Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the home furnishing and paper industries, with specific recommendations for companies with high dividend safety margins and growth potential [3][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation movements. Industry consolidation is accelerating, and companies like Gujia Home, Sophia, and Oppein are highlighted for their strong dividend safety margins [3][5]. - In the paper industry, short-term stability in boxboard prices is noted, with an optimistic mid-term supply-demand balance expected to enhance industry profitability. Companies like Nine Dragons Paper are recognized for exceeding performance expectations [3][5]. - Bull Group is positioned for steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment, while new business areas such as overseas expansion and smart lighting present growth opportunities [3][5]. - Consumer sentiment is rebounding, with a focus on personal care growth stocks like Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou [3][5]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to improve market sentiment and demand. The increase in second-hand housing transactions is expected to support the demand side, leading to a long-term expansion of the industry [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of industry consolidation since 2025, with mid-tier companies exiting the market and capital entering leading firms, enhancing industry concentration [6][16]. - Companies to watch include Gujia Home, Sophia, Oppein, Mousse, and Xilinmen, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery [5][6]. Paper Industry - The report notes that boxboard prices are stable in the short term, with an anticipated improvement in the supply-demand structure that could enhance profitability in the mid-term. Companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper are highlighted for their strong positions [3][5]. - The report suggests monitoring the potential impact of anti-involution policies and demand changes, which could contribute to cyclical elasticity in the paper sector [7][8]. - Specific recommendations include focusing on companies with integrated supply chains and significant cost advantages, such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [7][8]. Bull Group - The Bull Group is expected to see steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment. The company is also expanding into new areas such as smart lighting and renewable energy, which are anticipated to drive growth [10][11]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages in product, channel, and supply chain management, which are expected to support stable growth in 2026 [10][11]. Consumer Goods - The report indicates a rebound in consumer sentiment, with a focus on personal care growth stocks. Companies like Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou are noted for their potential in the market [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing and paper industries, indicating potential for valuation recovery and growth opportunities [3][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation movements. Industry consolidation is accelerating, with a focus on companies with high dividend safety margins such as Gujia Home, Sophia, and Oppein [3][5]. - In the paper industry, short-term stability in corrugated box prices is noted, with an optimistic mid-term supply-demand balance expected to enhance industry profitability. Companies like Nine Dragons Paper are highlighted for exceeding performance expectations [3][5]. - Bull Group is positioned for steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment, while new ventures in overseas markets, smart lighting, and renewable energy are opening growth avenues [3][5]. - Consumer sentiment is rebounding, with a focus on personal care growth stocks such as Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou [3][5]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The sector is experiencing a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to improve market sentiment and demand. The increase in second-hand housing transactions is expected to support home furnishing demand, leading to a long-term expansion of the industry [5][6]. - The ongoing consolidation in the industry is pushing mid-tier companies out, while capital from industrial players is entering leading home furnishing firms, enhancing market concentration [5][6]. Paper Industry - Short-term price stability in corrugated boxes is observed, with a potential mid-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics expected to boost profitability. The report emphasizes the importance of integrated supply chains and cost advantages in companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [7][9]. - The report suggests that the paper industry is nearing a bottom, with cost structures supporting price stability and potential for upward movement in demand [7][9]. Bull Group - The company is expected to benefit from improving real estate conditions and consumer sentiment, with traditional business lines poised for recovery. New business areas such as smart lighting and renewable energy are anticipated to contribute to growth [11][12]. Consumer Goods - The report highlights a rebound in consumer sentiment, with a focus on personal care companies that are expected to show growth potential. Companies like Baiya and Dengkang Dental are noted for their promising performance in 2026 [14][15]. Packaging Industry - The report discusses the performance of overseas packaging companies, with Ball Corporation and Amcor showing strong results. Ball's revenue for FY25 reached $13.2 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year, while Amcor's revenue for FY26H1 was $11.2 billion, a 70% increase [15][16].

Group 1 - The stock price of La-Z-Boy (LZB.N) is reported at $37.62 as of February 11, 2026, with a cumulative decline of 2.31% over the past week and a price fluctuation range of 4.67% [1] - On February 10, the stock reached a high of $39.19, but experienced a single-day drop of 2.16% on February 11, with trading volume decreasing to $1.34 million (volume ratio of 0.43), indicating increased short-term volatility [1] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 17.41, with a dividend yield of 2.40%, and the total market capitalization is $1.552 billion [1] Group 2 - Recent policies supporting smart home, green environmental, and aging-friendly renovations have been introduced at both central and local levels, potentially providing structural opportunities for home furnishing companies like La-Z-Boy [2] - The "Shenzhen City Three-Year Action Plan for Optimizing the Consumption Environment (2026-2028)" emphasizes the promotion of smart home industry ecosystem construction and encourages renovations of old houses and aging-friendly modifications [2] - The 2026 China Home Expo (Guangzhou) and other platforms are focusing on smart and environmentally friendly trends, aligning with policy directions [2]

报告导读： 安全边际充足，政策预期有望驱动估值修复 。 基本短期暂承压，长期集中度提升空间广阔。 短期看，家居行业基本一方面仍受偏弱的竣工数据影响，终端需求相对平淡，同时 2025 年四季度及 2026 年 一季度叠加了同期因国补产生的高基数影响，短期表观的数据暂承压。中期看，积极的因素正在发生，头部家居公司在行业底部不断夯实基本功，持续推进渠 道融合贯通及产品研发创新，增速跑赢行业，实现市占率的提升。长期看，对比其他品类，家具家居集中度明显偏低，地产底部洗牌有望加速未来市占率集中 进程，龙头份额提升空间广阔。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 当预期照进现实，winner-take-all；报告日期：2026.02.11 报告作者： 刘佳昆（分析师），登记编号：S0880524040004 毛宇翔（分析师），登记编号：S0880524080013 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿 ...

股 票 研 究 当预期照进现实，winner-take-all [Table_Industry] 家居 家居地产链跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 安全边际充足，政策预期有望驱动估值修复。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 家居《高景气背后的产业趋势》2025.05.30 家居《以旧换新政策再发力，终端景气向上》 2025.04.11 家居《全面拥抱以旧换新，经营改善可期》 2024.12.08 家居《景气度仍待修复，渠道端积极思变》 2024.09.05 家居《消费沉浮之下，从贝壳视角看家居公司》 2024.09.02 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.11 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 请 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a series of measures to boost consumer spending during the upcoming Spring Festival, including financial support, promotional activities, and increased supply of essential goods. Group 1: Financial Support and Incentives - The first batch of 625 billion yuan in national subsidy funds has been allocated to local commerce departments [3] - A lottery for invoices during the nine-day holiday will have a prize pool exceeding 1 billion yuan [4] - Local governments have arranged 20.5 billion yuan in funds to directly benefit consumers through vouchers, subsidies, and red envelopes [4][13] - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop diverse financial products and services to support consumption [14] Group 2: Supply and Inventory Management - As of February 9, inventory levels for key supermarket items such as grains, meat, and eggs have increased by over 20% compared to the previous month, with vegetable stocks up by 7.7% [5][20] - Various regions are actively organizing supply chains to ensure adequate stock of essential goods for the holiday [19] Group 3: Consumer Experience Enhancement - The government is promoting a comprehensive approach to holiday consumption, covering food, accommodation, transportation, tourism, shopping, and entertainment [6] - Initiatives include encouraging restaurants to offer special New Year meal packages and promoting discounts in hotels and home appliance stores [7][8] - Airlines and railways will increase capacity and offer special services during the holiday [9] - Cultural activities such as traditional fairs and performances will be supported to enhance the festive atmosphere [10][11] Group 4: Collaboration and Community Engagement - The cultural and tourism sector is launching a nationwide Spring Festival consumption month with various initiatives to engage the public [17] - Sports events and fitness activities are being organized to promote community participation and well-being during the holiday [18]

Group 1 - Aopu Technology's stock price increased by 1.14% to 12.37 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 57.05 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.22%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 4.759 billion CNY [1] - The stock has risen for seven consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 10.64% during this period [1] - Aopu Technology, established on September 9, 2004, and listed on January 15, 2020, primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of home products such as bathroom heaters and integrated ceilings, with revenue composition of 81.99% from electrical appliances, 16.99% from materials, and 1.02% from others [1] Group 2 - Among Aopu Technology's top ten circulating shareholders, a fund under Taiping Fund has reduced its holdings by 300,000 shares, now holding 1.4 million shares, which represents 0.36% of the circulating shares [2] - The fund has realized a floating profit of approximately 196,000 CNY today and 1.666 million CNY during the seven-day increase [2] - The Taiping Fenghe One-Year Open-Ended Bond Fund, established on September 17, 2020, has a latest scale of 3.825 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 2.01% and a one-year return of 5.35% [2]

Core Insights - The integration of AI technology into daily life is shifting consumer expectations of "home" from mere functional spaces to emotional and healing "lifestyle solution spaces" [1] - The competition logic in the home appliance and furniture industry is evolving from a focus on product performance to a comprehensive competition involving experiential scenarios, emotional connections, and holistic service capabilities [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The core trend in home consumption is evolving towards creating "meta scenarios," where the demand for "rituals" shifts from social display to self-care, making "home" a sanctuary for emotional connections [2] - Brands are increasingly collaborating to align with this trend, as seen in Midea's thematic participation in the "Peak 24 Hours" event, which aimed to elevate the product experience into a healing space [2] - The personalization of smart appliances is emerging as a new consumer trend, with brands like Casarte and AUX creating products tailored to specific family scenarios [2] Group 2: Service and Marketing Innovations - Service capability is becoming a new competitive advantage for brands, with companies like Hisense and TCL focusing on integrating consumer needs with technology [3] - Marketing strategies have shifted from traditional advertising to interactive, emotional, and scenario-based communication, exemplified by JD and TCL's "Champion China Tour" event [3] - The collaboration between JD and brands like Lin's Home focuses on creating immersive experiences that blend online and offline interactions, enhancing brand effectiveness [3] Group 3: Future Industry Outlook - Industry leaders agree that the home appliance and furniture sector will evolve towards greater intelligence, personalization, and a focus on holistic value [4] - The future of manufacturing is centered on creating better consumer experiences, as emphasized by Hisense's commitment to enhancing life quality [4] - JD's "Peak 24 Hours" IP is redefining the concept of "home" as a comprehensive carrier of emotions, life renewal, and self-realization, positioning itself as an enabler and co-builder in the industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - A total of 23 stores from six well-known chain brands in China closed between February 2 and February 8, 2026, indicating a significant trend of store closures across various sectors [4]. Group 1: Store Closure Overview - The restaurant sector experienced the highest number of closures, with 11 stores shutting down, including at least 2 from Awen Soup Dumplings in Beijing and 9 from Shanghai Xiaonan Guo in Shanghai [6]. - The supermarket sector saw 2 closures, specifically from Wumart Supermarket and China Resources Vanguard, with Wumart operating for 8 years and China Resources for 16 years [6]. - In the convenience store sector, FamilyMart closed at least 3 stores, all located in Nantong [6]. - The home goods sector accounted for 7 closures, all from IKEA, with stores in cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Harbin shutting down [6]. Group 2: Reasons for Closures - The closures in the restaurant sector, particularly for Shanghai Xiaonan Guo, were abrupt, with customers unable to retrieve deposits for New Year's Eve dinners and employees reporting unpaid wages for several months [6]. - IKEA's large-scale store closures are attributed to multiple factors, including changing consumer habits favoring online shopping, a downturn in the real estate market reducing home decoration demand, and IKEA's strategy to optimize its business model by closing inefficient large stores and focusing on smaller community outlets and online channels [6]. - IKEA China announced a shift from expansion to targeted development, planning to open over ten small stores in key markets like Beijing and Shenzhen within the next two years, including new stores in Dongguan and Tongzhou [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for AI toys is expected to increase due to the upcoming Spring Festival, with AI toys becoming a new choice on the "New Year goods list" [4][23] - AI toys are transitioning from traditional electronic and educational toys to "smart companion terminals," with significant growth potential in the Chinese market, which is currently in the early stages of penetration [19][20] - The report predicts that the AI toy market in China could exceed 70 billion yuan by 2030, supported by advancements in AI technology and favorable local policies [19][21] Summary by Sections Weekly Special Report - The report discusses the release of demand catalyzed by the Spring Festival, emphasizing the potential for increased penetration of AI toys in the market [3][4] - AI toys are gaining popularity as they offer interactive features that appeal to children, making them suitable for gifting during the festive season [23][25] Weekly Market Review - From February 2 to February 6, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, while the ShenZhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.11% and 3.28%, respectively [31] - The light industry manufacturing index rose by 0.96%, ranking 9th among 31 industry indices, while the textile and apparel index increased by 1.32%, ranking 7th [31] Key Data Tracking Home Furnishing - In the week of January 25 to February 1, 2026, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.5129 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 24.93% [8] - The report notes a decline in residential construction and sales for the year 2025, with new construction area down by 19.8% year-on-year [8] Packaging and Paper - As of February 6, 2026, the prices for various paper products showed slight fluctuations, with white cardboard priced at 4,269 yuan per ton, remaining stable [51] - The report indicates that the industry may see improvements due to reduced competition and production cuts by leading companies [13] Textile and Apparel - The cotton price index in China was reported at 16,025 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.98% [10] - Retail sales for clothing and textiles in December 2025 were 166.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [12]