晨 星 月 报 01 市场洞察 宏观经济延续上月承压走势，股债表现分化 5月，国内宏观经济走势有所改善，但依旧承压。反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得 49.5%，在4月份49.0%的基础上回升0.5%，连续两个月位于收缩区间。制造业景气水平的上升 主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数、原料库存指数和从业人员指数环比上行所带来的影响。4 月份CPI同比下降0.1%，PPI同比下降2.7%。相比于3月份CPI和PPI同比分别下降0.1%和下降 2.5%而言，CPI同比涨幅持平主要是受到食品价格降幅收窄和服务价格上涨的影响；生产资料 价格和生活资料价格的降幅扩大，带动PPI同比降幅上升。 5月，中美关税冲突有所缓和，叠加央行降准降息政策的落地推动A股在上旬回暖。随着市场 对关税利好的消化，下旬，受到特朗普贸易政策不确定性的延续及4月经济数据边际偏弱的影 响，股市出现小幅回落。主要股指在5月迎来普涨，其中上证指数和深证成指分别上涨2.09% 和1.42%。代表大盘股、中盘股和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指数分别上 涨1.85%、0.70%和1.28%。31个申万行业多数收涨，其中25个行业上涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The current large basis of stock index futures reflects market hedging demand, which depends on the existence of obvious Alpha returns. The market's focus remains on the consumer and technology sectors. The high - tech manufacturing industry in China is in a capital expenditure expansion cycle, and the consumer sector benefits from policy support. In June, these two sectors are expected to be the main focus of the market. The bond market's focus has returned to changes in the capital side. Although there were concerns about capital tightening in June, after the central bank's operations, the expectation of capital tightening has weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - The stock index futures are expected to oscillate, and the bond futures are also expected to oscillate [1]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The large basis of stock index futures reflects market hedging demand, which depends on Alpha returns. Last week, the market's focus was on consumer and technology sectors. The high - tech manufacturing industry is in a capital expenditure expansion cycle, and the consumer sector benefits from policies. In May, the retail of three major white - goods maintained a high year - on - year growth rate (over 60% each), and passenger car retail remained booming (16% year - on - year). There may be a pulse in overseas demand for textile, clothing, and electronic products due to "rush - to - export" [1]. - **Bond Futures**: On June 10, 2025, the 30 - year bond futures main contract rose 0.35%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.09%, and the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts were basically stable. The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan. Capital interest rates declined slightly. The bond market's focus has returned to the capital side. Due to large maturing pressure of inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased government bond issuance, there were concerns about capital tightening in June, but after the central bank's operations, the expectation of capital tightening has weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 9, 2025, compared with June 6, 2025, IH rose 3.0 points (0.11%), IF rose 12.4 points (0.32%), IC rose 41.0 points (0.72%), and IM rose 67.6 points (1.11%) [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 2.0 points (- 0.08%), the CSI 300 Index rose 11.3 points (0.29%), the CSI 500 Index rose 43.6 points (0.76%), and the CSI 1000 Index rose 66.1 points (1.07%) [4]. - **Bond Futures**: TS remained unchanged (0.00%), TF fell 0.015 points (- 0.01%), T rose 0.075 points (0.07%), and TL rose 0.36 points (0.30%) [4]. Market News - In May 2025, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased 4.8% year - on - year (previous value: 8.1%), and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.2%) [5]. - In May 2025, the national consumer price index decreased 0.1% year - on - year. From January to May, the average national consumer price index decreased 0.1% compared with the same period last year [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their respective basis trends [7][8][11]. - **Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of bond futures main contracts, bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward US dollar against the RMB for 1M and 3M, forward euro against the RMB for 1M and 3M, US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [21][22][25].

Group 1 - The Qiantang (New) District recently held a conference to promote high-quality project construction for 2025, resulting in the signing, commencement, and completion of 34 projects with a total investment of nearly 30 billion yuan [1] - Among the signed projects, 16 projects have a total investment exceeding 15 billion yuan, including a 5 billion yuan smart manufacturing base for textiles and apparel, and a 2.5 billion yuan high-end digital factory for solid-state battery production [1] - The Dadi Pharmaceutical production base project, with a total investment of 2 billion yuan, will focus on the production of veterinary drug formulations and raw materials, highlighting the region's advantages in industrial clustering and innovation [1] Group 2 - The Hangzhou Meidike Microelectronics project, which began construction in 2022, has completed a semiconductor device production project with an annual capacity of 2 billion units, expected to start production by the end of the year [2] - From January to May this year, Qiantang signed 52 projects with investments exceeding 100 million yuan and completed 23 projects, maintaining the highest manufacturing investment in the city [2] - Qiantang District ranked first in the number of projects selected for the provincial "Thousand Projects, Trillion Yuan" initiative and achieved the third-highest investment completion rate in the province during the first quarter [2]

沪指6月9日上涨0.43%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有30个，涨幅居前的行业为医药生物、农林牧 渔，涨幅分别为2.30%、1.72%。纺织服饰行业位居今日涨幅榜第三。跌幅居前的行业为食品饮料，跌 幅分别为0.43%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流入35.37亿元，今日有16个行业主力资金净流入，非银金融行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨1.20%，全天净流入资金27.81亿元，其次是医药生物行业，日 涨幅为2.30%，净流入资金为20.27亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有15个，汽车行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金11.08亿元，其次 是计算机行业，净流出资金为11.05亿元，净流出资金较多的还有食品饮料、机械设备、通信等行业。 纺织服饰行业资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002721 | ST金一 | 1.49 | 4.81 | -10705.17 | | 002345 | 潮宏基 | -0.14 | 6.97 | -2475.30 | | 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook for certain segments within the consumer sector, particularly in the jewelry and tourism industries. Core Insights - The "old-for-new" policy in the gold and jewelry sector is expected to drive a transformation towards "self-indulgent jewelry" consumption. This policy will lower costs for consumers and stimulate demand, especially among women aged 30-50 for fashionable gold accessories. Over the medium to long term, this will encourage companies to upgrade their product offerings and shift consumer habits from "value preservation" to "regular updates" in jewelry consumption [2][4][15]. - The tourism sector is seeing a rise in domestic travel, with 119 million domestic trips taken during the Dragon Boat Festival, reflecting a 5.7% year-on-year increase. The total spending reached 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year. The report highlights a trend towards family-oriented and cultural tourism, with expectations for continued growth in travel demand due to supportive policies [4][15]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector showed mixed performance post-Dragon Boat Festival, with sectors like social services and textiles performing well, while food and home appliances lagged. Notable gainers included Junyao Health (+24.43%) and Spring Technology (+28.79%), while major decliners included Kuaijishan (-11.95%) and Midea Group (-4.25%) [4][13][14]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The report mentions that the summer tourism market is expected to be robust, with a 70% increase in travelers compared to last year. The focus is on family travel and immersive experiences [15][16]. - Companies like Suning and Anta have reported significant sales increases during the holiday period, with Suning noting a 128% year-on-year growth in sales for new products [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The "old-for-new" policy in the gold and jewelry sector is expected to drive a transformation towards "self-indulgent" jewelry consumption. This policy will lower costs for consumers and stimulate demand, particularly among women aged 30-50 for fashionable gold jewelry [2][4] - The domestic tourism market during the Dragon Boat Festival showed a slight increase in travel volume and spending, indicating a recovery trend. However, the overall tourism consumption data was relatively flat, with future policies expected to boost demand [4][15] - The report highlights the performance of various consumer sectors, with notable stock price increases in food and beverage, home appliances, and textile sectors, while some companies experienced declines [4][13][14] Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector showed mixed performance post-Dragon Boat Festival, with social services and textile sectors leading in growth [4] - Specific stocks such as Junyao Health and Springlight Technology saw significant increases of 24.43% and 28.79% respectively, while companies like Kuaijishan and Midea Group faced declines [4][13][14] Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The report mentions a significant increase in summer travel demand, with a 70% rise in travelers compared to last year, indicating a strong recovery in the tourism sector [15][16] - Companies like Suning and Anta Sports reported substantial sales growth during the holiday period, driven by consumer enthusiasm for new products and promotional activities [15][16] - The report also notes various corporate announcements, including acquisitions and stock sales, which may impact market dynamics [16][18]

- The "Four-Wheel Drive Model" issued multiple bullish signals for the TMT sector, indicating potential opportunities based on low-frequency thermometer metrics and crowding levels. The TMT sector remains at a relatively low position compared to the market, with slight upward movement after hitting a two-year low at the end of May[6][13] - Specific industries highlighted by the "Four-Wheel Drive Model" include electronics, computers, media, non-bank financials, food and beverages, textiles and apparel, communications, machinery, and military industries, all showing potential opportunities based on recent signals and market dynamics[6][13] - The "Four-Wheel Drive Model" uses metrics such as Sharpe ratio rankings and signal dates to identify potential opportunities in various industries, with recent signals indicating upward trends or crowding effects in sectors like electronics and media[13]

主力资金净流出的行业有24个，计算机行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金33.56亿元，其 次是机械设备行业，净流出资金为31.09亿元，净流出资金较多的还有汽车、电子、医药生物等行业。 美容护理行业今日下跌1.70%，全天主力资金净流出1.35亿元，该行业所属的个股共31只，今日上涨的 有7只；下跌的有24只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有6只，净流入资金居首的 是珀莱雅，今日净流入资金3971.12万元，紧随其后的是水羊股份、两面针，净流入资金分别为1833.96 万元、1635.86万元。美容护理行业资金净流出个股中，资金净流出超千万元的有7只，净流出资金居前 的有爱美客、贝泰妮、青松股份，净流出资金分别为3011.31万元、2875.18万元、1992.07万元。（数据 宝） 美容护理行业资金流向排名 沪指6月6日上涨0.04%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有13个，涨幅居前的行业为有色金属、通信，涨 幅分别为1.16%、1.00%。跌幅居前的行业为美容护理、纺织服饰，跌幅分别为1.70%、1.18%。美容护 理行业位居今日跌幅榜首位。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出212. ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations today, with major indices showing mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.45% [3] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a slight decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing down by 0.48%. Notably, stocks like SMIC and Trip.com Group saw significant declines [12][13] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains in the A-share market, with an increase of over 1%. Stocks such as Shengda Resources and Silver Industry reached their daily limit, while several others rose by more than 5% [3] - The communication sector also performed well, with stocks like 263 and Chutian Long hitting their daily limit [4] - Other sectors that showed positive performance included oil and petrochemicals, construction decoration, basic chemicals, and building materials [5] - Conversely, sectors such as beauty care, textiles and apparel, food and beverage, and media showed weak performance, with varying degrees of decline [6] - Concept sectors like glyphosate, nickel metals, shale gas, and lithium mining also saw significant gains [7] Notable Company Events - Longjin Tui (002750.SZ) entered the delisting arrangement period today, with its stock price plummeting by 36.28% and trading volume exceeding 40 million yuan [8][10] - The company received a notice from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding the termination of its stock listing due to financial performance issues, including a negative profit total and revenue below 300 million yuan for the previous fiscal year [11] - In the Hong Kong market, the pharmaceutical company Stone Pharmaceutical Group surged by 12.72% after announcing the approval of its adenosylcobalamin capsule by the National Medical Products Administration, which is expected to enhance its product line in the blood and nervous system treatment areas [13] Commodity Market - In the futures market, domestic silver futures saw a significant increase of over 4%, with prices surpassing 8,800 yuan per kilogram, marking a new high since the contract's inception [15]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04% on June 6, with 13 industries experiencing gains, led by non-ferrous metals and communications, which increased by 1.16% and 1.00% respectively [1] - The textile and apparel industry saw a decline of 1.18%, ranking second in terms of daily losses [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 21.24 billion yuan, with 24 industries experiencing net outflows [1] - The construction and decoration industry had the highest net inflow, amounting to 0.79% increase and 775 million yuan in net inflow [1] - The computer industry led the net outflow, with a total of 3.36 billion yuan, followed by the machinery equipment sector with 3.11 billion yuan [1] Textile and Apparel Industry Performance - The textile and apparel industry had a net outflow of 457 million yuan, with 105 stocks in the sector; 44 stocks rose while 52 fell [2] - The top three stocks with net inflows were Xinhua Jin (579.38 million yuan), Huijie Co. (364.57 million yuan), and Xinlong Holdings (134.38 million yuan) [2] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included Mankalon (-733.12 million yuan), Tanshizhe (-676.30 million yuan), and Jinhong Group (-666.39 million yuan) [2][3] Key Stocks in Textile and Apparel - Top inflow stocks: - Xinhua Jin: +9.98%, 12.52% turnover, 579.38 million yuan inflow - Huijie Co.: +4.80%, 13.69% turnover, 364.57 million yuan inflow - Xinlong Holdings: +2.59%, 5.53% turnover, 134.38 million yuan inflow [2] - Top outflow stocks: - Mankalon: -7.58%, 21.69% turnover, -733.12 million yuan outflow - Tanshizhe: -4.00%, 6.50% turnover, -676.30 million yuan outflow - Jinhong Group: -7.54%, 20.67% turnover, -666.39 million yuan outflow [3]