2025年05月09日 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 9 日 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修复基差，盘面下方仍有支撑 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：库存小幅去化，绝对值偏高制约反弹 | 4 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势状态，关注市场情绪 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单注销，市场情绪进一步发酵 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）据 3 月 18 日钢联资讯，经过 1-2 月的减产，目前印尼 GNI 镍铁项目产线已逐步恢复，产能利用率 在 3 月内从三成增至五成，预计该工厂 3 月内产量增加约 0.2 万金属吨/月。4 月该工厂将继续提高产能 利用率，计划 4 月底实现正常生产状态。 2）印尼政府近期对非税国家收入提出相关调整建议，镍矿、镍铁、镍生铁和镍锍资源税率分别由 10%、 2%、5%和 2%提高至浮动区间 14%-19%、5%-7%、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Indonesia's PNBP policy is set to be implemented on the 26th, but its impact on cost increase is expected to be limited. The domestic trade prices of Indonesian nickel ore showed mixed trends last week, while the premium remained stable [4]. - In the stainless - steel market, the nickel - iron in the raw material segment weakened slightly, but the ferro - chrome remained strong, providing effective cost support. Production cuts were observed on the supply side, and inventory decreased significantly last week due to pre - May Day stocking. In May, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with cost providing a bottom - line and demand acting as a constraint [4]. - In the new energy sector, the supply of MHP was tighter than expected, and there may be pressure on the demand side of nickel sulfate. In May, with the recovery of raw material supply and the weakening of stocking demand, prices may lack support [4]. - For primary nickel, the domestic social inventory continued to increase last week, indicating growing oversupply pressure. In May, the nickel ore and MHP segments are relatively strong in the short term, and over - bearish views are not advisable. However, in the long run, prices in the nickel ore, nickel - iron, and new energy industrial chains are expected to decline. If the inventory of primary nickel in China continues to increase, it will put more pressure on nickel prices [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly, Shanghai nickel fell 2.6%, and LME nickel fell 2.1%. The prices in the industrial chain recovered after a significant decline affected by the macro - environment. Weekly, nickel ore and nickel sulfate prices rose slightly, while nickel - iron prices fell [5][6]. 3.2 Inventory - LME inventory decreased by 120 tons to 202,470 tons last week; Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 42 tons to 24,800 tons; social inventory increased by 701 tons to 44,661 tons; and bonded - area inventory remained at 5,800 tons [5][12]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Nickel Ore - The price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with a grade of 1.2% decreased by $0.4 per wet ton to $24 per wet ton, while that of 1.6% increased by $1.5 per ton to $52.5 per ton. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained at $25 per wet ton, and the premium of low - grade Philippine nickel ore remained stable [4][5][18]. 3.3.2 Refined Nickel - Futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot premium decreased slightly [5][19]. 3.3.3 Nickel Iron - The center of the nickel - iron transaction price in the market moved downward [5][24]. 3.3.4 Intermediate Products - Production in Indonesia was affected, resulting in a relatively tight short - term supply [5][27]. 3.3.5 Nickel Sulfate - Raw material prices were relatively strong, and theoretical profits turned into losses [5][33]. 3.4 Demand 3.4.1 Ternary Precursor - Weekly inventory decreased by 263 tons to 14,195 tons [4][5]. 3.4.2 Power Cells - Weekly cell production increased by 7.9% to 24.98 GWh, with lithium - iron cells increasing by 10.7% to 17.37 GWh and ternary cells increasing by 1.9% to 7.61 GWh [4][5][50]. 3.4.3 Lithium - ion Batteries and New - energy Vehicles - From April 1st to 20th, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 478,000 units, a 20% increase compared to the same period last April, a 11% decrease compared to the same period last month, with a retail penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative retail volume this year was 2.898 million units, a 33% increase year - on - year. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 530,000 units, a 23% increase compared to the same period last April, a 7% decrease compared to the same period last month, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 3.378 million units, a 39% increase year - on - year [4][5][53]. 3.5 Stainless - steel Market 3.5.1 Price - Most stainless - steel spot prices fell last month, and the spot premium increased by 50 yuan per ton to 525 yuan per ton [65][66]. 3.5.2 Inventory - Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 11,979 tons to 168,000 tons month - on - month; the total social inventory of 89 stainless - steel warehouses in the national mainstream market decreased by 8,481 tons to 1,078,000 tons week - on - week, with the 300 - series decreasing by 21,476 tons to 701,470 tons [65][70]. 3.5.3 Supply - According to Steel Union statistics, two 300 - series steel mills reduced production to varying degrees this month, expected to affect April's output by about 40,000 tons [65]. 3.5.4 Cost and Profit - The finished - product prices were lackluster, and raw - material prices showed mixed trends [65]. 3.5.5 Consumption - According to the latest production scheduling report of three major white - goods released by Industry Online, the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in May 2024 was 37.75 million units, a 15.2% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year, and the industry continued to grow at a high speed [65][90][94]. 3.5.6 Supply - demand Balance - Production cuts reduced the pressure of inventory accumulation [65][99].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful transformation of Shandong Shengyang Holding Group from a coke plant to a leading stainless steel enterprise, showcasing the integration of industrial strength with cultural tourism through the "Industrial + Cultural Tourism" model [2][4][12]. Group 1: Company Transformation and Innovation - Shandong Shengyang Holding Group has evolved from a coke factory to a high-end stainless steel manufacturer, investing over 2 billion yuan in new projects and shutting down nearly 10 outdated production lines, resulting in an asset loss of approximately 5 billion yuan [6]. - The company emphasizes innovation, establishing an incentive mechanism and regularly conducting skill competitions and professional training, leading to breakthroughs in stainless steel composite plates and automotive parts, with some products reaching international leading levels [6][8]. Group 2: Social Responsibility and Community Engagement - The company's chairman, Xu Minghua, embodies the spirit of Yimeng by actively engaging in community initiatives, such as investing in a staff cultural center and promoting local cultural tourism events, reflecting a commitment to social responsibility [8][10]. - The company has adopted a "strong industry, wealthy employees, and praised society" approach, ensuring that corporate growth benefits the community [8]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Event Success - The 2025 Linyi City Third Motorcycle and Cultural Tourism Activity Week attracted 1,100 motorcycle owners and over 100 related enterprises, generating a transaction volume exceeding 2.02 million yuan in a single day [10]. - The event showcased the successful fusion of industrial capabilities and cultural tourism, reinforcing the company's role as a key player in the local economy [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the impact of tariff policies on various commodities, with many commodities facing price pressure due to tariff shocks and macro - economic factors. Some commodities are recommended for specific trading strategies, such as positive spreads for certain contracts and long - short combinations [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The implementation of reciprocal tariff policies has occurred. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [5][8]. - **Silver**: There is a need to be vigilant about significant downward price movements. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [5][8]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The US unexpectedly increased tariffs, leading to a significant decline in the outer - market price. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [10][12]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the downside potential. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13][16]. - **Alumina**: It continues to search for a bottom. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The macro - economic environment is bearish, causing the price to decline. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [17][18]. - **Lead**: Tariff shocks are putting pressure on the price. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [20]. - **Nickel**: The market is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the visible inventory is marginally decreasing. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [23][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is seasonal destocking, and there is a game between cost support and high production schedules. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [23][26]. - **Tin**: Tariff shocks have affected macro - sentiment, dragging down the tin price. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [27][30]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Negative sentiment and a weak fundamental situation have led to an enlarged decline. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [31][33]. - **Polysilicon**: The actual impact of the tariff increase is not significant. Attention should be paid to opportunities for long - positions on price pull - backs. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [31][33]. Energy - related Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: A weak fundamental situation combined with macro - economic drag has led to a downward - trending price. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [34][37]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the valuation may be significantly revised downward. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [38][39]. - **Rebar**: Concerns about systemic risks have increased, leading to weak and volatile trading. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [41][44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Concerns about systemic risks have increased, leading to weak and volatile trading. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [42][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It shows wide - range fluctuations due to resonance in the black - metal sector. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [46][49]. - **Manganese Silico - Manganese**: It shows wide - range fluctuations due to resonance in the black - metal sector. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [46][49]. - **Coke**: There is a divergence between futures and spot prices, resulting in wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [50][53]. - **Coking Coal**: There is a divergence between futures and spot prices, resulting in wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [51][53]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand has improved, but the price is under pressure. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [54][56]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The price of the original glass sheet has remained stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [57][58]. Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: Reciprocal tariffs between China and the US have caused cost collapse, and the price trend is weak. The price is expected to decline significantly after the holiday. The trend strength is bearish [60][63]. - **PTA**: Cost collapse and weakening demand expectations are observed. A strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA is recommended. The price is expected to decline after the holiday. The trend strength is bearish [60][64]. - **MEG**: China has imposed tariffs on US ethylene glycol/ethane. A strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA is recommended [60]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Tariff disturbances and a large decline in US soybeans have occurred. The Dalian soybean meal may be strong, but there is a risk of a pull - back after a rally [4]. - **Soybean**: It fluctuates with the soybean market, and there is a need to prevent a pull - back after a rally [4]. - **Corn**: It trades in a range [4]. - **Sugar**: It is dominated by macro - factors and follows the general trend [4]. - **Cotton**: There is a short - term downward risk [4]. - **Egg**: Attention should be paid to the 8 - 9 positive spread [4]. - **Live Pig**: The decline in the spot price is less than expected, and market sentiment is strong [4]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the supply of peanuts [4].