1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the performance of major asset classes in the week from March 9th to March 13th, 2026, including the equity market, convertible bond market, fixed - income market, and commodity market, and explains the reasons for the market trends [5][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Major Asset Performance - The equity market adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.51%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.13%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.62% [5][10]. - The convertible bond market weakened. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.1% in a week and 3.38% in a month, and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell 1.52% in a week and 4.02% in a month [5][10]. - The bond market weakened, with short - end adjustment. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield declined by 0.9bp, while the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose [5][10]. - Commodity futures showed mixed performance, with strong performance in crude oil. COMEX gold fell 3.05%, COMEX silver fell 4.78%, LME copper fell 1.04%, LME aluminum rose 0.23%, WTI crude oil rose 8.59%, SHFE rebar rose 1.75%, CBOT soybeans rose 1.83%, and CBOT corn rose 1.36% [5][11]. 3.2 Equity Market Performance - Stocks - The equity market fluctuated downward this week. The Shanghai Composite Index oscillated and recovered at the beginning of the week, continued to rise in the middle of the week, and fell on Friday [13]. - In terms of industries, most industries rose. The construction and coal sectors led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the losses. The national defense and military industry fell 5.3%, non - ferrous metals fell 5.07%, and petroleum and petrochemicals fell 4.22%. The construction sector rose 7.7%, coal rose 5.85%, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery rose 5.43% [13]. - The market rotation was still active. The market style switched again. Affected by the Two Sessions and geopolitical risks, the construction and energy sectors led the gains, the consumer sector adjusted, and the technology - growth sectors such as semiconductors and chips were relatively weak [13]. 3.3 Equity Market Performance - Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market followed the stock market down this week. As of March 13, 2026, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.1%, and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell 1.52%. In the past month, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 3.38%, and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell 4.02%. The trading volume of convertible bonds decreased, while the trading volume of underlying stocks recovered [17]. - The convertible bond market was weak this week, following the stock market adjustment. Affected by the Iran situation, the decline narrowed compared with last week. Funds switched from sectors with high previous gains such as military, technology, and non - ferrous metals to low - valuation and policy - favored sectors such as construction and coal [17]. 3.4 Fixed - Income Market Performance - Bond yields mostly rose this week, with the 1 - year Treasury bond yield slightly declining. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield declined by 0.9bp, while the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose [21]. - On March 12, the central bank governor emphasized the "moderately loose" monetary policy, and the Ministry of Finance refined the use of 1.3 trillion ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds, alleviating market concerns about long - term interest rate supply. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of fiscal tools and the actual performance of inflation data [21]. - In terms of the capital side, the central bank had net withdrawals this week, mainly due to the continuous withdrawal of cash after the Spring Festival and the high level of bank system liquidity. It is expected that the central bank will maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity [22]. 3.5 Commodity Market Performance - The Nanhua Commodity Index mostly strengthened this week, with strong performance in energy and chemicals and weak performance in precious metals. The comprehensive index rose 5.18%, energy and chemicals rose 9.76%, metals rose 1.11%, precious metals fell 1.52%, industrial products rose 6.29%, and agricultural products rose 2.72% [32]. - The gold price showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Geopolitical conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran led to a rise in international oil prices, and many countries released strategic oil reserves. The uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict still exists, and the hedging value of precious metals is still prominent. It is expected that precious metals will maintain high - level volatility in the short term [33][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High oil prices may push up US inflation, and if WTI oil prices remain above $90 per barrel for a long time, it could drive the US CPI year - on - year increase back above 3% or even 4%, affecting the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the US Treasury market. The longer high oil prices persist, the greater their upward potential may be [3] - Whether the US can provide escort in the Strait of Hormuz is a key factor for the persistence of oil price shocks. The US government has considered the escort option, but security risks have prevented its implementation [3] - Tensions between the US and Iran around Kharg Island have escalated, increasing the risk of sharp fluctuations in international oil prices [3] - Next week, the international financial and commodity markets should focus on the US - Iran game around Kharg Island and when the US can provide escort in the Strait of Hormuz [1][3] - International oil prices continued to rise, while domestic meat and vegetable prices declined this week. There were also changes in the prices and indicators of other commodities such as copper, aluminum, and steel [3] - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in February and March 2026 decreased compared to the same period in 2025 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - frequency Data Scan - Next week, focus on the US - Iran game around Kharg Island and when the US can provide escort in the Strait of Hormuz [1][3] 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The document provides multiple charts showing the relationships between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, etc., including the relationship between copper spot prices and industrial added value, and between RJ/CRB price index and export amount [19][28][55] 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - The document shows charts related to US weekly economic indicators, real economic growth rate, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate, and the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the central banks of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [85][89][93] 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - The document presents the seasonal trends (in terms of month - on - month increases) of various high - frequency data, including 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, LME copper spot settlement price, and Brent crude oil futures settlement price [98][106][112] 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The document shows the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [144][145][146]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall decline on March 13, with major indices showing varying degrees of decrease. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.03% [5]. Sector Performance - The chemical sector continued its strong performance, with companies like LuHua Technology and Jinmei Technology achieving two consecutive trading limits, while Jinzhengda, Hongbaoli, and Lutianhua also hit trading limits [2]. - The "real estate chain" sector led the market, becoming one of the main highlights of the morning session. The construction decoration sector saw a near 2% increase, with multiple stocks such as Yaxiang Integration, Yabo Co., and Meili Ecology reaching trading limits, and several others rising over 5% [3][5]. - The real estate sector also performed well, with an overall increase exceeding 1%. Stocks like Jingtou Development and Tibet Urban Investment reached trading limits, while others like Pudong Jinqiao and Shilianhang also saw gains [7]. Notable Stocks - In the construction decoration sector, notable stocks included: - Yaxiang Integration (603929) at 140.83, up 10.00% - Yabo Co. (002323) at 2.54, up 9.96% - Meili Ecology (000010) at 4.53, up 9.95% - China State Construction (601669) at 7.19, up 9.94% [6]. - In the real estate sector, key performers included: - Jingtou Development (600683) at 8.76, up 10.05% - Tibet Urban Investment (600773) at 19.00, up 10.02% - Pudong Jinqiao (600639) at 11.05, up 6.35% [8]. Other Sector Trends - Environmental protection, food and beverage, and beauty care sectors also showed strong performance, ranking among the top gainers in the market [9]. - Conversely, sectors such as comprehensive services, computer technology, and national defense saw declines [10]. - Concept sectors like fertilizer, phosphorus, and seed industry concepts exhibited strong trends, while cloud computing and remote office concepts weakened overall [11].

Macro Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI in February recorded 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from January's 49.3%, indicating continued pressure on the manufacturing sector, influenced by declines in production index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index [3] - In January, the CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 1.4%. Compared to December, the CPI growth rate narrowed due to a decrease in food prices, and the decline in both living and production materials slowed, contributing to a smaller year-on-year drop in PPI [3] A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market showed a fluctuating upward trend in February, with major indices recording gains. The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14% and 2.05%, respectively [4] - 23 out of 31 Shenwan industry sectors saw increases, with the comprehensive, steel, and building materials sectors rising over 8%. Conversely, the banking, non-bank financial, and media sectors fell by over 3% [4] - The steel sector's strong performance was driven by the implementation of the "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", which is expected to optimize industry structure and enhance concentration [4] Bond Market Performance - The bond market strengthened in February, supported by policy and market sentiment recovery. The central bank's actions, including reverse repos, helped maintain liquidity and boost the bond market [5][6] - The yield on 5-year and 10-year government bonds fell by 3 basis points and 4 basis points to 1.54% and 1.78%, respectively, while the 1-year government bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.32% [6] - The overall return of the bond market, as reflected by the China Bond Index, increased by 0.17% in February [6] Fund Performance - The Morningstar China Open-End Fund Index recorded a 0.72% increase in February, with all fund types showing positive returns. The stock and bond markets' strong performance led to gains in various fund indices [14] - Among equity funds, small-cap mixed funds outperformed large-cap funds, with average returns of 3.34%, 3.12%, and 2.55% for small-cap mixed, mid-cap balanced, and mid-cap growth funds, respectively [16] - Fixed-income funds collectively rose, with convertible bond funds, active bond funds, and ordinary bond funds achieving average returns of 0.33%, 0.25%, and 0.19%, respectively [17]

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows weakness, with a decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 2.5% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 2.5 percentage points to -0.3% [2][5] - Steel apparent consumption has improved, increasing by 4.4% week-on-week and rising by 10.6 percentage points year-on-year to 4.2% [2][8] - Steel social inventory continues to rise, with an increase of 8.3% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Petrochemical and Construction Industry - In the petrochemical sector, the operating rate of soda ash has increased by 1.7% week-on-week and by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year to -0.5% [12] - The operating rate of PTA has risen by 6.1% week-on-week and by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year to -2.8% [12] - In contrast, the operating rate of polyester filament has decreased by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [12] - In the construction industry, cement production and demand are showing signs of recovery, with a grinding operating rate increasing by 14.7% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points to 4.9% [20] - Cement shipment rates have decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 3.6% [20] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Trends - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased year-on-year to 9.7%, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 6.9%, 21.7%, and -13.9% respectively [43] - The freight volume related to domestic demand has increased, with railway freight volume rising by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year to 3.1% and highway freight vehicle traffic increasing by 20.2 percentage points to 26% [54] - Port cargo throughput has also increased year-on-year by 23.4 percentage points to 25.5% [54] Group 4: Price Trends in Agricultural Products - Agricultural product prices are showing a mixed trend, with vegetable and fruit prices decreasing by 3.9% and 0.6% respectively, while egg prices have increased by 1.1% [94] - The industrial product price index has risen by 5.0% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index increasing by 8.7% [107] Group 5: Export and Shipping Trends - The CCFI composite index has increased by 0.9% week-on-week, with significant rises in Southeast Asia shipping rates by 6.8% [84] - The BDI shipping rate has decreased by 6.1% [84]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Spring Festival misalignment" on economic indicators, suggesting that it may boost January-February data while suppressing March figures, leading to significant fluctuations in economic performance metrics [122][124]. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production shows signs of weakness, with a decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 2.5% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 2.5 percentage points to -0.3% [2][5]. - Steel apparent consumption improved, increasing by 4.4% week-on-week and rising 10.6 percentage points year-on-year to 4.2% [2][8]. - The operating rate of the petrochemical chain, particularly for soda ash and PTA, saw a notable recovery, with soda ash operating rates up 1.7% week-on-week and PTA rates up 6.1% [12][14]. Group 2: Construction Industry - The cement industry is experiencing a recovery in production, with a grinding operating rate up 14.7% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points to 4.9% [20][21]. - Cement shipment rates decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 3.6%, while the cement inventory ratio fell by 1.8% week-on-week [20][25]. - The average price of cement continued to decline, decreasing by 1.5% week-on-week [30]. Group 3: Demand Tracking - The transaction volume of commercial housing in major cities has decreased, with average daily transaction areas in 30 major cities falling to 9.7% year-on-year [43][46]. - Port cargo throughput and freight volumes related to domestic demand have increased, with railway freight volume up 2.1% year-on-year and highway truck traffic up 20.2% [54][56]. - The number of moviegoers and box office revenue has declined significantly, with movie attendance down 35.4% year-on-year [72][74]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing mixed trends, with vegetable and fruit prices decreasing by 3.9% and 0.6% respectively, while egg prices increased by 1.1% [94][102]. - The industrial price index has risen, with the Nanhua industrial price index increasing by 5.0% week-on-week, driven by an 8.7% rise in the energy and chemical price index [107][111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Production resumption is relatively moderate, with the growth rate of the resumption rate narrowing compared to the same period last lunar year. The resumption of real - estate projects is better than that of non - real - estate projects, showing a "faster in the south, slower in the north" pattern. Industrial production resumption is also mild, and the marginal change in the national production rhythm after the weakening of northern weather disturbances needs further attention [3][9]. - Land transactions have rebounded significantly, but the growth of new and second - hand housing transactions has narrowed. The land premium rate in 100 cities has reached a high level since 2021. New - home sales in first - tier cities remain relatively strong, while those in second - and third - tier cities have declined. Second - hand housing sales in 15 cities first increased and then decreased. The "small spring" of the real estate market in March 2026 and the possibility of incremental real - estate optimization policies in each city need continuous attention [3][10]. - International energy prices such as crude oil and natural gas have risen significantly. As of March 6, the IPE Brent crude oil futures settlement price increased by 27.9% from last Friday, and the UK natural gas price rose by 74.9%. Due to the attack on Iranian oil facilities and the near - blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the development of the Middle East situation and the transmission of rising oil prices to domestic PPI need to be focused on [2][11]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 1.1 Financial Market - Bond indices closed higher, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index rose significantly. Equity indices declined across the board. The gold - copper ratio increased slightly, the gold - silver ratio rebounded, the gold price fluctuated upward, and the silver price declined [12][14][16]. 1.2 Industrial Production 1.2.1 Power Generation - Coal consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces rebounded significantly, and the thermal coal price first increased and then decreased [18][19]. 1.2.2 Coking - The operating rate of coking enterprises declined marginally, while the prices of coking coal and coke futures increased [20]. 1.2.3 Steel - The output of rebar increased, and the futures prices of iron ore and rebar rose. The inventory of major steel products continued to increase, and the arrival volume of iron ore at six northern ports continued to decline [23][25][28]. 1.2.4 Building Materials - The capacity utilization rate of cement clinker increased slightly, and the copper and aluminum inventories increased significantly. The national cement price index declined marginally, and the glass price first decreased and then increased [28][29][31]. 1.2.5 Chemical Industry - The methanol operating rate decreased slightly, while the prices of crude oil and natural gas increased significantly. The operating rate of soda ash fluctuated upward, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Yangtze River Delta region rebounded, and the PTA operating rate increased significantly [40][41][42]. 1.2.6 Automobile - The operating rates of automobile semi - steel tires and all - steel tires increased significantly [45][46]. 1.3 Resumption of Work and Production - The resumption progress of 10,692 construction sites across the country was the same as that of the same period last lunar year. The labor attendance rate of real - estate projects was better than that of non - real - estate projects year - on - year [47][48]. 1.4 Logistics and Transportation 1.4.1 Freight - The road logistics freight rate index increased marginally, and the railway transportation volume and postal parcel collection volume both increased [48][49][51]. 1.4.2 Passenger Transport - The subway passenger volume returned to the pre - holiday level, and the number of domestic flights decreased [52][53]. 1.5 Terminal Demand 1.5.1 Credit - The negative spread between bill rediscount and certificate of deposit first narrowed and then widened, and the rediscount rate of six - month national stock bills declined [54][55][56]. 1.5.2 Real Estate - The land premium rate of 100 - city land transactions increased significantly, and the new - home transaction area first increased and then decreased. The new - home transactions in first - tier cities remained relatively strong, while those in second - and third - tier cities declined. The second - hand housing transaction area of 15 cities first increased and then decreased [57][65][69]. 1.5.3 Building Construction - The apparent demand for rebar rebounded, and the proportion of profitable steel mills declined slightly [69][70]. 1.5.4 Consumption - The total number of movie screenings decreased seasonally, and vegetable prices declined significantly. The average wholesale price of pork continued to decline, and the average wholesale price of fruits increased marginally [70][73][75]. 1.5.5 Export - The SCFI freight rate increased, and the port cargo throughput rebounded. The SCFI index increased significantly, and the CCFI index of most routes turned from decline to increase month - on - month [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the credit market from March 2nd to March 8, 2026, covering important credit events, new defaults, rating changes, new non - standard defaults, upcoming bond maturities, and credit bond issuance. It shows that the credit bond issuance and net financing scale have generally increased this week [11]. Summary by Directory I. This Week's Important Credit Events - On March 3, 2026, Luzhou Development Holding Group Co., Ltd. planned to transfer equity worth 1637 million yuan to the Luzhou State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which would reduce the company's consolidated net assets by 6.16% of the 2024 year - end audited net assets [2]. - On March 3, 2026, Shenzhen Konka A's approximately 199 million yuan shareholder loan to Sichuan Hongxinchen Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. was overdue. The company has taken measures to recover the principal and interest [2]. - On March 3, 2026, the entire shares of Jiangsu Sanfangxiang Jucai Co., Ltd. held by its controlling shareholder and its concerted party were judicially frozen, accounting for 81.29% of the company's total share capital [3]. - On March 4, 2026, Vanke's two loans totaling 347.97 million yuan matured and were extended for one year [3]. - On March 4, 2026, Shaanxi Construction Co., Ltd. and its subsidiaries were involved in 40 lawsuits and arbitrations with a total amount of 3062 million yuan [4]. - On March 4, 2026, Jilin Credit Financing Guarantee Investment Group Co., Ltd. was involved in three enforcement cases with amounts of 46 million, 72 million, and 124 million yuan respectively [4]. - On March 4, 2026, Vanke A responded to the question about the loan interest rate reduction, stating that it was working to optimize financing conditions and reduce interest costs [4]. - On March 6, 2026, the convener, Industrial Bank, announced a meeting for "21 Wuhan Bishui GN001" due to a significant decline in the issuer's 2023 net profit [6]. - On March 6, 2026, Dongfang Fashion Driving School Co., Ltd. announced that the "Dongshi Convertible Bond" was due on April 8, 2026, and the company expected to be unable to pay the principal and interest on time [7]. II. New Defaults This Week There were no new default entities and no new bond extensions this week [7]. III. Rating Changes This Week - Five issuers had their rating levels上调, and two had their rating levels下调. Two had their credit outlooks上调, and three had their credit outlooks下调 [8]. - The specific rating changes include Huangshan State - owned Capital Operation Holding Group Co., Ltd., Meituan, Zhongyuan Agricultural Insurance Co., Ltd., etc. [7]. IV. New Non - standard Defaults This Week On March 5, 2026, the Ruihaitianze Xianning Equity Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership) of Tianfeng Tianrui Investment Co., Ltd. defaulted, involving an amount of 7,312,330 yuan [10]. V. Next Week's Focus Next week, the maturity situations of bonds such as "23 Quanzhou Jinkong MTN001", "25 Dongyangguang SCP005", etc., need to be focused on, with a total repayment amount of 23.48 billion yuan [10]. VI. Credit Bond Issuance Situation - This week, the issuance scale and net financing scale of credit bonds increased. Both the issuance and net financing of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased, as did those of state - owned and private enterprises [11]. - Specifically, the total credit bond issuance this week was 192.489 billion yuan, a 169.25% increase from last week. The net financing scale was 68.07 billion yuan, an increase of 131.13 billion yuan from last week [11]. - For urban investment bonds, the issuance this week was 71.175 billion yuan, a 152.11% increase from last week, and the net financing was 11.721 billion yuan, an increase of 41.328 billion yuan from last week [11]. - For industrial bonds, the issuance this week was 121.314 billion yuan, an 180.43% increase from last week, and the net financing was 56.349 billion yuan, an increase of 89.802 billion yuan from last week [11]. - From the perspective of the nature of the issuing entity, state - owned enterprises' issuance this week was 184.769 billion yuan, a 166.27% increase from last week, and the net financing was 62.947 billion yuan, an increase of 126.274 billion yuan from last week. Private enterprises' issuance this week was 7.72 billion yuan, a 267.62% increase from last week, and the net financing was 5.123 billion yuan, an increase of 4.856 billion yuan from last week [11]. - The issuance and net financing of credit bonds of all ratings increased this week. For example, the issuance of AAA - rated credit bonds increased by 130.73% month - on - month, and the net financing increased by 74.956 billion yuan [14]. - The issuance and net financing of urban investment bonds of all ratings increased. For example, the issuance of AAA - rated urban investment bonds increased by 99.58% month - on - month, and the net financing increased by 2.883 billion yuan [17]. - The issuance and net financing of industrial bonds of all ratings increased. For example, the issuance of AAA - rated industrial bonds increased by 145.48% month - on - month, and the net financing increased by 72.073 billion yuan [20]. - For state - owned enterprises, the issuance and net financing of all ratings increased. For example, the issuance of AAA - rated state - owned enterprises increased by 129.96% month - on - month, and the net financing increased by 72.253 billion yuan [22]. - For private enterprises, the issuance and net financing of all ratings increased. For example, the issuance of AAA - rated private enterprises increased by 152.38% month - on - month, and the net financing increased by 2.703 billion yuan [24].

Supply and Demand - Construction starts show a mixed seasonal performance, with overall activity remaining acceptable[2] - Industrial production remains resilient, with overall industrial operating rates at historical highs for the lunar period[2] - Construction demand is recovering faster than in 2025, although appliance sales remain weak compared to the same period[3] Prices - International commodity prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with oil prices increasing sharply[4] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the South China Industrial Index showing robust performance[4] - Agricultural product prices, including pork, have seen a decline recently[65] Real Estate - New housing transactions have shown a year-on-year increase, with average transaction area in 30 major cities down 48.6% compared to the previous period, but up 18% and 22% compared to 2024 and 2025 respectively[5] - Second-hand housing prices have declined, with transaction volumes in major cities showing mixed results compared to 2025[71] Exports - AI product exports from South Korea and Vietnam continue to show strong growth, with expectations for China's AI exports to remain robust[6] - China's export market may benefit from rising energy prices, leveraging cost advantages in coal and new energy sectors[6] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with the R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.41% as of March 6[78] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 19,748 million yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[81] Risk Warning - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy measures[85]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The recovery and resumption of projects in the construction industry is expected to be stable year-on-year, with a national construction site resumption rate of 23.5% as of March 4, 2026, which is flat compared to the previous year [3] - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is likely to create new business demands for international engineering companies and building material firms, particularly those with high overseas business ratios [3] - Continued implementation of proactive fiscal policies is anticipated, with significant budget allocations aimed at supporting major projects, which will drive demand for construction materials [3] Summary by Sections - **Project Resumption Rates**: As of March 4, 2026, the resumption rate for real estate projects is 22.4%, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points, while non-real estate projects have a resumption rate of 23.9%, down by 0.3 percentage points [3] - **Impact of Middle East Conflict**: The military actions in the Middle East have led to increased oil prices and potential new infrastructure projects, benefiting companies like China National Materials, Northern International, and others [3] - **Fiscal Policy and Construction Demand**: The 2026 fiscal policy includes a public budget expenditure of 30 trillion yuan, with plans for long-term special bonds to support major construction projects, which will enhance demand for materials like waterproofing and coatings [3]