近年来，随着国内对乙丙橡胶生产技术的不断优化，部分企业通过引入先进的生产工艺和设备，进一步 提高了生产效率和产品质量。近年来我国乙丙橡胶行业市场规模整体呈增长态势，据统计，2024年我国 乙丙橡胶行业市场规模为109.12亿元，市场均价约为24614元/吨。 华经产业研究院研究团队使用桌面研究与定量调查、定性分析相结合的方式，全面客观的剖析乙丙橡胶 行业发展的总体市场容量、产业链、经营特性、盈利能力和商业模式等。科学使用SCP模型、SWOT、 PEST、回归分析、SPACE矩阵等研究模型与方法综合分析乙丙橡胶行业市场环境、产业政策、竞争格 局、技术革新、市场风险、行业壁垒、机遇以及挑战等相关因素。根据乙丙橡胶行业的发展轨迹及实践 经验，精心研究编制《2025-2031年中国乙丙橡胶行业市场需求预测及投资战略规划报告》，为企业、 科研、投资机构等单位投资决策、战略规划、产业研究提供重要参考。 近年来，随着国内对乙丙橡胶的需求趋于稳定，生产商已将重点从产能扩张转向优化生产工艺。目的是 提高产品质量，保证设备安全、稳定、高效运行，实现长周期高负荷生产。据统计，2024年我国乙丙橡 胶行业产量为30.94万吨，同比增 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日橡胶板块主力资金净流出5051.32万元，游资资金净流入6746.87万元，散户资金 净流出1695.56万元。橡胶板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，10月10日橡胶板块较上一交易日下跌0.07%，天铁科技领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3897.03，下跌0.94%。深证成指报收于13355.42，下跌2.7%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300320 | 海达股份 | 10.34 | 2.48% | 15.95万 | 1.64亿 | | 605183 | 确成股份 | 20.70 | 2.42% | 3.53万 | 7275.04万 | | 002442 | 龙星科技 | 6.39 | 1.91% | 7.11万 | 4515.65万 | | 002753 | 永东股份 | 7.07 | 1.73% | 1 5.30万 | 3726.77万 | | 300731 | 科创新源 | 44.40 | 1.72% | 11.27万 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported an increase in copper inventory by 14,656 tons this week [1] - Aluminum inventory rose by 1,180 tons, while zinc inventory increased by 8,940 tons [1] - Lead inventory decreased by 1,978 tons, and nickel inventory saw an increase of 3,604 tons [1] Group 2 - Tin inventory decreased by 550 tons, and natural rubber inventory fell by 3,729 tons [1]

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 沪胶 偏弱运行 宝城期货 陈栋 国庆长假期间，美国政府意外"停摆"，引发系统性风险，导致全球金融市场避险情绪急剧升温，风险 资产普遍承压。与此同时，台风"麦德姆"登陆并侵袭了我国南部重要产胶区，或带来减产预期，但产业方 面的利多预期难敌宏观层面的偏空情绪。节后归来，国内沪胶期货 2601 合约虽呈现超跌反弹态势，然而 期价受到 5 日均线的反向压制，并且当前中短期均线空头趋势明显，预计后市沪胶或延续偏弱运行姿态。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 美国政府"停摆"的负面影响凸显 由于美国国会参议院在当地时间 10 月 6 日未能通过新的临时拨款法案，民主党与共和党的提案均再 次被否决，美国政府"停摆"状态持续。美国政府在 2018 年年底至 2019 年年初为期 35 天的"停摆"给 GDP 造成了 30 亿美元的损失，据美国国会预算办公室估算，此次美国政府每"停摆"一周，经济增速将会下降约 0.15 个百分点，若把私营机构受到的影响计算在内，经济增速可能会下降 0.2 个百分点。整体来看，美国 政府"停摆"给经济和需求带来较大影响，并拖累大宗商品价格走势，这对沪胶期货同 ...

化工日报 | 2025-10-10 9月国内重卡销量继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15415元/吨，较前一日变动+385元/吨；NR主力合约12465元/吨，较前一日变动+365 元/吨；BR主力合约11325元/吨，较前一日变动+225元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14700元/吨，较前一日变动+350元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14850元/吨，较前 一日变动+250元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1860美元/吨，较前一日变动+40美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1750美元/吨，较前一日变动+40美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价11250元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。 市场资讯 据第一商用车网初步统计，2025年9月份，我国重卡市场共计销售10.5万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源）， 环比今年8月上涨15%，比上年同期的5.8万辆大幅增长约82%。 2025年8月中国天然橡胶及合成橡胶（包含胶乳）进口66.4万吨，环比上涨4.73%，同比增长7.79%。 2025年1-8月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [5] - Rubber: Oscillating [7] - Methanol: Oscillating [8] - Polyolefins: Oscillating weakly [8] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased with the Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement, leading to a decline in the geopolitical premium of crude oil and downward pressure on oil prices. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories. Under the triple tests of supply increase expectations, geopolitical factor easing, and demand entering the off - season, oil prices are expected to continue their weakening trend [1]. - **Fuel oil**: Although the East - West arbitrage window for low - sulfur fuel oil is mostly closed, the inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable, but the supply may increase in the future. The high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than the low - sulfur [3]. - **Asphalt**: During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly. The continuous rainfall in the southern regions hinders downstream construction, while the northern regions still have some catch - up demand. The recent significant increase in asphalt production may put pressure on prices after the peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may continue to increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken in the second half of October. Under the situation of supply increase and demand weakening, the fundamentals of TA and ethylene glycol are weak, and their prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Rubber**: Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", the rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease. The US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress global rubber demand. After the holiday, rubber prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to new rubber warehouse receipts and crude oil price fluctuations [7]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has significantly increased, but MTO profit compression may affect refinery maintenance plans. In the short term, methanol prices are suppressed by high inventories and tend to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefins**: Poor profit performance may lead to a high level of maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will gradually decline, affecting the procurement of raw materials. Supply pressure remains high, demand has peaked and declined, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue. As the peak season in October ends, downstream operations are expected to decline, and exports may weaken due to India's anti - dumping duties. High inventory pressure will restrict price increases, and market fluctuations may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, the price of WTI November contract closed at $61.51 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.66%. Brent December contract closed at $65.22 per barrel, down $1.03 or 1.55%. SC2511 closed at 464.2 yuan per barrel, down 4.5 yuan or 0.96%. Israel's approval of the Gaza cease - fire agreement led to a decline in the geopolitical premium. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.25% at 2,834 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract (LU2511) closed down 1.23% at 3,360 yuan per ton. The inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2511) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.52% at 3,375 yuan per ton. During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly, and the southern rainfall affected downstream construction [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,626 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. EG2601 closed at 4,234 yuan per ton, up 0.52%. In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai - traded rubber (RU2601) rose 95 yuan per ton to 15,620 yuan per ton. Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease, and the US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress demand [7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,213 yuan per ton. The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has increased [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was 6,700 - 6,800 yuan per ton. Poor profit performance may lead to high - level maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will decline [8]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price of PVC in the East - China market decreased. In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue, and downstream operations are expected to decline as the peak season ends [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products on October 10, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and soda ash [10]. 3.3 Market News - Israel and Hamas have reached a long - sought cease - fire and personnel release agreement, which weakens the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil and triggers investors to sell [12]. - In the absence of strong new signals in supply and demand, crude oil prices have also declined with the broader market. The US government shutdown and the strengthening of the US dollar have reduced the attractiveness of dollar - denominated commodities. Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and slightly downward [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, and p - xylene [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][35][36][39][42][44]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads The report displays the spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [46][48][51][54][58][60]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads The report presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [62][65][67][68]. 3.4.5 Production Profits The report shows the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE from 2021 to 2025 [70][73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy and chemicals, with over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, has won multiple industry awards [77]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and has won many industry awards [78]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities, and has won several industry awards [79]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in integrating financial theory and industrial operations [80].

据介绍，世索科最新的无含氟表面活性剂的全氟橡胶高温牌号可提供高于320°C的连续工作温度，远超 传统全氟橡胶的性能。这一全新牌号采用最新研发的耐高温固化剂，可在高温环境下提供无与伦比的纯 度和可靠性，并无需添加额外的填料。全新的无含氟表面活性剂全氟橡胶高温牌号专为高纯度、高温制 程设计，并且对氟、氧和氢等离子体具有优异的耐受性，结合低黏性和高可靠性使其特别适合闸阀和隔 离阀应用，从而减少客户的维护和停机时间。 世索科特种聚合物全球事业部电子与工业资深执行副总裁Andrew Lau表示："全新高温牌号的推出代表 了世索科近十年来在全氟橡胶技术研发能力方面的极大飞跃。通过启用全新的、更高的温度工艺并减少 成熟工艺的停机时间，世索科将继续为我们的客户带来创新和价值，并同时将可持续发展铭记于心。" 中化新网讯 10月9日，世索科发布全新的高温牌号无含氟表面活性剂全氟橡胶产品组合。这一系列的创 新产品经过精心设计，可在严苛的环境中提供卓越的密封性能，同时支持半导体行业向更可持续的未来 迈进。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

Group 1 - The consumption market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays showed strong growth, with total domestic travel expenditure reaching 809 billion CNY, an increase of 108.19 billion CNY compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods and service consumption growing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively [1] - The market for digital products and automobiles experienced rapid growth during the holiday period [1] Group 2 - Precious metals maintained a strong performance during the holiday but saw a significant decline afterward, likely due to profit-taking from a rapid short-term increase [2] - Geopolitical tensions eased with the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which may have influenced market sentiment [2] - Concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with central banks, particularly in China, increasing their gold reserves [2] Group 3 - The U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, while the first trading day after the National Day holiday saw a positive opening for stock indices, led by the non-ferrous metals sector [3] - The financing balance decreased by 34.06 billion CNY to 2.37839 trillion CNY as of September 30 [3] - The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with increased allocation to equity assets by residents and potential inflows of external capital due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 4 - The double coke market showed fluctuating trends, with inventory levels remaining stable despite a significant increase in social inventory due to the holiday [4] - The increase in inventory was primarily driven by rebar, and there are concerns about the market's acceptance of high-priced resources post-holiday [4] - Upcoming policy expectations related to "anti-involution" are anticipated to provide support for prices in the double coke market [4] Group 5 - The industrial sector for small and medium enterprises in China showed stable economic performance in the first eight months of the year, with an increase in value-added output of 7.6%, outperforming large enterprises by 3.3 percentage points [8] - The development of specialized and innovative small and medium enterprises has been particularly strong, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in value-added output [8] Group 6 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to regulate price competition and maintain a fair market price order, emphasizing the need for businesses to adhere to fair pricing principles [9]

能源化工日报 2025-10-10 原油 2025/10/10 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 9.50 元/桶，跌幅 1.98%，报 471.00 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 36.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.25%，报 2834.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 42.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.23%，报 3360.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 3.72 百万桶至 420.26 百万桶，环比累库 0.89%；SPR 补库 0.29 百万桶至 406.99 百万桶，环比补库 0.07%；汽油库存去库 1.60 百万桶 至 219.09 百万桶，环比去库 0.73%；柴油库存去库 2.02 百万桶至 121.56 百万桶，环比去库 1.63%；燃料油库存累库 0.54 百万桶至 21.17 百万桶，环比累库 2.62%；航空煤油库存去库 0.07 百万桶至 44.27 百万桶，环比去库 0.16%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不易过于看空。基于 ...