- The report suggests that the market is currently at a good point for building positions due to sufficient pessimistic expectations indicated by factors such as futures discount and reduced trading volume[1][10][11] - The report highlights that if the annualized discount of the CSI 500 index futures exceeds 15%, buying the CSI 500 index and holding it for more than 12 trading days can lead to average cumulative returns increasing, with a win rate exceeding 50% after 33 trading days and reaching about 60% after 50 trading days[1][11] - The report mentions that the public funds are inclined to adjust their benchmark to the CSI 800, which has higher allocations in pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and computers compared to the previous mainstream benchmark CSI 300, potentially bringing event-driven returns[2][12] - The report constructs a "active capital activity indicator" based on the Dragon and Tiger list data, which has been declining since the end of April, indicating a decrease in risk appetite among active funds, but has recently shown signs of marginal recovery[3][13] - The report monitors the activity of informed traders, noting that the informed trader activity indicator has been hovering near the zero line, suggesting a cautious attitude towards the market[15] - The report calculates the rolling 12-month ROE and net profit growth rate changes for Shenwan first-level industries, with industries like light manufacturing, building materials, and real estate showing significant growth in net profit expectations[18][19] - The report observes that the net inflow of margin trading funds this week is highest in the pharmaceutical and biological industry, with a net inflow of 2.69 billion yuan[20][21] - The report analyzes the performance of BARRA style factors, noting that fundamental-related factors have shown significant positive excess returns, and funds prefer growth over value in the short term[23][24] Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name: Active Capital Activity Indicator** - **Construction Idea**: Based on Dragon and Tiger list data to measure the activity level of active funds - **Construction Process**: The indicator is constructed by tracking the trading activity of active funds listed on the Dragon and Tiger list, with a focus on their buying and selling behavior over time[3][13] - **Evaluation**: Indicates the risk appetite of active funds, useful for understanding market sentiment[3][13] 2. **Model Name: Informed Trader Activity Indicator** - **Construction Idea**: Measures the activity level of informed traders to gauge market sentiment - **Construction Process**: The indicator is constructed by analyzing the trading activity of informed traders, focusing on their buying and selling patterns and their impact on market movements[15] - **Evaluation**: Provides insights into the cautious or optimistic attitudes of informed traders towards the market[15] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name: Futures Discount Factor** - **Construction Idea**: Based on the annualized discount of the CSI 500 index futures - **Construction Process**: The factor is constructed by calculating the annualized discount of the CSI 500 index futures and analyzing its impact on the index's performance over different holding periods[1][11] - **Evaluation**: Historical data shows that a significant discount can indicate a good entry point for building positions[1][11] 2. **Factor Name: Industry ROE and Net Profit Growth Factor** - **Construction Idea**: Based on the rolling 12-month ROE and net profit growth rate changes for Shenwan first-level industries - **Construction Process**: The factor is constructed by calculating the rolling 12-month ROE and net profit growth rate changes for each industry, and identifying industries with significant growth[18][19] - **Evaluation**: Helps identify industries with strong growth potential and positive market expectations[18][19] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Futures Discount Factor** - **Win Rate after 33 Trading Days**: >50%[1][11] - **Win Rate after 50 Trading Days**: ~60%[1][11] 2. **Industry ROE and Net Profit Growth Factor** - **Light Manufacturing Net Profit Growth**: 0.63%[18][19] - **Building Materials Net Profit Growth**: 0.56%[18][19] - **Real Estate Net Profit Growth**: 0.49%[18][19] Style Factor Performance 1. **Turnover**: -0.3%[24] 2. **Financial Leverage**: 0.0%[24] 3. **Earnings Volatility**: 0.3%[24] 4. **Earnings Quality**: 0.2%[24] 5. **Profitability**: 0.3%[24] 6. **Investment Quality**: 0.1%[24] 7. **Long-term Reversal**: 0.1%[24] 8. **EP Value**: -0.1%[24] 9. **BP Value**: 0.0%[24] 10. **Growth**: 0.1%[24] 11. **Momentum**: 0.2%[24] 12. **Non-linear Size**: -0.3%[24] 13. **Size**: -0.5%[24] 14. **Volatility**: 0.2%[24] 15. **Near-term Reversal**: 0.4%[24] 16. **Dividend Yield**: -0.1%[24]

Market Performance - The overall market rebounded last week, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3367.46 points, up 0.76% for the week, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2039.45 points, up 1.38% [1] - In terms of sector performance, the automotive, non-bank financial, and retail indices had the highest gains, while comprehensive finance, computer, and defense industry indices experienced the largest declines [1] Valuation Levels and Weekly Changes - The ChiNext Index had a TTM PE of 30.95 and increased by 1.38% for the week, but decreased by 7.94% over the last quarter and 4% this year [2] - The Shanghai 50 Index had a TTM PE of 10.93, rising by 1.22% weekly, with a quarterly increase of 2.10% and a year-to-date increase of 1% [2] - The CSI 300 Index had a TTM PE of 12.56, with a weekly increase of 1.12%, but a quarterly decrease of 1.27% and a year-to-date decrease of 1% [2] Sector Performance - The automotive index rose by 2.71% last week, while the non-bank financial index increased by 2.67% [3] - The retail index saw a weekly increase of 2.23%, and the transportation index rose by 2.12% [3] - Conversely, the comprehensive finance index fell by 0.79%, and the computer index decreased by 1.40% [3] Major Market Events - Insurance capital is set to play a larger role in supporting the capital market, with the approval of an additional 600 billion yuan for long-term investments [5] - A new model of floating management fee funds has been introduced, which ties management fees to investor returns, promoting better alignment of interests between fund managers and investors [6] - The fund industry is seeing significant reforms, including the establishment of clear guidelines for public funds to act as "active shareholders" in corporate governance [9]

1 风险提示：测算模型失效风险；重仓股补全与实际差异较大风险；基金持仓、久期大幅度偏离的风险。基金相关信息及数据仅作为基金研究 使用，不作为募集材料或者宣传材料；本文涉及所有基金历史业绩均不代表未来表现 2 • 本周（2025/05/12-2025/ 05/16，下同），沪深300上涨1.12%，主动股票及偏股混合基金整体测算股票仓位下降0.10%，至87.66% 。 • 本周主动股票及偏股混合型基金前5大行业：电子（14.99%）、电力设备（9.28%）、医药生物（6.49%）、汽车（6.49%）、机械设备（6.29%）。 • 加仓前3大行业：国防军工(+0.50%）、非银金融(+0.35%）、计算机(+0.07%）；减仓前3大行业：医药生物(-0.20%）、轻工制造(-0.16%）、电子(- 0.11%）。 • 本周中债10年期国开债到期收益率上行5bps，中长期纯债整体测算久期中位数上升0.23，至3.02年，位于近5年的99.70%分位数。近4周平均久期 中位数为2.70年；本周久期分歧度有所上升，测算久期标准差上升0.09，至1.55年。短期纯债久期中位数上升0.01，至0.97年。 • 信用债基久 ...

本周（5月12日至16日），A股市场成交连续5日维持在万亿元规模以上。沪指累计上涨0.76%，深证成指上涨0.52%，创业板指上 涨1.38%，沪深300上涨1.12%。 | | A股主要股指行情表现- | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名标 | 年初至今 (%) | 本周涨跌幅 (%) | | 北证50 | 37.06 | 3.13 | | 中证1000 | 1.85 | -0.23 | | 科创50 | 0.64 | -1.10 | | 上证指数 | 0.47 | 0.76 | | 中证500 | -0.17 | -0.10 | | 沪深300 | -1.16 | 1.12 | | 深证成指 | -2.26 | 0.52 | | 创业板指 | -4.77 | 1.38 | 在31个申万一级行业中，本周有20个上涨。美容护理指数涨幅居首，为3.08%；非银金融、汽车、交通运输等指数紧随其后，周 涨幅均超过2%；跌幅居前的行业有国防军工和计算机，行业指数跌幅均在1%以上。 资金流向方面，本周4个行业获得主力资金净流入，分别为美容护理、医药生物、煤炭和建筑材料，净流入额依次为5.94亿元、 4 ...

2025 年 05 月 13 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250513 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要宽基指数涨少跌多。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.17%， 收报 3374.87 点；深证成指跌 0.13%，收报 10288.08 点；创业板指跌 0.12%， 收报 2062.26 点；科创 50 跌 0.15%，收报 1009.68 点。总体上全天个股涨少 跌多，Wind 数据显示，全市场 1940 只个股上涨，3233 只个股下跌，237 只个 股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 12915 亿元，较上个交易日缩量约 169 亿 元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，银行、美容护理、医药生物、 交通运输和煤炭行业领涨，涨幅分别为 1.52%、1.18%、0.90%、0.72%和 0.62%， 国防军工、计算机、机械设备、电子和通信行业领跌，跌幅分别为 3.07%、0.80%、 0.66%、0.64%和 0.61%。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念 ...

沪指5月8日上涨0.28%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有21个，涨幅居前的行业为通信、国防军工，涨 幅分别为2.60%、2.57%。国防军工行业位居今日涨幅榜第二。跌幅居前的行业为美容护理、有色金 属，跌幅分别为0.96%、0.43%。 国防军工行业资金流出榜 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出1.18亿元，今日有11个行业主力资金净流入，通信行业主力资金 净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨2.60%，全天净流入资金24.23亿元，其次是电力设备行业，日涨幅为 1.62%，净流入资金为16.69亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有20个，基础化工行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金26.63亿元， 其次是计算机行业，净流出资金为11.73亿元，净流出资金较多的还有纺织服饰、农林牧渔、有色金属 等行业。 300045 华力创通 4.58 5.87 2285.50 国防军工行业今日上涨2.57%，全天主力资金净流出2.21亿元，该行业所属的个股共139只，今日上涨的 有125只，涨停的有11只；下跌的有13只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有58 只，其中，净流入资金超5000万元的有11只，净流入资 ...

注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 5.19 | 487.89 | 122.30 | 通易航天 | 29.96 | | 房地产 | 1.43 | 145.80 | 65.74 | 三湘印象 | 10.14 | | 银行 | 1.23 | 172.90 | 2.52 | 西安银行 | 3.48 | | 石油石化 | 1.03 | 53.51 | 5.62 | 润贝航科 | 10.01 | | 非银金融 | 0.96 | 473.39 | 67.83 | 弘业期货 | 10.02 | | 纺织服饰 | 0.89 | 121.53 | 21.77 | 华纺股份 | 10.17 | | 美容护理 | 0.74 | 48.32 | 5.13 | 登康口腔 | 4.99 | | 建筑装饰 | 0.72 | 142.82 | 5.38 | 山水比德 | 12.78 | ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Composite Index rose by 0.34%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Jingjin Electric, which hit the daily limit, and others like Xinxiangwei, China Electric Research, and Weidao Nano showing increases of 12.76%, 11.45%, and 10.78% respectively [1] - The Huaxia Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF (589000) increased by 0.43%, with the latest price reported at 0.93 yuan [1] - The trading volume of the Huaxia Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF reached 1.25 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.38% [1] Group 2 - The Huaxia Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF has achieved a recent scale of 3.693 billion yuan, leading among similar products [2] - Over the past 13 days, the Huaxia Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.361 billion yuan, totaling 2.908 billion yuan in net inflows, averaging 224 million yuan daily [1] - The recent release of 70 demonstration scenarios for public data utilization aims to accelerate the development of data products and services, enhancing market-oriented operations in the data industry [2]

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 趋势的力量 每日看盘 今日A股三大指数向下调整，两市共成交11 4 8 3亿，较前个交易日放量3 6 3亿。其中沪指下跌 1 . 3 3%，收报3 1 6 8 . 5 2点；深成指下跌1 . 8 0%，收报9 7 9 5 . 9 4点；创业板指下跌1 . 7 6%，收报 1 9 7 5 . 3 0点。 昨天最后讲大概率再盘一下向下结果盘一下都没有，直接就选择了方向，虽然我们一直讲休 息、轻仓、观望，但当市场真的走出了很差的走势的时候，并没有因为预测对而有一点点开 心，基本只有浓浓的失望，以及对市场越来越多的怀疑。 盘面上，全天两市5 2 8家上涨，4 6 2 1家下跌，仅仅比1月3日好那么一点点，上海2 6 0家上涨， 深圳2 6 8家上涨，又是一个泥沙俱下的走势。中位数跌幅又2 . 8 0%，微盘股下跌3 . 1 8%，中证 2 0 0 0下跌3 . 0 5%，不得不承认的是，或许你还没感受到反弹，反弹就已经结束了。 板块上，全军覆没，东财的行业板块分类8 6个板块全部下跌，商业百货、文化传媒、通信服 务、光伏设备、家电行业、互联网、计算机等跌幅居前。题材热点上，也只 ...