2026 年 2 月 6 日 集运指数（欧线）：宣涨预期再起 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2602 | 1,737.8 | 0.20% | 9 7 | 1,826 | -57 | 0.05 | 0.33 | | | EC2604 | 1,247.6 | 2.20% | 24,199 | 32,761 | -1,468 | 0.74 | 0.86 | | | EC2606 | 1,534.0 | 0.70% | 3,370 | 14,222 | 764 | 0.24 | 0.23 | | | | 本 期 | | 2026/2/2 | | 单 位 | | 周涨幅 | | ...

在功能产业提档升级方面，督促企业主动服务国家和省市重大战略，积极承担并实施好新型工业化强 市、北方内河航运中心、世界文化旅游名城、乡村振兴等领域重点项目。围绕我市加快构建更加完善的 公路、铁路、港口、航运、水利等现代基础设施体系，推动企业增强建设运营与综合服务能力。 在对外合作实现突破方面，统筹市管企业资源资本优势，加大招商引资工作力度，重点围绕京津冀、长 三角、大湾区等地区，加强与央企省企、知名民企、科研院所等合资合作，积极引进一批优质项目，延 伸拉长产业链条，实现合作共赢、融合发展。 在新兴产业培育壮大方面，着眼产业链延伸和价值提升，推动企业加强产业基础能力建设，培育壮大战 略性新兴产业，发展成为重要支柱产业，多渠道开展投资融资、产业培育、资本整合，助力培育新的利 润增长点。 在未来产业超前布局方面，遵循科技创新及产业发展规律，指导企业融合资本、人才、技术、数据要 素，积极融入创新网络，加快布局人工智能、算力、低空经济等未来产业，为建设现代化产业体系提供 新动力。 "十五五"开局的关键节点，济宁市国资委锚定高质量发展目标，在推动市管企业产业布局优化与结构升 级上，绘就了清晰而坚定的发展蓝图。 "'十五五' ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly released "Implementation Details for the Subsidy of Scrapping and Updating Old Operating Vessels in the Transportation Industry (Revised Version)" emphasizes the transition towards greener shipping by prioritizing LNG-powered vessels and introducing significant adjustments to the subsidy mechanism [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The policy sets a clear timeline from August 2, 2024, to December 31, 2028, for the scrapping and updating of old Chinese operating vessels [2]. - A dedicated subsidy channel is established for new energy vessels using LNG as a single fuel or in dual-fuel configurations, providing unprecedented flexibility for shipowners [2][3]. - The new guidelines allow for independent subsidy applications for LNG vessels under specific conditions, reducing the barriers and costs for fleet updates [2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - A significant portion of China's existing operating vessels are over 15 years old, which are less efficient and have higher carbon emissions, highlighting the urgency for green transformation in the shipping industry [2]. - The introduction of the subsidy policy is seen as a crucial measure to address industry pain points by incentivizing the retirement of high-energy-consuming vessels in favor of cleaner alternatives [2]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Technological Advancements - The global LNG shipping market is expected to see a 60% increase in demand by 2040, with potential vessel shortages as early as 2026 [3]. - Chinese shipyards are prepared to meet this demand, with LNG vessel orders extending to 2031, and advancements have halved the average construction time from 30 months to 15 months [3]. - The domestic production rate of LNG dual-fuel engines is nearing 80%, contributing to cost advantages and supply chain security for the industry [3]. Group 4: Infrastructure Development - The utilization rate of LNG receiving stations is projected to decline to 48% by 2030 before rising to approximately 59% by 2035, indicating a need for infrastructure development to match market demand [5]. - The "last mile" challenge for LNG refueling infrastructure remains, as specialized facilities are required for ship refueling, and current coverage is insufficient [6]. - The market is evolving with increased participation from social capital, moving away from a model dominated by the "Big Three" oil companies, leading to a more competitive and dynamic ecosystem [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of optimizing the consumer environment in China as a key strategy to boost consumption and economic development [1][2][3] - The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has launched a three-year action plan to enhance the consumer environment, which has already shown preliminary results [1] - In 2025, SAMR received 26.46 million complaints and reports, recovering economic losses of 4.35 billion yuan for consumers, and recalled 8.236 million consumer goods [1] Group 2 - SAMR plans to establish "reassuring consumption" zones and develop related standards and policies to create trustworthy markets and scenic areas for consumers [2] - The focus will be on enhancing traditional industries and promoting high-quality service sector development, addressing new consumer demands for safety, quality, and sustainability [2] - In 2025, SAMR will conduct special actions to rectify the abuse of power and limit competition, with a significant increase in the number of cases investigated and resolved [3] Group 3 - The SAMR is responsible for antitrust reviews of mergers and acquisitions, balancing support for resource consolidation with the prevention of monopolies [4] - In 2025, SAMR reviewed 706 merger cases, a 9.8% increase year-on-year, with 83% of cases concluded within 30 days [4] - The agency aims to enhance the efficiency and quality of merger reviews while ensuring market competition and protecting supply chain security [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenues on a TCE basis of $118 million and adjusted EBITDA of $95 million, with net income at $66 million, equating to $0.41 per share [3][4] - For the full year 2025, revenues on a TCE basis totaled $369 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $278 million and net income of $211 million, or $1.31 per share [4][5] - The company reported a total liquidity of $189 million at the end of Q4, consisting of $79 million in cash and $110.5 million available under revolving credit facilities [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average daily earnings for vessels trading in the spot market were $69,500, while those on time charters earned $49,400, leading to an average combined TCE of $60,300 per day for the quarter [4] - The company generated $95.3 million in EBITDA from operations, with $97.6 million deployed towards vessels during the quarter, including the delivery of DHT Nokota [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The current sailing VLCC fleet is estimated at 897 ships, with 46% expected to be older than 15 years by the end of the year [15] - The sanctioned VLCC fleet counts 151 vessels, with discussions ongoing about whether these can reenter the compliant market [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to divest three older ships built in 2007 to modernize its fleet, replacing them with new vessels from its building program [9][10] - The company is increasing its spot market exposure by reducing fixed income contracts, anticipating that this will allow participation in rewarding spot markets [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the structural transformation of the VLCC market, driven by strong demand, geopolitical volatility, and fleet consolidation [21] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics, with a solid fleet and a clear mandate to return earnings to shareholders [21] Other Important Information - The board approved a dividend of $0.41 per share for Q4 2025, marking the 64th consecutive quarterly cash dividend [12] - The company expects to book a combined gain of about $60 million from the sale of DHT China and DHT Europe in the first quarter [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help reconcile the commentary about consolidation and increasing spot exposure? - Management confirmed that all end users are now in the market to secure time charters, with rates above previous terms, indicating a strong time charter market [23][24] Question: What is the outlook on global oil demand growth? - Management noted that while global oil demand growth is stabilizing around 1%, seaborne crude oil transportation demand is expected to grow at approximately 2.5% [27][29] Question: How does the company view the consolidation of the fleet? - Management believes that the consolidation of the fleet will change market dynamics, particularly in pricing behavior and information flow [39] Question: What is the company's stance on newbuild prices and potential investments? - Management indicated that while they are open to considering newbuilds, they are currently cautious due to high prices and are focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet [69][71]

Core Viewpoint - The company is adopting a "phasing out the old and building the new + green intelligence" strategy for fleet renewal, focusing on low-carbon and smart new energy vessels while disposing of outdated and inefficient ships [2] Group 1: Fleet Renewal Strategy - The company plans to deliver 6 new ships by 2026, adding nearly 500,000 deadweight tons of capacity, with over 30% of the fleet being green capacity [2] - The average age of the fleet is currently 7 years, which is below the industry average [2] Group 2: Ship Type Planning - The ship type planning focuses on dry bulk core, primarily using Panamax vessels while also considering handy size [2] - The new additions include 63,500-ton low-carbon smart bulk carriers and 89,000-ton methanol dual-fuel bulk carriers, suitable for transporting bulk commodities like grain and iron ore [2] - Some new ships are designed with the capability for future methanol dual-fuel retrofitting, allowing for fuel transition [2] Group 3: Emission Reduction Initiatives - The company implements a "dual-wheel drive" approach for carbon reduction, focusing on "energy efficiency improvement + fuel transition," with new ships featuring reduced fuel consumption and meeting emission standards [2] - Four new ships are equipped with methanol dual-fuel main engines to hedge against carbon cost impacts [2] - The company is also advancing environmental retrofitting of existing vessels to comply with IMO emission reduction regulations and EU carbon tax [2] Group 4: Technological Innovations - The company is building an intelligent shipping platform and a Maritime Operations System (MOS) to optimize route planning and enhance operational efficiency [2] - Exploration of innovative scenarios such as drone maritime applications is also underway [2]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网2月5日讯 ，国航远洋在接受调研者提问时表示，2026年干散货航运将呈"需求增长、供给偏 紧、运价上行"态势。需求端，全球干散货贸易量持续增长，西芒杜铁矿石长航程拉动吨海里需求，粮 食、有色矿产需求也助推运价。供给端，2025年新船订单创五年新低，船队老龄化与IMO能效监管趋 严，新增运力释放放缓。在2025年淘汰老旧船的基础上，2026年公司表现可期，已投运1艘6.35万载重 吨低碳智能散货船，全年将交付6艘新船（2艘6.35万吨低碳智能、4艘8.9万吨甲醇双燃料），新增运力 近50万载重吨，主力服务欧美及东亚粮食、矿石航线。新船单船油耗低、EEDI达IMO最高要求，契合 减排新规，助力锁定优质客户、提升盈利，同时深化数字化运营，动态优化航线，提升周转率与毛利 率。广大投资者还应密切关注行业周期性及运价波动等多重市场风险，且公司预计经营情况不代表最终 实际经营情况，敬请审慎做出投资决策，切实防范投资风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Tianhong CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159281) experienced a slight decline of 0.39% in its closing price on February 5, with a trading volume of 67.03 million yuan [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Tianhong CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF was established on August 20, 2025, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of February 4, 2025, the fund had a total of 344 million shares and a total size of 350 million yuan, showing a decrease of 2.82% in shares and a decrease of 0.01% in size since December 31, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Performance - Over the last 20 trading days, the Tianhong ETF recorded a cumulative trading amount of 1.084 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 54.18 million yuan [1]. - The current fund manager, He Yuxuan, has managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 2.85% during the management period [1]. Group 3: Top Holdings - The top holdings of the Tianhong ETF include: - COSCO Shipping Holdings (4.11% holding, 1.441 million yuan market value) [2] - China Shenhua Energy (2.68% holding, 939.20 thousand yuan market value) [2] - CNOOC (2.56% holding, 898.44 thousand yuan market value) [2] - Sinopec Engineering (2.56% holding, 895.97 thousand yuan market value) [2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (2.52% holding, 882.26 thousand yuan market value) [2] - China Merchants Energy Shipping (2.45% holding, 857.72 thousand yuan market value) [2] - PetroChina (2.37% holding, 829.56 thousand yuan market value) [2] - China Coal Energy (2.37% holding, 829.50 thousand yuan market value) [2] - CITIC International (2.34% holding, 819.88 thousand yuan market value) [2] - China Construction Bank (2.28% holding, 797.37 thousand yuan market value) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the "Modern Capital Urban Circle Spatial Collaborative Planning (2023-2035)" marks a new phase in the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, aiming to build a world-class urban circle [1] Group 1: Strategic Goals - Tianjin aims to leverage the strategy of promoting coordinated development with Beijing as a primary focus, transitioning from a "defensive" role to a "frontline" position in enhancing its competitiveness [1] - The planning outlines a spatial structure of "one core, two wings, dual cities, multiple points, dual corridors, and multiple circles," emphasizing high-quality development in the Beijing-Tianjin urban relationship [1] Group 2: Industrial Innovation - The planning proposes a "two corridors, four belts" industrial collaborative innovation framework, positioning the "Beijing-Tianjin Corridor" as a hub for intellectual density and open innovation [2] - Tianjin is embedding itself into the innovation network centered around Beijing, accelerating the "Beijing R&D, Tianjin transformation" model, particularly in emerging industries like biomedicine and aerospace [2] Group 3: Transportation Hub - The planning emphasizes the construction of "eight corridors and two rings" for transportation, solidifying Tianjin's role as a maritime gateway and comprehensive transportation hub for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [2] - The designation of Tianjin as the "Northern International Shipping Core Area" aims to elevate Tianjin Port to a first-class smart and green port, enhancing economic activity through integrated logistics and trade [2] Group 4: Urban Functionality - The planning integrates Tianjin's central urban area and Binhai New Area into the capital urban circle's "functional circle," promoting internal and external functional collaboration [3] - Tianjin is set to enhance public services and business environments, thereby increasing its overall urban capacity and attractiveness [3] Group 5: Action Pathways - Tianjin's "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a clear action path focused on integrating into the three major "circles" of the capital urban area, enhancing collaborative interfaces in industrial, commuting, and functional spheres [3][4] - The city aims to strengthen its unique advantages by developing a world-class smart green port and modern industrial systems, while also fostering financial services related to aircraft and ship leasing [3] Group 6: Soft Connectivity - The planning encourages "soft connectivity" with Beijing and Hebei in terms of rules, standards, and administrative services, facilitating cross-province operations [4] - The transition from "physical docking" to "institutional integration" is expected to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation within the urban circle [4]

Core Viewpoint - European stock markets faced significant declines due to disappointing earnings reports from major companies across various sectors, leading to a negative market sentiment [1] Shipping Industry - Global shipping giant Maersk's stock plummeted by 7% after the company warned of deteriorating freight rates as the Red Sea routes reopen, with profit expectations for this year being slashed to between $4.5 billion and $7 billion, significantly lower than the $9.53 billion recorded in 2025 and below analysts' average estimate of $5.76 billion [4] - Maersk plans to focus on cost discipline, including cutting 1,000 jobs, which represents 15% of its corporate functions but less than 1% of total employees, with expected annual cost savings of $180 million [4] - The global container trade growth rate is projected to be between 2% and 4% this year, amidst a backdrop of significant supply pressure with nearly 7 million TEUs of capacity scheduled for delivery in the coming years, accounting for about 20% of the current global fleet [4] Automotive Industry - Volvo's stock fell by 14% after reporting disappointing fourth-quarter earnings, with an EBIT margin of only 2%, impacted by tariffs, increased discounts, and a strong Swedish Krona [5] - The CEO of Volvo highlighted the challenges posed by the cancellation of electric vehicle incentives in the U.S. and the need to adjust production to comply with EU tariffs on electric vehicle manufacturing [5] - Despite last year's poor performance, Volvo aims for higher sales and free cash flow by 2026, with new models like the EX60 electric SUV seen as crucial to its turnaround efforts [5] Telecommunications Industry - Vodafone's organic service revenue growth of 5.4% fell short of analysts' expectations of 6.03%, with the German market showing only a 0.7% increase, below the anticipated 1.02% [6] - The competitive landscape continues to pressure Vodafone's performance, with the UK market experiencing a 0.5% decline in organic service revenue, contrasting with the expected growth of 1.59% [6] - The CEO's ambitious transformation plan, which includes simplifying operations and divesting assets, has yet to yield significant recovery in core market growth [6]