有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 专题报告 2025-09-26 铜：矿山供应扰动加剧，铜价再次上行 吴坤金 9 月 24 日，自由港公司更新了有关 Grasberg 铜矿泥浆事故的最新信息。初步评估表明，随着 维修完成以及分阶段重启和运营的开始，这些影响可能会导致 2025 年第四季度和 2026 年生产 大幅推迟，有可能在 2027 年恢复到事故前的开工率。结合自由港公司此前的产量指引，2025 年自由港公司铜矿产量预计较 2024 年减少 26 万吨左右，2026 年产量也将明显低于此前增产 14 万吨的预期，变为仅微幅增加。 铜矿端供应扰动加大，叠加宏观氛围不差（黄金、白银等贵金属价格迭创新高）的背景下，铜 价有望延续较强的表现。同时，需要观察价格上涨后需求的变化，只要库存没有大幅增加，铜 价涨势延续的概率就更大。 有色金属研究 | 铜 铜：矿山供应扰动加剧，铜价再次上行 1、自由港更新印尼 Grasberg 铜矿运营信息，下调未来产量指引 9 月 8 日，自由港印尼 Grasberg 铜矿区块崩 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.09%, S&P 500 futures down 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.53% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 1.08%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.36%, France's CAC 40 down 0.68%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.72% [2][3] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil is down 0.43%, trading at $64.71 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down 0.29%, trading at $69.11 per barrel [4] Economic and Regulatory Developments - The risk of a partial US government shutdown is increasing as Democrats and Republicans are at an impasse over funding, which could impact financial regulatory operations and delay key economic data releases [5] - Analysts from Nomura Securities warn that a prolonged shutdown could lead to delays or cancellations of critical economic data, such as monthly employment and inflation reports [5] Corporate News - Bank of America defends the high valuations of US stocks, suggesting they reflect a "new normal" rather than a bubble, citing that 19 out of 20 internal indicators show the S&P 500 is at statistically high levels [6] - Accenture reported Q4 revenue of $17.6 billion, exceeding expectations, with a year-over-year revenue growth of 7% to $69.7 billion [9] - Intel is seeking investment from Apple to revitalize its business, as it faces operational challenges [10] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded global copper supply forecasts due to production disruptions at the Grasberg mine, estimating a total loss of 525,000 tons of copper supply [8] Technology and Innovation - Circle is exploring a "reversible" mechanism for stablecoin transactions to prevent fraud while maintaining finality in settlements, which contrasts with the traditional immutability principle of blockchain [12] - Apple is urging the EU to repeal the Digital Markets Act, claiming it poses privacy risks and could stifle innovation [13]

1. 需求端： 在这种供需格局下，铜价近年来多次走出强势行情。此次事故无异于在本就紧张的市场中"雪上加霜"。 近日，全球第二大铜矿传出事故消息，导致生产受阻。作为国际铜供给的重要来源，该事件立刻引发市场高度关注。当前全球铜供应本已紧张，此次突发情 况无疑使供需矛盾进一步加剧，也为大宗商品市场带来新的不确定性。 一、事故事件概况 据外媒报道，位于南美的全球第二大铜矿近日发生生产事故，涉及关键生产设施，导致部分产能停滞。虽然具体恢复时间尚未明确，但市场普遍担忧，这将 对全球铜供应造成显著冲击。 该矿山是全球主要的铜精矿供应地之一，年产量占全球铜供应比例接近5%。在全球矿产集中度较高的背景下，这样的大型矿山一旦停产或减产，往往会迅 速波及全球产业链。 二、铜市场本就供需紧张 近年来，铜市场供需格局一直偏紧： 1. 供给端： 全球新能源车、储能、风光发电等"绿色转型"产业对铜需求持续走高； 中国作为全球最大铜消费国，电网投资与新能源产业扩张，对铜材拉动显著。 2. 事故使得其他主要矿企获得相对更高的议价能力。短期内，未受事故影响的矿山或将加大出口。 3. 冶炼环节 4. 由于精矿供应可能收缩，冶炼企业面临原料紧张，现 ...

Market Overview - On September 25, the Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.13% and the Hang Seng Technology Index up 0.89% [1][2] - The total market turnover was HKD 314.9 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 11.046 billion from southbound funds [1] Sector Performance - The internet technology sector saw more gainers than losers, with notable increases in stocks such as Xiaomi Group (+4.48%), JD Group (+3.46%), Bilibili (+2.33%), and Baidu (+2.33%) [2] - The lithium battery sector performed strongly, led by CATL, which rose by 5.14% [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector also experienced a significant increase, with Luoyang Molybdenum rising by 11.73% [5][7] Company Highlights - CATL is set to launch a new 8-series high-nickel battery next year, which will be used in leading new energy vehicles, further solidifying its position in the power battery and energy storage sectors [3] - Xiaomi Group's stock surged by 4.48%, with a trading volume of HKD 19.308 billion, as the company plans to optimize vehicle delivery cycles, potentially reducing the time from order to delivery by up to two months [8][10] Analyst Insights - Analyst reports indicate that the recent supply disruption at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine could lead to a loss of 500,000 tons of copper supply over the next 12 to 15 months, which is expected to drive copper prices higher [7] - At the 2025 Fortune Global 500 Summit, an investment manager stated that it is too early to declare a bubble in technology stocks, citing improving cash flows and earnings growth among major U.S. tech companies [11]

Core Viewpoint - On September 25, a "black swan" event led to a collective rise in the non-ferrous metal sector, with Luoyang Molybdenum Co. experiencing an increase of 11.73% [2][7]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.13% and the Hang Seng Technology Index up by 0.89%. The total market turnover was HKD 314.9 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 11.046 billion from southbound funds [2][3]. - Notable stock performances included Xiaomi Group, which rose by 4.48%, and JD Group, which increased by 3.46%. The lithium battery sector also saw significant gains, with CATL rising by 5.14% [3][5]. Luoyang Molybdenum Co. - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. saw a substantial increase of 11.73% on September 25, driven by positive market sentiment in the non-ferrous metal sector [7]. CATL Developments - CATL's stock rose by 5.14% following reports of its upcoming launch of a new 8-series high-nickel battery, which will be used in leading new energy vehicles. This solidifies CATL's leading position in both power and energy storage battery sectors [5]. Xiaomi Group Updates - Xiaomi Group's stock increased by 4.48%, with a trading volume of HKD 19.308 billion. The company is optimizing its vehicle delivery cycle, significantly reducing the time from order to delivery, with some models potentially being delivered up to two months earlier than originally scheduled [11][13]. Analyst Insights - Analyst Hong Hao stated that it is premature to declare a bubble in technology stocks, citing improving cash flows and earnings growth among major U.S. tech companies. He noted that some Chinese tech firms are making progress despite facing technological constraints [16].

Market Overview - On September 25, the A-share market experienced a morning rally, with the ChiNext Index reaching a three-year high. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.22%. The total trading volume exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The gaming, AI applications, and controllable nuclear fusion sectors saw significant gains, while the port shipping, precious metals, and tourism sectors faced declines [1] Company Highlights - CATL's stock price surpassed 400 yuan, with a market capitalization exceeding 1.83 trillion yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai and China Construction Bank, making it the third-largest in A-shares [4] - Chery Automobile successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a market capitalization approaching 200 billion HKD after its stock price rose by 8.55% on the first day of trading [6][7] Technology Sector - The technology sector continued to strengthen, with the STAR Market Index rising by 1.8%. Notable stocks included Pingming Technology and Shangwei New Materials, which hit the daily limit [8] - Alibaba Cloud and NVIDIA announced a collaboration in the Physical AI field, which is expected to enhance the development cycle for applications like embodied intelligence and assisted driving [8] Copper Market - A landslide incident at an Indonesian copper mine led to a significant increase in copper prices, with LME copper rising by 3.27% to reach 10,320 USD/ton, the highest level since June 2024 [10] - The incident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine is expected to reduce copper production by 35% by 2026, raising concerns about supply chain disruptions [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a morning rally on September 25, with the ChiNext Index reaching a three-year high, closing with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.22% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as gaming, AI applications, and controllable nuclear fusion saw significant gains, while port shipping, precious metals, and tourism sectors faced declines [2] - The technology sector continued to strengthen, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by 1.8% [8] Notable Company Developments - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) saw its stock price exceed 400 yuan, with a total market capitalization surpassing 1.83 trillion yuan, overtaking Kweichow Moutai and China Construction Bank [4][6] - Chery Automobile successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a market capitalization approaching 200 billion Hong Kong dollars, and its stock price rose by 8.55% on the first day of trading [5] Commodity Insights - A significant copper price increase was noted due to a landslide incident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has halted production and raised supply chain concerns [10] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price rose by 3.27%, reaching 10,320 USD per ton, the highest level since June 2024 [10] Robotics and AI Developments - The robotics sector is experiencing a surge in market sentiment, driven by Tesla's announcements regarding its humanoid robot and significant stock purchases by Elon Musk [8][9] - The collaboration between Alibaba Cloud and NVIDIA in the Physical AI domain is expected to enhance the development cycle for applications in embodied intelligence and autonomous driving [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows positive momentum with significant gains in the internet e-commerce and gaming sectors, while other sectors like precious metals and port shipping are underperforming [3][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.22% [3][5]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 134.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4][8]. - Over 3,200 stocks in the market experienced declines, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [4]. Sector Highlights - The gaming and internet e-commerce sectors led the gains, with notable performances from companies like Ningde Times, which saw its stock price rise over 5% in A-shares and over 4% in Hong Kong shares [5][6]. - The consumer electronics sector also showed strength, with companies like Huaqin Technology hitting their upper limit and reaching historical highs [5][6]. - The AI application sector experienced significant activity, with stocks like Tianxiexiu and Yiwang Yichuang seeing substantial increases [11]. Notable Company Developments - Alibaba announced plans to invest heavily in AI infrastructure, with a commitment of 380 billion yuan, which is expected to drive growth in related sectors [6][12]. - Chery Automobile made its debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, opening with an increase of over 11% [15][17]. Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 483.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, indicating ongoing liquidity management in the market [17]. - The RMB to USD exchange rate was reported at 7.1118, reflecting a depreciation of 41 basis points [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in the U.S. copper mining sector, with companies like Ero Copper, Southern Copper, Taseko Mines, and Hudbay Minerals experiencing notable stock price increases [1] - The international copper futures contract saw an increase of over 2%, currently priced at 72,480.00 yuan per ton [1] - UBS has revised its copper price forecasts upward for the next two years, increasing the projections by 3% to $4.37 per pound for 2024 and $4.80 per pound for 2025 [1] Group 2 - The rise in copper prices is attributed to limited supply growth, pressure on refined output, and a recovery in traditional demand dynamics [1] - The fundamental outlook for copper in 2026 and 2027 is expected to continue supporting prices due to these factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's recent report on Vale (VALE.US) highlights discussions with CFO Marcelo Bacci regarding shareholder returns, railway operations, iron ore product flexibility, copper business growth strategies, and challenges in the nickel segment [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Strategies and Shareholder Returns - The company may distribute a special dividend if net debt falls below $15 billion, with expectations for this to occur by December 2025 if iron ore prices remain high and operations are stable [2][3]. - Management is optimistic about the Brazilian railway concession, despite previous unsuccessful negotiations with the government, and is focused on maintaining control over railway assets until 2057 [2][3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Product Strategy - The iron ore market is expected to tighten by 2026, with prices projected to remain above $90 per ton, prompting Vale to invest in a flexible product portfolio with an annual capacity of 360 million tons [2][3]. - The company plans to focus on supplying high-silica iron ore to the Chinese market and introducing new mid-grade products, which could generate additional revenue [3]. Group 3: Copper and Nickel Business Developments - The copper business aims to increase production to 700,000 tons per year, primarily relying on internal resources rather than acquisitions, with the Manara project aligning with this growth strategy [3]. - Although the nickel segment has seen cost reductions, it has not yet reached breakeven, and there are no plans for expansion in Canada, with a preference for developing multi-metal mines instead [3].