A-share Market Performance - A-shares saw collective gains across the three major indices from September 22 to September 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3828.11 points, up 0.21% for the week [2][3] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.00 points, up 1.06%, while the ChiNext Index ended at 3151.53 points, up 1.96% [2][3] - Over 30% of stocks experienced gains during the week, with 126 stocks rising over 15% and 50 stocks declining over 15% [2] Sector Performance - According to the Shenwan industry classification, sectors such as electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, electronics, environmental protection, media, and public utilities saw increases [2] - Conversely, sectors including social services, comprehensive, retail, light industry manufacturing, and textiles and apparel experienced declines [2] International Market Overview - The New York stock market indices rose on September 26, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 299.97 points to close at 46247.29 points, a gain of 0.65% [4][5] - The S&P 500 index rose by 38.98 points to 6643.70 points, up 0.59%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 99.37 points to 22484.07 points, up 0.44% [4][5] - European indices also saw gains, with the FTSE 100 rising by 70.85 points to 9284.83 points, up 0.77%, and the CAC 40 increasing by 75.26 points to 7870.68 points, up 0.97% [4][5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures for November delivery rising by $0.74 to $65.72 per barrel, a gain of 1.14% [4][5] Economic Policies and Initiatives - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a meeting to discuss the economic operation of state-owned enterprises, focusing on stabilizing electricity and coal prices and preventing excessive competition [6] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting January 1, 2026, export licenses will be required for pure electric passenger vehicles to promote healthy trade in new energy vehicles [6] - The People's Bank of China suggested enhancing monetary policy regulation to improve effectiveness and match monetary supply growth with economic growth [7][8] Industry Growth Plans - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other departments issued a growth plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026 [9] - A similar plan for the petrochemical industry was also released, emphasizing policy support and financial backing for technological innovation and equipment upgrades [9] Industrial Profit Trends - From January to August, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China grew by 0.9%, reversing a previous decline, with significant growth observed in August [10] Market Outlook - Analysts from Everbright Securities expect the A-share market to continue rising post-holiday, with a focus on the TMT sector as a key driver [11] - Open-source Securities suggests a dual-driven market with technology leading, and recommends focusing on high P/E stocks as the market transitions [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the consumer sector, particularly in food and beverage, social services, agriculture, apparel, light industry, and home appliances [6]. Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to shift focus from production to a balanced emphasis on production and consumption, enhancing the international competitiveness of China's soft consumption sectors, particularly in lifestyle and entertainment [5][9]. - The report highlights the rapid internationalization of China's hard consumption sectors, such as home appliances and automotive, while soft consumption sectors like internet services and cultural products are beginning to gain global traction [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the potential for Chinese brands in the ready-to-drink beverage market to emerge as global leaders, similar to Starbucks, due to the rapid growth and expansion of the industry [29][32]. Summary by Sections Encouraging Consumption Industry to Go Global - The report discusses the need for innovation-driven development to enhance China's position in the global value chain, focusing on high-end manufacturing and cultural exports [9][11]. - It outlines the importance of building a comprehensive technological innovation system to support the transition to high-value production [11][12]. Globalization of Chinese Dining and Ready-to-Drink Beverages - The report notes that the ready-to-drink beverage market has reached a size of $779.1 billion in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 7.2% from 2023 to 2028 [29][30]. - It highlights the potential for Chinese brands to establish a significant presence in the global market, particularly in Southeast Asia, where cultural similarities and low brand saturation provide ample opportunities [40]. Global Retail and Chinese Models - The report indicates that Chinese retail models, such as Miniso, are successfully internationalizing, demonstrating the adaptability and competitiveness of Chinese brands in the global market [5][9]. Cultural Content Going Global - The report emphasizes the increasing international competitiveness of Chinese cultural products, particularly in the fields of gaming and internet content, with notable successes in global markets [5][9][22]. - It discusses the supportive policies from the Chinese government aimed at promoting cultural exports and enhancing the global presence of Chinese brands [22][23]. Consumer Sector Valuation and Allocation - The report provides insights into the market performance and institutional allocation within the consumer sector, indicating a favorable outlook for various segments [6][8].

Core Insights - The report indicates that despite short-term fluctuations before the holiday, the overall market trend remains positive, with structural opportunities in sectors like technology and new energy [1][2][38]. Market Overview - During the week of September 22 to September 26, the A-share market experienced a slight upward trend, with the overall index rising by 0.25%. The STAR 50 index led the gains with an increase of 6.47%, while the ChiNext index rose nearly 2%. However, the Northbound 50 and CSI 1000 indices recorded declines [2][4]. - The market displayed significant structural volatility, with hotspots focusing on semiconductors, new energy, and non-ferrous metals [4][8]. Fund Flow - The trading activity in the A-share market saw a decrease, with an average daily turnover of 23,132 billion yuan, down by 2,046.53 billion yuan from the previous week. The average turnover rate was 1.9084%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points [13][15]. - Northbound capital's average daily turnover was 2,917.83 billion yuan, down by 203.84 billion yuan from the previous week. The margin trading balance increased to 24,443.17 billion yuan, up by 461.73 billion yuan [15][21]. Valuation Changes - As of September 26, the overall A-share index's PE (TTM) valuation rose by 0.1% to 22.12 times, placing it at the 88.75 percentile since 2010. The PB (LF) valuation increased by 0.12% to 1.80 times, at the 48.55 percentile [30][34]. - The report highlights that 20 out of 31 primary industries have PE valuations above the 50th percentile since 2010, indicating a generally high valuation environment [33][34]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that the market is expected to experience a key window period with the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan." This could enhance market risk appetite [38][39]. - Key investment themes include: - New quality productivity: Emphasizing technology self-reliance and supporting companies with genuine technological barriers [39]. - Anti-involution policies: Encouraging companies to focus on product value and service quality, leading to better resource allocation [39]. - Consumer sector: The expansion of domestic demand policies is anticipated to boost the consumer sector [39]. - Major infrastructure projects: Accelerated construction of significant projects is expected to drive related industry growth [39].

Group 1 - The report by Galaxy Securities focuses on the development of the consumption industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the global competitiveness of the soft consumption sector in lifestyle and entertainment [1][2] - In the global retail landscape, leading companies are primarily from the US, Europe, and Japan, with Walmart topping the list at $676 billion in revenue and 10,692 stores by 2025 [1][2] - Chinese retail brands are rapidly expanding, with notable examples including Mixue Ice City with over 41,000 stores and Luckin Coffee with over 21,000 stores, indicating strong market penetration of local brands [1][2] Group 2 - The soft consumption sector, particularly in entertainment, has shown significant international expansion, with Chinese productions like "Ne Zha" being featured on platforms like Netflix and Disney+ [2][11] - The domestic consumption-related sectors have experienced varied performance since 2025, with indices like the CSI 300 and Hang Seng showing different trends in non-essential and essential consumption [2][11] - Valuation disparities exist across different consumption segments, with sectors like food and beverage, home appliances, and social services showing fluctuations around industry averages [2][11] Group 3 - The report anticipates continued growth in the lifestyle and entertainment soft consumption sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan," driven by domestic consumption upgrades and globalization efforts [2][11] - Digitalization and localized operations are identified as key strategies for enhancing competitiveness among domestic brands in the global market [2][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of cultural exports in enhancing China's cultural influence globally, with policies supporting the internationalization of cultural products and services [31][32]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced slight fluctuations this week, with technology growth stocks performing well, as the ChiNext Index and STAR Market Index reached new highs, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shanghai 50 Index showed sideways movement [1] - Weekly trading volume decreased to 11.57 trillion yuan, marking a six-week low due to holiday effects [1] Electronic Industry - The electronic sector attracted significant capital, with a net financing purchase exceeding 45.8 billion yuan for the week, marking the 14th consecutive week of net purchases over 10 billion yuan [2] - The electronic industry received a net inflow of over 412 billion yuan from major funds over the week, leading all sectors in net inflow [2] - Other sectors such as power equipment, telecommunications, and computers also saw substantial net purchases, while non-ferrous metals and non-bank financial sectors experienced net selling [2] Wind Power and Chemical Industries - The wind power sector showed strong performance, with the wind power equipment index rising for four consecutive days, reaching a two-and-a-half-year high [3] - The average bidding price for onshore wind turbines increased by 12.8% from 2024 to 2025, indicating a positive trend in the wind power market [3] - The chemical sector also saw collective strength, with new listings and significant price increases in various chemical products, including refrigerants and titanium dioxide [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts expect certain chemical sub-industries to experience a phase of improvement due to ongoing policy effects, leading to healthier and more sustainable industry development [5] - The technology sector is anticipated to remain a core focus for the market, with structural opportunities expected to arise in the near future [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that despite market fluctuations, the bullish trend in the A-share market remains intact, with expectations of a "slow bull" market in the future [6][14][15] - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced a slight decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.29%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.21% [6][9][14] - Key sectors leading the market today include banking (+1.53%), coal (+1.15%), and public utilities (+0.41%), while sectors such as social services (-3.53%) and computing (-2.54%) faced declines [9][14][15] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the market's short-term performance is influenced by micro liquidity and market sentiment, with stable sectors like banking and coal showing strength [14][15] - It suggests that the market is likely to maintain relative strength due to ample liquidity, with long-term capital entering the market, potentially leading to a "slow bull" trend [14][15] - The report outlines a focus on sectors with improving revenue growth and gross margins, such as fiberglass, cement, and fine chemicals, as well as technology growth areas like AI computing and robotics [14][15]

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - A-share market: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3821.83 points, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.29% to 13119.82 points, and ChiNext Index rose 0.21% to 3114.55 points. The total trading volume of A-shares was 2518.8 billion yuan [2][6]. - Industry performance: Top gainers were banking (1.52%), coal (1.11%), and power equipment (0.43%); top losers were social services (-3.11%), commerce and retail (-2.90%), and computer (-2.39%) [2][6]. 2. Stock ETFs - Top trading volume: E Fund ChiNext ETF rose 0.36% with a premium rate of 0.33%; Huaxia SSE STAR 50 ETF fell 0.27% with a premium rate of -0.28%; Harvest SSE STAR Market Chip ETF rose 0.42% with a premium rate of 0.51% [3][7]. 3. Bond ETFs - Top trading volume: Haifutong CSI Short - Term Financing Bond ETF had a 0.00% change with a premium rate of -0.01%; Bosera CSI Convertible and Exchangeable Bond ETF fell 0.22% with a premium rate of -0.27%; E Fund CSI AAA Sci - tech Innovation Corporate Bond ETF fell 0.04% with a premium rate of -0.11% [4][9]. 4. Gold ETFs - Gold prices: AU9999 rose 1.33% and Shanghai Gold rose 1.11%. Top trading volume: Huaan Gold ETF rose 1.18% with a premium rate of 1.34%; Bosera Gold ETF rose 1.17% with a premium rate of 1.35%; E Fund Gold ETF rose 1.13% with a premium rate of 1.30% [12]. 5. Commodity Futures ETFs - Performance: ChinaAMC Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF fell 2.17% with a premium rate of -0.19%; Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metals Futures ETF fell 0.41% with a premium rate of -0.29%; Jianxin Yisheng Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Energy and Chemical Futures ETF fell 0.31% with a premium rate of -0.81% [15]. 6. Cross - border ETFs - Index performance: Previous day, Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14%, NASDAQ rose 0.70%, S&P 500 rose 0.44%, and German DAX fell 0.48%. Today, Hang Seng Index fell 0.70% and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.86%. Top trading volume: E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF fell 2.96% with a premium rate of -3.20%; Huatai - Peregrine Hang Seng Tech ETF fell 1.80% with a premium rate of -1.68%; Huaxia Hang Seng Tech ETF fell 1.77% with a premium rate of -1.45% [17]. 7. Money ETFs - Top trading volume: Yin Hua Day - to - Day Profit ETF, Hua Bao Tian Yi ETF, and Jianxin Tian Yi Money ETF [19].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18% closing at 3821.83 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.29% closing at 13119.82 points. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.21% to close at 3114.55 points. Overall, 4264 stocks fell while 1107 stocks rose, with a total trading volume of 24944 billion yuan, an increase of 3729 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only five sectors including banking, coal, electric equipment, public utilities, and home appliances saw gains, while the rest experienced declines. The sectors that led the decline included social services, retail, computer, comprehensive, steel, and pharmaceutical biology [1][2]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included semiconductor equipment, semiconductor silicon wafers, advanced packaging, central enterprise banks, photolithography machines, the SMIC industrial chain, EDA, selected banks, Moore Threads, selected central enterprise coal, semiconductor industry, semiconductor materials, the National Big Fund, selected coal mining, and photovoltaic inverters [2].

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:28，今日沪指跌1.14%，A股成交量787.65亿股，成交金额12471.72 亿元，比上一个交易日增加19.17%。个股方面，431只个股上涨，其中涨停29只，4970只个股下跌，其 中跌停31只。从申万行业来看，银行、煤炭等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.66%、0.29%；社会服务、房地 产、计算机等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为4.26%、3.79%、3.59%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:28） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 1.66 | 204.44 | 109.73 | 南京银行 | 4.49 | | 煤炭 | 0.29 | 81.57 | 33.64 | 永泰能源 | 3.70 | | 公用事业 | -0.26 | 161.76 | 11.48 | 东望时代 | -5.97 | | 石油石化 | -0.57 | 41.85 | 7.35 | 宝利国际 | -5.93 | | 交通运输 | - ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/9/23 星期二 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | | | | | IF当月 | IF下月 IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4510.00 4487.00 4464.40 | 4440.40 | | | 前日收盘价 | 4506.40 4493.40 4484.00 | 4459.00 | | | 沪深300 | 涨跌 -3.38 -1.60 13.60 | 12.40 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.07 -0.04 0.30 | 0.28 | | | 成交量 | 33705.00 2045.00 65934.00 | 8437.00 | ...