Market Performance - Government bond futures opened high but closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.37%, initially up by 0.70%. The 10-year main contract increased by 0.10%, initially up by 0.25%. The 5-year main contract rose by 0.03%, and the 2-year main contract increased by 0.02% [1] - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a rebound in yields, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Guokai 15" yield rising by 1.7 basis points to 1.9430%, the 10-year government bond "25 Fuxi Guojia 11" yield up by 1.6 basis points to 1.7590%, and the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" yield increasing by 3 basis points to 2.1140% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 137.8 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 13, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a full bid amount of 137.8 billion yuan. There were no reverse repos maturing that day, resulting in a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market maintained a loose funding condition, with overnight repo rates for deposit institutions hovering around 1.30%. Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight using credit bonds as collateral, with rates dropping to the 1.46%-1.48% range [2] - There is a certain demand for one-year interbank certificates of deposit at 1.66% from national and major joint-stock banks, with the latest transaction rates in the secondary market for the same term at 1.655%-1.66%, slightly down from the previous day [2] News Developments - According to customs data, China's exports in September (in RMB terms) grew by 8.4% year-on-year, up from a previous increase of 4.8%. Imports rose by 7.5%, compared to a prior increase of 1.7%. The trade surplus was 645.47 billion yuan, down from 732.68 billion yuan [3] - In USD terms, China's September exports increased by 8.3%, up from 4.4% previously, while imports grew by 7.4%, compared to a prior increase of 1.3% [3] - U.S. President Trump hinted at the possibility of canceling new tariffs on China, leading to a rise in U.S. stock index futures. Trump stated on social media not to worry about China, indicating that everything would be fine [3] Operational Recommendations - Recent signals from both China and the U.S. have been relatively mild, leading to a correction in the risk-averse sentiment previously caused by tariff conflicts, which in turn weakened the bond market [4] - The bond market outlook is complex, with attention needed on the implementation of new fund redemption fee regulations, changes in market risk appetite, and potential fluctuations in U.S.-China relations. However, the current loose funding conditions and the normalization of the yield curve limit the extent of long bond declines [4] - If the 10-year government bond yield rises above 1.8%, there may be a recovery in allocation value. Short-term treasury bonds are expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with T2512 likely maintaining a range of 107.4-108.3, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for potential adjustments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global sugar market is expected to experience a surplus of 7.4 million tons in the 2025/26 season, the highest since the 2017/18 season, indicating potential downward pressure on sugar prices [2]. Group 1: Market Data - As of September 30, the main white sugar futures contract closed at 5,493 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.07%, while the open interest decreased by 29,008 contracts to 388,037 contracts [1]. - The weekly K-line for white sugar futures showed a cumulative increase of 0.27% over the last two weeks [1]. - As of October 1, the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.2106 million tons, up from 3.1039 million tons the previous week [2]. Group 2: Production Insights - In the first half of September, sugar production in Brazil's central-southern region increased by 15.72% year-on-year, reaching 3.62 million tons [2]. - The northern sugar beet production areas have begun processing, with expectations of stable or slightly increased domestic sugar production for the 2025/26 season [3]. - The new sugar production season is expected to see an increase in imports, contributing to a continued supply pressure in the domestic market [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Hualian Futures predicts that sugar prices will remain low and fluctuate due to increased supply and the need to manage old sugar stocks before the new cane sugar season begins [3]. - Ruida Futures notes that the current supply is ample, which is putting downward pressure on sugar prices, despite some short-term support from weather-related issues in sugarcane-producing regions [4]. - The market sentiment is influenced by the slow sales progress of sugar from Guangxi, while the relaxation of import controls on Thai sugar syrup may lead to a slight increase in sugar syrup availability [4].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing high uncertainty due to various factors, including potential U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a surge in gold prices to new historical highs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Evergrande Futures indicates that the U.S. housing market is showing signs of improvement, with the August pending home sales index rising by 0.5% year-on-year, up from a previous increase of 0.3%, driven by lower mortgage rates [1]. - The potential U.S. government shutdown on October 1 could lead to a halt in economic data releases, including the non-farm payroll report, which may create volatility in the market [2][3]. - The COMEX gold management fund's net positions increased by 1,578 contracts to 160,500 contracts, while the silver management fund's net positions rose by 1,293 contracts to 37,000 contracts, indicating a bullish sentiment in the precious metals market [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's officials express concerns about inflation, suggesting that a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy may only occur if there is substantial economic weakness, which is not currently observed [1]. - Barclays Bank notes that the potential loss of Federal Reserve independence could lead to a risk premium in the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, making gold an unexpectedly attractive hedge [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions and the upcoming holiday period, investors are advised to maintain light positions in precious metals to mitigate risks associated with potential price volatility [2][3]. - Heraeus analysts highlight that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely to support gold prices, with expectations of further cuts in the coming years [3].

Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - The 7 - 8 months in Q3 show a complex macro - economic situation with economic slowdown pressure and policy counter - cyclical adjustment. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started, and future policies depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, it fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed faces challenges in formulating policies, and the RMB may not have a trend appreciation in the short term [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to a lack of super - expected information and approaching holidays [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to hold some long positions and take partial profits [7]. - The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to be stable, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc is expected to be weak after a rebound, nickel and stainless steel have limited downside space, tin is expected to be volatile, and lithium carbonate is expected to be volatile before the holiday [10][11][14][15][17][18]. - In the black metals market, steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside, iron ore is expected to be volatile, and coal and coke are not recommended as short - positions in the black series [26][29][32]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term, LPG short - positions can be gradually closed, PX - TA can be considered for cautious long - positions, MEG should be observed in the short term, methanol should hold short - put options, PP can be considered for long - positions at low prices, PE is expected to be volatile, pure benzene and styrene are expected to be affected by pre - holiday stocking, fuel oil follows the cost down, and asphalt is expected to be volatile and weak [36][39][45][47][50][53][54][56][57][61]. - In other markets, urea is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, glass lacks a clear trend, caustic soda's price is affected by various factors, and pulp is expected to be volatile [64][65][67]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Policy is the key variable. The economy shows a slowdown pressure, and policy counter - cyclical adjustment is in place. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed's policy challenges affect the market, and the RMB may not appreciate in the short term [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: It is expected to be volatile due to a lack of information and approaching holidays [6]. - **Bond Market**: It is expected to be volatile, and long - positions can be partially held and profited [7]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: It is expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to be stable and may fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply and demand [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong after a short - term correction. Alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile at a high level [11][12]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be weak after a rebound, with a supply surplus and general demand [13][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They have limited downside space due to concerns about the Indonesian nickel ore sanctions [15][16]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be volatile due to supply and demand [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be volatile between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [18][19]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside due to supply, demand, and macro - policies [26]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to be volatile, and the market may return to fundamentals after the policy is not as expected [29]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are not recommended as short - positions in the black series, and the market is affected by downstream replenishment and policies [32]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese**: They can be considered for long - positions at low prices, with cost support and anti - involution expectations [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply and demand imbalances, although geopolitical risks provide some support [36][37]. - **LPG**: Short - positions can be gradually closed as the supply is controllable and the demand changes little [39]. - **PX - TA**: They can be considered for cautious long - positions, with supply and demand and processing fee issues [40][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: It should be observed in the short term, with limited supply elasticity and expected to be volatile [43][45]. - **Methanol**: Hold short - put options as the port contradiction is difficult to solve [47]. - **PP**: It can be considered for long - positions at low prices as the profit is compressed and the device operation needs attention [50]. - **PE**: It is expected to be volatile due to weak supply and demand and low valuation [53]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are affected by pre - holiday stocking, and the market is expected to be volatile [54][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the cost down, and it is advisable to observe in the short term [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its cracking is weak, and the market is currently soft [59]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be volatile and weak, with supply growth and demand affected by weather [61]. Others - **Urea**: It is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, with supply and demand and export factors [64]. - **Soda Ash**: It has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, and the market is affected by new production and exports [64]. - **Glass**: It lacks a clear trend due to high inventory and weak demand [65]. - **Caustic Soda**: Its price is affected by spot rhythm, demand, and macro - expectations [67]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to be volatile, with high inventory and limited upward drive [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold market is influenced by the divergent views of Fed officials, with the dovish stance boosting market sentiment and increasing price volatility [12]. - The US dollar index is expected to continue to decline in the short - term due to the mixed signals from Fed officials regarding inflation and interest rate cuts [17]. - US stock index futures are supported by the technology sector's strength, driven by companies like NVIDIA's investment in OpenAI and the expectation of further interest rate cuts [19][20]. - The bond market is likely to remain in a volatile range, with short - term negative factors easing but policy expectations still affecting the market [30]. - In the commodity market, various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and international events impact different commodities. For example, Argentina's export tax policies affect agricultural products, and overseas mine disruptions support copper prices [33][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Bostic believes there is no need for further cuts in 2025, while Milan advocates for a 50 - bp series of cuts. Gold prices rose 2% to a new high, and market sentiment is more influenced by the dovish side [12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short - term but with increased volatility, and the domestic market may perform weaker than the international market [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Some Fed officials think the room for further interest rate cuts is limited due to high inflation, while Milan believes the policy is overly restrictive. The US dollar is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term volatile trend [14][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Milan suggests the Fed should cut interest rates by 1.25 percentage points this year. NVIDIA plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. The technology sector drives the index up, and the market risk preference remains high [19][20][24]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 9 - month LPR remained unchanged. The stock market is in a high - level consolidation phase, with a short - term high - level volatile pattern. It is recommended that long - position holders take partial profits [27][28]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 9 - month LPR was unchanged, and the central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is likely to remain volatile, with short - term negative factors easing but policy expectations still present [29][30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina suspended export tariffs on soybeans and oil meals, causing a decline in futures prices. US soybean harvest is progressing, but the good - quality rate is decreasing. Domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing. It is recommended to monitor China's potential increase in purchasing Argentine soybeans/meal [33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Argentina's cancellation of grain export taxes led to a sharp drop in global oil prices. The oil market is under pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market is rising due to cost and pre - holiday replenishment demand. Supply is tight, but power - sector demand is weak. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term [35][36]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP plans to modernize its infrastructure in Port Hedland. The iron ore price has been strong in September, but the weakening terminal demand may limit its upward space [37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou market is stable. The production in Xinjiang is normal, and the demand is weak before the holidays. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on weather changes in the production areas [40][41]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth of 4% in the next two years, with a ban on new capacity. Steel prices are in a volatile rebound, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [42][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is stable. The futures price has fallen with corn, and the long - term supply - demand situation is bearish for the price spread between starch and corn [45]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of corn in Northeast China has fallen due to increased supply. The mid - term view is bearish, and existing short positions can be held [46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Guinea's military government is promoting a constitutional referendum, which may affect the mining policy. The alumina price is expected to continue to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [47][48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's solar cell exports increased in August. The polysilicon price is expected to be difficult to fall in October, and the short - term price will fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. It is advisable to try long positions at the current level [50][52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's industrial silicon exports increased in August. Considering the cost and supply - demand situation, it is more advisable to go long at low prices, but be cautious when chasing high prices [53][54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The import of lead concentrates increased in August, and the export of lead - acid batteries decreased. The lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long on the dips and consider positive spreads [55][57][58]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia suspended 190 mining companies. The nickel price lacks upward momentum but has long - term investment value. It is advisable to pay attention to positive spreads [59][60]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of zinc alloys and galvanized sheets increased, while the import of zinc concentrates decreased in August. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and consider positive spreads [61][63][64]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Overseas copper mines have experienced disruptions. The copper price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and is expected to be volatile at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68][69]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - China's lithium spodumene imports decreased in August, and the import of lithium carbonate increased. The price may fall in the long - term, and it is recommended to switch to a bearish strategy [70][71][72]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG has fallen due to pre - holiday inventory reduction and supply pressure. It is expected to remain weak, but the room for further decline is limited [73][75][77]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iraq plans to restart exports from the Kurdish region. The oil price is in a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for new drivers [78][79]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price is falling due to poor fundamental expectations. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term [79][80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA price is under pressure due to weak demand and cost factors. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term [83][84][85]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory shows a pattern of rising refinery inventory and falling social inventory. The price is expected to be volatile, with limited upside and downside space [86][87]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The demand for urea from compound fertilizer producers in Shandong has decreased. The urea price is under pressure due to supply and demand factors, and it is recommended that strategic stockpilers make decentralized purchases [88][89]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports has increased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene are volatile and weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory contradiction after the peak season [90][91]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda is falling, but the downward space of the futures price may be limited due to low chlorine - alkali profits [92][94]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp varies regionally. The pulp market is expected to be volatile and weak due to poor fundamentals [95][96]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price is weak, but the low valuation makes it difficult for the price to fall further. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic policy support [97]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has been slightly adjusted downwards. The inventory of bottle chip factories is decreasing, but the supply - demand pattern has not been fundamentally improved [100][101]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has decreased. The price is expected to be short - term stable, and it is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [102][103]. 3.2.29 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The futures price is under pressure to correct. It is recommended to consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601 [104][105]. 3.2.30 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The number of scrapped container ships has reached a new low. The container freight rate has a rebound expectation in October, but there is still a downward space. It is recommended to consider taking profits on the dips [106][107].

Group 1 - Shanghai's municipal leaders are focusing on enhancing the role of the Lingang New Area as a pilot zone for reform and innovation, emphasizing the need for legal protection and regulatory improvements to support business innovation [1] - The 2025 China Venture Capital Forum was held in Shanghai, featuring key speeches and the release of the "China Venture Capital Development Annual Report (2025)" [3] - The Shanghai Municipal Government is promoting the integration of technology, industry, and finance to support the development of strategic capital and enhance investment in new productive forces [4] Group 2 - A series of financial education initiatives were launched, including a financial education week aimed at raising awareness about financial rights and risks among young people [6][13] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange signed a memorandum of cooperation with the Muscat Securities Market to enhance collaboration between the two exchanges [8] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange introduced new trading services for international copper and alumina standard warehouse receipts, marking a significant development in its trading platform [8] Group 3 - The Shanghai Banking and Insurance sectors are advocating for a "Finance for the People" initiative to ensure consumer rights and promote a fair financial environment [10] - The Shanghai Jinshan District launched a platform to connect industrial financing needs, aiming to enhance cooperation between industry and finance [11] - The People's Bank of China is actively engaging in global financial governance and cooperation, emphasizing the importance of a stable international monetary system [12]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first cut of the year, with expectations for two more cuts by the end of the year [1][2] - Following the announcement, COMEX gold futures reached a record high of $3744 per ounce before retreating to $3692 per ounce, indicating market volatility and differing opinions on gold price trends [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the initial surge in gold prices may have been a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, with short-term traders taking profits after the rate cut [2][4] Group 2 - International gold prices have increased by 5% in September and over 33% year-to-date, reflecting strong market interest [3][4] - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and UBS, have raised their gold price forecasts, with predictions of prices potentially exceeding $4000 to $5000 per ounce [4] - The weakening of the US dollar due to rate cuts is seen as a significant factor driving gold prices higher, as central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves to reduce reliance on dollar assets [4][5] Group 3 - Despite the bullish outlook, analysts caution about potential short-term volatility due to profit-taking and uncertainties in the global economy, including fluctuating US economic data and geopolitical tensions [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with some investors expecting this easing policy to continue until 2026, potentially lowering rates to around 3% [3] - Historical trends indicate that after similar rate cuts in 2024, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may rise instead of fall, influenced by oil price fluctuations, Trump's economic policies, and inflation concerns [3] - Current economic conditions show persistent inflation and emerging concerns in the job market, with core PCE inflation projected to rise by 3.1% this year and remain at 2.6% in 2026, exceeding previous expectations [3] Group 2 - The key resistance level for gold futures is identified between 843 CNY/gram and 860 CNY/gram, while the important support level is between 826 CNY/gram and 850 CNY/gram [4] - Gold futures are currently trading at approximately 832.80 CNY/gram, reflecting a decline of 0.74%, with a high of 839.00 CNY/gram and a low of 827.00 CNY/gram observed [1]

Group 1: Market and Liquidity - Interest Rates - DRO01 closed at 1.36 with a -0.60 bp change, DR007 at 1.46 with a -2.38 bp change [4] - GC001 closed at 1.37 with a 28.50 bp change, GC007 at 1.46 with a 4.50 bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [4] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.40 with a 0.07 bp change, 5 - year at 1.61 with a -1.32 bp change [4] - 10 - year treasury closed at 1.86 with a -1.01 bp change, 10 - year US treasury at 4.06 with a 5.00 bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.2645 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1.0684 trillion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Monday [5] Group 2: Market and Liquidity - Stock Indexes - CSI 300 closed at 4522 with a -0.57% change, IF current month at 4523 with a -0.9% change [6] - SSE 50 closed at 2969 with a -0.49% change, IH current month at 2969 with a -0.7% change [6] - CSI 500 closed at 7148 with a 0.35% change, IC current month at 7140 with a 0.2% change [6] - CSI 1000 closed at 7423 with a 0.31% change, IM current month at 7393 with a 0.1% change [6] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 1.38% to 4522, SSE 50 rose 0.89% to 2968.5, CSI 500 rose 3.38% to 7147.7, and CSI 1000 rose 2.45% to 7422.9 [6] - Last week, in the Shenwan primary industry index, electronics (6.1%), real estate (6%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (4.8%), media (4.3%), and non - ferrous metals (3.8%) led the gains, while only comprehensive (-1.4%), banking (-0.7%), pharmaceutical biology (-0.4%), and social services (-0.3%) declined [6] - Last week's A - share daily trading volumes were 2.2215 trillion yuan, 1.9424 trillion yuan, 1.8096 trillion yuan, 2.1904 trillion yuan, and 2.2681 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 247.39 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Group 3: Market and Liquidity - Futures Volume and Open Interest - IF trading volume was 148,623 with a -12.4% change, and open interest was 278,489 with a -1.3% change [6] - IH trading volume was 65,282 with a -8.0% change, and open interest was 100,041 with a -4.2% change [6] - IC trading volume was 175,859 with a -10.2% change, and open interest was 267,758 with a 0.5% change [6] - IM trading volume was 240,836 with a -24.3% change, and open interest was 372,165 with a -4.2% change [6] Group 4: Market and Liquidity - Futures Basis - IF basis for current month was -1.94%, next month was 1.22%, current quarter was 2.10%, and next quarter was 1.90% [8] - IH basis for current month was -0.15%, next month was -0.17%, current quarter was -0.11%, and next quarter was -0.23% [8] - IC basis for current month was 7.91%, next month was 9.06%, current quarter was 8.45%, and next quarter was 8.40% [8] - IM basis for current month was 29.59%, next month was 14.44%, current quarter was 12.77%, and next quarter was 11.82% [8] Group 5: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In August, the new social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing dropped to 8.8% [7] - Government bond net financing decreased by 251.9 billion yuan year - on - year, and corporate short - term loans increased by 260 billion yuan year - on - year [7] - Resident short - term loans only increased by 1.05 billion yuan, and M1 year - on - year growth rate rose slightly to 6% [7] - In the coming week, there will be many domestic and international macro events. The Fed will announce its September interest rate decision, and China - US leaders will have talks [7] - Last week, the stock index rose further, with CSI 500 leading the rise in index futures. Market trading volume decreased last week [7] - The strategy is to control risks in index futures positions and mainly adjust for long positions next week [7]

Group 1 - The State Council issued the revised "Three North" project overall plan, which aims to guide regions in promoting high-quality development through three major battles from 2021 to 2030 and further phases until 2050 [1] - The People's Bank of China reported that the average interest rate for new corporate loans in August was approximately 3.1%, a decrease from the previous month and down about 40 basis points year-on-year, indicating a historical low [1] - The total government debt in China is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a government debt ratio of 68.7%, which is considered reasonable and manageable [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China reported that the broad money supply (M2) reached 331.98 trillion yuan at the end of August, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.23 trillion yuan, up 6% [2] - The total social financing scale in China reached 433.66 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the classification supervision regulations for futures companies to enhance compliance and risk management [3] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued guidelines for the construction of electricity spot markets, supporting the integration of renewable energy into the market [4] - The State Tobacco Monopoly Administration established management measures for the domestic duty-free tobacco market, requiring compliance with legal pricing regulations [5] - The International Monetary Fund warned Romania about the sustainability of its fiscal policy, predicting public debt could approach 70% of GDP by 2030 without further fiscal measures [7]