她认为，PPI分行业同比数据，从三个维度清晰展现了我国各项宏观政策持续发力显效，价格走势呈现 积极向好的变化态势。一是综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现，相关行业价格同比降幅收窄。具体来看， 煤炭开采和洗选业、光伏设备及元器件制造、锂离子电池制造价格同比降幅比上月分别收窄3.8个、2.0 个和0.7个百分点，均已连续多个月收窄；新能源车整车制造价格降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点。二是新 兴产业快速发展，带动相关行业价格同比上涨。三是消费潜力有效释放，带动有关行业价格同比回升向 好。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，当前，"以旧换新"政策发力，汽车、家电等商品价格同比数据上行 势头较为明显，这是近期核心CPI同比涨幅扩大的主要原因。 冠通期货研究咨询部经理王静告诉期货日报记者，11月数据显示，物价温和回升势头仍需加力巩 固，"反内卷"政策的力度有待进一步提升。创元期货研究员刘钇含也表示，11月物价水平基本已经筑 底，但工业品价格走势偏弱，需要继续出台提振需求的相关政策，促进物价水平进一步企稳回升。 王青表示，未来一段时间物价水平偏低格局将延续，这为年底前后稳增长政策发力特别是央行适度降息 提供了充分空间，当前无需担心 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November 2025, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from a previous increase of 0.2%[10] - The CPI's month-on-month change shifted from an increase to a decrease, primarily due to seasonal declines in service prices and lower energy prices[3] - Fresh vegetable prices rose significantly by 7.2%, exceeding the seasonal average decline of 3.2%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the CPI increase[13] - Pork prices decreased by 2.2%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.07 percentage points due to sufficient market supply[13] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In November 2025, the PPI's year-on-year decline widened, while the month-on-month change remained stable[4] - The PPI is expected to show a month-on-month increase in December, with a year-on-year decline projected at -1.8%[24] - The prices of upstream raw materials, such as coal and gas, are expected to rise seasonally due to increased demand[23] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to gradually improve prices in key industries, positively impacting the PPI in the long term[24] Group 3: Market Outlook - The CPI is projected to maintain a month-on-month growth rate near zero in December, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 0.5% expected for 2025[3] - The ongoing OPEC+ production increase is likely to keep oil prices under pressure, affecting the CPI negatively[3] - Core inflation is anticipated to see reduced support from gold prices, while seasonal increases in service prices are expected[3]

[Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 通胀修复，从 PPI 切换至 CPI 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 11 月 CPI 同比 0.7%，与预期持平，前月 0.2%。CPI 环比-0.1%，前月 0.2%。 剔除食品和能源的核心 CPI 同比 1.2%，前值 1.2%。核心 CPI 环比-0.1%，前月 0.2%。 PPI 同比-2.2%，低于预期的-2.0%，前月-2.1%。PPI 环比 0.1%，前月 0.1%。如何看待 11 月通胀数据？ CPI 环比符合季节性特征，翘尾支撑同比反弹。11 月 CPI环比-0.1%，略好于 2021-2024 年同期均值-0.2% （下文季节性对比均基于此口径），仍不及 2015-2019 年同期均值（0%）。同比方面，翘尾因素回升 0.6 个百分 点，推动 CPI同比回升 0.5pct 至 0.7%，创下年内新高。拆分来看： 一是食品环比上涨 0.5%，显著强于季节性（-0.5%），为主要拉动项。究其原因，受北方降温及南方暴雨的 双重供给冲击，鲜菜价格环比大涨 7.2%，显著高于往年季节性（-4.7%），单项拉动 CP ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [2][3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to increase, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after nine consecutive months of decline [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating stable inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth, influenced by seasonal demand increases in certain industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous month, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [4] - The increase in PPI was supported by rising prices in coal and gas sectors, while international oil price fluctuations led to a decrease in domestic oil and gas extraction prices [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are showing results, with price declines in key industries narrowing, indicating improved market competition [5] - Emerging industries are rapidly developing, contributing to price increases in related sectors, such as a 13.9% rise in external storage devices and components [6] - Future inflation is expected to remain low, providing room for growth-stimulating policies, with a gradual recovery in consumer prices anticipated [7][8]

点评：这表明产能治理与竞争秩序优化正逐步修复行业生态，新能源产业链供需格局边际向好，价格企 稳有助于企业盈利改善。短期板块情绪受提振，中长期需关注产能出清进度与需求复苏节奏，龙头凭借 成本与技术优势将率先受益，建议关注后续政策动向及库存周期变化。 丨 2025年12月11日星期四丨 NO.1 国家统计局：整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现，光伏等行业价格同比降幅收窄 12月10日，国家统计局解读2025年11月份PPI数据称：综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现，相关行业价格 同比降幅收窄。如煤炭开采和洗选业、光伏设备及元器件制造、锂离子电池制造价格同比降幅比上月分 别收窄3.8、2.0和0.7个百分点，均已连续多个月收窄；新能源车整车制造价格降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分 点。 NO.2 将成为刚果(金)新配额制度下首家出口钴企？嘉能可回应：不予置评 12月10日，云天化公告称，公司拟以协议转让的方式收购控股股东云天化集团持有的云南天耀化工有限 公司61.13%股权和云南鑫煌投资开发有限公司持有的天耀化工38.87%股权，收购股权评估价格为 3688.58万元。收购完成后，公司将持有天耀化工100%股权，天耀化工成为公司的全 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [2][3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to increase, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after a nine-month decline [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating stable inflationary pressure [2][3][8] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth, influenced by seasonal demand increases in certain industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous month, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [4][5] - The prices in sectors such as coal mining and gas production saw significant month-on-month increases due to seasonal demand, while oil-related sectors experienced price declines [4][5] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are showing results, with price declines in key industries narrowing, indicating improved market competition [5][6] - Emerging industries are driving price increases in related sectors, with notable growth in new materials and intelligent technology, suggesting a positive trend for future pricing [6][8] - The potential for moderate price recovery is anticipated, supported by stable domestic demand and effective policy measures aimed at boosting consumption [7][8]

国家统计局12月10日公布数据显示，11月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，涨幅扩大；扣除 食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。同期，工业生产者出厂价格 指数（PPI）环比上涨0.1%，连续两个月上涨；同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 11月份，CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点。国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示， CPI同比涨幅为2024年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。 （文章来源：证券时报） 扣除食品和能源的核心CPI被认为更能反映物价变化趋势。11月份核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个 月保持在1%以上。光大证券研究所宏观分析师刘星辰分析，支撑核心CPI上涨的因素中，金价上涨影响 继续扩大，但"以旧换新"政策对耐用品价格支撑减弱，节后出行需求回落导致服务价格涨势放缓。2026 年核心CPI同比能否保持上涨，或更多取决于服务价格的表现。目前已有的政策主要围绕服务供给增 加、落实和优化休假制度等方面促进服务需求释放，明年关注是否有需求端政策的进一步配合。 11月份PPI环比连续两个月上涨0 ...

◎记者 陈芳 11月，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，为2024年3月以来最高，核心CPI同比上涨1.2%； 工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比连续第二个月上涨0.1%，部分行业价格呈现积极变化。国家统计 局12月10日公布的数据显示，物价进一步企稳，需求稳步修复。 食品价格同比由降转涨 11月，CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比10月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月以来最高。国家统计局城市司首 席统计师董莉娟表示，CPI同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。 食品价格由10月同比下降2.9%转为11月同比上涨0.2%。其中，鲜菜价格由10月同比下降7.3%转为11月 同比上涨14.5%，为连续同比下降9个月后首次转涨。 11月，PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比10月扩大0.1个百分点。董莉娟表示，PPI同比涨幅扩大主要受到上年 同期对比基数走高影响。 "国际贸易条件改善，重点行业产能治理推进，部分制造业产品价格降幅收窄。"广开首席产业研究院首 席金融研究员王运金对上海证券报记者表示。 11月，光伏设备及元器件制造、锂离子电池制造价格的同比降幅比10月分别收窄2个和0.7个百分点，已 连续多 ...

Consumer Recovery - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% month-on-month but increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, indicating a continuous recovery in consumer spending [1][2] - The year-on-year increase in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to growth, with food prices rising by 0.2% after a 2.9% drop in October [2][3] - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant turnaround, increasing by 14.5% after a 7.3% decline in October, contributing approximately 0.49 percentage points to the CPI year-on-year [2][3] Core CPI and Industrial Prices - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [3] - Prices for services and industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, increased by 0.7% and 2.1%, respectively, contributing approximately 0.29 and 0.53 percentage points to the CPI year-on-year [3] - The expansion of domestic demand policies has positively impacted prices, with household appliances and clothing prices rising by 4.9% and 2.0%, respectively [3] Producer Price Index (PPI) - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking two consecutive months of growth, while the year-on-year decline was 2.2%, slightly widening from October [4][5] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to the optimization of supply and demand structures in certain domestic industries and the transmission of international commodity prices [4][5] Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - Continuous macroeconomic policies are showing positive effects, with a narrowing of price declines in key industries due to the ongoing governance of "involution" competition [5][6] - Emerging industries are driving price increases, with significant year-on-year price rises in sectors such as external storage devices (up 13.9%) and graphite products (up 3.8%) [5][6] - Consumer demand is being revitalized, leading to price increases in various manufacturing sectors, including a 20.6% rise in the price of arts and crafts products [6]

Core Insights - In November, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [1][2][4]. Price Changes - Food prices shifted from a 2.9% decline in the previous month to a 0.2% increase, contributing positively to the CPI [4]. - Fresh vegetable prices surged by 14.5%, marking the first increase after nine consecutive months of decline, significantly impacting the CPI [4]. - The prices of other major categories showed mixed results, with increases in other goods and services (14.2%), clothing (1.9%), and healthcare (1.6%), while transportation and communication prices fell by 2.3% [3][4]. Core CPI - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [4][6]. Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month but fell by 2.2% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to high comparison bases from the previous year [6]. - The prices in key industries such as coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showed narrowing declines, indicating improved market conditions [6]. Seasonal Demand Impact - Seasonal demand increases in certain industries, such as coal and gas, have led to price hikes in related sectors, with coal mining prices rising by 4.1% month-on-month [5][6]. - The demand for winter clothing and heating products has also contributed to price increases in textile manufacturing [5]. Consumer Spending - The ongoing consumer spending initiatives have positively influenced prices in various sectors, with notable increases in the manufacturing of arts and crafts (20.6%) and sports equipment (4.3%) [6].