Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the construction materials sector is expected to continue its recovery due to increased infrastructure investment and consumption stimulation, supported by government policies [3][4]. - The real estate sector has shown weakened sales momentum in recent months, with a focus on policy impacts for short-term rebounds and a need for improved sales recovery and company fundamentals for medium-term outlook [3][28]. - The building materials sector is facing challenges such as weak demand, excess capacity, and inventory pressure, but upcoming policies are expected to enhance environmental standards and control capacity, positively impacting profitability [4][50]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - The central government is emphasizing urban renewal and fiscal measures to support the real estate market, including the issuance of special bonds [3][28]. - The real estate sector has seen a slight increase of 0.66% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points [15][20]. - Key companies to watch include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Vanke, focusing on stable operations and strong positions in first and second-tier cities [3][28]. Building Materials Sector - The building materials sector has experienced a 6.23% increase over the past two weeks, ranking second among 31 sectors [29][31]. - Cement prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with the national average price at 320 RMB per ton, down 4 RMB from the previous week [36][50]. - Companies such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are recommended for their solid fundamentals and attractive dividend yields [4][50]. Consumer Building Materials - Retail sales of building and decoration materials reached 15.8 billion RMB in June, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0% [5][53]. - The report anticipates a recovery in sales and profit margins for consumer building materials companies due to market improvements and cost optimization strategies [7][53]. - Recommended companies include Beixin Building Materials, Rabbit Baby, and Three Trees for their competitive advantages and solid fundamentals [7][53].

金鹰基金权益研究部策略研究员金达莱 首席经济学家、基金经理杨刚 7月A股大幅放量冲关9.24以来高点，多行业轮动扩大赚钱效应。月内国防军工受益于9.3阅兵预期，行 业表现活跃，而市场风偏提振下，AI驱动的产业链展现出更大弹性。与此同时，创新药再迎政策利好 和恒瑞医药海外BD大单，也点燃了市场投资热情。此外，超预期一面在于，中央财经委推动供给侧反 内卷带动周期行业大幅反弹，以及"雅下水电站"开工进一步推动市场短期风偏。 展望8月市场，关税对全球经济实际影响将显现，等待国内外局势更趋明朗。海外方面，中美新一轮谈 判目前并未有明确进一步进展，此前市场偏乐观的预期或有一定修正。此外，232调查等针对个别行业 的超高关税有待落地。美联储在通胀抬升和就业不差的美国经济背景下，难以引导宽松预期。国内方 面，进入8月，PMI转弱已显示此前"抢出口"效应对经济抬升的支撑正在减弱，我国关税落地后对基本 面的实际影响将进入真实考察期，短期政治局会议基调延续稳中求进，增量政策或难以期待。总体而 言，海内外均有不同层面的不确定性因素有待资本市场消化，市场高位下后续需检验基本面韧性。 后续，还需重点关注以下海内外因素，预计这些方面都可能 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 8 月 1 日 油） 021-60635738 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-606355 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Yesterday, the glass futures market dropped significantly, with the main 2509 contract of glass futures falling 8.22%. The operating rate of float glass enterprises this week was 75%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week, and the manufacturer's inventory was 59.499 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million heavy boxes from the previous week. Currently, glass supply shows no sign of contraction, and the real - estate sector drags down the rigid demand, while speculative demand has increased. The inventory has been continuously decreasing but remains at a high level. In the long run, the glass supply - demand situation remains relatively loose [1]. - The soda ash futures market also dropped significantly yesterday, with the main 2509 contract of soda ash futures falling 6.45%. The capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.27%, a 2.75% decrease from the previous week, the output was 699,800 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week, and the inventory was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons from the previous week. Currently, soda ash production remains at a high level and is in the summer maintenance stage, with relatively restrained capacity release. Later, as projects are gradually implemented, the soda ash capacity may be further released. Meanwhile, due to the "anti - involution" impact in the photovoltaic industry, there is an expectation of production cuts, and soda ash consumption may further weaken, increasing the inventory pressure later [1]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the collective sharp decline of black commodities drove the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures to hit the daily limit. The main contract of silicomanganese futures dropped 170 yuan/ton from the previous day, closing at 5946 yuan/ton. In the spot market, there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton. Silicomanganese production increased month - on - month, hot metal production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The shipping from Australia in the manganese ore segment has basically recovered. After the silicomanganese price was boosted by macro - sentiment, the hedging willingness of enterprises increased, but with the decline of coking coal and coke futures, the market sentiment cooled down to some extent [3]. - Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5696 yuan/ton, a drop of 312 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the price remained stable, and the cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5600 - 5800 yuan/ton. The demand for ferrosilicon remained resilient, and the factory inventory was at a medium - to - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment improved, but with the sharp decline of coking coal, the market sentiment cooled down to some extent. In the long run, the ferrosilicon capacity is relatively loose [3]. Group 2: Strategy Glass and Soda Ash - The strategy for glass is to be weakly volatile [2]. - The strategy for soda ash is to be weakly volatile [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The strategy for silicomanganese is to be weakly volatile [4]. - The strategy for ferrosilicon is to be weakly volatile [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [7]. - The outlook for specific varieties is also mostly "oscillating", including steel, iron ore, coke, etc. [9][10][13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the important meeting, although the tone is positive, it fails to meet the market's overly enthusiastic expectations, leading to a decline in black prices. However, as the previous bubble is squeezed out, there may be subsequent positive policies. The terminal demand has not shown an obvious turnaround, and the focus currently lies in the intermediate links. The market is volatile, and deep declines are not expected in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see to avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance in the future [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Steel mills' profitability has increased again, but iron water production has decreased in some areas due to rainfall, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in berthing ships, and at mills have all decreased. With high demand and inventory reduction in the iron ore market, there is limited negative driving force in the fundamentals. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the price has slightly declined, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - Some coal mines have resumed production, but production disturbances still exist, and overall supply is slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high. Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories. Affected by the recent decline in the futures market, the downstream and traders are more cautious. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the short - term futures market is expected to be highly volatile [3] Alloys - The continuous increase in coke prices has strengthened the cost support for ferromanganese - silicon. The manganese ore market is more cautious, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The demand for ferromanganese - silicon from steel mills is still resilient, but as manufacturers resume production, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and both are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Glass - In the off - season, glass demand has declined, deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the number of days of raw glass inventory has increased. After the futures market decline, the spot market sentiment has cooled down. The supply is expected to remain stable. The "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate, and the short - term futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely [6] Soda Ash - In the long term, the over - supply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market, but the delivery pressure is large. It is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and the long - term price center will decline [6] Steel - After the Politburo meeting, the macro - trading has temporarily ended. There is a possibility of policy adjustment on the supply side and an increase in infrastructure steel demand. The export is expected to remain resilient. The actual implementation effect of steel mill production restrictions needs to be tracked. The steel market fundamentals are showing signs of weakening, and there is short - term downward pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [9] Iron Ore - Port transactions have decreased significantly. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume at ports has decreased. Steel mills' iron water production has decreased, and inventories have decreased. The fundamentals have limited negative driving force, and the price is expected to oscillate after a slight decline [10] Scrap Steel - The supply and demand of scrap steel have increased significantly. The inventory has slightly accumulated, and the price is expected to follow the trend of finished products [11] Coke - The futures market is oscillating weakly, and the spot price has decreased. Coke production is temporarily stable, and demand is still strong. The supply - demand structure is tight, and price increases are accelerating. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [13][14] Coking Coal - After the macro - meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures market has declined significantly. The supply is slowly recovering, and demand is stable. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the short - term futures market is expected to be volatile [13][14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has declined weakly. The supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [18] Ferrosilicon - The futures price has declined significantly due to the weakening of market sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is resilient. The supply - demand relationship is healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals of the black building materials market remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate. It is expected that the policy direction will continue the previous strict control of incremental trends. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side for product prices [3]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Changes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-3.31%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85,034 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract decreased by 213,107 lots to 1.816026 million lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan/ton (-2.67%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57,772 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract decreased by 139,278 lots to 1.433936 million lots [2]. - **Market Conditions**: The export competitiveness has weakened, and this week's export volume has significantly declined. Rebar speculative demand has decreased significantly, resulting in inventory accumulation; hot - rolled coil demand has slightly increased, production has risen rapidly, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Changes**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 779.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.27% (-10.00), and the position changed by -32,551 lots to 419,600 lots. The weighted position was 942,000 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.99% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing, Australian shipments increasing, Brazilian shipments slightly declining, and non - mainstream country shipments falling to a low level this year. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 1.52 tons to 2.4071 million tons. Port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory slightly increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5,950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 194 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 5.19% at 5,696 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 6,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of 304 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Suggestion**: The short - term price fluctuations of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have intensified. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see. The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: On July 31, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 5.65% at 8,760 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 790 yuan/ton; the 421 market price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,150 yuan/ton, with a basis of 590 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Suggestion**: It is expected that the short - term price will maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals are still oversupplied, and enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 8 yuan to 1,267 yuan, and in Central China, it remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan. The national floating glass inventory decreased by 2.397 million heavy boxes to 59.499 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.87% month - on - month and 13.88% year - on - year. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term [16]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 60 yuan to 1,240 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 12,200 tons to 1.7958 million tons, an increase of 0.68%. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the new orders index dropping to 49.4, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [1] - The National Council meeting approved policies to implement personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies as part of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with significant pullbacks in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors, while the computer and communication sectors saw gains, with a market turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan [2][8] - The financing balance increased by 2.174 billion yuan to 1.970595 trillion yuan on July 30, indicating a growing interest in long-term capital allocation in the current low-risk interest rate environment [2][8] - The A-share market is viewed as having high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from technology innovation policies [2][8] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Glass futures continued to decline, with production enterprise inventories at 51.78 million heavy boxes, down 1.56 million boxes week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction and improved market expectations [3][13] - The pure soda ash futures also saw a decline, with inventories at 1.684 million tons, down 104,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting a similar trend of inventory digestion in the market [3][13] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a dip, while silver continued to decline, influenced by a divided stance within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [4][15] - The U.S. economic data showed resilience, with a rebound in CPI, and ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed to lower interest rates, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [4][15] Group 5: Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's renewable energy installed capacity increased by 268 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth of 99.3%, accounting for 91.5% of the new installed capacity [7] - The new energy storage installed capacity reached 94.91 million kilowatts, showing a growth of approximately 29% compared to the end of 2024 [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Glass Futures Daily Report, dated July 31, 2025 [2] - Report type: Commodity Research Institute's Energy and Chemical Research Report [1][8][15] - Researcher: Li Xuanyi [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - As market expectations for policies cool down, glass has gradually shifted to fundamental pricing. It is expected to have a weak short - term trend and give back the emotional premium. In the second half of the year, due to the rise in liquidity and cost floors, glass prices are unlikely to fall back to the June lows [7][9] Group 4: Summary of Each Section 4.1 Basic Data - **Spot Market**: On July 31, 2025, the prices of glass in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of Shahe Great Wall decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 1241 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, while the price of Hubei Great Plate remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton [3] - **Futures Market**: The prices of FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts all decreased on July 31, 2025. The main contract's open interest increased by 142,138 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 2,009,222 lots. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,700 lots [3] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts all increased, while the spreads such as FG01 - 05, FG05 - 09, and FG09 - 01 showed different changes [3] - **Fundamental Data**: Glass daily melting remained at 159,575 tons with no change week - on - week but a 6.0% year - on - year decrease. The start - up rate was 75% with no week - on - week change but a 9.7% year - on - year decrease. The inventory was 59.499 million heavy boxes, a 3.9% week - on - week decrease and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease. The profits from different fuels also changed, with the natural gas profit increasing by 10.7% week - on - week and the coal profit increasing by 7.1% week - on - week [3] 4.2 Market Analysis - **Market Conditions**: According to Longzhong statistics, the market price of Shahe Great Plate changed by - 8 yuan/ton to 1267 yuan/ton, the market price of Hubei Great Plate remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, the market price of Guangdong Great Plate remained unchanged at 1350 yuan/ton, and the market price of Zhejiang Great Plate remained unchanged at 1320 yuan/ton [5] - **Important Information**: The domestic float glass market prices showed mixed trends with average trading. In North China, the market was stable with a weak trend; in East China, prices were generally stable with minor fluctuations; in Central China, prices were stable; in South China, the mainstream prices were stable; in Southwest China, the prices of some white glass in Guizhou were raised. As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.55 days, a 2.7% month - on - month increase and a 1.55% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of July 2025, there were 296 float glass production lines in China with a daily capacity of 200,000 tons, and 222 were in production with a daily output of 159,600 tons. In July 2025, one production line was ignited and two were shut down. From July 25 - 31, 2025, the average weekly profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 150.36 yuan/ton, a 18.00 yuan/ton week - on - week increase; using coal - made gas was 138.14 yuan/ton, a 11.21 yuan/ton week - on - week increase; using petroleum coke was 137.71 yuan/ton, an 84.29 yuan/ton week - on - week increase. As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.499 million heavy boxes, a 2.397 million heavy - box week - on - week decrease and a 3.87% week - on - week decrease [6][7] - **Logic Analysis**: Some glass contracts hit the daily limit. As market expectations for policies cooled down, the prices of some related varieties decreased rapidly. Fundamentally, the daily glass output was 159,600 tons with a slight upward trend. On the demand side, the manufacturers' shipments weakened significantly, and the release of term - merchant supplies due to the decline in futures prices could form a negative feedback on the spot market. After the double - month upward trend, the inventories of middle and downstream were relatively sufficient, and the short - term restocking willingness was weak. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased week - on - week. With the increase in spot prices, the enterprise profits continued to recover, and the expected reduction in supply was postponed. As the market sentiment became rational, glass gradually shifted to fundamental pricing [7] 4.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The trend is weak, giving back the emotional premium [10] - **Arbitrage**: Reverse calendar spread arbitrage for glass 9 - 1 [10] - **Options**: Wait and see [10] 4.4 Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of glass basis, 9 - 1 spread, warehouse receipt quantity, main - contract open interest, main - contract trading volume, daily melting, manufacturer inventory, apparent demand, and profits using different fuels, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Longzhong Information [11][13][17][19][20][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face continuous pressure. It's recommended to short the soda ash main contract on rallies, and the current decline might not end [2]. - For glass, the probability of a correction has increased, but the decline is expected to be limited. It's also recommended to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main - contract closing price is 1,247 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan; glass main - contract closing price is 1,117 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main - contract trading volume is 974,024 lots, down 109,991 lots; glass main - contract trading volume is 142,138 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net long position is - 344,377 lots, down 14,009 lots; glass top 20 net long position is - 215,547 lots, down 19,125 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 1,500 tons, up 145 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 83 yuan, up 6 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is - 129 yuan, down 4 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 11 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; glass basis is 1 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,375 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,192 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 83.02%, down 1.08 percentage points; float - glass enterprise operating rate is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.89 million tons/year, up 0.11 million tons; glass in - production line number is 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.7836 million tons, down 81,000 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 61.896 million weight boxes, down 3.043 million weight boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Multiple important meetings and events took place, including the Politburo meeting, the meeting between Wang Yi and the US - China Business Council delegation, etc. Also, the central government will set up a "child - rearing subsidy fund" with a preliminary budget of about 90 billion yuan this year [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is ample, demand will decline, and prices will be under pressure. The decline is not over, and it's recommended to short on rallies [2]. - Glass: Supply shows signs of rigid production, and the industry profit has improved. However, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the probability of a correction has increased. It's recommended to short on rallies, but the decline amplitude is expected to be limited [2].