来自内蒙古霍林郭勒的电解铝龙头企业创新实业集团有限公司(股份代号：02788.HK，简称"创新实 业")11月24日在港交所主板挂牌上市。 作为中国电解铝行业的出海领军者，创新实业此次IPO在公开发售阶段便受到资金热烈追捧，券商数据 显示，IPO国际配售获40余倍认购，吸引超300家全球顶级机构踊跃下单，包括主权基金、顶级国际长 线、中资长线等多家意见领袖机构强势入驻。同时，香港公开发售获得近450倍超额认购，市场参与度 火爆。 按当前募资规模测算，创新实业本次发行募资额有望跻身年度前十，以不含A+H股计，发行募资额有 望进入今年前三。 据了解，公司计划在2026年底将绿色能源占比提升至约50%，此举将大幅降低企业用电成本并增强整体 盈利能力。沙特阿拉伯作为创新实业海外布局的核心阵地，当地稳定且低成本的能源供给契合电解铝生 产的能源密集型特性，同时中东地区庞大的制造业扩张需求也为公司提供了本地市场空间。随着创新实 业把握中东电解铝产业链的增长机遇，未来产能的持续提升也将具备更稳固的基础。 值得注意的是，创新实业本次IPO具备估值优势。公司本次IPO发行对应2025年市盈率7.9倍，相较之 下，明显低于港股行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6] Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced a significant decline of 6.75% recently, with a notable single-day drop of 5.26% on November 21. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have decreased, leading some investors to believe that the sector may continue to face weakness [9][13] - Contrarily, the report suggests that the non-ferrous sector presents a buying opportunity, particularly in segments that have been unfairly punished. The recent downturn was largely influenced by a sharp decline in the lithium carbonate sector, which has created volatility in both commodity and stock markets [9][13] - The electrolytic aluminum sector is highlighted as a defensive play with a high dividend yield of around 6%. The report anticipates demand growth and price increases in 2026, driven by U.S. fiscal expansion and rising industrial metal demand [9][14] - The gold sector is expected to maintain a volatile short-term price trend, but the medium-term outlook remains bullish due to weakening U.S. dollar credit and rising inflation expectations [9][14] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report emphasizes the need to focus on undervalued segments within the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly electrolytic aluminum and gold, which are expected to rebound [9][13][14] Steel Industry - Steel production has seen a slight decline in iron output, while demand remains strong. The average daily output of iron from 247 steel companies is reported at 236.28 thousand tons, reflecting a minor decrease of 0.25% [15][20] - Social and steel mill inventories are on a downward trend, with total inventory decreasing by 3.01% week-on-week [22] - The profitability of steel products is under pressure due to rising costs, with the price of Australian iron ore increasing by 0.77% and the price of iron concentrate slightly decreasing by 1.02% [25][30] New Energy Metals - In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate production surged by 67.28% year-on-year, reaching 73,420 tons, while hydroxide production saw a slight decline [36][40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales in October 2025 increasing by 19.94% and 18.65% year-on-year, respectively [40][43] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 93,550 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.59% [45][46] Industrial Metals - The report notes a slight decline in metal prices, but they remain at high levels overall. The global refined copper output has increased, although supply growth is lagging behind demand [54]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of 100% equity in Baiyinhu Coal by Electric Power Investment Energy (002128.SZ) for a total price of 11.149 billion yuan marks a significant asset transfer within the state-owned enterprise system, despite the target company facing substantial financial and operational risks [1][6]. Financial Overview - Baiyinhu Coal's total assets and net assets are 25.2 billion yuan and 8.327 billion yuan, respectively, which represent approximately 46% and 22% of Electric Power Investment Energy's corresponding figures [4]. - In the first half of 2025, Baiyinhu Coal's revenue and net profit were 5.552 billion yuan and 0.762 billion yuan, accounting for about 38.38% and 27.34% of Electric Power Investment Energy's figures [4]. Transaction Details - The acquisition is structured as a combination of share issuance (86%) and cash payment (14%), effectively making it a "zero cash" acquisition for the listed company [8]. - The core assets acquired include the Baiyinhu No. 2 open-pit coal mine and the Baiyinhu Aluminum Electric Company, which will enhance Electric Power Investment Energy's coal and aluminum production capacities significantly [5][9]. Strategic Implications - This transaction is part of a broader strategy by the State Power Investment Group to optimize its asset allocation and enhance the operational focus of its listed platforms [8]. - The acquisition is expected to increase Electric Power Investment Energy's annual net profit by approximately 1.867 billion yuan [5]. Operational Risks - Baiyinhu Coal has a total debt of 16.9 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 67%, raising concerns about its cash flow and financial stability [12]. - The company faces significant depreciation risks due to high fixed assets valued at 14.176 billion yuan, which could impact future profitability [14]. - Baiyinhu Coal's reliance on related party transactions is concerning, with nearly 65% of its top five customers being affiliated entities [17]. Performance Commitments - The performance commitments for the core assets are deemed achievable, with projected profits exceeding the required thresholds for the coming years [10]. - Baiyinhu Coal's aluminum segment is expected to exceed its performance commitments, indicating a potentially stable revenue stream [10]. Regulatory and Compliance Issues - Baiyinhu Coal has faced multiple administrative penalties related to environmental and safety compliance, which could pose operational risks [15][16]. - The company has a significant amount of receivables, including over 1.2 billion yuan in other receivables, raising concerns about the collectability of these amounts [18].

11月22日上午，全省经济社会发展专题会（西片区）在泰安召开。会议深入学习贯彻党的二十届四 中全会和习近平总书记视察山东重要讲话精神，分析研究西片区各市经济运行情况，推动各级坚决完成 全年目标任务，确保"十四五"圆满收官、明年一季度"开门红"。 省委书记林武出席会议并讲话，省委副书记、省长周乃翔主持，省政协主席葛慧君，省人大常委会 副主任、党组书记杨东奇出席。 林武指出，西片区8市在全省大局中地位重要、作用突出，今年以来经济社会发展取得新的成效。 要坚定信心决心，继续精准落实党中央决策部署，全力冲刺收官，坚决实现全年经济社会发展目标。 林武强调，做好下步工作，要准确把握形势，着力做足增量、遏制减量、应对变量，推动经济实现 质的有效提升和量的合理增长。要全力以赴稳定工业运行，推动石化、钢铁、电解铝、汽车、纺织服装 等重点行业企业稳定生产、提质增效，推动新竣工投产企业尽快达产达效。要全力以赴稳定有效投资， 加快推进省市县三级重点项目建设，力争形成更多实物工作量。要全力以赴提振消费，持续促进商品消 费、新型消费，推动房地产高质量发展，提升服务业贡献度。要全力以赴稳住外贸基本盘，加快进博 会、广交会等新签订单交付进度 ...

Group 1: Banking Sector Insights - The net profit growth rate of commercial banks in the first three quarters of 2025 improved by 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025, with state-owned banks showing the highest growth at 2.3% [4] - City commercial banks demonstrated the most significant improvement, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8 percentage points [4] - The overall interest income is expected to have solid support for the year, and the recovery in capital markets is likely to sustain the growth of diversified income sources, particularly in fees and commissions [4] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Analysis - SMIC's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand and accelerated capacity expansion, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted to $7.4 billion, $11.0 billion, and $13.2 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 49%, 50%, and 20% [14] - The stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 3.5x for 2025 and 3.4x for 2026 in Hong Kong, and 6.2x for 2025 and 5.9x for 2026 in A-shares, maintaining a "buy" rating for both [14] Group 3: New Energy Sector Developments - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is projected to have long-term growth potential, with a recent procurement project exceeding 2 billion yuan, focusing on power systems and low-temperature systems [17] - Companies to watch include those involved in vacuum chambers, magnetic systems, and low-temperature systems, indicating a broad interest in the nuclear fusion sector [17] Group 4: E-commerce and Retail Performance - The brand Mao Ge Ping has shown strong sales growth during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with sales on various platforms increasing by 60.5% on Taobao, 39.8% on Douyin, and 22.3% on JD.com [11] - The brand entered the top 20 in the beauty category on Taobao for the first time, indicating a significant market presence [11] Group 5: Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - October's fiscal data indicates a decline in public budget expenditure year-on-year, with a need to monitor the effectiveness of incremental fiscal policies since September [30] - The government debt supply is nearing its end for the year, while increased fiscal deposits suggest potential liquidity release, which could positively impact future market conditions [30]

Core Viewpoint - The IPO of Innovation Industry (02788) has generated significant market enthusiasm, driven by a strong cornerstone investor lineup, oversubscription, and a clear global strategy, positioning it as a potential star stock in the Hong Kong market this year [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Performance - The IPO saw substantial trading activity, with the dark market trading of Huida and Futu rising by 30.57% and 26.02% respectively, totaling a transaction amount of 650 million HKD (approximately 83 million USD) [1]. - The public offering phase experienced overwhelming demand, with international placements being oversubscribed by over 40 times and retail subscriptions reaching nearly 450 times, marking it as one of the hottest IPOs of the year [1]. Group 2: Investment Support - The IPO was backed by 17 heavyweight cornerstone investors, including Hillhouse Capital and China Hongqiao, who collectively invested 351 million USD, underscoring the company's core position and investment value in the industry [2]. - The dual empowerment from the industry cycle and international strategy enhances the investment value of Innovation Industry, as it capitalizes on the global manufacturing recovery and the growth of the new energy sector [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Financial projections indicate that revenue will increase from 13.49 billion RMB in 2022 to 15.16 billion RMB in 2024, with net profit rising from 0.91 billion RMB to 2.63 billion RMB during the same period [3]. - The company ranks in the top 5% among Chinese electrolytic aluminum smelting companies in terms of cash cost management per ton of aluminum, providing strong support for capacity expansion and industrial upgrades [3]. Group 4: Valuation Advantage - The IPO is priced at a projected P/E ratio of 7.9 times for 2025, representing a 30% discount compared to comparable companies in the Hong Kong market, creating a favorable entry point for investors [3]. - The ongoing uptrend in the electrolytic aluminum industry and the release of capacity in Saudi Arabia are expected to drive strong valuation recovery for the company, with potential for significant future growth [3].

与此同时，创新实业本次IPO亦获得17名重量级基石投资者的鼎力加持，高瓴、中国宏桥、泰康人寿等 基石投资者豪掷3.51亿美元入局，豪华阵容与雄厚资金实力，进一步印证了公司在行业内的核心地位与 投资价值。 财务方面，创新实业的表现同样可圈可点。招股书显示，2022年至2024年期间，创新实业收入由人民币 134.90亿元提升至151.63亿元，年内利润由人民币9.13亿元提升至26.30亿元。根据大宗商品研究机构 CRU的报告，公司管理每吨铝现金成本的能力在中国所有电解铝冶炼公司中处于前5%之列，充沛的现 金流与高效的运营管理为其持续推进产能扩张与产业升级提供了有力支持。 智通财经APP获悉，11月21日，创新实业(02788)下午暗盘交易两大交易场辉力和富途均大幅上涨，其中 辉立暗盘收涨30.57%，收报14.35港元，富途收涨26.02%，收报13.85港元，合计成交金额6.5亿港元，对 应约8300万美金，交投非常活跃。作为中国电解铝行业的出海领军者，公司此次 IPO 不仅凭借豪华基 石投资阵容与火爆超额认购表现点燃市场热情，更以清晰的全球化战略、充沛的现金流及显著的估值优 势，成为今年港股市场极具潜力的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The IPO of Innovation Industry (02788.HK) has received an overwhelming response, with significant oversubscription rates indicating strong market interest and confidence in the company's growth prospects [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Performance - The international placement of the IPO was oversubscribed by over 40 times, attracting more than 300 top global institutions, including sovereign funds and leading long-term investors [1]. - The public offering in Hong Kong saw an extraordinary oversubscription rate of nearly 450 times, marking it as one of the hottest new stocks this year [1]. - The total fundraising amount from the IPO is expected to rank among the top ten for the year, and potentially within the top three when excluding A+H shares [1]. Group 2: Investor Confidence - The IPO was supported by a strong lineup of cornerstone investors, including Hillhouse Capital, China Hongqiao, and Taikang Life, who collectively invested $351 million, reflecting robust confidence in the company's fundamentals and growth outlook [1]. - The high level of cornerstone investment and the substantial oversubscription rates highlight the investment value of the company [1]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Position - The IPO pricing implies a 2025 price-to-earnings ratio of only 7.9 times, which is approximately a 30% discount compared to comparable companies in the Hong Kong market [1]. - The pricing strategy not only allows for significant upside potential but also presents an excellent opportunity for investors amid current market volatility [1]. Group 4: Business Expansion and Financial Performance - Innovation Industry has accelerated its international production layout, with Saudi Arabia being a key overseas market, leveraging stable energy costs and manufacturing expansion demands [2]. - Financially, the company is projected to increase its revenue from RMB 13.49 billion in 2022 to RMB 15.16 billion in 2024, with net profit rising from RMB 0.91 billion to RMB 2.63 billion during the same period [2]. - The company's ability to manage cash costs per ton of aluminum ranks it among the top 5% of all electrolytic aluminum smelting companies in China, indicating strong operational quality and providing ample room for expansion and upgrades [2].

创新实业(02788.HK)公开发售圆满收官，市场反响之热烈彻底引爆全场。根据券商数据显示，IPO国际 配售获40余倍认购，吸引超300家全球顶级机构踊跃下单，包括主权基金、顶级国际长线、中资长线等 多家意见领袖机构的强势入驻。同时，散户大军疯狂涌入，香港公开发售获得近450倍超额认购，为今 年罕见的高热度新股，市场参与度火爆。按当前募资规模测算，创新实业本次发行募资额有望跻身年度 前十，以不含A+H股计，发行募资额有望进入今年前三。 财务表现亦为上市提供强力支撑。招股书显示，2022年至2024年期间，创新实业收入由人民币134.90亿 元提升至151.63亿元，年内利润由人民币9.13亿元提升至26.30亿元。根据大宗商品研究机构CRU的报 告，公司管理每吨铝现金成本的能力在中国所有电解铝冶炼公司中处于前5%之列，反映业务运营质量 佳，为公司推进扩产、海外布局及产业升级提供了充裕空间。 认购圆满落幕，超高认购倍数释放强烈看涨信号，公司国际化战略叠加远超同行的业绩增速预期，创新 实业已成为近期港股市场最炙手可热的焦点新股！暗盘交易与首日表现备受期待！ 基石的豪华阵容以及超高的国配倍数，突显了公司的投资价值。 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a favorable investment outlook for risk assets in 2026, particularly recommending a bullish stance on stock assets, especially in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index expected to reach 7,800 points by the end of 2026 [1][7]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that by 2027, the Chinese economy will begin to recover, driven by food planning recommendations, improved US-China trade relations, and forecasts for the US and global economies. Key drivers for this recovery include technological innovation and consumer spending [1][4]. - The US economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026-2027, with AI investments boosting short-term economic performance and long-term productivity. The annualized profit growth for the US stock market is projected to reach 15% from 2025 to 2027 [1][7]. - The Chinese real GDP growth rate is forecasted to be 7.8% in 2026, with nominal GDP growth at 4.1%. By 2027, real GDP growth is expected to slightly slow to 4.6%, while nominal GDP growth rebounds to 4.8% [1][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - 2026 is viewed as the final year of China's battle against deflation, with significant progress expected by 2027. The US economy is projected to show resilience, particularly due to AI-related investments [3][4]. - The Asian economy's growth drivers are expected to shift from technology sectors to non-technology sectors, especially in domestic demand and consumption [14][15]. Stock Market Insights - The US stock market is favored, with expectations of broad market gains rather than reliance on a few large companies. Japan's stock market is also viewed positively due to favorable fiscal policies, while European stocks are expected to benefit from a strong US economy [7][8]. - Emerging markets are relatively underweighted, but India, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia are highlighted as favorable investment opportunities [2][7]. Policy Recommendations - To address challenges in the Chinese real estate market, potential policy measures include subsidizing mortgage rates, learning from Hong Kong's experience in removing purchase restrictions, and enhancing social feedback mechanisms [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the need for aggressive macroeconomic support policies to achieve significant valuation recovery in the Chinese stock market, which is expected to stabilize around a price-to-earnings ratio of 12-13 times [9][10].