1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, with positive macro - expectations and concerns about supply disruptions, base metals prices rose significantly this week. Consumption has been somewhat suppressed, which may limit the upside potential of prices. One can cautiously consider low - buying and long - holding opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin remain. The supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the prices of these metals are optimistic. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **View**: The increase in LME cancelled warrants indicates that copper prices will fluctuate strongly. - **Information Analysis**: - Codelco is significantly raising the annual premium for refined copper sold to Chinese customers, with premiums of $350/ton or $335/ton above the LME price. [7] - The CSPT has reached a consensus to reduce the capacity utilization of copper ore by over 10% in 2026, and take other measures to improve the supply - demand fundamentals. [7] - In November, SMM's China electrolytic copper production increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month and 9.75% year - on - year, with a cumulative increase of 11.76% from January to November. [7] - On December 4, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had an average premium of 170 yuan/ton over the 2601 contract, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. [8] - As of December 4, SMM's copper inventory in major regions decreased to 158,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous value. [8] - **Main Logic**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut is rising. Copper supply disruptions are increasing, and the CSPT will reduce production in 2026. The cost of scrap copper recycling has increased, leading to reduced production in some smelters. Although demand is weak, the spot is at a premium, and the increase in LME cancelled warrants is boosting prices. [9] - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and supply disruptions continue to increase. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [9] Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, alumina prices in various regions showed different degrees of decline or remained flat. [10] - The freight of Cape - type ships on the Guinea - to - China route has been rising, and the market sentiment and fundamentals provide dual support. [10] - On December 4, the alumina warehouse receipt was 253,320 tons, a net increase of 3,006 tons. [10] - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity has fluctuations, but the supply reduction needs further observation. The domestic inventory is still increasing, and raw material prices are weak. However, as the valuation is in the low - range, price fluctuations may increase. [12] - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand situation is in surplus, but the valuation is low. Alumina prices are expected to remain volatile. [12] Aluminum - **View**: With the repeated macro - sentiment, aluminum prices fluctuate and rebound. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum was 22,020 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the premium was - 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. [13] - On December 4, the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory remained unchanged. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt remained unchanged. [13] - The Eurasian Economic Commission will impose anti - dumping duties on Chinese aluminum foil products, with rates ranging from 17.16% to 20.24%. [13] - An Indonesian aluminum plant will start trial operation in mid - December, planning to reach full - capacity production of 500,000 tons in October 2026 and expand to 1.5 million tons in the long term. Another Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project has started production and will reach full - capacity production of the first - phase 500,000 tons in October 2026. [14] - **Main Logic**: The expectation of a rate cut is rising, and the domestic economic data is weakly stable. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, while the overseas power shortage risk is emerging. Terminal demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing. [14] - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium term, with limited supply growth and resilient demand, the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise. [14] Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Warehouse receipts continue to rise, and the market fluctuates at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum was - 920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. [17] - On December 4, the SHFE registered warehouse receipt was 66,164 tons, a net increase of 1,607 tons. [17] - In October, China's scrap aluminum imports were about 155,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. The main import sources were Thailand, the UK, Japan, and the US. [16] - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has rebounded, but some alloy factories face production reduction risks. Demand is marginally improving, and social and warehouse receipt inventories are rising. [16] - **Outlook**: In the short and medium terms, with strong cost support and stable supply - demand, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [16][18] Zinc - **View**: With the decline of social inventory, zinc prices will rebound in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, the premiums of Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin 0 zinc against the main contract were 70 yuan/ton, - 40 yuan/ton, and - 50 yuan/ton respectively. [19] - As of December 4, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 140,300 tons, a decrease of 7,800 tons from the previous Thursday. [19] - On October 1, 29Metals' mine in Western Australia had a new earthquake, delaying the high - grade zinc ore mining and withdrawing the annual zinc production guidance. [19] - **Main Logic**: The Fed's dovish stance and weak economic data have increased the expectation of a December rate cut. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelting profits are good. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and demand is average. The domestic zinc ingot inventory may stop accumulating, and LME inventory has rebounded. [19] - **Outlook**: In December, zinc production is slightly down month - on - month but high year - on - year. The demand is entering the off - season, but the export window is open, and inventory may decline. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile. [19] Lead - **View**: With the reduction of social inventory, lead prices may continue to rebound. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead was 25 yuan/ton. [20] - On December 4, the average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 17,100 yuan, up 25 yuan, and the lead ingot premium was 25 yuan/ton. [20] - As of December 4, 2025, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 23,600 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from the previous Thursday, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipt was 16,553 tons, a decrease of 76 tons. [20] - Some primary lead smelters are under maintenance, and the supply of deliverable brands is limited. Some downstream enterprises prefer to use lead ingots in social warehouses, leading to a significant reduction in social inventory. However, the smelter's factory inventory has increased, and there is a possibility of inventory transfer for delivery. [20] - **Main Logic**: The spot premium and the price difference between primary and secondary lead are stable, and the futures warehouse receipt is slightly down. The profit of secondary lead smelting has increased slightly, and the weekly lead ingot production has decreased. The demand for electric bicycles is slightly weak, but the demand for automobile batteries has improved, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. [20] - **Outlook**: Due to the maintenance of smelters, lead production is difficult to increase significantly. In December, the demand for lead ingots remains high, and the inventory will remain low. The previous negative factors suppressing lead prices have been digested, and lead prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. [21] Nickel - **View**: With the overall strength of non - ferrous metals, nickel prices fluctuate accordingly. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, the LME nickel inventory was 25.3116 tons, an increase of 126 tons from the previous day, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt was 35,096 tons, an increase of 2,501 tons from the previous day. The global visible inventory is increasing. [23] - In 2026, PT Vale Indonesia will focus on three HPAL projects with a total investment of about $9 billion. The three smelters are expected to be completed successively from the third quarter of 2026. [23] - On November 29, GEM stated that its Qingmeibang nickel resource project is operating normally, and the production plan for December is normal. [24] - On November 27, BC Jindal Group and Hindustan Power won contracts for renewable energy projects. [24] - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation is stable. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The ore supply is relatively loose. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has slightly decreased. The market is in excess supply, and the inventory has accumulated significantly. [24] - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate with non - ferrous metals. In the long - term, the Indonesian nickel ore policy needs further observation. [25] Stainless Steel - **View**: With the slight decline of nickel - iron prices, the stainless - steel market fluctuates. - **Information Analysis**: - The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 62,157 tons, a decrease of 180 tons from the previous day. [26] - On December 4, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 stainless steel against the main contract was 225 yuan/ton. [26] - On December 4, the average price of SMM10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 881 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day. [26] - The Indonesian government is promoting the use of dry - stacking tailings technology for HPAL tailings. [27] - On November 29, GEM stated that its Qingmeibang nickel resource project is operating normally, and the production plan for December is normal. [27] - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium are falling, weakening the cost support for steel prices. After the peak season, stainless - steel production decreased in November, and downstream demand is weak. The social inventory has increased during the off - season, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. [27][28] - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals suppress prices, but considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and ore - end support, stainless - steel prices are expected to remain range - bound. [28] Tin - **View**: With continued supply concerns, tin prices continue to strengthen. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 50 tons to 3,195 tons, the SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 185 tons to 6,576 tons, and the SHFE tin open interest increased by 4,211 lots to 107,697 lots. [28] - On December 4, the average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's 1 tin ingot was 317,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,300 yuan/ton from the previous day. [28] - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is the core concern. The复产 progress of the Wa State's mining area is slow, Indonesian tin exports are restricted, and African tin production is limited. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand for tin is expected to continue to grow due to the global economic situation and the development of related industries. [29] - **Outlook**: With continuous supply disruptions, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [29] Market Index - On December 4, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures showed that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all increased, with increases of 0.11%, 0.20%, 0.41%, and 0.78% respectively. The non - ferrous metals index increased by 1.02% on the day, 2.39% in the past 5 days, 2.50% in the past month, and 10.12% since the beginning of the year. [157][158]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices soared to record highs, with the loss of domestic refined copper spot imports widening. The weakening US labor market and the improvement of the service industry index, along with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in China, are the main influencing factors. The increase in LME and Comex copper inventories, along with the decrease in SHFE copper warehouse receipts, indicate tight LME inventories and structural issues in global visible inventories, which may lead to a continued strong performance in the market [1]. - Aluminum prices showed a mixed trend, with aluminum alloy weakening and aluminum and alumina showing different trends. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and restart rhythms emerged, leading to a significant correction in the market. The decline in aluminum prices has boosted downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand has gradually been realized in the short term. However, as the new energy vehicle purchase tax rush ends and the State Grid order matching concludes, the support for aluminum prices is strong, but it is difficult to sustain the demand surge, and the possibility of reaching a new high this year is low [1][2]. - Nickel prices also showed a mixed trend, with LME nickel rising and Shanghai nickel falling slightly. The inventory situation is complex, with LME nickel inventory decreasing and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increasing. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain is facing challenges, with the raw material support weakening and the stainless - steel inventory increasing. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. It may be advisable to consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - level disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices reached new historical highs. The US labor market showed signs of weakness, with a decrease of 32,000 in the ADP employment number in November 2025, the largest decline since March 2023. However, the US ISM service industry PMI index rose to 52.6 in November, the highest in nine months. Domestically, attention is focused on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. LME copper inventory increased by 350 tons to 162,150 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 2,127 tons to 393,979 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons. The large - scale conversion of LME copper registered warehouse receipts to cancelled warehouse receipts is seen as a sign of impending large - scale提货, indicating tight LME inventories and structural issues in global visible inventories [1]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum alloy trended weakly, with the overnight main contract AD2601 closing at 20,970 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.64%. Aluminum trended strongly, with the overnight AL2601 closing at 22,010 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53%. Alumina trended weakly, with the overnight AO2601 closing at 2,632 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.53%. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and restart rhythms emerged, leading to a correction in the market. The decline in aluminum prices has led to an improvement in downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand has been gradually realized in the short term. However, the support for aluminum prices is strong, but it is difficult to sustain the demand surge, and the possibility of reaching a new high this year is low [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.92% to 14,875 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.02% to 117,590 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 252,990 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 244 tons to 32,595 tons. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain is facing challenges, with the raw material support weakening and the stainless - steel inventory increasing. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. It may be advisable to consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - level disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 3, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 88,925 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan from the previous day. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged at 79,800 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged at 161,800 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons, and the total social inventory (including bonded areas) decreased by 0.4 million tons to 26.2 million tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: On December 3, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21,790 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai quotation was 21,690 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 535,900 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 66,833 tons, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 59.6 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: On December 3, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 122,400 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. LME nickel inventory remained unchanged at 253,074 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 244 tons to 32,595 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel increased by 3,090 tons to 55,349 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: On December 3, 2025, the main settlement price was 22,740 yuan/ton, up 0.2% from the previous day. LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 52,375 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons to 13.76 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: On December 3, 2025, the main settlement price was 309,340 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from the previous day. LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 3,145 tons, and SHFE tin inventory increased by 130 tons to 6,359 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides spot premium charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of spot premiums for these metals [9][12][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: The report provides near - far month spread charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025, showing the historical trends of near - far month spreads for these metals [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: The report provides LME inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of LME inventories for these metals [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The report provides SHFE inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of SHFE inventories for these metals [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: The report provides social inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of social inventories for these items [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: The report provides charts for copper concentrate index, crude copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of smelting - related indicators [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous metal research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research. Both have rich experience in tracking the new energy industry chain and providing in - depth reports [49][50].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 张驰宁 投资咨询号：Z0020302 国泰君安期货市场分析师 铜在昨夜创了新高，总结下来主要受以下几点因素影响： 1、ADP数据意外降低——降息预期升温——美元指数下滑； 2、矿产铜供应紧张： 核心矛盾在于加工费（TC）持续处于低位； 3、废铜供应偏紧； 4、长期驱动稳固：电网投资、新能源（光伏、风电）及算力中心等新兴领域对铜的消费驱动强劲。且 新兴行业对价格容忍度高，特别是在算力中心等投资中，原材料（铜）成本占比仅约1-2%，对铜价上 涨的敏感度低； 5、LME仓单紧张 ．．．．．． 全球铝供应增长仍然受限，市场长期处于"紧平衡"状态。关键风险点在于印尼产能，印尼凭借便宜的煤 电和铝土矿，正在规划相当一部分的低成本电解铝产能，但当前有确定性电力供应的产能投产规模或仍 相对可控，印尼新增供应提速仍存疑； 2、需求有想象空间： 在本轮冲高前，沪铜技术面已显现出企稳转强的积极信号。沪铜主力Cu2601合约在周一率先实现对前 期高点的实体上破，随后连续数个交易日稳立于该关键位置之上进行横盘整理，此举符合技术分析 中"真突破"成功率较高的特征。昨夜盘的 ...

12月4日早盘，有色龙头ETF（159876）场内价格上涨2%冲击历史高点，资金实时净申购240万份，此 前已连续3日净流入。成份股方面，锡业股份、西部矿业、华锡有色等多股涨超5%。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 · | | | | | F9 盘前盘用 露加 九转 面线 工具 @ (2 ) | | | | | | 有色龙头ETF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.919/ | | | | 159876[南色龙头ETF] 09:40 6 0.919 图表 0.018(2.00%) 编龄 0.914 | | 2 0000 500 | | 0.979 +0.018 +2.00% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | SZSE CNY 9:40:24 交易中 查看(2全国 | | | | | 7 . . + | | and | | | | | | 1,0096 | 净值是设 | | 华富中经有色金属ETF | 今年 | 77.44% 120日 ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: December 4, 2025 - **Reporting Team**: Research Center Non - ferrous Metals Team 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view from CESCO copper meetings is that buying on dips is the main strategy for copper, with an expected upward shift in the copper price center to the range of $10,500 - $11,300. For aluminum, the short - term trend may be volatile, with a shift from a supply - demand balance in early 2026 to a tighter situation later. Zinc prices are expected to have a limited decline in the short - term, and different trading strategies are recommended. Nickel and stainless steel fundamentals are weak, with opportunities for short - selling on rallies. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, and caution is advised. Tin prices have an upward - moving center, and long - position strategies near the cost line are suggested. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term. Lithium carbonate prices are in a volatile state, and the upward potential depends on inventory reduction and other factors [1][2][3][5][8][9]. 3. Summary of Each Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 35, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 340, and the LME inventory increased by 350 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price center is expected to move up to the $10,500 - $11,300 range. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased domestic grid demand in 2026, global computing center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. The bearish factor to watch is the potential outflow of North American inventory if US tariffs are removed [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, Shanghai aluminum ingot prices increased by 90, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2500. The aluminum ingot inventory decreased significantly, and downstream products also continued to reduce inventory [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the zinc price fluctuated, the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium increased to $224, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic zinc fundamentals are currently poor, but there will be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 contracts [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the price of Shanghai nickel increased by 350, and the domestic and overseas inventories continued to increase [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals are weak. With continuous disruptions in the Indonesian mining sector and policy support for prices, opportunities for short - selling on rallies should be monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the prices of various stainless - steel products remained unchanged, and the inventory remained at a high level [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamentals are weak. With some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies, opportunities for short - selling on rallies should be monitored [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the lead price decreased, the social inventory decreased slightly to 35,000 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 3800 [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200 next week. Attention should be paid to the increase in warehouse receipts and the price - support situation of waste batteries, and cautious operation is recommended [5]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the center of the tin price increased, the LME inventory increased by 50, and the trading volume increased by 7721 [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the fundamentals are acceptable. It is recommended to hold long positions near the cost line or use tin as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will increase but with limited elasticity and many disturbing factors [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the basis of different grades changed, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 108 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a slightly loose balance, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the prices of SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased slightly, the basis of the main contract increased by 2850, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 660 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking range is expected to maintain at 5,000 - 6,000 tons. The upward potential depends on inventory reduction and the improvement of speculative demand [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are supported by supply - demand factors, while others are affected by cost, inventory, and market sentiment [2][3][4] - For most metals, there are specific price trends and trading suggestions based on their individual fundamentals and market conditions Summary by Metals Copper - On Wednesday, SHFE copper increased in positions, fluctuated, and closed up. The spot copper was reported at 88,980 yuan, with a premium in Shanghai of 140 yuan and a shrinking premium in Guangdong to 85 yuan. It has resilience in the previous trading - intensive area of 88,300 - 88,500 yuan. Long positions should be held based on the MA5 daily moving average [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of SHFE aluminum have limited contradictions. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major areas has shown narrow fluctuations this week. It is testing the resistance near the previous high of 22,000 yuan. The price difference between cast aluminum alloy and SHFE aluminum has expanded to over 800 yuan, with potential for narrowing at the end of the year [3] - Alumina has a high operating capacity, with increasing industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts. The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and it will be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [3] Zinc - Domestic smelters have a strong production - reduction expectation, and overseas smelters have a mediocre production - increase expectation in the fourth quarter. The supply constraint of zinc ingots is strengthening, and the zinc price is expected to rise, possibly breaking through the annual line [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel's rebound is under pressure, and it is mainly in a low - volatility, range - bound operation. The inventory of stainless steel 300 - series cold - rolled products has increased, and the support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening [7] Tin - SHFE tin increased in positions and rose again. It is not recommended to chase the high price, and a medium - to - long - term short - position with a hedging strategy is advisable [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuates narrowly. The market has a large divergence. The total market inventory has decreased, and the price of Australian ore remains strong [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is in a weakening trend. The supply in the main production areas of Sichuan and Yunnan may decrease during the dry season, and the demand may be suppressed by the joint production cuts of silicone enterprises, but the price decline is expected to be limited [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon strengthened again today after a callback due to position limits yesterday. The main driver is the expectation of tight delivery products. In the short term, the market is likely to fluctuate due to potential regulatory rules and national meetings [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to environmental protection and pollution control in its production processes, ensuring compliance with national regulations and continuous investment in reducing environmental impact [2] Group 1: Pollution Management - The main pollutants generated during the company's production operations include wastewater, waste gas, solid waste, and noise [2] - The company has obtained discharge permits for its major production bases or has registered discharges as required [2] - The company strictly adheres to national environmental laws and regulations in its daily operations [2] Group 2: Future Commitment - The company plans to continue investing in efforts to reduce its environmental footprint [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Report Core Views Tin - Consider the fundamentals strong and maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and buy on dips. Monitor macro - end changes and supply - side recovery [2]. Industrial Silicon - Expect industrial silicon prices to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. The market will maintain weak supply - demand in December [5]. Polysilicon - Anticipate an oversupply situation in December with inventory accumulation expected in all sectors. On the trading side, stay on the sidelines for futures and consider taking profits on options [6]. Nickel - Forecast the nickel price to range - bound in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [7]. Stainless Steel - Expect stainless steel prices to remain weakly oscillating, with the main operating range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Focus on steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [9]. Aluminum - Predict alumina prices to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton. For aluminum, expect prices to be strong in the short term, with the main contract range of 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton [15][16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Forecast casting aluminum alloy prices to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction [17]. Zinc - Expect zinc prices to oscillate. The downside space is limited in the short term, and prices will likely remain in the range of 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to TC inflection points and inventory changes [19]. Copper - Forecast copper prices to have a gradually rising bottom center in the medium - to - long term, with the main support level at 86000 - 87000 yuan/ton. Monitor overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.14% to 304700 yuan/ton, and LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 21.95% to 150 dollars/ton [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 22.39% to - 820 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 41.98% [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 250% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in the month, and Xinjiang's production increased by 0.83% [5]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: N - type re -投料 average price remained unchanged at 52350 yuan/kg, and the N - type material basis increased by 25.96% [6]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between the front - month and the first - following month decreased by 50.10% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 11.44%, and monthly production decreased by 14.48% [6]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.13% to 119900 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.08% [7]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% [7]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 4.71% [9]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts remained unchanged at - 70 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [9]. Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.09% to 21710 yuan/ton, and alumina (Shandong) average price decreased by 0.36% [14][16]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton [14][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [14][16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price increased by 0.47% to 21600 yuan/ton, and the Foshan crushed raw aluminum scrap - to - refined spread decreased by 1.77% [17]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 20 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84% [17]. Zinc - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.80% to 22740 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and exports increased by 243.79% in October [19]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.69% to 88660 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton [20]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 20 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 15.61% in October [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining in a loss. The market anticipates that if the dovish Hassert is elected as the new Fed Chair, it will strengthen the market's dovish bets, but balancing monetary stimulus and inflation poses challenges. Domestically, attention is on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. In December, the estimated domestic electrolytic copper production is 1168800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.96% and a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. Due to high copper prices, terminal orders have slowed, and the market maintains rigid procurement demand. There are uncertainties about whether the price can continue to rebound as the off - season approaches and there is no sign of a rapid release of demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur; instead, there were new investments and复产 rhythms, leading to a significant correction in the futures market. The decline in aluminum prices has boosted downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand is gradually being fulfilled in the short term. However, as the new energy vehicle purchase tax rush ends and the matching of State Grid orders concludes, it is less likely for aluminum prices to reach a new high this year, and the upside space depends on the bulls' response to subsequent macro - dynamics [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. The inventory of primary nickel is under pressure, and the production in December is expected to increase month - on - month. Considering the cost support of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel at 110000 yuan/ton, one can consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors' impact on maintaining an optimistic mood is uncertain. Microscopically, the shortage of concentrates supports copper's high valuation, but the lack of rapid demand release in the off - season makes price recovery uncertain [1]. - **Aluminum**: The non - occurrence of expected environmental production restrictions and new investments/复产 have led to a correction in the futures market. Aluminum prices have support, but the possibility of reaching a new high is low [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The nickel - stainless steel industry chain is weak, while the new energy industry chain has tight raw materials. One can consider bottom - fishing with cost support but beware of risks [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 610 yuan/ton, and the inventory in some exchanges changed. For example, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 927 tons [1][4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 80 yuan/ton, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased slightly, and the total inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 8439 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 225 yuan/ton, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.8%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.6%, and the SMM spot price decreased by 3500 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2025 [9][10][16]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][20][24]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts depict the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [45][47][49]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [52]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon, providing in - depth reports and risk management services [52]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst focusing on lithium and nickel, tracking the new energy industry chain and providing policy interpretations [53].

市场分析 海外现货升水再次走达到268美元/吨，出口利润扩大，国内现货升贴水持续表现为向好趋势，基本面方面全面偏向 利好，国内社会库存持续下滑，11月冶炼端产量环比回落且明显低于预期，现货升贴水持续向上修复，一方面体 现消费强度另一方面体现供应偏紧。海内外TC持续下滑， 国内高海拔矿山已经进入冬季停产检修周期，TC价格 的快速回落叠加绝对价格的回落造成冶炼综合成本开始面临亏损，在供给端压力后期有望下滑。基本面数据已经 全面从前期利空转为利多，且当前锌估值偏低，美国12月降息预期提高，但对未来的消费保持乐观，降息预期不 改，再通胀尚未体现。 策略 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：跨期正套。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-03 海外升水再次走高 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为268.39美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化180元/吨至22740元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水30元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日160元/吨至22680元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-30元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日180元/吨至22670元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-5元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-0 ...