1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The high copper price is driven by supply - inventory imbalance and macro factors. Despite concerns about tight supply at the mine end, high prices suppress terminal demand. The price is expected to have limited downside but may experience short - term volatility [1]. Zinc - As domestic zinc mines enter the production - reduction season, the supply of zinc ingots may tighten. Refined zinc exports boost the domestic price, and the short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price [5]. Nickel - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - driven force is limited. The fundamental pressure leads to a weakening of the nickel price, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [6]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a game of weak supply and demand. Although the macro - expectation improves slightly and there is cost support, the off - season demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate and adjust [9]. Tin - The tin market has strong fundamentals and positive market sentiment. It is expected that the tin price will maintain a strong trend this year [11]. Aluminum - The alumina market has a structural surplus, and the price is under pressure. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain in a high - level shock pattern [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has high costs and weakening demand. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range [13]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to remain weakly balanced. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the possibility of rising or falling depending on production changes [15]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has weak demand and oversupply. The price may be strong under the influence of production - reduction news, and the futures price may remain high - level volatile [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market maintains a situation of strong supply and demand. The price may fluctuate due to news interference, and the short - term trend is expected to be strongly volatile [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.00% to 93222 yuan/ton, and the premium changed from 5 to - 20 yuan/ton. The price of other copper products also showed different degrees of increase [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 spread decreasing by 30 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In November, the electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons, and the import volume in October decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 2.55% to 23700 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 320.15 yuan/ton to - 4588 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 spread increasing by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons, and the import volume in October decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons [5]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.55% to 118200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 1 to - 186 dollars/ton [6]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 40 to - 150 yuan/ton [6]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% to 33345 tons, and the import volume decreased by 65.66% to 9741 tons [6]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless steel remained unchanged at 12800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 13.83% to 405 yuan/ton [9]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 5 to - 120 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 3.09% to 329900 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 200% to - 50 yuan/ton [11]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 spread increasing by 1610 to - 280 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the tin ore import increased by 33.49% to 11632 tons, and the SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16090 tons [11]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.73% to 22050 yuan/ton, and the alumina price in different regions decreased [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the AL 2512 - 2601 spread remaining unchanged at - 35 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In November, the alumina production decreased by 4.44% to 743.94 million tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% to 363.66 million tons [12]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.69% to 21750 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum changed [13]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 15 to - 40 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons, and the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 7.06% to 7.64 million tons [13]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East - China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased [15]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 30 to - 50 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [15]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52300 yuan/kg, and the basis decreased by 41.13% to - 4890 yuan [16]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the main contract price increasing by 2.56% to 57190 yuan [16]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons, and the import volume increased by 11.96% to 0.14 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 1.07% to 94500 yuan/ton, and the lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 0.83% to 1220 dollars/ton [17]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 200 to - 380 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35% to 95350 tons, and the demand increased by 5.11% to 133451 tons [17].

2 基本面分析 研究所 弱势震荡，成本定价 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年12月14日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - On December 4, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. With a weak nickel fundamental and inventory pressure, along with the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, after the price recovered from a low level, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1][2]. - On December 4, the main stainless - steel contract also fluctuated within a range. Given the loose fundamentals and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Futures Market - On December 4, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts generally decreased. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 117,600 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 103,322 lots, a decrease of 9,126 lots, and the open interest of the active contract decreased by 577 lots [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures increased, with the inventory on December 4 being 32,595 tons, an increase of 2,501 tons from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 400 yuan compared to the previous day. The basis (spot - to - futures) widened, with the basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price minus the closing price of the active nickel futures contract being 2,130 yuan on December 4 [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased last week, and port inventories decreased. The loss of nickel - iron plants deepened, with domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production schedules decreasing in December. The domestic electrolytic nickel production schedule increased in December, and the loss of electrolytic nickel imports narrowed [2]. - Demand side: Ternary material production decreased; stainless - steel plant production schedules decreased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [2]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, LME, and social inventory increased, while the bonded - area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless - Steel Market Futures Market - On December 4, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 84,742 lots, an increase of 4,381 lots, and the open interest decreased by 871 lots [2]. - The inventory of stainless - steel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, with the inventory on December 4 being 62,157 tons, a decrease of 180 tons from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - Spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. For example, the basis of the average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) minus the active contract price was 775 yuan on December 4 [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Stainless - steel production decreased in December, and the production schedule of the 300 - series stainless - steel decreased [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - The price of high - grade nickel pig iron decreased, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [2]. Industry News - After the EU officially issued the new battery passport policy, the Indonesian nickel industry has once again become the focus. The full implementation of the policy is scheduled for February 2027. The preparation levels of Indonesian nickel producers vary, and the real challenge lies with producers in the early stage of development [2].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend, with the Shanghai nickel main contract hitting a nearly five-year low of 113,980 yuan/ton on November 21, driven by revised Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, accelerated accumulation of refined nickel inventories, and ongoing supply-demand imbalances [1] Demand Structure - In the nickel industry demand structure from January to October 2025, stainless steel, power batteries, alloys, and electroplating accounted for 78.2%, 13.4%, 5.6%, and 1.6% of nickel consumption, respectively, totaling 98.6% [1] - The demand for stainless steel is significantly affected by the real estate sector, which has not shown substantial improvement, leading to continued pressure on stainless steel demand [1] - In the power battery sector, the market share of ternary materials has decreased to around 20% due to the cost advantages of lithium iron phosphate materials, while solid-state batteries are expected to become a key growth driver for nickel demand, although large-scale commercialization is not anticipated until 2030 [1] Alloy and Electroplating Demand - In the alloy sector, nickel consumption is projected to reach approximately 156,000 metal tons in 2025, an increase of 13,000 metal tons from 2024, but the overall contribution to total nickel demand remains limited [2] - Nickel demand in the electroplating sector has remained stable, averaging between 50,000 to 60,000 metal tons annually over the past five years [2] Supply and Production Trends - The supply of nickel intermediate products (MHP) has been growing significantly faster than high-grade nickel due to economic advantages, better raw material adaptability, and superior environmental compatibility [3] - As of October 2025, the profit margins for producing nickel sulfate and refined nickel using MHP are significantly higher than those for high-grade nickel, indicating a shift in production profitability [3] Inventory and Market Outlook - Domestic refined nickel supply is expected to continue increasing in 2025, with accelerated accumulation of inventories observed since the third quarter of this year [5] - Major refined nickel producers, particularly those with their own nickel mines or integrated projects in Indonesia, are likely to maintain profitability and market share despite challenges faced by smaller firms [5] - The overall supply-demand landscape for 2026 suggests that refined nickel demand will not see significant growth, while the continued release of low-cost MHP capacity will keep supply high, leading to a projected nickel price range of 100,000 to 125,000 yuan/ton [5]

1. Investment Ratings The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and consider buying on dips. Monitor macro - level changes and supply - side dynamics [1]. Alumina - The oversupply situation of alumina continues to suppress prices. Expect prices to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with the main contract's reference operating range shifting down to 2600 - 2800 yuan/ton. Observe actual production cuts and inventory inflection points [3]. Aluminum - Expect short - term aluminum prices to remain strong, with the main SHFE aluminum contract's reference operating range at 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Focus on the latest Fed monetary policy and domestic inventory drawdown sustainability [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost and demand. Short - term prices are expected to be relatively strong, with the main contract's reference operating range at 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply improvement and inventory drawdown [5]. Polysilicon - In December, there is an oversupply situation, and each link has inventory build - up expectations. The market is in a state of a strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and a weak spot market with oversupply. Adopt a wait - and - see trading strategy [7]. Industrial Silicon - Maintain the previous expectation of low - level oscillations in industrial silicon prices, with the main price fluctuation range at 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to end - of - year export demand decline and the impact of warehouse receipts flowing into the spot market [8]. Zinc - In the short term, the downward space of zinc prices is limited, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to oscillate. Monitor the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory, with the main contract's reference range at 22200 - 23000 [11]. Copper - The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price's bottom center. Focus on overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts, with the main contract's support at 88500 - 89500 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Expect short - term wide - range oscillations in the lithium carbonate market, with the main contract's reference range at 92000 - 95000. Pay attention to the sustainability of year - end demand and the progress of large - scale plant复产 [16]. Nickel - Expect short - term range - bound oscillations in nickel prices, with the main contract's reference range at 116000 - 120000. Monitor macro - level expectation changes and Indonesian industrial policy news [19]. Stainless Steel - Expect short - term weak oscillations in stainless steel prices, with the main contract's reference operating range at 12300 - 12700. Focus on steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [20]. 3. Summary by Directory Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price rose 1.51% to 309300 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread fell 38.67% to 92 dollars/ton; import loss decreased 13.91% to - 16070.31 yuan/ton; some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, tin ore imports increased 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased 58.55%, and exports decreased 15.33%. Inventory increased, with SHEF inventory rising 2.09% and social inventory rising 2.23% [1]. Market Analysis - Macro: US ADP data decline strengthens Fed rate - cut expectations. Supply: Tin ore supply is tight, with limited improvement expected this year. Demand: Tin solder enterprises in South China are more resilient than those in East China [1]. Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.41% to 21800 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased 77.1 yuan/ton to - 1929 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads remained unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, alumina production decreased 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.82%, and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.50%. Some开工 rates increased slightly, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.77% [3]. Market Analysis - Supply: Some enterprises cut production, but overall supply is still abundant, and imports increase supply pressure. Inventory: Domestic visible inventory is accumulating. Cost: Cost support may decline. Price: Expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.41% to 21800 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased 77.1 yuan/ton to - 1929 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads remained unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.82%, and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.50%. Some开工 rates increased slightly, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.77% [3]. Market Analysis - Macro: Fed rate - cut expectations boost market sentiment, but Japanese central bank's potential rate hike increases volatility. Domestic: Lower aluminum prices stimulate downstream procurement, and inventory decreases [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged; some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased. Month - to - month spreads changed [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased 5.74%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased 5.84%. Some开工 rates increased, and recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased 1.59% [5]. Market Analysis - Supply: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and cost support is strong. Demand: Automobile parts orders support demand. Price: Short - term prices are expected to be strong [5]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - Polysilicon spot prices stabilized, and futures prices oscillated higher. The main contract rose 1115 yuan/ton to 57430 yuan/ton. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [7]. Fundamental Data - Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production decreased. Polysilicon imports increased, and exports decreased. Inventory increased, with polysilicon inventory rising 3.69% and silicon wafer inventory rising 4.17% [7]. Market Analysis - The market is in a state of a strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and a weak spot market with oversupply. In December, downstream production is expected to decline significantly, and polysilicon may face inventory build - up pressure [7]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - East China oxygen - enriched SI5530 industrial silicon spot price fell 0.52% to 9500 yuan/ton; futures price oscillated lower. Some month - to - month spreads changed [8]. Fundamental Data - In November, national industrial silicon production decreased 11.17%, and some regional production and开工 rates decreased. Organic silicon DMC production increased 3.82%, and industrial silicon exports decreased 35.82%. Inventory increased slightly [8]. Market Analysis - Supply: Production is expected to decline slightly, but demand may also decrease. Inventory: Warehouse receipts will flow into the spot market, increasing supply pressure. Price: Expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.22% to 22790 yuan/ton; import loss decreased 326.75 yuan/ton to - 5143 yuan/ton; some month - to - month spreads changed [11]. Fundamental Data - In November, refined zinc production decreased 3.56%. In October, imports decreased 16.94%, and exports increased 243.79%. Some开工 rates were stable, and LME inventory increased 1.87% [11]. Market Analysis - Supply: TC decline compresses smelting profits, and export space opens, reducing supply pressure. Demand: Some improvement in demand structure, but terminal demand is stable. Price: Expected to oscillate [11]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 0.36% to 88980 yuan/ton; some spreads changed. Arbitrage loss decreased 28.61 yuan/ton to - 1433 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, electrolytic copper production increased 1.05%. In October, imports decreased 15.61%. Some开工 rates decreased, and domestic social inventory decreased 11.96% [13]. Market Analysis - Macro: Rate - cut expectations boost copper prices. Supply: Concerns about supply shortages persist, and CSPT may cut production. Demand: High copper prices still see spot premiums and stable processing - end开工 rates [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price fell 0.05% to 94350 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads changed [16]. Fundamental Data - In November, lithium carbonate production increased 3.35%, demand increased 5.11%, imports increased 21.86%, and exports increased 63.05%. Inventory decreased, with total inventory decreasing 23.36% [16]. Market Analysis - Price: The futures market fell. Supply: A new lithium mine project approval stirs the market. Demand: Demand is optimistic, but concerns remain about the sustainability of year - end demand [16]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 0.08% to 120000 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread rose 3.53% to - 195 dollars/ton; import loss decreased 39.64% to - 874 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - Chinese refined nickel production decreased 9.38%, and imports decreased 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased 2.48%, and LME inventory decreased 0.51% [19]. Market Analysis - Macro: Market expects Fed rate hike, and Sino - US call eases sentiment. Supply: Refined nickel spot transactions are average, and nickel ore prices are under pressure. Demand: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel sulfate demand is expanding [19]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B stainless steel prices remained unchanged; some month - to - month spreads changed [20]. Fundamental Data - Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased 0.72%, and Indonesian production increased 0.36%. Imports increased 3.18%, and exports decreased 14.43%. 300 - series social inventory increased 1.92% [20]. Market Analysis - Macro: Fed rate - hike expectations and Chinese fiscal policies. Supply: Nickel - iron production increases, and supply pressure remains. Demand: It is the off - season, and demand is weak. Price: Expected to oscillate weakly [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and consider adding long positions on price pullbacks. Monitor macro and supply - side changes [1]. Aluminum Oxide The oversupply situation continues to suppress prices, which are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The reference range for the main contract is lowered to 2600 - 2800 yuan/ton. Observe actual production cuts and inventory inflection points [3]. Aluminum Short - term aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, with the reference range for the SHFE main contract this week being 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Focus on the latest Fed monetary policy and domestic inventory depletion sustainability [3]. Aluminum Alloy The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost and demand. Short - term prices are expected to remain firm, with the main contract reference range at 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply improvement and inventory depletion [5]. Polysilicon In December, there is an oversupply situation, and each link is expected to accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. Industrial Silicon The industrial silicon market in December remains in a weak supply - demand situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range at 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [8]. Zinc The zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The supply pressure is relieved, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract reference range is 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract support range is 88500 - 89500 yuan/ton. Monitor overseas interest rate cut expectations and smelting production cuts [13]. Lithium Carbonate The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range at 92000 - 95000 yuan/ton [16]. Nickel The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range at 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Monitor macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [19]. Stainless Steel The short - term disk is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range at 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Monitor steel mills' production cut implementation and ferro - nickel prices [20]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices rose 1.51%, LME 0 - 3 spread dropped 38.67%. Import loss decreased 13.91%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and average开工率 increased, while refined tin imports, exports, and SMM solder开工率 decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF, social, and LME inventories increased, while SHEF warehouse receipts decreased slightly [1]. Aluminum Oxide - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum prices rose 0.41%, and most alumina prices remained unchanged. Aluminum import loss decreased, and monthly spreads were stable [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production decreased, while alumina开工率 and some downstream开工率 increased [3]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories decreased, while electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM ADC12 alloy prices were stable, and some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased, while unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports decreased and exports increased [5]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased slightly, and some daily inventories changed [5]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, futures prices rose, and silicon wafer and component prices fell. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In November and December, polysilicon and silicon wafer production decreased, imports and exports changed, and demand decreased [7]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon spot prices fell slightly, and futures prices declined. Some monthly spreads changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, national industrial silicon production decreased, and some regional production and开工率 changed. Organic silicon production increased [8]. - **Inventory**: Some regional factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly [8]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices rose slightly, and import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads changed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased, imports decreased, and exports increased. Downstream开工率 was relatively stable [11]. - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [11]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper prices rose, and some spreads changed. Import loss increased slightly [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased, and imports decreased. Some processing开工率 decreased [13]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social and SHFE inventories decreased, while bonded and LME inventories increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly, and some monthly spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, imports and exports increased, and开工率 increased [16]. - **Inventory**: Lithium carbonate total, downstream, and smelter inventories decreased [16]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel prices rose slightly, and some spreads and costs changed [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, and some inventories increased or decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME and bonded area inventories decreased [19]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B stainless steel prices were stable, and some monthly spreads changed [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese and Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel production changed, imports increased, and exports decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social and cold - rolled social inventories increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased slightly [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For tin, considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - level changes and supply - side recovery [2]. - For industrial silicon, expect prices to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. The market will maintain weak supply and demand in December [4]. - For polysilicon, the market is expected to be oversupplied in December with inventory accumulation expected in each link. Futures should be put on hold for now, and out - of - the - money put options can be bought on the options side when volatility is low [5]. - For zinc, the short - term price has limited downside space, but the fundamentals also provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to oscillate. Pay attention to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory [7]. - For copper, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [8]. - For nickel, the overall driving force is still limited. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Pay attention to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [11]. - For stainless steel, the short - term low - valuation situation may lead to some price recovery, but the driving force is limited. Prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating. Pay attention to steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [14]. - For aluminum, alumina prices are expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price has support, but the unilateral driving force is weakened. The market is expected to oscillate widely around 95,000 yuan [16]. - For aluminum alloy, the short - term price trend of the casting aluminum alloy market is still strong. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the sustainability of inventory reduction [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 2.73% to 308,200 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. Import loss widened by 15.76% to - 19,428.35 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33%. SHEF and social inventories increased slightly [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized, and the futures price fluctuated. The basis of the main contract decreased. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in November, and the national operating rate increased by 9.98%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, while polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. Social inventory increased slightly [4]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon stabilized, and the futures price rose. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon production decreased, imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99%. Inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.85% to 22,560 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased. Import loss decreased, and some monthly spreads changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. In October, imports decreased by 16.94% and exports increased by 243.79%. LME inventory increased, and domestic social inventory decreased [7]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 2.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 18.01%, and the import loss widened [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%. In October, imports decreased by 15.61%. Domestic social inventory decreased, and some operating rates decreased [8]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased slightly, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 1.05%. The futures import loss widened by 17.58% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% in November, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of stainless steel remained stable, and the basis decreased. Some monthly spreads changed slightly [14]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% in November, imports increased by 3.18%, and exports decreased by 14.43%. Social inventory increased slightly [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.31%, and the premium decreased. Alumina prices in some regions decreased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%. Some operating rates increased, and domestic social inventory decreased [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.64%, and some monthly spreads decreased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, and total inventory decreased by 23.36% [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.70%, and some scrap - refined price differences changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. Some operating rates decreased, and social inventory decreased slightly [18].

研究所 弱势震荡，反弹乏力 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年11月30日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 ...

| | | 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 续增长，市场按需采购为主，现货升水上涨；海外LME库存亦呈现增长。技术面，持仓持稳价格调整，多 空分歧增加。观点参考：预计短线沪镍回升调整，关注118000阻力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 沪镍产业日报 2025-11-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 116900 | -360 01-02月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -210 | -40 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14845 | -75 主力合 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 近期美联储集体转鸽，美国9月零售数据不及预期，市场对美联储1 2月降息预期再度升温。美国政府结束停摆，后续美元流动性有望 改善。美国总统特朗普11月24日签署行政令，正式启动代号为"创 世使命"的国家级人工智能计划，打开了市场对未来美国铜需求增 长的想象空间。基本面方面，铜管需求和产量旺季不旺，前期铜价 上涨一定程度抑制下游采购需求，但当前下游对高铜价的接受度开 ...