炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：光大证券 本周A 股表现亮眼 本周A 股主要宽基指数普遍收涨。从主要宽基指数来看，本周A 股主要宽基指数普遍收涨，中证500、 创业板指、中小100 涨幅相对较大，上证50、上证指数、沪深300 涨幅相对较小。从估值来看，当前科 创50、万得全A 等指数估值分位数相对偏高，截至2025 年12 月26 日，其2010 年以来PE（TTM）分位 数均高于85%。 本周小盘成长风格占优，申万一级行业走势分化，有色金属、国防军工等行业涨幅靠前，而美容护理、 社会服务等行业跌幅居前。从市场风格来看，本周仅大盘价值小幅收跌，其余风格指数均收涨，小盘成 长涨幅靠前。行业方面，本周申万一级行业走势分化，有色金属、国防军工、电力设备、电子涨幅居 前，美容护理、社会服务、银行、煤炭跌幅居前。 本周重要事件回顾 政策方面，中国人民银行发布一次性信用修复政策有关安排，符合相关条件的逾期信息将不会在个人信 用报告中予以展示；住房城乡建设工作会议明确2026 年房地产发展重点，北京进一步优化调整房地产 政策；此外，近期央行召开2025年第四季度例会，强调继 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the "cross-year market" period is characterized by significant industry rotation and style switching rather than a straightforward market trend, with historical patterns indicating mixed performance across indices [2][4]. - Over the past decade, major broad-based indices have shown an average decline during the cross-year period, with the average returns for the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 indices in January being -4.71%, -6.67%, and -6.68% respectively, indicating a win rate below 50% [2][4]. - The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indices have shown average returns of -0.72% and -1.54% in January, with a win rate of 50% over the last ten years, suggesting a relatively stronger performance compared to smaller indices [2][4]. Group 2 - The article highlights that the characteristics of the cross-year market are not indicative of a general beta market trend, but rather a "defensive December and strong differentiation in January" structure, with defensive sectors performing better in December [7][12]. - In January, the banking sector has consistently outperformed other sectors, maintaining a position among the top five in terms of monthly returns, except for 2020 and 2023 [7][12]. - The average returns for most sectors in January have been negative, with many sectors showing win rates of only 30-40%, indicating a lack of broad-based gains and a tendency for performance differentiation [7][12]. Group 3 - Historical statistics suggest that the cross-year phase is not a favorable period for quantitative long strategies to achieve excess returns, but rather exposes differences in strategy concentration, drawdown control, and volatility adaptation [12]. - For investors holding quantitative long private equity funds, the focus during the cross-year period should be on assessing the ability of their products to maintain net value stability in a volatile and differentiated environment [12]. - From an asset allocation perspective, it is advisable to consider complementary configurations of styles and assets to smooth out portfolio volatility, particularly given the banking sector's relative strength in January [12].

"2026年将迎来关键的中美政策周期共振，这不仅是宏观需求的重要推手，更将成为A股市场从流动性 驱动迈向盈利驱动新阶段的核心转折点。"近日，在谈及新一年的投资展望时，招商证券首席策略分析 师张夏提出了鲜明观点。 在他看来，以PPI回升为标志的盈利改善将引领市场进入牛市第三阶段，而内需复苏与科技自立构成的 双轮驱动主线，将定义全年的核心机遇。 中美需求共振，有望提振大宗商品需求 2026年A股会面临怎样的宏观环境？ 招商证券策略研究团队认为，过去依赖地产、基建信用扩张的增长模式已式微，2022年后广义政府支出 成为总需求波动的核心边际力量，股市走势与之高度相关。在"十五五"规划开局之年，政策定调积极， 预计财政支出将保持扩张，基建与重大项目集中落地有望带动投资，特别是基建增速回升，与潜在的房 地产企稳政策形成合力，共同对冲出口回落压力，推动内需回暖、总需求增速重回扩张。 与此同时，2026年正值美国中期选举年。"历史规律显示美国政府倾向于推行扩张性财政货币政策以提 振经济"，张夏指出，这与中国"十五五"开局形成中美需求共振，有望提振全球工业金属等大宗商品需 求。同时，在美元信用长期过度扩张、其全球储备货币地位相 ...

| 图1、2016年以来股价与美元兑人民币汇率负相关性居前的细分行业 | | --- | 智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研究报告称，综合各行业2016年以来股价与美元兑人民币汇率的全时段相关性和滚动三个月相关性中位数，股价与美元 兑人民币汇率负相关性靠前(即人民币升值驱动股价上行)的细分行业，核心逻辑可归纳为三类：原材料进口依赖度较高、人民币升值驱动进口成本下降： 包括焦炭、钢铁、部分化工品(塑料、化学原料、农化制品、橡胶)、能源金属、造纸、航空机场、农产品加工等。 美元负债成本较高、人民币升值驱动美元负债成本下降：典型如通过海外融资降低融资成本、拓宽融资渠道的建筑地产链(房地产开发、房地产服务、专 业工程)、出于跨境业务货币匹配需求持有较高美元负债的物流、光学光电子、贸易、多元金融。人民币购买力提升带动内需/跨境消费需求：主要集中在 服务消费和高端消费领域，包括跨境电商、酒店餐饮、饰品等。 | 人民币升值受益逻辑 | 一级行业 | 二级行业 | | 股价与美元兑人民币汇率相关性 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2016年以来-整体 | 2 ...

18个主力资金净流出行业中，基础化工、医药生物行业主力资金净流出金额居前，均超10亿元；交通运输、食品饮料、传媒、有色金属、非银金 融行业主力资金净流出金额均超8亿元。 15股主力资金净流入均超4亿元 （原标题：主力资金丨尾盘大幅加仓股出炉） 电子行业主力资金净流入49.16亿元，居首。 A股三大指数今日（12月24日）集体上涨，沪指日线六连阳。行业板块多数收涨，电源设备、航天航空、船舶制造、玻璃玻纤、包装材料、消费 电子、化纤行业、计算机设备板块涨幅居前，贵金属、保险板块跌幅居前。 从今日主力资金情况来看，沪深两市全天主力资金净流入3.81亿元。13个行业主力资金净流入，电子行业主力资金净流入49.16亿元，居首；电力 设备、国防军工行业主力资金分别净流入22.17亿元、12.33亿元；社会服务、建筑装饰、建筑材料行业主力资金净流入金额均超过2亿元。 声明：数据宝所有资讯内容不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 校对：姚远 相关ETF 据证券时报·数据宝统计，从个股来看，45股主力资金净流入均超2亿元，15股获主力资金净流入均超4亿元。 德明利主力资金净流入9.55亿元，居首。公司在近日的机构调研中表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a mixed performance, with the high dividend ETF fund (513820) showing resilience and attracting significant capital inflows, indicating strong investor interest in dividend-yielding assets [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed trend in early trading on December 24, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index down by 0.42% [1]. - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF fund (513820) recorded a slight decline of 0.08%, with a premium widening to 0.73% by the end of the trading session, reflecting active buying interest [1][3]. - The fund has seen a strong inflow of over 600 million yuan for 17 consecutive days, bringing its total size to over 4.3 billion yuan, significantly outperforming other ETFs in the same index [1][5]. Group 2: Fund Composition and Performance - The majority of the constituent stocks of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF fund (513820) experienced declines, with notable exceptions like HSBC Holdings, which rose over 1% [3][4]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the fund include China Pacific Insurance, China Telecom, and Agricultural Bank of China, with varying performance among them [4]. - The fund's index has a dividend yield of 7.25%, which is higher than similar indices in both Hong Kong and A-shares, establishing it as a leading choice for dividend investors [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Outlook - Multiple factors are contributing to the opening of a mid-term trading window for Hong Kong stocks, including a market adjustment that has increased safety margins and a continued net inflow of southbound funds [5]. - The current environment suggests a focus on high-quality dividend stocks with sustainable payouts and stable earnings, as the defensive attributes of dividend investments may weaken in a rising interest rate environment [6]. - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF fund (513820) is positioned as a "pure high dividend" strategy, which is expected to perform well in the current market conditions, especially as institutional demand for dividend assets increases [10][11].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, focusing on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][28]. Core Insights - The market performance for the week of December 15-20, 2025, showed significant gains in the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors, outperforming the overall market with increases of +6.66%, +2.66%, and +2.87% respectively [2][14]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to November 2025 reached 45.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. In November alone, retail sales totaled 4.39 trillion yuan, growing by 1.3% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [3][22]. - The service consumption growth rate outpaced that of goods retail, with service retail sales increasing by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [3][22]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The beauty care, retail, and social services sectors ranked first, fourth, and third among 31 primary industries, respectively, during the week [2][14]. - Specific sub-sectors such as general retail, hotel and catering, and professional chains saw notable increases of +9.67%, +8.40%, and +5.06% [15]. Key Industry Data and News - The retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 showed a modest increase, with categories like communication equipment and jewelry performing well, while automotive and home appliances faced challenges due to high base effects and subsidy reductions [3][22]. - The Ministry of Commerce initiated a two-year pilot program for new consumption models in 50 cities, aiming to stimulate consumption through various innovative approaches [3][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the beauty care and new consumption sectors, recommending specific stocks such as Shangmei Co., Juzhi Biotechnology, and Marubi Biotechnology [5][28].

2025 年 12 月 24 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 每日投资策略 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,774 | -0.11 | 28.49 | | 恒生国企 | 8,914 | -0.29 | 22.28 | | 恒生科技 | 5,489 | -0.69 | 22.85 | | 上证综指 | 3,920 | 0.07 | 16.95 | | 深证综指 | 2,492 | -0.02 | 27.32 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,205 | 0.41 | 49.65 | | 美国道琼斯 | 48,442 | 0.16 | 13.86 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,910 | 0.46 | 17.48 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,562 | 0.57 | 22.01 | | 德国 DAX | 24,340 | 0.23 | 22.26 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the "closure" of Hainan Free Trade Port is not about isolation but represents a higher level of openness, marking a significant shift in China's approach to foreign trade and investment [4][5]. Total Research - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced its full island closure operations on December 18, 2025, establishing a customs supervision special area with a new management system [4]. - The operational model of the closure can be summarized as "one line open, two lines controlled, and free movement within the island" [4]. - The customs will simplify the clearance process for most goods entering Hainan, particularly those on the "zero tariff" negative list [4]. - The management of goods entering the mainland from Hainan will be precise, focusing on tax-exempt and value-added goods to prevent market disruption [4]. Policy Changes - The closure operation will introduce four major policy benefits: more favorable "zero tariff" policies, relaxed trade management measures, efficient supervision, and expanded tax benefits [6]. - This marks a transition for Hainan from a "policy exploration zone" to a "formal operation zone," providing unprecedented development momentum [5]. Industry Impact - The closure will reshape Hainan's industries and sectors, impacting cost structures, supply chains, market access, and competitive landscapes [7]. - In the consumption and tourism sector, Hainan aims to establish a comprehensive duty-free and high-quality service system, reinforcing its status as an international tourism consumption center [7]. - The modern service industry is expected to advance towards higher-end and international standards, attracting international financial and professional service institutions [7]. - The high-tech industry will benefit from the closure, particularly in the biopharmaceutical sector, creating a rapid pathway for innovation and reshaping global competition [7].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.07% to close at 3919.98 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.27% to 13368.99 points. The ChiNext Index rose by 0.41% to 3205.01 points, indicating a generally stable market with 1508 stocks rising and 3852 stocks falling [1][10]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, the leading sectors included Power Equipment, Building Materials, Electronics, Nonferrous Metals, and Banking, with respective gains of 1.12%, 0.88%, 0.58%, 0.42%, and 0.37%. Conversely, sectors such as Social Services, Beauty Care, Retail, Defense, and Computers experienced declines, with losses of 2.07%, 1.65%, 1.60%, 1.42%, and 1.05% respectively [1][10]. Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors included Lithium Battery Electrolyte, Glass Fiber, Liquid Cooling Servers, Power Batteries, Copper Clad Laminates, Lithium Battery Anodes, Solid-State Batteries, Lithium Batteries, Fluorine Chemicals, Sodium-Ion Batteries, Lithium Mines, Lithium Battery Cathodes, and Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries. These sectors showed significant upward movement, reflecting strong investor interest [2][12].