Group 1: G20 and International Cooperation - G20 finance ministers and central bank governors committed to strengthening international policy cooperation despite rising tensions from trade wars [4][5] - The G20 public statement highlighted increasing global economic uncertainty and complex challenges, including ongoing wars, geopolitical tensions, and trade frictions [6][8] - Emphasis was placed on the importance of multilateral cooperation to address current and emerging global economic risks [7][8] Group 2: China and EU Sanctions - China's Ministry of Commerce expressed strong opposition to the EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia, which included Chinese companies and financial institutions [9][10] - The Chinese government criticized the EU's unilateral sanctions as lacking international legal basis and urged the EU to cease such actions [10] Group 3: US-Japan Trade Agreement - President Trump announced a significant trade agreement with Japan, establishing a 15% tariff rate on Japanese imports and a $550 billion investment from Japan into the US [11][12] - The agreement is expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs in the US and open Japanese markets for various products [13][14] Group 4: Artificial Intelligence Developments - The EU released guidelines for general AI model providers to comply with the upcoming AI Act, defining general AI models and their obligations [21][22] - The UK announced a £1 billion investment to enhance computing infrastructure for AI development, aiming to increase public computing power by 20 times over five years [23][24] - OpenAI signed a $300 billion contract with Oracle for data center services, significantly boosting Oracle's revenue potential [26][28] Group 5: Semiconductor Industry Updates - TSMC's advanced packaging plant faced multiple safety incidents, leading to a work stoppage [57][58] - South Korean AI chip startup FuriosaAI secured a significant contract with LG for its AI chip, RNGD, to support LG's AI initiatives [62][63] - A new semiconductor production line in Shaanxi, China, is set to begin trial production in September, with a total investment of 4.5 billion yuan [69][70] Group 6: Automotive Industry News - BYD postponed the mass production of its new factory in Hungary to 2026, while its Turkish factory is expected to start production earlier [88] - Stellantis plans to launch electric vehicles in South Africa, starting with the Leapmotor C10 model [89][90] Group 7: Aerospace and Space Exploration - The European Space Agency is working on the "Invictus" hypersonic spaceplane project, aiming for its first flight by 2031 [99][101] - SpaceX successfully launched two high-performance internet satellites and achieved a successful sea recovery of its Falcon 9 rocket [106][108]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the Hong Kong stock market showed a "V" shape trend, with significant gains in high-speed rail, infrastructure, and hydropower concept stocks [1] - The Hong Kong Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (520990) experienced a rise of over 2% in the afternoon session, closing up 1.80%, marking a potential three-day winning streak [1] - Major stocks such as China Communications Construction surged over 8%, while China Railway Construction and China CRRC increased by over 6%, and other companies like China National Offshore Oil and COSCO Shipping also saw gains of over 5% [1] Group 2 - According to Wind data, the Hong Kong Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (520990) has seen net inflows for three consecutive trading days, accumulating over 400 million yuan in net inflows for the month [1] - Tianfeng Securities noted a recovery trend in the second-quarter orders of central state-owned enterprises, with China Railway's Q2 order growth rate at 20.08% year-on-year and China Nuclear Engineering's H1 order growth at 13.72% [1] - The positive order and funding indicators suggest an optimistic outlook for the acceleration of physical work volume in the near future [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Province is undergoing a critical phase of industrial transformation and economic restructuring, with Guangfa Bank playing a significant role in supporting these initiatives through comprehensive financial services [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support for Transformation - Guangfa Bank's Taiyuan Branch focuses on supporting the transformation of key state-owned enterprises in Shanxi, with over 5 billion yuan in corporate loans issued in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year increase [2]. - The branch has underwritten over 7.2 billion yuan in local government bonds, contributing to regional high-quality development [2]. - Manufacturing loans increased by 36.3% year-to-date, with medium to long-term loans growing by 32.7%, demonstrating strong support for emerging industries [2]. Group 2: Empowering Diverse Development - The bank actively supports small and micro enterprises through innovative financing solutions, including a 7.5 million yuan loan to a seed industry company using intellectual property as collateral [3]. - Guangfa Bank has implemented a credit loan strategy to assist a foreign trade company facing long accounts receivable periods, enhancing the company's operational capacity [3]. Group 3: Enhancing Social Governance - The bank has facilitated the digital transformation of social security and medical insurance in Shanxi, improving public access to healthcare services [4]. - An innovative solution for traffic accident relief funds has recovered nearly 30 million yuan, enhancing the operational efficiency of social assistance programs [4]. Group 4: Strengthening Elderly Care Services - Guangfa Bank has launched various loan products for the elderly care industry and established a comprehensive service system to support elderly clients [5]. - The bank has implemented measures to enhance financial literacy among the elderly, including the establishment of dedicated service points and the use of smart technology to assist them [5][6]. Group 5: Commitment to Financial Security - The bank prioritizes the protection of customer funds and actively engages in anti-fraud education, particularly targeting the elderly demographic [6]. - Recent initiatives include community outreach to educate seniors on common fraud tactics, demonstrating a proactive approach to safeguarding client interests [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed performance of the US stock market on July 15, with the Nasdaq index reaching a historic high, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices experienced declines. Additionally, Chinese concept stocks saw significant gains, particularly driven by a strategic partnership announcement between Baidu and Uber. Stock Market Performance - On July 15, the US stock market closed with mixed results: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.98% to 44023.29 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.4% to 6243.76 points, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.18% to 20677.80 points, hitting an intraday record high [5][6]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 2.76%, reaching a near three-month high [2][12]. Company Developments - Baidu's stock price increased by over 8% following the announcement of a strategic partnership with Uber, the world's largest mobility service platform [3][15]. - The partnership involves integrating thousands of autonomous vehicles from Baidu's "萝卜快跑" into Uber's global network, aiming to provide reliable autonomous transportation services [15][16]. Sector Performance - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia increasing over 4%, Microsoft up by 0.56%, and Amazon by 0.29%. However, Meta and Tesla both fell by over 1% [6]. - Bank stocks generally declined, with Wells Fargo dropping over 5% and Bank of America down by more than 2% [7]. - Energy stocks mostly fell, with Occidental Petroleum down over 5% and Schlumberger down more than 3% [8]. - Airline stocks also saw declines, with Delta Air Lines down over 4% [9]. - Semiconductor stocks experienced gains, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 1.27% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to see significant dividend distributions, with a total of 740 billion yuan distributed among nine constituent stocks of the CSI Dividend Index this week, driven by supportive policies for high-dividend assets [1][23]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution - The total dividend distribution for the CSI Dividend Index in 2024 reached a record high of 9,237 million yuan, with a payout ratio exceeding 36% [21][22]. - Major contributors to this week's dividends include Agricultural Bank with 439 million yuan, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank with 124 million yuan, and China State Construction Engineering with 112 million yuan [23][24]. Group 2: Policy Impact on Insurance Capital - A recent notification from authorities aims to guide insurance funds towards long-term stable investments by extending the performance evaluation period to five years, which is expected to release more capital into the market [8][21]. - According to Guosen Securities, this policy change could resolve the mismatch between the nature of insurance funds and performance evaluations, potentially increasing the scale of funds entering the market [8][21]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Insights - As of Q1 2025, the total balance of insurance capital utilization was 34.93 trillion yuan, with 2.8 trillion yuan allocated to stocks, representing 8.4% of the total [2][8]. - If insurance funds increase their stock allocation by 1%, it could correspond to an additional 350 billion yuan entering the market, with a focus on high-quality dividend assets [2][8]. Group 4: Market Performance Metrics - The CSI Dividend Index has a current dividend yield of 5.37%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.67%, highlighting the attractiveness of high-dividend investments [9][10]. - The performance of the CSI Dividend Index over the past decade shows a total return of 91.33% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on July 8, 2025, including the likely range of resistance and support levels for each contract [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On July 7, 2025, A - shares fluctuated downward, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly, while trading volume decreased. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell, and US and European stock markets showed mixed performance [15][16]. - International oil prices rose strongly on July 7, with the US oil and Brent crude oil main contracts posting gains. International precious metal futures closed with mixed results, and London's basic metals closed down across the board [10][11][12]. 2. Futures Contracts Forecast 2.1 Stock Index Futures - On July 8, 2025, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 3927 and 3944 points and support at 3900 and 3879 points [2]. - In July 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures IF, IH, IC, and IM are expected to fluctuate strongly [17]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On July 8, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2509 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 109.18 and 109.25 yuan and support at 109.00 and 108.90 yuan [34]. - The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 is also expected to fluctuate and consolidate on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 121.3 and 121.5 yuan and support at 121.0 and 120.7 yuan [38]. 2.3 Precious Metal Futures - On July 8, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2510 is likely to fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 779.0 and 781.3 yuan/gram, with support at 771.3 and 768.7 yuan/gram [2]. - The silver futures main contract AG2510 is expected to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 8948 and 8994 yuan/kg and support at 8837 and 8814 yuan/kg [3]. 2.4 Base Metal Futures - The copper futures main contract CU2508 is likely to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 79500 and 79800 yuan/ton and support at 79200 and 78900 yuan/ton [3]. - The alumina futures main contract AO2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, with support at 2992 and 2971 yuan/ton and resistance at 3071 and 3084 yuan/ton [3]. - The zinc futures main contract ZN2508 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 21960 and 21850 yuan/ton, with resistance at 22130 and 22160 yuan/ton [3]. 2.5 Industrial Metal Futures - The industrial silicon futures main contract SI2509 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 8210 and 8320 yuan/ton and support at 7900 and 7820 yuan/ton [3]. - The polysilicon futures main contract PS2508 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 37250 and 37810 yuan/ton and support at 36380 and 36050 yuan/ton [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2509 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 64000 and 64500 yuan/ton and support at 63300 and 62800 yuan/ton [4]. 2.6 Building Material Futures - The rebar futures main contract RB2510 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 3041 and 3030 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3065 and 3072 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2510 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 3163 and 3150 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3195 and 3200 yuan/ton [4]. - The iron ore futures main contract I2509 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 724 and 720 yuan/ton, with resistance at 736 and 741 yuan/ton [4]. 2.7 Energy Futures - The crude oil futures main contract SC2508 is likely to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, and attack resistance levels at 515 and 519 yuan/barrel, with support at 505 and 502 yuan/barrel [5]. - The fuel oil futures main contract FU2509 is expected to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, and attack resistance levels at 2987 and 3001 yuan/ton, with support at 2957 and 2947 yuan/ton [7]. 2.8 Chemical Futures - The PTA futures main contract TA509 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 4754 and 4780 yuan/ton and support at 4686 and 4664 yuan/ton [7]. - The PVC futures main contract V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, with support at 4879 and 4858 yuan/ton and resistance at 4907 and 4921 yuan/ton [7]. - The methanol futures main contract MA509 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 2359 and 2336 yuan/ton, with resistance at 2400 and 2413 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Macro - economic and Policy Information - President Xi Jinping inspected Yangquan Valve Co., Ltd. to understand the situation of industrial transformation and upgrading in Shanxi [8]. - The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress launched an enforcement inspection of the Circular Economy Promotion Law [8]. - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves increased, and foreign exchange reserves also rose [8]. - Nine departments issued the 2025 Work Plan for the Action of Promoting Rural Revitalization through the Housekeeping Service Industry [8]. - US President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on multiple countries, which will take effect on August 1 [9]. - Goldman Sachs said the Fed may cut policy rates in September [9]. - The EU is seeking to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US this week [10]. - The Eurozone's July Sentix Investor Confidence Index reached a new high since February 2022, and May's retail sales showed year - on - year growth [10].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down nearly 1%, Nasdaq down 0.92%, and S&P 500 down about 0.8%, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] Company Performance - Japanese and Korean companies listed in the U.S. faced significant stock price drops, with Nissan down over 7%, Toyota down nearly 4%, SK Telecom down over 7%, and LG Display down more than 8%. This decline is attributed to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, with Japan and Korea facing a 25% tariff [3] - Tesla's stock fell 6.79%, influenced by Elon Musk's political activities, which raised investor concerns about his focus shifting away from technology and market growth [3] - In contrast, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight increase of 0.59%, with Bilibili up over 7% and Baidu nearly 4%, while Xpeng Motors fell nearly 5% and Alibaba down over 2%, indicating a selective investment approach within Chinese stocks [3] Currency and Commodity Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.53% to 97.48, as investors sought safety in the dollar amid stock market declines, strengthening against major currencies like the euro and pound [4] - Goldman Sachs suggested that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates as early as September, which could positively impact technology and growth stocks [4] - Oil prices increased despite OPEC+ announcing production increases, with Brent crude rising 1.87% and West Texas Intermediate crude up 1.39%, indicating a tighter supply in the physical market [4] - Gold prices experienced a V-shaped recovery, reflecting investor behavior in response to geopolitical and policy uncertainties [4] Key Factors Influencing the Market - The market volatility is largely driven by "policy" and "expectations," with ongoing concerns about tariff policies, Elon Musk's actions, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction being critical factors to monitor for their potential impact on company fundamentals and industry trends [5]

东南亚可选消费必需消费 Southeast Asia Discretionary Staples 东南亚指数双周报第 1 期：普遍承压，越南回暖 Southeast Asia Index Tracking: Generally Under Pressure, Vietnam Rebounds 胡佳璐 Rebecca Hu 宋琦 Qi Song 刘坤钰 Kunyu Liu 汪立亭 Liting Wang rebecca.jl.hu@htisec.com q.song@htisec.com ky.liu@htisec.com liting.wang@htisec.com [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Jun 2025 风险提示：宏观经济下行风险、地缘政治风险。 [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明 ...

Market Overview and Key Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline last week, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.43% and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling by 2.03%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index decreased by 0.70% [1] - The information technology sector led the gains among Hang Seng's primary industries, while healthcare and energy sectors saw the largest declines [1] - There was a significant increase in passive foreign capital inflows, with a net inflow of $1.64 billion into Chinese stocks from foreign investors, compared to a net inflow of $0.03 billion the previous week [1] - Southbound capital also remained strong, with a net inflow of HKD 16.3 billion [1] Dividend Strategy and Outlook - The dividend yield of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index reached 7.90%, significantly higher than the 5.56% yield of the CSI Dividend Index. The price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.62, and the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 6.79 [2] - Since the beginning of 2021, the total return of the full return index has been 114%, outperforming the Hang Seng full return index by 113% [2] - The low interest rate environment and weak economic recovery in China are favorable for dividend strategies, with state-owned enterprises showing strong willingness and capability for dividend distribution [2] ETF Performance - The Huaan Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (code: 513920) tracks the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index and aims to reflect the performance of high-dividend securities listed in Hong Kong with major shareholders being mainland state-owned enterprises [3] - The ETF is the first in the market to combine attributes of Hong Kong stocks, state-owned enterprises, and dividends [3] - The ETF had a scale of CNY 1.4856 billion and a weekly trading volume of CNY 1.012 billion [4] Top Holdings in the Dividend Index - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index include: - China COSCO Shipping (4.7% weight, 12-month dividend yield of 13.0%) - Orient Overseas International (4.5% weight, 12-month dividend yield of 11.4%) - New China Life Insurance (3.6% weight, 12-month dividend yield of 3.9%) - China National Offshore Oil (2.8% weight, 12-month dividend yield of 7.8%) [5]

Domestic News - The State Council of China has announced the "Regulations on Reporting Tax Information by Internet Platform Enterprises," effective immediately [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with nine other departments, has issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry (2025-2027)," aiming for a 5%-10% increase in gold resources and over 5% growth in gold and silver production by 2027 [1] - A 4.3 magnitude earthquake occurred in Qingcheng District, Qingyuan City, Guangdong Province, with a depth of 10 kilometers; the Guangdong Earthquake Administration has initiated a level IV emergency response, with no reports of casualties or property damage [1] - Sources close to BYD indicate that the company is providing a rebate of 666 yuan per vehicle to dealers, similar to a rebate offered last year [1] - Cambrian has adjusted the maximum repurchase price of its shares to no more than 818.87 yuan per share [1] International News - Trump has called for lower oil prices while encouraging the U.S. Department of Energy to increase drilling efforts [2] - Iran has reported that Israel has again attacked the Fordow nuclear facility, targeting access routes rather than the facility itself [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman has suggested support for a rate cut in July if inflation pressures are controlled [4] - Reports indicate that U.S. military bases in Syria have been attacked [4] - The Wall Street Journal has reported that New York State plans to construct a large nuclear energy facility [4] - Sources indicate that Iran may retaliate against U.S. forces within one to two days [4] - Iran is reportedly seeking a "direct" cost from the U.S., estimating that the conflict could last for two years [4] - An Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson has stated that Israel will attack Iranian military infrastructure in the coming days [4] - The U.S. Embassy in Qatar has advised American citizens to shelter in place until further notice [4]