累库趋势未见放缓， 期价加速下行 氧化铝月报 2025/12/05 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 目录 01 月度评估 月度评估 04 供给端 要点小结 02 期现端 05 进出口 03 原料端 06 需求端 07 库存 铝土矿 氧化铝 电解铝（95%） 拜耳法 2.5:1 铝线缆 铝型材 铝板带 烧碱 铝箔 上游 中游 初端 终端 陶瓷、钢化 玻璃、化工 （5%） 电解法 1.925:1 铝合金 其他 建筑 （25%） 交通运输 （25%） 电力电子 （25%） 机械设备 （12%） 其他 （13%） ◆ 期货价格：期货价格方面，截至12月5日，氧化铝指数较10月31日价格累计下跌7.36%至2607元/吨。产量高位、过期仓单交割困境、库存居高不下、矿价下跌多重因素驱动氧化铝 期价本月加速下行。11月中上旬氧化铝期价仍维持宽幅震荡，但在临近12月交割时，基本面各因素短期难以反转叠加过期仓单交割困难，期价于11月底开始迅速下探。展望后市， 关注矿企成 ...

01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 供应偏紧，铝价震荡走强 铝月报 2025/12/05 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 04 成本端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止11月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4422万吨（建成产能4578万吨），行业开工率月度环比维稳；11月电解铝 产量环比减少2.8%、同比增长1.5%，预计12月运行产能环比小幅增加，铝水比例预计延续小幅下滑。 ◆ 库存&现货：11月末铝锭现货库存录得59万吨，月环比下降1.5万吨。12月初库存增加。保税区库存录得6.1万吨，月环比下降0.7万吨。铝棒 库存合计14.4万吨，月环比下降0.9万吨。LME全球铝库存录得53.8万吨，环比减少1.6万吨，处于往年同期低位。11月末国内华东铝锭现货 贴水于期货35元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M贴水26美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：2025年10月中国原铝进口量为24.8万吨，环比增加1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Aluminum Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association highlighted the current state and future direction of the aluminum industry, emphasizing the need for innovation, green transformation, and international cooperation to ensure sustainable development [2][3][6]. Group 1: Meeting Overview - The fourth council meeting of the Aluminum Branch was held in Kunming, Yunnan, with participation from various industry leaders and companies [2][3]. - The meeting summarized the work of the branch's secretariat over the past year and made adjustments to leadership positions and member units [3][36]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The aluminum industry is characterized by high resource dependence, accelerated overseas expansion, deepening green transformation, enhanced trade resilience, and overall improved efficiency since 2025 [6][37]. - Key areas for high-quality development in the aluminum industry include resource security, alumina reform, maintaining the electrolytic aluminum ceiling, extending aluminum processing, promoting green low-carbon manufacturing, expanding aluminum applications, enhancing international cooperation, and strengthening industry self-discipline [6][37]. Group 3: Recommendations and Future Directions - Recommendations for the industry's future include strengthening policy research, deepening innovation in services, promoting technological advancements, and fostering industry self-discipline [6][37]. - The new chairman of the Aluminum Branch emphasized the importance of aligning with national strategies, building cooperative platforms, and enhancing collaboration within the industry to achieve a strong aluminum sector [11][43]. Group 4: Company Highlights - Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. has developed into a leading green aluminum supplier with significant production capacities, including 1.6 million tons of bauxite and 1.4 million tons of alumina [20][52]. - The company aims to become a benchmark for green aluminum enterprises through low-carbon transformation and technological innovation [20][52]. Group 5: Technical Reports - The meeting featured reports from experts on the current state and future trends of alumina and electrolytic aluminum technology, highlighting the need for innovation and development in these areas [24][56].

12月5日云铝股份大宗交易一览 | 成交量 | 成交金 | 成交价 | 相对当日收 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万 | 额（万 | 格 | 盘折溢价 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | | | | | | | | 国元证券股份有限公司深圳 | 国元证券股份有限公司深圳 | | 8.00 | 200.00 | 25.00 | -11.69 | 深南大道中国凤凰大厦营业 | 深南大道中国凤凰大厦营业 | | | | | | 部 | 部 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，云铝股份今日收盘价为28.31元，上涨5.95%，日换手率为1.82%，成交额为 17.65亿元，全天主力资金净流入3683.79万元，近5日该股累计上涨14.62%，近5日资金合计净流入2.08 亿元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为10.06亿元，近5日增加4143.51万元，增幅为4.29%。 据天眼查APP显示，云南铝业股份有限公司成立于1998年03月20日，注册资本346795.7405万人民币。 （ ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed stability in early trading, but experienced a significant rally in the afternoon driven by non-bank sectors, particularly insurance and brokerage stocks, despite weakness in AI hardware stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The trading sentiment in the A-share market improved significantly, with the Fujian sector continuing to rise, indicating a willingness among speculative funds to buy [2]. - The insurance sector, represented by China Ping An, and brokerage stocks, represented by Zhongyin Securities, saw substantial increases, leading to a rapid rise in major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index [2][3]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies holding stocks in the CSI 300 and the CSI Low Volatility 100 indices, from 0.3 to 0.27 for holdings over three years, which is expected to expand the investment scale of insurance funds in A-shares [3]. Group 3: Trading Volume and Activity - A-share market trading volume reached 1.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 176.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day, reflecting a more than 10% rise in trading activity [4]. - The number of stocks with gains exceeding 9% in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets surpassed one hundred, indicating heightened individual stock activity [4]. Group 4: Investment Themes - The main investment themes are diversifying, with brokerage stocks expected to remain active due to ongoing consolidation news and optimistic earnings forecasts [5]. - Resource stocks have begun to show activity, with copper and aluminum stocks breaking out of previous trading ranges, and gold stocks also becoming active [5]. - Other sectors such as commercial aerospace, food and beverage, and real estate are anticipated to attract incremental capital due to positive performance expectations and new policy developments [5].

库存方面，截至12月4日，铝坯加铝锭(Aluminum Ingot)总库存为87.8万公吨，按周下降1%，同比上升 3%。库存水平较2021年同期低，但较2022至24同期高。期内消耗量按周下降，但水平仍高于2022至 2024年同期。 在物料行业中，该行较偏好铝，其后依次为铜、电池、黄金、电池材料、煤炭、水泥及钢铁。股份方 面，该行首选中国宏桥(01378)、中国铝业（601600）(02600,601600.SH)、紫金矿业（601899） (02899,601899.SH)和宁德时代（300750）(300750.SZ)，目标价分别为36港元、12.41港元/14.77元人民 币、39港元/35.5元人民币，及571元人民币。 花旗发布研报称，行业数据显示，今年11月27日至12月3日期间，中国铝总产量为85.6万公吨，按周持 平，同比上升3%，当中铝坯(Aluminum Billet)产量为36.2万公吨，按周持平，同比上升7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum stocks strengthened towards the end of trading, with notable increases in shares of China Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao, driven by favorable macroeconomic sentiment and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Aluminum (02600) rose by 5.77% to HKD 11.74 - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) increased by 3.69% to HKD 44.94 - China Hongqiao (01378) gained 1.94% to HKD 33.64 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, the largest drop since March 2023, which was significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 10,000 jobs - This data has heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 3: Aluminum Market Dynamics - Recent aluminum price increases were influenced by the performance of silver and copper - Long-term support for aluminum prices is expected due to constrained supply and low inventory levels - Despite December being a traditional off-peak season for consumption, demand remains resilient without significant declines [1] Group 4: Supply Outlook - Global aluminum supply growth is expected to remain limited, maintaining a "tight balance" in the market - A key risk factor is Indonesia's aluminum production capacity, which is being developed due to low-cost coal power and bauxite resources, although the scale of reliable power supply for new capacity remains uncertain [1]

库存方面，截至12月4日，铝坯加铝锭(Aluminum Ingot)总库存为87.8万公吨，按周下降1%，同比上升 3%。库存水平较2021年同期低，但较2022至24同期高。期内消耗量按周下降，但水平仍高于2022至 2024年同期。 在物料行业中，该行较偏好铝，其后依次为铜、电池、黄金、电池材料、煤炭、水泥及钢铁。股份方 面，该行首选中国宏桥(01378) 、中国铝业(02600,601600.SH)、紫金矿业(02899,601899.SH)和宁德时代 (300750.SZ)，目标价分别为36港元、12.41港元/14.77元人民币、39港元/35.5元人民币，及571元人民 币。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，行业数据显示，今年11月27日至12月3日期间，中国铝总产量为 85.6万公吨，按周持平，同比上升3%，当中铝坯(Aluminum Billet)产量为36.2万公吨，按周持平，同比 上升7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum stocks strengthened in the late trading session, driven by positive macroeconomic sentiment and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Aluminum (601600) rose by 5.77% to HKD 11.74 - Nanshan Aluminum (600219) increased by 3.69% to HKD 44.94 - China Hongqiao (01378) gained 1.94% to HKD 33.64 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, marking the largest decline since March 2023, which was significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 10,000 jobs [1] - This data has heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 3: Aluminum Market Dynamics - Recent aluminum price increases were influenced by the performance of silver and copper [1] - Long-term supply constraints and low inventory levels provide substantial support for aluminum prices [1] - Despite December being a traditional off-peak consumption season, demand remains resilient without significant declines [1] Group 4: Supply Outlook - Global aluminum supply growth is expected to remain constrained, keeping the market in a "tight balance" in the long term [1] - A key risk factor is Indonesia's aluminum production capacity, which is being developed due to low-cost coal power and bauxite resources, although the scale of new capacity remains uncertain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market recently witnessed the largest IPO in the industrial metals sector in three years, with Innovation Industry Group Co., Ltd. (02788.HK) officially listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, led by Shandong aluminum tycoon Cui Lixin [2][3] Group 1: IPO Details - Innovation Industry's IPO is among the top ten largest in Hong Kong this year and the largest in the industrial metals sector since 2022 [3] - The cornerstone investor list includes China Hongqiao Group, which subscribed for $30 million, signaling strong regional industrial collaboration [3][21] - The IPO attracted 17 cornerstone investors, raising approximately $351 million [21] Group 2: Company Background - Cui Lixin, a 56-year-old entrepreneur, is the chairman of Shandong Innovation Group and the actual controller of the A-share listed company Innovation New Materials [5][6] - Shandong Innovation Group employs over 20,000 people and ranked 330th in the 2024 China Top 500 Enterprises, with annual sales exceeding 120 billion yuan [7] Group 3: Business Operations - Innovation Industry focuses on the upstream aluminum industry chain, including alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting, with operations in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, and Binzhou, Shandong [10][11] - The electrolytic aluminum smelting plant in Hohhot is projected to be the fourth largest in North China by 2024, while the alumina refining plant in Binzhou benefits from strategic logistics advantages [11][14] Group 4: Financial Performance - Innovation Industry's revenue increased from 13.49 billion yuan in 2022 to 15.16 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit rising from 913 million yuan to 2.63 billion yuan [15] Group 5: Client Relationships - Innovation New Materials, controlled by Cui Lixin, is the largest customer of Innovation Industry, accounting for 78.8% and 76.6% of total revenue in 2023 and 2024, respectively [16][17] - The strategic proximity of Innovation New Materials' new production base to Innovation Industry's facilities enhances operational efficiency [18][20] Group 6: Industry Collaboration - The collaboration between local aluminum industry giants, such as Innovation Industry and China Hongqiao, highlights the synergy within the regional aluminum supply chain [21][22] - The listing marks a new phase for Shandong Innovation Group, transitioning to a dual-platform strategy with both A-share and H-share listings [22]