Core Insights - The price range for multi-crystalline silicon n-type raw materials is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan per ton, remaining stable week-on-week [1] - The number of mainstream signing enterprises for multi-crystalline silicon has increased to 5-6, but overall market transactions remain relatively light, with signing volumes consistent with previous periods [1] - Demand expectations for photovoltaic installations in Q4 are weak, with limited increases in battery component orders, leading to stable operating rates for silicon wafer enterprises and overall steady demand for silicon materials [1] - Three companies are resuming production this month, leading to a slight increase in multi-crystalline silicon output expected in October, although most companies have reached their order limits [1] - The number of operating multi-crystalline silicon enterprises remains at 11, with production plans indicating a peak in October and a gradual decline in November and December [1] - Domestic multi-crystalline silicon production is expected to be around 382,000 tons in Q4, a slight year-on-year increase of 3.0%, while the total annual production for 2025 is projected to be approximately 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3% [1] - The multi-crystalline silicon industry is undergoing a critical period of structural reshaping, with inventory slightly accumulating despite a significant year-on-year supply contraction, indicating weak terminal demand [2] - Industry policies and market expectations are expected to be the main factors supporting the stable operation of the multi-crystalline silicon market in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market for polysilicon remains stable with no significant price changes, but demand expectations for the fourth quarter are weak, leading to limited order growth for battery components [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan per ton, remaining flat week-on-week [1] - The number of main signing enterprises for polysilicon has increased to 5-6, but overall market transactions remain relatively light, with signing volumes comparable to previous periods [1] - Demand from the market is stable, with expectations for weak photovoltaic installation in the fourth quarter and stable operating rates for wafer manufacturers [1] - Three companies have resumed production this month, leading to a slight increase in polysilicon output expected for October [1] Production and Capacity Insights - The number of polysilicon producers in operation remains at 11 [1] - Some production capacity in the southwestern region is expected to undergo maintenance and reduction starting in November due to seasonal water shortages, with October anticipated to be the peak production month for the year [1] - Domestic polysilicon production is projected to be around 382,000 tons for the fourth quarter, a slight year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - For 2025, the total domestic polysilicon production is expected to be approximately 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3%, indicating a slight oversupply compared to demand, with an estimated inventory accumulation of 20,000 tons for the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market is experiencing a period of structural adjustment, with supply shrinking significantly year-on-year, yet inventory is still slightly accumulating, indicating weak terminal demand [2]. Price Summary - The transaction price range for n-type recycled polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 53,200 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [1][3]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 50,500 CNY/ton, also stable week-on-week [1][3]. - The average price for n-type dense material is 49,700 CNY/ton, with no fluctuation [3]. Market Dynamics - The number of main signing enterprises for polysilicon has increased to 5-6, but overall market transactions remain relatively light, with signing volumes similar to previous periods [1]. - Demand expectations for photovoltaic installations in Q4 are weak, leading to limited increases in battery component orders, while silicon wafer enterprises maintain stable operating rates [1]. - Three companies are resuming production this month, with a slight increase in polysilicon output expected in October, which is projected to be the peak production month for the year [1]. Production Forecast - Domestic polysilicon production in Q4 is expected to be around 382,000 tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1]. - By 2025, the total domestic polysilicon production is projected to be approximately 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3%, indicating a slight oversupply compared to demand [1]. Industry Participation - The companies involved in price statistics include Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, Xinte Energy Co., Ltd., and others [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the top silicon material companies are expected to achieve both volume and profit growth in Q3 2025, with price increases alongside ongoing cost reductions and impairment reversals [1][2] - The multi-crystalline silicon industry is anticipated to recover in terms of volume and profit under supportive policies, with prices having rebounded to Q2 2024 levels by the end of Q3 2025 [2] - The expected production of silicon material in October is 133,300 tons, slightly above the downstream production demand, indicating a potential supply-side reform impact [2] Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the silicon material sector, such as Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) and Daqo New Energy (688303), as well as monitoring trends in granular silicon new technologies [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - The game between weak reality and policy expectations continues, and the polysilicon futures market fluctuates widely. The industrial silicon market has a weak fundamental situation currently, but there may be a reduction in production in the southwest region at the end of October. The polysilicon market has high inventory pressure, and the price transmission to downstream products is not smooth. However, relevant policies are expected to be introduced in the long - term, which may bring opportunities for the market [1][3][8]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8520 yuan/ton and closed at 8505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton (-0.93%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 107,518 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 48,851 lots, a decrease of 452 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in East China was 9300 - 9400 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and the northwest remained stable [1]. - The consumption side: The price of organic silicon DMC was reported at 11100 - 11500 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic DMC price may have a small trial increase, but it may be under pressure this week if the actual situation does not meet expectations [1]. Export and Import - In September 2025, the export volume of primary - form polysiloxanes of organic silicon in China was 46,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47% and a year - on - year increase of 9.57%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.26%. The import volume in September 2025 was 7500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.46%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 71,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [2]. Strategy - The current fundamental situation is weak, but production may decrease in the southwest at the end of October. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity withdrawal, the market may rise. The short - term strategy is to operate within a range, and it is advisable to go long on contracts during the dry season at low prices [3]. Group 4: Industry Analysis - Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 21, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 50,210 yuan/ton and closed at 50,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 52,237 lots (56,806 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 121,870 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 51.00 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 25.30 (a month - on - month change of 5.33%), the silicon wafer inventory was 17.31GW (a month - on - month change of 3.16%), the weekly polysilicon output was 31,000 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 14.35GW (a month - on - month change of 11.85%) [6]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.70 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.39 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September. There will be a significant reduction in production in the southwest region in November. The silicon wafer production schedule increased significantly in October, but silicon wafer enterprises are expected to reduce production from November to December according to the association's quota [6]. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.32 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamental situation of polysilicon is average, with high inventory pressure. The production reduction in October did not meet expectations, and the price transmission to downstream products was not smooth. The cancellation of warehouse receipts in November will suppress the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations. In the long - term, it is suitable to go long at low prices. The short - term strategy is to operate within a range, with the 11th main contract fluctuating between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton and the 12th contract between 51,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8]. Group 5: Factors to Watch Industrial Silicon - The resumption of production in the northwest and the shutdown in the southwest; changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises; policy disturbances; macro and capital sentiment; and the start - up situation of organic silicon enterprises [5]. Polysilicon - The impact of industry self - discipline on the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises; the promotion of the spot market by the futures listing; capital sentiment; and policy disturbances [9].

Report Date - The report date is October 22, 2025 [2] Market Performance - The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract showed a weak oscillation. The closing price of the PS2512 contract was 53,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26%. The trading volume was 56,591 lots, and the open interest was 79,358 lots, with a net reduction of 435 lots [4] Spot Price - The transaction price range of polycrystalline silicon N-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The basis of the PS2512 contract was 4,000 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The expected production of polycrystalline silicon in October is not less than 130,000 tons, an increase of more than 30,000 tons compared to the monthly production before the anti-involution policy (June). The current production level can meet the terminal demand of about 63GW. The monthly expected production of silicon wafers and battery cells is 60.12GW and 47GW respectively, while the terminal demand has shrunk to about 10GW. With the export demand remaining at about 40GW, the pressure in the industrial chain will be transmitted from the bottom up. The weak fundamentals will drag down the continuous rise of prices, but the policy-driven factor takes precedence over the fundamentals. There is policy support for the bottom of the spot price, and the market also has positive expectations for storage or increased production cuts. Therefore, the spot price remains stagnant, and the futures price fluctuates widely within the current range. During the period when funds are sensitive to news, market rumors need to be treated with caution [4] Market News - On October 21, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 9,290 lots, a decrease of 140 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - From January to August, the cumulative new addition was 230.61GW, a year-on-year increase of 65%. However, the new addition in August was only 7.36GW, a year-on-year decrease of 55% and a month-on-month decrease of 33% [5] - In September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size actually increased by 6.5% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, in September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.64% compared to the previous month. From January to September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year [5] - From January to September, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed asset investment decreased by 3.1% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, in September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% [5] - On October 16, there were rumors that a polycrystalline silicon storage platform had been established, with the platform company's industrial and commercial registration completed (named "China Silicon Capacity Integration Co., Ltd.") and the co-managed account opened. However, a reporter from Securities Times learned from an authoritative industry source that the rumor was false [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices fluctuate and closed down 60 yuan/ton to 8,505 yuan/ton. September's export volume decreased by 8% month-on-month to 70,200 tons but remained year-on-year growth. In October, the supply of industrial silicon increased significantly, with a risk of inventory accumulation and price pressure. Although some enterprises in the southwest region reduced production, the impact on output was small, and the supply side still increased due to the increase in Xinjiang's output. Considering the potential increase in raw material costs such as coal prices and the rise in electricity prices in November, the future price center is expected to move up. Currently, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract falls to the low level of 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, one can consider buying on dips [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon rose by 0.2 yuan/kg to 53 yuan/kg, and the futures price fluctuated and slightly rebounded by 375 yuan/ton to 50,715 yuan/ton, with futures at a discount. On the demand side, the output of silicon wafers increased significantly, and the demand for battery wafers was supported by overseas purchases driven by India's ALMM policy and the demand for high - efficiency wafers in domestic centralized projects. It is highly likely that the output will increase in October. Whether the demand can absorb the increased output during the fourth - quarter rush installation and the increase in export orders will have a significant impact on prices. Currently, the polysilicon market is relatively stable. One should pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand orders. In the future, the supply in the southwest region will decrease during the dry season, which will support prices, but one should guard against the risk of inventory accumulation due to lower - than - expected demand [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash continues to weaken, with manufacturers' inventories and mid - stream delivery inventories increasing, highlighting the surplus. The weekly output is at a high level, and the surplus is obvious compared with the current rigid demand. Most of the inventory has been transferred to the mid - and downstream, and the trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. One can track macro fluctuations and the load - control situation of soda ash plants. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the operation idea is to short on rebounds [4]. - Glass manufacturers' sales are average, and they continue to cut prices. Hubei's price is basically at par with the futures market. In recent days, the futures market has continued to weaken, trading on the logic of a non - prosperous peak season and fundamental surplus. In addition, the mid - stream inventory in some regions remains high without obvious destocking. In terms of industry supply - demand, although the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the LOW - E开工率 remains low without obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the surplus problem. Currently, the futures market has been trading on the non - prosperous peak - season logic. In the medium term, one should pay attention to the spot trading rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the prices of overseas raw materials have been firm recently, and the significant destocking of dark - colored rubber still provides cost support for rubber prices. However, there is a strong expectation that the weather in northeastern Thailand will improve, and the raw material prices are expected to weaken. One should pay attention to future weather conditions. On the demand side, after the "Double Festival" holiday, most of the enterprises that had maintenance have resumed normal production, but the overall market has not shown obvious improvement. To control inventory growth, some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the enterprise equipment will operate stably in the short term, adjusting production according to their own orders. In summary, the short - term macro - environment has improved, and the rubber price has rebounded due to the improvement in fundamentals. One should pay attention to the raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, the rubber price may decline further; if not, the rubber price is expected to operate around 15,000 - 15,500 [5]. Logs - The log futures fluctuated yesterday, with the 2601 contract closing at 838 yuan/cubic meter, up 3.5 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong being 760 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu being 780 yuan/cubic meter. Last week, the inventory decreased. As of October 17, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week. On the demand side, the outbound volume increased. As of October 17, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters from the previous week. On the supply side, this week, 12 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 0 from the previous week; the total arrival volume is about 438,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 5%. Currently, there is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand of logs. The 01 contract is relatively strong. The new round of overseas quotes has increased, and the subsequent port fees are expected to rise, providing strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the futures price, and the 01 contract may be strong [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The spot prices of East China's oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon, SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on October 21 compared with October 20. The basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 increased by 60 to 845, with a 7.64% increase; the basis of SI4210 increased by 60 to 392, with a 17.91% increase; the basis of Xinjiang increased by 60 to 1045, with a 6.09% increase [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread of 2510 - 2511 decreased by 45 to - 40, a decrease of 900%; the spread of 2511 - 2512 remained unchanged; the spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 5 to 55, an increase of 10%; the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 5 to - 10, an increase of 33.33%; the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 15 to - 5, a decrease of 150% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, an increase of 9.10%; Xinjiang's output increased by 33,600 tons to 203,200 tons, an increase of 19.78%; Yunnan's output increased by 1,400 tons to 59,500 tons, an increase of 2.41%; Sichuan's output decreased by 800 tons to 52,900 tons, a decrease of 1.49%. The national operating rate increased by 6.07 percentage points to 61.94%; Xinjiang's operating rate increased by 13.39 percentage points to 74.00%; Yunnan's operating rate decreased by 5.68 percentage points to 41.71%; Sichuan's operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 44.94%. The output of silicone DMC decreased by 12,900 tons to 210,200 tons, a decrease of 5.78%; the output of polysilicon decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the output of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 46,000 tons to 661,000 tons, an increase of 7.48%. The export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 6,400 tons to 70,200 tons, a decrease of 8.36% [1]. Inventory Change - Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased slightly by 0.01% to 108,500 tons; Yunnan's factory inventory remained unchanged; Sichuan's factory inventory increased by 2.89% to 25,000 tons; the social inventory increased by 3.12% to 562,000 tons; the non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 6.45% to 317,700 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.92% to 244,300 tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material increased by 200 yuan/ton to 53,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38%; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged; the basis of N - type material decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 2,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.11% [2]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price increased by 375 yuan/ton to 50,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74%. The spread of the current month - the first continuous contract increased by 52,265 yuan/ton to 1,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 103.82%; the spread of the first continuous - the second continuous contract increased by 130 yuan/ton to - 2,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.22%; the spread of the second continuous - the third continuous contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 87.50% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly) - The output of silicon wafers increased by 15,200 tons to 143,500 tons, an increase of 11.85%; the output of polysilicon remained unchanged at 31,000 tons [2]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The output of polysilicon decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the import volume increased by 300 tons to 1,300 tons, an increase of 28.46%; the export volume decreased by 800 tons to 2,100 tons, a decrease of 28.16%; the net export volume decreased by 1,100 tons to 900 tons, a decrease of 56.83%. The output of silicon wafers increased by 30,100 tons to 590,500 tons, an increase of 5.37%; the import volume decreased by 100 tons to 400 tons, a decrease of 17.96%; the export volume remained unchanged at 6,700 tons; the net export volume increased by 100 tons to 6,300 tons, an increase of 1.96%. The demand for silicon wafers increased by 27,200 tons to 613,400 tons, an increase of 4.64% [2]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 253,000 tons, an increase of 5.42%; the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5,300 tons to 173,100 tons, an increase of 3.16%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 140 to 9,290 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Price and Spread - The prices of glass in North China, East China, South China remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly. The 05 basis decreased by 15 to - 76, a decrease of 24.59% [4]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly. The 05 basis increased by 6 to 2, an increase of 150% [4]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 3.37 percentage points to 88.41%, and the weekly output increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, an increase of 3.37%. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 2,000 tons to 161,300 tons, an increase of 1.16%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [4]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 5.84% to 62,824,000 weight boxes; the soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74% to 1.6598 million tons; the soda ash delivery inventory increased by 4.05% [4]. Real - estate Data (Month - on - Month) - The new construction area increased by 0.09 percentage points to - 0.09%; the construction area decreased by 2.43 percentage points to 0.05%; the completion area decreased by 0.03 percentage points to - 0.22%; the sales area decreased by 6.50 percentage points to - 6.55% [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex rubber remained unchanged; the basis of full - latex decreased by 340 to - 850, a decrease of 66.67%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton; the non - standard price difference decreased by 240 to - 600, a decrease of 66.67%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber increased by 0.25 baht/kg to 50.45 baht/kg; the FOB intermediate price of glue remained unchanged. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna increased by 300 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna remained unchanged. The market mainstream price of raw materials in Hainan decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 to - 5, a decrease of 10%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to 5, an increase of 200%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5 to - 50, a decrease of 11.11% [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 20,000 tons to 458,800 tons, a decrease of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 85,000 tons to 189,000 tons, a decrease of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, an increase of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons. The operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72%; the operating rate of full - steel tires increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52%. In August, the domestic tire output increased by 859,000 to 102.954 million; in September, the tire export volume decreased by 671,000 to 5.63 million. In August, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 46,000 tons to 520,800 tons, an increase of 9.68%; in September, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 80,000 tons to 740,000 tons, an increase of 12.12%. The production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand increased by 67 yuan/ton to 12,717 yuan/ton,

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market is experiencing strong supply and demand. After the holiday, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment has exceeded market expectations, and the market volatility has increased. From a seasonal perspective, downstream demand may experience a seasonal decline around the Spring Festival. Both upstream and downstream enterprises should seize the opportunity to conduct futures and options hedging according to their risk management needs [4][5]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to remain at a high level. Although the short - term demand is fair during the traditional peak season in October, the supply pressure in the polysilicon industry is significant, and future production reduction is expected. The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. - In the polysilicon market, the high profit has driven high production enthusiasm, but the terminal demand is weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. With the possible implementation of photovoltaic capacity control policies, the market shows a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is characterized by strong supply and demand but a weakening atmosphere. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 78,000 - 80,000. It is expected to decline in an oscillatory manner. Upstream enterprises should seize the opportunity to conduct selling hedging when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to stocking up at low prices or conducting buying hedging [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is under pressure. However, there is certain policy support at the lower price. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300. It is expected to oscillate within a range. Currently, an interval long - position strategy can be considered [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamental pressure has led to a significant decline in the futures price. Before the implementation of capacity control policies, the market may fluctuate. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. Previous long positions are recommended to be closed, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered in the future [15]. - **Arbitrage Recommendation**: There are currently no good arbitrage opportunities [16]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 75,700 | 0.00% | 169,108 | 138,434 | - 20,566 | 30,705 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,565 | 1.60% | 190,332 | 114,236 | - 17,557 | 49,303 | | Polysilicon | 50,340 | - 3.66% | 150,772 | 56,806 | - 11,421 | 9,150 | [16] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium reached 21,066 tons, a 431 - ton increase from the previous week, hitting a new weekly high. All lithium - extraction processes showed an upward trend. The total sample inventory was 132,658 tons, a 2,143 - ton decrease from the previous week, with an accelerating de - stocking speed, but the inventory remained at a high level. The downstream inventory decreased slightly [4]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly apparent demand for lithium salts reached 23,209 tons, hitting a new weekly high [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: With the arrival of the flat - water period, electricity prices in some south - western regions have increased, and some factories have shut down furnaces. There are signs of复产 in the north - western region, and the overall supply is expected to remain high [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: During the traditional peak season in October, the short - term demand is fair. However, the polysilicon industry is facing significant supply pressure, and future production reduction is expected [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Driven by high profits, enterprises are highly motivated to produce, and the production in October is expected to exceed expectations. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating significantly [8]. - **Downstream Situation**: The National Energy Administration announced that the new photovoltaic installed capacity in August was only 7.36GW, a new low for the year. Downstream production cuts are being gradually implemented [8].

Report Information - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract declined. The closing price of the PS2512 contract was 52,830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.66%. The trading volume was 71,494 lots, and the open interest was 79,793 lots, with a net decrease of 10,118 lots. The spot price of n-type polycrystalline silicon re-feeding material had a transaction price range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat month-on-month. The basis of the PS2512 contract was 4,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The expected output of polycrystalline silicon in October is not less than 130,000 tons, an increase of more than 30,000 tons compared to the monthly output before the anti-involution policy (June). The current output level can meet the terminal demand of about 63GW. The expected monthly output of silicon wafers and solar cells is 60.12GW and 47GW respectively, while the terminal demand has shrunk to about 10GW. With the export demand remaining at about 40GW, the pressure in the industrial chain will be transmitted from the bottom up. The weak fundamentals will drag down the continuous price increase. However, the policy-driven factor takes precedence over the fundamentals. There is a policy to support the bottom of the spot price, and the market also has positive expectations for storage or increased production cuts. Therefore, the spot price remains stable, and the futures price fluctuates widely within the current range. During the period when funds are sensitive to news, market rumors should be treated with caution [4]. Market News - On October 21, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 9,450 lots, an increase of 540 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - From January to August, the cumulative new installation was 230.61GW, a year-on-year increase of 65%. However, the new installation in August was only 7.36GW, a year-on-year decrease of 55% and a month-on-month decrease of 33% [5]. - In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year-on-year (the growth rate of added value is the real growth rate after deducting price factors). On a month-on-month basis, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 0.64% in September. From January to September, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year [5]. - From January to September, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed asset investment decreased by 3.1% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% in September [5]. - On October 16, there were rumors that a polycrystalline silicon storage platform had been established, with the platform company's industrial and commercial registration completed (named "China Silicon Capacity Integration Co., Ltd.") and a co-managed account opened. However, a reporter from Securities Times learned from an authoritative industry source that the rumor was false [5].

Group 1: 康方生物 (Kangfang Biologics) - The report highlights that the PD-1 drug,依沃西, has shown significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) for first-line lung squamous cell carcinoma, with median PFS of 11.1 months compared to 6.9 months for the control group, achieving a hazard ratio of 0.60 and a p-value of <0.0001 [1] - The company has received acceptance for a new indication application from the CDE in July 2025, with peak sales expectations in mainland China projected at RMB 7.1 billion [1] - The report maintains a buy rating with a target price of HKD 183, indicating a potential upside of 49.3% from the closing price of HKD 122.60 [1][2] Group 2: 协鑫科技 (GCL-Poly Energy) - The report indicates that GCL-Poly has turned profitable in its photovoltaic materials segment, reporting a profit of RMB 960 million in Q3, largely driven by a significant increase in polysilicon prices since late July [3] - The company announced a plan to issue 4.74 billion shares at HKD 1.15 per share, raising approximately HKD 5.392 billion for capacity expansion and other purposes [3] - The new national standards for polysilicon energy consumption are expected to tighten significantly, which may benefit the elimination of outdated production capacity [3] Group 3: 互联网行业 (Internet Industry) - The report notes a steady growth in e-commerce, with adjusted online retail sales for physical goods increasing by 7.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [8] - Key players like Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo are expected to maintain robust growth, with Alibaba's GMV growth aligning with market trends and JD's retail growth remaining stable [8][9] - The report emphasizes the potential of instant retail as a growth driver, particularly with the extended promotional periods leading up to major sales events [8][9]