1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of a gradually loosening macro - environment, the long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged. In the short - term, the weak real demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [3]. - For iron ore, due to factors such as a decline in steel mill profits, an increase in iron - making production pressure, and an accumulation of port inventories, iron ore prices are under pressure. The overall terminal demand is weak, and macro - level disturbances continue, so the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, although the current real - world situation is not ideal, most of it has been priced in. Macro - level factors may be more important. The market is not pessimistic about the black sector, and it may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the black sector's trend [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, supply pressure persists, and it is likely to fluctuate with the overall commodity environment and consolidate in the short - term [14]. - For polysilicon, there are policy expectations, but real - world constraints also exist. The sustainability of high prices depends on whether the expectations can be substantively implemented [16]. - For glass, with high inventory levels and weak downstream demand, the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [19]. - For soda ash, in the context of weak supply and demand, insufficient cost and demand support, the market is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3037 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 277,451 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 2.004317 million lots, a decrease of 35,070 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3120 yuan/ton with no change, and in Shanghai it was 3200 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (- 0.46%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 118,411 tons, a decrease of 2694 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.496079 million lots, an increase of 16,084 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3240 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it was 3270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to have an important guiding significance for the macro - economic trend. Attention should also be paid to the meeting's stance and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. - Fundamentally, rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a slight reduction in inventory, but overall demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, post - holiday demand also increased, but the inventory level was still high, and the fundamental contradiction was prominent, with the coil - rebar spread continuing to narrow [3]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 771.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.32% (- 2.50), and the open interest increased by 9848 lots to 545,400 lots. The weighted open interest was 905,400 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.75% [5]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased slightly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries remained stable. The near - term arrival volume increased to a high level in the same period. - Demand: The latest average daily pig iron production was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 million tons. There were both blast furnace restarts and overhauls, and some blast furnaces began overhauls due to profit declines. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. - Terminal: The inventory pressure of sheet metal remained high, and the structural contradiction within the finished products still existed. Overall, iron ore prices were under pressure, and the short - term commodity environment was still under pressure. If a new round of economic and trade consultations is initiated, market sentiment may improve [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On October 17, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 0.63% at 5718 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the delivery - equivalent price of 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 152 yuan/ton over the futures. - The silicon iron main contract (SF601) closed down 0.48% at 5430 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a premium of 170 yuan/ton over the futures [8][9]. Strategy Viewpoints - The short - term real - world demand pressure on prices has been reflected in the market. Macro - level factors such as important meetings may be more important. Although the current real - world situation is not ideal, it has mostly been priced in. - The market is not pessimistic about the black sector. It may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon's potential driver may come from the manganese ore end, and silicon iron is likely to follow the black sector's trend with low operational cost - effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 8430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.03% (- 175). The weighted contract open interest increased by 12,173 lots to 442,119 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 870 yuan/ton for the main contract. The price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis for the main contract after conversion was 470 yuan/ton [13]. Strategy Viewpoints - The industrial silicon price fluctuated lower. Supply showed a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", with an overall increase in weekly production. Demand was under pressure, and cost factors provided some support. It was likely to fluctuate with the overall commodity environment and consolidate in the short - term [14]. Polysilicon Market Information - The main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52,340 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.45% (- 235). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 1633 lots to 276,945 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.25 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.8 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of 460 yuan/ton for the main contract [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - There were policy expectations for polysilicon, and the contract price rebounded. However, real - world constraints still existed, with an unexpected increase in production scheduling in October, a decrease in downstream silicon wafer production scheduling, and continuous inventory accumulation pressure. The sustainability of high prices depends on whether the expectations can be substantively implemented [16]. Glass Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1147 yuan/ton on Friday, an increase of 1.59% (+ 18). The quoted price of large - sized glass in North China was 1180 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1200 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 64.2756 million cases, an increase of 1.4516 million cases (+ 2.31%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 53,303 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 117,133 lots [18]. Strategy Viewpoints - Float glass factories had high inventory levels and faced great pressure to sell. Traders mainly focused on stabilizing prices and reducing inventory. The market lacked substantial positive support, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The market was expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [19]. Soda Ash Market Information - The soda ash main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton on Friday, an increase of 0.24% (+ 3). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1165 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7005 million tons, an increase of 40,700 tons (+ 2.31%), including an increase of 20,000 tons in heavy soda ash inventory and 20,700 tons in light soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 11,705 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 31,185 lots [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market continued to be weak and stable, with the price center basically unchanged. The industry's fundamentals had not improved substantially, and the supply - demand pattern remained loose, with enterprises generally in a loss - making state. Supply pressure was difficult to relieve quickly, and demand was weak. The market was expected to continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term [21].

Core Insights - The "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025-2026)" aims to promote the stable operation and structural optimization of the building materials industry, accelerating high-quality development [1] Group 1: Growth Targets and Industry Management - The plan sets a target for the green building materials industry to exceed 300 billion yuan in revenue by 2026, with an expected revenue of 210 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 10% [2] - The first measure emphasizes strengthening industry management to promote the survival of the fittest, addressing the structural contradictions in supply and demand that have affected stable development [2][4] - The plan includes strict capacity control for cement and glass production, aiming to align actual capacity with registered capacity and enhance the dynamic adjustment capability of supply and demand [2][4] Group 2: Traditional and Emerging Industries - The plan promotes the green low-carbon transformation and digitalization of traditional building materials industries to stabilize the growth foundation [3] - It also aims to cultivate advanced inorganic non-metallic materials and specialty mineral resources, enhancing new growth momentum for the industry [3] - The adjustment of the building materials industry structure and demand upgrades will create new market opportunities, particularly in industrial sectors and urban renewal projects [3] Group 3: Challenges and Policy Support - The building materials industry has faced significant growth pressures, with economic benefits declining from 2022 to 2024, particularly in the cement and flat glass sectors [4][5] - The plan prohibits the addition of new cement clinker and flat glass capacity, requiring capacity replacement plans for new and renovated projects to control production and optimize industry structure [4][6] - The cement industry is entering a new adjustment cycle, with a need for capacity replacement to align actual production with registered capacity, promoting high-quality development [5][6] Group 4: Glass Industry and Technological Innovation - The glass industry faces challenges such as unreasonable capacity structure and fluctuating market demand, particularly affected by the real estate market downturn [7] - The plan outlines pathways for stable growth in the glass industry, encouraging technological upgrades and the development of high-performance glass products to enhance market competitiveness [7] - Companies are urged to explore new profit growth points and expand into overseas markets while consolidating their domestic market presence [7][8] Group 5: Implementation and Future Directions - China National Building Material Group is committed to implementing capacity control policies and has completed the exit of over 200 inefficient production lines during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [8] - The group aims to transform its scale advantage into quality and efficiency advantages, focusing on new materials and diversified growth strategies [8] - The company plans to fully implement the directives of the "Work Plan" to create a comprehensive industry matrix of inorganic, organic, and composite materials [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the expected increase in domestic demand driven by the 14th Five-Year Plan and renewed tariff conflicts, suggesting a focus on sectors with strong price-driving capabilities and industry self-discipline [6] - Cement prices have shown a slight decline, while float glass prices continue to rise, indicating mixed market conditions [2] - The report highlights the resilience of companies like Sanke Tree and the potential for growth in new business areas such as fire safety technology and specialty electronic fabrics [6][7] Summary by Sections Cement Market - The national average cement price is 347 RMB/ton, down 0.7% from the previous week, with price increases observed in Hunan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi [2][24] - The report notes that the average shipment rate for key cement enterprises is 45.2%, indicating a slight increase [24] Float Glass and Photovoltaic Glass - The average price of float glass is 1300.97 RMB/ton, up 0.87% from the previous week, while photovoltaic glass prices remain stable [2] - The report mentions that the price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is around 13 RMB/sqm, unchanged from the previous week [2] Real Estate Transactions - In the 42nd week, new home transaction area in 30 major cities was 211.75 million sqm, down 20% year-on-year but up 107.52% month-on-month [3][19] - The report indicates that second-hand home transactions in 15 monitored cities also improved month-on-month, with a 14% year-on-year increase in cumulative transaction area [3][19] Recommended Companies - Companies recommended include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, benefiting from cost and scale advantages [6] - The report also highlights the strong performance of Sanke Tree, which achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion RMB, up 2.7% year-on-year, and a net profit increase of 81.2% [6][7] - Fire safety leader Qingniao Fire is recommended due to its upcoming commercialization of fire robots and compliance with new national standards [6][7] - The report suggests investment in China Jushi and China National Materials Technology, which are expected to benefit from high demand for specialty electronic fabrics [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - This week, Sino-US trade frictions have been fluctuating, with the SCFI continuing to rise. In the short term, Sino-US relations may ease, creating opportunities for high-level meetings between the two sides [2]. - Real estate sales are weak, and the "Silver October" is lackluster, partly due to the high base caused by the "924 New Policy" last year [2]. - The prices of rebar and cement continue to decline. Weak demand remains the key factor restricting the recovery of spot prices. In the futures market, coking coal and coke led the rise in domestic commodity futures on Friday night, and safety supervision has some impact on the supply side [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales - This week, real estate sales remained weak after the holiday. The new home sales area in 20 cities tracked by Wind increased by 269.58% week-on-week but decreased by 21.66% year-on-year. New home sales in all tiers of cities were significantly stronger than the previous period but still weak compared to the same period last year, with first-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities showing a large decline in new home sales area compared to last year [3][8]. - Looking at key cities, new home sales increased significantly week-on-week, with notable increases in Shenzhen (567.67%) and Suzhou (419.10%). However, new home sales area in all cities was significantly lower than the same period last year [14]. - Second-hand home sales also increased significantly week-on-week, with the decline narrowing year-on-year. In key cities, second-hand home sales area increased significantly week-on-week, with significant increases in Beijing (582.88%) and Shenzhen (573.7%). However, second-hand home sales area in all key cities decreased compared to the same period last year [25]. 2. Investment - In terms of investment, most commodity prices declined this week. Rebar prices, glass futures prices, asphalt prices, and cement prices all decreased [34]. 3. Production - In terms of production, most operating rates increased this week. The PTA operating rate decreased, while the operating rate of automobile tires increased significantly, and the operating rates of petroleum asphalt, polyester filament, coking enterprises, and steel blast furnaces remained basically flat [44]. 4. Consumption - In terms of consumption, the momentum of travel was strong. Subway ridership, domestic flights, and automobile consumption were above seasonal levels, while movie box office was below seasonal levels [52]. 5. Exports - In terms of exports, the SCFI index increased significantly this week, the BDI index increased, and the CRB spot index decreased slightly [59]. 6. Prices - In terms of prices, pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased, and oil prices decreased. Rebar prices also decreased [63].

Group 1 - Dong Yuhui's live streaming sales during "Double 11" reached over 300 million yuan in three days, with nearly 70 million views [2] - The new account "Lanzhichunxu" launched by Dong Yuhui's team also participated in the "Double 11" pre-sale events [2] Group 2 - The Dutch government intervened in the operations of Anshi Semiconductor, a subsidiary of Wentai Technology, raising concerns from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association about potential disruptions in chip supply affecting the automotive industry [3] - Wentai Technology criticized the Dutch government's actions as excessive interference based on geopolitical biases rather than factual risk assessments [3] Group 3 - The Shanghai Auntie tea brand introduced a drink package that includes a uterus-shaped toy, which has sparked controversy regarding its appropriateness and potential educational value [4][5] - The brand's response to the backlash was deemed insincere, highlighting the need for reflection on the product's messaging [5] Group 4 - Li Feifei's team released a new model called RTFM, which operates in real-time and can run on a single H100 GPU [6] Group 5 - The China Consumers Association reported over 20 million consumer rights protection messages during the "National Day" holiday, with major issues in accommodation, safety management, and scenic area services [7] - Domestic travel during the holiday reached 888 million trips, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, an increase of 108.2 billion yuan compared to the previous year [7] Group 6 - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports unexpectedly grew by 6.9% after two months of decline, contrasting with a revised 11.5% drop in August [8] Group 7 - The final ruling in the unfair competition case between Yili and Mengniu resulted in Mengniu being ordered to pay 5 million yuan in damages to Yili [9] Group 8 - Huatai Securities highlighted a new action plan for electric vehicle charging infrastructure aiming to double service capacity by 2027, with a target of 28 million charging facilities and over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity [10] - This initiative is expected to accelerate the construction of charging stations and benefit related industries [10] Group 9 - Banks, including China Construction Bank, are tightening controls on credit card overpayments to prevent illegal activities such as fraud and money laundering [11] - The industry is enhancing risk management measures for credit cards, encouraging responsible usage among cardholders [11] Group 10 - Tongchen Beijian responded to workplace bullying allegations, stating that their investigation found no evidence of repeated or malicious behavior by the accused [12] Group 11 - Cao Dewang announced his retirement as chairman of Fuyao Glass, expressing that stepping down would benefit the company and allow new leadership to take over [13][14] Group 12 - Sanhua Intelligent Controls faced stock price fluctuations due to false rumors about securing a large robot order, leading to a significant market reaction and subsequent clarification from the company [15]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]

Sector Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook of "oscillation" for various products in the black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [8][9][10]. Core Views - The current fundamentals reflected by yesterday's steel inventory data are better than before, and the prices of sector products showed a trend of first falling and then rising during the day. At night, high hot metal production still supports the demand for furnace materials, but the increasing inventory pressure of iron ore makes its price under pressure, while coke and coking coal prices are relatively strong due to further inventory reduction [2][3]. - Recently, the de - stocking of steel and the high level of hot metal production have temporarily alleviated the market's concerns about the negative feedback of the industrial chain, but further price increases depend on the continuous improvement of fundamentals. There are still optimistic expectations for the upcoming domestic major conference [4]. Summary by Product Steel - Core Logic: Spot market transactions are generally weak, but improved compared to yesterday. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, and iron - water production has slightly decreased at a high level. After the National Day, the demand for five major steel products has recovered to some extent, but the recovery height is limited. The inventory of five major steel products has decreased after the festival, but the de - stocking speed is slower than the same period last year, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is still accumulating [8]. - Outlook: The recovery of post - festival demand is limited, and the steel inventory is at a moderately high level, with fundamental pressure still existing. However, there may be positive signals from the major conference at the end of October, and the cost side still has some support under the high hot - metal background. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate at a low level [8]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port transactions decreased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The demand for iron ore still has support under high hot - metal production, but the market's expectation of weakening hot - metal production has increased. The port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore still has support, but the overall pressure is not prominent. There are still macro - expectation disturbances before the important conference, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations restricts the upside space. It is expected that the iron - ore price will oscillate in the short term [9]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has recovered to the pre - festival level, and the demand has increased slightly due to the resumption of some electric furnaces after the festival. Steel enterprises have slightly increased their inventory, and the available days of inventory have increased significantly [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the current pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the scrap - steel price will follow the finished - product price in the short term [10]. Coke - Core Logic: The futures price of coke oscillated strongly. The supply has tightened due to factors such as weak coking profits and enterprise maintenance. The demand has weakened slightly with the decline of hot - metal production, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month [12]. - Outlook: Although there is an expectation of weakening hot - metal production, it is still strong in the short term. The coke supply is difficult to increase, and the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. However, due to the weak steel price, the price increase is difficult to implement. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [12]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The coking - coal futures price oscillated strongly. The overall supply is stable, and the import volume from Mongolia has returned to normal. The demand for coking coal still has short - term rigid support, and the overall inventory is at a low level [13]. - Outlook: The incremental space for coal mine production is limited, and the sustainability of Mongolian coal imports remains to be observed. The coking - coal price is expected to be supported in the short term due to strong policy expectations [13]. Glass - Core Logic: The market is worried about the supply disruption in Shahe, and the cost may increase after the gas conversion. The demand has weakened, and the inventory has accumulated. The upstream manufacturers are under pressure to reduce prices [14]. - Outlook: The spot sales are weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply is at a moderately high level, and the demand for heavy soda ash is stable and improving, while the demand for light soda ash has weakened significantly. The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the cost support has been strengthened [16]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the soda - ash price will oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and some manufacturers' inventories are accumulating, suppressing the price. The cost of port ores is weak, and the demand has some resilience. The production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the price center may decline after the peak season due to pessimistic supply - demand expectations [17]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost - support expectation has been strengthened, and the supply pressure has accumulated. The demand from steel mills and the metal - magnesium industry has different trends [18]. - Outlook: In the short term, peak demand season, policy expectations, and strong costs support the price, but there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season due to the loosening supply - demand relationship [18].

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 17 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 基本面来看，供应回落，库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - The glass industry is in a stage of oversupply, and it is necessary to reduce prices, compress profits, and cut production to ease industry contradictions. Suggest paying attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and subsequent changes in production lines on the supply side [1]. - The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains prominent, with increasing supply pressure and relatively stable demand. There is a large pressure for inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to changes in soda ash supply and downstream demand [1]. - The losses of silicomanganese enterprises are intensifying, and both production and operating rates have declined. The demand from downstream maintains resilience, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. Future attention should be paid to changes in manganese ore cost support and regional policies [3]. - With the continuous compression of steel mill profits, the motivation for ferrosilicon production increase is insufficient. The downstream demand maintains resilience, the industry's supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. Follow - up attention should be paid to cost support, electricity price changes, and industrial policies [3]. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass futures market oscillated narrowly. Downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for rigid demand. This week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 76.35%, a 0.35% increase from the previous week, and the manufacturer's inventory was 64.276 million heavy boxes, a 2.39% increase from the previous week, showing obvious inventory accumulation [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market oscillated. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid replenishment. This week, the soda ash output was 740,500 tons, a 3.93% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory slightly increased to 1.7005 million tons [1]. Double Silicon - **Silicomanganese**: The main contract of silicomanganese futures first rose and then fell, closing at 5,754 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase from the previous day. The final pricing of mainstream steel tenders was still under negotiation. The price in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures oscillated upward, closing at 5,456 yuan/ton, a 1.94% increase from the previous day. The market sentiment was average, waiting for the standard set by Hebei Iron and Steel to guide the market. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,100 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,800 - 6,100 yuan/ton [3]. Strategies - **Glass**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillating [2] - **Silicomanganese**: Oscillating [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillating [4] - **Inter - period**: None [2] - **Inter - variety**: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and the remarks of multiple Fed officials have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and multiple industry stabilization and growth plans have been introduced, increasing policy support and boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. In terms of assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; among commodity sectors, black is short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and Fed officials' remarks have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and policies have increased support, boosting risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, black is short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as coal, banking, insurance, and port shipping, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the acceleration of domestic economic growth and the increase in policy support, risk appetite has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market continued to rise. With the increase in risk aversion and the expectation of Fed rate cuts, spot gold reached a record high. Short - term, precious metals are strongly running, and the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term, long positions can be held or reduced on rallies; medium - and long - term, buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was weak on Thursday, but the futures price rebounded slightly. Market expectations have improved due to the approaching Fourth Plenary Session and expectations for the APEC meeting. The real demand has improved marginally, and steel supply may decline stage - by - stage. The steel market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, while the futures price declined. Iron production is still high, and steel mills' restocking has ended. With the narrowing of profits, the willingness to cut production may increase. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded from the bottom. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased due to the decline in steel production. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the Lanzhou charcoal market is stable. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly in a range. Supply has increased marginally, and there is an expectation of anti - involution, forming a bottom support. Demand has improved marginally during the traditional peak season but is currently slowing down. It is expected to run weakly in a short - term range [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: From January to September, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. Copper social inventory is at a relatively high level. The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be high in 2026. The US economy has uncertainties, which are potential risk points. In the short - and medium - term, domestic electrolytic copper production is high, demand is facing a test, and de - stocking is less than expected [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, aluminum prices were strong. Aluminum social inventory decreased significantly, and aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The smelting profit is high, supply is rigid, imports are high, and demand is weakening marginally. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [12]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tightening globally. The demand has improved slightly but remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with support from low smelting start - up and peak - season expectations, but the upside is limited by high - price consumption suppression and macro risks [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's statement about meeting with Putin and the upcoming high - level Sino - US and Russia - US talks have raised expectations of increased Russian oil supply. Western sanctions and Sino - US trade tensions have also affected demand. Crude oil prices are expected to decline [14]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices test support, the probability of asphalt breaking through support has increased. Demand is nearing the end, inventory pressure is increasing, and it is difficult for asphalt to have a strong upward drive [14][15]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly. Production has reached a new high, and the 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt digestion. It is expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly due to rumors of storage and capacity regulation [14]. - **PX**: PX is weakly oscillating. Although it gets some demand support from PTA's high - start, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector [15]. - **PTA**: After the decline of crude oil prices, polyester is in a low - level oscillation. Downstream demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is increasing. PTA prices will continue to run weakly [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The sentiment of ethylene glycol is weak. Port inventory is rising, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. It is expected to continue to be in an oversupply situation in late October [16]. - **PP**: The PP market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. New capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and the price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: The supply of LLDPE is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is rising slightly. It is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and its future trend depends on the implementation of export policies [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the CBOT November soybean contract rose. Strong domestic demand offset trade concerns, and the September soybean crushing volume reached a record high [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the start - up rate returned to normal. However, the oil mill inventory is under pressure, and the fourth - quarter soybean supply may be loose. Without guidance from US soybeans, it may oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade dynamics for rapeseed meal [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: With the visit of the Canadian foreign minister, the short - term risk of rapeseed oil has decreased. Soybean oil prices may be relatively weak due to inventory pressure [21]. - **Palm Oil**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle. In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, suppressing prices, but exports also increased, providing some support [21]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has increased, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices to a record low. Although there are signs of second - fattening, the quantity is small. With the decrease in temperature and the recovery of consumption, pig prices may stabilize [21][22].