能源化工日报 2026-02-25 | | 原油 | | --- | --- | | | 2026/02/25 原油 | | 能源化工组 | 【行情资讯】 | | | INE 主力原油期货收涨 28.70 元/桶，涨幅 6.18%，报 493.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 | | 张正华 | 燃料油收涨 79.00 元/吨，涨幅 2.76%，报 2942.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 192.00 元/吨，涨 | | 橡胶分析师 | 幅 5.84%，报 3478.00 元/吨。 | | 从业资格号：F270766 | | | 交易咨询号：Z0003000 | 【策略观点】 | |  0755-233753333 | 当前油价已经出现一定涨幅，并已经计价较高的地缘溢价。我们认为短期内，伊朗的断供缺口 | | zhangzh@wkqh.cn  | 仍存，但考虑到我们此前地缘系列专题指出委内瑞拉增产即将超预期的预判以及 OPEC 后续的 | | | 增产恢复预期，当前油价应予以中期布局为主要操作思路，但需等待地缘终点爆发以排除尾部 | | 徐绍祖 | 风险。 | | 聚烯烃分析师 | | | 从业资格号 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread gains on February 24, with the main contract for silver rising over 12% and lithium carbonate increasing by over 10% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1704.50 points, up 56.21 points or 3.41% from the previous trading day [1] - The overall commodity index rose to 2349.89 points, an increase of 77.35 points or 3.40% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals, particularly silver, showed strong performance post-Spring Festival, with silver surging by 12.84% and lithium carbonate recovering above 160,000 yuan per ton [2] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to increased safe-haven buying due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] - Concerns about U.S. economic stagnation were heightened by a return of the core PCE year-on-year rate to 3% and a slowdown in GDP growth to 1.4% in Q4 [2] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate - The strong rise in lithium carbonate prices is supported by expectations of a tight supply-demand balance, despite concerns over a decline in downstream production [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate production is also expected to decrease, which offsets the negative impact of lower downstream production [3] - The overall sentiment remains bullish for lithium prices, although there are warnings about potential weakening fundamentals in Q2 [3] Group 4: Energy and Chemical Products - The energy and chemical sectors were active, driven by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which pushed international oil prices to a six-month high [3] - SC crude oil rose by over 6%, while high-sulfur fuel oil increased by over 2% and 5% respectively [3] - The rubber sector also saw collective gains, with 20 rubber, butadiene rubber, and natural rubber all rising around 4% [3] Group 5: Declining Commodities - The main contract for polysilicon fell over 4%, primarily due to high inventory levels and price pressures from declining silicon wafer prices [4] - The supply of caustic soda also increased, leading to a decline of 3.37% in its main contract, as supply remained ample and demand was weak [5] - The operational rates for alumina production decreased, contributing to a lack of demand in the caustic soda market [5]

【冠通期货研究报告】 天然橡胶日报：震荡偏多 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日 一、行情表现 2 月 24 日，天然橡胶主力合约收盘价 17030 元/吨，当日涨跌幅+3.9%。 今日现货市场同步回暖，泰国烟片、标胶报价上调，国内全乳胶现货报价跟 随期货上行，贸易商报价积极，据生意社监测，截至 2 月 24 日我国天然橡胶市 场现货胶行情在 16833 元/吨左右，较节前价格上涨了 3.38%。 节后下游企业集中复工复产，下游轮胎企业开工率将进一步抬升，天然橡胶 刚需恢复，市场交易氛围整体有望提升。国内汽车销量数据改善。在经济增速放 缓与宏观宽松周期交叠的格局下，宏观政策的变化将成为交易逻辑的核心主线。 四、基差方面 截至 2 月 14 日，与基准地为云南的橡胶现货价格比较，基差是-315 元/吨， 从绝对值来看低于全年基差均值，处于历史低位，有扩大的空间。 六、综上所述 二、供给方面 2026年1月泰国天然胶出口量37.11万吨，环比减少7.34万吨，跌幅16.51%， 同比减少 7.43%；出口量低于去年同期，利多价格。 2 月中下旬，泰国、印尼等主产国逐步进入低产季，叠加局部降雨影响出胶 量，原 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, strong operation, and a significant rise. The closing price increased by 3.90% to 17,030 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 spread widened to 200 yuan/ton. The rubber market has re - entered a bullish trend, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, volatile and upward - biased, and a significant rise. The futures price reached a maximum of 2,297 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,222 yuan/ton, and the closing price increased by 3.02% to 2,285 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 spread narrowed to 19 yuan/ton. The escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East have enhanced the methanol premium, driving the methanol price to stabilize and strengthen. It is expected that the methanol futures may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, gapping up, and strong operation. The futures price reached a maximum of 495.0 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 484.3 yuan/barrel, and the closing price increased by 6.18% to 493.3 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated again, the crude oil premium has significantly increased. It is expected that the oil price may maintain a high - level and upward - biased posture in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons or 2.55%. Bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%; general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.15 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.24 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [9]. - As of February 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points. During the Spring Festival holiday, most tire enterprises shut down, and the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will be at a low point for the year [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. Production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, and both decreased by 25.7% and 28.3% month - on - month respectively. The passenger car market declined, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve. In January, the LPI was 51.2%, a slight month - on - month decline of 1.2 percentage points but still in the expansion range. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in January, a significant year - on - year increase of about 39%, and it is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry in the first quarter of this year will increase slightly year - on - year [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.68%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.50%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.11%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0568 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 4,300 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 21,400 tons, and a small increase of 80,600 tons compared with 1.9762 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE all decreased slightly week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants increased by 1.21 percentage points week - on - week and 1.62% month - on - month. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 71 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decline of 30 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month recovery of 173 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 942,700 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 18,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 101,800 tons, and a small year - on - year increase of 43,600 tons. As of the week of February 12, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 340,300 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 110,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 159,800 tons compared with 500,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a small week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.713 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels per day and a small year - on - year increase of 219,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 428.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 8.53 million barrels and a small year - on - year increase of 969,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.113 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.071 million barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 100,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.4%, a small week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a small month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 4.4 percentage points [13]. - As of February 17, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 141,343 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 23,529 contracts and a significant increase of 68,529 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with an increase of 94.12%. As of February 17, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 250,016 contracts, a slight week - on - week decrease of 526 contracts and a significant increase of 65,570 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with an increase of 35.55% [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change in Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,950 yuan/ton | +700 yuan/ton | 17,030 yuan/ton | +715 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,300 yuan/ton | +98 yuan/ton | 2,285 yuan/ton | +97 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 464.1 yuan/barrel | +23.4 yuan/barrel | 493.3 yuan/barrel | +32.6 yuan/barrel | - 29.2 yuan/barrel | - 9.2 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as the rubber basis, 5 - 9 spread,上期所 rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][23]. - **Methanol**: The report contains charts of the methanol basis, 5 - 9 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][33][38]. - **Crude Oil**: The report has charts of the crude oil basis,上期所 crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][48][50].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17030 | 715 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13795 | 615 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 200 | 80 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -70 | -10 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3235 | 100 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 162068 | 21833 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 47522 | -263 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -37237 | -3430 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -7717 | 282 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 112570 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 50601 | -202 | | | | 现货市场 | | 16800 | | 16600 | | | | 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨 ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国天然橡胶行业市场深度分析及投资前景展望报告》 根据国家统计局公布的数据，林产品类别下的天然橡胶（标准胶SCRWF）2026年1月下旬市场价格为 15850元/吨，同比下滑4.79%，环比上涨1.53%，纵观近5年同时期其价格，2025年1月下旬达到最大值， 有16647.2元/吨。 2020-2026年1月下旬天然橡胶（标准胶SCRWF）市场价格变动统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [4][3]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $60-75 per barrel [4][5]. - The report highlights a potential spring boom in the chemical sector, driven by the success of domestic robotics showcased during the Spring Festival and favorable export conditions following tariff reductions [4][3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various chains, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and overseas real estate, with specific companies recommended for investment [4][3]. Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - The chemical industry is at a cyclical turning point, with downstream operations gradually resuming post-holiday, indicating a positive demand outlook for the year [4][3]. - The report notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, while the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.3, indicating some volatility in manufacturing activity [7][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on four key areas: textiles, agricultural chemicals, export chains, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies [4][3]. - Specific companies to watch include those in the textile chain like Lu Xi Chemical and Tongkun Co., and in the agricultural chain like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, recommending companies such as Yake Technology and Ruilian New Materials [4][3].

| | nimx@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586042 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 16315 | 13180 | 12590 | 现值 | 3135 | 3725 | 590 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 16450 | 13370 | 12780 | 前值 | 3080 | 3670 | 590 | | 市 | 涨跌 | -135 | -190 | -190 | 涨跌 | 55 | 55 | 0 | | 场 | 涨跌幅 | -0.82% | -1.42% | -1.49% | | | 基差 | | | | 成交量 | 165470 | 47212 | 12590 | | RU基差 | 混合-RU | 烟片-RU | | | 持仓量 | 140235 | 47785 | 54867 | 现值 ...

BR 日报 【银河期货】丁二烯橡胶每日早盘观察（26-02-24） 丁二烯橡胶：节前仓库仓单大幅累库 【市场情况】 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力 04 合约报收 12590 点，下跌-190 点或- 1.49%。截至前日 18 时，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 12500-12600 元/吨，山东民 营顺丁报收 12200-12300 元/吨，华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 12600 元/吨，华南 地区茂名石化顺丁报收 12500-12700 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 12800-12900 元/吨。山东地区丁二烯报收 10600-10700 元/吨。 RU/NR 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 05 合约报收 16315 点，下跌-135 点或- 0.82%。日胶主连报收 354.5 点，节中累计上涨+7.4 点或+2.1%。截至前日 12 时， 销地 WF 报收 16150-16200 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 16700 元/吨。NR 主力 04 合约报收 1380 点，下跌-190 点或-1.42%；新加坡 TF 主力 05 合约报收 193.8 点，节中累计上涨+2.0 点或+1.0% ...