重要信息点评 1、海关总署发布数据显示，2025年前11个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值41.21万亿元人民币，同比增长 3.6%。其中，出口24.46万亿元，增长6.2%；进口16.75万亿元，增长0.2%。11月份，我国货物贸易增速 回升，进出口总值3.9万亿元，增长4.1%。其中，出口2.35万亿元，增长5.7%；进口1.55万亿元，增长 1.7%。 2、美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%– 3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。会议投票为9 票赞成、3票反对，部分委员主张维持利率不变或更大降幅。会议声明指出经济温和扩张，就业增长放 缓、失业率小幅上升，通胀仍处高位，委员会关注双重使命的双向风险。为维持银行体系流动性充足， 自12月12日起启动每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划。美联储点阵图预测显示在2026年和2027年各 有一次25个基点的降息。 3、美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，货币政策无预设路径，将逐次会议依据数据决策。通胀仍 偏高，但非关税驱动的核心通胀已显著改善，若无新关税，商 ...

围绕"枢纽"建设奋力谱写中国式现代化河南篇章 中国共产党河南省第十一届委员会第十次全体会议，于2025年11月28日至29日在郑州举行。会议审议通 过了《中共河南省委关于制定河南省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（简称河南"十五 五"规划建议），系统擎画了"十五五"河南经济社会发展蓝图。 随着中部地区加快崛起、黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展等国家战略深入实施，河南在"十五五"时期面 临前所未有的大好形势和机遇。国家扩大内需战略与全国统一大市场建设的双重驱动，为河南释放区位 交通枢纽、超大规模市场、完整产业体系、人力资源禀赋及深厚文化底蕴等综合优势提供了关键契机。 在此背景下，河南正通过强化"枢纽"与"支点"功能，深度融入服务全国统一大市场建设，进而提升在全 国发展格局中的能级与位势。期货日报记者就此采访了多位业内专家，聚焦河南枢纽经济提质路径，为 区域协同发展建言献策。 1.建设国家要素配置枢纽中心 推动要素资源配置是全国统一大市场建设的核心，它通过打破壁垒、促进要素自由流动和高效组合，直 接提升全要素生产率，为构建新发展格局和实现高质量发展奠定坚实基础。河南"十五五"规划建议提 出，深入推进要素市场 ...

01 价格飙涨 截至2025年12月12日，COMEX白银期货报64.835美元/盎司，较年初的29.3美元/盎司上涨约120%。现货白银涨幅同样突破120%，而同期黄金约60%的涨幅 相形见绌。 白银在今年上半年表现相对平淡，但进入下半年后便火力全开，涨势陡然加快。 12月11日，现货白银价格一举突破62美元/盎司，再度刷新历史纪录。交易大厅里，投资者盯着屏幕上不断跳升的数字，这个曾被戏称为"穷人黄金"的金属 正在上演一场前所未有的价值重估。 2025年12月11日，现货白银价格突破62美元/盎司，盘中最高触及62.884美元/盎司。与此同时，COMEX白银盘中突破63美元/盎司，一度摸高63.25美元/盎 司。 这已是白银连续第三天刷新历史纪录。12月9日，白银价格首次突破每盎司60美元；12月10日站上61美元；12月11日则进一步冲高至62美元以上。 自年初以来，现货白银的累计涨幅已逼近120%，成为年内最牛的贵金属品种。 而同期黄金的涨幅约为60%，仅为白银的一半。在贵金属市场，白银正从黄金的"影子"中走出，迎来属于自己的超级周期。 9月1日现货白银突破40美元/盎司，仅一个多月后的10月9日便突破 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The RMB is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias. The current situation shows a neutral economic expectation gap, a narrowing Sino-US interest rate gap favorable to the RMB, and neutral trade policy uncertainty. It is predicted that the USD/CNY will remain in the range of 7.05 - 7.10. If the US core data is significantly weaker than expected or China's external demand continues to improve, the probability of a short-term upward movement of the RMB will increase, but the probability of breaking through 7.0 in the short term is relatively small [32][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity, Price, and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3-month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side [4]. - The term structure shows the changes in the new exchange USD/CNY futures premium/discount, bank forward premium/discount, and Sino-US interest rate differentials in different time periods [7]. Policy Observation - The adjustment direction of the counter-cyclical factor has returned to above 0% from negative. The 3-month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [9]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Interest Rate Cuts and Liquidity - There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance was 908.5 billion on December 3rd (remaining at a high level), and the reserve balance of depository institutions in October was 2.94 trillion (-123.4 billion). The pace of interest rate cuts by non-US central banks has generally slowed down, and some have shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes [16]. Macro - Federal Reserve Voting Seats - Stephen Milan holds a temporary seat, and the candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman will be determined before Christmas on December 25th. Raphael Bostic will retire early in February 2026, and the candidate is yet to be determined. The Supreme Court will rule in January 2026 on whether Trump has the right to dismiss Lisa Cook. The Federal Reserve passed the December interest rate decision with a 9:3 vote, cutting the federal funds rate by 25 bp to 3.50% - 3.75% [18]. Macro - Federal Reserve Chairman Candidates - The core competition is between Christopher Waller and Kevin Hassett. Currently, market probabilities show that Hassett is leading, but Trump highly trusts Raphael Bostic. If Waller wins, it may trigger a reversal trade of "the Federal Reserve losing its independence," which is positive for overall US dollar assets and negative for gold, and the market may reduce expectations for interest rate cuts next year. If Hassett wins, it is expected to trigger the market's "muscle memory" of "the Federal Reserve losing its independence," which is negative for overall US dollar assets and positive for gold, and the market may raise expectations for interest rate cuts next year [20]. Core Charts - US Economy - The government has reopened, and attention should be paid to the impact on the economy during the shutdown period. In November, the ADP employment data exceeded expectations, inflation data is awaited, and the economic outlook has been revised upwards. The PMI has declined slightly, and real estate sales in October increased slightly [22]. Economy - US November PMI - In the manufacturing sector, new orders, employment, and delivery made negative contributions, while prices and output made positive contributions. In the service sector, prices made a positive contribution, while employment and imports made negative contributions [23]. Macro - Chinese Economy - There is a structural differentiation in the economy. Exports and imports rebounded in November. The reduction in working days in October dragged down the data for that month, and there is an expected slight rebound in November. The December Politburo meeting shows a swing in policy expectations [26]. Macro - November Export Rebound - The characteristics of re - exports continue. Exports to the US decreased by 28.58% (previous value: -25.17%), while exports to ASEAN, India, and South Africa were 8.17%, 7.97%, and 5.4% respectively (previous values: 10.96%, 14.3%, and 23.3% respectively). Most sub - items declined, but rare earths, electromechanical products, and automobiles still showed resilience. The market has a consistent optimistic expectation for exports, and attention should be paid to the impact risk if there is an unexpected downward revision [28]. 12 - month Politburo's Task Deployment for 2026 - There are changes in the task deployment for 2026 compared to 2025, including adjustments in the focus on domestic demand, science and technology/industry, reform, opening - up, risk prevention, and other aspects [30]. Comparison of Politburo Meetings - There are differences in the judgment of the economic situation, overall economic work requirements, macro - policy tones, consumption and investment, risk prevention focuses, and other aspects between the July 30, 2025 Politburo meeting and the December 8, 2025 Politburo meeting [31]. Macro - 2026 Scenario Deduction - Throughout 2026, there are important time points such as the determination of the Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, OPEC and FOMC meetings, the release of the government work report, the National People's Congress, the expiration of Powell's term, and the US mid - term elections, which will have an impact on the economy and policies [38].

来源：喜娜AI 一、贵金属期货 隔夜贵金属市场表现强势，黄金价格显著上涨，纽约期金突破4310美元/盎司，日内涨幅达2.02%[1]； 现货黄金同步走高，突破4280美元/盎司，日内涨1.23%[2]。 白银市场更为强劲，现货白银突破64美元/盎司，日内涨幅3.56%[3]；纽约期银同样突破64美元/盎司， 日内涨4.87%[4]。 国内市场方面，白银连续主力合约日内涨幅达4%，现报14930.00元[5]。 原油价格承压下行，WTI原油失守57美元/桶，日内跌2.23%[7]；布伦特原油同步走弱，失守61美元/ 桶，日内跌幅1.96%[8]。 天然气市场表现疲软，美国天然气期货跌超4.00%，现报3.557美元/百万英热[9]。 机构预测方面，巴克莱银行预计2026年布伦特原油均价为每桶65美元[10]。 四、宏观与市场影响 多家国际机构密集上调2025年中国经济增速预期，其中世界银行、国际货币基金组织、亚洲开发银行分 别上调0.4、0.2、0.1个百分点，认为中国经济展现显著韧性[11]。 美联储政策方面，橡树资本创始人表示，进一步降息意义不大，反而可能助长市场冒险行为[12]；美联 储将于周五购买82亿 ...

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is cautious as investors await the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision, with expectations for a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, priced at approximately 87.6% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool [1][2] - There are internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with some members supporting further rate cuts to mitigate potential labor market weaknesses, while others express concerns about inflationary pressures from additional cuts [2] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Oracle's Q2 earnings report, focusing on its debt-driven AI infrastructure expansion plans and reliance on OpenAI, with the company's stock showing a slight pre-market increase of 0.4% [7] Group 2 - Silver prices have surged nearly 110% this year, significantly outperforming gold's 60% increase, leading to a gold-silver ratio dropping below 70 for the first time since July 2021 [10] - Silver's recent price increase is attributed to global supply tightness and expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, with retail and speculative interest driving additional capital inflows [9] - Brent crude oil prices have stabilized after a previous decline, rising over 0.2% to $62.07 per barrel, as investors keep a close watch on the progress of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine [13]

Core Insights - HSBC China has successfully assisted an overseas asset management institution in completing the first QFI commodity futures transaction using government bonds as margin in the domestic market [1] - UBS Futures has also announced its support for the first commodity futures transaction using government bonds as margin, becoming the first futures company to facilitate this for overseas investors [1] Group 1 - HSBC China provided comprehensive services including account management, collateral business application, government bond deposit, and settlement for the overseas institution [1] - The transaction enhances the efficiency of the institution's bond holdings by utilizing government bonds in domestic commodity futures trading [1] - The collaboration involved close cooperation with the Central Government Securities Depository and Clearing Co., relevant commodity futures exchanges, and futures companies [1] Group 2 - HSBC China's Vice President highlighted that using government bonds as margin for commodity futures is a new practice of "interconnectivity" between the bond market and futures market, providing a replicable path for more overseas investors [2] - This development offers a more efficient capital utilization channel for overseas investors and enriches the usage scenarios of government bonds through cross-market collaboration [2] - UBS Futures' Chairman stated that the successful implementation of this first business marks the formal opening of government bonds as margin for overseas investors, reflecting the increasing diversity and openness of the Chinese market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the risks associated with virtual currencies and related activities, highlighting that they are not recognized as legal tender in China and warning against illegal financial activities linked to them [1][3][4]. Group 1: Nature of Virtual Currencies - Virtual currencies are not issued by monetary authorities and do not hold the same legal status as national legal tender, thus cannot be circulated as currency within China [1][3]. - Certain virtual currencies, such as "air coins" (e.g., π coin), lack substantial technological innovation and clear commercial applications, leading to significant fraud and market manipulation issues [3][5]. - Stablecoins currently fail to meet customer identification and anti-money laundering requirements, posing risks of being used for money laundering and fraudulent fundraising [3][5]. Group 2: Prohibited Activities - Domestic institutions and individuals engaging in the exchange of legal currency for virtual currencies or issuing and financing real-world asset tokens are involved in illegal financial activities [4][5]. - Member institutions are prohibited from participating in the issuance and trading of virtual currencies and real-world asset tokens, and must not provide any related services [5]. - Financial institutions must conduct thorough customer due diligence to identify potential risks related to virtual currencies and report any suspicious activities to relevant authorities [5]. Group 3: Public Awareness and Caution - The public is urged to remain vigilant against various forms of virtual currency and real-world asset token activities, which are often linked to speculation and fraud [5]. - Individuals should enhance their risk awareness and avoid participating in virtual currency-related activities, including illegal fundraising under the guise of "mining" [5]. - Any suspicious activities related to virtual currencies should be reported to regulatory authorities or law enforcement [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese financial regulatory authorities have issued a risk warning regarding virtual currencies and related illegal activities, emphasizing that virtual currencies are not legal tender and warning the public against participating in such activities [1][4][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - On December 5, multiple financial associations in China jointly released a risk warning to prevent illegal activities related to virtual currencies [1]. - The warning highlights that virtual currencies are not issued by monetary authorities and do not have the same legal status as legal tender, thus cannot be circulated or used within China [4]. Group 2: Risks Associated with Virtual Currencies - Recent trends show a rise in illegal activities related to virtual currencies, including illegal fundraising and Ponzi schemes, often disguised as stablecoins or asset-backed tokens [4]. - Specific tokens like π coin are identified as lacking substantial technological innovation and clear commercial applications, leading to significant fraud and market manipulation risks [4]. - The warning outlines that stablecoins currently do not meet requirements for customer identity verification and anti-money laundering, posing risks of being used for money laundering and illegal fundraising [4]. Group 3: Prohibitions for Financial Institutions - Domestic institutions and individuals are prohibited from engaging in activities related to the exchange of legal tender for virtual currencies and the issuance of asset-backed tokens [5][6]. - Financial institutions, including banks and payment service providers, are instructed not to offer any services related to virtual currencies or asset-backed tokens, including mining operations [6]. Group 4: Public Awareness and Precautions - The public is urged to remain vigilant against various forms of virtual currency and asset-backed token activities, which are often associated with speculation and illegal activities [7]. - Individuals are advised to enhance their risk awareness and avoid participating in any virtual currency-related activities, including those disguised as mining operations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The joint announcement by seven associations in China emphasizes the risks associated with virtual currencies and related activities, urging the public and financial institutions to remain vigilant against illegal activities and scams [1][2]. Group 1: Nature of Virtual Currencies - Virtual currencies are not issued by monetary authorities and do not hold the same legal status as fiat currencies, making them unsuitable for circulation within China [2]. - Certain virtual currencies, such as π coin, lack substantial technological innovation and clear commercial applications, leading to significant fraud and market manipulation risks [2]. - Stablecoins currently do not meet customer identification and anti-money laundering requirements, posing risks of being used for money laundering and fraudulent fundraising [2]. - The tokenization of real-world assets carries multiple risks, including false asset risks and speculative trading risks, with no approval from Chinese financial authorities for such activities [2]. Group 2: Prohibitions on Financial Institutions - Financial institutions are prohibited from engaging in activities related to the issuance and trading of virtual currencies and real-world asset tokens within China [4]. - Banks and payment institutions must not provide any form of financial services or credit support to virtual currency mining projects [4]. - Securities, fund, and futures institutions are also barred from offering services related to virtual currencies and real-world asset tokens [4]. - Internet platform companies must refrain from marketing or providing technical services for virtual currency-related activities and should ensure compliance in information dissemination [4]. Group 3: Public Awareness and Caution - The public is urged to be highly alert to various forms of virtual currency and real-world asset token activities, which are often associated with speculation and fraud [5]. - Individuals should enhance their risk awareness and avoid participating in virtual currency-related activities, including illegal fundraising under the guise of mining [5]. - It is advised to report any suspicious activities related to virtual currencies to regulatory authorities and law enforcement [5].