【导读】A股站上3800点，多家基金公司研判 3800点！说来就来！ 8月22日，三大指数全天震荡上行，截至收盘，沪指涨1.45%，突破3800点，再创新高。深证成指涨 2.07%，创业板指涨3.36%。盘面上，半导体、券商、算力板块大涨。全市场成交金额逾2.5万亿元。 "对于本轮行情而言，资金面充裕是行情上行的主要支撑，融资余额突破2万亿元关口后仍保持上行态 势，显示市场风险偏好提升。此外，进入8月，保险举牌再度进入密集阶段，外资流入也为市场贡献新 的资金。"刘翀谈道。 博时基金表示，7月受消费回落及投资转弱影响，经济数据与金融数据双双走低，但市场却表现强势， 凸显政策预期修正与资产重估逻辑。7月初以来，政策端连续释放积极信号：比如中央财经委员会会议 提出"反内卷"治理劣质产能，推动物价回升；个人消费贷款贴息、育儿补贴等政策针对性提振内需。未 来，市场更聚焦新质生产力的盈利修复与成长空间，同时居民储蓄搬家趋势、外资及险资等增量资金流 入也成为行情独立性的重要支撑。 中长期或仍将延续整体向好格局 对于后市，长城基金表示，9—10月将迎来诸多关键时点。随着8月业绩披露期的结束，新一轮日历效应 的来临、重要会议的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has surpassed 3800 points, raising questions about whether this marks the beginning of a bull market or a temporary rebound, with multiple fund companies suggesting a favorable long-term outlook driven by various factors [4][6]. Market Performance - On August 22, the A-share market saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.45% to break the 3800-point mark, reaching a 10-year high. The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.07%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.36%. The total market turnover exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan [2][6]. Factors Supporting Market Growth - Multiple factors have contributed to the A-share market's rise, including positive developments in the technology sector, such as the successful production of key measurement equipment for 28nm chips and advancements in domestic chip development. Additionally, a new policy tool worth 500 billion yuan is expected to support emerging industries like digital economy and AI [6][7]. Economic Indicators - Despite a decline in economic and financial data in July due to weakened consumption and investment, the market has shown resilience, indicating a correction in policy expectations and asset revaluation logic. Recent policy signals have aimed to boost domestic demand and stabilize prices [7][9]. Long-term Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, with expectations of a new market cycle driven by institutional reforms, changes in funding structures, and shifts in economic momentum. Factors such as the third round of deposit migration, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and inflows from long-term capital are expected to support the market [9][10]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include semiconductors, large financial institutions, cyclical stocks, and consumer goods. The semiconductor sector is particularly highlighted for its potential due to ongoing domestic innovation and the shift towards local supply chains amid U.S.-China tech competition [10][11]. Sector-specific Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a surge in investment, with a focus on domestic alternatives. The technology sector is expected to benefit from favorable trends and increased funding, while cyclical and consumer sectors may see opportunities as economic conditions improve [11][12].

智通财经APP获悉，佳鑫国际资源(03858)正在招股中。截止8月22日，辉立、富途、信诚等券商合计为 佳鑫国际资源借出146.8435亿港元，超购逾121倍。 （原标题：新股孖展统计 | 8月22日） ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong rally on August 22, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.45% to close at 3825.76 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 3.36% [1][2] - The total market turnover reached 25,788.42 billion yuan, marking a historical record with eight consecutive trading days exceeding 20 trillion yuan [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor chip sector saw a significant surge, with stocks like Cambricon Technologies and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) experiencing substantial gains, including a 14.19% increase for SMIC [3][6] - The rise in the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index, which increased by 8.59%, was primarily driven by AI chip concept stocks, indicating strong market interest in this segment [6][8] Rare Earth Industry - New regulations were introduced for the rare earth industry, focusing on total quantity control for mining and refining, which aims to regulate production and ensure sustainable practices [4] - The prices of light rare earth products have surged, with average increases exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton since August, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [5] Profitability of Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index Stocks - A total of 19 stocks within the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index reported profits in the first half of the year, with notable net profits from companies like SMIC and Ninebot [9][10] - SMIC reported a net profit of 1.32 billion USD in Q2, reflecting a 29.5% decline from Q1 due to operational disruptions, yet the company maintains a high capacity utilization rate of 92.5% [9][10] Investment Opportunities - The domestic AI computing chip market presents significant growth potential, with increasing demand for self-sufficient solutions in the face of global competition led by companies like NVIDIA [8] - Analysts suggest focusing on investment opportunities within the domestic AI computing chip supply chain, as local manufacturers are expected to accelerate development and capture market share [8]

AI算力芯片国产替代市场空间广阔。 8月22日，A股市场震荡走强。截至收盘，沪指大涨1.45%，站稳3800点，收报3825.76点；深成指上涨2.07%；创业板指上涨3.36%；科创50指数暴涨 8.59%，创下年内最大涨幅。全市场2802只个股上涨，2393只个股下跌。市场成交25788.42亿元，较昨日放量约1185亿元，连续8个交易日突破2万亿元， 创历史纪录。 | 内地股票 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | 3825.76 | 12166.06 | 1600.28 | | +54.66 +1.45% | +246.30 +2.07% | +10.88 +0.68% | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1247.86 | 2682.55 | 6060.82 | | +98.71 +8.59% | +87.09 +3.36% | +97.83 +1.64% | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4378.00 | 6822.85 | 5198.91 | ...

Market Overview - A total of 69 stocks hit the daily limit, with a limit-up rate of 87%, indicating strong market sentiment [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.45%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index increased by 2.07% and 3.36% respectively, with the Shanghai index surpassing 3800 points for the first time in over a decade [1][9] - The total trading volume for the day reached 2.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Stock Performance - Kosen Technology achieved a six-day limit-up streak, while Garden Shares and Yuyin Shares recorded five and four consecutive limit-ups respectively [1][10] - The semiconductor, CPO, securities, and computing power sectors saw significant gains, while gas, steel, banking, and dairy sectors experienced declines [1] Hot Stocks and Trends - The release of DeepSeek-V3.1 has spurred interest in domestic computing power chip concepts, leading to a surge in related stocks such as Tianpu Shares and Huasheng Technology [5][6] - Major semiconductor stocks like Cambrian and Haiguang Information also hit their daily limit, with Cambrian's market capitalization exceeding 500 billion yuan [5][6] - The computing power chip sector's strong performance is expected to continue, with potential upward pressure on hardware stocks as well [6] Financial Sector Insights - New account openings in the A-share market have surpassed 14.56 million, a year-on-year increase of 36.88%, indicating a steady influx of capital [7] - Securities firms are projected to see a 61.23% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year, reaching approximately 101.59 billion yuan [7] - Financial technology and securities sectors are experiencing renewed interest, with stocks like Xinda Securities and Everbright Securities hitting their daily limits [7] Commodity Price Movements - Prices for light rare earths have increased by 110,000 yuan per ton since the beginning of the month, while black tungsten prices have risen by 17.03% [7][8] - The tightening supply from major producing countries is expected to support ongoing price increases for cobalt and other metals [8]

[Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-8-22 [Table_Author] 策略分析师：郑小霞 [Table_StockNameRptType] 策略研究 市场点评 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 策略分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 权重领涨，再上新台阶 主要观点 ⚫[Table_Su 市场异动 8 月 22 日市场大涨，其中上证指数收涨 1.45%，创本轮新高并首次站上 3800 点。创业板指收涨 3.36%，同样续创新高。全 A 成交额 2.58 万亿，继续维 持高位。行业层面，多数上涨但也存在较大分化，其中电子（4.82%）、通信 （3.77%）、计算机（3.50%）、券商（3.42%）领涨，而银行、能源等下跌。 ⚫ H20 芯片停产、算力业绩持续超预期等催化，市场交投热情高涨，风 险偏好持续走强下带动创业板指大涨 今日创业板指大涨，核心原因在于：牛市热烈氛围下，成长科技叠加事件 催化加成，上涨弹性充分释放，同时作 ...

该行预期今轮股市升势将进一步延续，因目前市场杠杆水平温和且估值不高，估计潜在资金轮动或为股 市注入额外14万亿元人民币流动性，相当于可流通市值约16%。在券商股中首选中金公司(03908)、东方 财富（300059）(300059.SZ)及华泰证券（601688）(06886)，预期中金将最能受惠于中国内地及香港IPO 市场复苏与市况向好所带来的股权投资收益增长。小摩预期高息股将于第四季重拾动力，内银首选招商 银行（600036）(600036.SH)，同时亦推荐工商银行（601398）(01398)、中国银行（601988）(03988)及 交通银行（601328）(601328.SH)，均予"增持"评级。 摩根大通发布研报称，对中资银行及券商股持正面看法，建议投资者对中资金融股采用铃策略(Barbell Strategy)，即同时投资于高风险及低风险资产，预期市场资产轮动及过剩流动性增加，将成为股市上升 的关键驱动力。 ...

该行预期今轮股市升势将进一步延续，因目前市场杠杆水平温和且估值不高，估计潜在资金轮动或为股 市注入额外14万亿元人民币流动性，相当于可流通市值约16%。在券商股中首选中金公司(03908)、东方 财富(300059.SZ)及华泰证券(06886)，预期中金将最能受惠于中国内地及香港IPO市场复苏与市况向好所 带来的股权投资收益增长。小摩预期高息股将于第四季重拾动力，内银首选招商银行(600036.SH)，同 时亦推荐工商银行(01398)、中国银行(03988)及交通银行(601328.SH)，均予"增持"评级。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，对中资银行及券商股持正面看法，建议投资者对中资金融股 采用铃策略(Barbell Strategy)，即同时投资于高风险及低风险资产，预期市场资产轮动及过剩流动性增 加，将成为股市上升的关键驱动力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Futu Holdings is experiencing structural growth potential beyond traditional brokerage cycles, driven by clear advancements in its cryptocurrency business and strong performance in overseas markets [1][10]. Cryptocurrency Business Progress - Morgan Stanley highlights that Futu's cryptocurrency business, although in its early stages, is showing rapid progress with key data indicating significant growth [2][4]. - The company has introduced a long-term strategy named "RACE" to guide the future development of its cryptocurrency business, emphasizing user adoption and potential fee increases as market penetration grows [4][18]. - In Q2 2025, the value of customer-held cryptocurrency assets increased by 40% quarter-over-quarter, reaching HKD 4 billion, while daily trading volume doubled from approximately USD 20 million to USD 40 million [5]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Barclays has raised its financial forecasts for Futu, increasing the adjusted net income predictions for FY 2025 by 22% and for FY 2026 by 36.4%, maintaining a target valuation multiple of 15x EV/nominal EBITDA [14]. - Morgan Stanley has updated its valuation model, raising the target price for Futu from USD 160 to USD 210, reflecting a potential revaluation of the company based on its growth prospects [1][11]. Overseas Market Expansion - Futu's global strategy is yielding results, with significant contributions from overseas markets, particularly in Singapore and Japan, where client assets and trading volumes have seen substantial increases [8][10]. - In Q2 2025, client assets in Singapore grew by 26% quarter-over-quarter, while trading volumes in Japan surged by 50%, driven by localized products and AI tools [10]. Revenue and Profitability Projections - The removal of a previously applied 50% discount on revenue contributions from the cryptocurrency business has led to an 8% increase in revenue forecasts and an 11% increase in net profit projections for 2027 [18]. - The new target price of USD 210 corresponds to a P/E ratio of 25x based on expected earnings for 2026, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on future cash flow growth [18].