证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250512 地方国企债券融资都去哪了？ ——项目投资由基建地产转向科创 2025 年 05 月 12 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 刘子博 执业证书：S0600524120014 liuzb@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《美国 4 月 CPI 前瞻：开始验收关税 冲击幅度》 2025-05-11 《特别国债发行前置或推升 4 月社融 增速》 2025-05-11 东吴证券研究所 1 / 10 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 2024 年我国地方国资委监管企业完成固定资产投资 7 万亿元，同比增 长 4.2%，增速高于全国平均水平 1 个百分点。面对日趋复杂的国内外 经济环境，2025 年多省国资委发文强调属地国企要继续发挥经济增长 的压舱石作用。因此，我们通过拆解 6044 只 2025 年 1-4 月及上年同期 地方国企公募发行信用债的募集资金用途，归纳总结地方国企投资的重 点投向变化。 ◼ 一、地方国企 ...

本周更新本周更新工程机械销量、中短期票据收益率、利率、汇率、专项债数据，如需更详细的数据请与我们联 系。 【数据库分类】 财通证券建筑建材组从宏观和微观角度对建筑行业公开信息进行整理，并汇总成为建筑行业数据库。 宏观数据：对影响建筑行业的宏观层面时间序列数据进行跟踪，旗下包括GDP&财政收支、原材料&人工成本、固 定资产投资、融资&汇率&利率、社零 【本周更新】 财通证券建筑建材组从宏观和微观角度对建筑行业公开信息进行整理，并汇总成为建筑行业数据库。 【本周更新】 宏观数据：对影响建筑行业的宏观层面时间序列数据进行跟踪，旗下包括GDP&财政收支、原材料&人工成本、固 定资产投资、融资&汇率&利率、社零情况。 订单库：按照建筑公司性质及其所处板块分类汇集订单数据跟踪，旗下包括央企汇总、工程咨询、基建、房建、 装饰、国际工程、化学工程、专业工程、钢结构、园林。 本周更新本周更新工程机械销量、中短期票据收益率、利率、汇率、专项债数据，如需更详细的数据请与我们联 系。 【数据库分类】 ...

Group 1 - The development index for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China was reported at 89.2 in April, a slight decrease of 0.3 points from March, following a significant rise in the first quarter [1] - Among the sub-indices, 1 increased while 7 decreased, with 2 industry indices rising and 6 falling, indicating mixed performance across sectors [1] - The regional indices for SMEs showed declines across all areas, with the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions reporting indices of 90.2, 89.5, 88.8, and 81.2 respectively, all lower than in March [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic sentiment index, comprehensive operation index, market index, funding index, labor index, input index, and efficiency index all saw declines compared to March, with decreases ranging from 0.2 to 0.9 points [1] - The cost index shifted from a decrease to an increase, rising by 0.1 points from March, indicating a fluctuation in the economic environment for SMEs [1] - The real estate and wholesale retail sectors experienced a slight recovery, each increasing by 0.1 points compared to March, while other sectors like industry, construction, transportation, social services, information transmission software, and accommodation and catering saw declines [1] Group 3 - The executive vice president of the China SME Association emphasized the need to implement recent policies from the Central Political Bureau, including enhancing domestic market demand and providing support for private SMEs [2] - The government is encouraged to strengthen assistance for private SMEs to build resilience and create favorable conditions for stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [2]

关注纤维素产品的国产替代逻辑演绎 核心观点 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 本周 CS 建筑上涨 2.23%，沪深 300 上涨 2.09%，建筑跑赢大盘 0.14%。中小 市值转型标的涨幅居前，建筑央国企中，四川路桥、中国核建取得较好收 益。近期纤维素相关产品价格显著拉涨，关注国产替代逻辑带来的业绩及 估值催化，重点推荐三维化学。资金层面来看，25 年 1-4 月专项债密集发 行，建议关注后续基建实物工作量的转化节奏。顺周期层面，我们认为 25 年或为煤化工项目落地大年，预计有望获得政策加码支持。新兴业务板块， 建议继续关注与算力、IDC 等相关的投资机会，以及部分中小市值建筑公司 的转型机遇，主题层面建议继续关注西南水电及国际工程相关品种。 建筑装饰 证券研究报告 关注纤维素及其衍生物的国产替代进展 CA（醋酸纤维素）：是用于生产烟草过滤嘴的原材料，全球约 90%以上的醋 酸纤维素用于生产烟用二醋酸纤维素丝束，我国年均消耗 30 万吨，宜宾纸 业持股 67%的四川普什在二醋片及三醋片的生产方面具备领先优势。 CAB（醋酸丁酸纤维素）、CAP（醋酸丙酸纤维素）：物理性质和用途基本 相似，主要用作涂料添加剂。价格 ...

建筑装饰 基金经理薪酬与基准强挂钩下，建筑板块哪些标的有望获增配？ 本周核心观点：本周证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，着 力推动基金公司从"重规模"向"重回报"转变，其中规定公募基金经理 薪酬与基准强挂钩，预计主动权益类基金经理为了避免产品业绩低于基准 过多而对绩效薪酬产生较大负面影响，将尽可能让持仓结构贴近基准，持 仓结构变化有望带来市场结构性投资机会。基于基金 2024 年报数据，有 4020 个主动权益基金基准中包含沪深 300 指数，这些基金的基准中沪深 300 指数平均权重 61%。我们假设主动权益类基金按照规模的 90%去配 置基准（假设后续基准不变），则合计将配置沪深 300 指数 1.65 万亿元， 而主动权益类基金合计持有沪深 300 成份股市值 1.34 万亿元，因此可测 算后续主动权益类基金需增配沪深 300 指数 3036 亿元。主动权益类基 金对建筑板块持股比例为 0.71%，显著欠配，如后续主动权益基金规模的 90%按照基准及沪深 300 中建筑板块权重来配置，合计带来建筑板块资金 增配规模为 218 亿元（约占建筑沪深 300 标的自由流通盘市值的 6.5%）。重点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development index for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China decreased to 89.2 in April, down 0.3 points from March, indicating a slight decline after a significant rise in the first quarter [1] Sub-item Index Summary - The sub-item indices show 1 increase and 7 decreases, with the funding index and labor index remaining above the critical value of 100. The macroeconomic sentiment index, comprehensive operation index, market index, funding index, labor index, input index, and efficiency index all decreased by 0.9, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.2 points respectively compared to the previous month. The cost index shifted from decline to increase, rising by 0.1 points, indicating a fluctuation in the SME prosperity level [1] Industry Index Summary - In April, the real estate and wholesale retail industries saw a reversal, each increasing by 0.1 points compared to the previous month. Conversely, the industrial, construction, transportation, social services, information transmission software, and accommodation and catering industries decreased by 0.6, 0.3, 0.6, 0.3, 0.6, and 0.3 points respectively. The overall industry performance showed mixed results, with a still unstable foundation for recovery [1] Regional Index Summary - In April, the development indices for SMEs in the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions were 90.2, 89.5, 88.8, and 81.2 respectively, reflecting decreases of 0.1, 0.5, 0.2, and 0.2 points from the previous month [1]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月07日 一季度建筑行业盈利承压，建材行业有望迎接盈利修复拐点。一季度地方财 政紧张导致基建实物工作量落地放缓，地产需求疲软进一步拖累房建业务； 重点城市二手房成交量温和复苏，但工程端需求受房地产持续低迷影响仍然 疲软。建筑行业整体承压，2024 年建筑板块营收同比-3.8%，归母净利润同 比-14.1%，新签订单同比显著下滑；水泥行业加强供给调控实现价格温和回 升，叠加动力煤价格下跌，行业盈利有所改善；玻纤持续结构性复价带来盈 利同比大幅修复；玻璃整体仍处于大部分亏损，行业供给调节静待供需修复。 重点板块数据跟踪： 1）水泥：本周全国水泥价格环比下跌 0.8%。辽宁、吉林涨 10-30 元/ 吨，华东、中南跌 10-40 元/吨。四月底降雨减少，需求略升，水泥企 业出货率 49.5%，环比增 2 个百分点。因需求偏弱及企业促销，价格持 续回落。预计后期价格将弱势震荡，因核心地区仍在协商错峰生产。2） 玻璃：本周玻璃市场整体偏弱运行。浮法玻璃成交清淡，价格持稳，日 熔量微降 600 吨；纯碱价格上涨 2.1%，节后或试探性提价。光伏玻璃价 格普降，2.0mm 镀膜跌至 13.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the construction and decoration sector [5][4] Core Insights - The construction industry is experiencing pressure on revenue and profits, with major listed companies achieving operating revenue of 8.18 trillion yuan in 2024, down 3.70% year-on-year, and a net profit of 168.4 billion yuan, down 14.6% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, operating revenue was 1.84 trillion yuan, down 6.13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 44.5 billion yuan, down 8.78% year-on-year [3][4] - The industry’s gross margin remained relatively stable, while net profit margin declined. The gross margin for 2024 was 10.9%, unchanged from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 2.06%, down 0.26 percentage points year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 9.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 2.42%, down 0.07 percentage points [12][3] - Operating cash flow has deteriorated, with a net cash flow of 106.8 billion yuan in 2024, down 62 billion yuan year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the net cash flow was -421.1 billion yuan, an increase in outflow of 10.9 billion yuan year-on-year [4][18] - The industry’s return on equity (ROE) decreased, with an overall ROE of 4.93% in 2024, down 1.16 percentage points year-on-year, and 1.29% in Q1 2025, down 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [22][4] Summary by Sections 1. Financial Overview of Listed Companies - The construction industry faced revenue and profit pressures in 2024, with significant declines in both metrics due to local government debt pressures and a downturn in the real estate sector [11][4] 2. ROE Analysis - The industry ROE declined, with a notable drop in central state-owned enterprises, while private enterprises showed some improvement [22][4] 3. Growth Analysis - Revenue growth slowed, with a decline in prepayments for central state-owned enterprises indicating a challenging investment environment [11][4] 4. Cash Flow Analysis - The industry experienced weakened operating cash flow, with significant outflows in Q1 2025, necessitating attention to future debt resolution and fiscal funding [18][4] 5. Market Perception - The report suggests that the market underestimates the investment opportunities in the construction and real estate sectors, emphasizing the potential for renovation and infrastructure projects [6][4]

昨天两市三大指数全线上涨，上证指数收涨0.80%，深证成指收涨0.22%，创业板指收涨0.51%。沪、深、北交所合计成交量15053亿元。方向上，通用航 空、农业等行业概念涨幅靠前。（数据来源：Wind，截至2025.05.07，过往数据不预示未来） 昨日盘前，市场迎来重磅的利好消息。5月7日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会，央行发布了三类共10项具体宏观货币政策，其中包括： 降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；下调政策利率0.1个百分点；下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点；降低 个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点；增加3000亿元科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度。（资料来源：中国基金报，2025.05.07） 消息一出，A股三大指数集体高开，金融、地产、科技等板块应声上涨，截至收盘，全市场成交额扩大至1.5万亿元，场外资金加速回流。 虽然今年以来央行多次提及"择机降准降息"，但此次发布会的政策力度较大，除了降准、降息之外，还发布一系列积极政策，一定程度上超出了市场预 期。 面对这场年内空前的流动性释放，部分投资者还是难免疑惑：降准降息等政策对股市有何影响？今天我们就来好好 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The new financial policy package was launched, focusing on immediate liquidity support and long-term institutional arrangements, with expectations for more policies to follow, particularly in fiscal expansion and domestic demand stabilization [4] - The environmental industry faced challenges in 2024, with a total revenue of 348.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, and a net profit of 13.8 billion yuan, down 37.7% [5] - The chemical sector is seeing accelerated penetration of robotic tendon ropes, with significant market potential projected for humanoid robots, expected to reach a market size of 10 trillion yuan by 2045 [7][8] Group 2: Company Performance - Longfan Environmental reported a decline in overall profitability in 2024, but Q1 2025 showed a net profit increase of 4.1% due to reduced production costs and increased investment income [5] - Lixun Precision's revenue is projected to reach 317.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%, and a net profit of 16.9 billion yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [12] - Nanwei Medical achieved a revenue of 2.755 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.26%, with a net profit of 553 million yuan, up 13.85% [18] - Weisi Medical's Q1 2025 revenue showed a recovery with a 9.4% increase, and a net profit growth of 52.71% compared to the previous year [20] - Shanghai Construction's net profit is expected to reach 1.83 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant growth rate of 39% in Q4 2024 [21] - China Nuclear Engineering's net profit is projected to grow steadily, reaching 2.32 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 13% [23] Group 3: Industry Trends - The retail sector is experiencing a transformation with new store formats and an upgrade in consumer spending in lower-tier markets, as seen in the case of Jiangsu Xinghua's "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" [15][16] - The AI-driven light connection market is expanding, with Taicheng Light's Q1 2025 revenue growing by 66% year-on-year, indicating strong demand for high-density connection products [24] - Jiadu Technology reported a significant revenue increase of 106.3% in Q1 2025, driven by advancements in AI applications in transportation [26]