supermarket chains raising average prices by 5-8 yuan per kilogram [6] Group 3: Promotion Model Changes - Before certification, the promotion model was simplistic, participating in only 2-3 regional fairs annually, with minimal order amounts [8] - After obtaining certification, the promotion model diversified, participating in international agricultural exhibitions and attracting over 20 buyers, resulting in intention orders worth 2 million yuan [8]

Core Insights - The company has significantly improved its market competitiveness and future development prospects since obtaining the "STC Hong Kong Quality Certification" [1] Production and Management - The company has successfully transferred 5,000 acres of rice planting base and invested in soil improvement and irrigation facility upgrades, ensuring a stable and sustainable growth environment for rice [3] - The yield per acre has increased by approximately 10% due to scientific planning and meticulous management, enhancing both the quality and quantity of rice production [3] - The company has established partnerships with over 200 farmers to promote standardized planting techniques, laying a solid foundation for high-quality rice production [3] Production Efficiency - The company has upgraded its production lines with advanced intelligent equipment, increasing the rice processing capacity from 8 tons to 10 tons per hour while reducing manual intervention [5] - The production process is now more standardized, ensuring consistent product quality through rigorous quality control measures, with a product pass rate exceeding 99% since certification [5] Sales and Marketing - Annual sales volume increased from 5,000 tons to 8,000 tons after obtaining the STC certification, with the proportion of sales through e-commerce channels rising from 20% to 40% [7] - The company has formed long-term partnerships with high-end supermarkets and specialty grain and oil stores, enhancing market coverage and brand reputation [7] Brand Promotion - The company actively participates in domestic and international agricultural product exhibitions, showcasing its premium rice products and attracting professional buyers and consumers [9] - Following recommendations from industry experts and food bloggers, sales increased by approximately 15% within a month [9] - The company conducts offline interactive activities, such as rice cooking competitions and healthy eating seminars, to enhance consumer engagement and brand loyalty, with an average participation of over 200 people per event [9]

现货价格大体平稳，期货震荡为主 现货价格大体平稳，期货震荡为主 本周各地花生市场行情延续稳中偏弱调整，价格重心下沉，基层货源收购基本结束，东北产区局部地区基层零星供应 量，收购商大多停工歇业，贸易商按需采购，观望为主，成交清淡。产区温度偏高，货源质量参差不齐，部分库外货 源质量差，报价偏低，拉低整体报价。但价格亦有支撑：流通环节库存水平不高，加上库存成本的增加，冷库内货源 短时间内料难低价供应市场；进口花生米数量同比大幅下降。 观点：据各方数据统计，新季花生种植面积小幅增加，排除极端天气影响下，新季花生总产量预计维持高位。市场入 市心态谨慎，在需求好转前，花生价格或难改弱势，不过库存压力不大，持货商挺价心理难以瓦解，或将继续为花生 价格下跌的幅度构成一定支撑。内贸市场销量无任何起色，贸易商补库谨慎，产区商品米库存消耗进度迟缓。短期看 现货价格维持区间震荡偏弱概率偏大，远期行情主要关注天气影响新季花生长势情况以及市场需求是否有明显改观。 期货方面，中短期行情需关注区间8000-8400两端价格表现，趋势行情或仍需等待。 2：行情回顾 正信期货花生周报 20250707 农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本 ...

(活力中国调研行)江西省"十四五"农业产业化发展实现新突破 中新网南昌7月7日电(记者 苏婧欣 姜涛)江西省农业农村厅副厅长李文信7日表示，"十四五"以来，江西 省通过转变思维理念，推动农业产业化发展实现新突破。2024年全省涉农主体实现销售收入3672.2亿元 人民币，同比增长9.9%。 7月7日，2025年"活力中国调研行"江西主题采访启动暨情况介绍会在南昌召开。刘力鑫 摄 为保证农产品物流畅通，江西省还建立了"1+10+N"的供应链体系，引育供应链企业20家，建成15个冷 链物流骨干节点，新增开通建设7条物流干支线，建成冷冻冷藏库容40.94万吨、常温库容25.81万吨。 李文信在2025年"活力中国调研行"江西主题采访启动暨情况介绍会上说，"十四五"以来，江西省坚持以 工业化理念和市场思维、创新思维、互联网思维推进农业产业化高质量发展。 此外，通过平台引流、电商销售、爆品打造，江西农产品电商呈现爆发式增长。李文信说，目前江西省 已推动1914款优质农产品进驻高端商超餐饮平台，打造年销售额超千万爆品296款；2022年以来，农产 品电商零售连续突破100亿、200亿、300亿元大关，每年以50%以上增速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The event aims to promote Chinese geographical indication products internationally, enhancing public awareness of high-quality food and integrating local enterprises into the global green agricultural supply chain [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) hosted a promotional event for geographical indication products in Beijing on July 4, 2025 [1]. - The event featured representatives from various regions discussing their geographical indication industries and quality safety systems [1]. Group 2: Regional Highlights - Fuding City in Fujian Province reported a tea garden area of 319,100 acres, with a total tea production of 41,000 tons and an industry output value of 15.518 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The "Hua Ju Hong" product from Huazhou, Guangdong, has been a national geographical indication protected product since 2006, with a comprehensive quality control system in place [2]. - Dongying City in Shandong Province has developed 11 geographical indication agricultural products, leveraging its unique resources to enhance brand value and market competitiveness [3]. Group 3: Industry Statistics - As of the end of 2024, China has recognized a total of 2,544 geographical indication products, with a direct output value exceeding 960 billion yuan, showing stable growth over the years [4]. - The CCPIT emphasizes the importance of integrating high-quality geographical indication products into the global agricultural supply chain as a key step for enhancing international competitiveness [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig price has retreated from its high, with the latest price at 14.94 CNY/kg and the average weight at 128.64 kg. The complete cost for leading enterprises has decreased to around 12 CNY/kg, indicating a potential for profit maintenance and valuation recovery [6][17][18] - The report emphasizes a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [18] - The report recommends focusing on companies with a "platform + ecosystem" model, highlighting DeKang Agriculture and Livestock as a representative, along with leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [18] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is 14.94 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in average weight to 128.64 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets remains stable at around 530 CNY/head. The industry is experiencing a short-term rebound in prices after a slight decline [6][17] - The official number of breeding sows in May was 40.42 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%, indicating a stable production capacity [7][17] - The report suggests that the government's commitment to stabilizing pig prices is strong, and capacity regulation may continue to increase [7][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent stock chicks remains high, with the latest price at 47.93 CNY, a week-on-week increase of 5.25%. The price of broilers is 2.95 CNY/kg, down 12% week-on-week and 18% year-on-year [19] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [19] - The report highlights two main lines of focus: quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders [19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group, noting a cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to recover in 2025 [20][22] - The report indicates that the domestic capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - The report discusses the impact of potential tariffs on the pet industry, suggesting that the actual impact will be limited due to high profit margins and overseas factory layouts [23] - Companies with strong performance in their own brands, such as Guibao and Zhongchong, are highlighted as key focuses [23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight reduction in soybean planting area for 2025, with a forecast of 83.4 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [24] - The report emphasizes that agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, and a reduction in imports may help prices rise from low levels [24] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3982 points, up 1.54% from the previous week. The Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2729 points, up 2.55% [25][28] - The report notes that the aquaculture sector performed the best with a 5.13% increase [25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand, but in the short - term, the market's previously optimistic environment continues, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] - Precious metals maintain a strong and volatile pattern and continue the upward trend; non - ferrous metals maintain a mild increase; black commodities rise; energy prices follow the external market to rise; chemicals rise slightly; agricultural products rise gently [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 0.79%. Black and precious metals had relatively large increases of 1.79% and 1.25% respectively, while agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemicals rose by 0.54%, 0.36%, and 0.18% respectively [1][5] - Among specific varieties, the top gainers were rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore with increases of 2.57%, 2.56%, and 2.23% respectively, and the top losers were soda ash, LPG, and PTA with decreases of 1.84%, 1.74%, and 1.42% respectively [1] - The funds increased, mainly due to the inflow in the non - ferrous metal direction [1][6] 2. Outlook - The market focused on the passage of the US fiscal bill, tariff issues, and the signals of China - EU cooperation. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] 3. Sub - sectors Analysis Precious Metals - Gold is supported by factors such as the tense Middle - East geopolitical situation, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the weakening of the US dollar index. Global central banks' continuous increase in gold reserves strengthens its asset - allocation value. Silver is driven by gold but has weaker elasticity due to its industrial attributes [2] Non - ferrous Metals - The market is boosted by the improvement of macro - expectations and the weakening of the US dollar. Copper, aluminum and other contracts rise slightly, but the rebound is limited by the short - term fundamentals [2] Black Commodities - Rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore and other varieties rise, driven by the improvement of downstream construction, the increase in steel出库 data, and the expectation of infrastructure and real - estate policies in the third quarter. Iron ore is also supported by the decline in port inventory [2] Energy - Crude oil prices rise following the external market, driven by OPEC+ production - cut policies and the increase in US summer travel demand. Domestic crude oil futures and related products also rise, although high inventory still has some suppression [3] Chemicals - The overall chemical market rises slightly. Products like plastics and PP rebound mildly, and PTA and ethylene glycol rise due to upstream cost support. However, the slow recovery of downstream demand restricts the upward momentum [3] Agricultural Products - The agricultural product sector rises gently. Some oil and fat varieties perform well, and the uncertainty of crop growth due to hot weather also supports the market [3] 4. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally have positive returns, with a total scale of 1,554.56 billion yuan and a 1.48% increase. The total scale of commodity ETFs is 1,615.16 billion yuan with a 1.20% increase [34]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产相对平稳，沥青开工边际改善，出行强度保持高位。 【工业生产】工业生产相对平稳。 本周，高炉开工率同比基本持平前周，录得0.7%。化工链生产有所回 暖，纯碱、PTA、涤纶长丝开工同比分别+1.9pct至-3.5%、+0.4pct至2.2%、+0.5pct至4.2%。相比之下，汽 车半钢胎开工率大幅下滑，同比-7.7pct至-9.0%。 【建筑业开工】沥青开工边际改善。 本周，全国粉磨开工率同比+0.6pct至-1.3%；水泥出货率仍在低位， 同比-1.8pct至-4.2%。沥青开工率有所回升，同比+2.2pct至6.8%。 【下游需求】地产成交大幅回落，出行强度保持高位。 本周，全国新房日均成交面积回落，同比-37.8pct 至-32.7%；其中，三线成交降幅较大。货运方面，与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量有所回落，同比-3pct至 0.6%；集运价格有所回落、环比-1.9%，美西航线运价大幅回落。作为对比，人流出行强度持续上行，全 国迁徙规模指数同比+0.3pct至14.5%。国内执行航班架次同比+1.9pct至3 ...

就在美国准备对包括印度在内的12个国家下最后通牒时，印度突然宣布，将对美国部分商品加征高达7.25亿美元的报复性关税。 这一举动不仅打乱了特朗普精心布置的谈判节奏，更向全球释放了一个信号，印度不接受最后通牒，更不会任人摆布。 这场突如其来的反击，发生在美国对等关税90天缓冲期即将结束之前，7月9日，也就是两天之后，美国将正式对未签署贸易协议的国家，启动新一轮关税制 裁。 而就在这关键节点，印度以迅雷不及掩耳之势出手，在WTO框架内递交了正式文件，准备迎战美国的极限施压。 当特朗普忙着在社交平台炫耀"90天搞定90国"的关税战绩时，新德里的决策者们正翻着美国非政府组织十年来的资金流水。 今年3月，印度警方突袭8家美索罗斯系机构，意外发现一笔2100万美元的"民主援助"资金神秘蒸发。调查显示，其中1340万美元被用于培训邻国孟加拉国的 政治活动人士，直接导致该国总理在示威浪潮中下台。 这笔账让印度猛然警觉——那些年街头的反政府标语，背后是否也飘着美元油墨味？ 特朗普政府惯常的策略是设定一个明确的"最后期限"，以此施加极限压力。在与印度的贸易谈判中，7月9日就被白宫赋予了这样一层含义。 印度的"反击"战略，已经进入 ...