2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 24 日 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | -16.0 | -2.10% | | | I2605 | | 746.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of technological elements showcased during the Spring Festival Gala on the A-share market, particularly in driving short-term sentiment and reinforcing long-term industry trends, especially in the robotics sector [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the Spring Festival Gala serves as a "stock selection guide," indicating strong performance in technology-related sectors post-festival, with a focus on companies with strong earnings certainty [3][4] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is expected to improve post-festival, with analysts predicting a new upward trend driven by favorable policies and market conditions [5][6] Group 2 - The Spring Festival Gala featured significant technological elements, including robots, AI applications, and large-scale drone shows, which are expected to influence investor sentiment and market performance [3][4] - Analysts believe that the upcoming period will see a shift towards sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery, with a focus on materials, chemicals, and technology [6] - There is an emphasis on the importance of individual stock performance over broad market indices, suggesting a "light index, heavy stock" strategy for investors [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as overseas market fluctuations, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations to offer investment suggestions for each market segment. For instance, the stock index futures are expected to be in a structural market, while the bond market is influenced by factors like financial data and "Two Sessions" policies [19][20][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas market volatility during the Spring Festival holiday may affect the A - share market. The tariff rulings and subsequent tariff increase announcements in the US have caused market expectation chaos. The rise in oil and silver prices may stimulate the oil and gas, precious metals, and AI application sectors. The M1 - M2 spread narrowing is beneficial for market liquidity. The stock index is expected to be oscillating strongly, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices remaining strong. Suggested trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM\IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads for options [19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The January domestic financial data shows that the money supply is stronger than the financing demand, and the holiday high - frequency consumption data is also divided. Overseas tariff policies are uncertain. The central bank's attitude to protect market liquidity is clear, which is favorable for the bond market. However, as the "Two Sessions" approach, bond market sentiment may become cautious. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions in TS contracts and wait and see for arbitrage [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. The impact of origin weather on production is limited, and the Brazilian export volume has increased. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short at high prices [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price rose during the Spring Festival. Brazil's sugar production is almost over, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production is at a high level, the growth rate has slowed down. The domestic sugar supply is under pressure, but the international price increase may drive the Zhengzhou sugar price up in the short term, with a long - term bottom - oscillating trend [29][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The external market prices of soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the export decline narrowed. The geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel policy have an impact on the market. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the oil price is expected to be oscillating strongly [35][36][37]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn price rose. The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn and short the 05 corn lightly at high prices [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is declining, but the short - term decline may be limited. It is advisable to go long on the 05 contract in small quantities [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to go long on dips lightly for the 05 peanut [43][45]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. It is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [46][48]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal speed is acceptable, and the fruit price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and conduct long 5 and short 10 arbitrage [49][50][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market price of cotton declined. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to increase. The domestic cotton market has certain support, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [52][53][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The total inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the overall fundamentals weakened. The steel price is expected to be oscillating weakly. It is recommended to short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mines are gradually resuming production. The international and domestic coal markets need to be monitored. The coking coal price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [59][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys has strong support. It is advisable to go long on dips as a long - term position [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The overseas gold and silver markets showed a trend of first falling and then rising. Geopolitical risks, the risk of US economic stagflation, and trade policy uncertainties support the price. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the 5 - day moving average [67][68][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical and macro factors support the price of precious metals. It is advisable to go long on platinum on dips and wait and see for palladium [70][71]. - **Copper**: The US tariff is expected to decline in the short term but may exist in the long term. The copper price is supported in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips [73][74]. - **Alumina**: The decline in the supply - side operating rate supports the spot price. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [76][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The tariff disturbance does not change the supply - demand support pattern. The aluminum price is expected to be oscillating strongly [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate strongly [83][87]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance. The price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [88][89][90]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance and go long on dips lightly [91][92]. - **Nickel**: The market is dominated by macro factors. The low - position long - term positions can be held [93][94][95]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is advisable to buy on sufficient pullbacks [96][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories. The price may rebound in the short term [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The industry is trying to maintain prices. It is advisable to seize low - price opportunities [100][102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is good, and the price is at a high level. It is necessary to operate cautiously [103][105]. - **Tin**: The concern about AI has increased. The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro policies [107][108][109]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is weak. The demand is declining, and the supply is changing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and stop profits on the 6 - 10 positive spread on rallies [110][111][112]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and conduct positive spread arbitrage [114][115]. - **Asphalt**: It is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply gap after the holiday. It is advisable to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips [116][117]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur supply is increasing, and the low - sulfur near - end is strengthening. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating [119][120][121]. - **LPG**: The international market is strong, and the domestic market is expected to be oscillating strongly [123][124][125]. - **Natural Gas**: The market trading theme changes frequently. It is advisable to exit the TTF or JKM positions and hold the HH short positions for the second quarter [126][127]. - **PX & PTA**: The geopolitical situation has increased the cost. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions [129][130]. - **BZ & EB**: The fundamentals of styrene are weakening. The price is expected to be oscillating and consolidating [131][132]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. The price is expected to be oscillating within a range [133][134]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [135][136]. - **Bottle Chips**: The spot supply is decreasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [137]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand support is acceptable. It is advisable to hold long positions [139]. - **Plastics and PP**: The L contract warehouse receipts are flat, and the PP contract warehouse receipts are accumulating. It is advisable to wait and see for the L 2605 contract and short the PP 2605 contract lightly [140][141][142]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is necessary to wait and see [143][144]. - **PVC**: The price is mainly oscillating. It is advisable to go long on dips [146][147][148]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is expected to rise first and then fall. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [150][151][154]. - **Glass**: The price is running weakly. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [153][154]. - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitics, the price is expected to be strongly oscillating [156][157]. - **Urea**: The price is rising strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread [159][160][161]. - **Pulp**: The US dollar quotation is rising, but the high inventory restricts the rebound. It is advisable to wait and see and conduct range trading [162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market rebound is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies [166]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of work after the holiday. It is advisable for aggressive investors to go long in small quantities [168][170]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The external market is strengthening. It is advisable to wait and see for the RU 05 contract and hold the short position for the NR 04 contract [171][173][174]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts accumulated significantly before the holiday. It is advisable to wait and see for the BR 04 contract [175][177].

2月24日，A股马年首个交易日大幅高开，国证自由现金流指数强势上行涨超2.5%，成分股白银有色、 富瑞特装、烽火通信等领涨。相关ETF方面，同类规模最大的自由现金流ETF（159201）近9天获得连 续资金净流入，合计"吸金"17.32亿元。自由现金流ETF最新份额达106.27亿份，最新规模达138.39亿 元。 自由现金流策略带来价值投资新范式，其既具有红利资产的特点，有能力为投资者带来直接的现金回 报，还决定了股息的可持续性和规模，是企业股息支付的基石。相关ETF方面，自由现金流ETF （159201）以全A为样本，前三大行业分别为汽车、石油石化和有色金属，整体市值偏大盘；现金流 500ETF（560120）以中证500为样本，前三大行业分别为有色金属、基础化工和钢铁，整体市值更偏中 小盘。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 天风证券团队认为，历史上节后小盘成长风格通常占优，今年这一规律可能仍会显现，但强度或受制于 两大因素：一是在产业主线景气度确凿的背景下，大盘成长可能同步走强；二是"高股息"资产作为长期 底仓的配置逻辑依然坚固，节后风格可能是"成长与红利共舞"，而非简单的完全切换。 ...

文字早评 2026/02/24 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美伊冲突走向愈加悲观，伊朗石油储量为全球第三并控制霍尔木兹海峡，多位分析师预测油价将大 幅上涨； 2、国内 AI 大模型与机器人借春晚实现全民出圈，京东等平台销量数据更是提供了业绩验证； 3、人民币汇率强势升值至 6.89 区间，股债汇三市联动向好，外资回流趋势确立； 4、荣耀将推出首款人形机器人，聚焦消费市场；SK 海力士 DRAM 及 NAND 库存仅剩约 4 周，今年所有客 户的需求都无法得到完全满足。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/9.13%/10.00%/6.60%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/3.80%/10.30%/7.40%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/2.46%/14.22%/10.51%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/6.02%/3.43%/3.89%。 期，据此计算，单日净投放 1135 亿元。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好、美国关税政策反转释放外需预期的背景下，叠加人民币汇率强势升 值带动外资流入、大模型发布潮与机器人出圈，股指有望先迎来一波偏强表现。 ...

（来源：河北新闻网） 转自：河北新闻网 河北永洋特钢集团有限公司董事长杜庆申 专班贴心服务，企业发展信心足 这座交接场由河北永洋特钢集团有限公司（简称"永洋特钢"）投资6.5亿元建设，建成后不仅可降低企业铁矿石等原料的运输成本，还可服务于永年区众多 紧固件生产企业。据了解，项目预计今年10月底投入运营。 "整个项目工程铺轨总长度约10公里，施工需要对接国铁集团北京局等单位，单靠企业自己很难高效推进。"永洋特钢董事长杜庆申介绍，邯郸市永年区成立 了由区发改局牵头的工作专班，项目前期的备案、环评等手续全部由工作专班帮办代办，企业不用为各类手续操心，大大加快了项目建设进度。此外，邯郸 市政府还牵头实行钢铁企业大宗物资集采集运，为企业降低了采购和物流成本。 作为一家以生产合金结构钢、弹簧钢、优质碳素结构钢为主的特钢企业，近年来，永洋特钢坚持深耕特钢细分赛道，逐步发展成为全国规模最大、品种最 多、规格最全的轻轨、重轨、矿山专用型材生产基地。其中，轻轨产品国内市场占有率达75%，工业重轨和起重机轨国内市场占有率超60%。 尽管产品市场占有率较高，但近年来永洋特钢也面临市场竞争加剧、产品附加值有待提升等问题。为推动钢铁产品 ...

据中国钢铁工业协会会长赵民革介绍，2022年底启动的"钢铁行业能效标杆三年行动"成为节能降碳与降 本增效的核心抓手，143家培育企业高炉、转炉能耗比2023年分别下降2.5%、12.2%，两个工序两年累 计节能1320万吨标煤，减排二氧化碳3400万吨。 记者日前从中国钢铁工业协会获悉，截至2025年底，我国钢铁行业超低排放改造工程圆满收官，80%以 上粗钢产能实现超低排放。 此外，我国钢铁行业绿色低碳发展能力不断跃升。宝武富氢碳循环氧气高炉商业示范项目、湛江钢铁近 零碳工厂、中国钢研纯氢竖炉示范线等前沿低碳冶金技术示范项目相继落地，我国低碳冶金技术创新应 用进入世界第一方阵。 ...

2月24日，大中矿业涨6.5%，截至发稿，报36.68元/股，成交6990.59万元，换手率0.15%，总市值562.33 亿元。大中矿业股价已经连续6天上涨，区间累计涨幅21.74%。 鹏华国证钢铁行业指数(LOF)A（502023）成立日期2015年8月13日，最新规模3.4亿。今年以来收益 2.91%，同类排名3343/5580；近一年收益29.28%，同类排名2115/4297；成立以来收益37.22%。 鹏华国证钢铁行业指数(LOF)A（502023）基金经理为闫冬。 资料显示，大中矿业股份有限公司位于内蒙古自治区包头市黄河大街55号，成立日期1999年10月29日， 上市日期2021年5月10日，公司主营业务涉及铁矿石采选、铁精粉和球团的生产销售以及机制砂石的加 工销售。主营业务收入构成为：铁精粉71.07%，球团20.48%，硫酸4.58%，砂石2.73%，其他0.81%，锌 精粉0.32%，锂矿石0.02%。 截至发稿，闫冬累计任职时间6年345天，现任基金资产总规模217.96亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 456.3%， 任职期间最差基金回报-41.27%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 声明：市场有 ...

奋斗在传统产业、新兴产业和未来产业一线 春节我在岗，为产业向新向优作贡献 钢坯火红，映照传统产业提质升级的进程；绿电聚合，显现新兴产业成长壮大的澎湃动能；人形机器人 身姿灵动，是未来产业加速培育的生动写照……"十五五"开局之年，春天里，让我们透过3个镜头，观 察现代化产业体系建设的稳健步伐，感受劳动者的奋斗热情。 ——编 者 辽宁本钢板材 镜头一：非常规钢生产不断突破设计产能 2月22日一早，不到7点半，辽宁本溪本钢板材热连轧厂2300生产作业区作业长耿明璐已在工作岗位。 参加班组班前会、查看轧制计划、明确重点品种生产要点……春节假期值班，工作一如往常。"热轧工 序上游连着炼钢，下游连着冷轧，必须保持稳定生产。"耿明璐说。 隆隆声中，烧得通红的钢坯从加热炉中送出，经过粗轧、精轧、冷却、卷取等流程，变成用于生产管线 钢、汽车板、高强钢等产品的钢卷。 作业区温度有30多摄氏度，一圈走下来，耿明璐的额头渗出细密的汗珠。"生产主要通过机房远程操 控，但现场跟踪仍必不可少。"耿明璐解释，"遇到信号波动、带钢轧破甩尾等不稳定情况时，现场人员 可以第一时间发现情况、降低损失。" 2025年，耿明璐带领班组成功突破28毫米超 ...

耿明璐正在对生产线进行点检巡视。 李 娜摄（人民视觉） 于哲仑在监控室内监测数据。 张子墨摄（人民视觉） 宇树科技机器人在进行训练。 宇树科技供图 精益求精的辛劳，换来产品下线时的成就感。"这条产线生产的产品，90%以上是非常规钢种，用在重 大工程建设、新能源汽车产业等领域。"耿明璐语带自豪。 通过技术创新、流程优化，2300生产作业区不断突破设计产能。2025年，作业区年产突破600万吨。新 的一年，耿明璐充满期待："我们正在着手智慧工厂建设，未来将实现整条产线的集中控制，产品产量 和质量有望再提升。" 钢坯火红，映照传统产业提质升级的进程；绿电聚合，显现新兴产业成长壮大的澎湃动能；人形机器人 身姿灵动，是未来产业加速培育的生动写照……"十五五"开局之年，春天里，让我们透过3个镜头，观 察现代化产业体系建设的稳健步伐，感受劳动者的奋斗热情。 ——编 者 辽宁本钢板材 镜头一：非常规钢生产不断突破设计产能 2月22日一早，不到7点半，辽宁本溪本钢板材热连轧厂2300生产作业区作业长耿明璐已在工作岗位。 参加班组班前会、查看轧制计划、明确重点品种生产要点……春节假期值班，工作一如往常。"热轧工 序上游连着炼钢， ...