天风证券表示，根据经济复苏与市场流动性，可以把投资主线降维为三个方向：1、AI产业革命带来的 算力、存力、 电力及应用的科技主线机会，2、内外共振，经济逐步修复，牛市主线风格"强者恒强"， 但周期后半段易有所表现，3、赔率思维，即考虑风格轮动、底部反转的可能性。连续三年跑输但第四 年跑赢概率较大的行业有 食品饮料、农林牧渔、社会服务、 医药生物。AI产业趋势的进展取决于 AI应 用端和消费端的突破，重视AI巨头的布局。牛市初期资金更偏好少数高景气赛道，后期资金抱团聚焦 主线，新增资金获利难度提升，而周期股又具备低估值、高贝塔的属性，易随着基本面回暖的深化而发 挥较好的业绩弹性，获得增量资金青睐。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a contraction with clear main lines driven by "policy" and "global pricing," focusing on sectors like oil and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and electric power equipment [1] Group 1: Leading Sector Drivers - Oil and Petrochemicals/Basic Chemicals: The rise is not just due to price increases but a reshaping of the supply-demand landscape, driven by energy security strategies and a significant price surge in upstream raw materials [2] - Electric Power Equipment: The sector is strengthened by clear signals of new investments in the power grid, particularly due to the 2026 subsidy policy for new energy vehicles favoring charging infrastructure [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The contrast between the booming resource manufacturing sectors and the weak consumer sectors like food and beverage indicates a natural risk-averse behavior as the market shifts from speculative stories to sectors with clear policies, prices, and orders [4] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile but structurally opportunistic environment, with funds focusing on certainty [5] Group 3: Focus Areas - Attention should be given to the new energy vehicle supply chain, particularly high-demand lithium battery materials and charging station operations, which are expected to benefit from the 2026 subsidy policy [7] - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves provides a long-term rationale for resource assets like precious metals, with a focus on mining companies that are closely linked to international prices and have production growth [7] - The chemical and manufacturing sectors should be explored for similar supply-demand improvements, as seen in the case of dispersed dyes driven by cost and demand recovery [7]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market adjusted, with trading volume continuing to decrease compared to the previous day [1][7] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4065.58 points, down 0.25%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13906.73 points, down 0.33%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3236.46 points, down 0.73% [10][11] - The market showed structural differentiation, with investors favoring industries with stable performance amid economic uncertainty [1][7] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration jointly issued a notice on February 5 regarding the "zero tariff" policy for imported goods for residents of Hainan Free Trade Port, allowing residents to purchase imported goods within an annual tax-free quota [2][8] - This policy aims to stimulate local consumption and attract permanent residents, benefiting the local retail and logistics sectors [2][8] - The implementation of this policy serves as a test for China's "inside-outside" special tariff system and may provide insights for nationwide consumption upgrades and trade liberalization [2][8] Digital Services Enhancement - On February 6, the National Immigration Administration, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and National Data Bureau issued opinions to enhance digital services for foreign visitors, focusing on facilitating entry documents and optimizing mobile payment services [3][9] - This initiative is expected to improve China's attractiveness to international businesspeople and tourists, benefiting sectors such as cross-border tourism, high-end retail, and international exhibitions [3][9] Trade Data Insights - According to the Ministry of Commerce, China's service trade is projected to grow steadily, with total service trade imports and exports reaching 80,823.1 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [3][9] - Service exports are expected to grow by 14.2%, indicating strong international competitiveness in knowledge-intensive sectors [3][9] - The significant reduction in the service trade deficit by 3,439.5 billion yuan compared to the previous year reflects ongoing structural optimization [3][9]

Market Overview - The A-share major indices mostly closed lower today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% at 4065.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.33% at 13906.73 points, the ChiNext Index down 0.73% at 3236.46 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index down 0.71% at 1422.41 points [1] - Overall, the market saw mixed performance with 2748 stocks rising and 2545 stocks falling, while 180 stocks remained flat. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 21,457 billion yuan, a decrease of 305 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and electric equipment led the gains, with increases of 2.55%, 2.05%, and 1.27% respectively. Conversely, industries like food and beverage, defense and military, and social services experienced declines, with drops of 1.86%, 1.66%, and 1.37% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that saw the highest gains today included lithium battery electrolyte, lithium battery anode, and solid-state batteries, among others. Notably, sectors such as liquor, cross-strait integration, and advanced packaging experienced pullbacks [2]

- The "Hong Kong CCASS Preferred 20 Portfolio" model was constructed using a two-step screening method: first selecting brokers and then selecting stocks[35][39] - The model identifies top-performing brokers by standardizing excess Sharpe ratios and monthly win rates, then combines them into a composite score[39] - The portfolio is built by equally distributing funds among the top 10 brokers and selecting the top 20 stocks based on weight, which are then equally weighted[39] - The benchmark index for the portfolio is the Hang Seng Index (HSI.HI)[40] Model Performance - January 2026 portfolio return: 6.32%, Hang Seng Index return: 6.85%, excess return: -0.53%[41] - Full period (2020.1–2026.1) excess annualized return: 19.3%, excess Sharpe ratio: 2.45[41] - Annualized excess returns by year: 2020: 30.9%, 2021: 12.0%, 2022: 11.9%, 2023: 22.5%, 2024: 23.2%, 2025: 18.6%, 2026 YTD: -6.2%[42] - Maximum drawdown during the full period: -7.6%[42] - Monthly win rate during the full period: 75.3%[42]

T a [ 行业研究|可选消费 证券研究报告 可选消费行业周报、月报 2026 年 02 月 04 日 b l [Table_Title] 国务院印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工 e _ M 作方案》，HBN 母公司港交所递表 ——商社美护行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 ] 本周（2026.01.26-2026.01.30），商贸零售/社会服务/美容护理分别- 4.18%/-3.45%/-3.76%，在 31 个一级行业中排名第 26/23/25，同期上 证综指-0.44%，深证成指-1.62%，沪深 300+0.08%。 本周行业重点事件及资讯 国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》。提出 3 方面支持政策，包括聚焦交通服务、家政服务、网络视听服务、旅居 服务、汽车后市场服务、入境消费等重点领域激发发展活力；聚焦演 出服务、体育赛事服务、情绪式体验式服务等潜力领域培育发展动能。 1 月 29 日，文化和旅游部在福建省泉州市正式启动 2026 年全国春节 文化和旅游消费月。消费月将从 1 月底持续至 3 月初，其间各地将推 出丰富多彩的应季文旅产品和活动，举办约 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the new consumption sector performed well, with service consumption policies expected to continue catalyzing growth in 2026 [2][27] - In 2025, the overall performance of the optional consumption sector was weak, but sub-sectors like new consumption showed significant gains, particularly in the first half of the year [16][21] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew moderately, with service retail growth outpacing that of goods retail, indicating a shift towards service consumption [21][27] Group 2 - The tourism sector is expected to benefit from extended holiday periods and improved vacation policies, with companies like Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel being key focuses [3] - The hotel market is showing signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in RevPAR and increasing leisure demand, highlighting companies like Jin Jiang Hotels and Huazhu Group [3] - The duty-free sector is experiencing a boost from new policies, particularly in Hainan, with a focus on high-end consumption recovery [3] Group 3 - The cosmetics industry saw a slight growth of 6.18% in 2025, with domestic brands continuing to gain market share [4][30] - The medical beauty market is projected to reach approximately 366.6 billion in 2025, with a K-shaped consumption differentiation emerging [4][30] - Innovations in core ingredients and the integration of biotechnology are driving brand growth in the cosmetics sector [4][36] Group 4 - The IP derivative market is expanding due to a flourishing supply of IP and commercial operations, with domestic policies expected to further mature the industry ecosystem [5] - Key players in the IP space include Shanghai Film, Light Media, and Pop Mart, with a focus on both domestic and international market expansion [5] Group 5 - The gold and jewelry sector saw a cumulative growth of 12.78% in retail sales from January to December, with a focus on brand premium capabilities and international expansion [6][9] - The rise of "self-wearing" scenarios is driving gold jewelry sales, with brands like Chao Hong Ji and Lao Pu Gold being highlighted for their international strategies [9]

Group 1 - In the fourth week of January, the total net outflow of funds was 148.3 billion, compared to a net inflow of 173.9 billion in the previous week [1][8] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 627%, placing it in the 90th percentile historically [1][12] - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.48%, in the 46th percentile historically [2][12] Group 2 - The top three industries by trading volume in the past week were semiconductor (99%), non-ferrous metals (98%), and defense industry (97%), while the lowest were food processing (0%), transportation (0%), and real estate (1%) [2][14] - The highest financing transaction ratio industries were machinery equipment (86%), electric power equipment (82%), and social services (79%), while the lowest were banking (14%), non-bank financials (20%), and real estate (20%) [2][14]

2月2日，A股市场整体下跌。截至收盘，上证指数收报4015.75点，下跌2.48%，深证成指收报 13824.35点，下跌2.69%，创业板指收报3264.11点，下跌2.46%，北证50指数下跌2.03%。 1. A股市场全天资金净流出539.77亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出143.2亿元，尾盘净流出157.11亿元，A股市场全天资金净流出 539.77亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2026-2-2 | -539.77 | -143. 20 | -157. 11 | -384. 36 | | 2026-1-30 | -595. 71 | -279.84 | -50. 70 | -303.01 | | 2026-1-29 | -602. 22 | -221.16 | -98.94 | -296. 09 | | 2026-1-28 | -274.87 | -58.90 | -29.34 | -118. 55 | | ...

Group 1 - In the fourth week of January, the total net outflow of funds was 148.3 billion, compared to a net inflow of 173.9 billion in the previous week [1][8] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 627%, placing it in the 90th percentile historically [1][12] - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.48%, in the 46th percentile historically [2][12] Group 2 - The top three industries by trading volume percentage in the past week were semiconductor (99%), non-ferrous metals (98%), and defense industry (97%), while the lowest were food processing (0%), transportation (0%), and real estate (1%) [2][14] - The highest financing transaction percentage industries were machinery equipment (86%), electric power equipment (82%), and social services (79%), while the lowest were banking (14%), non-bank financials (20%), and real estate (20%) [2][14]