Core Insights - Emerging markets are experiencing significant concerns among asset managers due to overcrowded trades, particularly in Brazilian real and AI-related stocks, leading to warnings of an inevitable pullback [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has seen a nearly 30% increase this year, marking the longest consecutive monthly rise in over two decades, with potential for the best annual performance since 2017 [2][5] - Historical lessons indicate that after significant gains, such as in 2017, emerging markets can face sharp declines due to factors like hawkish Federal Reserve policies and trade conflicts [5] Market Performance - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen approximately 30% year-to-date, with expectations for the best annual performance since 2017 [2] - A tracking indicator for emerging market local currency bonds is on track for its best returns in six years, with 61% of surveyed investors net overweighting these bonds [5] Investor Sentiment - Investors are showing excessive optimism towards emerging markets, with warnings from analysts that a market correction is likely due to high valuations not reflecting underlying risks [1][5] - A significant portion of investors (61%) are now net overweighting emerging market local currency bonds, a stark contrast to a negative sentiment just a few months prior [5] Regional Insights - Asian technology stocks have faced severe sell-offs, with the Korean Kospi index experiencing a drop of over 6% in a single trading day, highlighting the risks associated with extreme valuations [6][7] - The Brazilian real has seen a return of approximately 30% this year, but concerns about overcrowded positions and fiscal worries are emerging [9][10] Currency and Bond Markets - Currency arbitrage trades, particularly in the Brazilian real, are under pressure as market sentiment shifts towards bearish positions [9] - The Hungarian forint has delivered a 27% return in dollar arbitrage trades, but potential political changes could impact future performance [10] Liquidity Concerns - Frontier markets have benefited from capital outflows from U.S. assets, but warnings are being issued regarding potential liquidity risks in markets like Egypt and Ghana during periods of heightened volatility [10]

债券交易员正严阵以待，准备迎接即将到来的数据洪流，这些数据将明确市场对于美联储将以多快速度 继续降息的预期，而正是这种降息预期，推动美国国债创下了自2020年以来的最大涨幅。 美国政府停摆的结束意味着，各机构将开始发布自10月初以来被推迟的关键报告，其中包括将于本周四 公布的9月非农就业报告。 在停摆期间，官方数据的缺失使得外界难以判断经济走向。不过，来自私营数据源（如薪资处理公司 ADP）的数据持续凸显了就业市场的疲软，正是这种疲软促使美联储在9月和10月的会议上降低了基准 利率，结束了长达九个月的暂停期。 但风险在于，政府公布的数据可能会出人意料地向好，显示企业新增就业的速度超过预期。此外，数据 也可能因停摆而变得不完整或失真。 由于政策制定者仍对高企的通胀保持警惕，这可能导致他们在12月10日的会议上维持利率不变，或打压 市场对2026年的降息预期。 "随着经济数据开始陆续公布，劳动力市场有可能展现出更强的稳定性，"摩根大通投资管理的投资组合 经理Priya Misra表示。"那么市场可能会进一步降低对12月降息的押注，波动性也可能随之上升。" 但美联储主席鲍威尔已表示，央行近期的举措主要是预防性措施， ...

Core Insights - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has returned approximately 6.7% year-to-date, potentially marking its best annual performance since 2020 [1][2] - Optimism regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has overshadowed concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit, leading to positive market expectations for U.S. Treasuries [1][2] - Despite the positive outlook, analysts warn of potential threats to the current bond rally, including uncertainties surrounding Fed rate cuts and the impact of government data releases [1][4] Group 1: Market Performance - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which includes U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade corporate bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities, has shown a return of 6.7% this year, significantly outperforming short-term U.S. Treasuries [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently closed at 4.147%, down nearly 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a decline in yields amid investor concerns about fiscal prospects [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming October FOMC meeting, although there are significant internal divisions among officials regarding the direction of monetary policy [3] - The likelihood of a rate cut in December remains uncertain, with current employment and inflation trends showing no significant changes [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Investors are currently optimistic about locking in higher yields from U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds, despite the yields being higher than most of the past decade [3] - Concerns persist regarding the U.S. government's budget deficit, projected at $1.8 trillion for fiscal year 2025, which could pressure the bond market [4] - The spread between investment-grade corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to 0.72 percentage points, the lowest since the late 1990s, raising concerns about potential overvaluation and risk in the corporate bond market [5]

Group 1 - The CEO of Schroders, Richard Oldfield, believes that there is an excessive concentration of funds in a few stocks in both US and Chinese markets, yet both markets remain promising [1] - The AI concept is expected to further drive profit growth for other companies, with a significant increase in liquidity for Chinese stocks [1] - By 2026, profit growth for Chinese enterprises is anticipated to become more widespread due to AI applications [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to be quite active in 2025, attracting renewed interest from overseas investors in Chinese stocks [1] - Oldfield observes that foreign capital is re-entering China without a significant outflow of funds from the US dollar market, indicating that the rebound in Chinese stocks is largely due to cash that has been parked for a long time returning to the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The macro environment is favorable for risk assets in the upcoming 6 to 18 months, supported by three main factors: healthy consumer balance sheets, expectations of gradual monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [1][2]. Macro Environment - The overall macro outlook for 2026 remains positive for risk assets, driven by healthy consumer and household balance sheets, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and sustained effects of fiscal stimulus [2]. - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a temporary slowdown in Q4 2023 but is projected to accelerate again in 2024, returning to long-term trend levels, creating a conducive environment for risk assets [2]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The multi-asset team at Morgan Asset Management adopts a diversified approach in stock allocation, favoring large-cap stocks with stable cash flows, particularly in the communications and technology sectors reflecting AI themes [3]. - Outside the U.S., Japan and emerging markets, especially Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities due to fiscal stimulus and improved corporate governance [3][4]. Focus on China - The multi-asset team has been increasingly focusing on the Chinese stock market (A-shares + Hong Kong stocks) since early 2023, viewing it as a reasonable valuation alternative to the U.S. market, with positive macroeconomic and policy developments [4][5]. - The investment perspective on the Chinese stock market is medium to long-term (6 to 18 months), emphasizing that it is part of a broader global or Asia-Pacific stock portfolio rather than a short-term trading opportunity [5]. Risk Management - The current high market valuations may lead to increased volatility, making risk management and volatility control equally important as pursuing returns [5]. - Despite high valuations, the low leverage and default rates of domestic companies, along with manageable refinancing pressures, provide a solid foundation for the market [5].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 上海国泰海通证券资产管理有限公司客服电话：95521 四、风险提示 本公司依照恪尽职守、诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利，也不 保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现。投资者投资于本公司基金时应认真阅读相关基金 合同、招募说明书、基金产品资料概要及其更新等信息披露文件，全面认识基金的风险收益特征和产品 特性，并充分考虑自身的风险承受能力，理性判断市场，谨慎做出投资决策，并自行承担投资风险。 为更好地满足投资者的投资需求，上海国泰海通证券资产管理有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）决定，自 2025年11月17日（含）起（具体截止日期另行公告），对本公司旗下国泰海通中证同业存单AAA指数7 天持有期证券投资基金（以下简称"国泰海通中证同业存单AAA指数7天持有"）的销售服务费率实施优 惠费率。具体情况如下： 一、适用基金及费率优惠方案 ■ 二、重要提示 上述优惠活动方案如发生变化，本公司将另行公告，敬请投资者留意。 三、投资者可通过以下途径咨询有关情况： 上海国泰海通证券资产管理有限公司网址：www.gthtzg.com 特此公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index has experienced a significant valuation recovery this year, driven by a global rebalancing of funds towards non-US markets and asset revaluation led by industry narratives [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index's decline was influenced by multiple factors, including a strong US dollar cycle that suppressed emerging market asset valuations [1] - With the weakening of the US dollar and emerging uncertainties, there has been a trend of global fund reallocation towards non-US assets, boosting emerging markets [1] - As of October 2023, the proportion of overseas active funds allocated to the Chinese market has risen to 7.2% [1] Group 2: Valuation Insights - The current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is above historical averages, positioned at 1.5 to 1.7 standard deviations above the mean, indicating potential short-term pullback pressure [2] - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be around 10.6 times by the end of 2024, with a risk premium above the 90th percentile historically, suggesting a high safety margin [1] Group 3: Capital Flows - There has been a strong inflow of southbound funds, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan as of November 12, 2023 [2] - The daily trading volume of southbound funds in the Hong Kong main board has significantly increased, reaching nearly 40% at its peak, and currently stabilizing around 30% [2] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market include the AI industry chain, the optimization of competition in the internet sector, and the recovery of demand in certain consumer segments [3] - The manufacturing sector is expected to maintain its advantages, with breakthroughs in key technologies and long-term value in high-end manufacturing and hard technology sectors [3] - The healthcare industry is seeing improved policy environments, enhancing competitiveness and growth potential in the biopharmaceutical sector [3] - The chemical and raw materials industries are experiencing a recovery in profit expectations, making related companies' performance worth monitoring [3] - There may be a rotation of capital from high-dividend sectors like telecommunications and utilities towards cyclical and growth assets [3]

Economic Outlook - Hong Kong's economy is expected to maintain moderate growth, with GDP growth projected to reach around 3.5% in 2026 [1][15] - From 2025 to 2029, the economy is anticipated to sustain a growth rate of approximately 3%, significantly higher than developed economies in Europe and the US, which are below 2% [15] Financial Stability - Hong Kong's financial system remains robust amid global economic uncertainties, supported by a stable institutional framework and healthy fiscal conditions [1][19] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened multiple times to maintain exchange rate stability, which has increased market liquidity [2] Trade Dynamics - Hong Kong's overall export value decreased by 7.8% in 2023 but is expected to rebound with an 8.7% growth in 2024, indicating a recovery in external demand [7] - By the first nine months of 2025, exports continued to rise, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [7] Service Sector Growth - The service trade structure is optimizing, with financial, professional services, and high-end logistics expanding under policy guidance [10] - Increased demand for high-end services from mainland China is providing new external markets for Hong Kong's service exports [10] Internal Support Mechanisms - The government's budget aims to consolidate recovery momentum and enhance development capabilities, with GDP growth of 3.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [11][19] - Private consumption and fixed capital formation are showing positive growth, contributing to the overall economic recovery [11] Innovation and Industrial Upgrading - The government is accelerating re-industrialization and innovation through funding and support for advanced manufacturing and research projects [22] - Hong Kong is enhancing its role as a hub for cross-border private wealth management and hedge funds, with a growing venture capital ecosystem [22] Green Finance Initiatives - The government has issued approximately 240 billion HKD (about 31 billion USD) in green bonds, establishing a key pricing benchmark in the market [23] - The expansion of green finance is enhancing Hong Kong's financial system's resilience and international influence [23] Spatial Economic Development - The Northern Metropolis development strategy aims to create a diverse industrial system, integrating innovation, high-end services, and education [24] - This initiative is expected to foster a complete ecosystem from R&D to high-end manufacturing, promoting long-term growth [24]

Core Insights - The recent volatility in gold prices, with a peak of 1004 CNY per gram followed by a drop to 894 CNY, highlights the risks of chasing market trends and the emotional toll on investors [1][3][10] - Many investors tend to invest all their capital in a single asset, leading to significant losses during downturns, as seen in the recent gold price fluctuations [3][5] - The importance of asset allocation is emphasized, suggesting that diversifying investments across different asset classes can mitigate risks and reduce emotional stress during market volatility [5][9] Investment Behavior - Investors often react to market news and peer performance, leading to impulsive buying at high prices and subsequent panic selling at lows [3][10] - The tendency to invest all funds in one asset class can amplify losses, as demonstrated by the 11% maximum loss on a 10,000 CNY investment in gold during the recent downturn [5][7] Asset Allocation Strategy - A recommended strategy is to allocate only a portion of total capital to gold (e.g., 10%), while diversifying the remainder into bonds and stocks to stabilize overall portfolio performance [5][9] - Historical data suggests that a balanced portfolio with 12% in stocks and 88% in bonds can effectively manage risk and reduce anxiety during market fluctuations [7][9] Long-term Perspective - Long-term asset allocation strategies are likely to yield better returns compared to short-term trading strategies, which can lead to inconsistent performance [7][10] - The psychological benefits of a stable investment portfolio, which allows for less daily monitoring and anxiety, are highlighted as a significant advantage of proper asset allocation [9][10]

近年来，随着中国资本市场对外开放的稳步推进，越来越多外资机构加码布局中国股市。立足当下，外资如何理解中国市场，又将怎样把握中国机遇？带着一系 列问题，券商中国记者日前对毕盛资产创始人、董事长兼首席策略官王国辉进行了专访。 毕盛资产（APS Asset Management Pte Ltd,简称"APS"）是一家新加坡资管机构，专注全球股票投资，公司成立已满30年。作为毕盛的掌门人，王国辉更是一名行业 老法师，他拥有44年投资经验，曾任花旗信托日本公司首席投资官、花旗银行香港分行高级基金经理及GIC（新加坡政府投资公司）高级投资官。 对于投资中国，王国辉和他带领的团队有着坚定信念和长期实践，这背后是毕盛"基于信念投资"的核心哲学。2020年，毕盛果断关闭泛亚与日本地区产品，逆势All in中国，极少外资管理人能有如此笃定的立场。在王国辉看来，中国资本市场虽然仍处发展初期，但长期向好趋势明确。而中国资产在全球投资组合中，迟早会占 据至关重要的位置。 毕盛资产创始人、董事长兼首席策略官 王国辉 形象地说，我们的研究流程会依次戴上四顶"专业帽子"：首顶是"福尔摩斯帽"，聚焦法务、会计等维度的尽职调查；第二顶是"郭鹤年 ...