Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 44.072 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.47% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 4.398 billion yuan, up 15.14% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.13% [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company recorded a net profit of 1.630 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 25.31% [1] - The company's gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 17.95%, a slight decrease from 18.10% in Q2 2025 [2] - The average price of aluminum in Q3 2025 was 20,710.8 yuan per ton, compared to 20,201.0 yuan per ton in Q2 2025 [2] Liquidity and Debt Management - As of Q3 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents amounting to 10.675 billion yuan, a significant increase from 7.570 billion yuan in H1 2025 [3] - The asset-liability ratio stood at 23.21% in Q3 2025, down from 23.28% in H1 2025 [3] - The company has maintained stable dividend payouts, supported by a low asset-liability ratio, indicating potential for increased dividend distribution [3] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 57.6 billion, 58.9 billion, and 60.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 2.3%, and 2.2% respectively [4] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 6.50 billion, 7.41 billion, and 8.29 billion yuan, with growth rates of 47.4%, 14.0%, and 11.9% [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a projected PE ratio of 12.36, 10.85, and 9.70 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co., Ltd., has announced its third-quarter report for 2025, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the financial information presented in the report [1][8]. Financial Data Summary - The third-quarter financial statements are unaudited [2]. - The report period refers to the three months from the beginning to the end of the quarter [2]. Non-Recurring Gains and Losses - The company has identified non-recurring gains and losses, but specific amounts and reasons for classification are not detailed in the provided documents [3]. Shareholder Information - The report includes information on the total number of ordinary shareholders and the top ten shareholders, although specific data is not provided [4]. Production Information - The report indicates that the production data for lead and zinc concentrates has been adjusted for the period from January to September 2024, excluding the production from Tibet Xinh Lake [5]. Board Meeting Details - The eighth board of directors held its 26th meeting on October 24, 2025, where the third-quarter report was approved unanimously [9][13]. Joint Investment Progress - The company has entered into a joint investment agreement with several partners, including China Aluminum Group, to establish a joint venture named Zhonglv Qianxing (Chengdu) Technology Co., Ltd. [18][19]. - The registered capital of the joint venture is set at RMB 1.5 billion, with specific contributions from each partner outlined [21][22].

Group 1 - Northern Copper Industry held its 10th fifth board meeting on October 24, 2025, via telecommunication to review the Q3 2025 report and other documents [1] - For the first half of 2025, Northern Copper's revenue composition was entirely from non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, accounting for 100.0% [1] Group 2 - As of the report, Northern Copper's market capitalization is 30.3 billion yuan [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on non-ferrous metals by New Era Futures Research, dated October 24, 2025 [1] Group 2: Metal Price Movements - Copper: The futures price of CU2512 rose from 84,390 to 87,720, a weekly increase of 3,330 or 3.95%. The spot price of 1 copper in Shanghai increased from 84,850 to 86,400, up 1,550 or 1.83% [2] - Aluminum: The futures price of AL2512 increased from 20,910 to 21,225, a weekly rise of 315 or 1.51%. The spot price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai went up from 20,940 to 21,110, an increase of 170 or 0.81% [2] - Zinc: The futures price of ZN2512 climbed from 21,830 to 22,355, a weekly gain of 525 or 2.40%. The spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai increased from 21,880 to 22,200, up 320 or 1.46% [2] - Lead: The futures price of PB2512 rose from 17,090 to 17,595, a weekly increase of 505 or 2.95%. The spot price of 1 lead ingot rose from 16,900 to 17,300, up 400 or 2.37% [2] - Nickel: The futures price of NI2512 increased from 121,330 to 122,150, a weekly gain of 820 or 0.68%. The spot price of 1 electrolytic nickel went up from 122,350 to 122,900, an increase of 550 or 0.45% [2] - Alumina: The futures price of AO2601 increased slightly from 2,800 to 2,810, a weekly rise of 10 or 0.36%. The spot price of alumina in Foshan decreased from 2,990 to 2,950, a decline of 40 or -1.34% [2] - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of SI2601 rose from 8,800 to 8,920, a weekly increase of 120 or 1.36%. The spot price of 553 silicon decreased from 9,500 to 9,400, a decline of 100 or -1.05% [2] - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of LC2601 increased from 75,780 to 79,520, a weekly gain of 3,740 or 4.94%. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) rose from 73,850 to 75,400, up 1,550 or 2.10% [2] - Polysilicon: The futures price of PS2601 decreased from 54,850 to 52,305, a weekly decline of 2,545 or -4.64%. The spot price of N - type polysilicon material increased from 52,800 to 52,980, up 180 or 0.34% [2] Group 3: Metal Inventory Changes - Copper: As of October 24, SHFE copper inventory was 104,800 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons or -4.90% from last week. LME copper inventory was 136,400 tons, a decrease of 800 tons or -0.58% from last week. As of October 23, COMEX copper inventory was 347,500 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons or +0.81% from last week [13][14] - Zinc: As of October 24, LME zinc inventory was 37,600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or -1.13% from last week. SHFE zinc inventory was 65,800 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons or -2.23% from last week [23] - Aluminum: As of October 24, LME aluminum inventory was 473,100 tons, a decrease of 18,100 tons from last week. SHFE aluminum inventory was 118,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from last week. COMEX aluminum inventory was 7,422 tons, an increase of 761 tons from last week [40][41] Group 4: Processing Fees and Indexes - Copper Concentrate: As of October 23, the spot TC of copper concentrate was -40.70 dollars/ton, remaining unchanged weekly, and the tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists [17] - Lithium Spodumene Concentrate: As of October 24, the latest quote was 881 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 35 dollars/ton [20] - Zinc Concentrate: As of October 24, the main port TC of zinc concentrate was 105 dollars/ton, remaining the same as on October 17 [24] Group 5: Demand - Side Analysis - Automobile: In August, automobile production and sales reached 2.815 million and 2.857 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August, automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million units respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%, and new energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.8% of total vehicle sales [44] - Real Estate: From January to August, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.431 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new construction area was 398 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5% [46] - Power Generation: As of the end of August, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 48.5%, and wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1% [48] Group 6: Strategy Recommendations Alumina and Aluminum - Short - term: Alumina is expected to run weakly and oscillatingly; Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly and oscillatingly [51] - Long - term: Terminal demand remains resilient. Considering the US dollar interest - rate cut rhythm and positive macro sentiment, Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly and oscillatingly [51] Polysilicon - Short - term: For polysilicon, policy influence continues to ferment, with short - term high - level range oscillation. For industrial silicon, as the wet season in the southwest ends and electricity prices rise, manufacturers will arrange production cuts at the end of the month, and the production cost of industrial silicon may increase. Attention should be paid to policy expectation guidance [55] - Long - term: The industry's over - supply pattern has not been reversed. Attention should be paid to the policy implementation rhythm and actual demand follow - up [55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market is strong, and copper prices have risen. With uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, but an improvement in sentiment, and tight copper raw material supply, copper prices may remain strong [2][3]. - Aluminum prices continue to strengthen. With the marginal easing of Sino - US trade tensions and low domestic aluminum ingot inventory, aluminum prices may further rise in the short term [5][6]. - Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term. With an increase in lead ore port inventory, an improvement in the operating rate of lead smelters, and a decrease in downstream finished product inventory, combined with a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. With a decrease in domestic zinc ore inventory, an increase in domestic zinc ingot inventory, and a high structural risk of LME zinc, along with a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market [11][12]. - Tin prices may remain high and oscillate in the short term. With slow tin mine复产 in Myanmar and strict crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia, and a marginal improvement in downstream consumption during the peak season [13][14]. - Nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short term. With marginal easing of Sino - US trade frictions, but significant refined nickel inventory pressure, and long - term support from US monetary policy and domestic policies [15][16]. - The price of lithium carbonate may continue to rise. With a decrease in domestic social inventory and an improvement in fundamentals, attention should be paid to the pressure from supply recovery and industrial hedging [19][20]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term. With support for ore prices in the short term but potential pressure after the rainy season, and an over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end, but the possibility of a strong non - ferrous metal sector driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation [22][23]. - Stainless steel prices may continue to improve. With Qing Shan Group's price - supporting attitude and an improvement in market confidence, the key lies in the release of downstream demand [25][26]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy has limited upward space. With strong cost support but high warehouse receipts and large delivery pressure on near - month contracts [28][29]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Conditions**: The LME 3M copper contract rose 1.49% to $10,817/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract reached 86,730 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 75 to 136,925 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts declined. Domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 36,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the futures, and in Guangdong, it was at a premium of 65 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference widened to 3,360 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy**: Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations and tight copper raw material supply, copper prices may remain strong. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 85,600 - 87,200 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 10,680 - 10,950 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: The LME aluminum rose 2.12% to $2,865/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract reached 21,265 yuan/ton. The position of the SHFE weighted contract increased by 4.3 to 560,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 67,000 tons. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.7 tons, and that of aluminum rods decreased by 0.25 tons. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline. The spot in East China was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.5 to 478,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts remained high [5]. - **Strategy**: With the marginal easing of Sino - US trade tensions and low domestic aluminum ingot inventory, the short - term price may further rise. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 21,050 - 21,380 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum is 2,820 - 2,890 dollars/ton [6]. Lead - **Market Conditions**: The SHFE lead index rose 2.28% to 17,563 yuan/ton. The LME 3S lead rose 14.5 to $2,007/ton. The refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead futures inventory was 23,700 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 244,100 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 26,100 tons [8]. - **Strategy**: With an increase in lead ore port inventory, an improvement in the operating rate of lead smelters, and a decrease in downstream finished product inventory, combined with a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: The SHFE zinc index rose 1.54% to 22,347 yuan/ton. The LME 3S zinc rose 31.5 to $3,034.5/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 162,100 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 10,900 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: With a decrease in domestic zinc ore inventory, an increase in domestic zinc ingot inventory, and a high structural risk of LME zinc, along with a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [12]. Tin - **Market Conditions**: On October 23, 2025, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 281,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar was slow, and Indonesia cracked down on illegal mining. The combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased to 29.72%. Downstream demand in new energy vehicles and AI servers was strong, but traditional consumer electronics and the photovoltaic sector were weak. The operating rate of tin solder in domestic sample enterprises in August recovered to 73.22% [13]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may lead to a decline in market risk appetite, but tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with the recovery of demand in the peak season, tin prices may remain high and oscillate. It is recommended to observe. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is 34,000 - 36,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: The SHFE nickel main contract was flat at 121,380 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average. The price of nickel ore was stable, the price of nickel pig iron was weak, and the price of MHP was high due to increased demand from downstream industries [15]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, with the marginal easing of Sino - US trade frictions and significant refined nickel inventory pressure, it is recommended to observe. If the price drops enough, consider buying on dips. The operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose 2.24% to 77,569 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,700 yuan, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.28%. The LC2601 contract rose 3.66% to 79,940 yuan. The domestic production of lithium carbonate increased by 1.1% to 21,308 tons, and the inventory decreased by 1.7% to 130,366 tons [19]. - **Strategy**: With strong downstream demand and a decrease in domestic social inventory, the price may continue to rise. Pay attention to the pressure from supply recovery and industrial hedging. The operating range of the GFEX lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 77,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.32% to 2,848 yuan/ton. The position increased by 0.6 to 475,000 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,800 yuan/ton, at a discount of 4 yuan/ton to the 11 - contract. The MYSTEEL Australian FOB price decreased by 1 to $314/ton, and the import profit and loss was 21 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.09 to 221,300 tons. The CIF price of Guinea ore was 72.5 dollars/ton, and that of Australian ore was 69 dollars/ton [22]. - **Strategy**: Ore prices have short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to be strong. It is recommended to observe in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Conditions**: The SHFE stainless steel main contract rose 0.43% to 12,765 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices were stable. The futures inventory was 74,376 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1,027,400 tons, a decrease of 1.33% [25]. - **Strategy**: With Qing Shan Group's price - supporting attitude and an improvement in market confidence, the key lies in the release of downstream demand. If terminal procurement can continue, the market improvement trend may continue [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Conditions**: The main AD2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.54% to 20,625 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract decreased slightly to 25,700 lots, and the trading volume was 5,500 lots. The warehouse receipts increased by 0.02 to 47,800 tons. The price of domestic and imported ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton. The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.09 to 75,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory of aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.1 to 60,700 tons [28]. - **Strategy**: With strong cost support but high warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure on near - month contracts is large, and the upward price space is relatively limited [29].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are decent, and keep an eye on terminal demand. In the long run, hold at low prices [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to wait and see or consider short - selling LME zinc. For the internal - external spread, gradually take profits on long internal - short external spreads and watch for far - month reverse spreads. For the monthly spread, pay attention to the positive spread between December and February [2]. - For nickel, with a weak short - term real - world fundamental situation, it is advisable to wait and see due to ongoing disruptions in the Indonesian mining end and increased short - term macro uncertainties [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - supporting motivation from Indonesian policies [8]. - For lead, expect narrow - range oscillations in the lead price next week between 17,000 - 17,300, and consider positive spreads [10]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systemic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downside. In the long - term, hold near the cost line on dips [12]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [13]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong with a de - stocking trend. In the long - term, the elasticity of demand, especially with the increasing proportion of energy storage, is the key variable for a pattern reversal [14]. Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 20, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 199, and there were various changes in inventory and import profitability indicators [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is influenced by tariff negotiations. Fundamentally, smelting production cuts are higher than expected, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. Downstream price - fixing quantities and purchasing sentiment are acceptable, and the psychological price - fixing level has risen. Copper cable and aluminum cable starts have diverged [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices increased by 60, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, and there were changes in inventory and premium indicators [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Production capacity is flat. Demand from photovoltaic components has stabilized. There was seasonal inventory accumulation during the holiday and significant post - holiday de - stocking. The global economic recovery and Fed rate - cut expectations coexist with Sino - US trade uncertainties, leading to a divergence in internal and external market trends [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 20, and there were changes in prices, inventory, and import profitability indicators. The LME C - 3M decreased by 113, and LME inventory decreased by 600 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price oscillated this week. On the supply side, domestic TC decreased, and imported TC increased. The domestic ore supply will be tighter from Q4 this year to Q1 next year, while overseas ore supply increased significantly in Q2. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas European demand is average. The domestic social inventory oscillated, and the LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100, and there were changes in import profitability and LME - related indicators [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating both domestically and overseas [4]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled sheets, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Steel mills' production in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. Demand is mainly from rigid needs. Costs of ferronickel and ferrochrome are stable. Inventory remains at a high level [8]. Lead - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 10, and there were changes in price spreads, inventory, and import profitability indicators [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The lead price oscillated slightly at a high level this week. On the supply side, scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production is expected to increase in October. On the demand side, battery production increased this week, but there is an expectation of weakening demand after the National Day holiday [10]. Tin - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the tin position decreased by 47, the LME C - 3M increased by 45, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The tin price oscillated this week. On the supply side, the processing fee for tin ore is at a low level, and supply is gradually recovering. On the demand side, the solder market warmed up slightly during the peak season, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased by 220, and the basis of 553 in East China and Tianjin also decreased by 220. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 367 [13]. - **Market Analysis**: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The overall supply of industrial silicon will decline in the dry season, but considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply - demand balance in Q4 is slightly loose [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 450, the basis of the main contract decreased by 2370, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 260 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate price oscillated strongly this week. On the raw material side, the ore market is firm, and spot supply is tight. On the lithium salt side, consumption and de - stocking are better than expected [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuate, closing with a doji star, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. In terms of positions, long positions slightly decreased while short positions increased, indicating a rebound on shrinking volume. The price rebounded but long - position holders exited to wait and see, while short - position holders continued to enter the market to suppress. In the short term, the market may fluctuate repeatedly. Technically, the price closed below the long - term moving average with weak support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and was operating in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with both long and short forces increasing, and the dominance of short forces narrowing. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc contract ZN2512 will fluctuate and rebound [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc plate production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons [2]. 2. Basis Information - The spot price was 21,930 yuan, and the basis was - 70 yuan, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Information - On October 22, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,975 tons to 35,300 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,059 tons to 65,209 tons compared with the previous day [2]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On October 22, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 160,966 lots, with a total trading value of 1.77017246 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 229,833 lots, an increase of 299 lots [3]. 5. Domestic Spot Market Quotes - On October 22, the prices of zinc - related products in the domestic spot market showed different trends. For example, the price of zinc concentrate was 17,080 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots was 21,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets was 3,963 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes was 4,358 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [4]. 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From October 9 to October 20, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 136,200 tons to 162,900 tons. Compared with October 13, it increased by 9,400 tons; compared with October 16, it increased by 7,300 tons [5]. 7. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report - On October 22, the total zinc warrants on the futures exchange were 65,209 tons, a decrease of 1,059 tons compared with the previous day. Among them, the warrants in Guangdong were 37,874 tons (unchanged), in Jiangsu were 323 tons (a decrease of 99 tons), and in Tianjin were 27,012 tons (a decrease of 960 tons) [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 21, the total LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons compared with the previous day. The inventory in Singapore was 33,850 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons; the inventory in Port Klang was 1,325 tons (unchanged); the inventory in Hong Kong was 125 tons (unchanged) [8]. 9. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On October 22, the prices of zinc ingots from major domestic smelters all decreased by 40 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting was 22,170 yuan/ton, from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,600 yuan/ton, and from Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan was 21,900 yuan/ton [13]. 10. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The production was 1.35% lower than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.80%. The planned production in October was 509,600 tons [16]. 11. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On October 22, the processing fees for zinc concentrates in different regions showed different levels. For domestic zinc concentrates with a grade of 50%, the average processing fee in different regions ranged from 3,100 to 3,800 yuan/metal ton; for imported zinc concentrates with a grade of 48%, the average processing fee was 105 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 12. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2512 on October 22, the total trading volume of members was 160,980 lots, a decrease of 2,283 lots compared with the previous day; the total long positions were 88,461 lots, a decrease of 131 lots; the total short positions were 94,885 lots, an increase of 1,036 lots [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold at low prices in the long term while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to wait and see or consider shorting LME zinc. For the spread between domestic and overseas markets, gradually take profits on long domestic - short overseas positions and look for reverse spread opportunities in the far - month contracts. For the month - to - month spread, focus on the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, with a weak short - term fundamental situation and increased short - term macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, follow the macro sentiment in the short term and wait and see. If there is a systematic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downward space. In the medium - to - long - term, buy at low prices near the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the medium - to - long - term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply and demand are both strong in the short term, maintaining a de - stocking trend. In the long - term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for the pattern change [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market sentiment is mainly influenced by tariff negotiation progress. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be no higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, when LME copper fell 12% and gold rose 2.6%. There is still room for negotiation, and the progress of the South Korea negotiation should be monitored [1]. - Fundamentally, the smelting reduction is more than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's price - setting volume and receiving sentiment are acceptable, and the psychological price - setting level has significantly increased. The copper cable's recent start - up diverges from that of the aluminum cable, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the start - up stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules on the demand side stabilizes, and the proportion of aluminum water in September has significantly rebounded. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in aluminum ingots and aluminum rods due to the holiday effect, but the post - holiday de - stocking amplitude is considerable, and the apparent demand rises [1]. - The global economic recovery signs are emerging, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened, but the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations deepens, causing a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and overseas markets [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillates this week. On the supply side, the domestic TC further decreases, and the imported TC further increases. The domestic ore will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas ore increment in the second quarter exceeds expectations. In August, China imported 460,000 tons of zinc ore, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43%. In October, the smelting end recovers slightly month - on - month, and the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on the total profit should be noted when the domestic ore processing fee declines [2]. - On the demand side, the domestic demand is seasonally weak and may continue to oscillate weakly after the peak season in September. Overseas, the European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestically, the social inventory oscillates, while the overseas LME inventory decreases, and the visible inventory is close to the lowest level in the past two years. The export window has opened under the current situation of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, and some smelters and traders are preparing for exports [2]. Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, and the premium has been stable recently. On the inventory side, both domestic and overseas inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term fundamental situation is weak [5]. - There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. The short - term macro uncertainty increases [5]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the steel mills' production schedule in October increases slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The overall fundamentals are weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies [9]. Lead - The lead price oscillates slightly at a high level this week. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year - on - year. The recovery of recycled lead profits is expected to lead to an incremental production of 20,000 - 30,000 tons in October. The macro sentiment combined with the shortage of waste batteries may drive recyclers to support prices. The concentrate mine's operation rate increases, and the high smelting profit of primary lead leads to a shortage of concentrates, with the TC quotation declining in a chaotic manner [10][11]. - On the demand side, the battery's operation rate increases this week, but the battery's finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day stocking, the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50, and the recycled lead production has gradually started to output. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased by 100,000 tons. There is an expectation of the peak season turning to the off - season in October. After the National Day, the downstream replenishes goods, and there is a short - term inventory - picking demand [11]. Tin - The tin price oscillates this week. On the supply side, the mining processing fee is at a low level. Some scattered orders have tentatively raised the quotation, but large - scale transactions have not occurred yet. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August is still low, but the recovery expectation in October is strong, and it is expected to maintain above 600 metal tons. The quota approval of Indonesia's PT Timah has been completed, and exports resumed in mid - to - late September. The Indonesian president announced that tin ingot exports will return to normal levels in 2026 [13]. - On the demand side, the solder peak season has a slight recovery, mainly supported by rigidity at high prices. After the festival, the arrival of goods is slow, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. The overseas LME inventory oscillates at a low level. The domestic fundamentals show a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Pay attention to the expected change of the peak season not being prosperous after the marginal recovery of supply at home and abroad in October and the impact of the interest - rate cut expectation on the non - ferrous metals as a whole [13]. Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continue to resume production, with 35 furnaces in the west and 55 in the east. The number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will significantly decrease in the future. The overall supply of industrial silicon will decline month - on - month during the dry season. Considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon in Q4 is still in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, the operating rate is low, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price oscillates strongly this week. On the raw material side, the mining end continues to support prices. Due to the significant reduction of the previous inventory, the holders' reluctance to sell is strong, and the spot market is tight. On the lithium salt side, the consumption trend and de - stocking level continuously exceed expectations. With the acceleration of warehouse receipt cancellation this week, the basis of first - tier brands also runs strongly [15]. - In the short term, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the overall de - stocking trend is maintained. It is expected to de - stock 8,000 - 10,000 tons in October. At the end of the year, there are multiple expected games such as the weakening of power demand in the off - season, the sustainability of energy - storage demand, and the supply disturbance in Jiangxi. In the long - term pattern, the supply growth rate at the current price is relatively certain, and the subsequent elasticity of the demand side with the increasing proportion of energy - storage is the key variable for the pattern change [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade negotiations remains, but the recent meeting between the two sides has marginally improved the sentiment. In the copper industry, raw material supply is tight, and future supply expectations are tightening due to overseas copper mine production cuts, so copper prices may strengthen after short - term fluctuations. For aluminum, the short - term price may further rise in a volatile manner as the domestic inventory level is low and overseas supply is disrupted. Lead is expected to be strong in the short term due to continuous destocking of lead ingot social and factory inventories. Zinc may oscillate at a low level with limited upside potential because of high overseas structural risks and rising domestic total inventory. Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term due to a tight supply - demand balance and improving seasonal demand. Nickel prices may be under short - term pressure but have limited downside space in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices are approaching the previous pressure level, and attention should be paid to supply recovery expectations and hedging pressure. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term as the cost support and supply - side reduction expectations coexist. Stainless steel market confidence has been restored, and the follow - up trend depends on downstream demand. Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upside due to high warehouse receipts and cost - side support [3][5][8][10][13][15][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The LME 3M copper contract rose 0.59% to $10,658/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, and the domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 37,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices may strengthen after oscillation. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 84,800 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper is $10,550 - $10,800/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. The LME aluminum closed up 0.88% at $2,405/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,105 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract open interest increased by 2.6 to 517,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 67,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 483,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may further rise in a volatile manner. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,960 - 21,250 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum is $2,780 - $2,840/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.09% to 17,172 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S rose to $1,992.5/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased slightly to 32,800 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: The SHFE lead is expected to be strong in the short term as the supply and demand situation is favorable with continuous destocking [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.14% to 22,008 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S rose to $3,003/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 165,300 tons [9]. - **Strategy**: The SHFE zinc may oscillate at a low level with limited upside potential due to high overseas structural risks and rising domestic total inventory [10]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 22, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 0.29% to 281,680 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal mining. The demand from new energy vehicles and AI servers is strong, but traditional sectors are weak. The short - term consumption has improved marginally [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is $34,000 - $36,000/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices continued to oscillate at a low level. The SHFE nickel main contract was flat at 121,380 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average, and the price of nickel ore was stable. The price of nickel iron was weak, and the price of MHP was high [14]. - **Strategy**: Short - term nickel prices may be under pressure but have limited downside space in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index dropped 0.17%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased, and the LC2601 contract rose 1.50% [18]. - **Strategy**: The price is approaching the previous pressure level. Attention should be paid to supply recovery expectations and hedging pressure. The reference range for the LC2601 contract is 75,200 - 79,200 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 22, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.67% to 2,839 yuan/ton. The overseas FOB price dropped, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.36% to 12,710 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly while the 300 - series inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Market confidence has been restored, and the follow - up trend depends on downstream demand [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2512 rose 0.56% to 20,515 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price was flat, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side support has strengthened, but the price upside is limited due to high warehouse receipts [28].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongjin Lingnan is accelerating its strategic transformation towards the recycling of rare metals and high-value materials, leveraging its strong foundation in traditional metals like copper, lead, and zinc [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Development - The company aims to build a world-class multi-metal resource company with a focus on mineral resources as the core, green smelting centered on rare metal recycling, and deep processing of new materials as the two wings of its strategy [2]. - Zhongjin Lingnan is establishing a "dual circulation" resource reserve system through domestic exploration and overseas expansion, focusing on increasing reserves of rare metals such as gallium, germanium, indium, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [3]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - The company emphasizes the importance of core technology in transforming resource advantages into industry influence, particularly in response to the urgent demand for high-purity rare metals in the semiconductor and new energy sectors [4]. - Zhongjin Lingnan has achieved significant technological breakthroughs in its smelting processes, including the first large-scale application of environmentally friendly zinc smelting techniques and innovations in vacuum smelting and purification processes for rare metals [5][6]. Group 3: Environmental Sustainability - The company adheres to principles of green, low-carbon, and safe development, promoting efficient resource utilization and the application of energy-saving and environmentally friendly technologies [7]. - Zhongjin Lingnan implements various environmental technology renovation projects annually, achieving a 20% reduction in energy consumption and a decrease of 150 kg in carbon emissions per ton of copper compared to traditional processes [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company recognizes both opportunities and challenges in the rare metal industry, driven by explosive demand from emerging sectors like new energy and semiconductors, while also facing high dependence on foreign raw materials and gaps in high-end technology [8]. - Zhongjin Lingnan plans to enhance its global resource control, technological leadership, and industry resilience through a strategy that integrates resources, technology, and strategic development [8].