Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue a fluctuating upward trend towards 2026, driven by the inflow of medium to long-term funds and sustained high trading activity [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In 2025, the A-share market showed an overall upward trend, with a year-end increase of 41.93%. The market experienced a pullback due to escalating US-China tariff disputes but rebounded with a series of policy measures and improved economic fundamentals [2]. - Key sectors that performed well in 2025 included non-ferrous metals, driven by geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions, and TMT sectors like communication and electronics, benefiting from ongoing technological innovation [3]. Group 2: Liquidity and Policy Support - The liquidity environment in the A-share market is expected to improve, with policies encouraging medium to long-term funds to enter the market. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on utilizing structural monetary policy tools to facilitate this [4]. - Increased policy support is anticipated, with measures to deepen public fund reforms and enhance the capital market's attractiveness and inclusivity. This is expected to lead to more mergers and acquisitions, particularly in technology and industry-leading companies [5]. Group 3: Economic and Structural Opportunities - The domestic economy is projected to maintain a stable upward trajectory, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and boosting confidence. The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [6]. - The focus on technological innovation and advanced manufacturing is expected to create structural opportunities, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and green transformation [8][9]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment should focus on technology innovation, particularly in areas such as high-end chips, industrial software, and agricultural technology, as these are expected to lead industry transformations [8]. - Advanced manufacturing should be targeted, emphasizing smart manufacturing and green transitions, which are crucial for enhancing supply chain resilience [8]. - The expansion of domestic demand and consumption upgrades should be prioritized, with attention to service consumption and digital life innovations, which are likely to unlock significant growth potential [9].

Group 1: Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of building a strong domestic market and expanding high-level openness, with specific measures to boost consumption and promote trade innovation [1][2] - The Ministry of Commerce aims to achieve a retail sales total of over 50 trillion yuan for the year, with a 4.0% growth in social retail sales in the first eleven months [2][3] Group 2: Consumption Strategies - Focus on cultivating service consumption and optimizing trade-in policies, with an emphasis on green and smart product consumption [3][4] - The Ministry plans to enhance consumption in lower-tier markets, which account for 70% of the population and 60% of retail sales, by improving circulation facilities and market environments [4] Group 3: Trade Innovation - The Ministry of Commerce identifies three pillars for trade development: goods trade, service trade, and digital trade, in response to global trade slowdowns [5][6] - Emphasis on diversifying markets, promoting balanced trade, and developing service trade through improved policies and international cooperation [6][7] Group 4: High-Level Openness - The Ministry will expand autonomous openness in various service sectors and enhance the implementation of free trade agreements to boost trade [8][9] - Plans to deepen cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative and participate actively in global economic governance, including APEC and WTO meetings [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stimulating domestic consumption and expanding high-level openness as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" to drive economic growth and strategic advantages [1][2]. - The retail sales of consumer goods are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan for the first time in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.0% in the first eleven months of the previous year [2][3]. - The service retail sector is growing faster than goods retail, indicating strong potential, with a focus on enhancing service consumption and optimizing policies to support new growth points in service sectors [3][4]. Group 2 - The strategy includes targeting underdeveloped markets, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, which account for 70% of the population and 60% of retail sales, to unlock significant consumption potential [4][5]. - The Ministry of Commerce plans to implement a "trade innovation development" strategy, focusing on diversifying markets, balancing trade, and promoting service trade to adapt to global economic challenges [6][7]. - Upcoming initiatives include the "China Year" at APEC and the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference, aiming to enhance global economic governance and promote multilateralism [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a strong domestic market in China, focusing on "demand-led, consumption-driven, and endogenous growth" as a strategic choice to adapt to economic changes and enhance resilience against international challenges [1]. Group 1: Domestic Market Development - Building a strong domestic market is crucial for achieving high-quality development and requires addressing structural contradictions between consumption and investment [1][3]. - The current economic situation shows a significant imbalance characterized by strong supply and weak demand, particularly in consumer spending [3]. - The transformation of "Chinese manufacturing" and "Chinese consumption" is essential for unlocking the potential of the vast domestic market, with manufacturing accounting for nearly 30% of global output by 2024 [2]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - China's retail sales are projected to reach 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, which is 2.4 times that of 2012, indicating rapid growth in consumer spending [2]. - The contribution of final consumption to economic growth is expected to be 44.5% in 2024, showing a decline compared to 2023, highlighting the need to boost consumer spending [3]. - The service consumption sector is becoming a key driver of economic growth, with its share of total consumption rising from 39.7% in 2013 to 46.1% in 2024 [5]. Group 3: Service Consumption Potential - Enhancing service consumption is vital for achieving a dynamic balance between supply and demand, with a potential increase in consumer spending of approximately 800 billion yuan for every 1% rise in the consumption rate [4]. - By 2030, service consumption is expected to exceed 50% of total consumption, contributing an additional 40 trillion yuan to consumer demand [6]. - The shift towards comprehensive, international, and intelligent service consumption is anticipated to drive innovation and transformation in various industries, including healthcare and tourism [6][7]. Group 4: Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are necessary to resolve the contradictions between investment and consumption, with a focus on "investing in people" to stimulate demand [9]. - Urbanization and equalization of basic public services are critical to addressing the lag in urbanization compared to industrialization, which could significantly boost consumer spending [10]. - The government plays a crucial role in facilitating economic transformation by optimizing the relationship between effective markets and proactive government policies [11].

Group 1: Consumer Trends - Service consumption has been a weak link in China's overall consumption, with significant potential for growth in this area [5][22] - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing spending on experiences related to health, fitness, and travel over traditional goods [19][24] - The younger generation (ages 15-25) shows a marked preference for emotional and experiential spending, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [7][24] Group 2: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to expand domestic consumption and optimize the environment for consumer spending [21][30] - Policies are being developed to enhance service consumption and remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [6][30] - The focus is shifting from material investment to human investment, aiming to improve quality of life and consumer experience [30][31] Group 3: Technological Integration - Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming a crucial factor in enhancing consumer products and services, leading to a transformation in consumption patterns [26][28] - The market for smart consumer electronics, such as AI glasses, is expected to grow significantly, with a projected shipment of 290.7 million units by 2025 [26][27] - AI is facilitating a shift from functional experiences to emotional connections in consumer products, creating new market opportunities [28][29] Group 4: Service Sector Growth - The service sector's share of total consumer spending is projected to reach 46.1% by 2024, indicating substantial growth potential in areas like healthcare, education, and personal services [5][22] - The government is focusing on expanding the supply of quality services, particularly in health, elderly care, and childcare sectors [6][23] - There is a consensus among industry experts that the service consumption sector has significant untapped potential that needs to be addressed [8][24]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese emerging technology industry is in the early stage of its lifecycle, with high valuations and significant innovation advantages expected to drive market capitalization growth for leading companies; the manufacturing and consumption industries are more mature, with solid global competitiveness and potential for valuation increases [3][66]. Group 1: Technology Industry Comparison - The overall lifecycle of China's emerging technology industry is early, with optimistic growth expectations reflected in valuations for AI hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals [72]. - The semiconductor, innovative pharmaceuticals, and communication equipment sectors show high valuations compared to international leaders, indicating market optimism for rapid profit growth and catching up [9][72]. - Internet companies exhibit weaker profitability and lower relative valuations compared to international counterparts, while consumer electronics have a notable overseas revenue share and moderate valuations [9][72]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing Comparison - The advanced manufacturing sector in China is relatively mature, with strong global competitiveness and significant valuation advantages compared to international leaders [68][98]. - The lithium battery sector leads in scale and profitability, with head companies generally having lower valuations than their international counterparts, indicating a strong cost-performance ratio [68][40]. - High-end equipment and new materials industries have profitability comparable to international leaders, but their global expansion potential remains significant [68][40]. Group 3: Consumer Industry Comparison - The product consumption sector in China shows strong profitability, but its growth is heavily reliant on domestic demand, leading to lower global competitiveness compared to international leaders [68][49]. - Service consumption is still in the early development stage, with lower scale and profitability compared to international leaders, but it has substantial growth potential as the economic structure transforms [68][49]. - Overall, the consumer sector has a relatively high cost-performance ratio, with opportunities arising from the transformation of consumption structure and the growth of service consumption leaders [68][49]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include leading companies in electric new energy, transportation equipment, communication devices, electronics, and service consumption sectors, which are expected to benefit from strong innovation advantages and global expansion potential [69][60].

（视频来源：央视新闻客户端） 国家发展改革委国家信息中心宏观经济研究室副主任 邹蕴涵：这两年的跨年，大家更重视仪式感。所 谓的仪式感，其实就是用一种方式、一场体验来做一场自我表达。通过一项活动串联起了很多活动，让 很多不同消费品类、业态在同一时间、同一地点一起发生，带来更丰富的感观或者精神需求的享受。这 是这两年非常突出的一种趋势，可以把它称之为服务消费的二次升级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities indicates that China's emerging technology industries, such as semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals, and communication equipment, are still in their early growth stages, with revenue and profitability lagging behind international leaders. However, the capital market has assigned high valuations, reflecting optimistic expectations for technological independence and industrial catch-up [1][3]. Group 1: Emerging Technology - China's emerging technology sector is characterized by significant growth potential, but it currently shows a gap in revenue and profitability compared to international leaders. The market has high valuations, indicating optimism for technological self-sufficiency and domestic substitution opportunities [1][3]. - Internet and application sector leaders have profit forecasts comparable to their overseas counterparts, with more attractive valuation levels. The acceleration of AI applications is expected to benefit internet platform companies, leading to valuation recovery and growth resonance [3][4]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - The advanced manufacturing sector in China is relatively mature, with a complete industrial system and significant cost efficiency, establishing strong global competitiveness. Key areas like lithium batteries lead globally in scale and profitability, while wind power, though less profitable, also has low valuations [4]. - There is a broad space for value re-evaluation in advanced manufacturing, particularly for companies with strong profitability and deep global expansion. Investment opportunities may arise from high-quality manufacturing firms expanding internationally [4]. Group 3: Consumer Sector - In the consumer sector, leading Chinese companies in product consumption, such as high-end liquor and beverages, demonstrate strong profitability, but their growth is heavily reliant on domestic demand, with insufficient globalization compared to international leaders [5]. - The service consumption sector is still in its early development stage, with lower scale and profitability compared to overseas leaders. The consumer sector overall presents high value-for-money from a valuation perspective, with potential growth opportunities in service consumption and globally competitive product brands [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the electric new energy, transportation equipment, communication equipment, electronics, and service consumption sectors. These companies are expected to accelerate their catch-up with international leaders or maintain their leading positions due to significant innovation advantages and strong outbound momentum [6]. - Specific recommendations include advanced manufacturing leaders benefiting from strong profitability and global competitive advantages, as well as emerging technology leaders in communication equipment, electronics, and innovative pharmaceuticals that are expected to see rapid profit growth [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese emerging technology industry is in its early lifecycle stage, with high valuations, while companies with significant innovation advantages are expected to see market value growth. The manufacturing and consumption industries are more mature, and companies with solid global competitiveness are likely to see valuation increases [1]. Emerging Technology - The Chinese emerging technology sector, including semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals, and communication equipment, is still in its growth phase, with revenue and profitability lagging behind international leaders. However, the capital market has assigned high valuations, reflecting optimistic expectations for technological independence and industry catch-up. Companies with technological barriers and significant domestic substitution potential are expected to benefit more [2]. - Internet platform companies are projected to benefit from the rapid iteration of large models and AI applications, leading to valuation recovery and growth resonance [2]. Advanced Manufacturing - The domestic advanced manufacturing industry has developed relatively maturely, establishing solid global competitiveness due to a complete industrial system and significant efficiency cost advantages. In the new energy sector, lithium battery companies lead globally in scale and profitability, with head companies generally having lower valuations than overseas leaders, indicating a strong cost-performance advantage [2]. - Wind power profitability is weaker than that of overseas counterparts, but valuations are also low. High-end equipment and new materials industries have profitability comparable to overseas leaders, with valuations at reasonable levels, but there is substantial room for global expansion [2]. Consumer Sector - In the consumer sector, leading Chinese companies in product consumption, such as high-end liquor and beverages, have demonstrated strong profitability, but their growth heavily relies on the domestic market, resulting in lower global competitiveness compared to international leaders. The service consumption sector is still in its early development stage, with lower scale and profitability compared to overseas leaders [3]. - The consumer sector overall has a high cost-performance ratio, with potential growth opportunities in service consumption driven by structural transformation and in unique product consumption brands with global potential [3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include leading companies in electric new energy, transportation equipment, communication equipment, electronics, and service consumption industries. Companies with significant innovation advantages and strong overseas expansion momentum are expected to accelerate their catch-up with international leaders or maintain their leading positions. The following sectors are highlighted for investment: 1. Advanced manufacturing leaders benefiting from strong profitability and global competitive advantages [3] 2. Emerging technology leaders benefiting from rapid improvements in Chinese innovation capabilities [3] 3. Service consumption and mass goods industries poised for growth due to structural transformation [3].

2025年即将收官，资本市场于震荡中积蓄力量，也在变化中孕育新机。站在布局2026年的关键时点，A 股市场将如何演绎？在长城基金近日举办的2026年度投资策略会上，长城基金权益投资部基金经理苏俊 彦以《由外转内，盈利修复下的新格局——长城基金2026年A股市场展望》为主题，为广大投资者带来 专业分享。 展望2026年，苏俊彦认为市场仍值得乐观期待，上涨动力或将从单一的估值驱动逐渐转向盈利+估值双 重驱动。结构上，有望从外需主导拉动，逐渐转化为外需、内需共振拉动的态势。 苏俊彦指出，内需有望回暖主要基于两方面：一是当前居民消费在国内GDP中占比较低，仍有较大提升 空间，未来几年消费提升将极大驱动内需增长；二是2026年国内有望进一步扩大财政开支，持续推动消 费回到合理水平。 "随着需求逐步回暖、供给增速放缓，我们有理由期待2026年出现盈利增长的拐点，且2027年趋势有望 强化。"苏俊彦表示，届时A股上行空间将有望进一步打开。明年可重点关注以下方向： 一是半导体与军工。半导体行业已处重要拐点，国产算力芯片有望迎来技术突破与业绩兑现。2026年 是"十五五"开局之年，新质生产力或将成为军工增长新引擎。 二是"反内 ...